tom: i see. norman: it must've been the same kind they wore at that time. i have this old hat here. it is a real beauty. you can get a new hat. it really has to be sweated and lived in, and this has been lived in. tom: that hat is so old and beat up it looks beautiful. [laughter] the way norman found the models for his covers interested me very much, especially the cover he did for "the saturday evening post," now known as the golden rule cover. there were a lot of people in that, it went over 30 heads, all kinds of people and nationalities. where did they come from, norman? norman: some of them came from right here in stockbridge and others came from arlington, vermont. tom: let's start at the beginning. what made you decide to do the picture, norman? norman: well, tom, i realized the golden rule was the only common denominator of all religions from the beginning of time. the golden rule which says do unto others as you would have them do unto you. tom: those colorful costumes in the picture, no

tom? tom: greatly appreciate that. let's go to equities, bonds, currencies, commodities on a friday. maybe not the nuance of yesterday. this could heat up. futures negative nine, dow futures negative for. this comes back from the level.s francine talking about gold. she owns it up to her eyeballs, i don't own any because i am up to triple leverage bond yields. off the lower yield bridging of the last 48 hours. francine? tom, we don't trade here in europe. the gold i have is bracelets from my grandmother. as is what i'm looking at overall. if you reach that psychological that is an00, all-time high. i don't know what happens after that, but we will speak to a couple of technical analysts on that. sideways, dipping european bonds also falling after u.s. treasuries turned lower, tom. tom:. good. chengdu -- where is it? maybe't know it because we wander out to beijing when we go past the pacific. it is not far, far west but it is on the way to west. chengdu -- well, that is the entryway to the pandas, the entryway to tibet

tom: yes. norman: well, come on. tom: we took a look at the picture in the parlor. remington was a guy born in new york state who moved out west as a tourist. he did not paint the boredom of cowboy life, but only the romantic side. in the same way, norman who was born in new york city, became a tourist in the country. ♪ i ride an old paint i lead an old dame i'm going to montana to throw the houlihan beat them and the coolies and water in the dog, their acts are all matted and covered with straw ride around little doggies, right around them slow, because the fire and the snuffy are raring to go ♪ the big influence in norman's life was pyle, howard pyle. he felt fortunate to acquire an original, which he hung in the studio. ♪ there were three brothers in merry scotland, in merry scotland they did cast lots on which shouldn't go and turn a on the salt sea the lot fell upon henry martin, the youngest of all the three that he should turn robber on all the salt sea, the salt sea, for to mainta

tom: interesting. matthew miller, prescient on this hours ago, talking about monopoly or non-monopolistic characteristics of companies including apple. my conversation of the week on technology, michael wolff, you may not know the name, he came out of mckinsey years ago and did a few things. like with yahoo!. he has always been able to develop that strategic technology over tactical execution of said strategy. we are thrilled he can join us from activate this morning. are these companies monopolies like standard oil of years ago? michael: fascinating. each one of them is not a monopoly. in each case, they dominate their part of their industries. in yesterday's hearings, what was clear and what you have to agree with his they are going to face -- with is they are going to face competition. samsung. they will face competition. they are in a great position and have maximum control. tom: the differences, with standard oil, we broke the companies up into like companies. the critics want to break up the divi

tom: well said. grim is an overlay, the gdp numbers against the absolute tech logical miracle that was witnessed yesterday afternoon. in the pantheon of american technology back to the 19th century, yesterday was a bellwether announcement. applean: the idea that made $26 billion worth of iphones and a shutdown is unbelievable. tom: that is a granularity job lisa -- job. something on instagram, researches it on google, and buys the iphone. jonathan: you are describing yourself and projecting onto lisa what you are doing. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: it will be about the nasdaq and big tech. rumor, and it is not just us, it is our kids at home. we are trying to give them a screen and throw out parenting guidelines. as we look to washington, d.c. for guidance, there is none. jobless benefits will expire without benefits past at the end of the day. u.s. personal income and spending down over the month of june, but it will give us a sense of how much did ulster the saving and spending capabilities of americ

tom: i know you like math on thursday. if you take the y-axis on that italian piece, you get a curved line. accelerationere is in that move as a sovereign credit. thethan: let's help conversation this morning with sebastien page, t. rowe price head of global multi-asset. 70 people come on programs like this and talk about an expensive stock market. can you talk to us about an expensive bond market, please? stocksen: right, look expensive for sure, but bonds to me, especially treasuries and safe bonds in general, look even more expensive. if i go on my bloomberg and look at the real yield for the 10 year u.s. treasuries, i get -88 basis points. if i invest in safe bonds in the u.s. right now and i hold, i am going to lose money. we end up neutral between stocks and bonds. we don't think stocks are in a bubble necessarily. tom: any time say the real yield, we have to defer the next question to jon ferro. jonathan: if that how it works? is everything pricing off of the deeply negative real yield in america? tom: generally spe

