alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. tom, on the nasdaq, an eight-day winning streak into thursday. tom: the unspoken yesterday was the explosion in small-cap. small is beautiful. this is about economic growth, a bet that off of a measured, in control fed, you will see continued economic growth in america. jonathan: eight patient chairman underpinning that after yesterday. tom: michael mckee is the toughest interview in economics. once again, mixed keep brought him to -- mckee brought him to silence. and the bank of england do the same? jonathan: maybe. we can play it again later. the bank of england coming up later. a live meeting, according to the chief economist. lisa: markets are pricing in a full rate hike. they are still purchasing bonds. do they continue that and hike rates at the same time? jonathan: only a month left of qe. lisa: signaling that is somebody and a market that is calling the fed and the bank of england's hands. tom: it is all about the margins, the marginal changes. the chairman yesterday in his ow

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market just off all-time highs. futures softer by 0.1%. it is all about chairman powell a little bit later. tom: we will have special coverage with some terrific guests lined up. after the press conference, it is the then what. the jobs report is getting no respect today's on. -- no respect two days on. jonathan: the extra leverage senator manchin may have gotten overnight by the political events in this country. tom: some predicted it, many did not. the republicans win. new jersey is a job dropper. we don't know yet. 88% of the vote in. we will see how that goes. but it is is a readjustment. the liberals had a tough night. jonathan: you raise an important question here. what is the big surprise, the swing in virginia or how tight new jersey is? lisa: new jersey i think is the bigger surprise, but the fact that both are occurring at the same time are raising the cloud of democrats potentially losing the 2022 elections. jonathan: the president of the united states returning

tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. a stellar retail sales report in america, the conversation about -- inflation, growth is looking good. yields are at 162.84. the euro dollar, 1.13. crude, $79.66. a report from the south china morning post that the u.s. and china has had a conversation about a joint effort to release crude reserves. no results or follow-through. tom: we will have to see about that huge point in singapore and malaysia or the oil comes around and off the pacific rim. we will hear more about that at the bloomberg economy forum. leading the way in washington, annmarie hordern. everyone is trying to find out when the appointment is. the other parlor game you can do if you are bored with the red sox hot stove lead, you can go to website where they are talking about the estimate of annmarie hordern's christmas shopping. set yourself up for huge disappointment and the ability to raise tax revenues. how tangible is that? annmarie: this comes down to potentially how much money if you give the irs to really clam

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market futures up 17, up 0.4% on the s&p. it is day two reaction to that cpi print. tom: dr.

lisa abramowicz and tom keene with kailey leinz, jonathan ferro is off. we are going to get to an important set of economic data. i do want to mention, john deere , they have you density to report their earnings on the wednesday before thanksgiving. they have a banging up number coming off a difficult 12 month trailing. fourth quarter riley -- fourth-quarter rising with a net gain of 19%, showing nominal gdp recovery. uaw contract agreement shows commitment to john deere's workforce. this is part of the inflation, wage inflation which is maybe not quite there yet. lisa: yet yet that they are benefiting from what we were talking about, the demand for food has reignited the demand for good. interesting to see their 2022 production sales expected to be 20% to 25%. net sales in the fourth quarter are looking lower. tom: it is a mixed fixture. -- mixed picture. let's move onto this pandemic. thanksgiving will not be as stressful as last thanksgiving, but certainly the losses, the injury, the harm we have seen the last few months. bhakti hansoti joins us, profe

lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, matt miller. in your equity market, down 11 on the s&p, negative two tens of 1%. euro-dollar down 7/10 of 1%. lisa, help me sum this up. instructions in austria and potentially more to come in germany. lisa: you are seeing the incidents of hospitalizations and deaths start to climb dramatically and how do you account for that at a time when there is a huge resistance to getting vaccinated for a large port -- large part of the population. jonathan: making it compulsory in austria -- lisa: good luck. will they be able to implement that in any real way? jonathan: it is for them to follow through. you've said how difficult this would be to replicate elsewhere. matt: it would be incredibly difficult in germany because you have such a huge anti-vaccination, anti-science contingent there. it really looks american, which brings us home. it would be impossible to implement something like that here. austria is a special case in terms of a country. it's a very mountainous region. you may not see your neighbo

