jonathan: what time, lisa? lisa: 4:30 p.m. jonathan: 6:00 p.m. eastern time, dallas fed president holding a virtual town hall. this will probably be the most-watched virtual town hall from the fed president. kailey: it may be colored a bit by the stock trading and the amount of money he has made. i wanted to point to what you heard from jim bullard. forget about the weak jobs report, he is still saying the fed should push ahead and taper in the near term. jonathan: dallas fed active buyer and seller of stocks last year. lisa: it was vetted by compliance. if anyone wants to point fingers at the fed -- point fingers, point at the fed policy. all of these people calling to audit the fed. there is skepticism around fed officials who have more power than ever. jonathan: not a situation you need. let's bring an wells fargo international economist. i want to start with morgan stanley. the argument we have made, it has been strengthened. do you agree? >> no, probably not. it is too early to sound the all clear. when you look in to the fourth quarter of t

lisa: yes. lemonis: a self shipper is a freestanding piece of cardboard that you see in a grocery store or at a convenience store that actually encompasses the product inside of it. and when it arrives from the manufacturer, it comes like a box. a self shipper allows the retailer to say yes today, to actually get the product, and put it right on their floor and start selling. the three of us lined up the trade show superzoo. heather: [ chuckles ] gio: no big deal. less than two weeks, though. so you got plenty of time. lisa: no pressure. heather: whoa, oh, whoa. lemonis: so the brand needs to be right, and the product assortment needs to be right. heather: superzoo is a huge convention. there's pet retailers there, there's new products -- everything that you can even imagine. i've been on the buying side of it at superzoo, but i've never been on the selling side of it. so i'm excited. lemonis: let me see the new ideas. heather: these are the new clips. lemonis: this is a new product, and it'll b

lisa: thank you, tom. tom: we will get through it. lisa: we are allowed to pause. jonathan: this is great therapy. lisa: therapy for us. tom: the fed meeting, forget about that. i'm way more worried about revenues and earnings than that. jonathan: are you, tom? on what side of things are you more worried about revenue than earnings? tom: do you know what, that is a beleaguered question. my brilliant answer right now is i guess i'm more worried about revenue because that is not what the pros are worried about. they are worried about earnings. jonathan: bouncing back after five days of losses. up 6/10 of 1% on the s&p. tom: two shots. two shots. jonathan: this is bloomberg. >> policy for the most part looks like it is going to be somewhat benign. there's no fears of taper from the ecb or the fed. >> they won't do it in september, i don't think. i think they will announce in december that tapering will start from january. >> we are in a place of strategic ambiguity. >>>> we know for a fact every time something goes wrong, we come back with even more policy stimulus. >

lisa: high-fashion. jonathan: your five year yield, the belly of the curve, we have added some weight to the belly. low 60's in early august, down about three basis points this morning, but we've seen a big move. i want to bring in darrell cronk. darrell, is that where this rate hike dance is playing out, in the belly of the curve? i think you nailed it. -- darrell: today, 92 basis points on the five, that's a big move. you are pricing in global central banks, not just the fed on a tighter path. the ecb is curbing their purchases. the boe wants to raise rates and we could see some el -- dm banks raising rates again. what should not be lost on investors is the bond yield curve has not billed in much for inflation expectations. so as inflation remains stickier and we go further out, it will have to do that over time. typically, that is on the long side, but we are seeing it earlier at the belly. lisa: is it overdone? maybe a little bit. in the midterm -- darrel: maybe in the midterm. if i am buying on the

let's bring lisa this time. lisa will experience the two very different experiences that you and i have. lisa: did not hear about someone slipping on ice, and there was a bar -- [laughter] lisa: moving forward -- jonathan: we have gone nowhere since janet yellen spoke. tom: the data is just deadly. what do you do? jonathan: not much going on until we get to wednesday. lisa: we have gotten data that is somewhat predictive, but some would say you have to look past that to the next trend. it is a market of fate, not actuality. jonathan: a market of faith, your s&p down seven. every equity market is a market of faith. lisa: i just do not understand what this bond market is reflected. what is the saying right now wish to mark tom: the first chart of the week, this is over for standards deviations, that is all you got to know. we are in uncharted territory. jonathan: what was that voice? lisa: what, who me? jonathan: next on the show is da niel yergen. looking forward to that. we are down seven on the s&p. the beautif

