youngkin just about 45%. so again, he's up by a be few points from where we thought he would need to be in order to win across the state. a lot of questions here about what is happening in fairfax. they seem to have sped up their counting. a good sign there. the population rank is 1 out of 133 counties in cities with 57.5% of the vote. mcauliffe expected to do well here. we had in fairfax, we had youngkin on a floor of 34%. so he's right at that number right now. again, you have about 42, 43% of the vote still to be counted. he could still get there. we'll see as we move throughout the evening. two big bellwethers. a deep dive on this. our research team was doing this all weekend, sean. he found that there's two counties in the state of virginia picked the winner correctly for 40 years. ready, sean? want a quiz game here? >> sean: ready. go. >> this is northampton. at the moment, you have a lead for youngkin. you have about 13% of the vote out. right now northampton, if youngkin were to win, they would -- the

so again, you would expect youngkin -- youngkin. you'd expect mcauliffe to be making up a significant amount of ground here. but again, even when you give mcauliffe, i was just running the numbers here, when you give mcauliffe biden levels of support with the absentee vote that we know to be out in places like chesapeake, virginia beach, chesterfield county south of richmond, if you just say hey, he's going to get the same number joe biden did, which would be very good for terry mcauliffe with that absentee vote, even when you do that he's still not making up 184,000 votes. there's still a significant gap there, about 50,000 or so for youngkin. there are also still some republican-friendly areas of the state that are also still reporting vote. so opportunities still exist for youngkin to build on his lead as well. so again, waiting to see these big chunks come in here, but they'd have to be massively big and kind of out of whack with what we've been seeing elsewhere in the state tonight for mcauliffe to have a shot here. so mcauliff

youngkin 55,000. you ever going to to have at least 200,000 raw votes, i believe in loudoun county before the night is over. so you might be halfway. but depending on turnout we may have a little bit more to go. 53%. 46.7. it would seem right now, bret and martha, that youngkin is holding his own in loudoun county. when it comes to try to get the percentage down for what youngkin needs in order to win the statewide, so yeah we are keeping an eye on that. again, i think you have got probably 50% of the vote that is still outstanding there in loudoun county. you want another place? this is interesting right here. this is montgomery county in the southwest. this is blackburg, virginia. that's where you find virginia tech. you look at these areas right now and try to figure out, you know, with the democratic vote how it's going? it's very early here. mcauliffe only a couple hundred votes and youngkin at 565. a ways to go, still. >> martha: bill, take a luge at richmond again? >> bill: richmond city not to

youngkin. early. as fast as i could. >> why the school debate helped motivate people to vote red in this blue state. >> what are the number one issues for you? >> education. >> education. >> education. >> was it really a referendum on the biden agenda? >>> plus day of the dead. the mexican celebration of lives past, bringing comfort to those left behind. >> day of the dead, what does it mean to you? >> an opportunity that we set aside from all the drama in the world to have a moment to rekindle our loved ones' memories. >> and healing in an age of pandemic. o man, that's a whole lot of wrinkly at least my shoes look good! looking good start with bounce wrinkleguard, the megasheet designed to prevent wrinkles in the dryer. hey at&t customers... there's never been a better time to switch to xfinity. get the fast and reliable internet you deserve, for only $19.99 a month for 12 months. and, for the first time ever, we'll give you 12 times the speed for the same price when you add xfinity mobile. t

chesterfield, youngkin hung on. needed 51% of the vote in the suburban county south of richmond and pulled the trick to get it done there. what is so impressive what youngkin did in southwest virginia. come along in the rural counties and watch the percentage. they are through the roof as you kick through these counties in rural west virginia. most of them well above 80% as you see on the map here and that's the reason why youngkin was able to put this together and win in virginia. got the report in from new jersey. don't know which way it will go. maybe we're looking at a recount. we'll see. we heard the report from new jersey. there is still some votes to be had here. they could be in some of these suburban area. you come up here to union county, more suburbs. maybe murphy hangs on. we'll see. s ex is newark, a strong democratic area of the state. watch this now. ciattarelli has done better than anyone expected. before this thing did you think this would be razor tight? >> dana: i didn't. we should have been payin

they both advantage youngkin. how close is your sense of where things are going to come in tonight when the vote starts coming in? >> i would caution against reading way too much into these because again, this is the economy clocking in as the most important issue. youngkin is slightly outpacing mcauliffe. as you can see again, 43/40. this is not like a monster margin on this for youngkin. again, i think we're seeing a very divided electorate here. it's pointing me, again, this sounds like a terrible thing to say but i just want to see the results at 7:00 because, again, we can talk in the exit polls and say hey, i think, but to me, the greatest utility for this exit poll, too, could potentially come as a complement to the results that come in. because if we do start to see massive erosion for democrats in a louden county, in the suburbs of washington, d.c., in the suburbs of richmond, the exit poll can start to point us to an explanation. but using the exit poll as a compass to say, ah, this is what we're going t

