powell at the helmet -- dovish jay powell at the helm. do you take him by his word at this point? richard: we are talking about a slight bringing forward of the tapering. we are talking about the markets pricing in sort of two or three rate increases over the next 12-15 months. that still is more hawkish than what we might have expected may be a few months ago, but it still leaves monetary still pretty loose. it still leaves it pretty expansionary and leaves some scope for changes in those decisions if the evidence points in a different auction. as i say, some of that evidence might be heading in a slightly different direction. we will see. dani: interesting to get your thoughts. you're going to stick around with us. that is richard dunbar, head of multi-asset research at aberdeen . china plans to close a loophole allowing firms to ipo about. what does that mean for big firms like alibaba and bytedance? we will have more on that bloomberg scoop next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ dani: welcome back to the open. we are about 20 minutes into y

jay powell underscoring the strength in the u.s. economy. the handoff from wall street was reflected in asians shares, particularly the nikkei up or than 2%. here we remain up across the board. the benchmark up more than 1.4%. the dax gaining 250 points. the cac quarante, 1.4% gains. the ftse a little less, currently up 1%. steepness of the yield curve is worth focusing on the twos and the fives. let's switch to the sectors, you saw the nasdaq rally into the end of the session yesterday. technology is leading the gains, getting 3%. top of the list by far. bottom of the list is utilities, food and beverage. the risks around omicron and whether countries are complacent around the variant. individual stocks, airbus has secured a deal worth $4.6 billion with qantas. a boost, up 2.8% as they rushed to the end of the year to catch up with boeing. boohoo, a very different picture for this company, the online fashion retailer, down almost 11%, reducing guidance for the full year, saying returns have been higher than expected. margins will be squeeze

names like comcast or oracle and what is the gameplan away from jay powell. monday is a great example of what i'm talking about one of my favorite drug companies, regeneron will have an investor event where they'll s showcase a growing portfolio, including rna base therapies an gene editing i think the stock is worth owning, but it's a clarion call of what they have going. regeneron is a biotech name, but it's profitable. that makes this tangible, not co conceptual, because it trades in ear earnings, not sales. so if regeneron tells a great story, the stock will be rewarded if it were losing money, i would say pass i wouldn't even mention it in the game plan, but it's not. it's making money. it's making money hand over fist i said over and over again, we're living through the roaring '20s this is a booming economy and the vast majority of companies are doing well, except the ones that lack the ability to raise prices so one of these challenge companies is a company you know called campbell's soup, and it struggled with end sales growth, but they have an inves

yesterday, markets had a double whammy jay powell talking about a so-called faster pace of a taper. >> economy is strong and pressures are high it is appropriate to consider wrapping up the paper of our asset purchases which we announced at the november meeting, perhaps a few months sooner i suspect we'll discuss that at our upcoming meeting >> some on the street did note jay powell's new aggressive stance kind of coming out of the blue and very soon after the confirm operation to a return. the worst of the worst yesterday for oil. down still in a month coming into this morning. gol goldman sachs saying oil may be near a capitulation. in the meantime, we'll see a check of the early trade heading it to our friend in london juliana. >> your yan equity markets starting december on a high note as you can see here, the german,ity an yan and ftse market in france, the cac 40. the swiss market lagging a very broad based rally also broad based just one sector trading now. that is utilities most defensive part of the market travel and leisure up nearly 3%. basic resources up along commodity wi

we were relieved that jay powell was nominated for a second term. i support that. he could have been less doveish over the course of the next nine or ten months. i think he's on par with basically the right approach and i trust him. the problem is everybody that comes after him and dodder c's y would certainly be a problem. one chairman can only do so much when they're surrounded by elizabeth warren accolades and that's what cordray would be. we've experienced that with the cfpb. to have him in a supervisory role would be problematic for sure and it would be -- i think it would be a very difficult senate confirmation a process he's. now, 50 democrats and the vice president can do whatever they want. but we would certainly make it difficult. maria: yeah, it doesn't look like he is a lock-in for the nomination. maybe this was an opportunity for a trial balloon to see who says what about it. senator, it's good to see you. thanks very much for being with me this morning. senator kevin cramer. >> pleasure is always mine. thank you. maria: coming up, oil's roller coaster

danielle: i think that the market has fully priced in the old jay powell from 2018, who sounded more hawkish in his most recent congressional testimony. they have fully absorbed that increase every month, implying that by march 15 the taper has concluded, leaving the door open for a rate hike, technically speaking. but i think the market will be paying close attention to the. lots and if there is a potential for a majority of voters, of participants on the federal market committee to anticipate three rate hikes 2022. i don't think it's impossible that we get another five or six in that camp. it's hard to say, because we have our first vice president voting for dallas and for boston. matt: so, what kind of dot plot and terminal rate do you expect? danielle: that's a whole different one. it was extraordinarily difficult for jay powell and his endeavor to get the federal funds rate up to even get there. i couldn't even take a guess simply because of the flatness of the yield curve. we have seen the spread between the two year and 10 year treasury yields collapse from april to now. it's

