alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here is your equity market, record highs on wednesday. we are down on the s&p. the election on the euro-dollar, 118.56. on tens, 170 before. yields going nowhere this morning head of vice chair clarida speaking. tom: equities really holding up speaks to the equity premium we are talking about with these new lower yields. right now, it is so important, the idea that we like to look at leaders and experts in their field and find out how gifted they are. we particularly look at the gifted who long ago adored manchester united. it is a story of dr. bhakti hansoti. jonathan: you want to start their? tom: this is way more important than where we are right now. jonathan: dr., forgive us. docotor, forgive us. dr. bhakti hansoti of johns hopkins. >> i was a -- girl before to beckham was famous. jonathan: there we go. tom: that is news you need to know. lisa: can we move to covid? [laughter] tom: dr. bhakti hansoti, we have a lot of questions. i don't buy first wave, second wave, third wave. if

good morning alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz. the price action shaping up as follows, s&p basically unchanged. yields in at 131.36. north of 130, that is the change over the last week. last wednesday, a little dip at 112 again. euro negative, a weaker euro. german investor confidence not going in the right direction. absolutely plunging this morning. tom: no question about it. we are going to continue our debate with amesh adalja. dr. adalja, i don't know if you heard the governor of south carolina. what does a pro like you think when you hear politicians, prosecutors, history majors at the university of south carolina play scientist? how do you respond to that? dr. adalja: what we want is the state cap's republic health guidance to reflect the science of covid-19 and the best practices. it has to be a priority that schools be open for in person learning and it can be done safely. we knew how to do this in the pre-vaccine era. many governors are wrestling with this question as variant cases rise because of the unvaccinated popula

tom keene following the biggest one-day slide in about a month. tom: the biggest one-day slide in at least twice six days. the drawdown is extraordinary. let's look at broad drawdown now. down drawdown 1.2%. to be serious, afghanistan and the rest is beginning to color the washington fiscal linkage and that into the market after the economic data we saw yesterday. jonathan: you are right to bring it up. to what degree the issues abroad will overwhelm the effort. you think we are at that point? tom: i think everyone is numb. read the condoleezza rice. we will feature it with annmarie hordern. everyone is starting to think about this. i will suggest this seriously, with great respect to the soldiers that fought and died, we are in shock. only today i my beginning to see the linkages. jonathan: you said you think the administration is in stock. many people responding to something as simple as the retail sales print, but tom is right to bring that up. when you spoke to economist yesterday they believe this was the payback after the stimulus checks ear

tom keene, leitz abramovitz, joining me. tom: we should get a parcheesi board. jonathan: john stoltzfus of oppenheimer. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ and there you have it - wireless on the fastest, most reliable network. wow! big deal! we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. i get that too and mine has 5g included. impressive. impressive is saving four hundred bucks a year. four bucks? that's tough to beat. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. okay, that's because you all have xfinity mobile. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. >> i would argue the labor market is as tight, if not tighter, than any we have seen in decades. >> we are already in an economy that has seen peak growth on a quarter to quarter basis, and it is beginning to slow. >> we are seeing the fed move a little bit faster, little further to pull back on these purchases. >> the market has the view that if the fed starts hiking, they will not be able to get may rate hikes actually done. >> it will take a long time to realize that something fundamental has changed. >> this i

alongside tom keene and jonathan barrett's, on radio, on bloomberg -- alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: united airlines says workers must get vaccinated against coronavirus, the first major u.s. carrier to impose the mandate. united says employees must upload their injection record through a company database no more than -- to discuss final changes to the bill, which is 2700 pages long. it faces an uncertain future in the house. there are growing signs that the coronavirus delta variant risks slowing the pace of the u.s. economic recovery. even slick new york auto show were being -- events like the new york auto show are being canceled due to the delta variant. bloomberg has learned china's didi global may give up control of its most valuable data, part of an asset to resolve a chinese regulatory throw into the aftermaths of its proposal in the u.s.. byron truck is a billionaire banker, according to the bloomberg billionaires index. founder of capital partners is worth about $3 billion. the fund manages about $26 billi

alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here is price action this thursday morning. your equity market pushing higher by 10 points on the s&p. we are just off session highs. 118 into jobless claims later this morning. outside of that into the effects market, euro-dollar unchanged at 1.1841. crude back to 68.23. call it 68.22 on wti. positive about .1% on the session. news from a dharna, they say it's covid-19 remained 93% effective through six months after the second shot. just an update on the efficacy six months after the second shot from a dharna. the number is 93%. tom: we are learning as we go. what i'm hearing from so many people anecdotally, thank you for tweets and emails, we love getting them, is that you really like we talked to experts on your fears of the variance -- experts. on the fears of the variance, a doctor, one of the leading protein chemists. gigi, i will cut to the chase. we will not make this limiters 101. there is delta variant, lambda variant, and the spike protein. what do our listeners and viewers

