this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: bloomberg surveillance. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. we digress and do so with a book that has perfect timing. we are picking up the pieces after the pandemic. it is a miracle of these vaccinations, pfizer, moderna. we were told today we should not fear the astrazeneca vaccine. that was world making headlines. dr. fauci on msnbc with the same tone. walter isaacson shows up to rescue us. you know him from the accessible steve jobs, you know him from da vinci, and now the code breaker, perfectly timed around the end of this pandemic. walter isaacson, thank you for writing this book. it is about the path of our genome from watson and crick forward. what was the biggest surprise in writing the code breaker? walter: how important rna turns out to be. a microbiologist from way back -- everyone was looking at dna. the main character in my book jennifer and her partners realize that rna does the real work. rna takes the information it builds protein in ourselves. that is how the pfizer moderna vaccine worked and the important thing is you can r

tom: can i the clubhouse? jonathan: i still don't understand it. tom: is it a dating site? jonathan: he is wearingadidaas to clubhouse. it is an audio thing. lisa, are clearly not up on it either. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> within days, millions of americans will start receiving the $1400 payments included in the pandemic relief bill. the house has given final approval to the package and president biden will sign it into law tomorrow. one point nightly and dollar legislation also extends supplemental unemployment benefits was that our health insurance subsidies and child tax credits. lawmakers in china have taken a big step toward limiting opposition in hong kong's political system. the national people's congress approved an extensive overhaul of how the city chooses its leaders. there will be a committee to ensure candidates in hong kong are "patriots." that will effectively and open e --nd open elections. spacex rocket was once today in florida. musk ice jeanette service that has more than 1100 satellites orbiting the earth. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at qui

tom: i did. lisa: how did that go. tom: i am still all-cash. brian moynihan, bank of america, look for that at the 12:00 hour. david westin with that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotr

the semiconductors are expected to have 28% higher level of profits-- tom: tom: ok -- tom: ok, just because of time, this is so important. if we get a 6%, 7% gdp bubble, is it just going to be one big share buybacks like we saw from intel from over a decade? david: we are two months into the year and we have had near record levels of authorization to approve -- [no audio] -- this year, so that is a reflect me to have their management. better cash flows. who had cash? but the biggest source of cash is individuals. you had about a $500 billion diminution reduction in money market mutual fund assets in the last several months. a lot of that is zero rates is going into equities, and a lot of it going to the stock market. you had 175 specs -- to the spac market. you had 175 spac's this year alone. tom: are you going to do a spac with jan hatzius? is that what we are looking forward to? [laughter] jonathan: i thing mr. sullivan might have other ideas. david kostin, goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist. president biden will announce today -- for the johnson & johnson one-shot vaccine. tom: l

we are off to the tom: races this morning. tom:-- we are off to the races this morning. tom: there is the back and forth, and you see jon and all that. 6% plus gdp. that is not a normal statistic. jonathan: global growth gifts a hike. look at how things have changed. since the end of october, november, the forecast, u.s. growth from the oecd, 3.2 percent. what is it now? 6.5%. that has been behind the rally in small caps. that has been behind the huge lift in yields we are seeing in the last several weeks. tom: as you mention in the last hour, a simple idea of rotation. the quality of it and the back-and-forth. the sum of it is the big -- jonathan: everyone now is -- tom: even i am a rate strategist. jonathan: whether you are an fx strategist in e.m., you are playing off the same story. lisa: i don't think we have talked about this enough, that janet yellen came out yesterday and reiterated she does not seem this -- see this stimulus effort fostering an inflation problem. this has been the real underpinning behind the selloff in the bond market. there has been a growing

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. i thought international women's day was wonderful yesterday. abby joseph cohen said it better than anyone, wipe away the gloom. up, up would go. jonathan: let's talk about the dominant call of the last month, from ellen's and her of morgan stanley -- from ellen zentner of morgan stanley, 6.5% growth for u.s. gdp in 2021. i think one of the most powerful things that could happen from the federal reserve tomorrow when they meet is upgrading those forecasts and keeping the dot plot most exactly where it is. tom: and michael mckee would say those forecasts really matter. what i think is important, from the oecd, it is not just about the united states. you can get that lift worldwide. jonathan: we see a plan downing d.c. -- to see a plan down in d.c. to make that much of a difference. the forecast for the u.s. is effectively doubled. does it really bleed over to the rest of the world, or does this just fueled the story of the u.s. decoupl

