ecb decision day. we will go to frankfurt and we already told you we will be talking to the former ecb executive board member at 7:30 am u.k. time. not much expectation of change in policy but a lot to talk about when it comes to criticisms of the program in germany three months ahead of the election. other things certainly on my list. we will get into that conversation shortly. if you have any questions of your own for our guests, send them to us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i see the g7 coming up with upfront commitments in terms of financing as well as early reallocation of vaccines they don't need. that can lead to about one billion doses this year. >> i agree emphatically that it is vital to vaccinate the world, and i am delighted to hear that there is support from the imf. >> this is the time to make relatively small investments in health, particularly to prevent the effects of this disease and the impact on societies and economies is huge and i really think that we need to think about that return

maria tadeo tracking the ecb. kiran ganesh kiran ganesh -- kiran ganesh, there is a gush of $1 billion came into the etf the other day. you have an acronym. qgarp, quality growth at a reasonable price. is europe a land with that? kiran: this might be the sweet spot for investing at the moment as we go into the second half of the year. what we have seen in the first half is a lot of focus on growth versus value and people have pitched some of the high-growth names in the u.s. and asia, very high valuations and high level of long-term growth, up against the value stocks for energy and financials and industrials, which tend to be in europe and that has been the battle we have seen in the market over the course of the first half of the year. as we go into the second half, both sides of that trade might are to get a little bit shaky if the market starts to worry about inflation. high-growth stocks don't like it when yields rise. value stocks might not like it if investors are looking for long-term growth, so we think t

., , , both for ollie robinson and at the ecb? , ., ecb? this happened nine years ago, i think he is probably _ ecb? this happened nine years ago, i think he is probably a _ ecb? this happened nine years ago, i think he is probably a different - think he is probably a different person— think he is probably a different person now, he has matured and gone through— person now, he has matured and gone through some different experiences in his— through some different experiences in his life _ through some different experiences in his life i— through some different experiences in his life. i hope he will come out and make — in his life. i hope he will come out and make a — in his life. i hope he will come out and make a full apology and be very sorry—

the ecb didn't raise rates in the last cycle. do you think it will be able to raise rates in this economic cycle, to stop qe in this economic cycle? 2023, we are still way away from target in terms of achieving the mandate. does the mandate change? what has to happen for the ecb to back off qe? konstantin: i think the treasury view is supposed to help them and answering that question, and i am sure one of the results will be to convention allies the unconventional measures and clarify that the effect of lower bound is lifting. if you look at what is happening in fiscal in the u.s., for example, compared to what is happening in europe, that is a different ballpark. christine lagarde mentioned that has well. that it is not that reasonable to extrapolate from what is happening in the u.s. to the euro area because where we are in the cycle and in terms of policy accommodation is very different. so i would expect the ecb from here to facilitate fiscal first and foremost. alix: so what does that actually mean for rates? are we ever goi

., , , both for ollie robinson and at the ecb? , ., ecb? this happened nine years ago, i think he is probably _ ecb? this happened nine years ago, i think he is probably a _ ecb? this happened nine years ago, i think he is probably a different - think he is probably a different person— think he is probably a different person now, he has matured and gone through— person now, he has matured and gone through some different experiences in his— through some different experiences in his life _ through some different experiences in his life i— through some different experiences in his life. i hope he will come out and make — in his life. i hope he will come out and make a — in his life. i hope he will come out and make a full apology and be very sorry— and make a full apology and be very sorry for— and make a full apology and be very sorry for his — and make a full apology and be very sorry for his actions. but the ecb, as i sorry for his actions. but the ecb, as i say, _ sorry for his actions. but the ecb, as i say, they have go

., we get the ecb rate decision. christine lagarde is going to come out, and what everyone is looking for is whether the ecb is looking to planning to taper their monthly purchases of bonds. right now the market seems to be shrugging off suggestions of that. 8:30 a.m., we get a slew of economic data out of the united states. cpi for the month of may, consumer prices expected to rise, the fastest pace going back to 2008. if you take a look at treasury yields, people shrugging it off. we are also going to be getting jobless claims. unless the numbers are as noisy as they have been, i might be watching jobs more than anything because perhaps that has a longer-lasting effect on inflation, if you look at the stickiness of wages when it comes to those equations. 2:00 p.m., treasury secretary janet yellen talking about the budget, as well as her views on the cpi print. she's been talking about the importance of doubling down on the low rate regime for a longer time. she has also been pretty vocal with her support of the glo

