morgan stanley up by 1.65%. bank of america numbers tidy, likewise with jp morgan, again with morgan stanley. let's talk to stephen biggar now, director of financial research at argus. what is the number one take away for you? stephen: certainly it has been a powerful third-quarter for market activity. equity underwriting, ipo activity in particular. over 100 companies went public in the third quarter. if you include specs, over 500 -- includes -- include spac's, over 500 companies. another important one would be loan growth. we saw that over the summer, according to fed data. that is starting to pick up again. for the regional banks, you've got an improving story there as well. tom: james gorman has the respect of everyone on wall street. without question, he was the manager of the decade with the move to wealth management. everybody likes to talk about this other stuff. what i see is $6.2 trillion with the bold hans of e*trade -- the bolt ons of e*trade and eaton vance. will they start to rival like rock -- ri

and morgan stanley all beating. will fred frost has the highlights. >> five have reported so far and two clear winners, which the year over year revenue growth numbers captures somewhat crudely. morgan stanley and bank of america, the clear ones with the biggest year over year gains in revenue. morgan stanley's security business smashed it and like everyone, they had a beat the advisory that drove a banking beat, $2.8 billion compared to a forecast of $2.2 billion, while that tilted in trading towards equities helped $2.8 billion there, up 24% year over year, offset a decline in fixed income trading. that was still not bad at $1.6 billion. their wealth and investment management numbers slightly missed expectations. they were still strong, but they did slightly miss. their firm-wide year to date revenue is 10% higher than their full year 2019 revenue was with one quarter to go which captures the growth they've had bank of america had strong capital markets as well puts the standout was their net interest income start

let's get more with crush analyst for morgan stanley. we welcome james gorman, morgan stanley chairman and ceo and also sonali basak. james, thank you for joining us. i will headed over to sonali for a couple of questions. sonali: thank you for joining us. you said this morning you beat expectations and almost all major business lines. you are gaining market share. where can we expect you to expand the most the next six to 12 months? james: there is still a heck of a way to go. thank you for having us on. we just started the whole workplace strategy and we have several million pounds we brought through e*trade that is kicking off -- e-trade that is kicking off. we are continuing to see share gains and extremely good performance across the investment banking sales and trading platform. i don't expect the investment banking pipeline to slow down. it remains very robust and as the fed starts tapering you are going to see more volatility in the fixed income space. there is a lot of stuff going on right now. sonali: you had said during the ea

morgan stanley, j.p. morgan, bank of america all saying the pipeline for dealmaking is remaining very healthy across all sectors and all regions. citibank saying it is appointing more staff and we could see a commensurate pop in compensation. shery: really setting the tone for this earnings season. we continue to hear more concerns about inflation that it may not be as transitory as people expected. morgan stanley's ceo coming out and saying the fed should hike rates. take a listen. >> honestly, and the next several months -- in the next several months, i think the market digested the fed will have to move not just on tapering, but rate increases. with 10 rate increases away from what could considered -- what would be considered normal, bringing it up over the next year is not a crisis and not unexpected. shery: he is pointing to supply chain bottlenecks, not to mention surging commodities prices, saying that would really lead to price pressures perhaps not being transitory. let's delve into the parade of

lisa: we compare open sex to morgan stanley, who is winning? christian: when you think about strategic evolution, it is clear morgan stanley is ahead. it is basically an asset manager , growth weights comparable to any in the industry, almost 10%, so they really -- they are there. they have figured out strategy. i think goldman is more of a process. if you would ask me in terms of a strategic transformation timeline, morgan stanley is clearly ahead. tom: is there an urge to merge? i mentioned scale earlier. is there a frenzy in the interest rate environment or the debt acquiring environment to do transactions, to do combinations to generate scale? christian: i think so. figure out strategy and take advantage of very accommodating markets. fast-forward asset manager and it has done wonders. multiple extension on buying companies for growth. i certainly believe that cover m&a in this environment where innovation is happening quickly. m&a makes a lot of sense. tom: christian bolu, thank you for the brief. american wall street, dow futures over 35,

short-term morgan stanley. long-term i can see a company like square continuing we talked about sofi a couple days back. i can see them starting to siphon away market share and see consternation around crypto and these other alternatives i think you need to have a little bit of both short-term what is stable and a proven commodity look at the consumer trends. they are involved in these companies. >> grasso, your take >> tnc has the best chart in the financials, a regional, up 35% year-to-date, but blows away all of the other charts. if i look at the charts though, bank of america seems pretty good up 42% always gets left out everybody talks about morgan stanley, goldman sanchs, but loo at bank of america, look at a firm they are going to eat away at the traditional credit card company's profits. so they can pivot or turn. >> you know how santa claus keeps a list, naughty and nice >> coal has rallied, i will take it >>> coming up, a real life star trek william shatner blasting off into space today trouble taking

