lisa: you look great, annmarie. annmarie: i can't tell if this is a compliment or i need to go change. lisa: you look fabulous. i love the look. tom: she is in pilgrim black with the white collar. lisa: you are not totally wrong. tom: we can continue the show. let's go to 8:30 and the economic data. mike mckee will be here to give us the brief. the deflator is a serious item. kailey: the deflator is what the fed will be paying attention to. personal and him and spending and spending that may be outpacing income. the wage conversation of the inflation conversation will come to play. when do you start to see that trickling through in the company's ability to pass on prices? tom: it is not the normal wednesday before thanksgiving. good talk on equities. michelson will be with us from morgan stanley. commodities, particularly away from oil, she will join us and she is excellent on the stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance" good morning everyone. please travel safe today. what is it, 100 42% of amer

annmarie: saturday is the president's birthday. i do not expect them to announce the fed on that day. i think it will get punted into next week. jonathan: thank you. [laughter] tom: do you think we are doing a fed show saturday? jonathan: i am off next week. [laughter] jonathan: i can be on standby for you. lisa: really? tom: that would be great. jonathan: let's have a look at what is happening in turkey. over five years, as recently as 2018, we had a three handle on this currency pair. this is the seventh straight session of a positive move on dollar lire. record weakness on the turkish lira. the turkish president said the following, -- it should decide independently. a lot of people are trying to answer the question. is the central bank independent? tom: what is so important here is this word pernicious. it is incredibly elegant and persistent. there is a technical breakpoint seven years ago, trade-weighted lira is down 77% in six years. jonathan: unreal. a huge economic experiment taking place with monetary policy. lisa: that is

annmarie: it does, and he is lining up the next one. his team is seeking a meeting to sit down with governor brainard. he already had a call with chair powell and is seeking another meeting with chair powell. this is as it is getting very close to a deadline that's been quite shifting for the white house. now they say we will find out before thanksgiving. it does seem like there is still some indecisiveness and this morning, we have a release and a statement from two senate democrats saying they do not want a reappointment of fed chair powell. this has to do with climate change. they think another candidate would better embrace climate change when thinking about monetary policy. lisa: i was reading a note this morning that said it seems like perhaps governor brain art is getting a bit more -- brainard is getting a bit more support in the chatter, although the opposition to chair powell is somewhat disjointed. is that your view also? lael brainard looks like a better chance of getting past than a week ago? annmarie: yes, more than a week

in washington, annmarie hordern. lawrence summers is writing for a whole lot of americans about the irs. it is stunning, these statistics the former secretary of treasury has put together about how the irs is beholden to the elite, beholden to the rich. it was just one statistic a number of auditors at the irs have now. i guess it is because republicans don't want the irs to be more successful. am i wrong on that? annmarie: the democrats, what we can say with sexuality, is that the democrats do -- with factual islet he -- with factuality, is that the democrats do want the irs to be more successful in going for individuals potentially skirting around some of the loopholes, and to make sure the wealthy are paying what the president would call their fair share, or paying what is due. this $80 billion for the irs is also going to come down when you look at the cbo scores because we are still waiting to get the cbo scores, and that will be a key data point to look at because the white house says that is going to boost a l

annmarie hordern, thank you. bottom line, it is late to be naming your fed chair, and it is getting more consequential. tom: you dismissed annmarie so rudely, but hasn't this administration been a bit late on everything? jonathan: yes, they have been late on a range of issues. but on this one particular issue , inflation hasn't faded this year in a thought it would, and they have complicated their ability to get through whoever they would like to get through. lisa: i do wonder if it is too late to try to confirm anyone other than jerome powell. basically, he's got to get confirmed by february, and you have a very split congress, a very split senate that has to weigh in on this. all 50 democrats have to get on board if you want to get through a more progressive type of candidate. jonathan: can you imagine what those confirmation hearings are going to be like, given the data we just got yesterday? lisa: they are going to be really contentious. this is going to be a very difficult one to get through, and we don't ha

annmarie: they sent a letter to the ftc about price gouging. we have seen administration after administration do this. it rarely wields any results. this is about long-term, looking for the data for how this happens. but the admin estrogen is looking into that. it is not going to be immediate. you're not going to immediately hit the price of dub edi and brent and it falls to the gasoline prices, but this will start to temper the prices at the pump. i think we are just a little bit under aaa's $3.50 for a gallon of gasoline. that will likely start to temper. also, this is the biggest driving season. we have thanksgiving, christmas coming up. this is when americans are out in their cars, using more and more energy, and wind the administration -- and when the a adminstration is deciding to make a point. the president will talk about that later this afternoon. tom: annmarie hordern, thank you so much. i am sure you will continue your reporting. for those of you on radio, we have broken down to the lows of about november 19. we are not quite there y