inflation data, and the ecb meeting. our expectations may be moderated from the conversations i was having yesterday suggesting there might not be fireworks. another record on the s&p, and the stoxx 600 closed at a record high, up 14% in 2021. with a longer lens, you pick out that direction. what does the gmm say to you this morning? what is the narrative that springs from it? mark: it is quiet, but there are -- we are seeing a little dollar strength in the asian session. you see it in the forex column. the dollar is the one that is gaining against every currency, but tiny gains. the bloomberg dollar index is exactly where we were 24 hours ago. the dollar overcorrected to the downside friday, and again it fell in the u.s. session. it is hard to draw longer-term themes from this. chinese equities are leading losses again, and that is surprising with the weakness there. we are seeing some of those stocks suffering. popular mutual fund retail stocks. maybe that is what is connected to the crypto space. people are realizing

hawkish fed, a dovish ecb. philip lane tells bloomberg that a september taper, that definitely looks premature. curevac craters after its vaccine shows lower efficacy. look out for that one. let's check the markets and see where they are. obviously the fed's front and center. we see it on both sides of the atlantic. the stoxx 600 not down by much. the market seems to be taking this relatively well. where we are seeing the biggest market effect is in the currency market, dollar strength. alix: but off the highs of the session, in part because you have that jump in initial jobless claims last week, the first time we have seen that since april. that kind of shook up where the market were positioned. two main things to look at here. the bloomberg dollar index up, but now only up 0.4%. on the flipside, the u.s. five-year goes nowhere. huge move yesterday. tons of selling. yields popping. now you're seeing a bear flatten are evolving to get the lows of the session. that wind up hurting the kbw bank index. all of the

i wonder how the ecb ultimately exits from policy. we will have to watch, but that is not the problem christine lagarde faces right now. that's talk about another aspect of one of the key stories we are watching at the moment, the crypto story from a different angle. banks facing the potential of significantly tougher requirements to carry crypto on their balance sheets, despite the possible the of tighter restrictions -- their balance sheets. despite the possibility of tighter restrictions, it is a little higher today, possibly on the idea that it could be carried by banks. abigail doolittle has more. abigail: in terms of tougher capital requirement relative to banks, it has everything to do with volatility because the crypto bulls are happy today. why? because in the more near-term over the last two months, we have bitcoin in a bear market. we took a look at bitcoin since april at its last all-time high, we are going to see a pretty decent decline, down 40%. right now stuck in this sideways range. that really suggests uncertainty ab

romaine: as we look toward next week, we have the ecb meeting. no one is expecting any meaningful change in policy, with regard to the messaging we are getting out of the ecb, how do you think it will either be similar or different from what we have been hearing from the u.s. fed? ashish: obviously, europe is in a different spot. it is earlier in recovery so i think there is still the need to be very supportive. i think that the thing that the ecb is very conscious of is the fact that if rates do start to rise, you can quickly start questioning the ability for debt sustainability and some of the member components of the eu. i think they have to thread the needle. i think they will be careful to be supportive and yet set the stage for the longer-term path they want to continue to follow. a lot of the focus is about making sure that they definitely are supportive because the inflation picture, the fiscal picture, and the stage of recovery is far different in the eu relative to the u.s.. romaine: when you look at those differences, and what now we a

i think the ecb have so far had a thing isjust not at all. i think the ecb have so far had a thing is just about as well as they could have. it's a very difficult and awkward situation for them, bearing in mind that at the start of the test match they are all wearing anti discrimination t—shirts. they seem to be following through on that message. i don't think they have gone too far. they are holding an investigation, they are holding an investigation, they are giving themselves a chance not only to work out what exactly went only to work out what exactly went on but to give 0llie robinson a full chance to explain himself and the situation. and i think he should get that opportunity, and then once they got all the information that they need, they will be able to work out if any further action needs to be taken. and it makes sense, i think, to take him out of the england environment were that goes on. michael carberry has said he thinks robinson should never play test cricket again, that he felt this was not a one off. do you think that robi

the ecb, relatively hawkish hold. the steady hand, really quite nicely where the ecb keeps the financing commission -- conditions relatively stable. a more upbeat view of the economy. but all eyes are really on the u.s. rate. u.s. rates will dictate what happens in the other developed markets. anna: thank you very much for your time, justin onuekwusi. thanks very much for joining us. let's get to the bloomberg first word news update with juliette saly. juliette: juneteenth will become a federal holiday in the u.s. it recognizes the emancipation of black americans from slavery. president biden will sign the bill into law on thursday in an event at the white house, with remarks by the president and vice president harris. hong kong national security police arrested five executives at the pro-democracy apple daily newspaper for suspected breaches of national security laws. this as they escalate the case against activist and media tycoon jim eli. he is spending a 20 month sentence in his role for on october 2019 protest. f

the ecb must remain vigilant as the economy gains pace. but she is talking about a brightening outlook. this as we see the other event on your side of the pond sounding much more positive. alix: absolutely. guy: and you can see most of them as well. alix: that's like the bullard/kaplan tag teaming now in terms of the more hawkish voices. some of the recent robert kaplan headlines read as thus. he says he's a strong supporter of the fed's new framework. he favors beginning the taper process sooner rather than later, but that they need to exercise risk management to moderate those tail risks. both of them also starting the conversation in mortgage backed securities. both of them kind of doubling down on that as well. guy: we get powell tomorrow. i think that is kind of where we are going to get the real action. it is going to be interesting. as you say, we are getting the hawks at the moment. we will get the doves later on. where is the center of gravity, and how much has that shifted? powell was speaking for the committee when he spoke a fe