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p negative three this morning, down not even 0.1%. it is onwards to vice chair clarida a little later this morning. tom: a lot of people saying it is a quiet tape. i disagree. the vice chairman conference new -- chairman confronts new lower yields, that negative yielding some worldwide up and away. jonathan: and a payrolls report coming friday. adp claims tomorrow, payrolls friday morning. does that set us up for a more interesting jackson hole meeting? tom: does it set us up for the disappointment of -- yes, that will affect jackson hole. jonathan: you've got to go to china. i really think you have to start in china right now as restrictions start to build and the downgrades start to come through. lisa: people take a look at some of the social restrictions, you take a look at the flight trackers. flights and china have fallen dramatically week over week as people start to hunker down, beijing having issues even with their subway. again, how much is china an outlier, and how muc

jonathan: i've read some tom keene in the past as well. have you read some tom keene? would you describe that is english? lisa: i would describe it as tom keeneisms. jonathan: equity features down 17 on the s&p. coming up, christopher marangi. tom: what happened to arsenal? ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. one hour away from the opening in new york city. -.4% on the s&p. a sprinkle of economic data. let's get some of it with michael mckee. michael: looking at the empire manufacturing index because it is the first real-time number we have gotten based on august. it is not good

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 32 on the s&p, -0.75%. if in doubt, blame the fed. this morning, that's what many are doing. tom: the fed is always in the crosshairs, but it is much more than that. goldman sachs yesterday, they mentioned to variant. this is not about economics. it is about the fourth story of this pandemic. jonathan: couldn't agree more. the title of goldman's downgrade was not related to fed tapering, not related to an increase of tightening. it was on the impact of covid in q3 and q4. tom: we've got a lot of other people coming up as well on that. and lately -- ben laidler, hugely bullish. what i wonder is at jackson hole, should they rip up the script, and on the lawn with those lovely white tents for the saturday lunch, should the head of the cdc speak to the economists? jonathan: i imagine they are going to be talking about that themselves because this is as much about the pandemic as it is about anything else, and it is as much about china as it is about the federal res

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with a 98% success rate and a more affordable weight-loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. no stimulants, no starving, just results, results you'll keep for life. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. go to golo.com and get your life back... -with golo. -golo! ♪ >> i don't buy the two month recession we just had. i don't think

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. tom: the word from me on the inflation report is grind, grind, grind. the dollar confirmed, the stronger dollar. jonathan: stte six straight days the treasury down, tom, and where are we right now on a 10-year? that is quite a turnaround. tom: you know there is a low-yield camp, john, but i'm sorry, you have got to respect the grind, and the answer is, day after day, it is price-up. jonathan: and come alisa, we have that hot payrolls report. lisa: that has definitely been a trigger report on a real yield point. are they going to be more sponsor than perhaps people had previously expected, as we get one read after another of hot input. jonathan: annmarie hordern probably has not slept all night, watching the senate. what we call that, a voter rama. lisa: a vote-a-rama- - jonathan: our correspondent in the back immediately emailed me and said "hahaha, yes, i am exhausted." [laughter] tom: didn't she want, like, a five-week recess? jonathan: yields up, and that gets your attention consid

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. yields up two basis points on the 10 year, 1.35 39%. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> now with the recovery well underway, they transition from that extraordinary monetary policy accommodation to more neutral settings must follow. so today's economy does not call for tight monetary policy to be clear. but i think it does signal that the time has come to dial back the settings. jonathan: esther george of the federal reserve bank of kansas city, the president. good morning. from new york city alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures basically unchanged on the s&p. yields higher on tens. that commentary from esther george inc. is so important. i've talked about the spectrum of -- george i think is so important. i've talked about the spectrum of doves. esther george used to be considerate how -- considered a hawk, but now they are not talking about tighter monetary policy. they really aren't. i don't hear that from prison door -- from presid