jay powell turns hawkish, tighter policy earlier than expected. omicron uncertainty, germany moves a step closer to make covid vaccinations mandatory. tightening travel rules, the white house is considering testing all travelers to the u.s. within a day of departure regardless of vaccination status. it was a powell pivot that markets have had to adjust to. the drama is filtering through the front end of the curve. this is powell, not only captain of team transitory, but has a different word to have a faster taper and wrap it up months sooner than many expected. the two year yield jumped 10 basis points in the span of 30 minutes. this is after days we saw the two year yield fall over the omicron fears, with powell days before trying to have a more dovish stance. this pivot means we saw the u.s. spread fall to the flattest since march, 2020. this is a market that has had a lot to reconsider. there is not just drama in the treasury market, let's get into credit markets, and tell me if this sounds familiar. bankers are repackaging assets and selling h

my next guest grilled janet yellen and jay powell today. congressman lance gooden is up right after the break. ♪ new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. living with metastatic breast cancer means being relentless. whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. because every day matters. and having more of them is possible with verzenio. the only one of its kind proven to help you live significantly longer when taken with fulvestrant, regardless of menopause. verzenio + fulvestrant is for hr+, her2-metastatic breast cancer that has progressed after hormone therapy. diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor start an anti-diarrheal and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may

jay powell reiterates a pivot to a faster taper. cleveland's loretta mester tells us the data supports it. >>

lisa: jay powell has kept a tight ship. is he changing to the tone of the other, more hawkish members? the messaging and the emphasis are important. jonathan: looking forward to that decision later. special coverage on tv and radio starting at 1:30 eastern time. two days of losses into wednesday. two points on the s&p 500, up by 0.04%. the federal reserve has to get to work. tom: this is the absolute headline. the markets are speaking with confidence. we will hear it from mr. constant at the top of the next hour. it is simple. corporations will adjust, markets will adapt. lisa: i guess it is not a 1% 10 year. it is a great question. people do not understand the bond market's reaction to inflation data. believing in a transitory idea that has been cast aside at the federal reserve. 8:30 a.m., we are looking at november retail data. the important thing about retail sales -- this includes inflation. it is not inflation-adjusted. a time when consumer price inflation is running at 6.8% year-over-year, it starts to get messy. how

if he is listening, if jay powell 3.0 is actually jay powell 1.0, remember, december, 2018 i was on this set it would be like watching paint dry. let's see how hawkish he is. i think he is pressured to bep more hawkish. charles: phil, you applauded most moves jay powell made, you two or three months ago started to get a little agitated. you wanted to see the fed get more aggressive, take action. what we're seeing seeing with tt plot, is that more action. >> it is on its way. charles: you want to see more dots? >> i don't want to see commitment to a dot-plot. i think we're at peak inflation. the reason it rolls over, supply chain getting righted. we have a postrecovery f they're overly hawkish that will create a problem we could recess. what i would like to see, based on data coming in carefully unwind the balance sheet. go careful on bond-buying program and make slow, methodical decisions on a rate hike. charles: we talk about sticky, but even with the flexible stuff, we're not worried about that but the sticky stuff is still elevated. >> it really is. charles: so that is not coming down

the real question is what jay powell sees when he looks at the data today. does it tilt hawkish for you, or dovish? william: i will leave the answer to what chairman powell sees. i will also leave it to president bullard, who is also a frequent guest on your show, on the network, to talk about today's reports, how they would influence fomc policy. i can share with you my perspective on the report as how it fits into the mission and work of the institute for economic equity. you introduced me as the director. one of the things that my colleagues and i have been doing, we have been following the recovery of what many would call vulnerable groups. young teenagers, people with disabilities, minorities, women in particular. why is this important? there were great calls for social justice. the pandemic raised our concerns about how equity is being distributed in our society, so there was strenuous statements about we have to do the right things to help americans, these vulnerable workers. if you focus on the household side, it shows continued healing. employers se

day two of jay powell and janet yellen's testimony on capitol hill. dudley says accelerate the taper. we will speak to the former new york fed president after he warns it will be too late if the fed doesn't speed up its tapering december. and omicron concerns. the variant pops everywhere as countries tighten travel rules and germany talks about potentially a mandatory vaccine. from new york, i'm alix steel, with my cohost in london, guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." you were just at an aviation conference. what was your biggest take away? guy: short-term, there is an impact. that impact is manifesting itself in europe. i talked to a bunch of u.s. ceos. at the moment, they don't see any affect. thanksgiving was really strong. they expect christmas to be strong. so it feels from an aviation point of view at the moment to be a very european problem. alix: i just wonder if we are six weeks behind you guys. is it going to be our problem right after the holidays? guy: we will wait. we will watch. we will see. but the consensus at the moment is th

haslinda: jay powell said he is comfortable with the away the economy can handle it. he said with every wave of the virus it, businesses and consumers showing they can deal with it. i would say it is not his major concern. his concern is bringing down inflation. rishaad: absolutely. omicron it does essentially -- european central bank's and the bank of england looking at the impact of that, although the latter may have moved on rate hikes. there is a lot more down now. ecb going to be changing some of its policy by the town -- pandemic program. with a be expanding their asset purchase program? tell us about this. kathleen: the pepp, that is the question. their past a point, the european central banks, of emergency purchases. they have been expected to stop it altogether and at the same time, their regular asset purchase program speeded up. with a doubt about omicron the idea is they will announce rather than doubling the app, they will wait until they know about omicron to make a change their. the coe, as you say, nice edge. inflation says hike, omicron says hold. off

