jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls friday, another sign the u.s. labor market remains resilient. china providing extra support for the economy, giving investor sentiment another boost, and chairman powell getting the final word ahead of the fed's next meeting. we begin with the big issue, a mixed payrolls. >> it is decent. >> data is not bad. >> a goldilocks number. >> the general picture is of a slowing economy. >> still well above what you would expect at this late cycle. >> fears about a u.s. recession are not showing in this report. >> very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. >> you have got higher wages, hours trending up. >> the labor market is holding in. >> we were worried about manufacturing hours worked and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. >> the jury is out in the manufacturing sector. >> uncertainty is on so many fronts. >> maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. >>

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. ♪ coming up, a fractured fed delivers another rate cut as trade talks between the u.s. and china resume. a little optimism driving junk-bond toward a fifth straight week of gains. yield hit 20-month lows. and the new york fed rolling out an old tool, funding markets signing some stability. we begin with the big issue. a fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. >> there is a lot of dissension in the ranks. a division 7-3. >> i am surprised bullard went as far as to dissent. >> there is a little bit of a split in the dots. >> there are honest differences of opinion in how vulnerable the u.s. economy is. >> on one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. >> you can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. >> on the other hand, you have the trade war, geopolitical risks. >> manufacturing is slowing down. >> capex spending lower. >> you will find more and more divisions in the committee. >> they w

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls friday, another sign the u.s. labor market remains resilient. china providing extra support for the economy, giving investor sentiment another boost, and chairman powell eating the final word ahead of the says next meeting. we begin with the big issue, a mixed payrolls. >> a goldilocks number. >> pretty good in the details. >> a slowing economy. >> still well above what you would expect at this late cycle. >> fears about a u.s. recession are not showing in this report. >> very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. >> higher wages. >> the labor market is holding in. >> we were worried about manufacturing and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. >> the jury is out in the manufacturing sector. >> maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. >> the question is where it goes from here. jonathan: joining me around the table, my guest. if the payroll report does

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro bloomberg "real yield " starts right now. up, a fractured fed delivers another rate cut as trade ties between the u.s. and china resume. optimism driving junk-bond toward a fifth straight week of gains. yield hit 20-month lows. the new york fed rolling out an old tool, funding markets signing some stability. a fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. >> a lot of dissension in the ranks. >> there is a little bit of a split in the dots. differenceshonest of opinion and how vulnerable the u.s. economy is. parts of hand, certain growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. >> you can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. >> on the other hand, you have trade war, geopolitical risks. capex spending is going down. >> you will find more and more divisions in the committee. joining me here in new york city, priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani. priya,egin with you, your thoughts on the potential of another rate cut before year's end? priya: we are looking for another rate cut in october. in

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. startsrg "real yield" right now. ♪ coming up, the market music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions often. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whips on a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting. >> we don't see recession coming right away. >> maybe august was that peak here. >> chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. >> maybe we are coming out of it. i think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. >> we are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. if you want the bull market to die, show me the recession. until you can produce it, you have got to take the over. >> no recession, central banks in play, markets outside, going into the fall, trade deal, upside. jonathan: another big week for treasury yields.

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls friday, another sign the u.s. labor market remains resilient. china providing extra support for the economy, giving investor sentiment another boost, and chairman powell eating the final word ahead of the says next meeting. we begin with the big issue, a mixed payrolls. >> a goldilocks number. >> pretty good in the details. >> a slowing economy. >> still well above what you would expect at this late cycle. >> fears about a u.s. recession are not showing in this report. >> very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. >> higher wages. >> the labor market is holding in. >> we were worried about manufacturing and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. >> the jury is out in the manufacturing sector. budding there are some signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. >> the question is where it goes from here. jonathan: joining me around the table, my guest. -- guests. if the payroll report do

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. [note] jonathan: coming up, payrolls friday, another sign the u.s. labor market remains resilient. china providing extra support for the economy, giving investor sentiment another boost, and chairman powell eating the final word ahead of the says next meeting. we begin with the big issue, a mixed payrolls. >> a goldilocks number. >> pretty good in the details. >> a slowing economy. >> still well above what you would expect at this late cycle. >> fears about a u.s. recession are not showing in this report. >> very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. >> higher wages. >> the labor market is holding in. >> we were worried about manufacturing and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. >> the jury is out in the manufacturing sector. >> maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. >> the question is where it goes from here. jonathan: joining me around the table, my guests. if the payroll report doesn't change what you sour carless of w