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action going into retail sales 12 minutes away in america. michael mckee will break that down for you in just a moment. we are down about 20 on the s&p, we declined by about 0.4%. yields are lower by four basis points to 1.2250%. euro-dollar negative 0.2%. crude, $66.67. tom: good to take that over the commodity complex as a whole. we don't do that enough. right now on the politics of the moment, this is the perfect guest to do this with, terry haines is the pangea policy founder. we had to go out and find somebody as jaded as we can find within the beltway, and we hit the ball out of the park. i want to go back 306 he five days, times 10, plus another 38 days, where president obama took 650 soldiers out of afghanistan long ago and far away. i believe the all in number at the time was 110,000. we can say that three presidents have said we got to exit. biden, trump, and obama. there's thoughts and there's prayers for this horrific moment, but there's also a common grou

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom: what is harry kane doing? jonathan: missed training again. the italian face found again. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden and top white house officials are trying to stave off a wave of evictions. the federal motor thorium -- federal moratorium just expired, and the president is pushing state and local government agencies to act quickly to stop folks from losing their homes. the chair of the sec is preparing more oversight of krista currencies -- of cryptocurrencies. in an interview with bloomberg, he signaled that he is not on board with the hands overhead approach that many enthusiasts would like to see. he says investors must be protected against fraud. sales of -- exceeded, and we spoke to ceo bill winters in an exclusive interview. we will have plenty >> -- >> we will have plenty of capital to invest organically or in organically. if there is nothing out there for us to invest in, we could resume buybacks or increase the dividend. ritika: they are

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market shaping up as follows, down 33 on the s&p, down .8%. it is a classic risk offset up with a bond market bid, a dollar stronger, and commodity complex that is softer. yields lower by three to four basis points to 1.22 33. euro-dollar with a 116 handle, negative a little more than .1%. the commodity market holding onto 63 on wti. down 3.73%. tom: on radio and television this morning, we will do more data checks and keep you abreast. the vix, 17-18 after 23.81. that does get my attention. 30 is sweat and we are not to sweat but well on our way, 23.81 on the vix. this is an important conversation because jennifer news oh reads the research. -- nuzzo reads the research. the new york times has a standout article on the silly plastic barriers that have invaded our lives, including john hopkins university research which say desk screens could actually give us an increased risk versus intelligent use of masks. can you help us with the plastic and golf in this -- the plastic t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market is down a single point on the s&p. the focus on washington, a deal coming together. tom: a deal coming together on infrastructure. the markets churning around. the consumer pop we get from fiscal policy has to be accounted for. jonathan: what about the yield pop? 1.60% now the call i goldman. these forecasts are coming in. tom: a movement to 1.60% gets your attention? the ambiguity of have that rebounds and equities, we will do that a moment with mike wilson. i am looking at the terminal, and it is telling me this is a bull market, as we heard from jon golub yesterday. that is just one of the microcosms of innovation, and life goes on. jonathan: new iphones with reportedly a camera upgrade. you've got to tell people what the news is. tom: new iphone toys. you know, they are going to do new stuff for the iphone. we are all going to have to go out and buy them. but life goes on for corporations. but i do pick your point -- i do take your point, their may be some marke

lisa: tom keene's version of parenting. you get $1000, you get $1000. i think this is a careful line to to end it does stem the ideological divide and a lot of people are waiting for the fda to come up with full approval for the vaccines and then he will start getting mandates. tom: it will be a twisted august. none of us have any vacation days left. will be here all through august. stay with us. the economic advisers. dr. fuhrman. this is bloomberg on radio, on television. ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with the 98% success rate and the more affordable weight loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. how can golo offer all of that? because it's not like any of those diets you've already tried. it's the new way to lose weight. no stimulants, no starving, just results. results you'll keep for life. no more sacrificing to lose weight only to put it back on. no more sacrificing, period. it improves your lifestyle and delivers incredible resul

this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. we do this through the markets. the yield of 1.1 373. deterioration in the equity market. right now, david westin knows lyriq is spelled with a q on the electronic over vehicle. david westin, the 300 bio range gets you halfway to detroit. david: leave it to you to know how it is spelled. mary barra joins us from her headquarters in detroit. thank you so much for being with us. i know you will say the second-quarter is just one piece of a longer arc for gm. to take that one piece, he did very well in revenues, you set a new record on ebit., yet fell short -- how much of that was because of the one billion dollars in costs on the recall? mary: certainly that will have an impact. we will always do the right thing for our customers. it was the right thing to do. we learn from it. we know it is a unique situation with two manufacturing defects that are quite rare happening in the same cell, that causes the potential for a fire. we will address it and move forward. it is also important to n