let's reset in the ecb. policymakers have all the evidence they need to keep monetary stimulus in place. despite the faster u.s. rebound from the pandemic and a far higher inflation than the euro zone, fed officials are saying they won't slow the bond down. our next guest says growth and inflation dynamics are improving, but it's just too early to even start to talk about taper. it's likely to be revised up for both growth and inflation. it's too early to start talking about talking about and can about doing anything. so the fed gives christine lagarde all the latitude or the rope that she needs. which is it, latitude or rope? >> we obviously look to policy guidance, but it's a bit different this time. like you said, we don't have the same growth and inflation rates in europe as we do in the u.s.. there clearly saying they will remain very dovish at the high pace of purchases at least for the next quarter. annmarie: you say the ecb will sound dovish, but christine lagarde tomorrow, what kind of tone does she

the role that the ecb will play into this. i assume it will be a big buyer of this new debt that is entering the market. it will be aaa. a lot of questions about whether it could become a long-term committed or to the german bund. anna: there's a conversation about what this does to pricing of other debt. individual sovereign nations and their ability to raise money. maria: yes. as i said, there's a lot of debate in the market as to whether or not this is the new safe european asset that everyone has been longing for for years. that would perhaps compete with the blinged. it would be interesting to see what it does to something like a french bond which had all been trading as a more liquid market when you look at it from a boon perspective. it will be interesting whether or not this removes the appeal from a french bond. on the options, this big auction will be placed using the french auction system. it is centralized and it will be done by the french central baked. -- bank. anna: thank you very much for the update. sylvain br

i think the ecb would respond quite differently. while we have had in gdp the recovery of spending in europe coming up, that is not anywhere near as large as what the u.s. has on tap. so yes, i think there is concern about the near-term supply disruptions, and we are seeing impressive increases in inflation in germany. the sense the risk is anywhere near as large in europe is not there. tom: dr. hooper, underpinning this, and i say this to great respect from stephen from morgan stanley, is the underpinning of your work at the imf and also the work of landau garber, which is always watched the flows, watched the money, many of use will know martin wolf and his wonderful work on this as well. if we get the timebomb in your 18-page report, what does it do to the flows of capital in the world? dr. hooper: the timebomb is another way of describing the fed being late to the party. laden terms of taking it away. rates go up sharply, that is very disruptive to financial markets, emerging markets with huge amount of debt that will be sensiti

for the ecb, it is quite clear. even if they use their -- strongly related to the pandemic, we don't even start thinking about their other purchase programs. the several years before even the most hawkish hawks in the ecb think a rate hike will be warranted. the more music is playing on the fed aside -- side. manus: let's talk about the bank of england. there is a meeting this forthcoming week, and we expect an alarm bell. how soon do you see inflation being a problem for us, or not, in the u.k.? credit suisse says a in q3 2022, and d.o.a. says q2. do you see in inflation problem on a timeline that aggressive on rate hikes in the u.k.? esther: i think the bank of england will also focus less on inflation and point toward several transitory sectors that are having an effect on the inflation rate. i think the central banks will still be able to justify less focus on the inflation at least for around one year. the bank of england has several other problems to take into consideration. the delta variant, the past few mon

i think the ecb put off a fine balancing act. it seems the intuition was with the ecb as to whether or not they should slow their bond purchases, but that was not to be. and opting to step up and keep up with increased purchases, we want to continue in these markets. we want stability in these markets. we want financial conditions to not tighten too much even though we are going into the summer. it is more of the same. that message was telling us so very well. lagarde managed to put off that low volatility act ever so well. she has managed it ever so beautifully. anna: it was interesting to watch that. you talked about low volatility. we have very low volatility in fx markets. is that because it is summer, or because we have a big football championship looming on the agenda and that is distracting everybody? what is driving us down on fx? reporter: definitely the football backdrop. but i think there are several reasons here. on a day like yesterday when you had the u.s. cpi moving at the fastest simply global financial crisis, if

the ecb that will be temporary. other central banks, temporary as well. the question is what if it is not? what if it seeps into the consciousness of ordinary people and they start accounting for that? alix: what i find very interesting though is it is a story similar to the data in the u.s., but the response is not similar. you have the ism similar in the u.s. and you have the s&p giving up gains. how do you understand that? >> [laughs] i would never want to judge markets too acutely. they will do what they do. europe is still behind. you are seeing pressures mounting here in the very early stage of the recover. -- the recovery. a lot of europe is still under lockdown. . the other question is the ecb has a meeting next week and the question is still fairly open on how they will react to that to what extent can they afford to look at inflation. alix: paul gordon joining us there. for more insight on the markets, hannah gooch-peters, global equity analyst. the same question to you. you get similar data points in the u.s. and europe, yet the optimism and mo