they were forced to sell off to morgan stanley, a huge win for morgan stanley. they have turned that into this powerhouse. you see them wanting to get bigger in this business. romaine: but we have not seen the type of acquisitions then we have seen out of morgan stanley, for example, and even jp morgan to a certain extent. >> late last year they got saddled with two consent orders from regulators, and one thing that was actually said, if you want to do any acquisitions, you have to run it by us. i think a lot of her strategy and thinking is around organic roast, looking inward and finding the gems hidden in the rough. taylor: and it's not lost on us that is the only female running the major bank, she is the most flexible when it comes to returns to assets and understanding the importance of flexibility. how much of that can be a satisfying tool for some of the employees? >> that some of the reasons we are excited about this profile. we kept hearing over and over again, it's jane and her commentary about her ideas, the way we work on wall street and the way we wo

baevg of america, morgan stanley, simplifying it a bit. their revenues up double digit, whats the others only operate a lower single digit or slightly lower for wells fargo. >> okay. will, thank you. appreciate it. beck >> tanks, an view, in the meantime, president biden announcing a deal for the port of los angeles to operate 24/7 for a backup that submerged the key supply chain california's los angeles and long beach handled 40% on containers long beach moved to around the clock operation two weeks ago. joining us to talk about getting it moving smoothly again is the port of long beach director. thank you so much for being here today. this is a problem we have been trying the get our arms around i know you know much more about it why don't you tell under the circumstances? what is happening? why are we facing these backlogs at this point? >> thanks for having me. first of all what we have before us is a national crisis. a national crisis that disrupted the supply chain >> a national crisis of disrupted the supply chain that. how do we fi

this hour, morgan stanley.

morgan stanley, different kind of animal. i think there is a higher multiple >> dan >> i think karen is correct. the morgan stanley thing is interesting. goldman sachs will be tomorrow morning. i would be more focused on them. we were focused on the interest margins. i'm kind of more in that camp less than the money banks to this point >> guy, i know you watch closing bell closely and religiously >> religiously >> the valuation of morgan stanley versus black rock, the valuation of morgan stanley is considerably lower should it reflect more of the strength in the as set management business? >> i think so. i have a memory like an elephant it has to be over a year or so ago that dan nathan pointed out morgan stanley had the best looking chart out there. a couple of years i would not have said that, but they have morphed into something a lot of people are aspiring towards, three distinct business units. i think they are growing into it i think we trade through the 195-ish and i think it will deservedly grow. >>> jim cramer sticki

stanley being lower despite you liking the results to top up at all. >> morgan stanley, i mean, the only problem is we expect really good results because they've been steady eddie and this quarter no different and shocked it was down this morning they just delivered across the board. wasn't just investment banking and equity trading and m&a which was a common theme for all the banks that have reported so far and not just that. it was their wealth management business fees were almost 10 percent age points where i expected and good wealth manage. results. efficiency ratio down and loan growth of 6% i like this story. i hope it goes down but i would be buying wells fargo today. and that should not be down. it's just too early. baby steps buy the weakness there. >> she never texts me. jealous. >> it was a big day of bank earnings. >> i email you. >> you do. >> not yesterday when there's one bank because of it was four. >> united health care adding to the dow after strong earnings. bertha coombs is back with the details. >> beating on both the top and bottom line with profits of 452 a sh

, morgan stanley. citi is no different. investment backing revenue, $1.92 billion. the estimate, $1.54 billion. the story for the equity, the stock, we are up by 1.34%. we already had a full picture of what was happening on wall street coming into these numbers. citi is up. the numbers are decent. sonali basak is still with us. your early read on these figures? sonali: huge beat on the equities business, and he did beat on fixed income as well. the investment banking division also doing well. citigroup up there in terms of the top underwriters in the world in equity underwriting. i do also have to point out that when it comes to global consumer banking, their revenue has dipped quite a bit, about 14%. lower card balances was part of that. when you look at the international business, a lot of weakness in asia as well. there will be some questions about that, but the core business is doing quite well. citigroup has a much more global footprint than some of its peers , say bank of america, so how is it do

one of my most technical smartest people when i was at morgan stanley had no college degree. it's about those intellectually curious who will relentlessly be collaborative people that we are looking for, so aptitude and attitude and we will be able to bring in people in a more flexible way and pay them closer to market.l it will importantly allow us to bring people in-and-out of industry. some people, for everyone that wants to i welcome you to reach out to me or if you know someone that wants to join sisa, but at the end of the day not everyone wants a career in government so we want toer ask people who may come in for a couple years, two years. we will kick off the program in the next couple of months, not give it all away here, but we are really trying to increase opportunities to strengthen the connective tissue between the public and the private sector because that's all about understanding each other and that brings us trust is a very exciting step. >> interesting to think about the bridge in the context of human capital and talent in ocala private sector sort of feed t