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the thursday morning price action. about 12 minutes away from initial jobless claims data and america. equity futures advancing 0.25% on the s&p, inching back towards all-time highs on the s&p 500. yields going nowhere, 1.1819% on the 10 year. $1.1848 on euro-dollar, positive 0.09%. tom: for all of you on radio and tv, steven ric -- steven ricchi uto of mizuho will join us. before that, ben emons writes incredibly thoughtful pieces on central banks worldwide. i am going to cut to the chase. the great economist jon ferro said a while back, are there any hawks left? ben emmons, are there any hawks left? ben: i think there are. i think james bullard may be is one of them, even though he's now considered a dove yet i think a hawk is about risk management. they are looking at inflation above target. they think it is transitory, but they don't want to take a full chance on it. so there is some level of hawkish and us or hawk -- of hawkishness there. so you cannot be a traditional haw

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf in august and january of next year with our market belief. they are really bouncing off each other within the research notes as we begin the month. jonathan: can we take a beat to have a shout out for italy? won the eurovision song contest, won euro 2020, fastest man on the planet, and the two-year yield -0.65%. tom: i just want to extend this moment and suggest what ac milan looks like into 2022. jonathan: let's stop that there. [laughter] lisa: that was a really nice way to try to move on quickly and get it out of the way. the jobs number is going to be really key. how much slack is there in the labor market? we know the demand to hire is there. the question is whether we have seen the kinks worked out or whether we have to wait for september. jonathan: let's get to the price action. equity futures on the s&p 500 shaping

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls eve. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity futures up nine. tom: what is really important as you migrate out strongly into next year with a statement on the end of 2022. jonathan: 4700 this year, 4900 next year. 11% upside into 2022 year end. a market that apparently will have stable interest rates. tom: he's talking about that, he's talking about earnings growth. i am going to bring it over to someone way out front on double-digit optimism, and that is ben laidler. the common thing of laidler, kostin, and the other bulls is yes, interest rates matter, the jobs report matter. the important thing is what corporations are doing. jonathan: the big question is can they continue to keep his big margins insulated. lisa: we were speaking with gina martin adams yesterday. she was saying people have underestimated how much margin pressures have come in with s

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000 for ed yardeni next year. tom: jon, the equity market rationalization right now, the narratives about it, the gloom of the friday research note in these rare notes of optimism, it's got to be studied. jonathan: ben laidler in the previous hour as bullish as ever. he thinks the reopening trade hasn't even started yet. tom: really important point, as each bull has a different way of approaching this. it is not a uniform call. jonathan: we like balance on this program. here's lisa. [laughter] lisa: i do think that the key distinction between the bulls and the bears right now is margin pressures, how much companies can adapt to higher cost. you have the likes of ben laidler coming out and saying it is not going to be transitory, were you -- transitory, whereas you have others saying this is going to be a problem. jonathan: you are right to frame the de

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market 19, -20 on the s&p, down 0.4%. here's the outlook for walmart, boosting its forecast. tom: this really gets in front of the gloom crew. home depot had some pretty good numbers, maybe with a little but of saltiness in comp sales -- a little bit of sogginess in comp sales. i just don't know how else to describe it, but it defines boom economy. we will see from here. jonathan: stock is up 0.3%. it is on to target tomorrow morning. they've been raising the margins. that's the conversation we had so far this morning. tom: it sets up the polarity between the bull market types we talk to who say, corporations will adjust, corporations will get it done, and the legitimate gloom crew saying, now what? jonathan: let's get to the gloom crew. lisa, they are talking about margins and the pressure we could see. lisa: they beat expectations. they raised forecasts. their stock is basically unchanged, fluctuating between gains and losses in premarket earnings. it goes to the questio

from new york city, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. on radio, on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's a

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. we welcome all of you on radio and television. another hour of bloomberg surveillance. thanks for the responses on twitter. by email. by carrier prince george's pidgeon. we appreciate it. ferro love. taylor rigs in to save the day. i look at where we are and i go back to all the