it says glenn youngkin because we watched terry mcauliffe try to attach glenn youngkin to donald trump. he's worked hard to do that. glenn youngkin has created a new template for republican candidates running in competitive races in the trump era. steer clear of criticizing him or steer clear of running next to him or a knock off. mcauliffe suggested to say out loud that trump and youngkin were campaigning together in virginia last night, which is just a lie. they weren't. how does he get away with that? >> this is an interesting sort of pivot point for democrats. while there was a telerally that former president trump did yesterday, i think for democrats, they're going to have to figure out how they tell a better story. where we sit today in loudoun county. the argument is around critical race theory. 87% of the people here are caucasian. the idea that caucasian educators are telling students that oppression is happening is a farce to me. >> martha: of course they are. doesn't matter color. many white teachers in favor of teaching what i would call reformist history. maybe not crt by

glenn youngkin. and let's go to youngkin's head quarter, and eva, he closed strong, but did he close strongly enough? >> well, his campaign certainly seems to think so. all afternoon, i have seen the campaign staff, jake, and they have a little pep in the step. they are feeling really good, and lots of momentum. they say they have seen people turn out in chesterfield, and republican areas of loudoun as well as fairfax, so that is making them feel good about this race. when you are thinking of where glenn youngkin was a year ago, nobody knew him, a former private equity co-ceo, and now statewide recognition and so that is what they are talking about. the fact that this unknown figure could be running neck and neck with the former governor of virginia, and all of that having them feel pretty good. >> eva mccann, thank you. and now, we go to pamela at the voting desk, and what are you looking for in virginia? >> well, turnout is key, and virginia has on of the longest voting periods in the country after

youngkin was right. this is a common-sense movement run by normal, average people who want a better life for themselves and their families. we love this country. a country which is not systematically racist, by the way. and we're sick of seeing people cancelled or threatened or intimidated or shamed for speaking their minds or saying no to a vaccine. and, by the looks of things on the other networks, they're taking all the wrong lessons from this i say ra. i think that the real ominous thing is that critical race theory, which isn't real, turned the suburbs 15 points to the trump insurrection-endorsed republican. >> we've seen the emergence of the delta variant of trumpism. the delta variant of trumpism. in other words, youngkin, same disease, but spreads a lot faster. it can get a lot more places. >> laura: remember when van jones was the big uniter who reached across the aisle? that's out the window. last year democrats had so many forces going their way, the covid panic, the blm hysteria, the vicious

youngkin camp. now southeastern virginia, haven't checked in for a while. this is virginia beach. it is interesting to watch. let's come back to the governor's race here currently. youngkin is 58%, tucker, with half of the vote in. we had youngkin at a floor of 52% in order to do very well across the state. he's already up by six points on the floor with half of the vote and appear this is north folk, n vote. joe biden one this district was 71% to 72% of the vote with less than half 41% and terry mcauliffe underperforming, underperforming joe biden a percentage level. so we will keep an eye on this and youngkin's numbers below. what is happening in chesterfield, we just had a big dump in chesterfield of votes coming in 85%. youngkin is holding on 55%. why is that critical? we believe his floor would have been 51%. so you have got 50% of the vote outstanding and youngkin is hanging on a significant way in chesterfield. suburbs of richmond critical to win the state throughout the commonwealth of virgi

glenn youngkin has the momentum in this race. clearly independents are going to youngkin. he has got the enthusiasm, the messaging seems to be flowing youngkin's way on education, on taxes, on all of the things that are being debated right now. glenn has that momentum and now he has the late money rush, too. so when you have the message. you have got the momentum. you have got the money. by the way, on this turnout issue for tomorrow, 55% is not a huge number for republicans. donald trump got over 60% of the vote on election day. much different, much different because a lot of people voted early. i get it but things do look pretty good for glenn youngkin. but cautiously optimistic. rnc chairwoman has done a great job. i think it's going to be very, very, very close. >> bret: you know, mo, obviously this election, like others, we'll see a lot of mail-in ballots. the early vote is a big deal here. and you're over 20% of the commonwealth already voting early. where do you see ground zero here as you head into tomorrow? >> yeah, and i think i would agree with just about everyt

president obama owens, what youngkin did, was he focused on the local folks. he made sure he had an excused to keep trump out of the. racing keep trump from physically coming and trying to get on stage with him, he kept almost everyone out of the. race all national politicians, and i think that is something that people were focused on, they were seeing in saying, okay he's talking about our economy, he's talking about her education, again i think as everyone said and we should say over and over. critical race theory is not being taught in schools, and that's something he talks about a lot. what he did not talk about today was critical race theory. when he went through the mantra of things that he was going to do for the schools, critical race theory was not there. >> he talked about buildings and elect kind of stuff. >> he talks about critical race theory we need to activate a base of voters to come, out you talk about education we need to talk to a whole state. folks, standby for a second. i'm going to take a quick break, just for those of you have joined, us

