kathleen hays has remarks from john williams and richard claret jug. it seems the narrative -- richard clara debt. it seems the narrative is the fed can't wait to cut. >> he called the speech living life in the zero lower bound. this is about the fact the fed has its key rate at 2.5%. if things get bad, you are awfully close to zero. rates quickly cut when they see a stimulus need rising. he said the lesson with the zero bound is to take swift action. he said there is no advantage keeping your powder try. john williams also talking about inflations and inflation expectations, but this was a strong message to send, and no doubt he knows exactly what impact this could have. let's look at the impact on the 2-year note, the short end of the treasury yield curve. you can see that yield down to 1.74%. the past few days, it was nearly 1.9%, a swift response. people are wondering what the fed might do. john williams got his message across today. paul: william spoke on the same that the gauge of u.s. manufacturing search. retail sales coming in strong. so what

is aber, john williams leading academic expert on monetary policy. he has written a lot of interesting stuff. when he was at the san francisco fed, he tended to talk a lot about his research. sometimes it was not clear if he was talking about it as an academic or policymaker good that is what just happened again -- policymaker. that is what just happened again. you want tosaying be more aggressive than normal. i think it is important for john williams now that he is president of the new york fed and at the core of the committee, he has to think of himself purely as a policymaker. vonnie: does it illustrate what his academic findings are? if he wants to be more aggressive and thinks this is the right way to be, wouldn't this be a particularly perfect time in the economy to try it out? ethan: and that is right, but what does aggressive mean? research -- is just read one of his papers to confirm this. when they talk about being super aggressive, they are talking when there is the threat of a recession or deflation, not a slowdown related to this slow-mo

. >>> comments, melissa, from the federal reserve bank of new york president john william speaking at the central bank research association in new york today. in those prepared comments he talks a little bit about what he views interest rate policy should be when you are at near zero interest rates. the headlines from this he believes, john williams, already known as a dove on the street, perhaps even more dovish today saying they should keep interest rates lower for long er, that central banks should take swift action against adverse conditions and make best use of their tools. one of the things he mentions specifically in the context of his remarks is that the key lessons, keep interest rates lower for longer and adapt monetary policies in the context of low natural rates of interest and zero lower zlb those comments dovish from a very big dove on the new york fed. tyler, back to you >> let's resume our conversation on netflix larry, jump into the conversation here. you are no fan of netflix. why? >> no. i think it's all about the cash. they burn $3 billion of cash you pay $150 bill

stocks were trading lower yesterday until we heard comments from new york fed president john williams. he said the fed needed to act quickly when the economy was slowing and rates were low in a speech he also said it's better to take preventive measures than wait for disaster to unfold. stocks jumped on that news as investors started to bet on a bigger rate cut at the fomc meeting. notably the new york fed is now trying to cool that speculation. a spokesman said williams was drawing from academic research and not hinting at potential policy actions joining me now is the founder of end pra n entrepreneur shares. this pullback was notable from the new york fed saying don't read into it then we saw comments from clarida on fox basically echoing what we heard from williams. how do you read into this? is citi right to already say we're changing our fed call. we think it would be 50 basis points >> for a while we were looking at 25 to 50 basis points 50 basis points is on the horizon and there was a hint that a couple members of the fed were discussing doing more we have to remember this is

the new york fed president john williams and vice chair richard clarida says don't wait for the economy to enter a downturn before cutting rates. the new york fed walked back the comments. the latest in the great rate debate. and an interview with robert strayer, about how the u.s. is trying to win the battle for 5g. day as wetoric remember the 50th anniversary of apollo 11 landing on the moon. a look at how far we have, and how virtual-reality could help nasa kickstart new journeys. flat on the s&p 500. will we make it back to 3000? the dow is happily sitting on a quarter of a percentage point gain. the nasdaq up just four points. also looking at microsoft. it was one of those earnings reports that pleased analysts and investors. the stock was higher for the session, up 1.4%. cloud services really helping microsoft. they may have also been a pull forward of hardware. we will have to see if that is where we saw the trade impact. could be record levels of stocks playing into this next number. that is the university of michigan sentiment index. u.s. consumer sentiment now at levels not se