lisa: who are you? [laughter] maria: you know, they should because we could see a big repricing in the bund, and that could affect pretty much everything in the bond space. and also the fiscal debate. is europe going to become much more of a fiscal continent the way the united states is? are we going to see a turn away from the traditional policies of the european union? that could happen in this election, particularly the bund. will it trade different with a government that is clearly pro-spending and wants to engage in that too? jonathan: maria, thank you very much. mari -- maria tadeo. tom: very sensitive, very good. she juts around. jonathan: where was she last time, venice? tom: she was in venice, whatever. lisa is like, ok. , central park north,. lisa: do you want me to start crying on air? jonathan: let's turn down -- left turn down fifth. there we go. lisa: what was the band we were talking about last week? [laughter] tom: it reminds me of the german election. jonathan: what do you make of that?

lisa: it is all a ruse. all i can say is mike tyson was there and he was getting a lot of people coming over and taking selfies and he was very gracious. jonathan: and he did not want to do that? lisa: i did not want to get punched in the face. look at those markets. thank you so much. i appreciate it. jonathan: you only one. yields are high by four basis points. i know exactly what tom keene would say, travel companion -- i'm not going to go there. do not worry. lisa: i just have a comment about the conversation about who does not have a shopping list, who does not have a barbell strategy. this is the new consensus that everyone who wants to get cash once to play it on the dip. jonathan: do you ever get the dip? that has kinda of been the story of the last 10 or 12 months. easier said than done. the people that have stuck with it, they did really well. the equity market almost a 10th of 1%. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: johnson said this new tax --[indiscernible] israel was one

lisa: dr. hansoti, before we get to boosters, what part you get vaccinated before we see a big reduction in transmission? israel recorded its highest ever caseload, even though it has a pretty high vaccination rate. dr. hansoti: sure. the issue is there has been lag time. there vaccine rate went up as the number of cases were going up. it takes time for you to build an antibody response. you get a second shot, and you have a good response. i think the last issue with the israel data, there is no magic number. upwards of 80% is what we anticipate. lisa: how close are we to accelerating and ramping up to that? i saw europe celebrated the 70% rate overnight, basically saying, "we are getting there," and yet case counts are still concerning. dr. hansoti: again, it is due to the lag time, whether the measure is one-shot versus two shots and two weeks after, which is when you get the immunity. we are getting there. vaccines are effective. they have gone up in the united states. there is a bigger driv

tom: a bar conversation with lisa? jonathan: that would be awesome. lisa: and bears. jonathan: beers bonds and bears. there is a podcast for you and that step from new york this morning, good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: democratic governor gavin newsom has turned back and ouster to get him out of office. democratic leaders have characterized the recall attempt as a power grab by supporters of former president trump. energy crunch in the u.k. got worse. they have shut down a major cable that brings power from france. electric supplies are already short in the u.k. and prices are at record highs. a driverless delivery service will be launched. it will be tried out in miami and austin. in macau, the top gaming company is worth $10 million in value. china wants to increase local shadowing of casino companies. chinese authorities have told lenders that struggling developers will not make interest payments next week. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this year is going to the point where we will have recovered to pre-covid-19 levels before the end of the year. we had an

lisa: again? [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with the 98% success rate and the more affordable weight loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. how can golo offer all of that? because it's not like any of those diets you've already tried. it's the new way to lose weight. no stimulants, no starving, just results. results you'll keep for life. no more sacrificing to lose weight only to put it back on. no more sacrificing, period. it improves your lifestyle and delivers incredible results. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. this is the only program i have ever done that i have never deprived myself of anything. (announcer) if what you're currently doing to lose weight isn't working, or you feel like diets don't work, you're right. don't give up. get golo. go to golo.com and get your life back, with golo

lisa: because people want it. i think at this point, people think perhaps we need to stall, we need to restart and see the data coming in stronger. what people are saying is that right now, markets are not reflecting the weakness in some of the economic data, and whether some people are saying that is because everyone is looking past it and some people are saying it is not reality, those are the two bifurcated views right now competing against each other. jonathan: the view from hsbc that we are not praising in right now, super divided still. we are do a correction, that seems to be -- we are due a correction, that seems to be the consensus view. let's get to the price action. we are negative almost 0.1% after yesterday's decent move higher on the s&p, with a nice cyclical bias. in the bond market, yields higher to 1.3073%. there is some dollar strength out there. euro-dollar, $1.1767. lisa: this doesn't really seem to fly in the face of a bit of bullishness. today, august retail sales. we are focused on how much

