jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. yields up two basis points on the 10 year, 1.35 39%. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> now with the recovery well underway, they transition from that extraordinary monetary policy accommodation to more neutral settings must follow. so today's economy does not call for tight monetary policy to be clear. but i think it does signal that the time has come to dial back the settings. jonathan: esther george of the federal reserve bank of kansas city, the president. good morning. from new york city alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures basically unchanged on the s&p. yields higher on tens. that commentary from esther george inc. is so important. i've talked about the spectrum of -- george i think is so important. i've talked about the spectrum of doves. esther george used to be considerate how -- considered a hawk, but now they are not talking about tighter monetary policy. they really aren't. i don't hear that from prison door -- from presid

good morning alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz. the price action shaping up as follows, s&p basically unchanged. yields in at 131.36. north of 130, that is the change over the last week. last wednesday, a little dip at 112 again. euro negative, a weaker euro. german investor confidence not going in the right direction. absolutely plunging this morning. tom: no question about it. we are going to continue our debate with amesh adalja. dr. adalja, i don't know if you heard the governor of south carolina. what does a pro like you think when you hear politicians, prosecutors, history majors at the university of south carolina play scientist? how do you respond to that? dr. adalja: what we want is the state cap's republic health guidance to reflect the science of covid-19 and the best practices. it has to be a priority that schools be open for in person learning and it can be done safely. we knew how to do this in the pre-vaccine era. many governors are wrestling with this question as variant cases rise because of the unvaccinated popula

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. u.s. equity market up .4%. still sub 120 at 1.9 -- -- still sub 1.20, at 1.1954. tom: i like watching euro there. 1.19 is a big deal there, jon. the other thing i would note here is the vix, 18.69, shows a stasis before the labor report. this is an honor. christopher is someone who puts travel out -- downstate, he holds court at johns hopkins and the bloomberg school of public health come is elite epidemic ella just. we are thrilled -- of public health, is a lead epidemic ella just. the idea of the labor of new york city and the governor of new york state saying public enterprise, get your act together. is there a history in the pandemic that public enterprise can provide public health policy? >> well, you know, what we of course want to see is the federal government leading on this, having consistency across the state, but we have never had that in response to the coronavirus. so i think what you are seeing is that people are reluctant to speak to the need for national mandate, askin

lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ laura: for first word news, in afghanistan, more chaos at kabul airport. the u.s. is rushing to evacuate people but taliban forced a checkpoint around the airport, picking at tougher people to enter, raising concerns of citizens will be prevented from leaving. meanwhile, the white house says evacuation reached almost 3000 people yesterday. in australia, sydney's lockdown will be extended until the end of september. the delta variant outbreak has gotten worse in the country, the biggest city. meanwhile, the city outbreak is linked to three local cases to the three-day lockdown that was ended -- do to end today has been extended until tuesday. the biden administration' is most high-profile trip to asia. vice president harris will look to bolster their military and economic cooperation and china's backyard, sitting singapore and vietnam this weekend. they will look for harris to reassure them of america's role as a major trading partner. she will be able to raise her in

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 32 on the s&p, -0.75%. if in doubt, blame the fed. this morning, that's what many are doing. tom: the fed is always in the crosshairs, but it is much more than that. goldman sachs yesterday, they mentioned to variant. this is not about economics. it is about the fourth story of this pandemic. jonathan: couldn't agree more. the title of goldman's downgrade was not related to fed tapering, not related to an increase of tightening. it was on the impact of covid in q3 and q4. tom: we've got a lot of other people coming up as well on that. and lately -- ben laidler, hugely bullish. what i wonder is at jackson hole, should they rip up the script, and on the lawn with those lovely white tents for the saturday lunch, should the head of the cdc speak to the economists? jonathan: i imagine they are going to be talking about that themselves because this is as much about the pandemic as it is about anything else, and it is as much about china as it is about the federal res

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up two on the s&p, basically unchanged. just going into the jobs report a couple of hours away. tom: equities grinding over the past couple of days to a better fix. that is a new -- a better vix . that is an improved vix, but there is global angst as we go into this payrolls report. jonathan: record highs in europe on the equity market. record highs on the nasdaq. all-time highs on the s&p. we keep climbing that wall of worry. tom: liz ann sonders of charles schwab out on twitter with smart charts, and it's real simple. you take the yield and you flip it. . that gives you the pe. david kostin is out at 22 times earnings, partly because of this low yield and a permanent low yield regime. jonathan: david kostin looking for 4700 on the s&p this year, 4900 and year. the estimate this morning, 858,000. lisa: the worry is pervading the markets. interesting to hear economists say that the worry is positive, that when we get a hot labor market, the fact that there are these dam