your compatriot, john williams, just making news. what do you make of his comments? >> let's talk about where we are right now. the u.s. economy is in a good place. we have a solid growth rate. we have a strong labor market. inflation is stable. but uncertainties about that outlook have increased. we talked about that. the global economy's slowing, business investment has been soft. there are disinflationary head winds abroad and these uncertainties are something we talked about in our june meeting, we will talk about them again in july. what we said is that we will act as appropriate to make sure we're doing what we can to sustain a strong economy and stable inflation near our target. liz: i'm going to try and break you away from -- >> keep trying. liz: i want more detail. four weeks ago, after that june meeting, you publicly said that the case for the fed to step in and provide accommodation or rate cut had increased. today, sitting here now four weeks later, has that case been strengthened or weakened? >> i think from my perspective, liz, the reality is that the e

we heard that from john williams last week. they need to get in there and create enough stimulus that inflation expectations go up a lot. jonathan: i'm not sure what we heard from john williams last week after the walk back. we can talk about that later maybe. coming up on the program, the auction block. pepsico delivering the riches high bond yield in 2019 and investors could not get enough. this is bloomberg "real yield." jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg "real yield." let's go to the auction block in the treasury market where investors shied away from the seven-year treasury auction. $32 billion offering resulted in the lowest bid to cover ratio. pepsico deliver the richest high-grade bond yield in 2019. investors could not get enough $32 interest growing to the billion size. in europe, expectations for new ecb stimulus fueling investor appetite. priced to yield, 3.5%. let's take in the eurozone, where mayor draghi painted a gloomy outlook for the european economy. speaking, you have resilience in the service s

fed president john williams takes to the podium yesterday, strongly hints the fed would cut 50 basis points at its next meeting at the end of july he says, quote, don't keep our powder dry, that is move more quickly to add monetary stimulus than you otherwise might he goes on to cite research and says the key lessons from this research hold today, and i'm emphasizing that today, and in the future take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions markets heard the new york fed president winking, nodding and otherwise telling them that the fed would cut 50 basis points. here are the probabilities a 100% chance of a rate cut in july which you can divide into two pieces right now it's a 57 chance of a 45 but yesterday after these comments they shot up to 60% not too long after that, however, we get act two. the new york fed says in the comments that williams comments were academic and, quote, not about potential policy actions at the upcoming meeting. end quote. we need a frame for the face that becky just made when i made that >> when i saw that last night, i've never heard

we heard that from john williams last week. they need to get in there and create enough stimulus that inflation expectations go up a lot. jonathan: i'm not sure what we heard from john williams last week after the walk back. we can talk about that later maybe. coming up on the program, the auction block. pepsico delivering the richest high bond yield in 2019 and investors could not get enough. that conversation is coming up. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg "real yield." i would like to head to the auction block in the treasury market where investors shied away from the seven-year treasury auction. $32 billion offering resulted in the lowest bid to cover ratio since february 2016. pepsico deliver the richest high-grade bond yield in 2019. investors could not get enough with interest growing to the $32 billion size. in europe, expectations for new ecb stimulus fueling investor appetite. priced to yield, 3.5%. let's take in the eurozone, where ecb president mario draghi painted a

richard clarida and john williams say policymakers need to act quickly if the u.s. economy. this has reinforced that the fed will cut rates as much as 50 basis points. the u.s. and china have spoken for the second time since they called a truce. trade teams spoke over the phone, but there are no details on what was discussed. president trump reiterated he could impose additional tariffs on china if he wants. a deal on the u.s. budget and raising the debt ceiling are very close. that is according to steven mnuchin. he says the administration and congressional democrats have agreed on spending levels. this paves the way for a deal before, was these town for the summer. president trump has distanced himself from a "send her back" chant focused on congresswoman ilhan omar. the president says he was not happy when he heard the chant and felt badly about it. inflation fell again in june hitting a two year low. it has pressure to increase policy stimulus. consumer prices including fresh food rose by 0.6% from a year earlier. inflation has not topped 1% since 2015. global news, 24 h