tom: that's the game of wall street. i looked up transitory on merriam-webster, and the big bed of transitory inflation, merriam-webster quotes john cochran of the university of chicago and their use of transitory. i would say that a more recent word. jon: i would imagine we are going to hear more of that tomorrow. lisa: i would argue that we are going to be hearing a lot of that, how is the fed going to parse through the economic boom and maintain easy money policies, i think it's important to point you bring up, where are we in the cycle? the discussion about morgan stanley and fading the small-cap trade speaks to that. if you follow the monetary stimulus or fiscal stimulus, have we already got in the bulk of that and is that behind in the u.s.? jon: how quickly this cycle moves will be a theme of this program. from new york here is the price action. shaping up as follows. we pull back from all-time highs on the s&p 500, down one single point. the u.s. 10 year 1.5986. mutual price action in foreign exchange. lisa: kind

tom: good morning, everyone.

tom: say that again. jonathan: 685 average. tom: average. that is 6 million, 7 million people employed over 10 months. lisa: the point he made is that if it is a services lad recovery, the productivity in each job is less. you need more people to go work in those restaurants. tom: that is old-school. jonathan: the reopening has started. governor abbott got things started. bottom line. tom: i don't know where we are on the clock. you just see the euro tagline? europe sales of new bonds exceed a good jillian -- gajillion dollars in record time. lisa: hold on one second. al in new jersey says he will let you charge the company amex if you bet on payrolls. jonathan: charge what? drinks? tom: we have to find someplace open. lisa: i'm going to take liberty. how about all of the above? jonathan: it was that your impression of? that is a mike mckee and impression. tom: going up 242,000. lisa: here we go. tom: what i know is red sox pitching is horrific. jonathan: this was the value part of the program. coming up, on the open in about 20 minutes, cre

, tom. everything. everything we've got. >> what evidence at his place do you have against me? >> that's all being worked on. trust me. >> okay, good. >> because there's stuff. >> you won't find anything against me. >> there will be -- there will be a car load of stuff going go to the crime lab. >> well, good. because you won't find one thing against me. >> reporter: when you left at the end of the first interview what did you think? did you think this is our guy? >> i thought clearly he was a suspect. he clearly had done some things that were very troubling. >> reporter: sure. but did that mean he was the killer? what will tom jaraczeski say if we asked him? >> >> coming up -- >> it's hard to accuse somebody of killing bryan. i was scared to death. i was worried that they were going to charge me that night. >> an arrest? hang on. could there be another person of interest in this case? >> we looked at him very seriously. >> when "dateline" continues. ♪ ♪ >> when "dateline" continues ♪

tom retires after both of us. tom is right to bring it up for us this morning. does it even matter in d.c. anymore like it used to? michael: it depends on which party you are talking to. after donald trump lost, the republicans suddenly got religious on the deficit. there will be a fight over that. the question is can we pay for it. the argument is that with interest rates as low as they are, as long as we can have the economy grow faster than the debt as a percentage of gdp, we can pay for it. you can almost go back 10 years to the start of the great financial crisis. it has not been a problem. we have not seen crowding out. we have seen interest rates do nothing but go down. it is going to be a great experiment, and we will see if they can make it work. tom: i'm feeling crowded out. jonathan: are you? in my crowding you out? is that why we are separated? tom: can you get my walker on the break? [laughter] jonathan: i got told off last time i said that. mike mckee, thank you, sir. lisa: dr. phil? i have him on sp

tom: it is a tough life. you are in the bahamas in february and into march and all of our viewers and listeners worldwide are in massive sympathy. you have a massive advantage of your distance from wall street. what is the zeitgeist right now that you are most in disagreement on? hugo: everybody is coming over to understand that growth will normalize. we are in disagreement inasmuch that we think that there is a strong wave of pent-up demand coming through in particular sectors. we are also in disagreement about whether inflation really matters yet. we are going to see angles on the cpl, but the fed is going to ignore it because they said they are going to ignore it. we are less worried about that. but what we are also thinking is that the best defense against an overshoot, which could happen later in the year, is through cyclical assets, traditional inflation hedges like commodities and actually do not defend by following, defend by staying ahead. including the fed in some way, many market participants are a

tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast on radio and television, and a monday simulcast different than others. we will talk about the boom economy into the jobs report friday. i will be here for you on friday when we see what is expected. maybe one million jobs. all pushed aside by a margin call, and it is not a movie. jonathan: so much speculation this morning. credit suisse involved in all of this. they say, "we are in the process of exiting positions." that was at 1:00 a.m. eastern time, so they were still in the process and still can't tell us the exact size of the loss. tom: we've not heard from morgan stanley yet. i guess we presume there will be a further unwind this morning. jonathan: i think you can make that assumption. the questions we have to ask and still haven't been answered i think come back to the banks. who handled this well? is it just the exposure, by goldman and morgan stanley are coming up a little more lately compared to nomura or credit suisse. what is it about no more and credit suisse t

can you translate tom? tom: no, i cannot translate. i'm trying to figure out where gonzaga is in the map. jonathan: a lot of people want to gonzaga. emailed me yesterday. tom: i do not make this up. john knows this because he had done it too. truman -- when i am doing sports , truman is in my ear telling the robot what to do. jonathan: this advantage we write -- have right now. tom: rich truman saved me on michigan go blue basketball yesterday. jonathan: i will keep my fingers crossed, but i know you like the color blue, tom. with mohamed el-erian, bloomberg opinion columnist. i will see what he has to say. we have a viewer saying rambles all the way, no idea. we talked e.m. and the bond market later. from new york city this morning, good morning. we will ask him if queens college can play basketball. what a week it has been, tom. tom: i will take next week off. jonathan: i think you are off next week, right? tom: i am going to hang with tyler they created. jonathan: have fun, i look forward to that. from new york city this morning, go

tom: it is a barbell. i go back to the dovetail of optimism in the economy, goldman sachs rejiggering their first and second quarter look, as you saw mike wilson and the team do at morgan stanley this weekend. i would say the cite ice right now, correct me if i'm wrong, the motel 6 i was at -- the site guist right now, -- the zeitgeist right now, correct me if i'm wrong, the motel 6 i was at had bad wi-fi -- jonathan: we need to discuss the beard. for our audience tuning in on radio and across the united states of america right now, the beard is in with tom keene. i've seen this before post-vacation. i am just trying to work out if it stays. tom: we've got our interns at our call banks. you can call in now if you like. but we started out a little light, but the score is it is building out. jonathan: let's do this for you. i will put this back on for the 9:00 show. tom: no, no. i put it on tuesday. jonathan: tired is going to stay on for the 9:00 show -- tie is going to stay on for the 9:00 show. i'm going

tom: it will be critical, john. we see a better u.s. gdp, a better payroll statistic, and it folds into a market that has a bid. jonathan: as we inch toward that report, that estimate creeping higher. 190 five the median view. tom: citigroup with 410,000. you wonder where it will go off adp. mike mckee said the link name --may not be so tight. the fed speak could be tangible. jonathan: i agree. we will catch up with jp morgan later with their view on the labor markets. yields violently hired this session. -- higher this session. the 10 year yield, 143. governor brainard pushing back. that may put a lid on things. tom: exactly. i am single little bit less negative, higher real yield this morning. i want you to compare and contrast the job owning of american fed speak versus the bloomberg article on ecb speak. jonathan: the top of the pile. they are comfortable with what they have seen. they call this a statement of confidence. inflation expectations going into february were rising. europe h

tom: and almost post pandemic era. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. we welcome all of you especially bloomberg 1130 in new york. our bloomberg affiliate in boston. joining us is derek jeter of the miami marlins, there chief executive officer. he launched himself into the stance a few years ago. the one yankee red sox fans respect. also with us is anthony hsieh from loan depot. they celebrate their announcement loan depot will sponsor the stadium and will be very visible for the miami marlins. anthony hsieh, you do loans for america, you do financing for america. what is your advantage to brand with derek jeter and the miami marlins? anthony: good morning. it is such an exciting day as i am sitting here at the new loan depot park. our partnership between two organizations, particulate with derek, is a natural fit. we are so enthusiastic about partnering with derek and the marlins organization and we cannot be more thrilled. tom: derek, it is the miami marlins you worked to improve and recast the franchise like in new york. where are you on that path? d