tom: good morning. our simulcast bloomberg surveillance across this nation on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. great conversation, really strong yesterday. theseard some of questions wrapped around the surging equity markets that we saw yesterday. jon is going to do the data in a bit. we saw a pullback in the data this morning. butee it in bonds as well, a most interesting day all in all. you centered your data checks on the mystery of the u.s. dollar. we are going to address that in a bit, but it is still a remarkably resilient u.s. dollar. jonathan: and a hugely divisive debate at the moment about geographical bias. a lot of people focused on that word divergence. what is the reopening we can depend on? is it not the united states? that is the question that has come up continually. for this recovery, the reopening, it will be bumpy and we will see a lot of evidence of that today in australia. at theu mentioned this top of the last hour. to see melbourne on official relocked down, that was soberi

i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. tom, gold, gold, gold. we may get a 1900 handle or close to it. i like the way you readjust your bowtie right before we see you on camera. francine: i haven't -- tom: well, i haven't looked in a mirror in 82 years. on a friday, you adjust your type. i did a lavender thing today. it is a more sensitive look. what an interesting market. it is not a normal july, and simply, it is not a normal friday. gold almost touching 1900, better markets in the last minutes off the better than good pmi data in europe. francine: we had better-than-expected pmi in europe, but also the u.k. it is not moving markets that much, but it is something to keep an eye on. let's get to first word news with karina mitchell. >> china has dropped back, ordering the u.s. to close its consulate in chengdu because of the u.s. decision to close the chinese consulate in houston. china serves as a key u.s. listening post. china says its action is a legitimate one and necessary. president trump has given into worries about the coronavirus. he c

tom? tom: let me frame fx and bonds here as we get to are important guest to start us out in this hour. the two-year yield in the united states, i don't care what anybody says about yield curve control. .12, go through the week, .11, four digits right now, .1093. there is, as they say, gamma there. francine, it is mirrored in foreign exchange. index, 92.84, a weaker dollar. euro is painful. 1.1856. even yen, showing 104.66. francine: we are getting caterpillar earnings as well, but in general european shares are gaining after the stellar earnings from american tech giants, which is lifting sentiment. i'm looking at gold climbing to a record, treasuries and european bonds gains. a lot of the focus is what we are seeing in tech stocks. treasury yields ticking lower. tom: treasury yields may be the ultimate litmus paper here. right now and update with a gentleman who can give us the dynamics of the foreign exchange in the fixed income markets. kamakshya trivedi. atsomehow survived calculus ox

tom? anna? thank you very much. -- the europe, we are s&p seems to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting, up 1% elsewhere in europe sluggish. tom: very good. as i said at the top of the hour, we are watching some most interesting dynamics. gold moving up again, up to new recent highs. buttressed up against the 2011 hi, which i believe was 1880, maybe 1885. without question, the number one data item of the day is the chinese renminbi strengthening to 7, coming through to 6.98. thenger, huge signaling to equity markets not only with china, as anna edwards mentioned, but worldwide as well. you can see the continued green on the screen with the nasdaq, and the early futures in america. please stay with us. on economic, finance, investment, this is bloomberg. jonathan fenby next. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" from new york and london. one of the things true about china is you have to read up, read in. or are all sorts of good books. you need to focus on is someone like lord

tom: we told people in march --chris: we told people in march below 2500. tom: that is not now. jonathan: that's more than a slip. [laughter] chris: it is really hard to call a 1% pullback a dip. tom: thank you. [laughter] chris: we would hope you are fully invested at this point in time. if you are not, this would not be a great time to really start buying your uber caps and put on a ton of risk at this juncture. we would be a little bit more cautious. we have been saying if we do get that melt up, at some point we want to shift to a more defensive stance to your low vol. fell off their chair in st. louis when you called a 1% pullback a dip. this is where we are. [laughter] jonathan: chris, great to catch up. chris harvey thereof wells fargo. what you just heard from the south side, you'll never hear him talk about a trade that went wrong five months ago, but you will hear them say a trade that went right from five months ago. tom: well, that is the nature of the beast. this is all just vectors. defectors went straight up since time began. it is just amazing how we have removed

tom? tom: the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. instead of bringing it to a complete halt, we will give it to you throughout surveillance today. futures are up. you see it elevated in the technology stocks. moments ago, joseph feldman advised that his price target, which he raised a week ago from 3200 to 3600 on amazon, chelsea advisory group now goes to 4000 on amazon. that is an extra ordinary statistic and i'm sure we will see more on that today. jim suber raises apple as well. equities are up, nasdaq is going to be up like a moonshot. what i would really focus on is yields. the two year yield, we broke .11%, and we had a moment where we were .1093. that is truly extraordinary, and you see an equivalent in the fx market. francine, you've got to tell me how you are going to afford a euro of 1.1854. francine: sorry, tom, we are not traveling anymore. european shares gaining. i think there is a lot of good feeling out there on the markets about these stellar earnings from american tech giants, and that just seems to be lifting sent

