policy mistakes from central banks? guess what you are referring to is the proposal around that the holdings of central banks harboring debt should be canceled. thate same time, if you do at any financial institution -- central banks of capital -- if you go on in this course -- at the end of the day, what keeps credibility to the central bank is the backing, either implicit or explicit, but if you are to do that, at the end of the day, you are eroding the trust of the system we have today. thank you so much for joining bloomberg today. much more coming up. futures up seven. dow futures up 89. important interview on the state of private equity. david sandberg with apollo in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with francine and tom in london and new york. is on thehe focus news of the stimulus. a lot of focus on what will happen with brexit. boris johnson traveled to brussels to have dinner with the european commission president. stocks overall rising. near record highs in cert

bank of central banks ok this is the b. i asked that they don't print money like the u.s. federal reserve does and they oversee their collection of big baby bankers and jamie diamond and j.p. morgan are the biggest right there big giant baby in the corner screaming the loudest so there diaper is full list of all seeing is like somebody has to change that diaper one day and when you change that diaper all of that inflation comes flooding out and that's what his opinion writer. in the bloomberg article is pointing out is that part of what's happening is that china is booming right now they're a condom is booming in their exports are booming so we're actually starting to see genuine inflation that you can hide in jamie diamond type or prices are now rising strongly in part because asian growth is humming chinese export prices have risen year over year excluding oil industrial commodity prices are also now higher than they were at the end of last year even if nothing moves between now and late spring of 2021 year over year comp

are going as you point out they want the central bank to fix racism they want the central bank to fix climate change they want the central bank to affect inequality and this has become a cult over there more so than at any time and. you know gold certainly would be the one of the top beneficiaries of this money rampant money printing goal seems to be kind of stuck in a rut at the moment just pull back before a bigger move what's happening the fact is that gold is real genuine money and it trades at such so what is real money done doesn't like real money that doesn't pay a yield doesn't like rising real interest rates and this would still go in fact i want to record talking about a vaccine deadzone that would occur sometime towards the end of the year and i sold my miners and i sold 'd almost all michael now and we have 5 percent position in gold or you know after making a good return on it earlier this year. the fact is that your rising religious rates don't do not bode well for a silver and especially good because it's real money bitcoin on the other hand is not money in my opinion i

are going as you point out they want the central bank to fix racism they want the central bank to fix climate change they want the central bank to affect inequality and this has become a cult over there more so than at any time and. you know gold certainly would be the one of the top beneficiaries of this money rampant money printing goal seems to be kind of stuck in a rut at the moment it is this just a pullback before a bigger move what's happening the fact is that gold is real genuine money and it trades at such so what is real money done doesn't like real money that doesn't pay a yield doesn't like rising real interest rates and this would still go in fact i want to record talking about a vaccine deadzone that would occur sometime towards the end of the year and i sold my miners and i sold almost all michael now and we have 5 percent position in gold or you know after making a good return on it earlier this year. the fact is that your rising religious rates don't do not bode well for a silver and especially go because it's real money bitcoin on the other hand is not money in my op

are going as you point out they want the central bank to fix racism they want the central bank to fix climate change they want the central bank to fick inequality and in this has become a cult over there more so than at any time and. you know gold certainly would be the one of the top beneficiaries of this money rampant money printing goal seems to be kind of stuck in a rut at the moment just pull back before a bigger move what's happening the fact is that gold is real genuine money and it trades at such so what is real money done doesn't like real money that doesn't pay a yield doesn't like rising real interest rates and this would still go in fact i want to record talking about a vaccine deadzone that would occur sometime towards the end of the year and i'd sold my miners and i sold 'd almost all michael now and have 5 percent position go or you know after making a good return on it earlier this year. the fact is that your rising religious rates don't do not bode well for a silver and especially go because it's real money bitcoin on the other hand is not money in my opinion it's a c

are going as you point out they want the central bank to fix racism they want the central bank to fix climate change they want the central bank to affect inequality and this has become a cult over there more so than at any time and. you know gold certainly would be the one of the top beneficiaries of this money rampant money printing gold seems to be kind of stuck in a rut at the moment it is this just a pullback before a bigger move what's happening the fact is that gold is real genuine money and it trades at such so what is real money done doesn't like real money that doesn't pay a yield doesn't like rising real interest rates and this would still go in fact i want to record talking about a vaccine deadzone that would occur sometime towards the end of the year and i sold my miners and i sold almost all michael now and we have 5 percent position in gold or you know after making a good return on it earlier this year. the fact is that your rising religious rates don't do not bode well for a silver and especially go because it's real money bitcoin on the other hand is not money in my op