lisa abramowicz, $75.41 on wti. there is some persistent weakness here to see if we go through the november 19 level. lisa: this is a big move, the biggest driver from the strategic petroleum reserves. the idea that they are winning to take big action if it is coordinated. now all eyes go to opec+. are they going to respond? can they try to offset this by reducing their output, or is this going to stick, at least in the short term, as we wait for things to normalize a bit more? tom: i wonder about the price dynamic. i want to go back to core micro economics. it is about units, which is barrels, versus actually affecting price. it is a lot harder to affect price. kailey: it is also going to take a wild to trickle down. as the president is facing plunging approval ratings in real time, looking for some kind of win or for the american public to recognize he is taking action, that isn't necessarily going to feel the impact of this immediately. it could take some time, and it ultimately is going to matter how large this

from new york city, tom keene and lisa abramowicz and tom ferro. futures positive 50 and we advance around .3%. yields are unchanged. the main event in the fs market is darl -- dollar-lire. 10.9765 is the high. that is off of the back of a 100 basis point cut, and one of the most hawkish things that i have heard for a wild. they will study ending the rate cuts in december. tom: they have to get to december and i think the dynamic folks were confused by the chart, i was going to call it -- it a modest strengthening and a disappointment of this announcement. you wonder what they want, they want mr. erdogan to have an understanding of econ 101, that is really what is missing. jonathan: it is counterintuitive, for those of us wondering if i was being sarcastic, i was. it is the most hawkish thing that i have heard in quite a while. lisa: the idea that we are talking about a bank that dismisses the fundamental economic principles that tightening rates and policy and raising rates will lead to lower inflation and they outright reject that. tom: we have t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting your trending week started. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. your equity market up 11 -- hero -- euro equity market up 11. looking down to d.c. it is all about the president's next move. tom: i agree but it is also the theme of getting into next year. i love the lineup of guests through brief us. just first rate. in moments, we will go in search of dow jones' 38,904.47. we interpolated the extrapolate of the standard and poor's 500. jonathan: price target on the s&p 500 is 400 from morgan stanley. they are underweight united states, overweight the likes of europe and japan. tom: others go against that. there is a lot of divergence of opinion, including on the next fed chair. jonathan: not just the next fed chair but the next fed rate. morgan stanley says, q1 2023, inflation starts to moderate. lisa: fascinating call. i was struck by the idea that the federal reserve has the ability to push back against the political shift, trying

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. into tuesday, it is an eight-day winning streak. tom: can we say that this morning, we are on the edge of steam major? jonathan: on 30's, we come in a couple of basis points to about 1.86%. the curve has been flattered over the past several months. there's a conversation no one real yields, deeply negative through the curve. tom: 30 year out to a record. i had a feature in the previous hour -- two hours ago, i should say. you look back 60 years, and i can't say we have never seen this, but the rarity of this back to the 1970's, it is singular. jonathan: lisa, you have talked about how supportive this bond market story is. lisa: it goes to the tina trade. what ins the tina trade -- what ends that he makes raid? you wonder -- the tina trade? you wonder. people have this money saved, and look what we have. we had the scenario we are looking at right now. jonathan: we've got to talk about who is going to be leading the federal reserve beyond early next year. will it be chairman powell, or

i'm lisa abramowicz, alongside kailey leinz and anna edwards in london. tom ferro, john keene -- john -- jon ferro, tom keene both off. what we are looking at this morning is a market in turmoil, reassessing all of the rate hike expectations, reassessing the reopening trade

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 11 on the s&p, advancing 0.25%. the outlooks starting to pour out for 2022, and they feature, many of them, interest rate hikes. tom: i've ordered the smoked turkey as we go into the thanksgiving holidays. you are absolutely right. this is the weekend of the great reset for next year. jonathan: wells fargo going with two interest rate hikes next year. "we expect multiple hikes next year to correct a policy misstep." a view they hold, but this debate is still incredibly divided. tom: can we announce the policy misstep now? i understand sell side is out there with the crystal ball to try to look at where we are going, but a ta -- but i take issue with announcing a misstep now. jonathan: many other people are, and slitting my medullary and. i will -- r, including mohamed el-erian. i will catch up with him later. lisa:lisa: as you take a look at some of the derivatives trading, people are now pricing in three full rate hikes by the first three months of 2023. people

i am lisa abramowicz. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: an economic peptalk ahead of the holidays. >> record job growth. the strongest recovery in the world. our economy has created a record 5.6 million jobs since i became president, but we still face challenges. challenges in our supply chain which is part concerns about shortages and higher prices. america has a lot to be proud of.