as you mentioned lisa to our present moment. lisa: as we encourage debt globally on a corporate and public level. the specificity of what the programs are that the borrowed money goes towards is the achilles' heel of the discussion because you have to get granular and those granularity's have a lot of disagreement going on in washington. tom: the confidence of growth and the way to extricate ourselves from the debt is technology and productivity increasing. those are amorphous things that have nothing to do with the political heat in washington. lisa: there other consequences of those developments. we have not talked about the bureau of labor statistics coming out with a report over the weekend that painted a bleak picture of the employment market over the next decade in the united states growing by less than in previous decades with more lower paid workers. nothing will change that. people are retiring earlier. what you're getting is people getting moved out of the labor market because of the technology. tom: we will see. futur

tom: i had to go nerd with lisa. lisa: i bring it out in people. tom: the prime minister spend some quality time with you after your visit. lisa: can i go back? you are like please go. tom: those are vacation days. futures up 24. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (woman) i don't want to look like this anymore. (man) what is happening to my body? (woman) why can't i lose weight? (announcer) you may be suffering from insulin resistance. measure your waist. females measuring more than 35 inches and males measuring more than 40 inches may have insulin resistance. to learn how to reverse insulin resistance and lose weight effectively, go online to golo.com. once a

lisa? lisa: it is a ball and it is a sphere. i played soccer in hospital -- in high school but i still call it soccer. jonathan: tk, where are you? kailey: he is hung over. jonathan: tom, where are you? futures down for tenths of 1% on the s&p, a little bit softer. -- 4/10 of 1% on the s&p, a little bit softer. ritika: with the first word news, china's central bank says cryptocurrency related transactions are illegal, the strongest move against the industry. all cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are not fiat currency and cannot be separated on the market. all crypto related transactions, including services provided to domestic residences, are financial activities. india's long-delayed plans to overhaul its military is getting new life. the government is integrating its army, air force, and navy, the biggest reorganization since it independence. the move comes as india and allies strengthen defense cooperation against china. the final television debate of the german election, the spd leaders narrowing. it was the last big opport

lisa: does the u.s. treasury market have to rely more on domestic buyers is global central banks move toward hawkish rhetoric? >> i think a little bit. the foreigners now only on about 30% of the treasury market. they had own 45% six years ago. it has been domestic investors that have been absorbing most of the additional treasury supply over the past half decade. in august, we saw a massive jump in demand for 10 year treasuries from arner's and that bid went away this past month and it was domestic investment funds that bridge that gap and those were the biggest buyers ever in the 10 year reopening last week. lisa: ira jersey, thank you so much as always. we don't have enough time and kaylee was talking with someone about why he is so different from stephen major who sees the 1% treasury yield as a more likely possibility and he's been right for years. this is one of the biggest conundrums on wall street. do you go with what has worked in the past or do you say this time is different as we move toward a

lisa: 54. katie: 96. jonathan: it is a part of the world that one can't neglect, and not only because of the opportunity to provide, but you lose excitement if you are not there. lisa: this is the question, can you be invested right now? can you be invested in an area where you have such uncertain regulatory power. although there is this debate, increasing among officials in china over just how much they should crackdown versus reassuring businesses they are not going to undermine their models. jonathan: the common prosperity, can we talk about that? in connecting what president xi is doing it, and what it means. >>>> if global investors are confused, looks like there is some confusion in china as well about this massive new policy agenda. we are getting some sense of that confusion in china. on the one hand, we've had an influence in bloggers and state media pushing this idea of a revolution in terms of the changes upcoming. on the other hand, we have pushed back to a very influential tabloid making the