are going as you point out they want the central bank to fix racism they want the central bank to fix climate change they want the central bank to affect inequality and in this has become a cult over there more so than at any time and. you know gold certainly would be the one of the top beneficiaries of this money rampant money printing goal seems to be kind of stuck in a rut at the moment just pull back before a bigger move what's happening the fact is that gold is real genuine money and it trades at such so what is real money done doesn't like real money that doesn't pay a yield doesn't like rising real interest rates and this would still go in fact i want to record talking about a vaccine deadzone that would occur sometime towards the end of the year and i'd still minors and i saw almost all michael now i have 5 percent position in gold or only 0 after making a good return on it earlier this year. the fact is that your rising religious rates don't do not bode well for a silver and especially go ringback because it's real money bitcoin on the other hand is not money in my opinion it

since 1987 that the central bank. didn't decide they needed to bail out warren buffett and the folks on wall street had they not bailed those guys out even a once over the past 25 years america would not be losing its empire and handing it over to china keep that mind don't blame me blame greenspan to keep with this metaphor they were using had they just changed their diaper of the banking system at least once and now instead we have this horrible situation there's no way to address the fact that you haven't changed the baby's diaper in 4 days it's going to be no matter what it's going to be a gruesome situation when you go in there to change it and nobody's happy like the baby's crying you're crying you're stressed out the central bankers are stressed out and you start to make bad decisions and like this just to put things interest perspective the volume of negative yielding debt has topped 18 trillion dollars for the 1st time ever after e.c.b. promised to keep printing press rumbling for longer than expected as i'm

bank of central banks ok there's the be i ask that they don't print money like the u.s. federal reserve does and they oversee their collection of big baby bankers and jamie diamond and j.p. morgan are the biggest right there big giant baby in the corner screaming the loudest so there diaper is fullest of all sin is like somebody has to change that diaper one day and when you change that diaper all of that inflation comes flooding out and that's what's his opinion writer in the bloomberg article is pointing out is that. what's happening is that china is booming right now they're a condom is booming in their exports are booming so we're actually starting to see genuine inflation that you can hide in jamie dimon type or prices are now rising strongly in part because asian growth is humming chinese export prices have risen year over year excluding oil industrial commodity prices are also now higher than they were at the end of last year even if nothing moves between now and late spring of 2021 year over year comparisons will start to look pretty dramatic as prices this sprin

the bank of international settlements makes the case for central bank cryptocurrencies. we are delighted to be joined by benoit coeure. thank you so much for joining us on "bloomberg surveillance." you put out a report among central banks which basically sets out the core principles for national and digital currencies. some central banks around the world are saying they are still evaluating. are you surprised by the pace of change we can see in this space? benoit: good morning and thank you for having me. i was surprised. i have been surprised. yearhas clearly been the research and experimenting has taken place. i am not surprised anymore. clearly there has been a big push to contact was payments -- contactless payments. thatine: do you see possibly changing in the future? benoit: no. i see central banks around the mainly aeatening -- as payment instrument and change around this. the system is changing at both ends. structures, we are bringing central bank money to these new infrastructures. we are seeing a lot of new customer friendly applications and new ways to pay. w

are going as you point out they want the central bank to fix racism they want the central bank to fix climate change they want the central bank to affect inequality and in this has become a cult over there more so than at any time and. you know gold certainly would be that one of the top beneficiaries of this money rampant money printing goal seems to be kind of stuck in a rut at the moment it is this just a pullback before a bigger move what's happening the fact is that gold is real genuine money and it trades at such so what is real money done doesn't like real money that doesn't pay a yield doesn't like rising real interest rates and this would still go in fact i want to record talking about a vaccine deadzone that would occur sometime towards the end of the year and i'd sold my miners and i sold almost all michael now and have 5 percent position in gold or you know after making a good return on it earlier this year. the fact is that your rising religious rates don't do not bode well for a silver and especially go ringback because it's real money bitcoin on the other hand is not mo

ever since 1987 that the central bank. didn't decide they needed to bail out warren buffett and the folks on wall street had they not bailed those guys out even a once over the past 25 years america would not be losing its empire and handing it over to china keep that mind don't blame me blame greenspan to keep with this metaphor they were using had they just changed their diaper of the banking system at least once and now instead we have this horrible situation there's no way to address the fact that you haven't changed the baby's diaper in 4 days it's going to be no matter what it's going to be a gruesome situation when you go in there to change it and nobody's happy like the baby's crying you're crying you're stressed out the central bankers are stressed out and you start to make bad decisions and like this just to put things interest perspective the volume of negative yielding debt has topped 18 trillion dollars for the 1st time ever after e.c.b. promised to keep printing press rumbling for longer than expected as i'm