matt: -- tom: lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, tom keene. j sherman saying we should see an announcement today according to punch bowl. looking for confirmation from the white house. we do have confirmation you get lucky when you speak to smart people. we do that right now with matthew liz eddie -- matthew l uzetti deutsche bank. it was interesting for you to put in a conversation on the fed leadership going or were. it was interesting -- i want you to talk about the hawk and dove of the slots to be filled. how abrupt of a shift will the new federal open market committee be? matthew: i do think there are differences, particularly in how jay powell and lael brainard viewed the broad versus inclusive part of the dual mandate. the most important things is there will be constraints on policy. one is inflation is high and will remain in the driver seat endoscope pump even if you do get a dovish shift in the chair and brainerd would represent that, you have a hawkish voting block for the committee next year from a regional fed voter perspective an

kailey leinz sitting in for lisa abramowicz. lisa will be back next week. on the nasdaq, up 0.8%. switch up the board and get to what is happening elsewhere. we talked about crude already in this turnaround, up by four pointed percent. it is not a big move. aussie-yen had a move of 2.6% in friday's session. take that good risk proxy, the haven status, -2.6 percent on friday's session. today, a move 0.1 per 5% -- a move of 0.5%. tom: it is a huge pacific rim proxy, along with asia dxy, and the answer is we don't know. you mentioned it earlier, zero covid is the theme in asia. you wonder with oma krohn -- with omicron, how are they going to handle it? jonathan: as you have set all morning, we've got to wait for more information on this virus. jonathan: let's talk about the bond market. your 10 year yield down 14 basis points in friday's session, now up just five to about 1.55%. that meeting for the federal reserve is going to be fascinating. we still don't have the information we need to get some clarity on this mutation. kailey: the fed may have to make that decision without inform

alongside lisa abramowicz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p advancing 0.07%, up 2% on the week last week. this forecast from ubs, i keep thinking about it. we've got the likes of credit suisse and others up at around 5k for year end next year. just 6% upside from here from the team over at ubs for the next two years. lisa: michael purves of tallbacken coming out and saying he sees 5% by year end. what we see a slowing growth backdrop? that is a scenario people see. they keep things chugging along. jonathan: eps growth to slow to 13 but 1% from a gain of 51.6% estimated in 2021. matt, you said earlier in the program, who cares about the fed? when it comes to the equity market, it has been a big earnings story. matt: i think the earnings growth figure is really key because as the comps get more difficult, you will not get the same kind of growth we will have from a total lockdown during the pandemic last year, but still, 13.1% isn't bad. compared to 50%, it doesn't sound like too much, but that is really good growth over a year like this

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 0.3%. for macy's, it is a beat and a raise. tom: it is a technology raise as well. i go back to 2019, and this is not target, not home depot, but they are up 8% plus going back to sales in 2019. a fairly clear press release, they increased 19% through the pandemic. they have grown 49% since pre-pandemic. that gives you an idea of the new reality is what you do against amazon. jonathan: it is fair to say that retailers in america are executing. tom: they are executing in a new world. i'm romantic. you and lisa i am sure as a kid did this. i wanted to bring back the wooden escalators at herald square. jonathan: the narrow ones? did you fit into the? -- into them? tom: no i did not. it was a moment where we could feel british. wooden escalators from another time. jonathan:

jonathan: matt miller, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. your equity market down 14 on the s&p, negative one third of 1%. treasures are rallying, yields lower by one basis point. the view from ubs next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is difficult to see how, at current levels, multiples expand further. >> i think some of the high valuations may be worth it in some cases. >> i think we come close to double digits. >> corporation fundamentals couldn't be better. >> you are looking at a strong trajectory for growth over the next several years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a little bit of risk aversion to end the week. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa

lisa abramowicz, matt miller, jonathan ferro. here is the price action off what is happening the back of europe. restrictions and austria. more to come, perhaps, in germany and the rest of the continent. small caps have struggled, down more than 1%. a big move in euro dollar. we are back to about 0.9% lower. the bid on the german bond market following through in the treasury market. and crude back with a 76 handle. lisa: this is significant. we thought we were on the precipice of a huge change. on the airline stocks, we thought it would free up, people would begin to travel again. that is getting canceled, highly short-term. jonathan:jonathan: that is where the focus is on the united states, right now, speaker pelosi on the house floor. greg valliere joins us now. let's start right here. what we can achieve today in the house and how much longer it would take to achieve the same thing in the senate. greg: we will get it, probably today, in the house. but i will issue a fake out alert. even if the house passes it today, the senate

alongside lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro, together today with matt miller. tom keene back tomorrow. a seventh straight day of gains into monday. it could become eight. this equity market is hot. lisa: definitely fueled by earnings, as well as rates that remain low. i would just say i am not bearish, but the air is getting thinner. at what point, how much fuel does this have left at a time when we are facing slowing growth heading into next year? jonathan: i thought the back end of last year, that was the question. did we just put out a 25% gain for 2021, at least so far, so good. lisa: that was with a huge fiscal and monetary stimulus both firing in tandem. you have a changed environment heading into next year. you will have withdrawal of stimulus not only for the federal reserve, but globally on some level that you should think will affect the market in some meaningful way. jonathan: are you excited for fed speak later? lisa: i thinklisa: it will be a really interesting. they want to clarify. they will say uncertainty, that is what we are responding to. jon

kailey leinz in fort lisa abramowicz. the equity market up, big on treasuries. the unwind of the unwind that a muted one. crude lowered by more than 10% friday. this morning up by five. tom: brent crude down from 84. we have peter hotel is joining us later. we are paroled -- thrilled to bring your joshua sharfstein he has been a measured voice for bloomberg surveillance. jon and i feel we should lead with science. we have felt frenzy the last 24 hours. how do we constructively generate a measured alert even our fears? andrew: we have been talking about the potential of more variants. they could form in places that are under vaccinated. this variant has a number of concerning mutations that resemble some of the other variants that we had. none totally escaped the vaccine. we have to go through the process of studying this variant while we continue to take precautions to prevent spread. this may well not be as dangerous as other variants, but it may have the capacity to infect people who are vaccinated. tom: what will this do to the unvaccinated? unvaccinated are

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing zero point 1%. we keep waiting. tom: it is almost like waiting for a new yankees manager. we are waiting, and what is fascinating here, get out the calendar, you were right week

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a sleepy wednesday morning. from york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged. we wait for the chairman of the federal reserve. tom: getting resiliency off of earnings reports like we saw from target earlier on. what i am going to show is the vote for the american economy, and that is a vote for a stronger dollar, now buttressed up against important levels, particularly against the euro. jonathan: very briefly, 96 handle on the dollar-euro. we are seeing a re-acceleration in this economy into year-end. tom: as we said, there's a heated opinion. we will have a wonderful conversation pushing against the laser optimism -- the laidler optimism. i agree with what you said i think two days ago, this is a moment of no consensus. it is a moment of different opinions. jonathan: we will catch up with morgan stanley in just a

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market a little softer, -15 on the s&p, down 0.3%. the data 90 minutes away. tom: equities finally reacting to what we see on fixed income. on this cpi wednesday, the linkage of inflation dynamics into the fixed income market front and center. jonathan: and the international price pressure as well. ppi out of china, 26 year high. that can bleed out to the rest of the world. tom: brazil coming out minutes ago, 10% on their inflation as well. these are big numbers. jonathan: the incoming economic data, trying to understand it and apply it to monetary policy, and to push it through the bond market. really complex and quite difficult at times. friday was a great example of that post payrolls. lisa: basically, they are buying the line that the fed is saying, even if they stay transitory is becoming a dirty word. that is the message the bond market is saying. i wonder at what point the bond market starts to react to the data, particularly with employment coming in as hot as it i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market just off all-time highs. futures softer by 0.1%. it is all about chairman powell a little bit later. tom: we will have special coverage with some terrific guests lined up.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market futures up 17, up 0.4% on the s&p. it is day two reaction to that cpi print. tom: dr. el-erian really talking it up in "the ft," and you wonder what the substantial further progress will be to get any central bank to look at inflation, double anything considered normal. jonathan: people are so dug in on this debate. did yesterday and that print change anybody's mind on anything? tom: absolutely not. we need to see a sequence of prints. where it is going to come from is this really strange thing called owners equivalent. you flunk exams trying to explain it. only mckee at bloomberg understands it. jonathan: it is going up. even if you strip out the energy story, it is going up. it is stickier, broader, and a lot of people are funding it very difficult to remain open-minded about incoming data to shift their view for the. path forward. they have become so -- for the path forward. they have become so dug in. the bias here is amazing. lisa: we are in unprecedented times