the economy, glenn youngkin glenn youngkin singh that in his acceptance speech when he talked about the grocery tax, the different tax proposals he wants to an out on day one. that smart policy. that's what he was talking about in those commercials. certainly this is a wake-up call to all of us that the economy will be the most critical issue heading into 2022 and we've got to be focus on that as we tackle the covid crisis, solve that crisis, put it back to about how to make the economy work for every economy coming out of this pandemic. >> i want to get a very quick comment from you, the infrastructure plan, what happens to them on capitol hill now? >> if they couldn't get past before, you didn't even see on your list climate change, it's about economy. democrats just want to raise your taxes. i do not see how that's a winning message on the economy. >> thank you all. we'll see you again soon as these issues are far from over and there's much more to do. thank you for being with us tonight. so tonight in virginia, the republican has come back from basically nowhere. first time politici

butters began to like youngkin early. -- motors began to like youngkin early. >> he is not at this likable person. -- not a disk likable person. >> not just the ones i can do -- but also can come across as concerned, committed, engaged, good listeners. have a plan or two that can be put out there. most important, the liked. the narrative about republicans of the trump era was that people did not like republicans. what youngkin -- if there's a playbook, plan, i don't think there's an absolute playbook, this election is not going to be what you're going to see in 2022 because of this one factor, the kind of candidate is youngkin is versus the kind of candidates already lining up in the number of gop primaries around the country that are much more trump y, much more in bed with him and his style of politics. those candidates are going to have trouble finding voters to like him, especially in swing states. rex is you were doing the campaigning, -- as you work during the recruiting -- >> it is not too late. the primary season is just starting and many wrist bait -- in many respects. seeds of op

glenn youngkin is projected winner after defeating former democratic governor terry mcauliffe. we are joined by gop strategist matt gorman a democrat strategist, former obama campaign communications advisor and author of patriot 2 nation. i want to start with you, spencer. we've been talking about this, is this wake-up call and how will this change the strategy moving into 2022? >> it certainly should be and i am a little bit worried that democrats might take long lessons from this. i often say democrats are really good at policy is not very good at politics and i also say your enemy is not your enemy, your enemy is your teacher, republicans keep giving democrats free lessons and now to do politics, without making everything about the details of policy and democrats seem not to be learning that lesson. that's not true of all of them. we have great exceptions like a rock obama, bill clinton, president biden leads from the head and hard but in general democrats tend to be stuck in their head and want to argue over should we be farther left, more to the middle and that's a pleasan

not this time, 71% youngkin. terry mcauliffe was strong on the coronavirus but it wasn't enough to get his old job back. youngkin, he won it with an economic message but also with an education message, resonating with parents, especially in places like the richmond suburbs. this is a big turnaround in the state of virginia, first republican to win statewide in 12 years. the outgoing governor won by 9 points four years ago. this morning it's a republican and glenn youngkin set to be the next governor. back to you. maria: yeah. and this was all that the democrats were focused on this weekend, connell, because they are worried this is going to portend for news in 2022 and potentially 2024. connell, we'll get back to you as more news develops. thank you so much, on the ground in virginia this morning. i am here this morning with dagen mcdowell and tammy bruce and dagen, it wasn't just schools, although that was the probably most important issue that leaned for glenn youngkin but it was also as you mentioned the groce

just more than half mcauliffe's attacks on youngkin unfair. for youngkin that number is 43%. meaning a majority thinks his campaign was fair. while mcauliffe. held none with donald trump and didn't talk about him very much. 48% of virginia voters think that youngkin supports the former president trump too much. but, keep in mind, some of those people who felt that way say they still voted for him. as for mcauliffe say he is too close to biden. the majority says he gist the president the right amount of support hot button issue. youngkin planned to ban the teaching of critical race theory on first day of office and against school mask mandates. mcauliffe denies that critical race theory is even being taught in virginia answered supports mandating masks for schools. so, how do virginia voters feel? the largest percentage of them, 27% say the debate over how to handle things like vaccines and masks, coronavirus in schools was the single most important factor in their vote for almost as many it is critical race theory, about 25%. and one last tid bit, while some people have known

you're a supporter of glenn youngkin, though you haven't been for trump lately. >> a youngkin/mcauliffe supporter. glenn grew up there so he had much stronger support than republicans traditionally. what i'm seeing is suburban republicans, both men and women, are kind of coming back to it's safe to vote republican again with glenn. how much is that going to be? i'm feeling good because this is a candidate who, from my standpoint, is somebody who does not support donald trump and doesn't see him on the ticket. i want to see someone turn the page -- >> it isn't turning the page talking about critical race theory which isn't even taught in schools. >> terry making that mistake and saying parents shouldn't be involved, this suburb has schools where the parents are very active. they are spending a lot on their homes to have these great school systems. if my dad had said parents can't say anything about education, i think that probably hurt him. i think glenn youngkin can thank the progressives in congress for blowing this up. you've seen terry mcauliffe very unhappy. >> it is education that'