. >> stocks rallying as investors are looking at jay powell and saying the central bank maybe has an effective way to combat surging prices without choking out economic growth. we continue our focus on the big decision by fomc officials, moving to one of the most hawkish policies in years, moving to end their asset buying program earlier than planned, and raising interest rates almost as soon as then, but investors seemed to like what there'd. kailey: decision that was taken well by risk assets. tapering, looking at $30 billion coming off a month, and saying that they are looking at three hikes of rates in 2022 and 2023. howell said he is not that worried about the omicron variant and that he thought inflation would come down in 2022. listen to more of what the chairman had to say. >> supply and demand imbalances have continued to contribute to elevated inflation. these problems have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated. we are phasing out purchases more rapidly because with elevated inflation pressures, the economy no longer needs increasing policy support. the economy is

the talk from jay powell. markets looking for the next data point to chew on, 8:34 out of washington -- that u.s. jobs report. over the next three minutes, we will talk about what to look forward to as we talk about how maybe the new variant changes some of those numbers, going forward. your going to dig into how travel restrictions affect more workers. let's start with what economists are expecting. taylor: you told me there is this cool thing called the bloomberg terminal that you can read stories on. guess what? we also combined all of the major economists on the street. i was reading the latest from morgan stanley, looking for payrolls to jump by 560. the average on-screen, about 550. unemployment rate of about 4.6%. she is looking at 4.4%. participation rate is interesting. 61.7% as we are thinking about a labor force that is trying to reenter the market. we still have near record jobs openings that we have been getting. still incredible when we are looking at how to push forward, all in reaction to the d

this is a vastly different jay powell than what we heard. we read something different? claudia: i think the question is interesting about the politics. i wrote my subset post on this because i found it interesting it has some credence in some circles. the fed is a politically independent in its policy decision. washington, d.c., politics are there. it has gotten pulled into some of these complicated issues especially in labor markets. like how inclusive and the diversity. i really do believe the decisions they are making are being driven by what is happening in the economy and unfortunately, the fed is setting up for this tough trade-off between inflation staying high, we need to get that back down and we want to get every worker back to work. they are going to face this trade-off and they frankly have not done a good job of explaining how that works in the new framework. they are pushed around by politics plays them as i'm sure we will see, but i don't think that is what is driving what jay is doing in the fed. caroline: talk to us quickly about where the importance of

i've been pretty bullish for the long run i still like the stock before jay powell pivots and decided interest rates had to go higher, i liked tons of stuff but tons, including the ones with amazie igrowth rates that traded high. i love them. why spend a tremendous amount of time talk about the interplay between the fed and liquidity and the stock market you can spend a lot of time trying to understand this stuff. there are fewer stocks that go up when the feds tightening and many more that go up when the fed's easing that's all you need know while you don't want to fight the tape especially since we tend to have a santa claus rally right about now, you also never want to fight the fed. you can't like the stock market as much as you did a month ago even though-higher that's nature of the market. beast. what doesn't work in a world where the federal reserve is tightening you think the big losers would be the cyclicals like the industrials. raise rates, cool. what really gets hammered when the fed starts tightening are the companies with no earnings which is why i have been focused on t

kathleen: there was so much talk about jay powell's hawkish tilt. it has become the fomc's major inflation battle. paul volcker in the 1980's, having to fight back against inflation, but the fomc like powell now agrees that inflation is no longer transitory, the economy is quickly moving towards full employment, and importantly, they did not even speed up the taper. they signaled three rate hikes in 2022. look at our classic chart. you can see out of the 16 current members of the fomc, there are now 10 favoring rate hikes next year. there are two who see 4 rate hikes, not three, and there were five that only see one, but remember in september, nine of the people on the fomc or half then did not see any rate hikes in 2022. this was a major shift. when jay powell was asked about moving to rate hikes, listen to what he said. >> the economy is so much stronger. it is so much closer to full employment. inflation is running well above target and growth well above potential. there would not be the need for that kind of long delay. having said that, we will

also neil, it will put pressure on jay powell and the fed. they will have to move forward they are tapering. i think they should and qe. i think they should and qe. neil: what about speeding it up and getting it done in a couple of months rather than six months? >> i think you are 100% right. i think they should and qe in january and raise rates in february. neil: it's really up to the fed to address this issue as things stand now. >> yeah. the biggest problem we have had in this inflation bulge, the federal spending has been financed indirectly by the federal reserve. money supply is exploding. the balance sheets, they have poured money into the banking system, so the feds got to stop funding anything and the bill back better bill should be paused and/or defeated. of course, i want the bill to be killed. i think it's a terrible idea in all this manifestation. these numbers today will have a big political impact. neil: what's interesting also is there is this conference and you have gotten into this, frommer's generous wage hike next year for