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television come across this nation, we will look away from the politics in this hour. david westin will fill us in later this morning. it is about the markets, about a fed meeting. join us this afternoon. we will be doing that on radio, on tv. the markets higher. jonathan: all-time highs on the equity market. there is one thing we have not discussed all morning, chairman powell's future. i think we need to talk about it. a little later today, when he talks about the years to come and policy at the federal reserve, for the strategy to be credible, you've got to know who's executing it. right now, we don't know. tom: published moments ago by douglas kass, doug kass channels chuck prince from another time and place. at some point, the disruptive event will be so significant that instead of liquidity filling in, the liquidity of 2021 will go the other way. i don't think we are at this point in 2007. that is the sum of all our fears. jonathan: do y

i'm lisa abramowicz, alongside kailey leinz and anna edwards in london. tom ferro, john keene -- john -- jon ferro, tom keene both off. what we are looking at this morning is a market in turmoil, reassessing all of the rate hike expectations, reassessing the reopening trade with the stay-at-home trades surging. everything else absolutely collapsing in the face of a new potential variant that could be more contagious. i am struck frankly by the shift in rate hike expectations at the federal reserve. kailey: a quick shift when we have been pulling over expectations of when the fed was going to lift off. we were looking at june of next year, now the market has pushed that further into 2022. it is a quick and stark reversal. i also have to wonder, it is just fresh off the thanksgiving holiday. a lot of people are probably off of work today. could this be a thinner liquidity kind of situation, or will we see elevated volumes? lisa: people are scrambling back to work. over in europe, this is the issue as we see immediate reaction in the travel sector. anna: the

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." your equity market up on the s&p 500. seven days of gains. lisa: it comes on the back of good data with respect to the market. the market getting to lofty places and fueled by low rates that went lower. that is the big mystery. jonathan: what did you make of that? lisa: it doesn't make sense to me. what i read and a lot of the notes doesn't make sense to a lot of people and they blame technicals. i wonder if it is technical underpinning or people looking past people hearing something way more dovish from jerome powell than i did. jonathan: lisa will go through the fed speak for us. barry into the news flow friday pfizer coming out with something that could be a game changer. matt: i was talking about this story all weekend long. they came out with a pill that reduces hospitalizations and deaths by 89%. that is in the high risk unvaccinated cases. if this works, it is a

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 11 on the s&p, advancing 0.25%. the outlooks starting to pour out for 2022, and they feature, many of them, interest rate hikes. tom:

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. the record run continues in this equity market. futures advancing .2%. all-time highs on payrolls friday. tom: what does the stock market say about the american economy? alan greenspan would say the equity market boats every minute every day. look at the division on the 8:30 report. stephen stanley of amherst pierpont, they are far apart. jonathan: what does that tell you that we have a range of 700,000 at the top end and 250,000 at the bottom? that spread is still incredibly wide. tom: we will go to the former governor of the fed. this is not in the textbook he to teach in chicago. jonathan: 450,000 is the number we are looking for. equity futures up 10 on the s&p 500, advancing .2%. into the bond market yields are unchanged at 1.5211. can we talk about the front end of the curve in the u.k.? what communication mess for the bank of england. i thought francine lacqua's interview with the governor was fantastic, really pushing him on whether it was down to them talking too much through

i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: let's begin with the big issue. covid returning to the forefront. >> entering a bit of a risk off day. >> unwelcome news. >> could not have come in a worse time. >> the back of thanksgiving. >> it make sense for investors to take risk off the table. >>