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with a 98% success rate and a more affordable weight-loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. no stimulants, no starving, just results, results you'll keep for life. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. go to golo.com and get your life back... -with golo. -golo! ♪ >> i don't buy the two month recession we just had. i don't think

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf

lisa abramowicz, is it pelosi? lisa: we could talk pelosi. we will just note that with crude, two days of the biggest gains since november. in the swamp of economic data, we have durable goods orders, expecting to get the 14th increase out of 15. the idea of ongoing momentum and demand from companies. 12:00 p.m. on bloomberg television. william flynn will be speaking. how much will he talk about nancy pelosi, the infrastructure bill and the resolution that was passed yesterday. to be clear, this is resolution. it does not give us more details and it is not a bill. how close does this get to being passed and how much is flynn in contact with people in congress to get something passed that he things will benefit his infrastructure and his network? i am really interested in this. president biden is going to rule out a number -- roll out number of cybersecurity steps. what are these outlines? how much do you view cybersecurity as the new front and build on that versus some of the other terrorist rats, especially with the backdrop of afghanistan?

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p negative three this morning, down not even 0.1%. it is onwards to vice chair clarida a little later this morning. tom: a lot of people saying it is a quiet tape. i disagree. the vice chairman conference new -- chairman confronts new lower yields, that negative yielding some worldwide up and away. jonathan: and a payrolls report coming friday. adp claims tomorrow, payrolls friday morning. does that set us up for a more interesting jackson hole meeting? tom: does it set us up for the disappointment of -- yes, that will affect jackson hole. jonathan: you've got to go to china. i really think you have to start in china right now as restrictions start to build and the downgrades start to come through. lisa: people take a look at some of the social restrictions, you take a look at the flight trackers. flights and china have fallen dramatically week over week as people start to hunker down, beijing having issues even with their subway. again, how much is china an outlier, and how muc

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes. get incredible results in just five to ten minutes a day. the aero trainer supports over 500 pounds, and inflates and deflates in seconds. check it out at aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. jonathan: live from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. or data in america at 10:00, the isom services read anda speech -- the ism services read and a speech from vice chair richard clarida. yields lower at three or four basis points. the tiny look at 1.12, 1.1260 below of a couple tuesdays ago. euro-dollar 1.1872. the dollar weaker on the back of that with yields lower. your equity market also softer. down 12 po

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17 on the s&p, advancing 0.4%. we've had a look at 4400 over the last month or so on the s&p. the calls keep coming through. 4700 from oppenheimer in the last hour on this program. tom: that is a measured lift out, a measured amount of time. 5000 is a big figure for s&p 500. a dow equivalent to spx 5000 is just under dow 40,000. jonathan: thank you, tom. thanks for that value add. tom: but seriously, no one is framing out beyond q4, may december of next year -- maybe summer of next year. jonathan: we had a guest yesterday, stephen stanley of amherst pierpont, saying 4300. they are radically different calls, and both individuals are looking at exec lay the same economic data. tom: do you that into the markets, into the right market, where money is made and lost. it is a vision thing that "surveillance" is struggling with to the end of the summer, and i would say into autumn. we've got to get through august, but how do you frame june of next year? if you are able c

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market, -.1%. tom keene following the biggest one-day slide in about a month. tom: the biggest one-day slide in at least twice six days. the drawdown is extraordinary. let's look at broad drawdown now. down drawdown 1.2%. to be serious, afghanistan and the rest is beginning to color the washington fiscal linkage and that into the market after the economic data we saw yesterday. jonathan: you are right to bring it up. to what degree the issues abroad will overwhelm the effort. you think we are at that point? tom: i think everyone is numb. read the condoleezza rice. we will feature it with annmarie hordern. everyone is starting to think about this. i will suggest this seriously, with great respect to the soldiers that fought and died, we are in shock. only today i my beginning to see the linkages. jonathan: you said you think the administration is in stock. many people responding to something as simple as the retail sales print, but tom is right to bring that up. when you sp