tom: you are spot on. there's only so much the fed -- i think the fed was hoping there would be a point where people continue to believe things are not that great or there's a prospect for to get slightly better or a little bit better. this is the narrative that jay powell has been pushing. at some point he will have to change his tone. at some point he is going to have to acknowledge things look good, because otherwise that is where the credibility part of the conversation comes into play. you cannot whistle past strong growth. let me be clear. the fed is not incentivized to make a forecast, things will look awesome at the end of the year. there is no sense for them to do that. i would rather they be late to the party. when things are ripping, from a growth or inflation perspective -- jonathan: you said at some point he has to address this. is some point march 4? tom: i think it is early. on some level, we have doing knowledge he keeps saying in the medium-term, down the road things will look better. i th

well done, tom. tom: this is important for global wall street. mark cabana on the high ground, for years at the open markets trading desk, the medieval black box of the trading floor. mark, jon and lisa are way better at this than i am. i just want to go to this idea of operation twist. is the chairman of the federal reserve going to twist and shout? i just don't believe it. mark: not where we sit today. we had written about a week and a half ago or so that it can did -- that if conditions continue to worsen in the bond market, we would see the fed. we have seen real rates fall. we've seen the 10 year decline about 10 basis points after the last week. it seems like the market is now finding its footing. if things don't get worse, there's no reason for the fed to do anything. that is what we anticipate at the meeting next week because the bond market has consolidated and found its own footing again. tom: i want you, with the heritage of bank of america, to calm the gloom crew down now. when you see articles that the short term paper market is goin

tom: finally we have jobs looming. jonathan: tom, if we get back to 0% on a real yield, growth equities are in trouble. tom: john, what are you going to do one honeywell comes out with 9% organic revenue growth? we are not prepared for that. jonathan: nope. good morning, alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we advanced not a 10th of 1% going into your payrolls report. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloombergtv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: senate democrats are bracing for a marathon session of votes on president biden's 1.9 trillion dollars stimulus package. tim's terrain in this didn't -- the spending bill will extend the timetable into the weekend. it is a balancing act for democratic leaders. they need a bill that gets the votes of all 50 democrats without asking a revolt by progressives. the u.s. and u.k. may impose more sanctions on russia, this time over the use of chemical weapons. bloomberg has learned the countries may target moscow. this week president biden joined the

tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. lots of stories today. john, i have to go to the 10 year yield. the litmus paper for chairman powell through 1.67. jonathan: this is a new post pandemic i've. several weeks back the chairman said it was a statement of confidence that the yields were higher at the long end. the key when a session will be fascinating later this afternoon. tom: it's that forecast adjustment, michael mckee is in attendance. and against us as the atlantic divide as the vaccine disaster is discussed. it's tangible. tom: but -- lisa: but who are they blaming? are they saying the vaccine does not work well enough or that it has not ramped up production enough? the european union considering emergency measures to ensure the vaccine supply. this comes at the same time as a slowdown in distribution of the astrazeneca vaccine despite dr. hama should all just saying they are wrong. tom: john, i need you to explain this. you have lead on this end it's not just the partition of europe and america, but of europe and the united kingdom. jon

tom: let's go there. does the politics link you into what we see in the bloomberg and economic data? i don't buy it for a minute, they are on a mission. emily: you saw with the last spending package that number did not change even as you start to see the economy get better and more people get vaccinated more quickly. part of this rests on campaign promises the biden administration feels they need to be keeping for americans. democrats have a tough midterm election coming up and they want to make sure they have been able to physically deliver something for the american people, in broader terms of something that is more long-lasting than that last stimulus covid package that we saw. jon: more than 3 million vaccinations in the united states of america on friday, the seven day average over the last seven days, the daily average is 7.1 million doses a day -- when do you expect to hear more from the cdc about what vaccinated people should be able to do considering the amount of vaccinated people in america is

tom: absolutely. what we are seeing is our team at bloomberg surveillance trying to get is the best guess on the moment. on inflation, it is david rosenberg, who claimed the partition of inflation, the subsectors of inflation. david rosenberg has been heated in his disagreement on the certitude of higher inflation. he joins us this morning. david, in our comments before this interview you went right to the heart of the matter, which is it is assumed supply will come on in a boom economy. you disagree. david: i actually think the supply with a lag will come back. obviously demand. we had a demand implosion last year. as the demand cratered much faster than supply did. now demand will come back at a faster rate than the supply side will. it is all very temporary. i do not think supply chains have been in disrepair for a permanent time period. of course we have the base effect we will work off of in the next several months, and inflation will probably get to 3.5%, maybe even higher. poor will test -- cor