morgan stanley, bank of america, wells fargo, all and all healthy. credit card spending better than anticipated. we did see wells fargo feeling the pressure right there. some misses when it comes to growth. it has really been about that dealmaking and trading windfall. with the pandemic, we saw the m&a advisory continuing to rise. this chart on the bloomberg showing how mergers and acquisitions have been a huge part of those valleys this year. -- those rallies this year. a relief for some of the banks who have struggled with traditional lending operations. i was talking about the consumer and commercial loans still under pressure not only for wells fargo but also for jp morgan. paul: those big banks thanking the good times are going to roll for some time. talking about a long pipeline for dealmaking. we had a long ranging conversation with the morgan stanley ceo as well. he was giving his thoughts on inflation, the path ahead for the fed feeling it is time to pick the bubble a little bit and if so much as it is possible to burst the balloon. he said

joining us now, mike wilson of morgan stanley. we have had a whole stretch of insulation. would you say this is a nuance within able market wrapped around a income, commodities, etc. or are we at a point of a major change in the vectors to 2025? >> we have had that view for a while. this was the catalyst to move us out of the world we have been in for 20 years. a lot those things were happening the pandemic. d globalization, that train had already left the station. pandemics are typically inflationary so that was the perfect foil to get the transition and it has begun. normally it happens when you see big trends changing. that is what we have seen in all the inflation indicators. my best guess is that it will settle down. it will be a long journey ahead. it will take us 35 years. it will be a slow moving train. by the dip -- buy the dips on inflation. jonathan: are you saying it could drift towards that upper level, a 20% move? mike: last time we chatted about this it was prior to the situation in china. what happened here is we got more data. the idea we are not only gett

currently number one followed by jp morgan and morgan stanley. alix: it was super solid. you will be back at 10: 30. later today, the exclusive interview with the goldman sachs chairman and ceo. the good news for guy, i am deciding what to bake, we are deciding what to drink it, what to do, the u.s. can open its borders to vaccinated foreign travelers on november 8. what is the upside? >> the airlines have been asking for this for months and they are finally going to get their wish. that means that travel can get restarted. people can start going to the u.s. after months and months of lobbying. that has created carriers like lufthansa which depends on the u.s. for business. guy: what am i going to have to do, how me hoops am i going to have to jump through? >> you will have to do a covid test before flying. you need to be vaccinated. the u.s. is not allowing in unvaccinated non-americans. they do allow americans who are not vaccinated with a covid test, but none vaccinated non-americans will not be allowed into the country. while the details are a little short, they will

even at morgan stanley, it moved the needing a lot. this is not a beat the estimates quarter. this is analysts starting to think of these banks in a different way. they're not doing what you're thinking they're making fortunes. they have all figured out ways to make money away from the old curve. did you just yawn? >> no, that was not a yawn. >> hence at other stuff, but not that that was a good point. >> i was at the game last night. yawning at the checked win >> there's a lot of outrage about the need for robots at the plate. >> wow, a.i., metaverse. >> game five, arguably the two best teams in baseball, ninth inning, two outs, ah switching to retail sales, jim >> how can everybody be so wrong, carl? >> sporting goods, restaurants, general merchandise, even in the face of things that you might not be able to find. >> i think -- this was kind of a post-delta, when we had that -- we had the big delta scare, and now i think we're talking -- you listen to meg, and the question is only how long your immunity lasts. do you go six months eight months we're not talking anymore about

betsy graseck, morgan stanley, thank you very much. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: energy moving higher. heavy trading in the u.s.. coming up, the imf on monday, the world bank annual meetings will begin. what the leadership will look like will be in question. my personal favorite, william shatner it will go into space with blue origin. i feel like to me that will be the biggest deal next week. guy: a lot of star trek jokes next week. alix: after brush up. guy: i will spend my weekend thinking of all the decent quotes into decent jokes. alix: that is a good call. guy: we have minutes from the fomc next week. that is interesting in terms of the insight we would get. it is rearview mirror. as we've just been hearing from betsy gray sick, j.p. morgan will be a firm focus. the bank story will be interesting next week. earnings from bank of america, you morgan stanley, you have citigroup come you will wells fargo. friday goldman sachs plus retail sales. we will find out what alex has been up to. alix: i'm definitely buying stuff again but now

morgan stanley. again, it sets the bar very high for the other two large investment thanks. lisa: what about -- investment banks. lisa: what about the real economy? consumers still are not borrowing. how big a concern is this? sonali: a huge concern. the card business is what we have been looking out for, but average loans are up 5%. on the headline, that is a great number compared to last quarter, where you saw it flat. but it is coming from the commercial businesses rather than auto loans, home loans, and cards. so people are waiting for 2020 to for that to really turn around. -- for 2022 for that to turn around. but how much do higher rates get anyway? tom: it is original territory, buried in this are charge-offs that were have as much is the gloom, and the reserve release was nothing short of lights out, and mr. dimon releases that. fortress jp morgan is intact, isn't it? sonali: it is intact, but the question now is whether they can make money. they are showing those gains in investment banking,