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market shaping up as follows, down 33 on the s&p, down .8%. it is a classic risk offset up with a bond market bid, a dollar stronger, and commodity complex that is softer. yields lower by three to four basis points to 1.22 33. euro-dollar with a 116 handle, negative a little more than .1%. the commodity market holding onto 63 on wti. down 3.73%. tom: on radio and television this morning, we will do more data checks and keep you abreast. the vix, 17-18 after 23.81. that does get my attention. 30 is sweat and we are not to sweat but well on our way, 23.81 on the vix. this is an important conversation because jennifer news oh reads the research. -- nuzzo reads the research. the new york times has a standout article on the silly plastic barriers that have invaded our lives, including john hopkins university research which say desk screens could actually give us an increased risk versus intelligent use of masks. can you help us with the plastic and golf in this -- the plastic t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market 19, -20 on the s&p, down 0.4%. here's the outlook for walmart, boosting its forecast. tom: this really gets in front of the gloom crew. home depot had some pretty good numbers, maybe with a little but of saltiness in comp sales -- a little bit of sogginess in comp sales. i just don't know how else to describe it, but it defines boom economy. we will see from here. jonathan: stock is up 0.3%. it is on to target tomorrow morning. they've been raising the margins. that's the conversation we had so far this morning. tom: it sets up the polarity between the bull market types we talk to who say, corporations will adjust, corporations will get it done, and the legitimate gloom crew saying, now what? jonathan: let's get to the gloom crew. lisa, they are talking about margins and the pressure we could see. lisa: they beat expectations. they raised forecasts. their stock is basically unchanged, fluctuating between gains and losses in premarket earnings. it goes to the questio

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. kailey leinz and for jon ferro ahead of -- kailey leinz in for jon ferro ahead of her wedding, which we will be very much congratulating her on. tom: off what we had last week with some real difficult stream of news, and of course, the shock of no jackson hole, and on to where it is just a statement on earnings. a guest coming up is quite good on this. it is the purity of the move up in the last two days the gets my attention. lisa: i keep having this voice in my head saying the stock market is not the economy. how long can we get i divergence -- get a divergence? tom: you have to enjoy losing money three times in a row off of that axum, and i really can't -- that maxim, and i really can't say enough. lisa: i wonder how much emphasis there is on consumer spending and the power of that, especially headed into september, with the runoff of some of the stimulus programs, the checks that people have been getting. how much is that a risk for citing -- a risk people are citing? kailey: that

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz for jonathan ferro, off. there is a shifted tone throughout, and increase as we delay the return to work you have an increase in the potential supply chain disruptions with toyota motor coming out and reducing its expectations for production, it seems like people are re-triggering their sense of inflation and growth. tom: they are being tested, but there was a shift in tone. to me, it is much more about august, it has always been tumultuous, and with the afghanistan overlay, at least to your point, it is about an absolute mystery of q4. the guest we have coming up has some optimism about that q4 economic growth. lisa: yesterday, we were talking about a delayed pandemic, not necessarily a deferred or diminished one, this idea we can get that growth resurgence in the fourth quarter. however, you still have that port closure and china. i was looking at reports out of "the wall street journal," saying it is likely to continue to the end of the month. how much are we expecting to see those margin pressures increas

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here is your equity market, record highs on wednesday. we are down on the s&p. the election on the euro-dollar, 118.56. on tens, 170 before. yields going nowhere this morning head of vice chair clarida speaking. tom: equities really holding up speaks to the equity premium we are talking about with these new lower yields. right now, it is so important, the idea that we like to look at leaders and experts in their field and find out how gifted they are. we particularly look at the gifted who long ago adored manchester united. it is a story of dr. bhakti hansoti. jonathan: you want to start their? tom: this is way more important than where we are right now. jonathan: dr., forgive us. docotor, forgive us. dr. bhakti hansoti of johns hopkins. >> i was a -- girl before to beckham was famous. jonathan: there we go. tom: that is news you need to know. lisa: can we move to covid? [laughter] tom: dr. bhakti hansoti, we have a lot of questions. i don't buy first wave, second wave, third wave. if

alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here is price action this thursday morning. your equity market pushing higher by 10 points on the s&p. we are just off session highs. 118 into jobless claims later this morning. outside of that into the effects market, euro-dollar unchanged at 1.1841. crude back to 68.23. call it 68.22 on wti. positive about .1% on the session. news from a dharna, they say it's covid-19 remained 93% effective through six months after the second shot. just an update on the efficacy six months after the second shot from a dharna. the number is 93%. tom: we are learning as we go. what i'm hearing from so many people anecdotally, thank you for tweets and emails, we love getting them, is that you really like we talked to experts on your fears of the variance -- experts. on the fears of the variance, a doctor, one of the leading protein chemists. gigi, i will cut to the chase. we will not make this limiters 101. there is delta variant, lambda variant, and the spike protein. what do our listeners and viewers