tom: good morning. tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abram

tom keene and jamie dimon kicking things off at j.p. morgan. tom: this is so important. each bank comes out with a different look and feel. there's no question this is a bank coming out with confidence. he was emotional right from the top of his comment on the employees and what they've done during this crisis. what i see here is best in class confidence. you wonder how the other banks will adapt to that. call it: let's conservative confidence. you can see where the headwinds are. they are going to be with us for quite a while. lisa: they boosted their reserves for credit losses highlighting some of the concerns about the economy. shares of jp morgan right now and have the open up almost 4%. we will get more of a sense of how much of a port in the storm they will be. we will get consumer price index data which may point to the biggest rise in consumer prices in seven years due to some of the energy increases. lots of fed speak ahead of the blackout period. jonathan: we have to kick things off with bank earnings on wall street and crossover to sonali basak. >> pretty amaz

tom: well said. the gentleman from hungary, the gentleman from poland, they are going to go home as well. what is the impact of the eastern european states at this meeting, and what will be their power at strasburg in parliament? maria: that is the issue when it comes to victor or bond -- viktor orban. it is very clear the european leaders decided to give him a pass because they wanted this deal to go ahead. -- wew the democratic know that there are many questions about the direction he is taking the country. but do european leaders want to pressure them? he has a v2 on the deal -- a veto on the deal? or did they just want to pass the deal? jonathan: we will catch up with you a little later on. lisa, a deal done. as you say, the market moved, not exactly emphatic, but i think this is a story that builds over time. a look atou take longer-term inflation expectations in germany, they are the highest and early march. not the sameit is story. still very low, but creeping higher with the virus effort, as

tom: i cannot. they went out and said the percentage of that 175,000 that would become full-time employees which i think means fully benefit employees. no, i do not have a handle on the size of jp morgan at 260,000. certainly not the size of walmart. and this amazon juggernaut, i don't know how to handle it. jonathan: 125,000 full-time jobs coming from the company. it is unbelievable. lisa: they have more than one million workers. they are the second biggest employer in the u.s. behind walmart. thank about what this means in terms of the political ramifications. how significant it will be if they do or don't raise salaries. it is compelling heading into the election season. jonathan: i don't think a stock split is going to help them on that front. globalup, the principal investors she strategies -- strategist -- chief strategist on this market. truly unprecedented what the biggest companies in america did for the second quarter. good morning. equity features up .3%. heard on bloomberg radio and seen

tom: we welcome all of

♪ ♪ >> stephen: please welcome to "a late show," tom hanks! hello, tom! >> you know, one thing i have to say, your-- your-- your-- your joke bit rate is sky high when i watch your monologues now, because there's absolutely no gap for anything. you don't have anybody-- you know, jon isn't over there. you can't-- >> stephen: nope! ( laughter ) >> well, you do, but there's no laughter. >> stephen: there's no-- but here's the nice thing, tom, and let's just assume we've already started our interview, shall we? >> fine by me. >> stephen: here's the nice thing is that we always talk about the national conversation, and the national conversation has gotten so dark, that, normally, as a performer, you have to worry about "what order do i want to tell the stories? i don't want to bum out the f res monologue." doesn't matter, man. talk about anything you want. it's just silence, just crickets the entire time. >> it's like you had a dinner party and nobody showed up, except you and the wife. >> stephen: that's true. >> chatting about your day. chatting about your da

tom: it is a busy week ahead. i can't say enough for the importance of the cola -- of pepsi-cola's earnings this morning. gina martin adams of bloomberg intelligence has been absolutely dead on on the earnings surprises we are going to see off the glue. pepsi -- off the gloom. -- camecame in al in almost flat. futures up 18. onathan: futures positive the s&p by 0.6%. cfohing up with the pepsico a little later on. this thursday, the ecb will be meeting. this coming weekend, european leaders get together. that is a huge focal point. lisa: the frugal five coming out, trying to push back against 750 billion euro programs. the fed very much and focus this week. we get a slew of fed speak ahead of the blackout period next week. a.m., andrew williams and the boe governor andrew bailey joining to talk about libor. then robert kaplan talking about covid testing and recovery. at 2:00 p.m., will get the u.s. monthly budget statement for june, which should show unprecedented deficit for the u.s. budget. jon, no one cares. thi