donald trump wants to stick himself to youngkin in youngkin tried to bob and weave around donald trump. >> look in new jersey to. where a tremendous number of people voted for ciattarelli and nobody was expecting. they are people who did not blame a republican candidate for all of their unhappiness with donald trump. who lost the state by 16 points. i want to throw something on the table here, for consideration that isn't fully formed yet, but we might have seen tonight, as disasters it was for the democrats, the beginning of post trump politics. so when republicans analyze these returns, and they see that their candidates were running 15 16 points ahead of trump, in 2020, a lot of them have to ask themselves, do we really want to nominate this guy in 2022? do we really want to lose all these games that we've gotten. right now they're 16 states that have open primaries, where the trump stirs won't necessarily dominate the presidential primaries. because independent voters, democrats and republicans who hate, trump can go in that primary, so if that number is expanded, or if we see some

and at the same time, hearing youngkin say, and hearing other people say, that youngkin does not want him to come to the state and doesn't ever want to be pictured next to him. this is unusual behavior for donald trump and maybe after the election we can find out what's secret sauce youngkin has used, because no doubt a lot of republicans will want to buy some of that secret sauce next year. >> ashley parker, over to you. on think all of journalism pause to tour tip their hats to the staff of the washington post when the story dropped on the one six red flags. it's kind of impossible to explain to a civilian audience just how much work goes into a piece of that length. again, a book length examination of it from start to finish. though some would argue, the finish is a chapter yet to be written. explain to our audiences, especially the people who have not had the chance or inclination to read it as of yet, what we learned about the former president and what he was doing or more importantly, not doing during the siege of the capital. >> so, just to give you a little more background bef

glenn youngkin, is a private equity barren. in a vest. he talks about economic issues, and when he pushes talking points that are meant to flirt with and stoke backlash, he does so in a coated, way with dog whistles on education, i think that kind of coated top is intended to appeal to, it's bad obviously, but there is no denying it's successful and it's been successful for decades. dating back to richard nixon, talk about law and order, and ronald reagan speech on welfare, and states rights, in mississippi. that's different, appreciably. then the much more explicit racism that we saw from republican candidates under donald trump's leadership, like this guy name cory, stewart also in virginia, he narrowly lost the republican primary for governor in 2017, and was the republican candidate for senate in 2018, he ran statewide, openly flirted with all right talking, points removing the flag from virginia was quote, losing its identity, that was not glenn youngkin's campaign, glenn youngkin very much tried and successfully achieved having it b

he is out of the youngkin mold. i thought it was luck though that donald trump didn't have some kind of intemperate tantrum and try to insert himself. >> he did. >> they kept saying he was going to have this town hall, invitation only. if a tree falls, did it really happen? >> but that links to a very very interesting point about trump. a number of people have used, isn't odd he hasn't come out and slammed youngkin, particularly when youngkin was denying him publicly? youngkin played the judas role perfectly. he just rolled the sap suckers up into one character. and trump was ok with that. i think i know why. for trump, he can suffer those outrageous assault on his person because it begot the win, in aw. after joe biden got elected against donald trump, the biggest difference in his when versus hillary clinton's david in 2016 was joe biden outperformed hillary clinton among two groups that overlap, independents and moderates, by 12 points. that is the difference between winning and losing the presidency. democrats,

youngkin, i have not met governor-elect youngkin personally. i know of him, we have a lot of mutual friends, and he is that guy in many respects that we saw in this campaign. he is a family man, a businessman. he's very approachable. and i think you're going to see that on the back end of it. now, you can have policy debates, but what you're looking at strategically is how he approached the election. >> right. >> given that he was not a trump guy. >> that's the question, though. the question for me is can you -- here's the thing that i want republican strategists to realize, which i think is true. you don't need trump. those people are going to crawl over broken glass to vote against the democrats now, trump or no trump. because you already have them, you don't need him. you're better off without him. i wonder how much republican strategists get that message from this? >> i lot more than one may think and certainly a lot more than you may hear in a public square coming on a program like this to talk about it. it is -- it is -- as we've seen wit

but glenn youngkin. i saw ross the from the new york times a conservative columnist, i assume tongue and cheek tweeted, youngkin 2024. but i mean, it's a little early and ross is cheeky, let us say. the point is, this is a map for conservative policies winning over suburban voters, the democrats have lost. not sweeping, but winning over enough of them, keeping the trump voters and delivering the state that hillary clinton won. >> right. and if it keeps up. he gets a chance to governor and we see who does the governing model. the other key point i make, republicans will study this. how did he manage to thread the needle in wherever, the post trump era a. trump is not in office anymore. >> democrats are going to say, terry mcauliffe thought joe biden won by saying you know me. i've been there, i can do this. >> it did not work. a year later it did not work to go to a familiar name and a guy that was in power before. democrat-s will think about it. why are we looking at it, 85,000 votes. 95%. well, we just