we heard that from john williams last week. they need to get in there and create enough stimulus that inflation expectations go up a lot. jonathan: i'm not sure what we heard from john williams last week after the walk back. we can talk about that later maybe. coming up on the program, the auction block. pepsico delivering the riches t high bond yield in 2019 and investors could not get enough. that conversation is coming up. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg "real yield." i would like to head to the auction block in the treasury market where investors shied away from the seven-year treasury auction. $32 billion offering resulted in the lowest bid to cover ratio. since february 2016. pepsico deliver the richest high-grade bond yield in 2019. investors could not get enough with interest growing to the $32 billion size. in europe, expectations for new ecb stimulus fueling investor appetite. priced to yield, 3.5%. let's take in the eurozone, where ecb president mario draghi painted

it was the number two, number three, clarida and john williams from the new york fed talking about needing to do more prevention. they said central banks should act quickly when they see signs of troubles. the new york fed had to say that is not really signaling anything. don't put too much truth into it but markets, taking off. recovering losses we saw yesterday, up 1.5%. taiwan, having a good one. here in hong kong, we are close to 300 points up at the get-go. dollar on the back foot. we saw one of the biggest drops for the dollar after those comments from steve mnuchin when it came to the fact the u.s. may be keeping its fx policy as for now. those three words dropped the dollar, although we are paring back a little in the asian session. the japanese yen, still seeing weakness. lows approaching the 2019 when it comes to the yen. commodities, copper in focus. up 2% on fed comments. when it comes to the bond market, we are watching yields tumble lower. south korea, 30 year down close to 10 basis points. a surprise cut from the be ok yesterday. inflationown on their forecasts and we saw a

i think we heard that from john williams last week. they are prepared to do that. they need to get in there and create enough stimulus that inflation expectations do go up a lot. jonathan: in the end, i'm not sure what we heard from john williams last week after the walk back. we can talk about that later maybe. marilyn watson, bob michael, and george for a -- george bory. coming up on the program, the auction block. pepsico delivering the richest high bond yield in 2019 and investors could not get enough. that conversation is coming up next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg "real yield." i would like to head to the auction block now, beginning right here in the united states over in the treasury market, where investors shied away from the seven-year treasury auction. the $32 billion offering resulted in the lowest bid to cover ratio since february 2016. incorporates, pepsico delivered -- in corporate's, pepsico delivered the richest high-grade bond yield in 2019. investors could not get enough with interest growin

kathleen hays is here with remarks from john williams and richard clarida. that theto be narrative stays the same. we want those rate cuts. kathleen: let's start with john williams. a three-dayg off conference at columbia university. he was talking about living life zero lower bound. when rates are so close to zero, how should you conduct policy? one thing he said is the fed should cut rates quickly when you see the stimulus need arising. he also said there's no advantage in keeping your powder dry. the markets here that. this is the number three guy at the fed. they move. justhort end of the curve, five days ago, we were up nearly to 1.9% on the 2-year note. going down, yield the price going up. so it seems to most people that you do not give a speech like that if you are not trying to tell people something. i think because the market move was so dynamic and so many people jump to the conclusion that he meant to signal something, maybe he is setting this range. maybe not. the new york fed put out the following statement. this was an academic speech on 20 ye

i think we heard that from john williams last week. they are prepared to do that. they need to get in there and create enough stimulus that inflation expectations do go up a lot. jonathan: in the end i am not sure what we heard from john williams last week after the walk back. everyone sticking with us. coming up on the program, the auction block. the richest high-grade bond deal of 2019 and investors could not enough. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg "real yield." i would like to go to the auction block now, beginning right here in the united states in the treasury market where investors shied away from the seven-year treasury auction. $32 billion offering resulted in the$32 billion offering resulted in the lowest bid to cover ratio february 2016. pepsico delivered the richest high-grade bond yield in 2019. investors could not get enough with interest growing to the $32 billion deal size. in europe, expectations for new ecb stimulus fueling investor appetite for high-yield, interim maybe upsizing its seven-year de