is this pandemic driven, central bank driven, robinhood driven? mark: central bank driven. it's not pandemic driven. i'm sure robinhood are playing apart but they are not the main driver. this is about institutional buying on the fact that central bank policy are eroding the value of fiat currency over time. i'm not surprised that five of the top 10 stories are about to bitcoin. we have a backdrop of broad dollar weakness but that again place to the theme. the dollar is weakening because the fed is attempting to weaken its currency and every central bank is trying to weaken its currency and weaken the value of fiat currencies. bitcoin is that theme on steroids, the idea that, hey, this is the new gold, digital where we arerld destroying fiat currencies. it also has the whole speculative component. all you need to do to make money is to buy it off at a higher price and at the early stage of a narrative shift, hey, we all need to own some of this in our portfolio, there's upside. i find the idea of taking an intrinsic value of $400,000 just completely ridiculous. i'm not sayi

bank of central banks ok there's the be i ask that they don't print money like the us federal reserve does and they oversee their collection of big baby bankers and jamie diamond and j.p. morgan are the biggest right there big giant baby in the corner screaming the loudest so there diaper is fullest of all seeing is like somebody has to change that diaper one day and when you change that diaper all of that inflation comes flooding out and that's what his opinion writer in the bloomberg article is pointing out is that part of what's happening is that china is booming right now their economy is booming and their exports are booming so we're actually starting to see genuine inflation that you can hide in jamie dimon stipe or prices are now rising strongly in part because asian growth is humming chinese export prices have risen year over year excluding oil industrial commodity prices are also now higher than they were at the end of last year even if nothing moves between now and late spring of 2021 year over year comparisons will start to look pretty dramatic as prices this spring were at

since 1987 that the central bank. didn't decide they needed to bail out warren buffett and the folks on wall street had they not bailed those guys out even a once over the past 25 years america would not be losing its empire and handing it over to china keep that mind don't blame me blame greenspan to keep with this metaphor they were using had they just changed their diaper of the banking system at least once and now instead we have this horrible situation there's no way to address the fact that you haven't changed the baby's diaper in 4 days it's going to be no matter what it's going to be a gruesome situation when you go in there to change it and nobody's happy like the baby's crying you're crying you're stressed out the central bankers are stressed out and you start to make bad decisions like this just to put things interest perspective the volume of negative yielding debt has topped 18 trillion dollars for the 1st time ever after e.c.b. promised to keep printing press rumbling for longer than expected as i'm sayi

at what point do we start to see latin america central banks begin to normalize? emily: brazil will be an interesting case to 2021. i think it will be one of the first emerging-market central banks to turn to rate hikes and one of the first to start the normalization crisis -- normalization process. especially when we have a return to normalcy, places like brazil are not able to keep the emergency rate cut policy they have now. 2% in brazil right now feels like 0%. they will not keep that for the duration of the year, particularly as inflation comes back. we will start to see yields rising and the currency coming back with a period advantage, which will be noticeable for brazil. romaine: i am curious do how much of these em banks follow the fed. it seems like in years past you could set your watch by what the fed does. that correlation seemed to break down over the next year. is that correlation going to return? emily: that is a great point. it seems like we are entering this place where the emerging-market central banks will be on hold for a while. that will be t

banks but injected into the economy and to really disrupting banks and using nice central bank digital currencies to bypass the financial system yeah i want to stick on the point you just made there about america sent us dollars to china china's got $1.00 trillion dollars in addition to setting dollars to china. america over the past sense china joined a world trade organization america spent sending their jobs to china so merica sentence jobs and its cash to china and then the central bank here in the us says there is down inflation where you have to keep printing money to try to create inflation and people in america are left dumbstruck because they don't understand anything that's coming out of the federal reserve it doesn't make any sense to them oh how do they get away with saying there's no inflation if they have as you point they have set the inflation to china and it along with the jobs right so it's a structurally structural attack on the economy that they're masking behind this phrase oh we're trying to create a freight inflation simon china because it has. these dollars they

banks but injected into the economy and to really disrupting banks and using nice central bank digital currencies to bypass the financial system yeah i want to stick on the point you just made there about america sent us dollars to china china's got $1.00 trillion dollars in addition to setting dollars to china. america over the past sense china joined a world trade organization america spent sending their jobs to china so merica sentence jobs and its cash to china and then the central bank here in the us says there is down inflation where you have to keep printing money to try to create inflation and people in america are left really dumb struck because they don't understand anything that's coming out of the federal reserve it doesn't make any sense to them oh how do they get away with saying there's no inflation if they have as you point they have set the inflation to china and it along with the jobs right so it's a structurally structural attack on the economy that they're masking behind this phrase oh we're trying to create a freight inflation simon more china because it has compan

bank of central banks ok there's the be i ask that they don't print money like the u.s. federal reserve does and they oversee their collection of big baby bankers and jamie diamond and j.p. morgan are the biggest right there big giant baby in the corner screaming the loudest so there diaper is full of all seeing is like somebody has to change that diaper one day and when you change that diaper all of that inflation comes flooding out and that's what's his opinion writer. in the bloomberg article is pointing out is that part of what's happening is that china is booming right now they're a condom is booming in their exports are booming so we're actually starting to see genuine inflation that you can hide in jamie diamond stipe or prices are now rising strongly in part because asian growth is humming chinese export prices have risen year over year excluding oil industrial commodity prices are also now higher than they were at the end of last year even if nothing moves between now and late spring of 2021 year over year comparisons will start to look pretty dramatic as prices