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. tom: the word from me on the inflation report is grind, grind, grind. the dollar confirmed, the stronger dollar. jonathan: stte six straight days the treasury down, tom, and where are we right now on a 10-year? that is quite a turnaround. tom: you know there is a low-yield camp, john, but i'm sorry, you have got to respect the grind, and the answer is, day after day, it is price-up. jonathan: and come alisa, we have that hot payrolls report. lisa: that has definitely been a trigger report on a real yield point. are they going to be more sponsor than perhaps people had previously expected, as we get one read after another of hot input. jonathan: annmarie hordern probably has not slept all night, watching the senate. what we call that, a voter rama. lisa: a vote-a-rama- - jonathan: our correspondent in the back immediately emailed me and said "hahaha, yes, i am exhausted." [laughter] tom: didn't she want, like, a five-week recess? jonathan: yields up, and that gets your attention consid

with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: we gear up for the jobs report on friday. this is "bloomberg surveillance." jon ferro is of, taylor riggs very much in. time, that stands out. we had a couple of disruptions this morning. it really highlights the reality that everyone is in as we await to see whether we will go back to school. the economic ramifications of that significant. tom: across the nation, many of you back in school. in the east we start later. it has been remarkable this morning to see different tests struggling -- guests struggling with the new economy. a tweet i saw yesterday, the idea that this was supposed to be over in september is gone. lisa: and i think we saw that overnight with the pmi's out of china. the slow down, a re-jigging of expectations going forward, you wonder if we will see that in the u.s. their shutdowns are more aggressive than here. tom: there is real economic uncertainty about gdp. we will get some clarity on friday with the jobs report. lisa: and uncertainty when it comes to the equity markets. taylor, when, i am looking at

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the thursday morning price action. about 12 minutes away from initial jobless claims data and america. equity futures advancing 0.25% on the s&p, inching back towards all-time highs on the s&p 500. yields going nowhere, 1.1819% on the 10 year. $1.1848 on euro-dollar, positive 0.09%. tom: for all of you on radio and tv, steven ric -- steven ricchi uto of mizuho will join us. before that, ben emons writes incredibly thoughtful pieces on central banks worldwide. i am going to cut to the chase. the great economist jon ferro said a while back, are there any hawks left? ben emmons, are there any hawks left? ben: i think there are. i think james bullard may be is one of them, even though he's now considered a dove yet i think a hawk is about risk management. they are looking at inflation above target. they think it is transitory, but they don't want to take a full chance on it. so there is some level of hawkish and us or hawk -- of hawkishness there. so you cannot be a traditional haw

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down five, negative on the s&p a little more than zero point 1%. yields higher by about a single basis point on the 10 year to 1.27%. crude up almost 1% to $67.21. afghanistan still very much top of mind worldwide. tom: you know this or than anyone, it is about migration. it is europe, let's pick berlin. it is a big difference in miles for a great migration. why don't you bring in the wonderful therese raphael? jonathan: therese raphael joins us from bloomberg opinion. that's a start there come on the response you have witnessed from the united kingdom off the back of some pretty chaotic images over the weekend. therese: today in parliament which has been recalled to debate the afghan crisis, you have mp after mp on both sides of the aisle criticizing the government policies, its failure to anticipate the fall of kabul, to get refugees and those who helped the british military, but also those who are vulnerable out, to define the policy a little more clearly. back to jo

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action going into retail sales 12 minutes away in america. michael mckee will break that down for you in just a moment. we are down about 20 on the s&p, we declined by about 0.4%. yields are lower by four basis points to 1.2250%. euro-dollar negative 0.2%. crude, $66.67. tom: good to take that over the commodity complex as a whole. we don't do that enough. right now on the politics of the moment, this is the perfect guest to do this with, terry haines is the pangea policy founder. we had to go out and find somebody as jaded as we can find within the beltway, and we hit the ball out of the park. i want to go back 306 he five days, times 10, plus another 38 days, where president obama took 650 soldiers out of afghanistan long ago and far away. i believe the all in number at the time was 110,000. we can say that three presidents have said we got to exit. biden, trump, and obama. there's thoughts and there's prayers for this horrific moment, but there's also a common grou