williams tanzania. john mcafee was elects a president off tanzania in 2015 and his rule newspapers have been closed and generalists harassed and threatened with death i mean there is disappearances already trending on twitter and the hash tag free eric of india one user quoted u.s. president thomas jefferson saying our liberty depends on the freedom of the press and that cannot be limited without being lost i'm joined now by own a small in whom what national coordinator of tanzania human rights defenders coalition he's coming to us from doris and i'm welcome to deja vu africa tell us more about who eric that india is and why the all for it is would want him in custody. issue i'm aware are a long time problem and this gives the only see him in the country he has been reporting 2000000 houses in from the media and also recently you have been writing a lot on what is not in tandem you know. it will about school days a lot of the article explaining. what is happening probably especially when they're all in

the president tweeting today in part i like new york fed president john williams first statement much better than his second statement his first statement is 100% correct in that the fed raised too fast and too early steve liesman joining us now with fresh. >> let's do this one by one. fresh fed speak first. >> thank you. >> speaking at the same conference where william spoke yesterday turned up that dust said moments ago the fed needs to follow through on what he said was a promise made to markets made in june. >> we didn't ease at the june meeting but signals were that we were highly likely to ease at the july meetingso now that's all been priced. >> the right amount of cut, not 50 the fed could revisit more cuts in the months ahead. that the item one. item two, he thought the controversial comments made by the new york fed president were more about academic research than about current economic policy in remarks that marcus took to a 50-day on the way, williams said research shows quote don't keep your power dry that is michael vick moore quicd monetary than you otherwise might. not

it started out as an odd day then john williams dropped a huge dovish egg, new york fed president. interday notes are down two basis points 2016 for tens, fourth quarter 2016 and today we've had three sessions close under 2%, july 2nd, 3rd and half day on july 4th. we're only a couple of basis points away now. finally the dollar index also getting hurt and when it comes to stocks, dr. john williams, the fed president of new york, wrote a big prescription of easing frank collins seems like the nasdaq just loved it. >> that's going to finish slightly higher today after closing slightly lower nasdaq 100 was apple, getting a boost from a raymond james upgrade, 5g iphone releases, apply materials, leading the semi conductors. qualcomm an outlier. and anti-trust fine in europe. amazon, along with microsoft, is trading lower today, following reports that president trump is, quote, unquote, looking into a $10 billion for web services that both are vying for. netflix having the worst impact on nasdaq 100. now over to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> we had a spike in gold late

john williams said don't wait to cut. new york said has to lock that williams speech. rosenkranz clarified the blackout window approaches. more earnings, less volatility, less clarity, more volatility. investors take a look at companies in 2019. volatility the lowest in five quarters. unleashing faucets. results for the public company, aboutwhat he is saying ipo. david: we continue to wait for more earnings coming up. in the meantime, it is hot. alix: in here it is cool but it is actually really hot. coming up, you can search under temperature and this is how hot it is going to get in the u.s. the wetter it gets, the harder it is. in new york, temperatures will soar. plays's are moving higher and if you want to go for cooler weather david, you could go to mexico. david: ironic. alix: the blackout the other day? this could be huge. david: do you want to take a train? a beat on revenue. share, earnings per $1.64 compared to $1.61. we had numbers in the pacific. becomes, question because what we learn from csx is -- did better because of their operation efficiency. dore i

vice chairman richard clarida data and chief john williams boosted u.s. stocks with dovish comments, reinforcing the fact that the fed could cut this month as much as have a percentage point. new pressure on the bank of japan to boost monetary stimulus , the key inflation gauge falling to a two-year low. excluding fresh fruit, prices rising to tens of 1% in the last months -- 2/10 of 1% and the last months. boeing is paying for the grounded 737 max 8, preparing to account an accounting charge as a concession for airlines who have had to line up replacement planes. the grounding is reaching its fifth month. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. hurtado.ana this is bloomberg. tom: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, they continued lift in equities, futures up, dow futures up 69. we will see where and we get to the opening. stronger a churn, dollar. vix, 13.05. the 10 year yield was 2.09% yesterday. euro-swissie with a really interesting grind, stronger