we do see the stock moving higher on this news and you know , jay powell did reference omicron and i want people to hear what he specifically said about it. this as , folks, everybody knows , we just passed 800,000 deaths here in the united states , when it comes to covid overall. let's listen to what he said and john you can then comment. >> depend, you know, on how much it suppresses demand as opposed to suppressing supply it is not clear how big the effects be on either inflation or growth or hiring, on top of what's already going on which is quite a strong wave of delta that's hitting large parts of the country. liz: you know, you add this apple news into it, you're telling me there's not going to be some sort of renewed impact, john, from the omicron virus? what are you foreseeing as an economist? >> i would say that the omicron virus does have an impact, certainly not as much as delta. i think we certainly have a lot more people fully vaccinated. a lot more people are cautious with respect to their personal activities, so it will be a slight negative impact but nothing like the

inflation is public enemy number one for jay powell. he announced a faster rate of tapering. >> supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to elevated levels of inflation. these problems have been larger than anticipated. we are phasing out our purchases more rapidly. with elevated inflation preference --, the economy known younger needs increasing amounts of policy support. i was at the fed when we lifted off the last time and the economy is so much stronger and closer now. there's a provision, the balanced approach provision. it's a provision that would enable us to move before achieving maximum employment. manus: one dong strong economy. -- dawn strong economy. ben ram, great to have you with us. more hawkish tone than the market was expecting. yet the market in the curve still doesn't believe we will get to where the fed is guiding us out of 2024. your take? ben: good morning manny. the long and, we've seen the front and explode. that's going to be the case as the fed start

the federal reserve chairman, jay powell in front of the senate banking committee. he goes in front of the house a little bit later. you can draw your and conclusions, tk. futures on the s&p advancing by 2.18%. yields higher to 1.48 present. a lot has changed since that november meeting. tom: have some more eggnog. we talked about this yesterday, before we get to jack fitzpatrick in washington. euro swissie touched down under 104 and got down to 103 something. that showed the emotion you saw yesterday. jonathan: and the whole way down on euro swiss, everything will time we talk about the currency, he would say it was too strong. what are you going to do about it? it is too strong at 110, too strong at 104. tom: jack fitzpatrick is in washington then going, what are they talking about? he joins us now, or bloomberg government reporter launching into december. this president launches into december. what does he want to celebrate new year's eve? jack: december i think in washington is less going to be about celebrations than getting by. yes, democrats want to get their

fed chair jay powell testifies for a second day. we will speak with david rubenstein, co-chair and cofounder of the carlyle group to get his thoughts on inflation as the chairman reiterates his move to declare more quickly. plus the who says the current shots will likely protect against severe cases with a new strain as it tries to ease the public sphere. with omicron also affecting oil prices, we will take a look at how the variant is impacting opec's meeting as they consider the possibility of raising or cutting production. amanda: that is one asset class that has not rebounded. stocks having a much better day today. coming off the highs as the session goes along. we didn't get the positive finished by the end of the day. iou a dollar although it is a canadian dollar so it's $.78. we are seeing gauged financials, utilities. big tech is doing ok. middle of the cat -- middle of the pack. the yield unchanged today. lots of questions about what's going on in the direction of rates and we have been talking about the fact that stocks no

no hike is expected but the language jay powell may use today about when those hikes could come and how many there could be next year is the key to, well, everything so we'll wait until 2:00 p.m another down day after the market hit small caps. that is falling more than 1% the third day down words like microsoft and adobe that have been white hot nasdaq is now off more than 6% we also continue to watch crypto after some wild moves we've seen even for crypto and things like doj coin and yesterday some of the major cryptos are higher right now. crypto back above 45,000 oil down under 1%. at risk of falling below $70 a barrel got to look at bonds you talk about the fed, you always have to talk about bonds. the treasuries and equity futures not doing a whole lot. makingthat call about interest rates and yields coming down they've been right sitting still below 1.5% even with the idea of rate hikes. that is pretty dog on remarkable i'm not sure any market at this time in history has ever seen. no doubt overseas, they are also waiting. julianna tatelbaum in the london news room. is the fed on

it seems to have come after jay powell was reappointed. he certainly seems to have started discarding his dovish wings and may be taken on his hawkish horns. it is not by accident. every but not on capitol hill, it seems, and the president, is asking for the fed to deal with inflation. how different a narrative is this, and how should the markets think about it? jason: i think first and foremost, we do have to appreciate how dramatic the shift in political economy and policy has been over the past several months. not just monetary policy, but also fiscal policy. not just in the united states, but globally. the focus today, rather than stabilizing incomes and accelerating the pace of recovery from the pandemic reduced -- pinned amick-induced recession, is containing inflation. if we go to three months ago, a rate hike in 2022 looked to be an even money bet. today, he rate hike next year looks like a virtual certainty, and in fact, i think it is more likely that we see four or five rate hikes next year than zero. so this is a big change, and