youngkin: how about that, huh? [applause] ♪ mr. youngkin: wow. [cheering and applause] [crowd chanting "glenn" ] mr. youngkin: thank you. wow. amazing. all right, virginia, we won this thing! [applause] how much fun, how much fun. first of all, thank you all for waiting, waiting a few minutes longer than we thought. breakfast will be served shortly. amazing. well, first, let me thank suzanne. let me thank suzanne. [applause] i had said many, many times that the lord knew what he was doing because i need her a lot more than she needs me. when i told you on that fateful friday afternoon that a conviction had come over my heart to go serve virginians, you did respond. you responded with grace. you responded with support. you responded with unconditional love. thank you. i also have to thank my amazing kids because i'm not sure they were all on board at the beginning. so, guys, i want to thank you. john, thank you, over in dublin. i love you guys. and i want to thank my beloved commonwealth of virginia. [applause] my fellow virginians. we stand here

youngkin likes charter schools. and so do voters after the failure of the public school system during the pandemic, they want charters. they want private. they want vawmps. todd: america built the modern democracy. stuart built american built mondays on 9 p.m. eastern. what is the take away message from your show, stuart. >> we further what america can do. what america did to create those -- to unite this confidence and edges near all the great marvels of our society. it was a can do society and that's what we report on. carley: give us some examples. >> the hubble telescope a strange thing to pick on. this is an engineering marvel which was almost a total failure until at the very last minute a last resort they did a space walk, tinkered around with it and it works. and it it's brilliant. carley: a positive message positive show on incredible day. todd: i'm sure you will be talking about the elections on day job 9:00 a.m. fox business. appreciate your time. thank you, see you tomorrow at 9:00. carley: thank you for

youngkin got 57%. that swing there is a lot of this issue that we're talking about because those are suburban mothers who have kids in schools, and they're worried about this issue. of course they're worried about gas prices. i spend a lot of time in virginia. it costs a lot of money. i spend -- a month ago, a neighbor of mine who had a biden sign switched to a youngkin sign. that was the moment i realized things are changing. >> i could see it. i was traveling across virginia the past few weeks, and i really saw it. john heilemann, now to you. democrats are facing hell and high water. what do you say? >> well, i mean, look, critical race theory exists. wokism exists. it's not caught in a virginia school. the youngkin campaign was asked about it a hundred times by reporters, and they couldn't come up with an example of a school in the state of virginia that taught crt as part of the curriculum. >> hold on. you understand -- >> i do. i do but -- >> political correctness, wokism -- >> i do. >> that's wha

and so, i think that, you know, glenn youngkin these voters think glenn youngkin has enthusiasm on their side. they were going to vote for mcauliffe but they were just kind of mad about the whole thing. >> i want to play some of what you heard from some of these folks. here it is. about joe biden. here it s. is. >> i don't like how biden is -- how much debt he wants to incur. i don't like what happened in afghanistan. >> biden hasn't stepped of up or hasn't appeared to have stepped up as i would have hoped somebody with 40 years in the senate could bring people together to do. >> so, there you go. what kind of impact is this biden -- is biden having on this virginia race? >> yeah. it's just brutal. i mean, i have done a number of democratic focus groups in a row now. doing them for weeks and i always ask people to give joe biden a letter grade. and he is getting a couple of bs, and mostly cs and ds. and one of the things people complain about the most -- i mean, obviously, they are concerned about inflation. they are still, you know, kind of feeling like covid's not under control. um, bu

glenn youngkin is with us. check to the rally will also join us, he is running in the great state of new jersey. but first come here with reaction for such a time as this, kayleigh mcenany along with fox news contributor lara trump. lara, we will begin with you. the one issue of energy alone i think -- and i've said this before, your father-in-law did not get enough credit for. keeping prices of production low. the cost of filling our tanks had never been lower. heating and cooling our homes had never been lower. that means the cost of transporting goods has never been lower. now everything is flipped and flopped, and it's never been higher. >> that's right. well, you heard joe biden happy to give out an apology earlier about the paris climate accord. he does owe quite a few apologies and he could probably start with the interview workers. remember about a year ago he lied to saying you are not going to have to worry about it, you're going to keep your jobs. what does he do? day one canceling the keystone xl pi