louis fed repeated he is in favor of a 25 basis point cut a day after john williams seemed to be saying he was on board for a 50 basis point cut. new york had to clarify he wasn't talking about the present time. these are all hanging over the market going into a fresh trading week. how are things in asia? sophie: a frustrating week. with $250n friday billion in market cap, futures looking next and kiwi stocks going to extend gains. news to consider, with obvious election victory and -- for shinzo abe's election victory and protests in hong kong. the philippine president will deliver his state of the nation address and we will get export data from taiwan and south korea and moving into earnings season with big names reporting in japan and south korea. for china the spotlight is on a new tech board that will for -- that will see the first debut monday. a busy start of trading. paul: for more on the shanghai tech board and the rest of the first word news, let's get over to tom mackenzie. thank you. china's new nasdaq style tech for debuts later, a year after xi jinping discussed this. the

highern futures point following comments from john williams even after the new york fed tried to tone them down. >> aggressive policy, stocks get a boost. sellers deal. ab inbev of is selling carlton united for a $11 billion. and an ipo of its remaining asian unit is still in the cards. and a downed drone. oil snaps several days of losses after president trump says the u.s. has downed an iranian drone. matt, good morning. matt: we are less than 30 minutes away from cash trading across europe and in the u.k. take a look first at the 10 year yields. a big debate today about whether the fed rate cut, almost a foregone conclusion, will be 25 basis points or 50. as a result, the yield continues to come down. up a little bit today. still, if it is a 50 basis point cut, expect to see the yield fall further. look at futures. european equity index futures pointing up. dax futures gaining. cac and ftse gaining also. : the markets have faith in the original statements from william. the asian equity market getting a boost from officials despite the walk back. the market buying into the idea that

sounds like he's arguing for a bigger cut when john williams, the old john williams, not the new john williams. the fed raised and tightened to far and missed it big. don't miss it again. all right. >>> we'll continue this conversation right now more on the debt ceiling showdown we want to bring in your guests i want to ask both of you, landon, we'll start with you i anticipate that something will get done, we'll go up to the wire, will look like fireworks and we know how the movie ends, no. >> yeah, i think that's probably right. i continue to be a little skeptical that the big deal the so-called big deal, is going to get done i think it will be something shorter term i think everybody recognizes this is not something you want to play politics with given where the economy is it's not something you want to play politics with given both sides looking ahead to a presidential election and certainly benefits the president more to get this off the table through next november, create less uncertainty but you know, there's a lot of disagreement between republicans about whether, in fact, you

john williams speaking. friday, jim bullard and eric rosengren taking center stage alongside the bank of japan. still with me for final thoughts, mike schumacher, kathy jones, and matt hornbach. looking ahead to next week, what are we looking for? matthew: clearly looking at the data but it is not clear to me that really matters a lot to the fed at this point. i think they have made up their mind, or at least the consensus on the committee has. that ishe things worthwhile keeping your eyes peeled for our trade headlines. starting to see these headlines pop up late this week, with the president of the u.s. suggesting he was not quite happy with the fact that china has not continued to buy agricultural products as he thought they may have suggested in the g20. not over.conflict is it is ongoing. that is one of the things that is leading the fed down this path. jonathan: kathy, looking at the trade numbers from china, not pretty. imports from the u.s. down 31% year-over-year. is that going to be a sense of tens

john williams is speaking and friday, jim bullard and eric rosengren's taking center stage alongside the bank of japan kuroda. standing by with final thoughts, looking ahead to next week, what are you looking for? >> i think clearly we will be looking at the data. it is not clear that the matters a whole lot to the fed at this point. they have made up their minds or the consensus on the committee has. i would say one of the things that is worthwhile looking for our trade headlines. we started to see the headlines pop up late this week with the president of the u.s. suggesting he was not happy with the fact that china has not continued to why agricultural products as the he thought they may have as suggested during the g20. ,he trade conflict is not over it is ongoing. that is one of the things that is leading the fed down this path. >> looking at the trade numbers from china, really not pretty. the import from the u.s. down 31% year-over-year. is that going to be a source of tension in the coming months question mark >> sure. much of that is soybeans, agricultural goods that are grow