annmarie: massively. put in once the nord stream 2 -- putin wants the nord stream 2 signed and dotted. the new look at what happening in belarus. the european unit is saying to president lukashenko they need to stop pushing migrants towards the poland border. what you are seeing is very scary conditions for these migrants. freezing cold, issues potentially getting them food, and lukashenko is threatening to cut off the belarus and -- the belarusian pipeline for gas. when you look at potentially higher energy prices, europe is already coming off of a month of crisis in terms of natural gas, and this is a chokepoint. to tom's point, angela merkel really is the interloper to president putin. they spoke already this week at least two times. this is an individual that he takes the phone calls of and listens to, and she's not going to be around very soon. lisa: when it comes to the oil situation, it is a global one, particularly as the biden administration tries to bring down gas prices. there was an article on

annmarie: china making a move. the united states has been courting did -- big consumers, like japan. if we don't get a fed decision tomorrow, potentially the president will announce more barrels from the strategic reserve. this is something they have been talking about. one credit to the white house, we are waving the decision on the fed, but the intervention in the oil market has been stunning. i have been on the other end of the camera with saudi oil ministers talking down the market. i have never seen the white house do this quite the way they have over the past few weeks. his verbal intervention enough to keep a lid on oil prices? -- is verbal intervention enough to keep a lid on oil prices? everyone is worried about inflation, it comes back to consumers in the pump -- at the pump. kailey: could you argue that runs counter to the climate agenda we were talking about? annmarie: it does run counter to the climate agenda but you have seen democratic senators coming out saying you have to tap the strategic reserves

annmarie: we don't know yet. all we know is comments from lael brainard, from chair powell over the course of the year. we have not dealt with this level of inflation while these individuals were in their positions, so we don't know how they are going to act. what we do know is that both governor brainard and jay powell view the labor market and inflation as they should be working in tandem, where the -- in tandem, while there have been others who have viewed this as hierarchical. whoever is going to be the next fed chair is going to have to potentially deal with do you go for full employment of the labor market, or do you have to start moving quickly in terms of moving fed policy to temper inflation. lisa: is there really enough time to get chair brainard through as chair, or is the lack of a nomination at this point a tacit admission that it is jerome powell because he's the only candidate right now for consideration who could actually get confirmed in time to replace himself? annmarie: time is of the essence.

annmarie: jennifer granholm, the u.s. secretary, said they would look at the data before tapping them. i asked the president when will we get a response giving that opec-plus, he said he wasn't anticipating them to pump more. not enough for most consumers, but he said talking to other countries. potentially if the u.s. is going to tap, they would want to do it alongside big consumers like india and japan. the problem with tapping is the u.s. does this and great times of crisis. the last time we did it was during hurricane katrina. this is the big thing with the higher prices where most analysts see oil prices higher, where they are an even closer to a hundred dollars a barrel likely. jonathan: a big win for this president down in washington, d.c. negotiations still to be gun -- still to be done. matt: i think for our viewers, for wall street, probably the most important issue is the state and local tax deductions, salt cap at $10,000 put into place by president trump. some in congress wanted to raise it to $80,000, but yo

annmarie: they do not think it is ok. you heard from senator schumer telling the administration to tap spr because i need these gasoline prices to go softer around the country, especially in places like new york. i was in new york, and they are higher gasoline prices. these are things that bother the electorate. what democrats are starting to realize, when you have senator schumer coming out and telling the white house publicly you need to do more, they are clearly realizing that their messaging over the past few weeks and about the sausage making in d.c., that is not want the electorate wants to hear. lisa: we heard three messages from three people -- janet yellen's and, once we get rid of covid, inflationary pressures will abate. president biden saying that there will be more support for supply chains. chuck schumer saying release more oil from the spr. these are all different messages and none of them are sticking. i am wondering how to dovetail the conversations to a fed, what the end nutrition would want -- would the