lisa, 71.41. lisa: the markets and how there is not much action, not an incredible amount of data. 8:30 a.m., import christ -- import prices come out. supply chain disruptions on both fronts, how much are import prices increasing as a result and what is this saying about china, the transmission mechanism to the united states? what is the path along rates to the end consumers, fly manufacturers? we've been talking all morning about elevated crude prices, the highest since early august. it has been a steady climb, and the interesting thing is, it is a direct correlation with a steady decline in inventories in the united states and elsewhere. today at 10:30, eia crude inventories. today, ursula von der leyen will address the parliament and the approach to combating the pandemic. later -- tom: they just want to know if she can get the euro started again with the power outage. lisa: thank you, you will be asking and probably nobody else. valdis dombrovskis will join us. jonathan: tom is going to leave

lisa: sometimes. [laughter] jonathan: tom keene has come after you on twitter, have you noticed that? [laughter] tom: let's get away from the gloom and say you can't all be in cash. anthony ross -- anthony roth joins us now. let me picked up on what john said. you have an international cast and we have a rally that continues in some way, what does that mean for asia and pacific rim? anthony: it is good for asia and pacific rim. they are providers in commodities. that provides sources of revenue and profit for them. i think that is good for pacific rim and asia overall. you have a weird situation in china which is 50% to 60% of the market cap in that part of the world and they are marching to the beat of their own drummer now. whatever happens in china affects the overall scenario from a commodities standpoint. higher commodity prices are going to benefit. tom: your claim for the management of quite money, you're talking about owning the financials. i want to buy the banks, but which banks do i buy? an

lisa has been focused on that. lisa: she thinks we've seen peak margins in companies. this is one of the key aspect of her call in terms of the s&p forecast. they are not going to be able to pass all along to consumers. this goes back to the wage question. they are not keeping up with inflation. jonathan: it's good to see lisa fired up. i enjoyed that. tom almost like a fistfight she had with you. jonathan: there was no time for me to speak. tom: you are a ratings magnet. jonathan: equity futures up 18 on the s&p. yields are higher by a couple of basis points. just for you, tom. nick city on it radio and tv. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ >> president biden urged china to cooperate. they spoke for 90 minutes last night. it was their first discussion since fabry. the president initiated the call after becoming frustrated by cabinet meetings with beijing. the u.k. as foiled 31 terrorist plots in the last four years. that's according to the domestic agency. the terrorist threats to the u.k. is a real and enduring thing. the taliban takeover in afghanistan has embolde

lisa, step up q3, q4. lisa: we have heard that from a number of people. they have downgraded their expectations for q4. the retail sales number yesterday showed the willingness of american consumers to spend money, even if they cannot go out and spend on services. that supports the step up people are predicting. jon: bet against the u.s. consumer at your peril. tom: is it triple, quadruple witching? i have no idea. jon: what do you want to call it? tom: i have no idea. jon: quadruple. [laughter] -.25% on the s&p. from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: i am ritika gupta. a survey suggests the fed is moving toward scaling back. economists surveyed say a formal announcement will come in november. they predict the fed will hold interest rates near zero through 2022. china is trying to -- the quarter funding needs. china has injected cash into the financial system. the work at an enrichment facility is a sign. reports sandy enrichment plant has been expanded in recent weeks. it is the worst stretch a performance for the british retail sector in weeks. d

lisa: the stakes are higher. how much does a nearly $9 trillion balance sheet tie their hands going forward in terms of how much ammunition they can deploy? >> there is no limit on the size of the federal reserve balance sheet. they can make it much bigger than it is now. there is no actual limit on how big it can get. tom: you have been very vocal with the public responsibilities you have had over the years. i value the bloomberg opinion essays. what is the great research mystery now? if you are lined up with people like vincent reinhart of the time of greenspan, the young phd's at the fed? what is the research idea for you that there is immediate and further study? >> how tight is the u.s. labor market? the number of job openings is at a record level. is the labor market loose? tom: you went right to my third round. i'm going to go there. do we have a clue what the overlay of technology is on our labor share and labor dynamics? >> the labor market is obviously changing in a pretty rapid way. the covid pandemic

lisa: anyway, carry on. tom: right now, ben laidler with us and jay pelosky as we switch over to fixed income, ira jersey , running fixed income strategy for bloomberg intelligence. we are coming up on $1.5 trillion. worry that, worry long-term, were a short term. which part of the yield curve right now matters to ira jersey? ira: i am looking at the five year and the seven year sector because that will really get a clue as to how far the federal reserve will ultimately hike rates once they do. watched that for clues as to if the market is really worried that the fed is getting behind the curve and it is going to hike much faster and further than they have been expecting before. so five-year, seven year i think will be the key here. lisa: do you buy that a lot of the move in the treasury market has been driven by europe, by inflation expeditions there, and by the bank of england more hawkish than people expected? ira: not only the bank of england being more hawkish, and certainly gilts have been leaving the