that was another reason we went to the ecb first. -- is the i we went to the ecb first. -- is the tweet still — we went to the ecb first. -- is the tweet still wisdenup _ we went to the ecb first. -- is the tweet still wisdenup there -- - we went to the ecb first. -- is the tweet still wisdenup there -- up | tweet still wisdenup there —— up there, because it would give the player a chance to obscured their identity by deleting it. why have you not named the player? we you not named the player? - deliberated over it, as we were deliberated over it, as we were deliberate whether it is in the public interest to publish this sort of story. the main difference between this and the olly robinson thing, apart from the fact that the olly robinson tweets were found and circulated with the name attach, is this player was under 16 at the time. whether that excuses anything is difficult to say but we felt it offered mitigation and we felt it was important to not have the problem of racism in english cricket be attached to one or two players having done problematic tweets along time ago, we wa

angle and ecb supporting the fixed income markets, but on the virus front, europe lagging the u.s. and uk for the start of the year when it comes to vaccinations now you it looks like europe is making a pretty good effort catching up. case numbers are coming down vaccinations are ramping up. do you think european fixed income reflects the up side with europe catching up to the u.s. >> i think so. if you look at the yield development in europe and u.s. in q1, you saw it was overrun by the u.s. it has some spillover. what you see now as you alluded to, europe is catching up on the economic development and pandemic front that is why the yield is driven from europe and not so much by the u.s. >> on the european economic outlook, do you think that european fixed income markets are pricing in the european recovery fund or is there an up side moving up and implementing plans for the snunds. >> i think the recovery fund which has been agreed one year ago and rectified by all member states and kicking off later this month and next month is fully priced in. there could be hiccups in the impl

let's move the conversation to the ecb. some officials issued warnings of higher rate inflation's after agreeing last week to keep monetary stimulus flowing at an accelerated pace through the summer. the austrian, german, and dutch governments raised the prospect of upside risk to inflation in the euro area. price growth was above the ecb's target of 2%. most of its policy makers say the impetus is driven by temporary factors. we are joined by maria tadeo, who brings us a key conversation on this front. maria, good morning. maria: let's go straight with robert holzmann, who is the austrian central bank governor joining us from vienna. one of the reasons i enjoy speaking with you is you are always very direct and you speak your mind freely. i have to ask you about your reaction to that interview today from christine lagarde, who says it is way too early to talk about the end of the pet program. would you agree with that? guest: yes, it is too early to talk about the end of the program, but it was implemented as an action tow

all we have found from the ecb in reaction to that as they are investigating what they call historical offensive material. as you say, the context as we have olly robinson serving a suspension because of tweet he posted in the past, and the ecb's decision to suspend him because of that caused a big reaction. you will be aware there were reactions to that decision which vary enormously in terms of their support and their criticism of the ecb's decision. olly robinson was 18 when he posted these tweets, this cricketer, and i suspect it is only a matter of time before his name out publicly, was between the ages of 12 and 16. i wonder if the reaction is different because of the age difference? some ofthe because of the age difference? some of the reaction _ because of the age difference? some of the reaction towards _ because of the age difference? some of the reaction towards olly - of the reaction towards olly robinson's suspension of people saying it is too harsh, i think this is paraphrasing what the government said, he was a teenager when he did that and he is now a man and everybody

this is more important than christine lagarde and the ecb right now. at three basis point move in the 10 year yield gets your attention. lisa: especially given the fact people waited for a second. they started to parse through the data and started to sell. you are seeing yields creep higher, 1.52%. you see it continuing to climb as people look through the data points. what will be the distinction between temporary and transitory? tom: the real yield comes in from an negative point 85 to .82 . a lesser real yield. a low bit of softness in the equity market. romaine: a pretty significant reaction, at least a knee-jerk reaction to the downside in regards to equity futures. interesting to see if some of the losses get pared. if you start to see things higher-than-expected, you will always get a low bit of reassessment by folks in the equity market. tom: a higher yield is how we would call it with the attendant futures. on radio those are abrupt moves but i would call them contained. michael mckee looking through 32 pages of inflation data. everyone thinks

the ecb raised this forecast for eurozone -- raised its forecast for euros on recovery. inflation is expected to accelerate to the ecb target of just under 2%, and the bank will continue its one point 8 trillion euro bond buying program through next march. ecb chief christine the guard said the support will continue throughout the pandemic and describe the outlook is more optimistic than three months ago , she cautioned that risks remain. >> on the one hand, and even stronger recovery could be predicated on brighter prospects for global demand. and a faster than anticipated reduction in household savings once social and travel restrictions have lifted. on the other hand, the ongoing pandemic, including the spread of virus mutations and its implications for economic and financial conditions, continue to be a source of downside risk. >> wall street largely shrugged off concerns about inflation for the s&p 500 rising to a new record high. shares of delta airlines and boeing were among those trending higher. mostly lower close for the major european indices earlier. some 15