at cnbc >>> jay powell and the feds speeding up the end of their e easy rate money. stock investors not concerned, the nasdaq surging more than 300 points and futures are higher. >>> president biden not likely getting his nearly $2 trillion spending plan for christmas. as one key democrat drops the hammer. >>> apple becoming the latest major company to retool its return to work plans >>> and it is the end of the road for urban meyer in jacksonville, even before one year at the helm it's thursday, december 16th, and this is "worldwide exchange." >>> good morning, good afternoon, or good evening and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan good morning let's get to it. looking like nice gains again today. stock futures are higher across the board. dow futures up 264 points and the nasdaq more impressive, up more than one half of 1% wednesday saw a move higher on the fed move, the dow rising 1%. the nasdaq up more than 2%, the real star, jumping more than 300 points was a case of investors buying the actual news once the fed confirmed w

jay powell was appointed by the previous a adminstration. i not reappointing powell, he would say we have a clean slate. we have to fight inflation. but now he owns it. so i think the rock and the hard place is the right way to think about it. gina: talk to us a little bit about your investment strategy. if we are going to have a more deeply embedded inflation, if we are going to have faster inflation, but maybe not 1970's inflation, what you do with your asset allocation, and specifically within the equity market, what is your mix? richard: obviously we want to have pro-inflation assets in the portfolio, and i think most investors are very underweight pro-inflation assets. but at the same time, getting to some of the other questions we were just talking about, one has to renumber that inflation really pops up in a late cycle environment. so i think you want to have spare tires in the portfolio. we are overweight energy and industrials and some emerging markets, all of the traditional perrault inflation -- traditional pro-inflation type asse

and you heard jay powell say that yesterday. they're going to accelerate the taper, they're going to hike rates sooner and the biggest thing that surprised me yesterday, though, was when jay powell said he thinks inflation is going to be back around 2% in a year. however, median one year forward expectations on inflation are 6%, median three year expectations are 4%. so somebody's wrong here and i think it's jay powell. personally, i think the fed should have just stopped buying bonds completely right now, forget the tapering, accelerate it all the way to right now and they should start raising rates sooner. the biggest question is whether or not they begin to unwind the balance sheet. overall, i think this is being looked at very positively as far as the stock market goes. maria: yeah, it sure is. we're getting a headline, bank of england is raising the bank rate from 1-tenth of a percent, they're lifting it a bit at the meeting this morning. a new fox business poll shows nearly half of americans say biden's actions are making

angel: jay powell has said for the second time in two days that officials should have policy support. he said inflation has become more persistent and policy will adapt. cleveland fed president told us she supports that view. >> going into the september meeting, i thought there was a strong case for tapering at a faster pace than we announced. since then, the data is supportive of that. i am open to a faster pace of tapering. angel: south africa's covid cases have doubled in a day as the omicron variant takes hold. three quarters of sample sequenced in november were of the new mutation, replacing delta as the dominant variant. there is no indication that omicron is deadlier than other covid strains. 300 cases reported around the world all have been mild or have shown no symptoms at all. conservatives in the u.s. supreme court suggested they may rollback abortion rights. in an argument that lasted almost two hours, all six republican appointed justices indicated they would let states ban abortions. under a 1992 ruling dates can impose significant obstacles, which court suggested to aro

the ball's going to drop in times square and jay powell will drop interest rates? >> here's what i think will happen you can listen to me and learn something here, okay >> oh! >> you need a catalyst and the fed is it. their taper will be done by march. they're making noise about raising interest rates look, i'm not saying we won't have a good 2022, but i do fully expect a 10%+ correction in the first quarter and what i will not do is ride it down and then sell shares and say look at me, i'm so cute and buying here and selling there, you have to buy short and sell high. that's how this game works so i'll trim next week i started out by buying northrop grumman. i'll raise 10% cash and i'll have my dry powder and you and i can have fun going back and forth as the first quarter develops >> all right i mean, i like the bazooka you're firing back at me i can take it. that's all good. kevin o'leary, good to see you again, my man. it's been a while. how about farmer jim driving his tractor ahead of the exit. is it so good that we'll start to lighten up and take advantage o

the question on jay powell's turn here is what changed the fed chair's mind and the federal reserve's mind on inflation? guest: first, the answer is, the fed was expecting inflation to rise this year, but not nearly as much as it has. they thought we would be past the worst of it. used car prices, for example, are up 30% this year. it does not seem like a sustainable state of affairs. the other factor is, if you look at the labor market, the unemployment rate right now is at 4.2%. the meeting before the last one they had was a full point higher. that dramatic improvement to the labor market is a sign to the fed that the job market is much tighter than they expected it to be. they are concerned that if wages accelerate, you could have an inflationary cycle take hold that is separate from the bottleneck driven inflation that we have had on the supply side. host: the pieces that came out of that is that the fed will raise interest rates by .75%. what does that mean for the economy in terms of how much a car loan might cost? what will affect those rates? guest: when the fed raises overnig