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf in august and january of next year with our market belief. they are really bouncing off each other within the research notes as we begin the month. jonathan: can we take a beat to have a shout out for italy? won the eurovision song contest, won euro 2020, fastest man on the planet, and the two-year yield -0.65%. tom: i just want to extend this moment and suggest what ac milan looks like into 2022. jonathan: let's stop that there. [laughter] lisa: that was a really nice way to try to move on quickly and get it out of the way. the jobs number is going to be really key. how much slack is there in the labor market? we know the demand to hire is there. the question is whether we have seen the kinks worked out or whether we have to wait for september. jonathan: let's get to the price action. equity futures on the s&p 500 shaping

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market is down a single point on the s&p. the focus on washington, a deal coming together. tom: a deal coming together on infrastructure. the markets churning around. the consumer pop we get from fiscal policy has to be accounted for. jonathan: what about the yield pop? 1.60% now the call i goldman. these forecasts are coming in. tom: a movement to 1.60% gets your attention? the ambiguity of have that rebounds and equities, we will do that a moment with mike wilson. i am looking at the terminal, and it is telling me this is a bull market, as we heard from jon golub yesterday. that is just one of the microcosms of innovation, and life goes on. jonathan: new iphones with reportedly a camera upgrade. you've got to tell people what the news is. tom: new iphone toys. you know, they are going to do new stuff for the iphone. we are all going to have to go out and buy them. but life goes on for corporations. but i do pick your point -- i do take your point, their may be some marke

from your city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are down 17 points on the s&p. negative .4%. yields lower about .5%. jumping -- by around half a basis point. data out of china. downside surprise. crude is lower, $66.50. down about two dollars on the session. tom: what we tried to do, john, lisa, and i are committed to bringing you the expert. on china the expert is jonathan spence and his classic the search for modern china. what is the search for modern china for afghanistan? it is thomas barfield holding court in anthropology at boston university and plight -- and president of the american institute for afghanistan studies. his book of cultural and political history, this is the absolute singular one volume on the real afghanistan. professor barfield, thank you for joining us. i must ask of the people of your institute, are they safe in afghanistan? thomas: we don't know. my director got out to delhi last week and we are trying to move our staff there. they have visas, but all air traffic is gone. they are in safe houses in ka

tom: lisa abramowicz, your thoughts on all of this? bring it away from full faith and credit in bonds into what you are observing in ign high-yield. lisa: basically, the fed put that has been ongoing, and bill dudley even said the dominant factor in yields being as low as they are, is trickling over to the credit side. companies refinancing at the fastest pace ever. i think we were framing the debate well earlier today, when you were talking about can the fed raise rates and move away from their stimulus if everybody is buying into it and following them? how disruptive will it be for them to change course if everyone is just saying we don't want to fight you, we are on the same pages you? will that necessarily lead to a correction that the fed is not prepared for right now? tom: do we change the parlor game over the fed when we see a headline that tyson foods will require vaccinations from their u.s. workforce? that filters into our game. jonathan: we talked about august as being passed through to september because september, we are wa

heard on radio, seen on tv, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jonathan: live from

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls eve. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity futures up nine. tom: what is really important as you migrate out strongly into next year with a statement on the end of 2022. jonathan: 4700 this year, 4900 next year. 11% upside into 2022 year end. a market that apparently will have stable interest rates. tom: he's talking about that, he's talking about earnings growth. i am going to bring it over to someone way out front on double-digit optimism, and that is ben laidler. the common thing of laidler, kostin, and the other bulls is yes, interest rates matter, the jobs report matter. the important thing is what corporations are doing. jonathan: the big question is can they continue to keep his big margins insulated. lisa: we were speaking with gina martin adams yesterday. she was saying people have underestimated how much margin pressures have come in with s