this will be a tough sale, one of the reason why morgan stanley in particular from what we understand is putting restrictions on brokers selling the etf, if you're a broker at morgan stanley, they have been getting a dated merrill lynch, you name it, the request for the clients to get them and not whether it is a good investment they are saying we cannot put you in that, we have restrictions on getting into the back when etf. if you want to invest in bed quite at morgan stanley in particular you had to have $2 million in assets, high net worth and on top of that they have bitcoin fund on the platform. not futures contracts. we were talking to the big crypto investor, greg arlene house of ripple x rp, they were also dubious about this being a breakthrough retail investment because it is risky and when you invest in features is another level of explaining and here you have a brokerage firm, morgan stanley in particular is not allowing the sale of the singular brokerage channel. i think they had it right in the sense that this is for crypto and bitcoin, particularly crypto. this is a mom

we will be speaking to magdalen from morgan stanley, very wise on the bank sector. can forward to that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ dani: welcome back to daybreak europe. i'm dani burger in london. so, it seems the equity bulls aren't in hiding after all. it's all about the dip, by the s&p 500 posting its best day with a range of macro factors adding to investor sentiment. we had very robust earnings reports, as well as a drop in jobless claims and ppi posting its smallest advanced this year. plastic into these markets more. -- let's jump into these markets more. congratulations on the new role, as well. let's start with the earnings picture. we had seen some of the pace of upgrades in expectations start to dwindle heading into this earnings report. but so far, these companies have been surpassing expectations. what have the naysayers been getting wrong? >> well, you know, it's exactly as you said. it's still early days, but we've seen quite a few strong earnings results across a number of sectors, and i think we've just been underestimating how nimble a

earnings today from bank of america, citi group, wells fargo, morgan stanley, u.s. bank corp., all out today wow, all that after j.p. morgan easily beat expectations yesterday in part because of better than expected loan loss and a little bit of release from its reserve but we won't talk about that ahead of the results let's check on treasuries. the 10 year yield, pushing back lower. it is at 1.54% we also have to talk about the story in the global markets and that is, what else, energy costs on the rise. oil right now back above 81 per barrel here, 84 per barrel in europe and natural gas creeping closer to $6 as well at 5.72. >>> around the world the nikkei and japan and the cans bee in south korea wrapping up nicely we saw the nikkei raise 1.5% while shanghai and hang seng were flat against. but they were closed for the holiday. let's look at the early trade in the european markets too we are seeing gains across the board. germany, uk, france all up about.75%. as always more on the markets and your money in moments p but to some of this morning's top stories, incl

similar theme there to morgan stanley as well yesterday. the last quarter is where goldman had this extraordinary 5 million revenue print. so that has come back down as expected, a little behind forecast the consumer wealth forecast, 2 billion forecasted for 1.8 billion. that is growing. that significant part of the business though it is the investment bank tag blew this, a big beat on both lines the costs kind of in line so i'm surpriseding to see how that works out. >> the fact that the bond trading number was higher than people thought, people were concerned about that given they have greater exposure than the other banks. a big take away this week, now that we're on a friday you've had a big week, will. >> a big take away is still, still capital markets is the gift that keeps on giving, seven or eight quarters where it's been stunningly high numbers a different part, each quarter picks up the slack a. few quarters ago, it was fixed income trading, goldman to do well in that environment, even though it wasn't a key part of the quarter. b

bank of america, morgan stanley issuing new debt. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city i am jonathan ferro. , this is "bloomberg real yield." time for the auction block. monster demand for green, 12 being euros of green that. bank of america, morgan stanley topping the investment-grade, pushing weaker supply above expected. issuance continuing at a steady paste -- pace. back with us for more, krishna memani, marilyn watson, and matt brill. the appetite for debt supply, treasuries, 10, 30, has been fantastic. what is driving that, marilyn? marilyn: we are continuing to seek huge amounts of cash on the sidelines and investors trying to find carrie or yield from investors -- carry or yield from investors looking for a higher return and rate. it is a huge amount of demand for that carrie. y. we may see profit on the high-risk debt. it is insatiable. the amount of liquidity in the system, the amount of cash that investors have to invest that they need to find a return on to match is never ending right now. jonathan: on

at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. ♪♪ into strategies for the road ahead. ♪♪ ♪♪ >>> welcome back to "the exchange," everybody let's get a quick check on markets. about 50 points off the session high for the dow you can see all 30 components there. we are led higher by the dow itself unh with about a 3% gain as well this is all on the back of congress announcing a deal on the debt ceiling extension you're talking about a thousand-point rally from the lows yesterday quick check of oil as we go out. the energy complex rallying today with oil back up to about the $78 mark and the 10-year yield, how about 1.56%. back after this. y you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure n