annmarie: have not seen it. guy: i want to be chevy chase but know i will have to find matt miller to be chevy chase. if i was going to be one of those characters, that is who i will be. i will let annmarie say later off-line who she will be. alix: she has not seen it. guy: she has no idea. alix: knapp. -- no. i knew you would do that. it is inevitable -- guy: it is inevitable. let's talk about the next 34 hours. the bloomberg new economy for them continues. we will monitor the great conversations out of that. will be fascinated to hear the latest out of the chip sector. alix: tomorrow retail sales. fed heads richard clarida and mary daly will be speaking at the economic policy conference. footlocker will report in the u.s.. that wraps it up for me and guy in london. coming up, new york august been gregory reached will be joining david westin -- gregory meeks will be joining david westin on "balance of power" on tv and radio and guy and i will be headed to radio as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is a handfu

annmarie: i guess it depends on the number. he will likely point to what he has been doing with the current fed chair, jay powell, who says inflation pressures are transitory. we should also note his economic team is debating whether or not to keep jay powell in that slot, but that is likely going to be a talking point. if we do see pressures start to ease, he's going to talk about the fact that the creative maneuvering his administration is trying to do in terms of alleviating those concerns is actually working. jonathan: and that is going to be the focus a little bit later. good to catch up. annmarie hordern over in baltimore. the president set to address the public a little later on. i am with you, that is going to be the elephant in the room a little bit later on this afternoon. if it's got a six handle, it is a bigger elephant. the range is pretty wide. 5.4% at the low, 6% at the high-end. i don't think it really resonates with the electorate if you say it is going away next year. we have been talking about that through mu

annmarie: same party. i think what you saw friday evening come down to the wire in terms of having the votes to try to get across the finish line, the heart infrastructure, the president himself putting out a statement saying when these votes come up, please vote yes, this was after they lost virginia in a tight race -- bridging you and in a tight race in new jersey. i think it will be very difficult to cast this narrative with only to mccright votes -- to pass this narrative with only democrat votes. jonathan: it is on the radar, top of mind for us, who is the next fed chair. of course it is. i just don't know how big this is playing down in washington. joe mathieu indicated it is not really. tom: i agree with that. i went back and looked at some of the newspaper reports under the greenspan redo i bush senior, and it was the same idea. it was a big debate for a select group, no question about it. jonathan: do you remember when they floated the larry summers nomination in the obama years? that was shut dow

annmarie: i wouldn't go that far yet. we only just heard from beijing. we still need to see what india, south korea, and japan will do. is the intervention enough, or will the u.s. have to tap the sdr to try to ease concerns for consumers at the pump? that is really the president's biggest problem, those rising prices in gasoline and groceries and just the threat of higher inflation still yet to come. guy: groceries and gas, a lot of people pay attention to that. annmarie hordern, thank you very much, indeed. let's stay with the energy theme. propane prices in the u.s. have dropped from their recent highs. so are concerns over a winter shortage story a little bit overdone? suburban propane partners is one of the largest suppliers in the nation. their ceo michael stivala joins us now. october saw the highs. we have faded since then. are we going to be ok this winter, or are we going to revisit those highs, do you think? michael: first of all, thanks for having me this morning. really appreciate being on the show. the supply situation in the u.s. is not ne

annmarie: does not look like it will be a merry christmas for congress. we are exactly where we were a month ago when we are able to lift the debt ceiling and avoid coming up to the edge of that cliff. now treasury secretary yellen will have to let congress know again what is that date. maybe into january. she will give us a range time of that date. there is a lot of pressure on congress trying to get through a massive spending intact land on top of the debt ceiling. a stopgap funding measure will be need to be done as well. time is ticking and then we have two weeks of working days left. guy: she cannot believe congress would make a mess of this but zoomable believe the democrats are on their own. annmarie: mitch mcconnell, the minority senator from kentucky, was able to mitigate away from the democrats to do it an easy way in congress. now he is saying republicans will not line up or it. for republicans, even though it is past debts, for them as a moment of focus because they are against larger fiscal package the democrats want to push through. we are b

annmarie: he will have this port as his backdrop. this port is very different from the chaos we see on the west coast in los angeles and long beach. this port, there imports are stable. for some it is actually below pre-pandemic. we can see a ship moving away. this is a r