i don't expect more stimulus for asian central banks. i don't expect significantly more stimulus as well from advanced economies. as we don't have a policy mistake, it will be a big risk for 2021. if policymakers remove a lot of this accommodation that they provided to the market, the output gap is still quite large. that will compel policymakers and central banks particularly, whether it's in e.m. or an advanced economies, to keep monetary policy settings very loose. look at advanced economies. a lot of those central banks have now adopted monetary policy strategies that will allow for inflation overshoot. even if we do have a pickup in inflation, central banks are fromely to remove the rum the punch bowl anytime soon. i think we are still in the sweet spot of the cycle. there will continue to be very favorable for risk sentiment and financial market sentiment is well. manus: what's the currency hedge for the inflation risk if it comes? we've been waiting for an inflation spike for quite some time. the 10 year breakevens are kissing the

account with the central bank. to get to the financial system the job of ensuring within countries or across countries. finance is not going to be crypto. it is going to be fintech, where there is an evolution in payment systems, insurance, asset management. fintech is based on ai, big data, and digital. the future of money and finance is not decentralized. it is not blockchain. it is centralized. this has been fabulous to see the delicacy of benoit coeure and then dr. roubini with us. thank you for joining us. i know twitter is on fire over this conversation. this is what we love to do. this is very special. allen's that there of morgan zetner of- ellen morgan stanley to join us. futures up 12. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." it is jobs day in america. lots of other news as well. we are watching for any news on the pandemic and hospitalizations across america and the world. on the data front, lift to the market. the 30000 and futures up 119. the vix 21.07. it will be amaz

banks but injected into the economy and to really disrupting banks and using nice central bank digital currencies to bypass the financial system yeah i want to stick on the point you just made there about america sent us dollars to china china's got $1.00 trillion dollars in addition to setting dollars to china. america over the past sense china joined a world trade organization america spent sending their jobs to china some america sentence jobs and its cash to china and then the central bank here in the u.s. says there is down inflation where you have to keep printing money to try to create inflation and people in america are left dumbstruck because they don't understand anything that's coming out of the federal reserve it doesn't make any sense to them oh how do they get away with saying there's no inflation if they have as you point they have set the inflation to china in it along with the jobs right so it's a structurally structural attack on the economy that they're masking behind this phrase oh we're trying to create a freight inflation simon more china because it has companies

banks but injected into the economy and to really disrupting banks and using nice central bank digital currencies to bypass the financial system yeah i want to stick on the point you just made there about america sent us dollars to china china's got $1.00 trillion dollars in addition to setting dollars to china. america over the past sense china joined a world trade organization america spends sending their jobs to china so america sentence jobs and its cash to china and then the central bank here in the us says there is down inflation where you have to keep printing money to try to create inflation and people in america are left dumbstruck because they don't understand anything that's coming out of the federal reserve it doesn't make any sense to them oh how do they get away with saying there's no inflation if they have as you point they have set the inflation of china in it along with the jobs right so it's a structural a structural attack on the economy that they're masking behind this phrase oh we're trying to create freight inflation simon more china because it has. these dollars

banks but injected into the economy and to really disrupting banks and using nice central bank digital currencies to bypass the financial system yeah i want to stick on a point you just made there about america sent us dollars to china china's got $1.00 trillion dollars in addition to setting dollars to china. america over the past sense china joined a world trade organization america spent sending their jobs to china so merica sentence jobs and its cash to china and then the central bank here in the us says there is down inflation where you have to keep printing money to try to create inflation and people in america are left dumbstruck because they don't understand anything that's coming out of the federal reserve it doesn't make any sense to them oh how do they get away with saying there's no inflation if they have as you point they have set the inflation of china in it along with the jobs right so it's a structural a structural attack on the economy that they're masking behind this phrase oh we're trying to create freight inflation simon china because it has companies told us they h

coming up on daybreak asia, keeping a watch on the central banks. a plot of all of them -- a plethora of them. we previewed those decisions out of asia. next, she is writing at her portfolios. focus on the door asia region. of course you have the market open intel and tokyo coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: welcome to "daybreak: asia." i am shery ahn. haidi: and i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. asia edge major markets have opened for trade. asia looks to follow wall street higher as the fed chair says the need for physical action is strong. he also says he will not raise rates until inflation is on track. aussie dollar trading near a two year high ahead of monthly job numbers. november 20 is public reading is out in half an hour. at bitcoin topping $20,000 for the first time prompting higher bets. 30,000. lender sees marketet a check of the action with tokyo and seoul coming online. >> likely to see muted needs ahead of the decision on friday where it's bondage when plans are very much in focus. this had trading steady. u.s. bank sayin