morgan stanley is out with its earnings this morning. we have been listening to what executives have to say about inflation. ceo james gorman gave his view. >> i am not a buyer of the story that the inflation is all transitory. wage inflation is real. supply chain interruptions, talking about natural gas and other things, have been real. some of it is temporary but not all of it. we are in a period where inflation will pick up. it will force the fed's and to move more aggressively than they are planning to now. matt: highly recommend going back and watching that interview in its entirety, as you can do on bloomberg.com. to our stock of the hour, bank of america started out on a strong note. shares are holding just below a record high. dave wilson has a deeper look. dave: they have so many pieces to their business. we focus on the commercial banking side, and they are showing some growth when it comes to loans, unlike some of their peers. the lone site has been an issue in that business. one area where bank of america has benefited, along

. >> how about how this trades with morgan stanley? >> e trade, i don't know what the embedded value is for etrade, but i don't think it's enough relative to this. to your early question, coin base is probably taking some of robinhood's crypto away. but the valuation, you can go a lot of different ways. i think a better valuation -- a black stone, a black rock, morgan stanley, probably a charles schwab, i know it's materially less than this. i know it is not cool and old school, but they make a ton of money. i would much rather be buying morgan stanley than robinhood down to -- i don't know where it is now 37 >> down 9% in the after hours. we will keep watch on this >>> coming up, after hours action and later lock heemaind rt plunging how the players are playing this one. you are watching "fast money." back right after this. want more from your vitamins? at nature's bounty, we give you more. more immune support. with the only vitamin c that lasts 24 hours. more restful sleep. with the first-ever triple action sleep supplement. we put m

vonnie: some advice from the morgan stanley ceo. he called for the fed to hike interest rates and says markets are ready for those hikes. he told us that you got a break this bubble a little bit because money is to free and available right now. he pointed to wage increases, supply chain bottlenecks and surging commodity prices driving inflation higher. >> in the next several months, the market has digested that the fed has to move, not just on tapering but rate increases. with 10 rate increases away from what is considered normal. bring it up a little bit over the next year is not a crisis and not unexpected. vonnie: investigators in taiwan are searching for the cause of a building fire that killed 46 people. 41 people were injured on the early hours of thursday. the 40-year-old building housed abandoned restaurants, karaoke bars and a cinema on the lower level. 100 people, mainly older and low income households are on the upper floors. ostrow's biggest city will reopen to fully vaccinate travelers next month. a major policy shift,

at the same time, sales are decelerating, that from morgan stanley. a warning. tom: they are, but the ebitda margin on dick's sporting goods's half of the big money makers in television -- dick's sporting goods half of the big money makers. bed, bath & beyond, of course they got hammered. jonathan: i don't know of course they got hammered, but they were down 20%. tom: that's not the definition of cratered. jonathan: what is the definition, 25 percent, 30%? tom: 2%. jonathan: up 1/10 of 1% on the s&p. ♪ jonathan: remind me not to get involved in major league baseball banter. i am told the red sox are tied with the mariners, not the toronto blue jays. they are in the other corner. i appreciate that. from new york city, good morning. the price action, posited by more than 1/10 of 1%. -- positive by more than 1/10 of 1%. the russell up about 1/10. morgan stanley repeated yesterday, corporate america has some explaining to do when it comes to margins. earnings season will be fascinating, q3 as we look ahead to q4. credit suisse and andrew garth with a fantastic not

morgan stanley reiterating its buy rating on the stock. the firm citing strength in disney's streaming business, saying it remains early days for disney plus, adding, as disney's pipeline content billion in 2023, coordinate ads should accelerate, driving shares gra grasso, you like this call, are you on board with disney >> it's hard for me to give you a direct answer. i'll take two or three sentences here in march it traded at $203 i thought it was heading to that level. i didn't expect the backup we've seen recently. so i'm a little bit unhappy with that in technicals, the 50 and the 100-day are below the 200-day. so in technical terms, they developed a death cross, which usually when you develop a death cross, the movie's over. that means the stock is ready to pop. so i do believe that the stock is ready to pop. i am on board with it moving higher i do believe that they are still the king of content. and also when you look backwards, if we start to see these parks reopen, we're talking about in a normalized world just under $16 billion