tom: sharon, good morning. tom keene in new york. does the agra fee matter here? chengdu is to the south -- does geography matter here? chengdu is to the south, and of course there was a terrible earthquake where condoleezza rice visited years ago. ,oes geography matter between with chengdu out in the west? sharon: the bigger consulate we visitedu.s. -- the consulate here in chengdu today, and people were telling us that really they haven't been processing visas anyway since the u.s. shut down those services during the pandemic. the impact is really that the people will not be able to go, it will not affect travel in the country. the diplomatic ties with people being able to go there, not just tourists, but to work and study. deciding on the size of the consulate to be shut will be the way that the chinese calibrate that. francine: the china-u.k. ties are also deteriorating. they are about to touch soccer if you are american. the state tv has blacked out english soccer, or the premier league. who at the moment supports china? who are they closest to you? mean, chi

tom: before we get to tom porcelli, jon, i want one more thought from you. when we look from the data and have to fold it into market reaction, why are stocks going up if we are so miserable? jonathan: i don't have the answer to that when this morning, but over the last few months, i think the direction of travel matters. quite clearly in the month of june, a real tug-of-war has emerged. i think we got to separate amps in this market, those that believe we will continue to see positive urban that will drive equities higher, and those on the others that are more certain about the low capacity economic for an extended time weighing on risk appetite. that is the tug-of-war in this risk market playing out over the last several weeks. a "surveillance" miracle, we got through the previous conversation without mentioning a v-shaped. we break that rule now with tom porcelli of rbc capital. i know it is not a v-shaped recovery. what is it? well, we've got some technical difficulties. we will pick it up here as we are 25 minutes away from the. lisa, i look at the idea

tom? tom: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. --ures up 18, dell futures dow futures down. 29.06 on the vix. the real story to me this morning is the dollar. it is really setting up, it is really technically brilliant. christopher verrone of strategas was billion yesterday. that is a blended euro heavy dollar index, and that is a big deal. for it to print a 94 handle would really signal finally for the weak dollar. i am watching that carefully. guy: absolutely. hand of your screen, apple winning the e.u. court fight over the 14.9 billion dollars tax bill that is due in ireland. the e.u. will appeal this. there is one higher court still to go here. in terms of what is happening in europe, travel and leisure has been boosted. the moderna story is front and center for the market. the equity vote getting a push lower today, the authorities a little cautious on what is happening with the rally we are seeing in chinese equities. you talk about the dollar index. onare at 1.14 34 euro-dollar. the nasdaq once again finished below the s&p.

tom: right. what is so interesting is the theory we learned in school, the basic idea of price, earnings, flip them, and you get the yields lower right now. yields go ever lower. can you live sustained as a portfolio manager? have been in this business a long time. i remember the anxiety of 1999-2000. you are saying, do i just chase a few stocks going to the moon or do i be responsible to my client base and not own them and therefore lag? it is starting to feel that way again. a few stocks have outrageous valuations and the rest of the market is being left behind. francine: what will accelerate that trend? andrew: we are already in a bubble in the nasdaq but we are levels of the valuation bubble of 2000, when it did burst, but we are getting there. what will accelerate it is the fear of people like me or investors, of missing out. i have to get in. more and more money piles into fewer names which causes the bubble to expand, ultimately, before it pops. the tech sector is more expensive than it ha

tom keene, negotiations begin in washington, d.c. tom: there we are last night. we will let much more today. i love one of the coming, i believe from the senator from could. he called -- from kentucky. the legislation from the democrats "a multitrillion dollar socialist manifesto." jonathan: it is going to be a mess. republicans negotiating with themselves, simultaneously negotiating with democrats. tom: it's got to get to the end of july here. kevin cirilli, we will talk to him through the morning, but the calendar urgency here is extraordinary. jonathan: as this week grows older, this week it's a whole lot busier. lisa: we are heading into the fed meeting today. at 10:00 a.m., we get consumer confidence data for july. very interested to see how much this has been affected by the end in pandemic cases across the country. starbuckst, visa and reporting earnings. 10% of s&p stocks report results today for the second quarter, another eight percent tomorrow, 12% on thursday, so a big earnings week. , hashing out the stimulus. i am really interested in the mechanics

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. we are in new york, but the story is in washington. a hat trick of themes to get through this morning. yes, a fed meeting at 2:00. none of it matters. what matters is the drama, the guys fromof four silicon valley lined up in front of congress. and oh yeah, the stimulus. what has your attention? jonathan: funnily enough, the federal reserve, but only because somebody people are playing it down. a lot of people have shaken their head. what was the last three months about? we are about to see a shift away from the accommodation we have seen towards much more forward guidance, and the commitment, the shift in the reaction function to formalize that commitment to low for a whole lot longer, and i think that it's important. tom: the queen of the x-axis, lisa abramowicz, is here. are we going to go out to 2023 today? lisa: the question is where. are we talking about the front end? clearly they are not going to raise rates anytime soon. what are going to be some of the measures they look to