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down five, negative on the s&p a little more than zero point 1%. yields higher by about a single basis point on the 10 year to 1.27%. crude up almost 1% to $67.21. afghanistan still very much top of mind worldwide. tom: you know this or than anyone, it is about migration. it is europe, let's pick berlin. it is a big difference in miles for a great migration. why don't you bring in the wonderful therese raphael? jonathan: therese raphael joins us from bloomberg opinion. that's a start there come on the response you have witnessed from the united kingdom off the back of some pretty chaotic images over the weekend. therese: today in parliament which has been recalled to debate the afghan crisis, you have mp after mp on both sides of the aisle criticizing the government policies, its failure to anticipate the fall of kabul, to get refugees and those who helped the british military, but also those who are vulnerable out, to define the policy a little more clearly. back to jo

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. taylor riggs darkens the door because jonathan ferro is off. we thank her for joining on a day on jackson hole and the speech of the federal reserve system to the known world. lisa, sorry it is not normal given where we are and where rates are. everyone will tune in at 10:00 a.m. lisa: absolutely. one of the balance of risks when it comes to inflation perhaps overshooting as perhaps we heard from fed chair jay powell or them acting too soon and tightening when the economy needs a boost. this is a delicate balance and the market is saying the fed has it right. will he push back and worry more about inflation? tom: on radio and television, whether you are working from home, from the beach, in the office, we will have wonderful coverage. michael mckee with decades of work has put together a terrific set of voices to get us ready for the chairman's speech and then we will have coverage and move into the later morning on thoughts on what the chairman has brought. the petition here for bond

tom keene, we begin with a foreign policy crisis. tom: over the we can come of the team on surveillance working. it is a movable story. some of the images off the news organizations, just extraordinary. this is a day that the biden administration must reckon with. jonathan: this is a quote that will haunt the president of the united states, the likelihood that the taliban will overrun everything is highly unlikely for some the president of the united states july 8, a month ago. tom: what i'm looking at is 300 miles northeast of kabul, a nation decisive france, the size of texas. there is a 47-mile border way up to the northeast, and that is a border with china. jonathan: we will get to that later in the program. lisa, to what degree, if any, has this issue overwhelm the domestic policy goals of this administration? lisa: last night a note was put out saying that this lowers the chance of the president biden getting through his $3.5 trillion human infrastructure bill. a greater degree of disapproval behind president biden, a lot of di

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. ferro on sabbatical. thrilled that you considered his new book coming out. we look for that summer 2022. and for -- in

lisa abramowicz and tom keene kailey leinz, and for -- tom keene with kailey leinz, in for jon ferro. we look at bitcoin on $30,000. my eyes are glazing over -- bitcoin over $50,000. my eyes are glazing over. good time to talk to eddie van der walt. it is actually a very elegant cart. it is very trending in a very lovely way. it says $100,000 per coin, spring 2023. why won't that happen? eddie: i mean, it is a beautiful chart that just shows how parabolic the rise of bitcoin has been, but past performance is no guarantee of future performance. bitcoin is in a really interesting space at the moment. we are seeing a lot, seeing the broader financial markets just getting interested, and this time around it is different because last time, 2017, when we had bitcoin rally, we see of the collapse that did nothing for about two or three years. what brought it back was a change on the supply side. but this time, the demand side seems to be just a little bit more stable. bitcoin demand just hasn't gone away this time around it i think that is a really interesting change. i think the broader fin

tom: bloomberg surveillance. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. jonathan ferro out, taylor riggs in for jonathan ferro this week. we have data coming out. in the old days mckee got all of this stuff at 4:00. he does not anymore. we will let him in 3, 2, one. there is. durable goods. michael: supposed to fall .3%, so i guess that is good news. you are looking at a problem with automobiles, without going deep into the data. we cannot get the chips to get them out. capital goods orders ex aircraft , this is what economists like to follow, it is flat. that is a disappointment because it was up point 7/10 -- it was up .7% last year. better the last months .6%. we did get some work in during the month of july, but we did not get a lot done lately. tom: two questions. one of durable good and then i have to sell forward on all of your hard work on jackson hole. the idea of durable goods -- in a service sector world like a passively use elation, -- capacity utilization, do we care anymore about durable goods? michael: the problem with the durable goods ord