annmarie: one thing on inflation from the d.c. point, clearly the president is using his economic agenda is a point to say it is actually going to relieve inflationary pressures, but he is talking about those long-term inflationary pressures. the cbo score i am really looking out for, we have the score from the bill on their analysis, the congressional budget office, but the inflationary impact we will get in january, and i have wondered if this means that some key senators will use that as a way to potentially slow up the process. eysenck of senator joe manchin, who has then for months talking about that he doesn't believe that inflation is transitory. he wrote to jay powell in early august saying we are overprescribing our economy, overstimulating the patience of the u.s. recovery. alix: katie, how do you hedge inflation right now? katie: obviously, equities should in theory be a natural inflation if you pick the right companies because you want to pick the companies that can pass on rising costs. if we do have a continued backg

annmarie: emmett to -- imminent to indecisiveness. president biden is still deciding whether he is going to reappoint jay powell or nominate lael brainard. just quickly on the timeline, four days would be friday when they are going to have that big white house ceremony with a part in the turkey, or saturday. but saturday is the president's 79th birthday. i don't see the president announcing the chair of the fed then. but we will have a decision before thanksgiving. the white house also has to have the votes in the senate. by and large, the senate will support either of the president posture choices. the market believes monetary policy will remain the same. guy: i wonder what the president is wanting for his birthday this year. better approval ratings definitely on his list. annmarie: lower inflation. guy: that is perfect. what is separating these two? why is this decision taking so long, and why does it appear to be so hard? i am really struggling with this because they seem to be putting much on the same page when it comes to what ne

the latest from annmarie hordern, our washington correspondent. where is the risk for a geopolitical mistake? annmarie: things are brewing in europe. first, you have this buildup that we saw on the spring. about a hundred thousand troops were building on the border and that was tempered in president biden called president putin and that led to the geneva summit. russian papers are reporting there can be a virtual talk between the two before the end of the year and maybe at the start of next year. then you compile this with the fact that there is a border control issue between belarus and poland and because of that, the eu and allies are thinking of putting sanctions on belarus and president lukashenko is saying if you do that, i am cutting off gasoline. 20% of russian gas goes through belarus. chancellor merkel has called putin twice this week. she is gotten nowhere with him. he does not want to do any favors for the europeans as he is waiting for the go-ahead on nord stream 2. there is one calculation of potential risk in the future. merkel is ab

annmarie hordern, damian sassower. what was the process like to get here? do we know what happened behind closed doors? annmarie: we knew the president spent at least an hour with each individual, and his allotted time went over with governor brainard. it was clear that these were the two top individuals for that spot. he also spoke to a number of senators, including senator warren who was at the white house recently, senator sherrod brown, who will be the first line of organized net panel for a hearing for these individuals as early as december. we have been waiting for this decision. prior administrations have made the decision earlier, so this is coming a little late in the schedule. perhaps they were waiting to see if they had the votes for these two. sherrod brown has said he but either of these candidates would be able to get through. i would just look at their past numbers. it was 84-13 when governor powell became chair powell, and in 2014 -- and things have really changed since 2014. governor brainard, hers was in the 60's, so potential he she did n

you predicted it bashar washington correspondent annmarie hordern -- our washington correspondent annmarie hordern. he has gotten other countries to go along with them? annmarie: 50 million barrels, 30 million to borrow now and replenish later, and 18 million which congress has given authorization to at the administration will put it out

bloomberg's annmarie hordern joining us. thank you. let's turn our attention to what is happening in the markets. the stoxx 600 currently treading 478, which is going up a little bit. we were up earlier today to 480. fresh records. quite a lot of actions in the bond market. ecb yields currently .1249 -- 1.249. earlier, we were up significantly more than that. some widening their concern about what is -- there, concerned about what is happening on the periphery. alix: we had the big melt up and now we are taking a break from that. we closed to records on friday. we have seemingly some strong direction earlier in the session and now our taking our pedal off the gas. energy up by 1.5%. bank of america upgraded brent for the end of next year. financials surprisingly down 0.1%. steepening in the u.s. still just about four or five basis points. that is putting pressure on the nasdaq 100, now flat after closing on the record high on friday -- at the record high on friday. now in relation to what we are seeing in australia, it will be very int

annmarie: we just don't know the exact timeframe. when we asked the president in glasgow, he has said we will know sometime soon, but now it does seem like it is coming a little closer to that decision. the fact that our colleagues are reporting when governor brainard was at the white house last week to meet with the president, it was to interview for the top job. many have speculated potentially he would keep powell at the top job, but put brainard as part of the supervisory chair position that quarles is leaving, but we now that -- we now know that powell potentially has a serious rival. mike mckee has a great threat on twitter, but potentially, will she have a little harder confirmation hearing? is this something potentially bought and wants to extend some political capital on? it would definitely be a nod to progressives, who thinks she is much tougher on banking regulation, even though brainard and powell are really lockstep when it comes to monetary policy. the changes would be in terms of banking regulation, yes g policies, es