tom keene, let's talk about china. a headline from reuters a couple of hours ago, indicating that china is considering closure of a u.s. consulate in wuhan, one of the five consulates the u.s. has in china. this is the tit for tat i think we can expect. tom: we have kept quiet on this headline. just a little blast on twitter is not good enough, but now we have liquid from reuters and bloomberg news as well. "china could respond to the american order by closing u.s. consulate in wuhan, where the virus originated, or another city," the bloomberg source said. we are getting more formal and good in the reporting on the chaos out of china. jonathan: hard to keep up. south china sea diplomacy spilling into consulates in the united states. ktok?s next, ti that is becoming a big focus as well, how would people in america are on that chinese owned app. i know there will be some kind of story with you and your family. tom: i would love to see it go. not only do i have the offspring on astok, but relatives well. lisa: anyone with

tom? tom: thank you so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. , the way thats the dollar is weaker is really interesting. all of a sudden yen catching up with the euro strains. we have yen strains. we see that in a euro-yen here with a churn. swiss franc does nothing, which i think is fascinating. maybe we will touch on that with gilles moec in a moment. i would point out that turkey is a mess, not only dollar-lire, but just as important, euro-lire is out to new record weakness. turkey, all my radar is up as we roll into august on the challenges of mr. ertl again. -- of mr. erdogan. francine: i think we should spend a bit more time on it. stocks are edging up. to be honest, when i last checked, they were trading sideways. this is because they do not know what to do in the run-up to decisions from the fed policy meeting. have a couple of banking stocks down. bad loan provisions that exceeded market estimates. gold hovering close to its record $2000 an ounce. and bitcoin, i will talk about it in a second.

>> stephen: please welcome to 'a' late show, tom hanks! hello, tom! >> you know, one thing i have to say, your joke bit rate is sky high when i watch your monologues now because there's absolutely no gap for anything. you don't have anybody -- you know, jon isn't over there, you can't -- >> stephen: nope. ( laughter ) >> well, you do, but there's no laughter. >> stephen: there's no -- but here's the nice thing, tom, and let's just assume we've already started our interview, shall we? >> fine by me. >> stephen: the nice thing is that we always talk about the national conversation, and the national conversation has gotten so dark that, normally, as a performer, you have to worry about what order do i want to tell the stories, i don't want to bum out the the audience, i don't want to kill out the laughter for the rest of the monologue. doesn't matter, man. talk about anything you want. just silence, just crickets the entire time. >> it's leak you had a dinner party and nobody showed up except you and the wife. >> stephen: that's true. chatting about your

tom etheridge, nice to meet you. >> tom, how are you? >> good. >> this is the headquarters for worldwide trailer? >> this is the headquarters. >> did a little research. the product you guys make is good. >> yeah. >> now, how much--how much revenue is your company doing? >> we did 4 million last year. >> and so how much of that actually fell to the bottom line? how much did you make? >> maybe 400,000. >> how many will you make a year? >> about 125 trailers a year. keep in mind, not all trailers are food trailers. even though that's what we specialize in, we'll build emergency command post trailers. we've built mortuary trailers, casket trailers. we're pretty good at what we do, marcus. we've been doing it for a long time. >> who's that? >> that's kita. >> that's kita. that's the shop dog. >> yeah. >> whose dog is that? >> mine. >> it's my dog. >> no. >> [laughs] >> no, that's my dog. >> your dog, his dog? >> no, it's mine. >> oh. >> used to be my dog. >> no, it was ours, and she stays with me. >> oh. >> we were a couple for 20 years, but

tom: you're right. i'm humbled by it, and a lot of the grizzled crohn's i know -- know wererows i humbled by that. i am looking at the high-frequency data. jonathan: a lot of data to pour over here on bloomberg. equity futures up 25 on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.8%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. china is warning that the u.s. u.s.ina is warning the and others to stop criticizing its new hong kong security law. sanctionsould impose on officials involved with the crackdown on hong kong. president trump says masks are good, but questions whether americans should b made to wear them. the president told foxbusiness he would wear a mask if he were "in a tight situation with people." president trump has mocked democratic challenge joe biden for wearing a mask. iden outraised president last month with $141 million in june. that tops the hall from the president and the republicans, the second straight month that biden's fundraisers came out on top. big in a

you are stunned, tom. tom: look at the procter & gamble dividend, and the world stops. it is puny compared to lale. who cares what the stock did? talkingnd people dividend growth, that tells you something about the times. jonathan: your equity market, still up seven points on the s&p 500, up 0.2%. headline in the u.k., review and develop into aid to china. this coming from the prime minister's spokesperson. about 70 million sterling, not a huge amount, but there's a lot of aid that goes from the u.k. to the rest of the world. the budget has been cut to about 15 billion sterling annually. these are the kind of things i don't think the electric in the u.k. really quite understand -- the electorate in the u.k. really quite understand. they are thinking, why did we send money to china? that is what is playing out in the west. why are we sending money to china when china is subsidizing companies to compete with hours? we were in chengdu visiting the consulate this morning, and then there is wuhan, but i have to tilt to hong kong and the substantial consulates there for ameri