powell yesterday, we learned by experience. >> reducing the balance sheet is jay powell's hot stove, right. >> yeah. >> it's the thing that really has -- he really learned and was chasing by that effort he'll approach that very slowly. i do know that the fed thinks that's the least predictable tool that it has much more information on how to do things with interest rates than it does with reducing the balance sheet. so i think that's the third order of response. they may get there, but they'll tread gingerly in that regard. >> in closing, steve, i think one way to look at the message to the markets was party on, garth. i think that was it. >> i think you're right. >> go for it. >> i think you're right. >> you saw it in the tech stocks >> yeah. but here's the thing, is that the right thing? >> yeah, i don't know. i think it's -- >> you have the copyright. >> is that the right thing is that going to address inflation? >> exactly that's a long-term worry, though the markets, make me chase but not right now. that's such a great expression to use all the time. thank you, steve. >>> yester

jay powell understands this. although a ma jolter of the question and answer period was about the public mission, there were a couple of tells that i think the market picked up on. that is why we had the big reversal. part of an answer went like this to the question. first part of your question, why is why not stop purchasing now? we've learned it is best to take a careful, sort of methodical approach to making adjustments. markets can be sensitive to it. hmmm. i'm sure the street took comfort from that convoluted answer to the magic number that signals full employment. he was asked about that. well, we already know powell of course is focused on the unemployment, not as much on u-3 number but the unemployment rate. the fact of the matter both these things are not foolproof and neither are really a proxy for the health or labor market but he used the word inclusive also a lot yesterday. harkening to the determination to lower are unemployment rate for greater participation of all americans that has been a dangero

jay powell seems to get it. if the politicians would leave the fed alone, that would be much better. the independence of the fed is always threatened by politics. matt: i want to get the politics and rip up the script tom keene style. i look at your resume and i think about build back better and chances it will not pass as i think about my personal concerns the salt deduction cap will not be lifted. i look at your resume, you are the commissioner of the delaware river port authority and served on the treasury transition teams. you are a board member of the new jersey economic develop an authority. i've been asking myself why do these states, especially new jersey and new york, have such high taxes compared to other states? it seems to only matter the salt cap to the tri-state area. if we do not get that, what else can be done to lower these tax burdens that are incredibly heavy on a lot of working families in those states? david: it takes a shop and it has not happened yet. i agree with you. our company used to

they dismiss it as something technical, as jay powell seemed to do this week? tom: on the bitcoin observations, kenneth rogoff of harvard university was stunning, how he stated that he got wrong the pace of regulation on bitcoin. that will be something to watch into 2022 at the sec. we watched david riley always because of his great perspective at bluebay asset management. he joins us now to reset and recalibrate. how do you reset and recalibrate after powell, after bailey, and after lagarde? david: i think what those three meetings have highlighted is that we are going to 2022 with a story around divergence across central banks. we've got the ecb that is still very much in the inflation transitory camp, i think more or less for the right reasons in the case of europe, and it is going to continue to expand its balance sheet. we have the bank of england increase rates by 15 basis points, but by march it could be actively reducing the size of its balance sheet. most importantly, in terms of the fed. but i think what the fed, what was interesting, the fed meeting

could that happen, or is there ultimate faith that fed chair jay powell will step in the moment there is turbulence and try to calm the waters by taking a step off the pedal? george: we think bonds are too sanguine here. you should expect more volatility. the economic outcomes here are not quite as certain perhaps as the market expects. but the one thing that is certain is the economy is strong. inflation is running high. that's pretty good for corporations, so there's an argument as to why stock prices are at least holding, moving up a bit higher. but in the world of credit, credit base to extend come -- credit based fixed income, higher credit is a better environment. defaults should remain low as we move forward, and that is a healthy indication. you need the extra income. diversified sources of income are the best thing you can have any fixed income portfolio today , and you need that extra income. you may use it, but more importantly, you are looking for opportunities to reinvest the income. yields should go a bit higher. we need to invest in higher rates. we want slightly shorte

jonathan: then added onto payrolls on friday, and then to simmer 15 for fed chair jay powell in this federal reserve decision. are we on a slow march, may be a quicker march, towards that rate hike? tom: is he betting on an employment economy? jonathan: that was in include -- that was the conclusion you heard in his voice yesterday. if he is considering a quicker taper, is he also considering the next step? that is the debate the market will have. tom: what will he from chairman powell today? the house is different from the senate. it is a more fractious. lisa: we will hear more posturing in terms of issues that people want to push forward. jon ferro to said he's going to be looking forward to december 15 after that decision by the federal reserve. this is new. he was going to take the year off after november. this is different. we have action. jonathan: i was going to be here for the 15th any 16 -- 15 to end the 16th, and then away -- 15th and the 16th, and then away. i thought this week, the central bank would become omicron dependent, and the surprise from yesterday was that we di