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the market music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions soften. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whipsoaring a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting. >> what you are seeing is a pricing out of recession risk. >> we don't see recession coming right away. >> maybe august was that peak here. >> chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. >> sentiment is bearish. >> maybe we are coming out of it. i think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. >> we are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. >> if we could just hold earnings, we get a reevaluation story. if you want the bull market to die, show me the recession. until you can produce it, you hav

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, investors looking to shake up drama and focus on the policy. on the front, where the white house is on limits on u.s. portfolio flows into china. and credit delivering a month of debt supply, cracks appear in the primary market. we begin with the big issue. focusing on the fundamentals and not the politics. >> the market is not waiting for anything from washington. >> the impeachment process, we will have to live through for months in a very divisive election. i would not focus on that in our investing activity. >> you can't trade this stuff right now. >> fundamentally, i don't think it centers a whole lot around he policy war. >> you almost have to ignore it and keep investing the way you would. >> we are focused on the fed, we are focused on the underlying fundamentals. >> for me, trade is the big thing. >> tariffs. >> the trade deal with china, the negative interest rates affecting the markets. >> what the market is focusing on st

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, investors looking to shake up drama and focus on the policy. on the trade front aware -- front, where the white house is on limits on u.s. portfolio flows into china. and credit delivering a month of debt supply, cracks appear in the primary market. we begin with the big issue. focusing on the fundamentals and not the politics. >> the market is not waiting for anything from washington. >> the impeachment process, we will have to live through for months in a very divisive election. i would not focus on that in our investing activity. >> you can't trade this stuff right now. >> fundamentally, i don't think it centers a whole lot around the policy war. >> you almost have to ignore it and keep investing the way you would. >> we are focused on the fed, we are focused on the underlying fundamentals. >> for me, trade is the big thing. >> tariffs. >> the trade deal with china, the negative interest rates affecting the markets. >> what the ma

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the market music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions often. -- soften. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whips on a whipsoaring a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting. >> what you are seeing is a pricing out of recession risk. >> we don't see recession coming right away. >> maybe august was that peak here. >> chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. >> sentiment is bearish. >> maybe we are coming out of it. i think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. >> we are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. >> if we could just hold earnings, we get a reevaluation story. if you want the bull market to die, show me the recession. until you ca

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield." now.rts right coming up, investors looking to shake up drama and focus on the policy. where the white house is way limits on u.s. portfolio flows into china. and credit delivering a month or month of debt supply, cracks appear in the primary market. we begin with a big issue. focusing on the fundamentals and not the politics. >> the market is not waiting for anything from washington. the impeachment process, we will have to live through four months. i would not focus on that in our investing activity. >> fundamentally, i don't think it alters a whole lot around water economic policies. >> you almost have to ignore it and keep investing the way you would. >> we are focused on the fed, underlying fundamentals. >> for me, trade is the number one thing. >> the trade deal with china, the negative interest rates affecting the markets. >> what the market is focusing on still, they would like to see some sort of resolution on trade. that will be important. jonathan: jo

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, a fractured fed delivers another rate cut as trade talks between the u.s. and china resume. optimism driving junk-bond s toward a fifth straight week of gains. yield hits 20-month lows. the new york fed rolling out an old tool, funding markets signing some stability. we begin with the big issue, a fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. >> a lot of dissension in the ranks. >> i am surprised bollard went as far as to dissent. >> there is a little bit of a split in the dots. >> they are honest differences of opinion and how vulnerable the u.s. economy is. >> on one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. >> the economy is doing well viewed -- well. you can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. >> on the other hand, you have trade war, geopolitical risks. capex spending is going down. >> the fed was too tight. >> you will find more and more divisions in the committee.