tom: it really is. you get into the fancy language, the gamma where you start to get accelerated trends. i was taken back yesterday at how the chairman, he's got to be cent, but you got to wonder what the phd's at the fed are doing. my eyes are failing me. -.98, -.97.re at you get a one handle on the 10 year tip, you will have to extended real yield out to a full program. jonathan: we are working on it, and you know that, so that is why you brought it up. so i am going to ignore you. about this yesterday. i thought he would've had more to say about forward guide you just think about that. i had of september, i didn't think we would get the forward guidance. i just thought would get the tees that we are shifting towards a world where it might something well south of what we considered less time around. last time they did this at the back end of 2012, the introduce forward guide and basically said rates go nowhere, at least until we go through 6.5% on the end up limit rate. alice makers are conditioned by

tom: i'm running, too. jon: down fifth avenue? tom: chasing the dog out the door. [laughter] thisfrom new york city morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. busy couple of hours ahead. york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ 49... 50! i found you! good job. now i'm gonna stay here and you go hide. watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the xfinity stream app. free with your xfinity service. now any room can be a tv room. stream live tv, on demand shows and movies even your dvr recordings. download the xfinity stream app today to stream the entertainment you love. xfinity. the future of awesome. morning,sy thursday good morning to you all from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, 60 minutes away from initial jobless claims in america, the ecb decision is 15 minutes away. the euro, just a little softer against the dollar this morning. the s&p 500 clinging to that 3200 level, down by 6/10 of 1%. the bond yard -- bond market, yields in on the 10 year.

tom: this is important. is brussels changed by this, or is it another ballet until the next meeting? tom: i think the main thing that is changing is member state politics, the domestic politics of the member states. we have seen that across europe. we are usually focused on the bad news, the rise of populism and so forth. if you look at france, the from a european leader like micron, the changes from angela merkel. so for me, the worst thing that -- jonathan: i hear you. the debate is about the size of this, not the concept. just by nature of the conversation, that is progress for the europeans. a final question about this evening. this has to be ratified at home. for prime minister rutte, how hard will it be when the strings attached finally come out? carsten: that will be the key thing because he needs to be able to go home to the netherlands and remember we are going into election year in 2021. he's under massive pressure from the populist right at home. he needs to say we are not just putting money on th

tom? francine? francine: up next, stephanie kelly. we will talk about u.s. and china. we will also talk about brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." francine in london, i'm tom keene in new york. right now on the politics of the world centered on the stimulus in america, stephanie kelly joins us with aberdeen standard. there senior political economist. we could go to europe, china, but to me the lose nest night -- last night -- to me the news last night, the republicans struggling particularly against the calendar. i find the calendar here extraordinary. however urgent is it for the republicans to coalesce today? think it is pretty important. when we look at the end of this week at what is going to take place, particularly with unemployment benefits, we know that it is the republicans fight against the republicans. these are deep republican issues, although we know white house relations are sometimes strained with the gop, but it is a republican party that leaves in the benefi

tom: 20 years ago, there weren't etf's. gold is of a bid to the ancient bid to gold versus the new financial is asian of the bid to gold -- the new financialization to the bid to gold? michael: i would refer you to the bond market, where the etf phenomenon started to build. they were not a factor 10 years ago, and now have a massive amount of bond holdings. i don't think that negates the genuine nature of the bond market rally of that time, so yes, i think etf ownership is very important for precious metals. it has allowed a different kind of buyer to be long metals. i think a lot of institutions would not bought -- would not want to belong physical gold. but that is just part of the way financial markets work. that is how gold is going to be owned going forward. by itself doesn't mean that the march 2 almost $2000 -- the $2000 >>almost validity. jonathan: why is it different from 2011? michael: you didn't have a massive explosion of monetary policy locally. you were unwinding some of the qe in the united states. it really

tom: you mentioned australia. you are encyclopedic on this, so i can be unfair and ask a question about this. china is getting a little play in the american press with woody island triangulated between taiwan and vietnam. these little islands in the south china sea, would you anticipate that they will become an important discussion? >> they have been an important discussion for about 15 years. they are important trading centers, so a lot of shipping goes through, including around the spratly islands which are two separate island chains in the east china sea -- south china sea. what they have been focusing on is building up their military capacity, essentially turning the low-lying reefs into bases that can house fighter jets and oftnot, putting quite a lot armory on them as well. there is an incentive for china to turn this into a military fight and the -- the risk is that because no one is pushing back against china in the south china sea, we will wake up one day and realize 10 years from now it has militarized t