having spent the last four .5 years at morgan stanley, it is interesting, two operations -- observations, when i was looking back at the government from the private sector it often came off as incoherent, not well organized to support the private sector, and that is why i think having an entity that has all of those organizations is so important to show to your point in near real time. we have to move at the speed of cyber. we know that our adversaries are. that is why i think that coherence, that cohesion, munication of authorities and superpowers across all of the federal cyber ecosystems can make a real difference. >> fail fast, test and the wild stuff, it is critical to success as you know. speaking of not telling fast -- failing fast, lead to get your feelings on president biden's executive order. two months later you are confirmed as the director. given the very limited amount of time we have here today, i would love to get your thoughts on two specific fronts that are front and center for me personally and probably many people in this room and back to this bridging the gap between

morgan stanley clawing its way into the green. guy mentioned natural gas and oil up as well. truly been an upper former as the high prices continue. you have the 10 year yield 152 with a flat near yesterday. we cannot get any action going in terms of steepener. the way we are going to go if we are looking at fed hikes may be being brought forward as price pressures continue. ppi today with the moderate pace of prices paid which is relatively transitory good sign. guy: may be. -- maybe. you take a step back from that number and it is elevated. it comes in strongly nevertheless elevated. what is happening with of supply-chain shortages, we are seeing that in germany. the economic institutes of germany came out with the latest forecast. they do it every six months and basically what they have done is slashed this year's number but enhanced next year's number. what we are talking about is demand be delayed not destroyed. you can see that quite clearly. that is the 2021 and 2022 forecast. we are lowering 2021 but raising 2022 as these factors fade. they talked about the fact there

for the jobs report, ellen centre at morgan stanley -- ellen zentner at morgan stanley expecting a higher than average estimate going into that print. is the market pricing in a november taper for the federal reserve? daniel: i think so. the fed has been pretty clear in its communication. you would have to have a pretty catastrophic payrolls figure for the fed to change the timeline it has laid out that should finish by this summer. at some point we are going to start thinking much more about hikes in policy rates, and that will be the thing that drives the markets, particularly the dollar. for now, i would almost argue that tapering is not an issue. the key thing we need to focus on is how earnings come in relative to expectations, particularly the enormously high bar we had for the first and second quarter, when surprises were so far beyond expect patient. tom: citigroup comes out with a global summary, they honor tobias levkovich. bnp paribas has been so good about framing yield against the economy. do you ascribe as well to a 2% yield out there? daniel: i don't know if i want to put a

the numbers drop from ellen zentner at morgan stanley. we expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 700,000 in september. we did expect only a slight down to can the end limit rate owing to a bump in labor force participation. we expect average hourly earnings rose, lifting the rate to 4.6%. that report just in from morgan stanley. tom: that is a healing economy. morgan stanley and others have led on this glide path, q3, q4. what i heard is a set of guesstimates that signal a healing america. what is that timeline? we don't know, but it is a healing america, not the gloom of recession. that is a big number. jonathan: we catch up with ellen zentner tomorrow, and thomas custard of picked at -- and thomas koster of picked at -- of pictet as well. now the run rate is we have no idea. kathy jones joins us now, charles schwab chief fixed income strategist. i always read about the and of easy money. what does that mean backup? -- that mean? kathy: it means an end to the support we are getting from the central bank. it does mean as we look forward,

and also this all out of morgan stanley. we are looking at the related names in the region in china, on the back of the drawdown we are seeing among coal prices. yvonne: yeah, morgan stanley saying -- start to fall after what the government was talking about, stopping the excessive profit. they are thinking that we are starting to see things look a little bit too expensive or a little bit too aggressive in terms of the bullishness on the stock, but there is caution due to the pricing pressures on the sector. david: absolutely, got to cool the coal prices down. there we go. keep it here. you're watching bloomberg. ♪ >> from the heart of where innovation, money and collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology" with emily chang. i'm lee: coming up in the next hour, facebook out with earnings. announcing a new reporting structure. if you are looking on news on

one is morgan stanley had some amazing numbers on the capex cycle in the united states the strongest since the 1940s. a lot of that surrounds s technology. >> i like jeff have switched my portfolio and added a bunch of value plays. that was done specifically because i thought we're going to be in a rising rate environment. rates hit a wall at 1.74 specifically the ten-year. now we seem to have hit a wall again around that level. we haven't breached that level again. i believe jeff is right. i think we're going to see inflation subside. you've been around this market a long time. i've been around this market as well it always sets up to hurpt the most amount of people at the same time. what i mean by that is that rates don't skyrocket and they start to come back in, that's great for technology that's great for growth. that's not great for value i'll have to make a decision as to where we switch gears i think it's a positive for the overall market >> that's going to be interesting especially going into the fall. let's look at more shares of snap today the social media giant plunges mor

that's not happening at the moment and that's a warning signal for morgan stanley wealth. shery: and we may be getting those risks in china as well. we saw the consumer spending numbers out of china's golden week holidays. they didn't look very good. they were pretty sluggish. so we will be watching the chinese market very closely as well. we got that report also coming from the "wall street journal" that they're now intensifying that probe into those watchdogs and their relationship with private companies. so that may be something more that we have to keep an eye on. of course, already, a lot of -- a lot to watch in china including debt concerns with evergrande. so haidi, the commodity spike, inflation concerns, along with another potential crackdown in china topping the agenda for investors. let's discuss all of this with bloomberg's su kennan and our markets reporter ye xie. su, let's start with the oil surge. where are we at now? su: let's go right into the five-day price chart of west texas intermediate which is traded here in the u.s., largely used in north america.