john williams speaking. friday, jim bullard and eric rosengren taking center stage alongside the bank of japan. still with me for final thoughts, mike schumacher, kathy jones, and matt hornbach. looking ahead to next week, what are we looking for? matthew: clearly looking at the data but it is not clear to me that really matters a lot to the fed at this point. i think they have made up their mind, or at least the consensus on the committee has. one of the things that is worthwhile keeping your eyes peeled for our trade headlines. starting to see these headlines pop up late this week, with the president of the u.s. suggesting he was not quite happy with the fact that china has not continued to buy agricultural products as he thought they may have suggested during the g20. the trade conflict is not over. it is ongoing. that is one of the things that is leading the fed down this path. jonathan: kathy, looking at the trade numbers from china, not pretty. imports from the u.s. down 31% year-over-year. is that goi

there on the screen is john williams, new york fed president. who also alluded to a rate cut but the st. louis federal reserve president believes it should have happened last time. he believes one should happen this time. in his mind of the trade uncertainties a global economic slowdown would cause to us have this rate cut. back to you. charles: thank you very much. joining me neil richardson, edward jones, mattie doppler, national taxpayers union and vision four funds vp heather zumarriaga. let me start with you. market got really excited, new york fed president williams talked about a research study. he didn't talk about tariffs or anything else. what he pointed out what is bothering the fed, if inflation gets stuck too low, below the 2% goal. people may expect it to stay that way, creating a feedback loop pushing inflation down over the longer term. i think they're worried about a deflationary death spiral. >> exactly. boil down to the words, we don't want to turn out to be japan which is in a very slow growth momentum. what the fed is trying

i know john williams' paper was titled the zero low rebound. it's fiction there is no zero lower bound in europe tomorrow they are pricing a 10 basis point cut in the ecb rate the ecb rate is minus 40 basis points if you let inflation expectations become unanchored, then you have to go through these extraordinary measures hopefully we don't get there >> rob, you have touched on exactly what i think the real thing to watch next week will be because i think universally, the majority of us are saying 25 basis points on the 31st however, i think it's -- what is the signal as far as is it a series of cuts that are coming our way. and if it's more walked back from that series of cuts, in other words, a cycle if you will if it's walked back from that, i think we can see a sharp sell-off, at least in the short term but as long as that door is still open to that series of cuts, i think it's going to be extremely positive even though we all agree it's not really the main driver for stocks it would be people's perception that the fed has their back and th

john williams speaking. friday, jim bullard and eric rosengren taking center stage alongside the bank of japan. still with me for final thoughts, mike schumacher, kathy jones, and matt hornbach. looking ahead to next week, what are we looking for? matthew: clearly looking at the data but it is not clear to me that really matters a lot to the fed at this point. i think they have made up their mind, or at least the consensus on the committee has. one of the things that is worthwhile keeping your eyes peeled for are trade headlines. starting to see these headlines pop up late this week, with the president of the u.s. suggesting he was not quite happy with the fact that china has not continued to buy agricultural products as he thought they may have suggested in the g20. you have to be attuned to this, the trade conflict is not over. it is ongoing. that is one of the things that is leading the fed down this path. jonathan: kathy, looking at the trade numbers from china, not pretty. imports from the u.s. down 31%

maria: john williams says it's better to get front of a disaster. let's make it big and significant. they did walk that back. does the economy need it? here we'll talk about 3.1 percent growth in the first quarter. 2.1 percent growth in the second quarter.now with the numbers and it would cut interest rates. >> right, the reason for that i think or what the rationale is, inflation is low and so let's make sure we can get ahead any potential challenge. the slowing of business investment. also out of the release was 1.8 percent core pc that's of the fed looks at for inflation. below the two percent target but not much below and it's only been rising. i think the real question is what is 25 business points going to do for me, the economy does not need more credit creation. the fed is pushing here. maria: a lot of comments about what this means. does the fed no more than we do? you know are things about to collapse? but then there's another stream of thought that's basically the fed has to keep up with the international central banks. you have europe st