we are off to the tom: races this morning. tom:

tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast this monday on radio, on television nationwide, indeed around the world. it is international women's day. we have a sterling set of guests throughout this hour and across all of bloomberg today. a wonderful effort by our booking team. we have to talk foreign-exchange as the centerpoint. michelle meyer, kathy jones, amrita sen, you've got to look at the dollar advancing. jonathan: a 92 handle on the dollar index. the outlook is better. higher real yields finally starting to bite into that issue in the u.s. dollar. tom: and i would suggest a 1.60 percent on this monday is better than the 1.60% 10 year yield we saw a moment ago. jonathan: we said straight after it, are you ready for bigger numbers? texas is reopening. others will follow. and we have just thrown $1.9 trillion at this. we are also sending people $1400 checks. you saw the retail sales print for january. what do you think that looks like in the next few months? tom: abby joseph cohen earlier re-emphasizing the op

tom: patients -- patience. i am looking to april 28, june 16, maybe they get where john herrman, maybe they get there. jonathon: maybe. i was see you in three years, lee said. lisa: incremental, maybe, but not when it comes to huge shifts in monetary policy where they are saying, this time it is different, no matter what until the end, 2023. jonathon: that tug-of-war does not go anywhere and it gets even more brutal as it progresses and we start to see the data they are forecasting. the naysayers who will not fold and are continuing to push back against the fed's new framework, that is going to get exacerbated when we see the data in the next several months. tom: we are going to do that data and we have a negative yield on the one-month generic government which is really extraordinary in the u.s. what i noticed yesterday is how chairman powell turned right when michael mckee mentioned -- turned white when michael mckee mentioned japan. jonathon: we talked to mike mckee a little bit later. good morning worldwide

tom: go to foreign-exchange, please. jonathan: thanks, tom. [laughter] dollar index, 92 handle, euro-dollar just south of $1.19. tom: i'm going to be honest, i think there's a nice little lift here. the vix comes in and equities do better over the last two hours. jonathan: up by three or four basis points, and no big fallout in the market right now. tom: you are just addicted to up 3% a day from the nasdaq, and that doesn't happen all like that. jonathan: where's the dow? lisa: wow. tom: the dow is up 118 points, there we go. jonathan: what does that mean? lisa: that's good. jonathan: sounds massive. tom: nailed it, jon. [laughter] jonathan: let's get to romaine. romaine: dow futures are in a little bit of a holding pattern. tom: there we go. love it. [laughter] romaine: of course, waiting on that fiscal vote in the auctions. that may constrain us from another 3% day, but we are seeing a lot of moves to the upside on some individual stories here. ge, larry culp finally making good on that strategy to continue to lean out ge, merging that leasi

tom: dr. mann, interest rates were splashy the last few days, with a huge employment number -- is that a one-off statistic, or are we going to see month after month after month way above the 200,000 norm we used to be used to? catherine: well, andrews has put out statistics on the u.s. economy even after the initial covid crash. he has been close to right, at least on the numbers, on terms of growth numbers. but there has been this really big this connect in the u.s. economy between what we see in terms of production numbers, which is gdp, and what we see in terms of employment numbers. there is just tremendous disconnect between the two. this is what the fed is challenged by. part of that is because the most labor-intensive sectors are the ones that have been closed off through the lockdowns, the services sector area. the storyline is that you maintain the very strong employment numbers and manufacturing, because everyone still has a lot of money to spend on goods, yet you open up the service

tom: not gloomy. jonathan: this is ♪ jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio for our audience worldwide. good news is good news. good news is bad news. good news is good news for the banks, the energy companies. good news is bad news for tech. yields are higher, eating into the tech names. the waiting on the s&p 500 for tech is massive. real yields higher. good news is bad news for italy, for europe. the 10 year yield on the month up 42 basis points on treasuries. on gilts, up 27. on the italian 10 year, up 22. are things better in europe, in italy? not yet. on the ecb board this week, maybe the comments you need to be paying attention to, that the tightening we are seeing in the united states is warranted. in the eu, it is unwarranted. yields are higher, is very much the opposite. they did a building out of a quiet, conservative, traditional business. sonali basak joins us right now, our chief wall street correspondent. was there any surprise here? they already had the inve