lisa: that's fair. you and i represent a little bit of history appear. you are the first black cardinal. cardinal gregory: in the united states. lisa: black american cardinal. talk a little bit about the experience of being in that role and any challenges you may have encountered being in that role. cardinal gregory: lisa, having heard your introduction, you know a great deal about my background. i am a convert to catholicism. i was born and raised in chicago . please don't hold that against me. [laughter] having and raised in an urban environment, like many african-american catholics, the schools were a primary vehicle for entering the catholic church. and so it is with me. when i knelt in front of pope francis to receive the beretta, the ring, and the assigned titular church, a lot of that heritage was running through my head at that time. what is this going to mean for me? what is this going to mean for the african-american catholic church? and what is it going to mean for the american church in gene

lisa, can we stop the show and talk about maximum commitment? lisa: please, go ahead. tom: we have to do that. you look at yields and i will -- jon: i want to know where this is going. lisa: i don't think there's optionality here. [laughter] tom: when you are at halftime, you are ahead of liverpool, you have a good and beautiful thing and reba got it done in the 40 something minutes. jon: head to the gym tom. tom: i think pharaoh had to be medicated late. jon: i turned it off after 20 minutes, that is the truth. getting ripped apart, really tough. for anyone that remembers 2005, there was an infilling -- infinitely superior football team to liverpool into a dozen five and liverpool came back with this big comeback from 3-0 down. congratulations, liverpool. well done. [laughter] tom: this is the one day all year pharaoh can call it that. jon: why do that now? futures down six on the s&p. unbelievable. down a little more than 1.5 -- .1%. i need more than a tank right now. the division around the outlook for me is fascinating. i know it's for you guys as well. this was fr

lisa will go and hold my hand. jonathan: what is it like to have seen so many centuries that you forget a century? lisa: i like it. jonathan: from new york, good morning to you all. equities unchanged. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. >> the great exit from these emergency policy settings has begun. tiziana -- >> the fed is moving toward exit. >> the 10 year treasury is right about where it should be based on where we are headed. >> already positioned behind the curve. >> i would say inflation is running up at a pretty furious clip. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: the bond market making some noise. from york cit

lisa: that says everything. this is no longer an auto meeting, but rather a mobility plan and that says everything you need to know. jonathan: equity futures unchanged this morning. good morning. i am jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on radio, on tv. (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it.

tom: lisa, call me on back channels, please. lisa: i will send it through the tubes. tom talks about the back channels and makes some noise. i don't want to know what that was. but i do want to ask you, annmarie, about the likelihood the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill could get torpedoed in this push and pull of the $3.5 trillion plan that joe manchin wants to see down to $1.5 trillion. annmarie: what is so interesting about bipartisan infrastructure is the timing. this is what i am waiting to see. speaker pelosi had promised to bring up to the house moderates that by september 27, she promised a vote on bipartisan infrastructure. the idea is that would mean reconciliation was ready by september 27. nobody is thinking that is happening. the leadership of the democratic party has promised a two prong approach. if they cannot get reconciliation, to they make sure they get bipartisan infrastructure? every politician wants to go home and tout to their constituents. lisa: the message from the administration has been, i don't know what to call it, inconsistent,

lisa: i don't know. jonathan: when does yours expire? tom: february. lisa: mine is april. jonathan: that makes no sense at all. lisa: maybe it is because you are british. tom: if you leave america -- why? i do not -- jonathan: i do not know. tom: i just don't get it. jonathan: the scientists are shrugging their shoulders a little bit. tom: i am baffled by the whole thing. we are 97 present vaccinated. everybody is wearing masks and florida is 54% vaccinated. jonathan: you can go to the u.k. and fly back. you have a different color passport which means covid will not touch you when you come back to new york. it cannot get you. we are going to keep this going. futures down on the s&p. lisa: the markets. jonathan: you really want to go there, don't you? tom: it is a big deal. jonathan: euro-dollar, 118. 15 minutes away from an ecb decision. tom thinks this morning is boring. he has been away the last couple of days. tom: you are ramping up the ecb. a snooze fest. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. and there you have it— -woah. wireless on the most reliable network