lisa of morgan stanley, greatly appreciated. alix: that was pretty snarky of you, guy, definitely a little dig. guy: it is the way to go. andrew bailey is not nixing his words, and equivocal in the fact that he's now looking in the direction of a rate hike. we will hear about the budget fairly soon. he is being pushed around by boris johnson, who would love to spend more money, but the chancellor is not going in that direction. alix: yeah, and higher energy prices, another energy supplier announcing they will not trade anymore. i do not envy you guys at all. we will hear more about the markets and how they view inflation, how the big guys think about inflation. the milken institute global conference in los angeles, we will be there over the next two days, and we will be speaking to the siemens u.s. ceo, a member of guggenheim, and much more. stay with us for that. guy: we look forward to that, and we will talk about what is happening in the u.s. housing market. the data picking up a little bit. zillow getting out of the house fl

morgan stanley are warming on the equity side of the story. the equity market is catching up a little bit with the reflation and stagflation environment. we just had marija veitmane. she is looking for industrials, capex in this reporting's season. nymex crude, $80.67. they might put more pressure on opec-plus. did not work before. it is up 70% in the past 30 days. we are up this morning on outages, physical outages, but it is about gordon, the hoarding mentality of coal -- about hoarding, the hoarding mentality of coal. they think that can break the 2% level in the near term. dani: big moves there. also today, happening in the e.u., leaders are gathering in key have -- kiev for the summit. ukraine is struggling to remain a key transit nation for gas as putin pushes ahead with the controversial nord stream 2 project. maria tadeo, thank you for joining us this morning. what is the significance of this meeting between ukraine and the e.u. within the context of energy prices jumping? maria: yes, and as always, timing is crucial. with this meeting

the chief economist at morgan stanley, seth carpenter. the central bank of erdogan cuts rates again at the lira's expense. here's dollar lira now. i'll are trying all-time highs. that is all-time weakness for the turkish lira. dollar-lira, 9.42. tom: for global wall street, this is real straightforward. on a standard deviation basis, dollar lira is weak. lira out to three standard deviations. we just touched that for a cup of coffee. the trend here is incredibly elegant. the chart is literally teach a course, we clara -- a course, week lira. mathematically, this is an incredibly persistent trend with an inertial force. the number one thing i would say is in all the time in istanbul, it is two fixed income markets. how does dollar dominated adapt? how does lira denominated adapt? jonathan: what do you think they call the recent increase in inflation over in turkey? lisa: transitory. [laughter] jonathan: i will bring you the commentary from that central bank a little bit later. inflation is running at close to 20% in turkey. a very differen

but in the medium term, the demand doesn't necessarily go away in the words of morgan stanley. not perishable and any supply shortage shouldn't impact valuation. is that fair >> i think that's definitely fair maybe the watch in particular might be a little bit more holiday gift sensitive, but for phones, people who need a phone, they need to wait, they will wait and if they get it in january instead of december, they're going to do it so, i wouldn't be, i'm not as concerned long term, you know, for the phone. the watch, it's a little bit trickier especially because they don't sell so many varieties really right now with the new lineup only sell the new series 7 watch, the apple watch se and the series 3 watch so, if you want a new one, you're really looking at a tight supply chain >> let's talk about this unleashed event coming up. it's interesting not necessarily for the product itself because it's probably a high-end laptop that is not going to be major topline growth, although the margins are pretty nice. what chip we get inside. is it an m1x and does it extend apple's story

and morgan stanley up. i can only imagine what our colleagues will be doing all day tomorrow watch those big names, the financials in the focus, kelly >> and one in the green, morgan stanley. >> the fed limits due out in the next hour, my next guest is concerned with supply chain slowing the economy. mark smith, senior vice president portfolio manager at wells fargo advisers and gregory d docko. greg, you say it's not stagflation, but it's messy. what do you mean by that >> what we're seeing a messy environment, with sticky supply chain inflation. that's a long acronym to signal the fact there's this ongoing balance between strong demand, still strong demand, and supply that's taking a bit longer to come up to that demand we're seeing that stickiness in inflation something that is different from the pure transitory team that is expecting inflation to fall back rapidly. >> and mark, do you agree with the stickiness there, does it contribute to your nervousness about the market overall >> yeah, inflation coul