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting you ready for 2022. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the year-end outlooks poor in. tom: i have never seen it like this. the deep visions we see not only at versus other houses, but just the disparity of the call of, finance, investment, we have never seen this before. jonathan: are you finding it hard to identify a consensus view? tom: yes. where it is is exactly that. there is no consensus. there will be a mathematical consensus. nobody does it better than bloomberg, but the consensus is the sum of parts of huge idiosyncratic belief. jonathan: interested to see morgan stanley go with q1 2023 for that first fed hike. . lisa: i would say the consensus is i have not heard one call for recession, not one call for

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. your equity market up 19. it is unbelievable. nothing seems to stick on this equity market. lisa: especially considering the fact that all the narratives the people said could puncture the equity market have been there. you have seen supply chain issues, inflationary pressures get worse. yet stocks keep rolling along. why? jonathan: the rba, the federal reserve, the bank of england -- a ton of central bank decisions. lisa: they are going to announce tapering. the question is whether they start november, december and whether they push back against rate hike expectations. jonathan: will we get sufficient pushback to the rate hikes christ into the front end of this yield curve? kailey: we saw that christine lagarde ab gave a weak attempt at pushing back. we understand that she was advised not to do that. do that would be a we move at this meeting? i was talking to steen jakobsen early this morning. he sa

lisa abramowicz, tom keene, kailey leinz in for jon ferro. it is not normal this time. it is a huge deal. lisa: especially because it hits all the main points the fed is looking at. it is looking at the potential for full employment and how hot the market is for jobs, and also looking at inflation, the core pce deflator, the key inflation a metric the federal reserve looks at. it is expected to rise 5.1% year-over-year, most going back to 1990. tom: what we have is a quiescent bond market. yields are higher, and then they come in the last couple of days. lisa: basically, people bringing forward excitations for rate hikes. this means on the longer-term level, and place in bond yields not expected to rise as much. one of the key interesting debates right now on wall street is what is the bigger risk, the fed moving too quickly or tightening too quickly in their term and suppressing the long-term rates, or not moving quickly enough, and then the tenure becomes a lot less moor ed? tom: also unmoored, nasdaq 100 to the moon this year. we are focused on the equity market the

lisa abramowicz and tom keene with a very important conversation. this is the hallmark of barry ritholtz. he is a piÑata for a lot of people on social. he always backs his statements with adult academic research. barry ritholtz goes back to someone we lost far too young. i remember in 1980 the sudden death of arthur okin of yale university. it was a shocking loss. tell us what arthur okin invented to put us out of our misery. barry: took couple of things. he is known for okin's law, the relationship between employment and gdp, but his big contribution to the current day and age is the misery index. take unemployment and at inflation and it gives you a state of how bad the economy is for the average person sitting around trying to buy goods and earn a living. tom: p did this in the 1970's and i love the fret -- he did this in the 1970's and i can assure you the 1970's was dismal in so many regards. you are pushing back against the doom clue -- the doom crew calling this the dismal 20 20's. barry: the stagflation phrase keeps getting trotted out. if

jonathan ferro off this week, lisa abramowicz with us and kailey leinz as well. before we get to adam parker, i want to look at the data. oil coming in away from the $80 level. stronger dollar, inmate dxy, bloomberg dollar index, huge dynamics in europe of the protests we saw this weekend. not surprisingly swiss strength. lisa: the idea that the euro is the weakest going back to 2015. the weakest versus the dollar going back to the summer. this comes from the lockdowns and protests kaylee was talking about. austria entering lockdown, 64% of the population fully vaccinated, germany 69% fully vaccinated. in the united states, if the 8% paid white -- 58%. why are the lockdowns not the popular sentiment in the united states. tom: on the euro swiss chart, this is when i met young jonathan ferro, the collapse you see of swiss franc and then coming back with weakness. new strength over the last three or four years is really stunning to see swiss franc go to 103, 10 two would be earthshaking for global wall street cash 102 -- 102 would be earthshaking for global wall str