let's kick off with annmarie hordern. we have been pushing for this infrastructure bill for a very long time. he is going to sign it into law, 1.2 trillion dollars. sounds massive. is it a victory with consumers as worried as they are about inflation? annmarie: it is a great question. the president is certainly going to tout this is a victory. the former administration could not get it done. it was a long running joke in washington that every week was infrastructure week. finally, this administration was able to deliver that, signing the agreement into law today. your second part of the question is very interesting because what we are seeing in the polls is the president has a new low approval rating, 41%. you need to look at when those phone calls were done for that polling. it was done after the hard infrastructure which, across the country, is widely seen as a success. that calling of the polls was done after, but still did not help the president. that brings me to your final point, and that is inflation. you look at t

annmarie: move back up slightly. i've been hearing your debate the entire morning, and i am on team alix on this one. wti just over a month ago was north of $85 a barrel, and we have seen over the past few weeks the united states has this verbal intervention. washington verbally intervening in the oil markets, and it worked. wti prices are down, and now they are just putting their money where their mouth is and saying we will tap into the spr. you are seeing other consumers add modest barrels to the market , so i think that is on one hand what some of this is. this has been talked about, and it was very much so baked in. i think that verbal intervention worked. but the second thing and potentially why you see market moving a bit higher is the ball is now in riyadh's court. the secretary-general said yesterday, and spr release potentially may move saudi to want to ratchet back their production. they are supposed to be producing every month or adding 400,000 barrels a day, potentially with consumers at a more barrels t

annmarie hordern is at the white house. president biden's pick for the fed chair, win or get news on that? damian sassower has the take away from yesterday's virtual summit between president biden and president xi. consumers are opening their wallets. retail sales numbers up for a third month in a row. senate banking chairman sherrod brown talking about the fact that the white house pick for the fed is "imminent." that is the story i think we should really be starting on. jim bullard spoke to bloomberg earlier on this leadership story we are all focusing on over at the fed. >> no matter how this comes out, if there is a lot of continuity, both of these players have long track records at the fed, so certainly is a big committee. people have to keep that in mind , and there's a lot of experience on the committee, so i think we would see continuity. guy: we don't know what is going to happen. if you read through the sharad brown statement, he's not even tear a decision has been made. let's go to the heart of the matter. bloomb

here with more is in reordering -- is annmarie hordern. annmarie: the president saying infrastructure week finally, met with some laughs from a very tired press corps, but that is something that this administration is able to go to the american people and say we delivered something the former administration could not, and that is why it is a long running joke in washington. but it wasn't without its bickering within the democratic party. friday evening it really came down to late-night negotiations to make sure they can bridge this gap between moderates and progressives to get this over the line. they came to agreement that they will go along with this as of now, which is the moderates saying that as of november 15, congress is out of session right now, they will pick up that build back better agenda. this is the larger tax and social spending agreement, and that is how the president was able to get this over the line. he needed republican votes, though, so you can already see that the next piece of his legislation is going to be met with

annmarie hordern joining us now to talk us through this. how does spending more money help the inflation story? annmarie: he says it is going to bring it down, and once again yesterday, he pointed to this letter from a number of nobel laureates, including joseph stiglitz. in that letter, these economists back to his plans for his economic agenda and say it will ease long-term inflationary concerns. right now, what this white house is up against is getting rid of and trying to ease short-term inflationary concerns. that is what people are worried about. the president said we are seeing wage growth. we are seeing the job market backup get we have problems. those problems he pointed to our rising energy costs. it is much more expensive to get a gallon of gasoline, as it is to get bread. it is rented, it is food. all of this is playing out. you can see tension in the democratic party. we heard from senator manchin, who has really blasted the fed for calling it transitory for a number of weeks. yesterday he was at it again. then you have others

we are joined by our washington correspondent annmarie hordern to cover both of them. we are starting to get news about the summit. what we know? annmarie: it is supposed to be happening monday evening and there are really no deliverables for it. it is supposed to be a frank conversation between the leaders. jake sullivan spoke about the fact it is about managing a relationship, making sure you are putting guardrails on the relationship. what will likely come up is trade. china wants tariffs taking away e'