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ coming up, a fractured fed delivers another rate cut as trade ties between the u.s. and china resume. optimism driving junk-bond toward a fifth straight week of gains. yield hit 20-month lows. the new york fed rolling out an old tool, funding markets signing some stability. we begin with the big issue. a fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. >> a lot of dissension in the ranks. >> there is a little bit of a split in the dots. >> there are honest differences of opinion and how vulnerable the u.s. economy is. >> on one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. >> you can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. >> on the other hand, you have trade war, geopolitical risks. >> manufacturing is slowing down. >> capex spending is going down. >> you will find more and more divisions in the committee. >> they want to see more cuts by the fed. jonathan: joining me here in new york city, priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna mem

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the market music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions soften. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whipsoaring a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. let's begin with the big issue, shall we? things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting. >> what you are seeing is a pricing out of recession risk. >> we don't see recession coming right away. >> maybe august was that peak here. our code the fear trade a peaking. >> chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. >> sentiment is bearish. >> maybe we are coming out of it. i think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. >> we are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. >> if we could just hold earnings, we get a reevaluation story. if you want the

jonathan: from new york city, i for our viewersrs worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls friday, another sign the u.s. labor market remains resilient. china providing extra support for the economy, giving investor sentiment another boost, and chairman powell getting the final word ahead of the says next meeting. we begin with the big issue, a mixed reception for payrolls. >> a goldilocks number. >> pretty good in the details. >> a slowing economy. >> still well above what you would expect at this late cycle. >> fears about a u.s. recession are just not showing up in this report at all. >> very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. >> you got higher wages and hours trending up. >> the labor market is holding in. >> we were worried about manufacturing hours worked and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. >> the jury is out in the manufacturing sector. >> uncertainty is enormous on many fronts. >> maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. >>

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ coming up, closing out a chaotic august, following a big month for government bonds. growth anxiety lingering with another round of tariffs set to hit next month. president draghi left facing down the european central bank courts. we begin with the big issue, a month to month for government debt. >> you have had a significant rally. >> big rally. >> huge rally in the bond market. >> huge inflows, one-sided trades. >> insatiable demand for yield. >> the message is that things are slowing down. >> slowing down. >> growth is slowing everywhere. >> slowing global growth. >> the fed is not cutting fast enough to keep up with the falling growth outlook. >> they are actually behind the curve. >> likely to be behind the curve. >> the market is crying out for more. >> we are looking at extraordinary times in bond markets. jonathan: joining me from london is james athey. of aberdeen standard investments. in new york, greg staples, priya misra of td s

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the market mode music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions often. -- soft and. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whips on a -- whip soaring it one way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. let us begin with the big issues, shall we? things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> and love the theory. >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting. >> what you are seeing is the pricing out of recession risk. >> we don't see recession coming right away. >> maybe august was that peak fear. >> chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. >> sentiment is incredibly bearish. >> maybe we are coming out of it. i think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. >> we are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. >> if we could just hold earnings, we get

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, investors looking to shake off d.c. drama and focus on the policy. on the front, where the white house is on limits on u.s. portfolio flows into china. and credit delivering month-to-month debt supply, cracks appear in the primary market. we begin with the big issue. focusing on the fundamentals and not the politics. >> the market is not waiting for anything from washington. >> the impeachment process, we will have to live through for months in a very divisive election. i would not be focused on that in our investing activity. >> you can't trade this stuff right now. >> fundamentally, i don't think it alters a whole lot around the policy or broader economics. >> you almost have to ignore it and keep investing the way you would. >> we are focused on the fed, we are focused on the underlying fundamentals. >> for me, trade is the big thing. >> we really are focused on trade. >> tariffs. >> the trade deal with china, the negative interes

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, investors looking to shake up drama and focus on the policy. on the front, where the white house is on limits on u.s. portfolio flows into china. and credit delivering a month of debt supply, cracks appear in the primary market. we begin with the big issue. you focusing on the fundamentals are focusing on the fundamentals and not the politics. >> the market is not waiting for anything from washington. >> the impeachment process, we will have to live through for months in a very divisive election. i would not focus on that in our investing activity. >> you can't trade this stuff right now. >> fundamentally, i don't think it centers a whole lot around the policy war. >> you almost have to ignore it and keep investing the way you would. >> we are focused on the fed, we are focused on the underlying fundamentals. >> for me, trade is the big thing. >> tariffs. >> the trade deal with china, the negative interest rates affecting the markets