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. the federal reserve yesterday, there was no dissent. at the bank of england, not a surprise, there is dissent. jonathan: no change on monetary policy, if we can get my microphone activated. 7-2, the vote on interest rates. two dissents. they leave interest rates unchanged. on asset purchases, also some dissent on that. some voting to and asset purchases, but things unchanged. tom: i know you are going to bring in our expert on this from london to -- from london, guy johnson, but guy, bond -- [laughter] jonathan: can we start this again? tom: good morning on radio and television. what is so important here is beneath the surface, we would get more visibility today from governor bailey? jonathan: the guidance is coming from the bank of england that the rate will have to rise over the coming months to meet the target, so what you've got is some dissent in the early part of this conversation, but ultimately they are setting us up for a rate hike at the bank of

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market a little softer, -15 on the s&p, down 0.3%. the data 90 minutes away. tom: equities finally reacting to what we see on fixed income.

lisa abramowicz, that is a primal scream this morning. just do something. lisa: just do something when it comes to either building bridges and roads, but also with respect to inflation. i do wonder the messaging from the white house, how much there is an attempt to cast blame on the federal reserve for some of these issues versus trying to figure out how they can affect the supply chain disruptions. how did they message this going into 2022? tom: what you don't know on radio and tv is jon and i can go back and forth in my ear, and jon is whispering to me, "ask her about the auctions." [laughter] what was the messaging of the failed 30 year bond auction yesterday? lisa: that we don't have accurate understanding of why the long-term bonds are priced the way that they are. that the market has not understood the dynamics there, and there is a lot of disagreement. that to me is a pretty remarkable take away given that this was considered the risk-free asset. it is volatility. implied volatility in bonds is the highest it has been in more than a year, since the h

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing zero point 1%. we keep waiting. tom: it is almost like waiting for a new yankees manager. we are waiting, and what is fascinating here, get out the calendar, you were right week ago. this is coming very late, and they are going to have to explain why that is. when we get the announcement, the explanation around it will be interesting. jonathan: looking forward to the announcement on the next chair. maybe it is this chair. one thing i can guarantee, more outlooks for the s&p 500. they point out profit growth is accounting for the entire profit growth. tom: we heard from credit suisse. a little bit of margin compression. the outlooks are fascinating. what i would say is i am really going to pay attention to the consistent bulls because they have been right for three years. i want to hear them re-justify forward. jonathan: goldman one of those consistent bulls. the difference between morgan stanley at 4400 next year year end, and goldman s

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: record highs into tuesday. we are doing it again. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and reese abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equity futures pretty flat this morning. a three day rally and a three day rally and i record high to start this morning. tom: absolutely phenomenal. the interest is rolling over, $120 oil front and center. it is about the equity markets and the linkage into the dynamics in the fixed income space. jonathan: it is about fixed income decisions. the bank of england, the federal reserve very much in front of us. tom: the federal reserve will be the one that matters. i agree. it is a sum total effort. what do you do about the word that says september, which is transitory? nothing is transitory this november. jonathan: the big question, lisa, what comes next. lisa: it is not a question of when the fed lifts off, but how many rate hikes will be in the cycle. new surveys are getting more aggressive with how many rate hikes t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. into tuesday, it is an eight-day winning streak. tom: can we say that this morning, we are on the edge

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up seven, a little more than 0.1%. for all the anxiety around the fed, all-time highs in this equity market. tom: we made substantial for the progress yesterday to a great bull market. it was led by the small caps and the nasdaq. the idea here of growthiness, of economic growth being a more confident outcome in 2022. jonathan: the fed chair is holding your hand. the very fact they have reduced qe and we are hardly talking about it is mission accomplished. tom: and as we mentioned, it is about the marginal change. i did the quick math. so did everyone else. these are marginal tweaks here to do the taper and then to reset the rate debate which is tangible to december 15. jonathan: here's the pushback from steve englander of standard chartered. the t word. lisa: he is saying transitory. i have been banned from saying it. i think they did have interesting language that was touting the t word in some nuance, and the idea they are trying to move away from that. to this po