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am john -- jonathan ferro. equity futures are positive up three but not doing month. yields are at a basis points of 1.3522. the euro advancing .1%. we are down to 70 and down .4%. the record high after all times i -- after all-time high in the equity market. tom: that is the theme of the day and we will see how it unfolds. it is an eventful friday off disney earnings, and the summary is better than good. it can be beyond intimidating to line up your phd's when your thesis advisors. for him, it was agony, the theme is essays on the analysis of changes in the conduct of monetary policy, chiseling marble at princeton, and he joins us today, what was it like to go in front of your phd advisors at princeton, who were those guys? >> mark weston, michael weston was my main advisor. it was a great moment. i would not have remembered the typo so thank you for bringing it up. tom: you have bernanke moving one way and michael woodford on the others, it must have been intimidating, is that kind of brainpower going to show

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after yesterday's major drawdown, down 0.7%. every morning we wake up, we had down to d.c. and discuss afghanistan. it is the one thing we do not discuss that you wonder starts to shape this market. we have stopped talking about infrastructure spending, fiscal spending down in washington. tom: there's a high conviction august and the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. i look at the market and the pause today. yes, swiss franc a little bit stronger. but this is the day where we start to link off the shop of -- the shock of afghanistan. the beds are coming in -- the op-ed's are coming in. condoleezza rice and others. it is all linked into confidence. jonathan: and administration may be overwhelmed by events right now. tom: overtaken by events, absolutely. the question is the leadership in governance and the visibility after the president made those first tentative steps the other day. jonathan: lisa, pushing forward today in afghanista

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down seven points on the s&p, negative zero .16%. all-time highs through much of last week on the s&p 500. the yield higher through friday, lower through this morning. down by about a basis point to -- and the euro-dollar not doing much. the story of the morning, where the price action is, is in the commodity market. crude down to 65.50. tom: gold with some dynamics as well. the tradable readjustment is profound off what we saw friday in jobs. it is august in washington. leading the headlines at the washington post is fallout boy will not appear at the national stadium with green day and a bunch of others. and we heard during -- annmarie hordern actually -- absolutely crushed. is a perceived in washington that the senate infrastructure is a waste of time, because all they will do is get to the house and face huge stumbling blocks? annmarie: it is a good point. i do not think people view it as a waste of time, because obviously you need a number of steps in washington, d.c. in order fo

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down two, -0.05%. tom: a lot of houses doing a lot of good work. i mentioned jp morgan in the last hour on rent dynamics. that is the way this report is going to be. we are going to look at the different parts of inflation and see what those immediate dynamics are. jonathan: are the temporary factors, or do they start to bleed? tom: exactly. i do take your point, but i look much more at the boom economy, massive fiscal stimulus, and maybe almost tertiary to the discussion is what we saw in washington overnight. jonathan: let's talk about what we saw in washington through the night. lisa: democrats passed an outline for the $3.5 trillion plan. what does this mean? do you have a sense of what it can mean to have a framework for what could be passed? jonathan: it means there's going to be a fight down in washington for quite a while. i think we will have to check in with annmarie hordern every morning on what is going on. we are -0.06% on the s&p. not much going on the

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we are watching the data, particularly of claims here in exec lee when our. -- in exactly one hour. john ryding scheduled to be after mr. mckee. right now, mckee begins his work in jackson hole. the number one issue is taper. no, not the economic taper. the taper of my waist after three meals at the pioneer grill. guess what? it is not going to happen because we've gone virtual. mckee is virtual, and the esteemed esther george is virtual. let's listen. esther: we had hoped for an in-person meeting. we knew in the back of our mind that would be a function of how the virus unfolded, and as we saw last week, risk levels went up, and in the interest of our guests, we pivoted to a virtual platform. so disappointed, but still looking forward to a great conference. we've got a great lineup of speakers and papers that i think are going to bring insight to important topics. michael: you lead to an important question, the latest covid spike. how do you think that is going to affect the economy?