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the market mood music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions soften. data looking ok. harder conflation, and the consumer is still driving economic activity. whip soaring a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. let us begin with the big issues, shall we? things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> and love the theory. >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting. >> what you are seeing is the pricing out of recession risk. >> we don't see recession coming right away. >> maybe august was that peak fear. >> the fear trade peaking. >> chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. >> investor sentiment is incredibly bearish. >> maybe we are coming out of it. i think the fed needs to confirm that, but maybe we have had a mini cycle. >> we are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. >> if we

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. coming up, a fractured fed delivers another rate cut as trade talks between the u.s. and china resume. a little optimism driving junk-bond toward a fifth straight week of gains. yield hit 20-month lows. and the new york fed rolling out an old tool, funding markets signing some stability. we begin with the big issue. a fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. >> there is a lot of dissension in the ranks. a division 7-3. >> i am surprised bullard went as far as to dissent. >> there is a little bit of a split in the dots. >> there are honest differences of opinion in how vulnerable the u.s. economy is. >> on one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. >> you can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. >> on the other hand, you have the trade war, geopolitical risks. >> manufacturing is slowing down. >> capex spending lower. >> you will find more and more divisions in the committee. >> they want

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ coming up, closing out a chaotic august, following a big month for government bonds. growth anxiety lingering with another round of tariffs set to hit next month. president draghi left facing down the european central bank courts. we begin with the big issue, a month to month for government ebt. >> you had a significant rally. >> big rally. >> huge rally in the bond market. >> huge inflows, one-sided trades. >> insatiable demand for yield. >> the message is that things are slowing down. >> slowing down. >> growth is slowing everywhere. >> slowing global growth. >> the fed is not cutting fast enough to keep up with the falling growth outlook. >> they are actually behind the curve. >> likely to be behind the curve. >> the market is crying out for more. >> we are looking at extraordinary times in bond markets. jonathan: joining me from london is james athey. in new york, greg staples, priya misra of td securities. priya, what a month it has be

with tom keener and jonathan ferro in new york. fed has shrunk its thence sheet over time, cash balance is growing, now that the debt issuance is being resolved. as a consequence, the number of reserves has been shrinking. this is tricky because the federal reserve doesn't know how much bank reserves need to satisfy the new liquidity coverage ratio requirements. and how much demand is going to be generated by the fact that interest is paid on reserve. for years, there were plenty of reserves in the system, but now they are getting to the point where demand is not equaling demand supply, so if there is a shock to the system am a that could put/work -- upward pressure. >> you work for years in the trenches of this with your goldman sachs market experience. over to the new york fed, and you just said it, the fed does not really know. if the fed does not really know, does that potentially affect trust? knew there was always a desire to demand for reserves but we could not observe that because there was more than sufficient reserves in

up on "the after the will be joining jonathan ferro. on "the-- coming up open" jack caffrey will be joining jonathan ferro. the latest headline is yemen officials seem to be confirming the saudi officials are issuing a partial cease-fire agreement. the battle is between the saudi's and the rebels that operate in yemen. the rumor is they have some kind of connection to iran, and that is what started this issue where they attacked the oil facilities inside saudi arabia which caused a disruption in the market. if you remove all of that from the market, what is the downside potential of oil? crude off 2%. you have wti around 54%. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up on the program, ignoring the politics and focusing on the fundamentals. more signs the economy is stalling. wells fargo naming a new ceo. charles scharf will be taking over the embattled lender. is peloton the latest high profile name to fall flat

withg up, " real yield," jonathan ferro. sign up for the balance of power newsletter at bloomberg.com. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro bloomberg "real yield " starts right now. up, a fractured fed delivers another rate cut as trade ties between the u.s. and china resume. optimism driving junk-bond toward a fifth straight week of gains. yield hit 20-month lows. the new york fed rolling out an old tool, funding markets signing some stability. a fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. >> a lot of dissension in the ranks. >>

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, sentiment getting a lift as hong kong's leader withdraws the controversial extradition bill. parliament moving to stop and no deal brexit. prime minister johnson looking for a general election. a slow down hitting america. fed president jim bullard saying he is open to another rate cut. here is your wednesday morning price action. futures with a nice lift. positive .9%. the dollar weaker against g10, the euro firmer to 1.1017. treasuries with a lift. yields up three basis points. the curve steeper. let's begin with the bait issue. easing tensions giving sentiment a temporary lift. prompted, events have and risk on mount.