it seems clear the ecb is behind the federal reserve at this point. what does that mean with your investing strategy >> the ecb is lacking in various terms. in inflation trends are below target all of these points are more important going forward in the coming months. so that's the timeline we have what we do think is that growth would be strong in europe and inflation will be picking up not be as strongly as the u.s. from that angle, higher yields in the u.s. and also in europe will be most likely toward the end of the year. the question is only when do you entry into that trait. >> in addition to the inflation outlook of the driver of investment decisions, it is also an election year you are looking into the german elections. how are you positioned for the german elections and what should investors be thinking about here >> there are two angles you can have a look at when it comes to the german election. first of all, we need to make a call on what is the most likely outcome. the polls suggest that combination of the conservatives and green party is

i want to go back to the ecb. you thought maybe we've got the ecb this week, unlikely to do anything now, but you have a vision about the summer. jane: the market consensus used to be they will keep the pandemic emergency fund going at the current rate, what we think there is a small risk they could actually reduce the purchases, the pace of the purchases. this of course will raise the question of are they tapering? they will be pushing against this and saying this could be a technical adjustments. one of the reasons we think this could happen is if you look back historically, there has been a tendency to reduce the purchases of their normal programs during the summer just because of liquidity. manus: jane foley with the risks of a technical taper from the ecb. next, a landmark tax deal at the g7. manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny and it is "daybreak: europe." janet yellen says higher u.s. interest rates would be a plus for the fed and society. stocks waiver, u.s. yi

ecb plus u.s. cpi. what will christine lagarde have to say about the stronger euro, as well as the weaker jobs report and weaker dollar as we continue down this road? on friday we have the g7 summit in cornwall. guy johnson will be there on location. the first time in about a year and a half. lots of great interviews from the g7. stay with me if you're in london and your commuting, you can go to bloomberg radios the cable at the top of the hour live on bloomberg dab digital radio in london. if not, have a wonderful weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no bet

we have an ecb meeting this week. is this one we will remember or one that will fade into the background? >> i think it is going to be one that will fade into the background. a couple of weeks ago, it was going to be one of the bigger events, but unfortunately, it's kind of pretty much every ecb speaker since about may 20 has been pouring cold water on the suggestion on whether the ecb will announce any reduction response in bond purchases. that was the question on everyone's mind. but what they are essentially saying is we want them to take a firm hold. we are not too concerned about inflation expectations, and we are not going to reduce bond buying. that essentially means this is one of those ecb meetings that will quickly fade out of memory. anna: ok, thanks very much, thanks for the heads up, then rom, thank you for bringing -- ven ram, thank you for bringing this. not going anywhere in a hurry this morning, fairly flat, ftse 100 up .2%, despite the weakness, the weight being applied. we do see movement to the ups

tomorrow we get the ecb decision. so how do you play the inflation narrative? yields pushing lower here. ubs's head of global asset allocation will be joining me. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> in terms of anchoring long-term inflation expectations , we will see exactly what the conclusion of the policy review is that is ongoing, but it seems to me that we are certainly not at a level where inflation would be a danger in europe. in the u.s. it is different. alix: that was former easy president jean-claude trichet -- former ecb president jean-claude trichet. the outgoing ecb chief economist said it is hard to find anything whose prices of going up at the moment. at some point, we need to start turning off the top when it comes to monetary policy support. the bond market today seems to agree with trichet, as we see yields moving lower, breakevens moving lower. joining me now is mark anderson, ubs global wealth management head of asset allocation. mark, which camp are you in? do you ignore any sort of ventilation area stick -- sort of inflationary issues, or do we

hawkish fed, a dovish ecb. philip lane tells bloomberg that a september taper, that definitely looks premature. curevac craters after its vaccine shows lower efficacy. look out for that one. let's check the markets and see where they are. obviously the fed's front and center. we see it on both sides of the atlantic. the stoxx

he urged the ecb to think again. robinson had onlyjust made his england debut, in the first test against new zealand, but his international future is now in doubt. there's a difference opinion in the game and former england captain david gower says the punishment is too harsh. joe root, the england captain, at the end of the game, is quoted as saying, "we had to try and do everything to give 0llie an opportunity to learn and understand and do better". do we not think he's already learned something? do we not think that the act of contrition, when he gave the press conference, gave the statement, was the start of the process? do you not think he understands right now that what he did all those years ago was egregiously wrong? former england batsman michael carberry takes the opposite view. he says cricket must �*weed out�* people like robinson. if it was down to me, honestly, 0llie robinson wouldn't be playing test cricket. i don't believe this is a problem where you can rehabilitate someone. that's my personal op