john williams of the new york fed comes out and delivers a speech about living life in a lower bound. ahead of the blackout period for the federal reserve. the market runs up to the races, as you would expect it would. the vice chairman richard clarida follows up by pre-much saying, i agree with the speech from the new york fed president. and then the new york fed tries to walk it back and tells us it is purely academic. how on earth are we meant to interpret that as purely academic? gershon: here is what is going on. this is unprecedented in my career over the past 20 years. it is not that we have this framework we are working with and we have slight disagreement on what the next move should be. we are working with different frameworks. there are people in the fed who don't believe the philips curve matters anymore, or at least that it shouldn't be on a global basis. there are people that think we should pay attention to the global economy and not just the global economy and not just the u.s. economy. one very interesting thing i think, i was always in the camp that if the economy is

new york fed president john williams speaking. friday, fed presidents jim bullard and eric rosengren taking center stage alongside the bank of japan. still with me for final thoughts, mike schumacher, kathy jones, and matt hornbach. looking ahead to next week, what are you looking for? matthew: clearly, we will be looking at the data, but it is not clear to me that really matters a whole lot to the fed at this point. i think they have made up their mind, or at least the consensus on the committee has. but i would say one of the things that is worthwhile keeping your eyes peeled for are trade headlines. we are starting to see these headlines pop up late this week, with the president of the united states suggesting he was not quite happy with the fact that china has not continued to buy agricultural products as he thought they may have suggested during the g20. so you just have to be attuned to this. the trade conflict is not over. it is ongoing. that is one of the things that is leading the fed down this path. jonathan: kathy, look

john williams spoke in favor of rate cuts adding the central bank needed to, quote, act quickly when the economy was slowing. they meet on rate cuts at the end of the month. >>> it's already good season. looking to save bucks southern saving money. online shipping tax exempt during the days. the holiday starts today in alabama. the bulk of the holidays are set for the beginning of august. alaska, delaware, montana, new hampshire, oregon don't need a sales tax holiday. they don't have a samgs tax according to the sales tax organization ♪ i don't want to grow up, i'm a toys"r"us kid ♪ >> toys"r"us long awaited comeback is finally official. it will return to the return revenues. thm. true kid brands which spat it last october. they will open up. while you were sleeping the late show drove the point home. >> welcome back to wheel of misfortune. the puzzle is almost out. one letter missing. can you solve the prob puzzle? one letter. fire away, should be easy. trump is a ray blackist. we all know what it is. >> we're not going anywhere until someone says it. vanna, lock the door. nobod

john williams of the new york fed comes out and delivers a speech about living life in a lower bound ahead of the blackout period for the federal reserve. the market runs up to the races, as you would expect it would. the vice chairman richard clarida follows up by pretty much saying, i agree with the speech from the new york fed president. and then the new york fed tries to walk it back and tells us it is purely academic. how on earth are we meant to interpret that as purely academic? gershon: here is what is going on. this is really unprecedented, at least in my career over the past 20 years. it is not that we have this framework we are working with and we have some slight disagreements on what the next move should be. we are working with different frameworks. there are people in the fed who don't believe the philips curve matters anymore, or at least it should be on a global basis. there are people that think we should pay attention to the global economy and not just the u.s. economy. there is a debate about what is the neutral rate of inflation? one very interesting thing i think

williams or even for that other fed officials. two day of two year you could see the volatility, a little less volatility in the ten year but you do see towards the end of the session how the markets were a bit choppy. down 8 on the week on a ten year the dollar index regained its footing, was very firm one area that isn't firm is equities and nasdaq seems to be leading the charge down. >> yeah, microsoft really giving up all the gains after hitting an all time high following its earnings, a lot of the earnings movers are falling along where they fell. j.b. hunt extending gains from earlier in the week after beating netflix as the week's worst performer after disappointing subscriber numbers. chips are the standoff after a snl's better an expected numbers. head on over to seema. >> an intraday reversal for the major averages, we started the session in positive territory on growing kpeb takes of a fed rate cut. around 2:00 p.m. eastern reports of iran becoming a cause for concern that iran has seized a british oil tanker all averag