jonathan ferro. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ --athan: amit new york city from new york city, the countdown to the open starts right now. i'm jonathan ferro. [bell ringing] ♪ jonathan: coming up, equity markets rally, bonds dropping. the u.s. retail space showing the american consumer continuing to support the broader economy and president draghi leaving pressure on the government to step up. here is your friday morning price action. they are up 6/10 of 1% and heading for a third straight week of gains. .he euro is stronger a move of more than 40 basis points. things will feel a whole lot better than they did three fridays ago. >>

. ♪ thethan: i'm jonathan ferro countdown to the open starts right now. -- i'm jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts right now. coming up, trade talks about talks. president trump taking center stage at the united nations general assembly in the next hour and the uk's top judges ruling prime minister johnson's suspension of parliament was unlawful. good morning. 30 minutes until the opening bell. here is your tuesday morning price action. futures up seven on the s&p 500. the dollar weaker going into the cash open for equities. down for basisng points on the 10 year to 169. let's begin with the big issue. trade talks about talks leading to more talks and more confusion between the president and the treasury secretary. >> they are starting to buy a ag of -- our

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, despite all the fears, the s&p 500 climbing back to within 2% of all-time highs. attention turning from the fed to the ecb, looking for president draghi to provide more supports as chinese exports decline more than anticipated. auto sales dropping a 14th time in 15 months. good morning. here is your monday morning price action. futures up another 10 points on the s&p 500. we add weight to the major indices in the united states, up .33%. the euro stronger as the session grows older. euro-dollar 1.1034. yields up three basis points to 1.59 on the 10 year. central banks easing into a wall of skepticism. >> monetary policy is not as effective as it used to be. >>

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, it is federal reserve decision day. a divided committee expected cut rates once again as trade officials get set to restart talks. larry kudlow says the mood has turned more optimistic. saudi arabia keeping the oil flowing, restoring output weighing on crude prices. good morning good here is your wednesday morning price action. futures down .1%. in fort exchange, the dollar stronger against everything through the morning. at 1.1055. back treasury yields lower by three basis points to 1.77 on the u.s. 10 year. a rate cut widely expected, but is it sufficient? >> a cut is necessary but not sufficient. >> the question would be guidance. >> what is the forward guidance? >> what they can do to make it easier is not paint th

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ coming up, big moves beneath the equity market surface. the worst-performing names balancing back. citigroup the first wall street bank out of the great morning trading revenue is set to drop. and the newest iphone taking center stage in california. good morning. here is your tuesday morning price action. futures negative, down six points on the s&p 500, softer .2%. in the bond market, yields, in to 1.64 on the 10 year. the dollar stronger against the bulk of g10. euro-dollar 1.1039. let's begin with the big issue. a major rotation from momentum into the worst-performing names. >> money is going out of the stuff that has protected people and into the stuff that is bombed out. >> we are due for a catch-up encyclicals trade. >>

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, payrolls friday, another sign the u.s. labor market remains resilient. china providing extra support for the economy, giving investor sentiment another boost, and chairman powell getting the final word ahead of the fed's next meeting. we begin with the big issue, a mixed payrolls. >> it is decent.

jonathan ferro is in new york. we are going to be joining him in london. in london. mark: guy: from london, -- guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: that's check and now on the bloomberg furs world news. the future ofit their own country first. that is what president trump told leaders at the united nations today. he says the future belongs to those who protect their citizens and respect their neighbors. a says all countries have duty -- allegations that he made inappropriate demands on a call with the ukraine leader he says are not true. he calls it a witch hunt. >> i am leading in the polls. the only way they can try to stop me is through impeachment. this has never happened to a president before. it is nonsense. when you see the call, which i assume you will see, you will understand. learnedberg has president trump ordered his acting chief of staff to delay sending aid to ukraine a week before he spoke to the president. he says he withheld the aid because european countries were not also contributing to the defense. hong kong chief executive carrie lam is cal

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ coming up, a fractured fed delivers another rate cut as trade ties between the u.s. and china resume. optimism driving junk-bond toward a fifth straight week of gains. yield hit 20-month lows. the new york fed rolling out an old tool, funding markets signing some stability. we begin with the big issue. a fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. >> a lot of dissension in the ranks. >> there is a little bit of a split in the dots.