housing affordability from the new zealand central bank. we are talking about things like climate change at the bank of canada. powell talking more and more about racial inequality, as he should. these are central banks shifting their perspective to a broader mandate than just inflation to point -- 2% or they will be happy to allow short-term over shoots. tom: let's go over to secretary yellen and the future of stimulus in america. take all of that you have said and frame it into the amount of stimulus through this pandemic. 500 billion dollars, $908 billion is ok? ofl there be trillions dollars of stimulus, or are you or $6ting $4 trillion trillion of stimulus will be required? frances: i am expert thing persistent, continuous stimulus without an end date or number. we are seeing a shift towards demanding a larger size of government. we are demanding the government take over the reins of central banking to address very large inequalities, to address the need to shift to a greener economy. we are moving towards a government that will become

the central bank of switzerland cannot qe -- cannot use qe. they would not be able to use quantitative easing. using fxthey are intervention instead. given the huge amount of quantitative easing by the federal reserve, is it a case of, you know, the pot calling the kettle black? the millionguess dollar question is we also have the administration taking over in the u.s. does the treasury under joe biden take a hard line like this administration, toward switzerland and other countries? jane: that is going to be interesting to see. i don't expect there will be a very swift change. the new administration is going to watch and see what develops over the next few months. generally speaking, the market is expecting to follow bellicose response with this administration. the new administration is expected to build bridges, and some of those bridges that trump has knocked down. i think generally speaking, the treasury perhaps we'll take a step back. i again, the term currency manipulator is not drawn just from the convention but from three terms. herewh

banks but injected into the economy and to really disrupting banks and using nice central bank digital currencies to bypass the financial system yeah i want to stick on the point you just made there about america sent us dollars to china china's got $1.00 trillion dollars in addition to setting dollars to china. america over the past sense china joined a world trade organization america spent sending their jobs to china so merica sentence jobs and its cash to china and then the central bank here in the us says there is down inflation where you have to keep printing money to try to create inflation and people in america are left dumbstruck because they don't understand anything that's coming out of the federal reserve it doesn't make any sense to them oh how do they get away with saying there's no inflation if they have as you point they have set the inflation of china in it along with the jobs right so it's a structural a structural attack on the economy that they're masking behind this phrase oh we're trying to create freight inflation simon china because it has companies told us they

banks but injected into the economy and to really disrupting banks and using nice central bank digital currencies to bypass the financial system yeah i want to stick on the point you just made there about america sent us dollars to china china's got $1.00 trillion dollars in addition to setting dollars to china. america over the past sense china joined a world trade organization america spends sending their jobs to china some america sends its jobs and its cash to china and then the central bank here in the us says there is down inflation where you have to keep printing money to try to create inflation and people in america are left dumbstruck because they don't understand anything that's coming out of the federal reserve it doesn't make any sense to them oh how do they get away with saying there's no inflation if they have as you point they have set the inflation of china in it along with the jobs right so it's a structural a structural attack on the economy that they're masking behind this phrase oh we're trying to create a freight inflation simon more china because it has companies

we will see central banks come in. , think there is a good chance the one to watch is the central bank of the u.k., where we could get negative rates sometime in q1, maybe early q2. attention --rn our stateside, that could be a source of volatility. the georgia runoff election is going to take place, it is a coin toss at this point, but it is going to have a massive impact if it goes to democrats because it would allow the biden administration to take the gloves off to deliver huge fiscal stimulus. i am hearing up to $5 trillion. how would that change your perception of the way you want to invest in 2020 if you were to see that huge fiscal wave washed over the u.s.? in a normal situation, the first word to come to your head would be inflation. inflation taking calls, that is -- for any risk market. that is the risk we face. the market immediately jumps into inflationary mindset. i think it could take two to three years for growth to work through all of the spare capacity left in markets because of the help and support the government has put in place during 2020 that have cap companies

matt: which central bank has the changetential to affect in this area. i know the ecb debates whether or not this should be its mandate, although christine lagarde is clear about what she thinks, and even those who question the mandate have said they need to check whether they are unintentionally supporting companies that are environmentally harmful with policies. all centralthink banks can have a critical role to play and can be influential if they allocate money to where it should be. this speaks to one of the problems in the market, even from a private sector standpoint, which is the definition of green activities. in europe, the regulators have the framework to define what should constitute as green activity come out which serves as a guidance for investors or the central bank to allocate capital. but we have not seen that across the board. the flip side is, if we have this framework which defines green activities, there is limited disclosure by companies. companies could be in the right industry, but without disclosures around how much their revenue