i think it's a very sensible move by the ecb. to give themselves time to think about, well, first of all, to investigate, and to come up with a balanced and fair, appropriate punishment for ollie robinson. because clearly, this is a tricky situation. ideally, the ecb would have done some due diligence on the players that they want to select and represent, notjust the ecb, but the country, and represent society. all—rounder sophia dunkley has been given her first england women's central contract for this season. she made her international debut at the twenty20 world cup three years ago and she's already scored a century this season for surrey and south—east stars. dunkley is one of 17 players to receive a deal ahead of a busy summer, which begins with their first test against india in more than seven years starting a week tomorrow. english golfer danny willett has revealed he's had surgery for appendicitis. he played at the memorial tournament in ohio over the weekend and today he tweeted a picture of himself in a hospital bed

eventually, the bank of england will hike before the ecb, too. alix: very not happy friday. some breaking news for you concerning issues here in the u.s.. a judge has rejected derek chauvin's bid for a new trial according to ap. he was a former minneapolis police officer that was found guilty of killing george floyd a little over a year ago. he faces a maximum of 40 years in prison. he was found guilty back in april. the sentencing will come today. bloomberg will be covering that for you this afternoon when it kicks off around 2:30 p.m. let a judge rejecting his plea for a new trial. this is bloomberg. ♪ line -- ritika: time for the bloomberg business flash. robinhood, which had hoped to go public this month passing listing plans delayed due to back-and-forth with regulars. there are questions from the securities. shares of nike sort after the company projected revenue for the fiscal year will surpass --. nike is gaining momentum sports leagues and events resumed in europe -- in the u.s.. virgin galactic is one step closer to be able to fly customers into space. the compan

guy: the ecb sounds pretty cautious to me. we will watch and see what happens, but that is certain the message from lagarde and lane at the moment. we will leave it there. always appreciate your time, julian emanuel of tig. i think -- of btig. i think the central bank divergence story is one you will want to keep an eye on. the europeans are in a very different place to the fed right now. certainly that was the narrative coming from the ecb. i appreciate it is going to be hard to resist for the ecb, but nevertheless, you look at lane, listen to what he said today, they are on different planets. alix: very much different planets. bullard wasn't set out there in isolation. he may not be a voter, but they had to have known what he was going to say. clearly there has to be some messaging. like, i am not expecting another fed official to come out and try to calm the markets at this point. guy: no, and you've got a whole bunch of fed speak next week. it is how you finesse the message. and i don't powell is doing this by mistake. i t

culture secretary 0liver dowden says the ecb has gone over the top by suspending 0llie robinson from international cricket, while an investigation continues into racist and sexist tweets he posted when he was 18 and i9. they came to light as he made his test debut against new zealand. he's been dropped from the squad and he said he was "embarrassed" and "ashamed". dowden said the tweets were offensive and wrong but they were written by a teenager, who's now a man and has rightly apologised. and former england captain david gower agrees. iam i am still of the opinion that the correct way forward here was not to suspend, but to say ok, right, let's learn from this, let's make you learn from this, let's make you learn from this, make him do the equivalent of community service, go out there amongst county cricketers, cricketers of any ilk, and spread the word. social media is not a thing to be abused and these are things not to say. brighton defender ben white said he was "beyond proud and honoured" after being called into the england squad for the european championship, which starts on

villeroy was saying that is their main job at the ecb. to hold the euro is their main focus and the ecb is willing to go as least -- at least as long as the fed business stimulates. tom: what is the perception of brussels in germany? we have a perception of brussels in the united kingdom and united states, but what is the perception of michelle and all of the eu ec thing out of germany? matt: it may be getting better now that vaccinations are starting to roll in. but the perception of brussels in germany was deeply injured by the slow vaccination rollout. the government in berlin handed off vaccination purchasing and distribution to brussels and that looks like a big mistake for a long time from this perspective. tom: lisa, the 10 year yield, we have to stay on that throughout the day. lisa: the fact that it is coming back in. it is stickiness. the idea that you can go out to eat and come back to the office. there was a story today, fewer than three out of 10 white-collar employees were working out the office on average or content of the

the ecb -- and the bundesbank president are set to speak. wednesday, oecd members meet in paris to finalize a proposal to overhaul global minimum corporate tax. something the oecd has been working on for a very long time. we might hear more about banks' intentions to pay out today after the close. opec-plus ministers will be meeting. nuclear negotiations with iran may be a talking point. that could complicate the group's decision when it comes to thinking about whether it will or won't increase output. friday the u.s. jobs report is due. forecasts are for an in payroll growth. strong data out of the united states. we will see whether we are set for an upside surprise. ubs will permanently allow as many as two thirds of its employees to adopt a hybrid model of working from home and the office according to bloomberg sources. ceo ralph hamers is leading the effort. the policy sets a stark contrast between this swiss bank and many of its u.s. rivals on wall street. let's talk to our finance reporter who joins us from zurich. how does this change