quote of this morning from ellen zentner of morgan stanley. if economists were right, it was probably an accident. that feels about right for this year for sure. tom: i would say my quote of this morning is what you said. things work out. with the gloom we have had over the last days and weeks, what you said is equally important as something we will watch into this jobs report. usually with david wilson, we tried out a chart. david wilson out front on reading the literature of the street and all those followed by others, including the must-read effort of zero hedge. zero hedge published the wonderful and lengthy thoughts, and this time, brilliant on the faang stocks. dave: basically, analysts are too pessimistic. it is not just the big five of the market. it is more broadly the s&p 500. we have seen that the last four quarters, companies being well above analyst average earnings estimates. tom: what is the single why he says tom keene is wrong on amazon? david: the way he figures it, as he looked across those big five companies, he saw that in

also the investment banks, goldman sachs and morgan stanley. it will be interesting to see how they handle this expense rate of growth versus revenue growth over the next six to 12 months. jonathan: what are we learning in terms of the leading indicator for loan growth? do you see anything over the last 12 months that gives you a nice subtle signal that things will pick up? what is the leading signal you look for? gerard: there are two areas, jon, and you touched on one, the monthly data, the trust data, the credit card trust dated that comes out every month is a great leading indicator. the federal reserve data on consumer lending out of new york, the new york that, another good indicator. but number one, what we are focused on, because it is the largest loan category, and it has not recovered yet, is good old-fashioned commercial lending. what we are watching carefully is the inventory to sales ratio in this country. all-time record low. you guys have talked about supply issues over the last six months. they are intensifying today. if invento

morgan stanley says it will be spacex that lifts to trillions. morgan stanley has a $200 billion build case valuation on it, and adam jonas sees spacex as multiple countrie -- sees a spec -- sees spacex in multiple countries. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> for decades we have relied upon just-in-time delivery, and now we are beginning to find that there are real vulnerabilities with the -- vulnerabilities. what the economy needs is less bureaucracy, greater flexibility given to the private sector to ease the supply chain obstacles we are seeing. jonathan: elaine chao, the former u.s. transport secretary, catching up with caroline hyde at the milken conference on the west coast right now. in your equity market, unchanged. in your fx market, unchanged. tom: unch. jonathan: might as well say unch on the 10 year. in the commodity market, $82.03. whereas vindman -- this provides an opportun

and i'm talking about morgan stanley and wells fargo. i love the stock of morgan stanley because they've been transforming itself into a wealth management business and you could kind of see, i don't know if you could see the consistency just from this, but this is a business that is much more consistent than investment banking. look, they still have good trading underwriting and the m&a. but some new report of a top and bottom line beat of great consistency. wall street was focussed orn the investment management business they came in a little bit in what you expected but they were so strong say versus everybody else that the stock did great. and it didn't initially. initially it sold off. but i think that was a knee-jerk reaction and there was a ton of news but you have to look for it even better they're expenses came in much lower than expected although they still have room to run here when i spoke to james goreman on squawk on the street he remind pd us that morgan stanley has a big buy back that could help the stock and it ended up mo

actually 12.5% a bullish call at morgan stanley. calling it a powerful revenue growth story it's up now 46%. >>> power lunch on oil trading above $80 a barrel good for energy stocks but are there long-term consequence sns could it render itself obsolete? we'll ask when "power lunch" returns. somebody in there? [ scream ] micheal myers is still alive. tonight, our family will kill him. i want to take his mask off and see the life leave his eyes. it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. working at recology is more than a job for jesus. it's a family tradition. jesus took over his da

at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. >>> welcome back a panel of outside advisers to the fda set to meet today to consider whether to approve pfizer's vaccines for use in kids age 5 to 11 years old if approved the shots would be the first to be made available if for kids under 12, make another 28 million people eligible for vaccination for more on this and the push to get more americans vaccinated and where we stand right now we are joined by the ceo and president of the university hospital of newark, new jersey it's a pleasure to have you back on the program, doctor you've had a vaccine mandate, it's gone well you had to terminate just a couple employees after a lot of hesitancy, which we've talked about on the show, how have you done it >> the approach we have

you see the ceo of morgan stanley coming on saying m&a is on fire right now. and the consumer is strong they're paying off their debts >> well, money is cheap or free, the bankers sitting around on zoom with nothing to do so they're going to sit around and make deals the core business of these banks didn't appear to be that great it was a lot of the reserve requirements but if you're talking about another type of banking, investment banking, which sounds like you are, you think we should look at more pure play investment banks, names we don't talk about much, the paul j. -- pjt, a former 30 year morgan stanley lead banker now with his own firm >> absolutely. those are smaller independent banks compared to morgan stanley or goldman sachs they're focused on m&a activity. focus on m&a, finance rei reins reinstructering. and they also acquired a group for about 595 million a little while ago, so that's done really well for them. pjt partners is another one. these stocks are doing well and they're under the radar because everyone is focused on the big banks. i own