tom? tom: thanks so much, richie go. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. we are going to get to kit juckes here. it is about equities, about bonds, bonds, bonds. all you need to know is that yields come in with a vengeance and continue to grind down after the powell press conference. you see in the 10-year, .55. five-year yield out to record low as well. you really see it in the inflation-adjusted space, however you want to measure that. guy, to me the yield story is front and center. guy: absolutely. it was interesting to see that powell did not stand in the way of the weaker dollar. we have a stronger dollar, and you can certainly see that in euro-dollar. trading at 1.1739. a huge earnings day in europe. we had german cd -- german gdp to contend with. unemployment better than anticipated, but the banking sector we are focusing on, yesterday you talked about jes staley. our clays painting a grim picture -- barclays painting a grim picture for the u.k. economy. airbus out with better news this morning. the company is trying to manage its cash flow position

tom: good morning, everyone. on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television worldwide, hot and steamy in new york city. hot and steamy for day conversations in europe to some level of success. of course, the stimulus discussion in washington, all of this wrapped around a market that will never, ever go down. futures up 25, dow futures up 186. we have a 23 print on the vix now. just to go to the equity market for one second, come on, jon. 32 to 23 on the vix is really something. jonathan: it is an equity market that has got away from so many, particularly on the tech side. amazon up 70%. microsoft, apple up 30%. we have had monster moves. tom: your thoughts on europe, you spent eight tour of duty in -- you spent a tour of duty in fractured, germany -- in frankfurt, germany. jonathan: europe is demonstrating that they can borrow at the commission level and distribute to places like italy. that was unthinkable in the depths of the crisis. i don't think it is that goal bullet, the. this is part of the journey. that's ho

tom: i totally agree. a giant of the richmond fed made very clear, steady as they go is what we will hear from chair powell. jonathan: what an agenda this wednesday down in washington. lisa: we are talking about the big four tech companies, all of the ceos testifying in front of an antitrust committee of the house. republicans on one side questioning them about stifling republican voices. on the others, questions about stifling competition. the president is traveling to texas to talk about energy dominance, with just three days left until the federal unemployment benefits go out of effect. jonathan: look forward to full coverage on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. let's get the price action this morning. equity futures up five points on the s&p 500. in the bond market, improving risk appetite sending yields up by a single basis point on the 10 year. the blinkers have been on for euro-dollar. they are back on today. that euro strength back on the screen. tom: a stronger japanese as well. marketse of rbc ca

tom: it is worldwide. syrian duncan smith was on -- .ir ian duncan smith was on there is a global messaging here about china and what to do with their economic and military assertiveness. jonathan: for the equity market, we are down just eight points on the s&p 500. market participants don't know what to do with that story. this has been the take away for the last several weeks, every time we see a headline like this. we come back pretty quickly. lisa: trade tensions were a tear bleed through into the economy. result, an unclear less fuzzy result that we are is the crude oil inventory report at 8:30 a.m. i am very interested in that, given yesterday we saw the biggest jump in oil inventories in the u.s. may, leading to a decline in demand. sellp.m., u.s. poised to $17 billion of 20 year bonds. why doesn't the u.s. sell more long-term debt? a debate. after that, microsoft and tesla reporting earnings. if you say anything bad about the stock, you get a ton of hate mail in about two minutes. tom keene's lived

tom? tom: there is something going on you need to know this morning. it is the second line there, with serious curve compression, and it is a two-year space. futures up this way, that way, and the rest of the tape is pretty boring, to be blunt. but watch short-term yields. four digits, the two-year yield in the united states, and at two-year .11 on the yield. i'm really watching that very carefully. yields have come in in the last 48 hours. ritika? tom: looking at the date -- nejra: looking at the date on my side, you're seeing european equities pulling back. the e.u. recovery fund is being discussed this weekend, one of the reasons that for example goldman, barclays, morgan stanley come have cited a preference for european equities over u.s. equities. i think there is a different picture in equities today. outperforming. we have seen underperformance in tech shares. the dollar hit for a third weekly lost. that weekly lost. tom: we will continue virus and pandemic coverage. i am proud of the team here that puts it together hour after hour, as the pande

tom: you saw it. mike wilson had a really smart note at morgan stanley talking about when they finally coalesce. one time, it is the cyclicals doing well. then the tech does well. back-and-forth, back-and-forth. you really wonder when they come together and make a real bull market. jonathan: in the fx market, slightly firmer euro. $1.14, up 0.25%. are there reasons for optimism? let's bring in jp morgan's private bankhead of market strategy. your take away after a weekend of negotiations? a modest positive surprise, the fact that they are coming back and talking again shows real intent to nail down the headline numbers in this deal. we knew that there would be some compromises on the road to recovery and final agreement here. we knew the headline number would come down from that 750. loansift from grants to seems to be down. it is still enough of the market as a panacea for the troubles. once we get some agreement on that, hopefully it comes today, then we can move on to some ,ther issues around gover