glenn youngkin ran a strong campaign. i think one of the key stories coming out of this evening will be the notion of biden and youngkin voters. folks that delivered the majority of congressional districts in virginia to the democrats in 2018, repudiated, trumpeted 2020, and most of those suburban counties as you've talked about throughout the night with bill on the wall and now flip back to glenn youngkin pro he spent $7 millio for example on a positive persuasion in support of his campaign before terry mc auliffe spent a dollar. he had really strong favorables and a lot of that exit polling that she has been talking about with these voters reaction to this. that was a really hard deficit, even though terry hammered home the idea that glenn was glenn was trumped, that wasn't necessarily the case in a lot o the mindsets of these voters as we are seeing this play out in the commonwealth. >> it was white women in virginia that was the biggest turn. biden one 50-49 over donald trump in 2020, and this race, white women, 57-43

to an asians for youngkin event. the republican party is desperate not to be a white tent party. they have long thought their message of economic conservative and social conservative could resonate with the latin's x community, and some could resonate with the asian community. i'm telling you, if youngkin wins and can bring more asians and people of color into the mix, again, this is going to be the formula that republicans try to duplicate in 2022. likewise, democrats are going to really have to rethink how much trump and the existential despair of the gop is truly going to motivate voters in a midterm election. >> so having worked alongside a lot of democratic candidates, what do you think of that argument? there's also the corollary that biden and mcauliffe, according to the exit polls, are under water, unfavorable, that's not a great thing, and we check this for our coverage tonight. obama was under water in 2013, as was mcauliffe, kornacki reminded us of that as well, when mcauliffe did eke out that victory. the

youngkin -- and there it is actually. in fact youngkin's lead jumping up 7,000 there. see if i can get you where that just came from. but we've been hovering in that 85,000 vote range with not a ton left to come. i think one of the most notable things to say big picture of what we're looking at in virginia is take a look at the total combined turnout in this race. youngkin now with that update we just got moving north of 1.6 million votes. million and a half there for mcauliffe. we're well over 3 million votes, 3.1 million votes. you know, when you were talking to democrats and republicans in the run-up to this virginia race, some were saying maybe this could get up to 3 million but i think is it 2.7? is it 2.8? so this is just absolutely enormous turnout for an off-year election in virginia. to put it in some context, in the trump-biden presidential race last year the total turnout was a 4.4 million in virginia. so this is running at more than 2/3 of the level of turnout that we saw for the presidential election last year in virginia. so just enormously high interest,

>> i think youngkin set up an interesting playbook for this. even in the primary, in some ways he was lucky, he was never going to be the trumpiest person -- >> but they had to rig a primary to keep a trumpiest person out of it. >> it was procedurally strange. >> that's another way of saying rig the system. >> but in this case, youngkin did not have to embrace trump with a bear hug. he would bring out surrogates like ted cruz to signal to the base that i'll be with you on the issues that matter to you, and this whole time mcauliffe has been trying to tie him to trump, all of the quotes he what are kind of weak. the ads where he's saying donald trump is one of the reasons i'm running. that's not the damming quote that i think the mcauliffe team wishes it was. >> that's a fair point. cornell and christian, we'll have a lot to talk over tonight. that's for sure. we will see both of you tonight on the "meet the press" election special. >>> if it's tuesday, it was also supposed to be one of the days that we saw a vote on one or both of the democrati

and i voted for glenn youngkin, because glenn youngkin actually did something that so many politicians and policy makers have done and this is honored parents. and right now i know i'm getting messages from oregon, to maine where parents are just so happy about this because they feel like they finally have been heard. and i want to just tell all of the momma bears and papa bears out there that can you do this in your school district. you can do this in your state. can you take it back. ainsley: i heard last night when he gave his victory speech he said i will listen to you. and yesterday in virginia, that's what asra and all the parents were telling me. we just feel like he listens to us. tell us what our country stands to be like. i know you came from communist china. i know you are worried about the direction of this country. but this has to give you some hope. >> yes. i think to win education is to win the war. the culture war against wokism. now youngkin as governor, we the parents are l. take back the education one school district at a time. i'm just so happy today is a great day

his opponent says youngkin is stoking culture wars. youngkin has also worked to pull off a pretty difficult balancing act, wooing trump voters while keeping the former president somewhat at arm's length. >> my view that parents have a fundamental right to make decisions about their kids' education. he's for government control. i'm for individual freedom and liberty and i'm for parents' rights with their kids. >> reporter: would you rally with donald trump if he came to virginia? >> well, he's not coming and in fact we're campaigning as virginians in virginia, with virginians. >> meantime mcauliffe's strategy has been equally clear, attempt to nationalize this race and tie youngkin has much as you can to donald trump. >> he's created hatred and division just like donald trump. and that's why donald trump, his final campaign is going to be for glenn youngkin here in virginia. we don't want trump, we don't want youngkin, we don't want the hatred and division. >> that brings us to the critical question. exactly whose strategy is working? o