tom: lisa, what is years? lisa: eating at a restaurant, but also the fact that labor is costing a lot more, and the lack of labor available to the restaurants. they are all understaffed, and the prices have gone way up. tom: tk complained about the service has well. lisa: i'm not complaining about the service. but every waiter who comes up and says on the only person here, waiting on all these tables, it happens all the time. tom: anecdotally, we are leaving tables and sitting more at ours just because you can get better service. jonathan: i'm not sure that is right. i'm not sure that is a post-pandemic change. tom: let's do the data check. futures, negative four. dow futures, -36. the vix still above 19. jonathan: nasdaq futures negative a little more than 0.1%. yields higher by a basis point or two. in your hasn't done much since fed chair jay powell spoke at that virtual conference in jackson hole, wyoming. going into inflation, 26 minutes away. tom: we are looking at the dollar flat. i thought that was ver

lisa: like what? >> tesla, amc, meme stock, trading evaluations where you have to assume utterly extraordinary things to get a decent return. one quarter of the market right now is trading at more than 10 times sale, utterly crazy. stocks at 10 times have underperformed the market profoundly and today one quarter of the market is trading at that huge multiple. >> some people would argue that going to the russell 2000 as a value proposition would wind up with a lot of gamestop that accounts for a bigger portion of these indexes. how do you get around that? >> buying the indices is a tough thing. whenever you do that you purchase the stocks that have high market caps. in the case of apple and amazon, those are not legitimately huge companies. amc is a wonderful example where the market cap exploded. i think you want to be careful doing anything that assumes the market cap is correct. the russell has had a heckuva run since the lows of last year. it is not cheap, either. i'm not making the argument that

lisa: [laughter] ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. ♪ >> they have the pedal to the metal, and inflation is down the list of words. >> the fed has started to change their signal

and, a spare -- lisa argen, a spare the air day. lisa: that is right, julian. we had the sunset at 7:30. now we check on the sierra nevada, some greens in the mountains. that is good news. another hot day today, three degrees to five degrees warmer compared to yesterday, so we are already retaining some of that heat, with temperatures in the 60's, 70's, even 80 around brentwood this morning. looking at your 9:00 temperatures, upper 70's inland. stop this at noontime. 93 livermore at noon, mid 70's oakland, and by 2:00 we are over 100 degrees by the delta, 5:00 and 100 in concord. wewewewewewe back and cools us off, coming up. julian: all right, thank you, lisa. crews are trying to piece together a cluster of fires. abc 7 news reporter amy hollyfield is live with more this morning. amy? amy: good morning. they have a fire truck parked here. we are watching this scene. this is on pittsburgh avenue. [indiscernible] firefighters responded to about 10 fires. they were small. firefighters got them out quickly, but they find it very suspicious. to check back in with a

lisa: with the u.s. selling fewer bonds going forward, how much does that offset the influence of the taper? >> probably only a third. the fed is buying treasuries every month. not $80 billion in supply. probably more like $80 million to $100 million a year. it's true that the federal coffers are going to be pretty full with cash, assuming we get over the debt ceiling first. it's true that coupon issuance will be cut in november and deficits are not going to be running at $3 trillion a year like they were over the last 18 months or so. but that not only offsets a small portion of what the fed has been buying, thinking about it it's been $1 trillion in debt on an annualized basis every month for the last year and a half. whether or not that goes away it is still going to change the demand dynamics more than supply dynamics. jonathan: what's more important? supply >> outlook for the economy is going to be by far what's been driving yields and will drive yields going forward. there will be incremental shift

lisa abramowicz will explain fx with clarity. [laughter] lisa: when is that going to be? this is one mystery, despite the fact that people are talking the reflation trade. it is not a reflation trade like it was six months ago. is this a real rate differential story, or some kind of look for safety at a time of a lot of uncertainty? jonathan: if it was a rate to story, you would expect sterling to be anchored, given the hawkish tilt we got from the bank of england last week. for governor bailey a little bit later. i wonder if he's got his eye on this one, i break down and cable to 1.3474. tom: we don't have time now, but between the lorry drivers -- lisa: how much are they getting paid now? jonathan: a lot. tom is reconsidering, let's put it that way. [laughter] tom: jack fitzpatrick in washington is saying, i got up for this? what is the single thing you will try to observe in the white marble of capitol hill today? jack: today we will see if they can avoid a shut down, even though there's not a deal on the debt limit because that is a later date. this thursday night at