annmarie: it will be a little bit of both. this is him touting both of his economic agendas and his two legislation, one he is trying to get past and one he is still trying to get past. he will make that case for the heart infrastructure which

annmarie: we have already seen prices come off the highs. the white house has been verbally intervening in the markets, saying they have the ability to tap the fdr, the strategic petroleum reserve. they are talking to consumers. and they may actually do it. that was enough to push brent below $80 a barrel recently. now enough to keep the lid on. a lot of this is priced in. what we have found out is the white house is considering potentially as soon as tomorrow, the president announced tapping into the spr. we also heard from indian officials as well, potentially japan. china is looking into it. it would not just be the u.s. alone and this would make more of an impact. the u.s. acting alongside major consumers after the fact that opec-plus snubbed them. not just the white house, the snubbed a number of capitals around the world were dealing with higher energy costs. shery: let's now get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: thank you. the u.s. has issued a level four travel warning to germany, advising americans to avoid trav

jonathan: we will catch up with annmarie hordern. can you reconcile these two issues? >> the president's has he sees the irony. the u.s. was one of the most aggressive delegations when it came to the communique and trying to put ambitious language on climate change but at the same time they are talking to other massive consumer countries and trying to coordinate what they are going to do to pressure opec-plus. the u.s. president called out saudi arabia and russia. both of those leaders not at that g20. but calling them out for not producing more. and he also called out russia and china were not stepping up, not showing up in the physical sense but also in the sense that they are not onboard with those ambitious language. the president said he was disappointed on climate language he saw the irony of trying to push fossil fuel producers to produce more, but he said it is irrational to think you are going to move overnight to renewable sources. >> is biden facing any pushback from his own party, given the fact that one cure to getting to a faster transition to cleaner fue

annmarie: you can get luggage -- brian: you can get luggage using your case points. there are different ways to use them. we are seeing people traveling longer and spending more on travel, especially because they can work from abroad. a lot of people are spending a couple of weeks traveling abroad. that is the key trend i think will be a boon for the travel industry. there'll be more expensive stays in flights as travel continues to recover. michael: -- tom: marriott and marriott bond boyd darkened the door in the hotel people have been through a nightmare. what is the distinction between airline points guys cards and the hotel cards? brian: you get 70 parts for $95 car you get a free night at a hotel. it is easy to get value back on those hotel branded cards. where consumers are frustrated with hotels is because of covid we cannot update you. i think what the hotel industry will have to reconcile his with the staffing issues they are having, rates are up, they are making money. consumers are getting more agitated with paying for full service and not getting it. that

joe: ask annmarie hordern how that news conference went to saturday. i think she had a couple things to say to the president. there is a terminal at the white house. they could look into this. the white house -- there's not a lot the white house can do. the entire supply chain is controlled by private companies. adding more truck drivers on the road would help, but the white house is watching this while it is engaged -- it is watching the outcome from the sidelines. jonathan: on supply chains and more, joining us from the cop26 summit is the ceo of daimler. we can talk about bigger issues where you are now. on the supply chain, are you starting to see things improve? if you are, what specifically? >> we have been mostly affected by the semi conductor situation and believe the quarter three was the quarter that was most effected -- affected. we are seeing improvement in quarter four and into next year. there is an element of uncertainty. the main chip suppliers said there will be restrictions throughout the year 2022, so we are not out of the woods yet.

tom: have thanksgiving dinner with annmarie hordern. i don't know what she's got going on. i think ben's chili bowl up on u street. but have a good time. thank you so much, with bloomberg government today. we forget, i forget, fancy people forget the actual statistic for inflation. in one hour and six minutes, we've got a survey statistic of one measure, pce deflator. that is what the fed uses. five point 1%. we lose perspective. kailey: up from -- lisa: up from 4.1% on the previous read. this would be the fastest pace of inflation going back to 1990. this is what the fed is watching. they are watching prices go up. they're watching the labor market tightening. they are seeing wages rise, but it is not an inclusive kind of labor market yet. this is the tension. what do you sacrifice? what do you react to first, inflation, or a low unemployment rate that they are looking for? tom: mervyn king, the former governor of the bank of england, he has an article on bloomberg opinion. i put it out on twitter. the former governor of the bank of england just tears to shreds that we are