central banks have to watch their words. the risk that they imply that they will tighten monetary can create a numerous risks to financial markets. we could have a fresh tantrum among investors. the main aim of the central bank, the fed has its new target and strategy. banks, will put central inflation lower down will be the priority. there's a lot of communication challenges for the central banks in the year ahead. higher for longer on the balance sheets. that will probably be the guiding principle for next year. get what youant to think about what's going on with the bank of england. money markets yesterday pushing to march 2022bets compared to november due to the brexit agreement. the outline that we learned about yesterday. given the fact that we potentially have that agreement in place, could we see the boe act sooner? simon: i think that the new deal will be in a norm a sense of relief for the bank of england. negative interest rates on the table. not a huge amount of enthusiasm for those. suspect that the no deal brex

cambodia's new digital currency is backed by its central bank with a mobile transaction system. nhk world reports. >> reporter: cambodia has a population of more than 16 million. most people don't have bank accounts, but they do own smart phones. a new payment system was started in october. >> translator: this is the bakong app. >> reporter: the app allows users to send or receive e-money that has the same value as the country's currency, the real, as well as the united states dollar. there are no transaction fees between individuals. it's believed that about 80% of cambodians do not have a bank account. the introduction of bakong is expected to boost growth in financial services. >> translator: i use the app to buy things, receive money and transfer money to other banks. it's easy, quick, safe and effective. >> reporter: the central bank hopes the system will help to restore confidence in the real. many people are distrustful of the national currency, as its value has fluctuated sharply in the past. that's one of the reasons the u.s. dollar is in circulation. >> reporter: if th

>> we think we are at rock bottom for central banks. if i think about, maybe take it with a christmas theme here. think of themes on the naughty or nice list. the dollar probably deserves to be on the naughty list. it doesn't have a lot going for it at the moment. what do i mean by that? think about what happened between 2014 to 2020. higher interest rates in the u.s. slowing an uncertain global growth environment not only because of the u.s.-china trade war and covid in early 2020. now there is no interest rate advantage in u.s. it has been eroded completely which has bearish implications for the dollar. global investored have allocated a large amount of fundes into thist. they are going reallocate those overlays. also the fact there is no interest rate advantage means it is much cheaper to hedge foreign investors holding u.s. dollar assets until we think the change in that hedge rate behavior continues to weigh on it. the growth environment is very different. you have moved from a multi-year period of very slow, anemic, slowing global

do not think central banks will raise rates next year. most economists don't either. what about the liquidity mentioned in your opening segment? discount is tough to in its entirety. we don't always know exactly where it ends up. ow centralurse, kn banks will buy a lot of government bonds, the fed will buy agency mortgages. those assets can discount those flows ahead of time because we know they will happen. what about the second and third moves for that liquidity? where does it go? that is something markets will only be able to fully discount when those happen and they have not happened yet. jonathan: let's talk about what we are discounting at the moment, for the back half of next year and what is being priced in. fixed assets, equities. a bond market that is stable. nominal yields not doing much. inflation expectations building. real yields much more negative. will nominal stay stable? base case? free we think the risk assets, the treasury market were tong -- will going compete. willovernment bond market have to do work to compete for

bankers around the world at the federal reserve the european central bank christine lagarde and the bank and believe the problem is latin quitted the problem is going to be lack of solvency knew give an insolvent institution more allor in news burns that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems you've got so many triple b. lines so much sure will be debt that's out there that can never be repaid italy's that they can never repay all that they have it's when interest rates are at historic lows basically they make interest rates at 0 so they never painted black well eventually wants not lines like the biggest buyer of european bonds is the european central bank and what i've been saying for many years is we saw this happen in japan and we have learned absolutely nothing from this 3 last decade they have sealed monetary policy the japan i mean intense 0 growth 0 growth for the past 30 years and. and actually meet on market they own all the options a fixed income market doesn't trade there at all and that's exactly what we're doing here except it's not going to work in europe

bankers around the world at the federal reserve the european central bank christine lagarde and the bank and believe the problem is lack of quid the problem is going to be lack of solvency new given insolvent institution we're all are in news burns that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems and you've got so many triple b. lines so much sure will be debt that's out there that can never be repaid in a leads that they can never repay all that they have it's when interest rates are at historic lows basically they make interest rates at 0 so they never painted back well eventually wants not lines like the biggest buyer of european bonds is the european central bank and what i've been saying for many years is we saw this happen in japan and we have learned absolutely nothing from the street last decade they have sealed monetary policy the japan i mean intense 0 growth 0 growth for the past 30 years and. and actually. on market they own all the options a fixed income market doesn't trade there at all and that's exactly what we're doing here except it's not going to work in e

bankers around the world at the federal reserve the european central bank christine lagarde and the bank and believe the problem is latin quitted the problem is going to be lack of solvency knew give an insolvent institution more allor in news burns that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems you've got so many triple b. lines so much sure will be debt that's out there that can never be repaid in a leads that they can never repay all that they have it's when interest rates are at historic lows basically they may make interest rates at 0 so they never paid back well eventually wants not lines like the biggest buyer of european bonds is the european central bank and what i've been saying for many years is we saw this happen in japan and we have learned absolutely nothing from the street last decade they have sealed monetary policy the japan i mean intense 0 growth 0 growth for the past 30 years and. and actually meet on market they own all the options a fixed income market doesn't trade there at all and that's exactly what we're doing here except it's not going to work in