we saw that demonstrated by jay powell last night. a, do you think that is necessary? do you think we are in an inflationary cycle that requires a monetary response? what impact do you think that will have on continental and the wider energy story? >> you are sure are seeing the trends out there, all the information coming out that it is clearly describing inflation is back at the highest level we have seen in 30 years. no doubt that is being manifested throughout the whole industry, petroleum industry as well as every other industry. we are a commodity, so we have to take the cost into consideration of every decision we make. we just have to operate better. the one thing that may play into this, from a regulatory, government perspective can be done? the number one determinant of a company like ours -- i have had the chance to work with lots of different companies around the world. consistency is the most important thing. a regulatory environment where people know what will happen. when there is uncertainty, the petroleum industry is saying we don't know which way to g

i know jay powell is going to say the virus and worries about that is a downside risk. you got the headlines coming out of the uk and in the same breath, he knows he has to move. at this point. he's got inflation problems. and also, frankly, they have a credibility problem if they don't move >> i want to share a preview of our fed survey this one question. we asked will the fed have to raise rates above neutral to slow the economy to get control of inflation 45% say yes, the fed will have to slow the economy to get control of inflation neutral is 2.5%. somewhere in there so there are some hawkish folks out there that think what we're seeing now is just the leading edge perhaps of more hawkish policies to come if the fed does not get control of inflation >> steve weissman, the survey says that, cramer says in his investing club, you have to expect a more harsh statement in the beginning of a tougher time being long steve weiss, that's the word from cramer. you've heard what liesman says the likely to happen he gave us a little teaser on the survey, which is going to be f

jay powell tried to downplay this but the message the moment is are we setting ourselves up? >> you get a lot of different opinions but when you look at the price action in the bond market, not everyone is on the same page with the fed right now whether it's the regards of the end of the taper the start of the rate hikes or the number of rate hikes. we may not see any hike next year despite that the fact that hike is giving the guidance for about three hikes. he seems to be on the extreme but you are hearing other folks thinking to be the hype it depends where the economy is going. another point that was brought up as the underperformance of a lot of the european assets relative to the u.s. the big question people are asking is when do you see that catch-up? guy: europe in many ways is geared to that cyclicality. if you are a u.s. investor, or a dollar investor, let's take -- you would make 16% but if you are a dollar investor, you would make 8% so the currency has hurt this year if you are a u.s. investor. the money has been pouring in your direction. >> last year, you didn'

gains on the back of the comments from jay powell and then the big selloff yesterday and the read across europe. weighing out inflationary risks and the shift in divergence. the spanish ibex down 0.7% in line with the futures. the cac 40 down 0.3%. maybe getting some support from airbus. and the ftse 100 flat after the announcement by the boe, the raise in rates by the bank of england taking some by surprise. there is still a view that the bears on sterling have something to go with. playing out across the sectors, looking at the grr function. technology was leading the pack yesterday. comfortably below the 150 level. the trajectory crucial to the growth stocks peered u.s. futures -- growth stocks. a bit of a turnaround present he futures after heavy selling yesterday. gold above $1800 per ounce. blackrock saying the elemental may get a bid in 2022. and the turkish lira back in focus. further losses of 2.6%. another record low. inflation in that nation of 21%. another cut to the interest rates. an unusual policy mix. francine: so diplomatic. it took a while to break the 14 psychological

are you desperate to find out what jay powell is going to say? >> i want to know how data dependent they are for interest rate hikes, or will they watch the data before they do it? stuart: you are the financial -- >> data dependent? lauren: keep your screens on me. stuart: brian brehm bird may your presence felt already. what should the fed do? >> they've got to take this seriously. too much money chasing -- he is white is exciting, not because of the terminology and minutia that if they blow it in a bad way but inflation takes off. if they don't do something serious this problems gets exponentially worse heading into next year in 2023. you don't mess with inflation. it hasn't focused on its mandate to keep prices stable at as a result we have producer prices over 9%. that exciting all the wrong ways. stuart: it is exciting for investors. if they say one wrong word this afternoon you could have a selloff on your hands. >> it matters to mainstreet because if they get this wrong we see inflation like we haven't seen in a long time. our i got to be

senator from west virginia is keying off this inflation story, name checking jay powell. it is strengthening his hand. it is likely this will bleed well into next year. can the biden administration afford to let this go beyond january? this is a midterm election year. caroline: that senator from west virginia is also focused on foreign policy. he says, we need to account for foreign policy challenges, russia being one of them. also china. it is interesting that we do at the same time have a lot of tough conversations out of the u.s. versus china with antony blinken. joe: you heard his remarks a couple of moments ago. joe biden walked into this with his recent video chat with president xi. malaysia, thailand, indonesia, these are relationships the u.s. is trying to rebuild. always, it is interesting, whenever administration officials speak tough on china, they go back to the refrain we want competition not conflict. tenant did push back, but it is clear this is another brick in the wall, reaffirming where we are in southeast asia. caroline: certainly when supply chains are