lisa: and what is the effect on yields? because there is a sense that higher oil prices lead to higher inflation, but at the same time, it will crimp people's spending ability. this is not necessarily good for growth. i am trying to understand the ramifications for the economy. tom: green on the screen. as you mentioned earlier, the nasdaq off higher yields takes it further south, negative 0.7%. jonathan: off the back of that, we look at the equity market. on the nasdaq 100, down 0.7%. it is in big tech you are starting to see this play out a little bit or. we are softer thereby a big margin compared to where s&p is right now. tom: morgan stanley was a markdown on amazon. what does that meant to the end of 2022? it still advances 16%-ish, so that is a mark on their overweight on amazon. right now we overweight on what is really going on, and that is in the bond market. we start this our strong. gene tannuzzo joins us, global head of fixed income at columbia threadneedle. do you make portfolio adjustments now that we have se

lisa, i think most would agree that you do. lisa: the property sector has been cooled dramatically. jonathan: session lows, we are down 71. -1.6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. >> the little before the storm before the fed needs to act and do something. >> this is the perfect time because things are so quiet. >> we have very accommodative financial conditions now. they will probably still be confident in tapering. >> typically the fed hiking cycle does kill the value trade as well. >> they have reversed policy. this seems to be a trickier time for them. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with to

lisa: how are you preparing for that? jonathan: there are a range --frances: there are a range of ways. watch the fed speak and supply chains and watching china. those are the three main factors on whether we can continue the goldilocks narrative or would you have to prepare for something more uncomfortable and more stagnation. tom: do you have an entrenched terminal vector to potential gdp ? do you have an arrow sliding down over quarters and quarters and years and years to the vicinity of 2.0%? frances: 1.9% is where we have growth coming in 2026. a long wait to get there and a lot can change. through covid we expected and were hoping for fiscal that would extend over an extended period of time. a lot of productivity growth. all of those things were supposed to lift the long-term gdp, but it has not happened to the same extent. 1.9% is my peak. jonathan: chairman powell talking later with secretary yellen. i won't ask you to weigh in on the politics but i do want your understanding on what you expect next year of the fe

lisa: the consensus, this is sometimes polarized. we had a survey in the financial times. 70% of all economists believe the fed will have to be reevaluating early next year and speeding up rate hikes. this goes against what the market is pricing in. jonathan: if they have to change the message? wow. we are looking forward to that. then, we will be observing a moment of silence at three minutes past the hour on the stock exchange four. we will do that at 20 minutes past the hour. we will observe both of those on bloomberg tv and radio. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden urged the chinese president to cooperate on key issues while they fight on other topics. they spoke for 19 minutes. the president initiated the call after becoming frustrated by cabinet level meetings. the u.k. has sorted 31 terrorist attacks in the last four years. the terrorist threat to the u.k. is a real and enduring thing. the taliban takeover will embolden terrorists. the rally in metals is heating up. nickel rose to a seven-year high. deman

lisa, your thoughts? lisa: the idea policy uncertainty is one of the biggest risks. this is the reason why. the new nature of washington is that much harder to game out. tom: you know there will be a 15th book from bob woodward. we leave you with futures of 18. jon ferro, an important interview on television with lisa shalett. we continue on radio as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: wrapping up a quarter of gains with a month of losses. equity futures, the picture looks like this. we advance one third of 1%. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. turning the page on a choppy q3. >> we entered a high volatility regime. >> the fed has said they are changing policy. >> volatility. >> nervousness and volatility. >> people are just closing their eyes and waiting for this to be worked out. >> all of that is temporary, it is not permanent. >> we are setting up which should be a better q4. >>