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. taylor riggs darkens the door because jonathan ferro is off. we thank her for joining on a day on jackson hole and the speech of the federal reserve system to the known world. lisa, sorry it is not normal given where we are and where rates are. everyone will tune in at 10:00 a.m. lisa: absolutely. one of the balance of risks when it comes to inflation perhaps overshooting as perhaps we heard from fed chair jay powell or them acting too soon and tightening when the economy needs a boost. this is a delicate balance and the market is saying the fed has it right. will he push back and worry more about inflation? tom: on radio and television, whether you are working from home, from the beach, in the office, we will have wonderful coverage. michael mckee with decades of work has put together a terrific set of voices to get us ready for the chairman's speech and then we will have coverage and move into the later morning on thoughts on what the chairman has brought. the petition here for bond

lisa brahm -- jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz here as well. emily, we do not need a clinic on isis but we also need to look at what in kabul is the early afternoon and today hi threat. the high thread is isis, but it is not the isis we know from the labonte, is it? emily: no. what we are seeing in afghanistan, here in d.c., there is still the primary focus right now on getting american citizens in afghanistan -- and afghanistan allies out of the country. you heard from antony blinken saying there are 1500 americans left. they are in contact with about 500 of them. he pointed out there seem to be some americans who do not wish to leave afghanistan at this time, that they want this day. he said they will continue to offer the option to them to leave but it is unclear how that will happen if u.s. is going to not have a functional embassy or armed services currently after august 31. tom: is there any discussion in your world of a two front afghanistan, of the taliban, what to do with the taliban but also with the isis-k or is that even under discu

taylor riggs in for jon ferro come up with lisa abramowicz. they're focused on the chairman's speech at 10:00 a.m., but right now we focus across the north lawn of the white house to a most difficult friday for the president. our annmarie hordern is at the north lawn. i looked it up, charles dickens visiting that north lawn in 1842 said there was no confusion or disorder. measure the confusion and the disorder at the white house this morning. annmarie: as you said, yesterday was a very difficult day. you really heard that in the president's speech. he said he is both outraged and heartbroken. that was the tone, quite emotional at one point, getting red, talking about how these decisions weigh heavy on him, but completely outraged, saying we will find you, we will hunt you down. this morning he will be assembling with his national security team at 8:00 a.m. what is so difficult going forward, we heard from general mackenzie, we heard from the president that these threats of these attacks still exist. they have a few days to evacuate everyone at

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000 for ed yardeni next year. tom: jon, the equity market rationalization right now, the narratives about it, the gloom of the friday research note in these rare notes of optimism, it's got to be studied. jonathan: ben laidler in the previous hour as bullish as ever. he thinks the reopening trade hasn't even started yet. tom: really important point, as each bull has a different way of approaching this. it is not a uniform call. jonathan: we like balance on this program. here's lisa. [laughter] lisa: i do think that the key distinction between the bulls and the bears right now is margin pressures, how much companies can adapt to higher cost. you have the likes of ben laidler coming out and saying it is not going to be transitory, were you -- transitory, whereas you have others saying this is going to be a problem. jonathan: you are right to frame the de

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down seven points on the s&p, negative zero .16%. all-time highs through much of last week on the s&p 500. the yield higher through friday, lower through this morning. down by about a basis point to -- and the euro-dollar not doing much. the story of the morning, where the price action is, is in the commodity market. crude down to 65.50. tom: gold with some dynamics as well. the tradable readjustment is profound off what we saw friday in jobs. it is august in washington. leading the headlines at the washington post is fallout boy will not appear at the national stadium with green day and a bunch of others. and we heard during -- annmarie hordern actually -- absolutely crushed. is a perceived in washington that the senate infrastructure is a waste of time, because all they will do is get to the house and face huge stumbling blocks? annmarie: it is a good point. i do not think people view it as a waste of time, because obviously you need a number of steps in washington, d.c. in order fo

lisa: no dip too small to buy. a risk on morning. i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: we begin with the big issue. looking ahead to jackson hole. >> jackson hole. >> the mood music from jackson hole will be very important. >> everyone is sensitive and reactive to what is upcoming. >> more signals from the fed tapering is on the agenda. >> not making an announcement. >> this is a fed that proceeds very deliberately, very carefully. >> no reason to

almost as smart as lisa abramowicz. discuss. quest there was a story over the weekend that really highlighted this study showing that cutting enhanced unemployment benefits did not lead to any material uptick in employment. it led to people cutting back spending to compensate for lower income. it goes straight to what mike was talking about earlier. we will see these roll off. then what? will we see people get back into the market? it matters a lot. quest everybody is on the same page. to kind of path back to normal. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ quest the british prime minister will push president biden to extend the deadline. the evacuations can continue. the president has already suggested that might be necessary. vice president kamala harris is in singapore where she announced a new supply chain initiative. announcing agreements on cyber and climate. they wanted to deepen their economic ties, but talks did not cover new trade agreement. it has been just over a month and china has brought the number of local cases down