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a simulcast, and a critical time for the nation. we just heard from william dudley, former new york fed president. jeff lacker coming up in 30 minutes from richmond. they don't have a clue the trajectory of this economy. jonathan: let's be honest about it. it has been broader, stickier, higher than they expected, and they are not changing their mind on that. president kashkari i think encapsulates that conversation. but no, we are not changing our views. tom: let's set up the conversation here in minutes. we will have gene tannuzzo join us. he looks for a higher terminal value. i believe we heard that from bill dudley, codified a little bit by his public service. jan hatzius goes totally the other way. jonathan: morgan stanley are with them. they think the federal reserve waits. there's a disconnect for me. it is not my particular view. it is just a disconnect between the people who say the fed is behind the curve, but subsequent t

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. going into jobs, the jobs are part 42 minutes -- report 42 minutes away. peloton getting absolutely crushed in the premarket. five months ago they were predicting 5.4 billion dollars for the -- $5.4 billion for the year. now they have reduced their forecast by $1 billion. tom: they are like a trophy. jonathan: there are a lot out there that just said there. you polish it. tom: david wilson is with us. david wilson and i are on the same page. i just sent out an unsophisticated chart. it is shockingly elegant. if i was teaching a class on math, this is what i would use. >> that is why when chris put out a version of this chart, it jumped out at me. it is not just that you sought the russell 2000 hit a record. it is not just of the index moving to records. you see it with stocks in the russell as well. on wednesday when we got a new high, 40% of the companies in the index were at 20 day highs. it is a way to see in the sure run -- tom: -- the short run -- tom: the momentum. >> exactly. t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. ferro off. we had to beg kailey leinz to come in. we are thrilled she could join us this morning. so many stories this morning centered on the president. does he pardon the beast? have the turkeys already been pardoned? lisa: have you seen the pictures of the turkeys that are going to be pardoned on a hotel bed? tom: we are going to move on from that. we will move onto the dovetail of markets into the global response of pandemic, now pushing 20 months old. angela merkel, she move zero -- she moves euro. lisa: she says there will probably be restrictions necessary to curve the wave. i am suppressed markets aren't moving more. we were seeing the euro respond, but pretty much everything else shrugging it off area remember when people would worry about the idea that perhaps we would see a third, fourth, fifth wave? that is not what we are seeing in markets right now. tom: what we see is recalibration to a new

lisa abramowicz on television. i'll be on radio with paul sweeney. critically for me, the 30 year bond 2.00%. a nuanced day in the fixed income market. the real yield from a negative 1.10 over the last number of days to a -.98%. look for jon ferro friday on "the real yield." looking forward to that. on euro, 1.1252. leaving you with lira, 12.50 on turkish lira. coming up at 12:00, richard haass with david westin. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. lisa: 30 minutes until the start of trading, a softer tone as people reasse

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we do economics, finance investment, virology, and we will do it in this hour. peter hotez will join us in a bit. we will have science questions before we get to the president of the united states at 11:45 this morning. we are all on the virology watch. jonathan: and i think we need to get away from layering speculation on top of speculation here. as jan hatzius of goldman put it, and i keep going back to that research note, the range of medical outcomes and economic outcomes is incredibly wide. it is our job to sit here and say we've got to wait before you draw any conclusions whatsoever. tom: we will take a measured response to what we see here. we are on measured alert. the measured alert to me is we really haven't seen adjustments by strategists off the shock of front-end. jonathan: and they can't before we know a couple of things. if this is more easily transmitted to other people. is it more severe? are the s

alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro here with lisa abramowicz. it is yesterday in reverse. tom: up and down. looking at resistance and -- frankly, i know you have been looking at this. the 10 year yield is extraordinary, from up to down, 1.70, to 1.47, back to 1.70. jonathan: you talked about the volatility of the 10 year pay let's talk about the two year yield, which has moved in a straight line friday, monday, tuesday. that tells you about the rate hike debate. tom: let's open this up. has the right height -- rate hike debate disappeared? jonathan: it has shifted in the last couple of days. tom: oil is its own sub story as well. what we need to do, and we have felt this way 20 months -- we will talk science, not guessing, about omicron. it is what it is, and they're so much we and the president of the united states do not know. jonathan: there are so many things. -- a lot of people pointing to that interview. can i read a couple lines? there is no world where i think effectiveness will be the same level. i think there will be immaterial drop. we just do not know how much.