tom keene in new york. we will spend a good amount of time at looking out what is going on with the u.k., with some extra help or not from the chancellor. we will also look at what is happening between hong kong and the u.s. we look at latin america, more specifically with brazil, with bolsonaro, the president, contracting the coronavirus. tom: the parliament terry process is dominance of government -- the parliamentary process is dominant of government, completely opposite of what we see in the united states, but it is really all the same thing, governments coming to the rescue of economies that are simply shattered. francine: yeah, and we don't know if there is a second wave or a specific lockdown coming our way as well. let's get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: good morning, francine, tom. the u.s. is pending -- planning a one a virus testing resurgence. testings are being -- sites are being set up in louisiana and florida. they could provide a clearer picture of how the co

tom: there's st

another reason tom keene is depressed. tom: oh, you saw that? we won't mention dr. fauci throwing out the first pitch. i believe that was in washington. right now, really special for "bloomberg surveillance." it has been one of the great experiments, and i don't mean the boston red sox back over the inspiration to go british. joining us, sam kennedy with the boston red sox. he was intimately involved in the acquisition of a small football team in the united kingdom. why don't you pick it up in celebration north of london? jonathan: i can tell you that having a red sox fan, anchor, that is almost unbearable , thatmes -- fan coanchor is almost unbearable sometimes. sam, what have you learned from your experience in the united kingdom? sam: we have learned a lot. there's still a lot more to learn, as you know. it is a global club with a following like no one else, but congratulations to michael edwards, billy hogan, everyone at liverpool that put this club back on top of the english premier league. quite an achievement, and we are very excited at fenway sports group. n

tom: your thoughts on the big banks? they are an area that investors have disliked for a while yet initially it was the shape of the yield curve, concerns about credit loss visions, but they are willing to trade up some other cyclicals around that area we wonder if this will lead to more disturbing and investor mindsets area may be the concern in trends turns more toward fintech area i think the stoxx themselves look area attractive lee valued right now on the back. there still is business activity out there. areit card businesses generally doing well. it is kind of hard to get a sense that things are awful in banks. there's some concern about the elections maybe, the democrats taking the senate as well as the white house, and maybe there will be some more bank bashing. but these are more speculation than anything real at this point. jonathan: great to catch up with you. tobias levkovich of citi. getting some headlines from chuck schumer, saying, "eva chin protection is not part of the "eviction ran -- protection is not

tom: there's no question about it. with the laborl economy folding into what we see in the stock market, futures up 22 right now, and maybe more everany time i have seen it, it is two separate worlds. jonathan: we do not change on the headlines coming out of hong kong. we stayed elevated on the s&p by around 0.7%. if we can get to the bond market, some data to look out for in the week ahead. we will have cpi coming out tomorrow and retail sales in america coming this thursday. ahead of that, pretty muted price action. your tin you will yield -- your 10 year yield coming up a single basis point. in the fx market, huge focus on europe through the week. the ecb decision coming up this thursday, and then fiscal authorities. european leaders meet this friday and into the weekend. can they find agreement on the next steps? euro-dollar positive. we move higher on the euro. just a slightly weaker dollar. one hour away from the opening bell. lewis alexander, nomura chief u.s. economist, joins us next. this is "bloomberg surveil

>> yes, i do, tom. blogwe emphasize in this that i just put out is that global debt is at this point in time at record levels. never in history has global public debt been so high. it is now above 100% of world gdp. it is so high because we are facing a crisis like no other. in that context, the fiscal response has been very quick and unprecedented. months, thefew response of fiscal policy is bigger than during the global financial crisis. you take together 2008, 2009, months0, in the last few , we are above the response of three years of financial crisis. that was absolutely appropriate lifelines totended households made vulnerable by the crisis. this enormous level of debt in a sense, compensated impact on the budget by these very low interest rates you are talking about. interrupt,t mean to sir, but because of time, i want to cut to the chase. el-erian on with us in the next hour. what is the t decision we are and threeto make two and five years out after we count up the trillions of dollars of debt?

tom? tom: thanks so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. after that huge correlated day yesterday, any number of reasons for that -- the chinese news, and of course kicking out dominion, the gas infrastructure. a big day yesterday. we give a little bit back. the vix at the 28 level gets my attention. john newman will talk about that in a moment i'm sure. what i emphasize with the data check is what is not going on. what is not going on is yields are moving, and we have seen basis points flattening in the last 24 hours. the equity markets, particularly tech market, totally delinked from what we see in the bond market. francine: that is a great angle that we need to spend more time on. i'm also looking at european stocks. they are dropping from a one-month high after we had germany data that is disappointing. it is industrial data and it was weaker than expected. that means there is uncertainty about exactly what path the recovery will take. , dollar expanding. treasuries not really moving. wti crude slipping toward $40 a barrel. warning us t