bankers around the world at the federal reserve the european central bank christine lagarde and the bank and believe the problem is lack of quid the problem is going to be lack of solvent new give an insolvent institution more allor in news burns that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems you've got so many triple b. lines so much sure will be debt that's out there that can never be repaid italy's that they can never repay all that they have it's when interest rates are at historic lows basically they make interest rates at 0 so they never painted black well eventually wants not lines like the biggest buyer of european bonds is the european central bank and what i've been saying for many years is we saw this happen in japan and we have learned absolutely nothing from this 3 last decade they have sealed monetary policy the japan i mean intense 0 growth 0 growth for the past 30 years and. and actually. on market they own all the bonds a fixed income market doesn't trade there at all and that's exactly what we're doing here except it's not going to work in european market

michael: number one, central bank and central-bank support that we continue to need because we still have some uncertainties in the near term about stimulus, the size of it. that can be the vaccine news is great, but we have to be realistic it is going to take time. i don't hope we are going to get a third wave of this virus before we had the vaccine rolled out but it doesn't look good in many countries, germany going --k into locked down lockdown, switzerland not great, either and the u.s. with nobody really at the helm, you have three difficult months ahead of us and those uncertainties are more important than brexit or anything else. francine: when you look at central banks support, the biggest question is whether inflation is coming. given what we knows of far, even if we have a vaccine middle of next year and we reach herd immunity third quarter of next year, what is the likelihood that pushes up inflation? michael: that is a big risk factor that we also see, but we do see the most imminent issue is actually what does that mean to gilts? if we have a -- yields. recoverye a stron

getting news from the european central bank, or rather news around it. this is coming from the team at bloomberg. european watchdogs are leaning towards extend -- extending the ban on thanksgiving and into next year while making -- while allowing some lenders make payoffs if they show significant financial strength. looking at bank equity, the lows are going into this call about 20 minutes away, down 1.45%. an erosionooking at of yield, the real yield in the u.s. down to 1.0081. when we see these announcements, and not just the press conference but the pending announcement that john sliced through, these could really move these markets further. jonathan: it is so difficult for the banks and the bankers will tell you that part of the attractive propositions, one of the few of them was what they offered in the buyback capital return program, the capitals and the dividends and the regulators have prevented that in europe and elsewhere. the monetary policy decision that comes in and about 20 minutes, we will talk about qe, size, and duration, but there will

poor growth, central bond and central-bank purchases. but when you think about it, it is really a function going forward of what do investors expect to earn. we think those numbers are going to be very poor for a long time. we think that is a good policy choice. tom: we talked to randall kroszner, former fed governor, about this as well, the choice that the fed has, or any central bank, to deal with the unwinding of all of this given that effect out over time. how do you perceive if they will unwind out of this, given the new duration we are all living? mike: no time soon. it is really interesting to think about the degree to which central banks have been super involved in markets for the last decade plus, since the financial crisis. there was maybe a year or two when they stepped back somewhat, but that is gone. we think central banks will be huge players for a long time. tom: this dovetails right into into kostin's reframing 2023. i think we will see a lot of that coming up. jonathan: we heard the ecb framing it out to 2021. so we get

bankers around the world at the federal reserve the european central bank christine lagarde and the bank and believe the problem is lack of quid the problem is going to be lack of solvency new given insolvent institution we're all are in news burns that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems and you've got so many triple b. lines so much sure will be debt that's out there that can never be repaid italy is that they can never repay all that they have it's when interest rates are at historic lows basically they may make interest rates at 0 so they never painted black well eventually wants not lines like the biggest buyer of european bonds is the european central bank and well i've been saying for many years as we saw this happen in japan we have learned absolutely nothing from the street last decade they have sealed monetary policy the japan i mean intense 0 growth 0 growth for the past 30 years and. and actually. on market they own all the options a fixed income market doesn't trade there at all and that's exactly what we're doing here except it's not going to work in eu

bankers around the world at the federal reserve the european central bank christine lagarde and the bank and believe the problem is lack of quid the problem is going to be lack of solvency knew give an insolvent institution more allor in news burns that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems you've got so many triple b. lines so much sure it will be debt it's now clear that can never be repaid italy's that they can never repay all that they have it's when interest rates are at historic lows basically they may make interest rates at 0 so they never painted black but eventually wants not lines like the biggest buyer of european bonds is the european central bank and what i've been saying for many years is we saw this happen in japan and we have learned absolutely nothing from the street last decade they have sealed monetary policy the japan i mean intense 0 growth 0 growth for the past 30 years and. and actually. on market they own all the options a fixed income market doesn't trade there at all and that's exactly what we're doing here except it's not going to work in eur