jonathan ferro will be in new york, i will be joining him in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: let's get to first word news with kailey leinz. kailey: hurricane dorian is threatening the east coast. after wreaking havoc on the bahamas, the storm is lashing florida with wind and rain. dorian has been downgraded to a category 2, but it is growing in size. one forecaster says it could make landfall in georgia or the carolinas they are this week. wars johnson is preparing for more defeats in parliament. lawmakerswill be when try to legislate against a no deal brexit, the second when johnson tries to win support for an early general election. he and jeremy corbyn spoke today in parliament. >> we will need -- we will leave by october 31 in all circumstances. there will be no further pointless delay. >> it is becoming increasingly clear that this reckless government only has one plan -- to crash out of the eu without a deal. kailey: johnson responded to yesterday's defeat by expelling more than 20 rebel lawmakers from his party. iran is escalating the pr

. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the market mode music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions often. -- soft and. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whips on a -- whip soaring it one way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. let us begin with the big issues, shall we? things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> and love the theory. >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting.

jonathan ferro is a new york, i will be joining him in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. let's check on the bloomberg first word news. here is courtney donohoe. courtney: steven mnuchin sounding optimistic about u.s. china trade talks. he says progress has been made in chinese officials will travel to washington next month and a sign of good faith. >> i expect the governor of the pboc to come over for these talks. part of the conversation we will be having with them around currency and currency manipulation. mnuchin told foxbusiness president trump is willing to continue with tariffs if there is no deal. he says he sees no signs of u.s. recession. the trump administration once the uae to tighten screws on iran. a top official is in the emirates to meet with banks. the u.s. is seeking to ratchet up sanctions against the iranian government. iran says it will not negotiate unless sanctions are lifted. in the bahamas, the death toll for hurricane dorian has risen to 44. thousan

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, investors looking to shake up drama and focus on the policy. on the front, where the white house is on limits on u.s. portfolio flows into china. and credit delivering a month of debt supply, cracks appear in the primary market. we begin with the big issue. you focusing on the fundamentals are focusing on the fundamentals and not the politics. >> the market is not waiting for anything from washington. >> the impeachment process, we will have to live through for months in a very divisive election. i would not focus on that in our investg

kathleen: that was former new york fed president bill dudley with tom keene and jonathan ferro, talking earlier today. in typical bloomberg fashion, we could not have timed this better because just minutes before tom and jonathan spoke to bill dudley, john williams, the current new york fed president was mentioned and speaking about this same topic as he opened the new york fed's annual treasury market conference. he too says the recent repo market turmoil raises the question that the new york fed, all of them have to be looking at it very carefully. >> it is important that we examine the reason market dynamics and the implications of liquidity needs in relation to the reserves. we will continue to monitor and analyze these developments closely. kathleen: as we heard tom and jonathan saying, bill dudley said it, jay powell talking about this in the last press conference call. we will hear more about this. the fed is in a brave new world of a giant balance sheet. it is a new way of operating. they will not be making it up as they go but definitely taking it step-by-step and figuring out

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield." now.rts right coming up, investors looking to shake up drama and focus on the policy. where the white house is way limits on u.s. portfolio flows into china. and credit delivering a month or month of debt supply, cracks appear in the primary market. we begin with a big issue. focusing on the fundamentals and not the politics. >> the market is not waiting for anything from washington. >>

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. startsrg "real yield" right now. ♪ coming up, the market music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions often. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whips on a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting.

jonathan ferro is a new york, i will be joining him in london. dab digital radio in the london and around the world on all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: and from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "european close" on european -- on bloomberg markets. let's check in with first word news with courtney donohoe. the u.s. huawei says will need to hold talks with it, too. while weight is regarded as an important hardening chip in the trait or. the trump administrate -- in the trade war -- a bargaining chip in the trade war. global funds will no longer need approval to purchase quotas by chinese stocks and bonds. regulators not remove the overall cap on foreign purchases from the assets and is seen as another effort to open up china's financial system to the world. silicon valley's worst enemy has returned with even more power. -- has been picked as the executive vice president is the european union's digital affairs. she squeezed huge penalties out of apple and google. global new