tom: thank you. we have the copyright for bloomberg intelligence print lisa abramowicz and tom keene, we go down to washington. washington removed from what the 10 year's doing. henrietta treyz knows everyone is looking at a better unemployment rate. this jobs report, the enthusiasm to get going on a $1.9 trillion stimulus. henrietta: thank you for having me. i think this jobs number is extraordinarily helpful to the narrative that spending in the covid bill is sufficient and we don't need to do more, maybe to the republicans' point, you don't need the fall $1.88 trillion. d.c. does not operate on a month-to-month basis. you need consecutive month over month growth, especially with the ups and downs in the employment data for the last year, to have something that actually sinks in and d.c. i would not expected to derail progress on this covid bill. it will probably be signed into law by this time next week. the next step will be full steam ahead on infrastructure package. something i constantly think

tom: chairman

tom: i agree. this weekend, i was looking around, ferro has the gulfstream this weekend, and i was up with the riffraff looking at commercial airways, and it is crazy. romaine: did you go to the grammys, tom? tom: i did not go. i said if dua lipa is not going to win, i not going. romaine: a lot of people i know are already booking vacations and travel for later this year. we have heard from airline executives saying they are actually concerned now about capacity later in this year, that they will not have enough seats. i guess that is good as far as pricing power, but if you are traveling, that could be an issue. a quick look at the board, another s&p reshuffling. nsb semiconductors. one's getting knocked out, zero's -- xerox getting the boot from the s&p 500. tom: a piece of history. blackstone and starwood to buy extended stay america for $6 billion from dow jones, maybe the first of a monday announcement of mergers. this dovetails with matt weekly or's -- matt winkler's great work on all the tim

tom: it is very lonely, the success of the united states and all of the medicine we heard from dr. adalja of johns hopkins a moment ago. the tape at 6:00 was grim, and it has simply gotten better here as we try to digest that hughes -- that huge move in the dow yesterday. jonathan: i will push aside that down move. a big session. tom: the russell 2000 moving as well. jonathan: they all are. the compare and contrast between the united states and the rest of the road right and was fascinating. europe struggling to roll out this vaccine. early bad news, and not just about the supply. it is now about the acceptance of the astrazeneca vaccine in the population. in china, pushback from the regulator about bubbles. then the you have the u.s., pedal to the metal. tom: overnight, ed morse publishing new ranges on oil, but is a range about idea? i don't think ranges are a bad idea right now. lisa: there has been a theme where generally, when you have a global resurgence, you have a weaker dollar. th

tom: getting up the intraday chart. new highs today. this started it to: 30 7 a.m. -- at 2:37 a.m. a move off of what chairman powell wrote yesterday. jonathan: the green light for this curve to go steeper. the federal reserve committed to sit on the front end. tom: i'm going to go back to the language early in the press conference where he said he is outcome. outcome-based to me is wait and wait and it's a massively exposed fed. if you read here allan meltzer, any frontline economist, all that means they will wait to see the data. >> those forecaster something else. lisa: 6.5% of the growth expectation. looking at full employment by the end of next year and still no rate hikes. a question, at one point -- what point will they care? it has not led to a material tightening in financial conditions but everyone will be watching credit spreads and other signs of possible tightening. jonathan: s&p 500 lower. emerging markets starting to see a move underway. yesterday was brazil with a 75 basis

tom: it is very

tom: radically different than what we've seen in modern history. the deployment to the lower quartiles of the american economic pie is tangible. this will be felt differently in the next six to 12 months. jonathan: that data is going to be booming in several months time. it's about how we respond to it. it's a psychological one. what do we look like at the turn of the middle of this year when that data is booming and how to market participants respond. tom: you had -- you texted me the morgan stanley right there. i would dovetail it with good news. this announcement by alaska leading the way in america where they will take vaccine of all above 16 years old is a bombshell. jonathan: more vaccines and slowly reopening across the nation. an upgraded forecast growth in america. lisa: this is the key question. people seem to reason further upgrading forecast. basically you got stimulus, you got the vaccine schedule. the question is how quickly do we move to midcycle. how quickly do people move