the ecb came out with a forecast last week. they expect 4.6% growth for the euro area this year, 4.7% next year. that would imply that by the first quarter of next year, the euro area gdp would be back to the december 2019 level, just before covid-19 hit all of us. of course, there are risks but the risks are balanced. the outside risk could be stronger based on accumulating savings even faster, downside risk coming from new variants. a few minutes ago, you talked about the united kingdom postponing the lifting of the lockdown by another month. these are risks which exist but the baseline scenario is very strong. all the -- strong in all the forecast that i see. >> how much do you worry about inflation? today, it is this new auction. if you are an investor, should you worry about inflation, especially if you are in the fixed income space? klaus: sure. there's lots of talk about that and it's good to remember that central banks around the world, including in europe, have been working very hard to bring inflation up. i think that

it was run by a charity supported by the ecb, the governing body. it's the kind of progress cricket would like to display. we don't want it to be windowdressing, we don't want it to be just the appearance of being fair, we want it to be genuinely fair, because i think all anyone is asking is to be treated with fairness, to have equality, to have justice for all. unforgettable fan experience. this summer there is a new cricket tournament in england and wales, designed directly to appeal to everybody — but that image and that future must wait while cricket investigates its history. joe wilson, bbc news. for the second week running, gloucester have had to cancel a premiership rugby match after a covid outbreak. their match at worcester this weekend has been called off, with last saturday's fixture with bath also affected. gloucester rugby say "the health and well—being of our players and staff is paramount." and that's all the sport for now. after everything else, you can head to the website. until next time, bye for now. hello there. temperatures

they will likely hold off, the ecb, but the renminbi at that level. we are watching the aussie as well. the country looking to the wto to result that tariff dispute with china. china continues to jawbone markets. the latest line from beijing was to help exporters solve problems in raw material prices. reports it might impose limits on prices on thermal coal. we are seeing pressure in some commodities this morning. it seems at this point that china still largely unwilling to call victory on this when it comes to taming prices in that asset class. let's get more on inflation with our coanchor and bring in our market live strategist from singapore. dave, i have to wonder what has been going on in these markets. is inflation still the big game? >> it is the big talking point. whether it is the number one worry, we are getting more data. i'm sure markets know more about this. it starts to get pushback. back to my first point. it is still the number one topic. we have the assumption. there are a number of stories where inflation is mentioned. this goes back

as it gets closer to the zero hour for the fed, ecb, and we begin having the conversation about lift off, i think markets will react. right now, flat since march or april or may of last year, and begin looking at -- manus: there is no such thing as a free lunch. i know. i have been to lunch with you. i have paid many times. don't worry, you are on the to have a. there you go. let's get to yvonne man with first word news. yvonne: angela merkel says she is ready to allow germany's controversial lockdown law to lapse. restrictions including curfews for hard-hit areas were launched in april. the country has been gradually easing restrictions as infections fall and vaccinations accelerate. the iaea says iran has produced a record volume of highly enriched uranium. this comes as envoys hunker down for an eighth week of negotiations in vienna. saboteurs struck the facility's facility six weeks ago. fans at the next month's olympics. spectators will be required to provide a negative virus test or a vaccination certificate. fans from overseas however will not be allowed to see events in perso

will the ecb wait until after the fed? alan: i think the big ones are holding back for the most part. the ecb said they will not taper through q3. there is an attempt to look at things and see how things are going to change. the bank of japan is not looking at things for the next three or four years. they are very much on hold. the bank of england is a little more hawkish than the other central banks. when you look at global markets, we saw yesterday, it is what the federal reserve does that dictates all asset prices. matt: lisa had a piece yesterday on bloomberg opinion about the financial risk we are seeing. rate risk intertwined with credit risk. i saw a story on private equity. they have been pumping more leveraged loans on the books of their companies than they have in the last 14 years because of these low rates. is it a dangerous situation? alan: certainly for someone like myself who emphasizes the asset cycle is ultimately driving the business cycle. there is plenty of signs of affiliates. the fed has been very res

as the ecb say, they're launching a broader investigation to potentially offensive historical social media posts. i think it's appropriate that the captain addresses that issue today and they certainly want to express this perspective.- today and they certainly want to express this perspective. we've had the to some — express this perspective. we've had the to some of _ express this perspective. we've had the to some of truths _ express this perspective. we've had the to some of truths this _ express this perspective. we've had the to some of truths this past - express this perspective. we've had | the to some of truths this past week orso the to some of truths this past week or so and this going to be some challenges moving forward with the group of players that we have right right now are very much committed to moving the game forward into making it a better place and making it more inclusive and we have to accept it but ultimately we have to move forward in a very positive way and keep going on this journey that we started to better our support and will continue to do that becau