jonathan ferro is in new york. i will be joining him in london. on dab digital radio and allowed -- and around the world on all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i am guy johnson. this is "the european close" on bloomberg markets. let's check in on first word news. >> president trump is suggesting the democrats heading the impeachment investigation, adam schiff, be arrested for treason. he is also demanding to meet the anonymous whistleblower behind the probe. adam schiff says congress will hear from the whistleblower soon. it is a matter of arranging security clearances. the trump administration is downplaying a revelation about u.s. investments in chinese markets. bloomberg reported the white house discussed the listing chinese companies from u.s. exchanges. the treasury department says there are currently no plans to stop chinese companies from listing in the u.s. raisesland, a law that the legal smoking age goes into effect. the new law raises the age from 18 to 2

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, it is payrolls friday, delivering another sign the u.s. labor market remains rocksolid. china's bank providing extra support for the economy, giving investor sentiment one more boost. and waiting for jay powell closing out the week with the much-anticipated speech. that is all ahead had. a big friday coming up and an all-star payrolls panel. from new york city, anastasia amoroso, rick rieder of blackrock, michael collins of pigeon, and from italy, mohamed el-erian. coming up later on this program, reaction from the white house with larry kudlow. we will bring you that interview around 9:45 eastern time. counting you down to an opening bell 30 minutes away. your price action shaping up as follows with futures up nine points on the s&p 500.

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: equity markets treading water as the fed meeting begins in washington. oil gripped by uncertainty. saudi arabia telling customers some crew delivery will be delayed. for now wework will not work in public markets. the company set to postpone a contentious ipo. good morning. futures negative four points on the s&p 500. down .1%. in foreign exchange, the euro firmer to 1.1026. treasury bill -- treasuries bid, yields lower 1.83 on the u.s. 10 year. a rate cut is all but done. show me the guidance. >> they will cut by 25. >> 25 basis points. game, thee of the rest point for wednesday will be what is the forward guidance? >>

. ♪ y95óóo jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, wrapping up a messy third quarter going into the back end of 2019 with stocks up 18%. the trump administration playing down reports it is plenty to curb investment in chinese assets as improving economic data in china is met with the great wall of doubt ahead of next week's trade talks. with 30 minutes until the opening bell, morning. here is your monday morning price action. futures rolling over into the cash open 30 minutes away. futures up two points on the s&p 500. for thelar sub 1.09 first time since may 2017. a weaker euro, much stronger dollar. in treasury, yields up a single basis point on the 10 year to 1.69. slightly improving chinese data met with a wall of doubt. >> i would still be very cautious in interpreting this as a recovery. >>

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, oil surging following a major strike on saudi arabian oil production. china data disappointing. the premier saying it will be difficult to achieve 6% growth. all ahead of the fed decision this week with chairman powell expected to cut rates once again. good morning. here is your monday morning price action. futures -.33% following three straight weeks of gains. yields come down five basis points. a major move with crude. up 11% to 60 $.83. that's begin with the big issue. crude pricing surging. different.ack was >> something we have not seen for many years. >> the largest single disruption in oil supply on record. >> we will

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, equity markets rallying. the u.s. and china scheduling face-to-face talks in october. with sentiment improving, economic data coming next. the jobs report around the corner as more signs of weakness emerge in europe, german factory earnings dropping. 30 minutes until the opening bell. here is your price action. bonds drop. stocks up 1% on s&p 500 futures. bonds down, yields higher six basis points. the curve steeper. 1.52 is the yield on the 10 year. euro-dollar up to 1.1059. let's begin with the big issue -- sentiment improves. skepticism remains. >> easing. >> fresh optimism. >>

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ coming up, the s&p 500 hovering within 1% of record highs, as trade talks continue between u.s. and china. oil is set for its biggest weekly gains since january, saudis are promising more output. aftere music improves jean-claude juncker says a deal can be reached by halloween. good morning. here is your friday morning price action with futures positive 2/10 of 1%. in foreign exchange, the euro is weaker, 1.1025. ten-year.e u.s. stocks are closing in on another record. >> we are near record highs. >>>> it is an all-time high again. >> hovering at all-time highs. but it is a different makeup. >> a relation between value and growth and