john williams also watching it. john, she mentioned romania there. they will be on theirfeet like mentioned romania there. they will be on their feet like they were on centre court. they public still chewing? they will be indeed, chris. aan chewing? they will be indeed, chris. a an astonishing performance from simona halep. the signs were there, certainly in that first set. wrapped up certainly in that first set. wrapped up injustii minutes, as certainly in that first set. wrapped up injust 11 minutes, as serena williams lost her two opening service game is, as simona halep raced to that early lead. much the same in the second. serena williams on reflection will point to a number of u nforced on reflection will point to a number of unforced errors. a total of 25 in that match. which would suggest, not only that simona halep played well, but that serena was off again. in a letter serena williams, she has not played a great deal of tennis, she went out early in the french open and did not play in any tournament before wimbledon. it'll all be about simo

fed vice-chairman richard clarida and john williams reinforcing that the central bank could cut interest rates by as much as 0.5% later this month. esther, what did you and commerzbank make of the comments from the u.s. federal reserve federal president this last time for hours? did it make a difference to market pricing and what you believe? esther: while we sought interest rate expectations to decline further, we do not think it make a fundamental change. the fed has already indicated they intend to cap interest rates at their july meeting. the big question for the u.s. market, will they continue to cut after the july meeting, or is it just a preemptive cut? to this extent, it did not give more insight. act indicated they want to early, but whether there are further steps coming is unclear. perhaps the more immediate impact on markets today is the ecb impact today and yesterday, we saw a big move in peripheral bonds. troubles in italy aside, we saw a little more movement in the bond market. what is the ecb's next move? esther: interestingly, the dovish comments on the fed might put pre

john williams has been working on the problem for 20 years. was a theoretical problem that it real one. he is deep into this and if you read the speech on its own, it is on the objectionable. mainstream thinking. the problem was that he did not make clear that he was talking situationtential where there is a serious economic downturn. he made it sound like it could be interpreted and was interpreted by the market as advice for what should be done today and that his work -- where he went wrong. >> there is a compelling argument he made here. i am going through donald trump's tweets. right now he is tweeting about kanye west but before that, he made an issue about the idea of rates relative to the ecb and the rest of the world. he said our interest costs are more -- higher than other countries when they should be lower. there is an idea that maybe the fed is moving in a direction we think it's going to move because other banks or other parts of the world are at a lower point. >> the fed it needs to set interest rates based on u.s. economic condi

kathleen: consider the number three man at the fed, john williams, president of the new york fed speaking today said, the argument for easy policy, actually a strength. an interesting backing up of jay powell's decision. the plot thickens. we have two other fed bank presidents not as ready as powell seems to be. consensus around jay powell? the richmond fed president speaking to michael reporters, theo fed does not need to step on the gas. however, when he looked at what jay powell said, he did not change the message for the june meeting. let's listen -- said the same thing yesterday he has said for the last month and we said in our last memo. we do not have forward guidance anymore the memo. we are watching carefully what is happening in the data. we are looking very much on upside risk and downside risk. at this point they are tilted to the downside which is why we are looking at it. another: let's bring in fed president. he played down the need for a rate hike as well. he said in fact that -- here it is. from an employment perspective, the economy performs in a positive way and the num

between richard clarida and john williams, two of the big three, in terms of fed speakers, they are saying we need to act preemptively and aggressively. you are close to the zero bound, you need to go hard and fast. it is starting to get people concerned that it will be 50 basis point cut. caroline: we have been hearing of the need for shock and awe that we might see from the 50 basis point cut. we asked someone earlier how much they see yields on the u.s. 10 year going. >> all the way down to zero. i think that's where we are headed over the next couple of years. we have had the recovery. it is coming to an end. now the central banks are falling into line and cutting rates. we saw overnight with the bank of korea. we have seen it in the bank of indonesia. you will see it at the end of the month with the fed. you may see it from the ecb sooner than people expect. we think at this point in the cycle, you need shock and awe. that is the journey we are on until something different happens. caroline: how much do we think the market is thinking that is where we are going. >> richard clarida sai