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. jonathan ferro out, taylor riggs in for jonathan ferro this week. we have data coming out. in the old days mckee got all of this stuff at 4:00. he does not anymore. we will let him in 3, 2, one. there is. durable goods. michael: supposed to fall .3%, so i guess that is good news. you are looking at a problem with automobiles, without going deep into the data. we cannot get the chips to get them out. capital goods orders ex aircraft , this is what economists like to follow, it is flat. that is a disappointment because it was up point 7/10 -- it was up .7% last year. better the last months .6%. we did get some work in during the month of july, but we did not get a lot done lately. tom: two questions. one of durable good and then i have to sell forward on all of your hard work on jackson hole. the idea of durable goods -- in a service sector world like a passively use elation, -- capacity utilization, do we care anymore about durable goods? michael: the problem with the durable goods ord

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p 500. yields in about a basis point almost. let's round this down for you. 1.316 9%. trying to generate a bit of excitement. $57.57 on wti, up a further 0.5%. on the morning, not much going on across this market. tom: we are watching any number of stories right now, but certainly the large story in washington, we wanted to get a breath of fresh air always with ag invest -- with ag f'investments g -- with agf investments' gregory valliere. i look at the smith, who we spoke with earlier in minnesota. there are a lot of people who have to step very carefully in these two proposals. gregory: absolutely. this first one will be in a few hours. we all know that. but i am not euphoric that this somehow means we've got this done. the real heavy lifting would be on the second bill. people like smith know it, and at some point they are going to have to give this bill a very big haircut. tom: is it a new deal? i get the politics and the symbolism, bu

i know, lisa abramowicz, the yield of 1.31% on the 10-year yield. we have yields -- lisa, yields are creeping away. lisa: yields are creeping away. and the coral larry effect given the fact that people were wondering, well, yields can rise as long as it's slow and also just note, crude, turning higher on the day. third straight day of gains. tom: 71.37. romaine bostic with the individual stocks, romaine, what do you have? romaine: start off with j&j. a lot of talk about those booster shots. we know the u.s. pushing to start booster shots for moderna and pfizer vaccinated folks starting september 20. now j&j throwing its data on the pile. coming out with a report on early stage clinical trial about booster for its single shot immunization here. it shows very promising results here. there is no formal request yet to include j&j in this booster program. but j&j wants to be a part of the conversation here. j&j shares up fractionally. keep an eye on the chinese stocks that rally we saw ran into a speed bump. we heard from the s.e.c. chair late last night

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." thrilled you are with us this morning. jon ferro off. kailey leinz in for jon ferro. lisa, let's go right there. the real yield, negative one point gloom gets to lesser negative numbers. lisa: raising questions for the federal reserve which is how quickly are they going to allow that to rise at a time when there is so much uncertainty. are we seeing peak delta fears, or is this a prolonged slowdown that is going to affect gdp figures? tom: the thing i see out of the weekend is what we talk about on friday, it occurred friday afternoon. i was waiting for monday morning. never got there. but not a canceled jackson hole, but a different jackson hole. lisa: the idea that it was moved to virtual highlights potential economic pain from the dragging on of this pandemic because think about all of the canceled hotel rooms, all of the canceled flights, all of the canceled dinners. it is all revenue for different areas in the nation. you won

lisa, we have to announce, as we did lightly yesterday, one week from today, lisa abramowicz and i will come from the shores of jackson hole with michael mckee, and the chairman will be virtual. lisa: i am still trying to get my head around the geographer you imagine we are heading to in the mountains of the ocean there. [laughter] tom: there is a big swamp, seriously. when the central bank delete go out and wave to the elk and do all that, it is a huge swamp over a good mile and a half, with all sorts of animals and there. trout -- ken prewitt used to fly fish out there. lisa: you look at and see all the animals. one person who will be disappointing the moose and the elk will be jay powell, because he will stay in washington, d.c. others, including vince reinhardt, who will be coming up, will also forgo a visit because of the delta variant, which highlights where we are in this pandemic. but we will be there and waving at the elk. maybe nobody else. [laughter] tom: a different conference. michael mckee lining up important conversations. but it will be good to talk to vince reinhardt --