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tom: i got it right once 10 years ago and vowed never again. you know the office pool. lisa bought 5000 square feet. jonathan: equity futures up a single point. tom: i am sorry. lisa bought 5000 square feet on the upper west side because she got the pool right three months in a row. jonathan: and cute. do you want to continue? -- thank you. do you want to continue? tom: our job is to put into perspective how important this jobs report is. jonathan: we had 50 k at the low end. -- 350 k at the low end. tom: i was in a cab in new york city yesterday and the cabdriver was adamant that the reason you don't see more cabs on the street in new york as they are home on unemployment. jonathan: plenty of demand. lisa: just to do a brief fact check, i did not buy 5000 square feet on the upper west side. going forward, the question is why there hasn't been a faster flow into the labor market. people blame the advanced unemployment -- the enhanced unemployment. but those who dropped out early have

kailey leinz, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene to get your friday started. andy pekosz now, with johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health -- i should note that it is mr. bloomberg's philanthropy at johns hopkins. i noticed the cdc -- is the normal operation of measles, mumps, and rubella, 15 months old, then a booster shot at 5-year-old, and it is a no big deal. why is a booster shot of covid a big deal? andy: right now, we are dealing with massive surges of cases. with the measles virus, case numbers are normally quite low, so vaccination rates that give you moderate immunity initially are enough to keep the virus down. you then boost the immunity later to get a protectant -- protection for most of your lifetime. sars-cov-2 is starting to change a little bit. not as much as influenza, but it is showing the ability to change. and we have not gotten anywhere close to the level of immunity in the population to keep case numbers down. so we are still working out how to keep a long-term covid-19 policy, but i think everybody leaves we will be dealing with

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p 500. yields in about a basis point almost. let's round this down for you. 1.316 9%. trying to generate a bit of excitement. $57.57 on wti, up a further 0.5%. on the morning, not much going on across this market. tom: we are watching any number of stories right now, but certainly the large story in washington, we wanted to get a breath of fresh air always with ag invest -- with ag f'investments g -- with agf investments' gregory valliere. i look at the smith, who we spoke with earlier in minnesota. there are a lot of people who have to step very carefully in these two proposals. gregory: absolutely. this first one will be in a few hours. we all know that. but i am not euphoric that this somehow means we've got this done. the real heavy lifting would be on the second bill. people like smith know it, and at some point they are going to have to give this bill a very big haircut. tom: is it a new deal? i get the politics and the symbolism, bu

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz for jonathan ferro, off. there is a shifted tone throughout, and increase as we delay the return to work you have an increase in the potential supply chain disruptions with toyota motor coming out and reducing its expectations for production, it seems like people are re-triggering their sense of inflation and growth. tom: they are being tested, but there was a shift in tone. to me, it is much more about august, it has always been tumultuous, and with the afghanistan overlay, at least to your point, it is about an absolute mystery of q4. the guest we have coming up has some optimism about that q4 economic growth. lisa: yesterday, we were talking about a delayed pandemic, not necessarily a deferred or diminished one, this idea we can get that growth resurgence in the fourth quarter. however, you still have that port closure and china. i was looking at reports out of "the wall street journal," saying it is likely to continue to the end of the month. how much are we expecting to see those margin pressures increas

tom keene and lisa abramowicz. kailey leinz and for jon ferro ahead of -- kailey leinz in for jon ferro ahead of her wedding, which we will be very much congratulating her on. tom: off what we had last week with some real difficult stream of news, and of course, the shock of no jackson hole, and on to where it is just a statement on earnings. a guest coming up is quite good on this. it is the purity of the move up in the last two days the gets my attention. lisa: i keep having this voice in my head saying the stock market is not the economy. how long can we get i divergence -- get a divergence? tom: you have to enjoy losing money three times in a row off of that axum, and i really can't -- that maxim, and i really can't say enough. lisa: i wonder how much emphasis there is on consumer spending and the power of that, especially headed into september, with the runoff of some of the stimulus programs, the checks that people have been getting. how much is that a risk for citing -- a risk people are citing? kailey: that

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene, on radio, on television. it is a friday of federal reserve and economics. we will have full coverage through the morning. jon ferro off. taylor riggs in this morning. lisa, it is a big day. lisa: it's a big day, and i think arguably the biggest aspect of it is the reaction to what jay powell says. he's expected to signal some sort of timeframe for the taper discussion. tom: do you think he is actually going to come out with a month, a date, and our? lisa: -- a date, an hour? lisa: of course not. going forward, there is a question about the response and bond markets. i think jim caron nailed it earlier, when he said that if they announce a faster taper eventually, that will actually meet to lower long-term yields. this is what a lot of other people are saying. tom: it gets out to the terminal yield. to the mathiness of that, there's the four ideas that make up the yield, and to me, the immovable force is the microeconomics, the liquidity wall, which means price up, yield down. taylor: except that in the credit