this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. bloomberg surveillance on radio and television worldwide. it is now a joy. an annual visit with craig moffett and michael nathanson of moffat nathanson. the founding partners. if you got their hands -- if you got your hands on their black book years ago you read it cover to cover. this year, the importance of our homes, our tv's, our kids come and what the future is for media. this is must listen for global wall street. i do not know who to begin with. i think craig moffett is better looking. michael, i'm going with craig. lisa: starting with the bank. -- starting with a bang. tom: craig, i was thunderstruck at the cord cutting that is going on. when the pandemic is overdue we continue to cut the cord? craig: thank you for having us on. it is always a pleasure. thank you and thanks for the kind words. we will continue to court cut. what michael and i have been writing about in the last year is this has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. we talk about two vicious cycles that have start

tom: in switzerland. jonathan: it is inconsistent with the outlook in europe, but driven by treasuries. treasuries are at the epicenter of this, and a policy decision in washington, d.c. is very much driving it, too. jonathan: i go credit -- tom: i go credit first after equities. what is so important to me is simply the calendar. april is here, and it is a boom economy. lisa: it is a boom economy as we head into a possible end of the pandemic. i want to tie bitcoin together with higher yields, the story of the day. tom: we are listening. lisa: this is important. this is what troy guy ascii -- troy gayeski was saying last week, of skybridge. it makes sense for bitcoin to rise in tandem with rising yields and expectations of more spending for the united states. tom: what i see in the bank uproar, the margin call uproar is what we don't know. there's a lot of news flow today, but what don't we know right now? jonathan:jonathan: we still don't know what the bank's new -- what the banks knew. it leads to one t

i appreciate that comment, tom. look, as we move forward here, there is a clear resetting by the biden adminstration in tone, but not in policy, from the previous administration. either way you look at this, from the body language in the room or the tone from the secretary of state, but from the policy standpoint, not much has changed. in terms of what the objectives are from the previous administration to the current one. tom: we are constrained on time. every expert writing on it. yes, there is hong kong and the new realities there. what are the new realities across the formosa strait? kevin: i think you get to a point where the broader relationship is incredibly strained, and it is in need of repair. jonathan: we talked yesterday about how impulsive foreign policy would be with this administration, or whether we would return to that story of orchestrating these things before they even happen. diplomats getting around the table and saying we will send our delegates, you senior delegation, and we will see what this

tom keene, yields are higher. tom: yields are higher on a relative basis. it is a stasis and a path to normality. we have all the fed speak coming up as they reset. what is important here from a fed angle is they do this after australia was very aggressive in saying enough. jonathan: pushing back last week and pushing back again. do you know the move last week on a treasury yield? seven basis points after a massive rally on friday. it was volatile. tom: i was off on sabbatical. it was an arduous friday for me. it continues today. the equity markets, 12 months trailing, coming off the depths of the pandemic. standard & poor's up 29%, nasdaq 100, jon, i wish i was not triple leveraged, all caps, up 54%. jonathan: the snapback has been unreal. lisa: the question in my mind is morgan stanley last night, where they said in general real rates where they rise can be positive for both equities and credit. however, if that rate rises associated with lower inflation expectations or a premature tightening of the federal reserve, or expectations of that, it could be ne

tom: cardinal versus ordinal. of course they knew there was leverage built, but you do not know the dollar amounts and you don't know the game theory of 5, 6, seven prime broker players of which are dominant. i suggest this as an amateur, goldman sachs and morgan stanley were dominant. the others were all part of the mix, and you don't know the math. jon: building on that, how are hedge funds building up these massive companies without ever needing to disclose what they own because they are technically a hedge fund and they don't technically own the underlying stocks. that is where the regulators will take a closer look i assume. lisa: to your point about why the banks would get involved, it is more lucrative to have these over-the-counter derivatives. they were earning more money when it seemed like a free-for-all and when it seemed the fed was backstopping all risk. this is why i keep saying, at a certain point, when you get markets normalizing, you get pockets of selloffs, at what point, given the fact there ha

tom: one final question. we will see a speech today with -- which many say shifts us from a tine of ronald reagan to the time is joseph biden as president. are we seeing a regime shift of our perception of government? john: i do not think so. the election that occurred last year in 2020, what it showed as a country that is very much divided. i don't think the biden administration is a mandate just as much of the trump administration didn't have a mandate. it is a combination of all of the above. that will likely create volatility for the markets. jonathan: good to catch up. what an afternoon we will have only get to the president of the united states as well addressing his spending plan. i know lisa has been doing the same thing, overwhelmingly looking at the spending side of things and not to think too much about what could happen with taxes. we have to spend more attention. tom: i defer to mr.'s are really on this, the attention on the first tuesday of november, 2022. that's when the infrastructure calculus