have a more relaxed approach to inflation from the fed then might be true of the ecb. but then again, the proof of the pudding really is that if inflation does pick up quite quickly, i'm sure there will be some people who say, hang on a minute, we weren't so sure it would pick up this quickly. we have to act. the danger there is that when you do act, and if the market wasn't originally expect you to act, you can get all sorts of ripple effects feeding through to other parts of the economy and indeed the financial system. it is a kind of repeated danger over many economic cycles. suddenly, asset markets take a big dive, so the kinds of risks are out there in the next few months and quarters. alix: that goes with an opinion piece that despite central bankers -- despite what central bankers say, we are right to worry about inflation. so what am i supposed to do? stephen: cross your fingers. it is a very unusual situation currently, whereby you have very powerful recoveries in some countries after the pandemic, not in all countries. you have some countries which are able t

one of the big events coming up for the ecb later in the year is their -- preview. i think they will come up with an average inflation target. in europe, it will take much longer than in the u.s. to recover any of these things. therefore, it is quite conceivable and under most plausible scenarios, the ecb will not start lowering rates until the middle of the decade. the same cannot be said about the u.s. there is likely going to be a very different dynamic in terms of central-bank policy that will feed through to the bond market, but potentially also in the fx market. matt: i definitely want to get to those differences so we will keep you with us. peter schaffrik from rbc capital markets stays here. i want to get the bloomberg first word news. we go back to london and laura wright. laura: the world's largest meat producer says it has made significant progress after a cyber attack force the shutdown of all of its u.s. beef let's. jbs says the vast majority of its facilities will be back in operation today. bloomberg understands a notorious russian link hacking group

the ecb is in a different position from the fed, the inflation pressures in europe much less than we have seen on the others of the atlantic. they've got more scope to keep an easing stance, and that's what we've seen in their tone as well. we expect that to continue. and for europe to benefit at this juncture on of the monetary and fiscal side, with some of the packages that are coming, that will look to invest in the second half of this year. so from our perspective, this is positive for european growth, and we may see a capex cycle kick off, something we've not had for a while on the european side. dani: henrietta, thank you so much, hope to have you back soon. up next, morgan stanley leads big u.s. banks in raising payouts for dividends and stock buybacks. how wall street is funneling cash to investors after the stress test success. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london with yousef gamal el-din in dubai. let's go to u.s. banks, with payouts and buybacks after clearing stress tech -- test. goldman sachs increasing its

and i have missed this in the last few hours after which independent committee for discipline or the ecb process will actually decide what his fate is. you are right, it is as big as they might miss a week and will come up with maybe the same solution that identifies just now. maybe the same solution that identifiesjust now. but maybe the same solution that identifies just now. but ijust think in my personal view with the stage that... here is another thing for you. stage that... here is another thing foryou. giroud stage that... here is another thing for you. giroud the captain is saying we had to try and do everything to give 0llie robinson a chance to learn and understand do better. do we not think he's already learned something, do we not think that some act of contrition when he gave the press conference in the statement was the star of that process was made to you not think he understands right now what he did all those years ago was egregiously wrong equipment? i don't think is going learn anything in the next few days it will make him better because i think he already thinks he i

there is breathing space the ecb would be content with, but what do you expect to see? suzanne: we have been expecting dollar weakness, but in this period where the fed is talking about tightening policy earlier than the otherwise debit stance, -- dovish stance, there is suggestions -- they are key technical levels on the dollar at the moment. if it strengthens too much, it will not be good necessarily for emerging market or commodities. i think that is one and that is close to watch. anna: what are you expecting from emerging-market? which ones are in focus for you? suzanne: over the long-term, you have the population dynamics of the emerging markets. places like china and india over the next 10 years will be real great opportunities to invest in. in virtual terms, if you get too much dollar strength, that will impinge upon their economic activity. you have covid going on in places like india, which is going to need economic activity in those markets. the backdrop to the marketplace, the economy, while we are constructive about that backdrop, it is unstable and volatil

matt: i think lagarde and the ecb have done a great job playing this to their advantage. you see europe coming back down to 118. my question is, does the fed strike back with the speakers today? we will see a lot of people talking about the big central banks jockeying for a better position in terms of currency. tom: i want to emphasize the market coverage worldwide absolutely extraordinary right now. toni kroos nz will be joining us. matt miller, you mentioned euro, 119. yen weaker as well. the dollar not breaking out, is it? matt: it is not but we have seen the euro and the pound come down pretty substantially over the past couple of sessions. what you see is could be a dead cat bounce. the euro is not trading at 1.22 as it was prepared meeting last week. tom: weaker in asia and now they surge of half a percent. we do the dow futures for jonathan ferro. nasdaq leading the way but not so much right now. bitcoin, 32,033. lisa: we will get to bitcoin, i promise later on. matt: i thought dow futures were fascinating. lisa: let's move on to what we are expecting today, number