taylor riggs, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. the secretary-general general, the former prime minister of norway with us in the 9:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. and tom keene. bonds bid, price up, yield down, equities bid, price up. we have seen this before. lisa: changing this morning.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg on a friday. it has been an interesting week. it has been an interesting three to four fridays. kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro, who deserves a well-deserved sabbatical. he is doing research, lisa. does that spring to the internationalist of the moment, whether afghanistan or the markets, it is an international friday. lisa: or whether it has to do with the pandemic and how international it is, not only in reply to health but supply chain. it has to do with supply chains out of china, partially closed due to one diagnosis of covid among the workers. and then you also have, of course, an increasing number of wall street firms coming out and delaying the return to the office. it seemed like we baked in a couple of months of the pandemic. tom: i agree. we are getting a little bit of good news, maybe china supply can ease up or the margin can ease up. lisa, i take your point on the margin of this pandemic. goldman sachs did in their gdp marked dow

x c lisa abramowicz and tom keene, we welcome you all across the nation and worldwide. we have to pause here. those of us clearly remember 1975. those close memories, i was truly taken by how -- i was to see that memo on twitter from the military yesterday afternoon. lisa: the idea that this was the end of the 20-year foray into afghanistan by the u.s. certainly not the end for service members, dealing with the ramifications. there is the question now of what is to come. does the u.s. to negotiate with the taliban, negotiate with close neighbors like pakistan? how do we move forward in order to prevent some sort of consolidation of all the terrorist groups in the region to form something that is a little bit bigger and comparable to what we saw 20 years ago? tom: to frame what we have learned on "bloomberg surveillance," and we thank our team, terrific experts, we started with thomas barfield from boston university, his definitive volume on the tribal structure in afghanistan. it included much of western pakistan. we went on to this stunning interview a few days ago wit

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." thrilled you are with us this morning. jon ferro off. kailey leinz in for jon ferro. lisa, let's go right there. the real yield, negative one point gloom gets to lesser negative numbers. lisa: raising questions for the federal reserve which is how quickly are they going to allow that to rise at a time when there is so much uncertainty. are we seeing peak delta fears, or is this a prolonged slowdown that is going to affect gdp figures? tom: the thing i see out of the weekend is what we talk about on friday, it occurred friday afternoon. i was waiting for monday morning. never got there. but not a canceled jackson hole, but a different jackson hole. lisa: the idea that it was moved to virtual highlights potential economic pain from the dragging on of this pandemic because think about all of the canceled hotel rooms, all of the canceled flights, all of the canceled dinners. it is all revenue for different areas in the nation. you won

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. moving us through the markets, we will get to romaine bostick any moment on the different nuances of individual securities. futures up nine. the vix, a real improvement from 18, down nicely through 17 to a 16 handle in the enthusiasm yesterday afternoon, 17.18 right now. yields, 1.26%. dollar churning as well. we make note of oil with a little bit of uproar in mexico on an explosion there over the weekend. $70 a barrel on brent crude, up 1.73%. romaine: a lot of optimism reflected in equities, as well as the commodities space. a lot of that tied into the action you are seeing in china. the hang seng tech index up about 7% on the day on the back of all of those large cap tech companies rallying pretty hard. that is feeding into the adrs here in the united states. alibaba is the biggest mover in the premarket. on the u.s. side, up about 5%. all of them pretty much higher across the board. the biggest mover today is a small biotech company, carra therapeutics, right now up almost 22%. ap

tom: now tom keene enters the dambisa moyo timeout chair. you massive credit with global corporate politics and boards. give us your belief on where esg is heading? is it really entrenched? or is it the fat of the moment? -- or is it the fad of the moment? dambisa: is entrenched. that does not mean there is a lot of work to do. i have seen it evolve as something that was an afterthought into we will build foundations where companies will provide support to employees and pass over for organizations to do something in a separate way to it being fully integrated into how we do business. we are in the business of allocating capital. it goes to the companies that will outperform in terms of competing against peers but also against the market. we have to allocate capital. our ability to allocate capital within emi is absolutely going to be a differentiating factor for companies. tom: dambisa moyo, a guest of jackson hole. she will be part of these discussions as we drive forward the conversation. i want to tell folks to stay with us on radio and t