youngkin was his own men. i give him credit for not giving into the idea that you've got to bring in trump or anyone else, frankly. >> ron, i have to go. ten seconds, seriously, to respond. i know you want to respond. >> yeah, look, i think the biggest question for democrats is going to be do they see the signs of the usual problem in midterms, which is their base is depressed, less eager to vote than the other side. also, how big a drag is joe biden in whether terry mcauliffe wins by to point or loses by a point, democrats have a shared interest, a kind of survival trl in rallying around the biden presidency and rebuild his approval rating. if it is at this level in a year, it is certainly going to be a tough night. >> thank you both. >>> i want to turn to political strategist sara long well, the publisher of the bulwark and host of the focus group podcast. hi, sara. good to see you again. >> hey, don, thanks for having me. >> so you recently spoke to a group of undecided independent voters in virginia. what

for glenn youngkin. that is how republicans have to start thinking how they win over voters who have an unfavorable view of donald trump even though he is a clear leader inside the party and still win them over as voters. joe biden clearly had a drag, not just in virginia, in new jersey, and clearly it's affecting the national political environment. look at his approval rating among virginia voters last night. 23% strongly approve, 21% somewhat approve. that's 46% approval. but look here, 8% somewhat disapproved. 46% strongly disapproved. so not only is he under water, 54% disapproval, but the intensity is on the side of those who disapproved of joe biden's job performance, ana. >> all interesting. thank you for those takeaways, david ychalian. he mentioned there were inflation problems and much more. i want to bring in chief correspondent christine romans, and christine, will there be any relief before the midterms? >> reporter: president biden acknowledging that inflation will be an unwanted guest at y

former president calling in to a telerally for youngkin tonight but youngkin didn't. he's been out on the trail all day not mentioning you know who. >> this race is neck and neck. we're coming up on the outside, passing. but we've got to get it done tomorrow. we've got to get it done. the entire nation is watching this. why? why? there's only two statewide elections this year, new jersey and virginia. and all eyes are on virginia. the nation needs us to vote for them too. >> as usual, you know, the former president is saying the quiet part out loud. and it's so easy to do. this is what everybody does because it's so easy. but he does it like, right? as a sport. saying that the news media and ads, quote, are trying to create an impression that glenn youngkin and i are at odds and don't like each other. importantly, this is not true. we get along very well together and strongly believe in many of the same policies. which is exactly what youngkin doesn't want voters to hear. and exactly what mcauliffe is hammering at every opportunity. >> i am running against i like to s

youngkin won by 12 percentage points. it's awfully difficult to lose a race in which you are trusted more on the top three issues according to voters. >> one quirkiness people in virginia think the >> coeconomy is good. if you think the economy is good with a democratic incumbent, to think the republican is better is interesting. i want to talk 2021 more -- sorry, i want to talk about 2022. what does virginia tell us as we look forward? >> you know, john, this was the graphic i showed you last week. party of the virginia governor, wins, gains house seats since 2007. 8 of 11 times. if you win the virginia governor's race, it's a pretty good bet you're going to gain house seats in the next midterm. we know democrats have such a small majority in the house. if you were betting based upon history the dynamic that held in virginia last night that helped glenn youngkin will hold to the next midterm, of course, we're still a year away so we'll have to wait and see on that. >> what about progressives, what's the takeaway there, h

donald trump wants to stick himself to youngkin. and youngkin tried to bob and weave around donald trump. >> yeah, look at new jersey, too, where a tremendous number of people voted for ciattarelli when nobody was expecting it. they are people who did not blame a republican candidate for all of their unhappiness with donald trump who lost the state by 16 points. so, i want to throw something on the table here for consideration that isn't, you know, fully formed yet. but what we might have seen tonight, as disastrous as it was for the democrats, the beginning of post-trump politics. you know, when republicans analyze these returns and they see that their candidates were running 15, 16 points ahead of trump in 2020, a lot of them have to ask themselves do we really want to nominate this guy in 2024? do we really want to lose all of these gains that we've gotten? right now, there are 16 states that have open primaries where the trumpsters won't necessarily dominate the presidential primaries. because independent voters and, you know, d

he thinks he has some reason to believe youngkin is his guy, and here's youngkin a few weeks ago endorsing an audit of the election results. >> we need to make sure people trust the voting machines. i grew up in a world where you have an audit every year, and in businesses you have an audit, let's just audit the voting machines, publish it so everybody can see it. >> just audit, trust, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. whether or not youngkin would overturn democracy in virginia, i don't know. in many ways that's an intentional strategy on his part. at least in temperament, the former ceo of the private equity giant, the carlyle group, not particularly trumpian, presenting himself as a harmless virginia dad in a vest. you see youngkin has rediscovered a tried and true political strategy which has weirdly dissipated in a post trump political order, stood in good stead, instead of giving into the worst instincts of his political base, youngkin traffics in sub texts and dog whistles, make the referendum on education. he doesn't mean school rankings or test scores or college preparedness or educationa