let's hear from fed chair jay powell. [video clip] >> at the federal reserve, we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals congress has given us, maximum employment. in support of these goals, the federal open market committee kept interest rates near zero today and updated its assessment of progress that the economy has made toward the criteria specified in the committee's forward guidance for interest rates. in addition, in light of the strengthening labor market and elevated inflation pressures, we decided to speed up the reduction in our asset purchases. as i will explain, economic developments and changes to the alec warrant this evolution to monitor -- to the outlook warrants this evolution to monetary policy. economic activity is on track to expand at a robust pace this year, reflecting progress on vaccinations and the reopening of the economy. aggregate manned remains very strong, buoyed by fiscal and -- aggregate demand romans very strong. the rise in the covid cases in recent weeks, along wit

lisa: the reason it has been so harsh, the commentary from jay powell, is it is emphasizing inflation more than in the past. i wonder how important the labor market report will be tomorrow, it is a drumbeat for tomorrow, right? is it all inflation that they are seeing and fighting at this point? jonathan: we have seen inflation be more persistent, we've seen the factors causing higher inflation to be more persistent in the words of chairman powell. policy has adapted and will continue to adapt. that's a strong signal there's is more to come. lisa: do you think christine lagarde will still say transitory given her peers are abandoning her? jonathan: in italy if they try to pull with the federal reserve has pooled it will be different than the 3%, 4% move we have seen on u.s. equities. lisa: it is a credibility issue for them if they keep trying to hammer home it will be transitory when everyone else says not so much. jonathan: in america, financial conditions are very loose. it is not lift off, it is what you need to do after liftoff given how deeply negative real rates are in america.

there will have to be a fine message from jay powell in terms of what the fed will do next. how much can the u.s. weather these challenges that seem to be building as a result of omicron, and in terms of sentiment for consumers is very important as well as longer-term growth prospects. >> sam, what can you tell us about vaccines and omicron. it seemed like over the weekend if you had two shots you are probably not as protected, are we going to have more trails end and data? >> we will see vaccine effectiveness data come out, the u.k. clearly is one of the biggest users of the astrazeneca vaccine. so you would have a study initially of what people with the vaccine from astr - -astrazeneca respond. the u.k. was a slight outlier in extending the dosing, and that may give the u.k. an advantage. and certainly, we continue to see data like that coming third. >> i know you are keeping a close eye on data that is coming out, if you have groups that are moving the most, that airlines have asked for support, i don't know how it will play out in terms of what we should be watching out

inflation surging and investors keen to find out just how hawkish jay powell has become. let's bring in kathleen hays with more. kathleen, how much of a jolt you think tuesday's epi prices can give when it comes to the fed policy deliberations? kathleen: it drives home the point that inflation, anyway you look at it, expectations continue to search. and producer prices are wholesale prices. consumer prices are what you pay when you go to the store. the thing is, if the producers have to pay more for their input and they have to charge more for their output, that is going to feed into retail prices. that is another thing that which is cash that would suggest that momentum continues to build. that is a nine .9% increase year-over-year in the month of november. it is on top of 8.6% the month before. can you say it is just energy and food prices? maybe not. core ppi is a little less, maybe 8% year-over-year on top of 7% the month before. it seems like it is not just goods prices rising -- we saw a lot of that coming out during the pandemic -- service prices are rising too. if

still ahead, federal reserve chairman jay powell rising inflation may not be transitory after all. 's how long does inflation have to run above your target we force the fed besides maybe it's not transitory? >> it's probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean. paul: federal reserve chairman jerome powell on capitol hill this week acknowledging it may be time scrapped the term transitory running describing transitory as prices climb well past 2% target to a 31 year high of 6.2% in october. powell forney the banking committee tuesday he expects prices to continue into next year the new omicron bearings could have a negative impact of inflation and employment. disappointing 210,000 new jobs in november, the fewest in nearly a year. let's bring in kevin hassett, chairman of the white house council of economic advisors under president trump. let's take the jobs report, 210,000 new jobs but on the other hand, who interest in the labor force and unemployment rate of 4.2%, where is the economy? >> basically fourth quarter changed on the outside it'

that is the pivot that we seemed to hear from jay powell. brent: i heard chair powell stated that he does not believe inflation is going to leave a permanent mark. i think the fed doesn't want to appear to be tone deaf. i think they want to give themselves some optionality. i think they believe me that the tapering is necessary. i think the fed wants to try to see long-term growth in the is economy by bringing people back into the labor market. if they don't come our longer-term growth rate is much less. why do believe they are going to try to stick around as long as they possibly can, like they did in the last economic cycle, to see if they could get the participation rate up because that helps determine what our growth rate can be. if we are at the levels we are currently at now, we could be in some trouble. lisa: how far you'd go in terms of -- how far do you go in terms of going into risk? do you go into airlines when they are beaten up? do you go into banks on the idea that yield curve dynamics will change in your favor? brent: we never