bankers around the world at the federal reserve the european central bank christine lagarde and the bank and believe the problem is lack of quid the problem is going to be lack of solvency new given insolvent institution we're all are in news burns that it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems and you've got so many triple b. lines so much sure will be debt that's out there that can never be repaid in a leads that they can never repay all that they have it's when interest rates are at historic lows basically they make interest rates at 0 so they never painted black well eventually wants not lines like the biggest buyer of european bonds is the european central bank and what i've been saying for many years is we saw this happen in japan and we have heard absolutely nothing in the street last decade they have sealed monetary policy the japan i mean intense 0 growth 0 growth for the past 30 years and. and actually. on market they own all the options a fixed income market doesn't trade there at all and that's exactly what we're doing here except it's not going to work in euro

europe's central bank says it will do more to help lead the country's b.c.b. boosting its bond buying program to keep cheap cash flowing around the block. welcome to the show i'm stephen beers in berlin. germans woke up thursday to a shocking headline nearly 30000 new coronavirus infections registered in one day the most yet in a single day and the latest sign that the 2nd wave is careening out of control in the country and could take parts of the economy with it one more reason for broader help perhaps to that end the european central bank announcing thursday that it's expanding its already massive monetary stimulus program as the pandemics impact on the eurozone economy drags on the e.c.b. said it's adding an extra $500000000000.00 euros to its bond buying fun taking the total pot to $1.00 trillion euros rather it's also keeping interest rates at historic lows. the record number of new coronavirus cases comes as a shock for many germans and it suggests tougher lock downs are more likely than ever. store owners could suffer from stricter measures they may hav

how concerned do you think we should be about central banks thinking enough is enough here? alan: i think we are in the problems we've consistently had over the past 30 or 40 years, whereby if we have an asset cycle which is detached from the goods and services inflation cycle, used to have lagging disinflation in the goods and services sector, and the six ordinary asset inflation developing. it is not the worst problem to have. as you suggest, it could bode for financial stability problems, but i would have this problem rather than asset prices deflating as well. so i think they will avoid standing in harm's way and see that the vaccine does deliver on its promises. when that is the case, i think they can much more seriously take away the punch bowl . the first quarter call i think would be just adjusting the scales of the increases we see from the major central banks. they retreat,y and then wait and see how the vulnerable?ond because we could alan: i think we are looking way ahead of the game here. you're absolutely right, markets respond these days to an extra ordinary e

this has been a huge headache for the central bank. authorities looking at ways they can stop this appreciation of the currency. nifty opening flat as we await the start of the trading day. 10 year yields steady. the moment bonds at -- going to have a little bit of volatility as we get operation twist taking place in short while with 100 billion worth of rupees. talking about the bond buying purchase program, the fed sending a clear signal that it leaves no doubt it will keep on providing monetary stimulus until the economy no longer needs it. kathleen hays is here with more. the fed is going to keep on buying bonds until it is closer to its employment, which is crucial and inflation goals. optimism fromme jay powell. kathleen: as juliette mentioned, needsraders -- if the fed to do more, all it can do is do more on the bond of purchase front. they expected some kind of announcement. probably say we are going to buy long-term bonds. the fed added forward guidance on bond purchase program as it has had on its monetary policy interest rat

of england in the global central banks are printing money over time now. to try to preserve the vestiges of this neo feudal class that's still clinging to power is still thinks that the kobe you know infection is not going to attack them because they have a title in front of their name right so that kind of imbecility and intense british stupidity won't really work in the face of a tsunami of bunny for all the wealth that's based on money in britain is about to go into a hyperinflationary collapse against bitcoin sorry that you're poor but life is life but it's in the united kingdom it's in europe it's in the united states especially said the 3 very powerful central banks that get to print money for an elite class of people. you know the brits are former empire so they're not the center of power like the united states so they get to call themselves the right honorable because they don't have power right so they have to come up with names to make them feel less horrible about themselves like on the right honorable us they see herbert technically on a war i'

central banks do not want to take their foot off the gas. and we are entering an economy now that is recovering. some are thinking about raising -- they i think about raising rates. they do not know how they are going to end it, and what they are going to keep doing is what they are doing for now. whilel not end well, but the music is playing that is the direction for next year. tom: patrick armstrong with us, thank you so much. we are looking at brexit headlines at the top of the hour. they are challenging to say the least. .36,d sterling confirms 1 stronger through the morning, giving way in the last 20 minutes, now at 1.3590. they are little moves, but they go with the speculation that we will get out of those leaders. fishing is front and center. lisa: it really ties into this question of political gain mentioned and how this has been -- game and ship and how it has been buffeting -- buffering the markets. people are becoming numb to the deadline type story, which you are seeing in washington and in the u.k. that seems to be what we are