with the election of glenn youngkin? >> right now, i'm still trying to assess it, i will say that my focus, because i am the leader in the house, my focus has been on my candidates, but there has been, i watched the earlier segment, in the breakout. virginia, what's important to virginians. and of course our economy is important to virginians. we have a strong economy, as well as increasing our workers rights. at the same time education, i'm sure that there will be a deep freeze about what happened. and again, i'm sure the mcauliffe camp, we're still waiting for all the provisional ballots. they need to be canvassed and counted. >> obviously virginia is a big state, it's an important state. you have real local issues. and the tea leaf readers tonight, are all trying to figure out how much of this is about virginia, how much this is about youngkin in mcauliffe. and how much this is about biden and democrats at a larger level. our exit polling asked one question, one reason for your vote for governor today? to express oppo

that's what glenn youngkin did. he stressed a stempel message: if you've got kids in school, they're your kids so you should have a role in what they learn.i >> we're gonna embrace our parents, not ignore them. we're gonna press forward with t curriculum that includeswi listening to parents input, a curriculum that allows our children to run as fast as they can, teaching them how to think, enabling their dreams to soar. friends, we are going to reestablish excellence in our schools. [applause] >> so randy and the teacher's union doesn't personally own your children? crazy. that didn't work in the end. why didn't it work? hanson the senior developer and the person we think is best qualified to explain why it didn't work he joins us thank you very much. >> thank you. uh, tucker, have you noticed>> that donald trump is more popular now that probably at any time in his presidency and the more that terry mcauliffe said trump, trump, trump, and they were obsessed with him the more he looked pretty good and it helped young

glenn youngkin in smith county, the western part of the state, youngkin got 82% of the vote. mcauliffe, 16.9%. compare that to ralph northam four years ago, he got 22%. that's lousy. when you drop from 22% to even lower, there's something going on here. you can see the democrats are struggling, really struggling in these rural areas which is something that has to concern them nationally going forward, brianna. . >> yeah. you want to do lousy maybe in southside, in some of the rural areas. you don't want to say lousier. berman is getting his cardio in today walking over to the set. it is a sad day for cardio. sunlen serfaty has more. >> reporter: certainly a big win for republicans here in this commonwealth. glenn youngkin becoming the next commonwealth. notably the first republican to do so in 12 years. now, youngkin was successful in creating his own personal brand for himself, a brand very separate from donald trump, all the while making sure to not alienate trump voters, and attracting moderate voters into his side. now, he certainly was tapping into a lot of state and loc

for youngkin, and at the same time hearing youngkin say and hearing other people say that youngkin does not want him to come to the state and doesn't ever want to be pictured next to him. this is unusual behavior for donald trump. and maybe after the election we can find out what secret sauce youngkin can use, because no doubt a lot of republicans will want to buy some of that secret sauce. >> ashley parker, over to you. i think all of journalism paused to tip their hats to the staff of "the washington post" when the story dropped on the 1/6 red flags. it's kind of impossible to explain to a civilian audience just how much work goes into a piece of that length. again, a book length examination of it from start to finish. though some would argue the finish is a chapter yet to be written. explain to our audience, especially the people who have not had the time or inclination to read it as of yet, what we learned about the former president and what he was doing or more importantly not doing during the siege of the capitol. >> so just to give you a little more background before i get to tha

i spoke to the youngkin team this morning. they expect that the overall number will come in around 2.2 million in the state of virginia so you've got about 1.1 million people who would be out there on the road going to their local voting -- polling places and doing just that. just for comparison's sake, in 2020 for a presidential election you had 4.5 million in the turnout so the turnout is going to be very key. obviously for both of these candidates, and you heard terry mcauliffe trying to drum up the vote, bringing in some of those big union voices like randy weingarten. he's got tweets today from the siu unions saying they are coming out in full force because youngkin has done something that i think nobody anticipated even a month ago. this is really the big moment that's happened over just the past couple of weeks when you look at it but he's created a wedge issue in the blue sections of virginia, and he's done it over education. so you look at the suburban voters who were trump voters in 2016. biden voters in 2020, and, t

so, he wasn't as aggressive with the glenn youngkin. that's not going to be the case in other areas where there are swing states and swing races and swing districts within those states. >> david, i want to focus on one exit poll question as you kind of help all go through those throughout an election night. that i think we should focus on even today. and it's in virginia, of course. on the question of, as dana was talking about education and parents should have in curriculum. the numbers were huge. we'll put them up when anyone likes. that is huge, became hugely important and seemed to speak to more than someone talking about critical race theory, which wasn't taught in schools there. >> no doubt about that, kate. this was a very savvy strategy. so if you saw education as an overall issue rocket up to the football two place, just behind economy and jobs. a quarter of the electorate roughly said education was the most important in virginia last night, kate. here's what's more important. a majority of virginia voters said that parents sho