lisa: the cpi data has been very hard to predict. increasingly, it means lower long-term yields for a number of reasons. we get that in about 90 minutes. the expectation is for an increase month over month of about 0.4%, slightly lower than last month increase. nonetheless, the highest cpi we have seen in years. i'm watching this versus wage increases. this is potentially disinflationary if wages don't keep pace. we have seen wages go up, but not enough to overcompensate for some of those higher prices for the consumer items such as anything you buy in the grocery store, and of course rent. one a clock p.m., apple unveiling the apple 13, just for tom keene. there will also be a lot of chatter about the epic ruling and how much apple has to pay with respect to revenues as a result of some of the assets they have in their store. at 11:00 a.m., we get employment data. how much is the chinese economy slowing? this is really a big? . -- this is a really big question mark for people. how much does this test xi jinping? jonathan: as always,

lisa: i would say the best estimate. however, i think this goes to your question come how much are we looking at the actual headline number, at the revisions in the three-month average, which still show a pretty decent question -- picture. jonathan: i will go with the least worst. what did you see the others did and do you think it will can -- persist? jim: i would say it is the least worst as well, and our goal is to be the least worst. in terms of leading up to it, i would say the daily homebase numbers in particular have been on the weak side, and certainly that was consistent with a pretty sharp slowing the leisure and hospitality category. it does look like that sector slowed pretty sharply. there was a lot of question about employment in the state and local government and certainly starting the new school year and that will be the issue for september again, but the weight of evidence is there has been significant slowing. even to 35 of course by pre-covid sanders -- standards would be pretty strong. jonathan: the e

lisa: talk about the market. jonathan: payroll is coming up friday and demand was in the ism yesterday. tom: some of the data is there and up we go. the job data tomorrow is critical but you wonder how the errors recalibrate into the jobs report and out of it. jonathan: equity futures are up eight and we advance on the s&p 500 and the yields come in by about one basis point step lisa: it's interesting to note about the opec meeting that took about an hour yesterday to have their output increase which affected crude which is a little bit lower but now it's a little higher. 830 a.m., we get a read of the delta variant has had a material effect on the labor market and the expectation is no. jobless claims are expected to come in lower than the week before. the momentum continues and there is a robust recovery underway, perhaps softer than otherwise would be based on the increase of the pandemic. they have been talking about how difficult the flooding has been. president biden will deliver remarks in his administrati

lisa: today we are going to hear from jerome powell. we also heard from janet yellen about the inflationary input. how much do you expect the supply chain disruptions to be? saira: we don't think we are at the peak of inflation at this point. it will be mostly transitory, but there's going to be some permanence going forward, especially in larger pieces of inflation like wage inflation. going portion -- going forward, the question is how hot is that for the fed? we are on the side that the fed does not make an error here. our view is that the interest rate may not increase, but going forward. tom: what is use of cash going to do, given this maelstrom? saira: it is interesting because you have seen really high levels of buybacks this year. this tells you companies are not confident enough right now to spend on capex. buybacks tend to be more flex people. however, we think we likely keep going forward. we are seeing this going forward, and then maybe they peak around the end of this year. as companies become more confident, as delta moves

lisa: has the federal reserve severed the market? you are talking about the differential from weakening economic data. expectations are coming up. how do we understand this? >> you made the comment a little while ago on this disconnect between the number of people saying they want to find a job and the number of jobs available. it doesn't appear it's a lack of demand for labor. there is a mismatch. there are a number of retirees, people moving. it really looks like it's not only a supply chain disruption where companies can't get their parts. this is a broad based disruption from the pandemic. it is difficult for policymakers or strategists to figure out why the date it doesn't seem to make as much sense as it should. john -- tom: you nailed the call this year. it was simply getting it right. part of that was don't -- have patients. i don't want you to do would individual stock. update us on the gig attacks and their support in 2022 and 2023. >> it's interesting. if you separate out the story between fundamentals and the backdrop, th

jonathan: someone cares, lisa. lisa cares, tom. good to have her back. next on the program, on tighter monetary policy, an exclusive conversation with norway's central bank governor. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. japanese prime minister yoshihide suga is warning about china's growing military influence ahead of the first in person meeting of the so-called quad group. he said the changing power balance could threaten japanese prosperity. he will doing leaders from the u.s., a straley, and india tomorrow at the white house. beijing says the quad group is engaged in cold war mentality. philippines president rodrigo duterte has signed a law taxing casinos. tax collections will be used for universal health care and to develop medical facilities. the law is also said to be part of the government efforts to regulate all forms of gambling. a wider reopening is seem to be delayed by a low vaccination rate. the department of disease control officials said the reduction in quarantine from 14 days will help