tom: good mo

tom: you are not looking at equity futures you are just getting out there is the benchmark of the day. look at the 10 year yield which speaks to any announcement and adjustment, this is possibly a chairman that will drive the yield higher. jonathan: the long end taken out of the high of friday's session. the front end it's about the forecast and that median. into 2023. that starts to signal that first rate hike. tom: the minutia of what can happen, it is the shock. we will explain that through the simulcast today. to me it's a little bit overwrought? they're going to do nothing but those forecast adjustments will be micro-analyzed. jonathan: those forecast for growth for unemployment we are set to see big revisions in line with what we are seeing on the street over the last several weeks. lisa: which raises the question what could make the market uncomfortable? everyone exciting the fed to raise their guidance. the key i'm looking for is what guides they will give around inflation rates th

tom: what does the new hong kong look like? enda: it is a big question, tom. activity has been shattered over the last your so. we are in another series of charges of pro-democracy activists. there's kind of a deck economy going on here. on the one side -- there's kind of a deck how to make going on here. on the one side, -- kind of a economy going on -- kind of a dichotomy going on here. on the one side, it is go on as normal. tom: how is the financial part of hong kong linkedin anyway to the people of hong kong? enda: it is about 1/4 of the economy, but the financial park it has plugged into what is happening with china. there's a lot of liquidity around and markets are booming. obviously, you can't implement a strict national security at law -- security law that hong kong has a boom ended being impacted, and terms of what it means for selling chinese stocks and bonds and the like. nobody is escaping this national security law crackdown in its entirety, but there is some divergence on the ground. you've got the financial market side of hong kong continuing,

tom: mr. mckee running all of our economics with perspective on chairman powell's comments later today. ethan harris with a wonderful performance for bank of america securities, their head of global economic research, particularly coming out of 2007 to 2009 we out front of the economics curve. an author of a book on the shift from greenspan to bernanke. another shift right now of how long chairman powell will be here. let's talk about the fed today. in your book on ben bernanke you talked about a demystified fed. you talked about the secrets of the temple. what are the secrets of the jay powell temple? ethan: jay powell is a continuation of this new generation of central bankers. you no longer have these greenspan decoder ring figuring out what you are saying. you are trying to be more transparent about what you are up to and very clear about the direction of policy. what has changed under powell is the fed was very frustrated by their inability to hit their inflation target in the last busine

tom: let's do the economics. the stimulus is totally different and its impact on american society limit -- than the many efforts we have seen since 2008. this is a stimulus that will move money to lesser, wealthy people and they will spend the money. the other idea is joe manshin of west virginia, we learned his power. jonathan: small margins, big consequences, georgia two seats, something that would have been smaller. let's get to the markets. nasdaq futures are 188. we see capital markets. you have noted that correlation between tesla and the s&p 500 is important. >> use to not be as important but now that tesla is a pretty large weight in the s&p 500 along with the rest of it, they are 50% of the cues and 25% of the s&p 500. they continue to weigh on the in feeds and the other thing we don't have is all the called buying that you had back in august of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. that has dropped like a stone in tesla and a lot of the mega cap tent -- tech names. the only positive i can give you is there wi

tom: it will be cr

tom: his forecast adjusted by the fed, we are seeing it with market economics like -- it was a day ago deutsche bank and peter huber going up to 2.25%. by the end of the summer -- there is no summer in london, but summer happens soon in new york. jonathan: 2.25% at deutsche bank. yields are high going into this news, rents. the chairman -- this news conference. he has threatening 170. -- he is threatening 170. tom: how many times are we going to hear " transitory" today? jonathan: that is a drinking game for later. [laughter] jonathan: no real drama here yet. this is going to be the big issue for the federal reserve later. show me your forecast. now show me the doppler. lisa: this will be the key question in the bond market. my key question is how are bond in esther's lining up -- investors lining up? they are going against consensus where you have deutsche bank and j.p. morgan higher prognostication of higher yield. against the backdrop of an aging population -- jonathan: consensus around