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down two, -0.05%. tom: a lot of houses doing a lot of good work. i mentioned jp morgan in the last hour on rent dynamics. that is the way this report is going to be. we are going to look at the different parts of inflation and see what those immediate dynamics are. jonathan: are the temporary factors, or do they start to bleed? tom: exactly. i do take your point, but i look much more at the boom economy, massive fiscal stimulus, and maybe almost tertiary to the discussion is what we saw in washington overnight. jonathan: let's talk about what we saw in washington through the night. lisa: democrats passed an outline for the $3.5 trillion plan. what does this mean? do you have a sense of what it can mean to have a framework for what could be passed? jonathan: it means there's going to be a fight down in washington for quite a while. i think we will have to check in with annmarie hordern every morning on what is going on. we are -0.06% on the s&p. not much going on the

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after yesterday's major drawdown, down 0.7%. every morning we wake up, we had down to d.c. and discuss afghanistan. it is the one thing we do not discuss that you wonder starts to shape this market. we have stopped talking about infrastructure spending, fiscal spending down in washington. tom: there's a high conviction august and the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. i look at the market and the pause today. yes, swiss franc a little bit stronger. but this is the day where we start to link off the shop of -- the shock of afghanistan. the beds are coming in -- the op-ed's are coming in. condoleezza rice and others. it is all linked into confidence. jonathan: and administration may be overwhelmed by events right now. tom: overtaken by events, absolutely. the question is the leadership in governance and the visibility after the president made those first tentative steps the other day. jonathan: lisa, pushing forward today in afghanista

taylor riggs, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. the secretary-general general, the former prime minister of norway with us in the 9:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. and tom keene. bonds bid, price up, yield down, equities bid, price up. we have seen this before. lisa: changing this morning.

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we are watching the data, particularly of claims here in exec lee when our. -- in exactly one hour. john ryding scheduled to be after mr. mckee. right now, mckee begins his work in jackson hole. the number one issue is taper. no, not the economic taper. the taper of my waist after three meals at the pioneer grill. guess what? it is not going to happen because we've gone virtual. mckee is virtual, and the esteemed esther george is virtual. let's listen. esther: we had hoped for an in-person meeting. we knew in the back of our mind that would be a function of how the virus unfolded, and as we saw last week, risk levels went up, and in the interest of our guests, we pivoted to a virtual platform. so disappointed, but still looking forward to a great conference. we've got a great lineup of speakers and papers that i think are going to bring insight to important topics. michael: you lead to an important question, the latest covid spike. how do you think that is going to affect the economy?

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom

francine lacqua, lisa abramowicz, and myself. not only the gdp second look but thursday claims data. we are waiting, and waiting, and waiting. michael mckee, we are waiting. there we are. michael: we have the numbers you want to see. the jobless numbers for last week. 353,000. that is an increase of 4000 from the revised level because we have to look at the revised level. that is just noise. i would not read anything into the movement about difficulties in the labor market. on the basis of how many people in total are getting claims, this is interesting. it is two weeks delayed. this would incorporate all the states that stopped paying extended unemployment benefits, and it still rises by 182,000. a little over 12 million. tom: the delta variant? michael: it is impossible to say. i suppose it could be. you are looking at companies that did not come back rather than companies letting people go because of all of the anecdotal evidence about how hard it is to find people. tom: the thing i see on the bloomberg terminal is gdp second

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. mr. ferro often writing that book. lisa abramowicz here and kaylee -- kailey during duty this morning. it is a morning of upgrades. christopher harvey with a complex note on the macro and model of it all. he goes up single-digit return. lisa: the amazing thing is 4825 is his projection. basically, from bear to one of the biggest bulls on wall street at a time when there cannot be a fast enough upgrade. the question is what is underpinning that? we are looking at low yields, low growth and the upgrades are coming on the heels of that. tom: you correctly state that he goes from gloom to optimism, high single digits, 7-8% return. jackson hole babble is based offer earnings. lisa: it is based offer earnings, on traditional performance. new get returns like the ones we have gotten so far, it is rare to get a drawdown. it is also looking at the idea that the stock market is not the economy. companies have been able to pass on higher prices to consumers, they have been abl