tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. the sum of all yourrs

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting your trading week started. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio kit alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. tom: the nasdaq down 1.2% on futures. look at the roller coaster of the vix, which really sets up the week ahead, coming from a really quiescent 26 level, we explode up to 31, i believe we saw friday, and even now elevated above 30. jonathan: you mentioned a roller coaster. 10 year yields down friday by 10 basis points, up this morning by four to 1.38. what was friday about? trying to work out what all these moves are about. tom: be careful here. fankly, kailey is probably better read in than me, but the zeitgeist right now is to push aside omicron. i do not agree with that. i really people worldwide are fixated about what to do about omicron, and that has filtered into the market. italy changing their super green pass. jonathan: it is the good news --

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. a two-day losing streak. tom: many people say this is the most significant meeting we have seen in years. i like what you said, jon, i think there is an emphasis shift out there. jonathan: he is looking for the news conference. it is really important. has the baseline shifted that much more chairman powell? tom: what does this mean before jon goes off and sees west ham -arsenal in the middle of the press conference. this is about dollar dynamics. the u.s. wins, the dollar wins. jonathan: i asked him whether he will be watching the game. tom: it was a bloomberg app appeared you can do that anywhere. jonathan: that is the promotion taken care of. that news conference will be important. lisa: i wanted to know what the answer was. [laughter] lisa: that might actually inform my opinion. it is a really important press conference. it is the first formal discussion jay powell will give us after his sharp pivot. many people do not fully understand. what is the main driver? political? was there something that tipped hi

this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro getting ready for event full 9:00 program with a new high in the two year yield off the joy of science on omicron seeming very constructive. lisa and i want to brief you on something we have not mentioned. i think this sets us up for a must pay attention to bloomberg and particular our hong kong and beijing desks this evening, new york time, which is evergrande and china real estate takes a new leg down. they have had a distressing 24 hours. lisa: people are speculating they have to restructure. they have not made a lot of payments or at least creditors overseas have not received payments owed to them. it is not just evergreen. it is also another developer in china. all of this feeding into the back shop of china realizing there is a problem in changing their tone this week about the importance of financial stability over curbing some of the leverage that put into pumping up some of the sectors. tom: we do not have the chart for radio or tv, but the log chart for evergrande

tom keene, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro. advancing 0.3% in the bond market. your 10 year yield up five basis points. we have talked about rate hikes. the likes of barclays saying we could have a lift off in may of next year. betsy graseck at morgan stanley has another idea of what this could mean for the banks, raising the outlook for goldman and wells fargo, saying the firm looks at credit concerns, and the prospect of higher rates are a prospect for bank stocks. tom: as you know, betsy graseck is one of my favorite people on the street. she is a legit japanese scholar just like robbie feldman for morgan stanley. betsy graseck writes the most detailed bank reports. every sell side analyst is different, and betsy graseck is a numbers person. every paragraph is loaded with facts and details. that is the tone that we see here, going to dovetail economics into what we see on the street. with us, working on her itinerary as she moves from the fenway bowl at the university of virginia to the music city bowl in purdue, and finally crescendoing to the peach all as w

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. your equity market fading a bit, then bouncing back 0.4 percent. nasdaq 100 futures slightly negative, down by about six points. we are -0.03 percent. yields are higher by not much now, by two basis points to 1.40% on tens. you're stuck mover of the morning's apple in the premarket. reporting here at bloomberg, the company telling component suppliers that demand for the iphone 13 lineup has weakened, according to people familiar with the matter. $160.40 in the premarket. your big bull on the street right now is dan ives of wedbush at $200. tom: we look at the opportunity right now. also want to point out we are looking for a miracle press conference out of germany, which could be of interest. tom forte joins us, d.a. davidson. let me cut to the chase. do you buy the dip? tom f: you do, although i worry that the $160 price of apple is on a growing assumption that they will enter electronic vehicles. but if you look at multiyear upgrade cycles for 5g, i think that is still intact. poten

kailey leinz, gina martin adams, and guy johnson in for tom keene

lisa: tom keene writing banners on his day off. he just tweeted, "looking around the corner to the hump of inflation." jonathan: is that right? lisa: he's looking around the corner. jonathan: do you think tom might be a bit bored/hung over? [laughter] lisa: i will let you make those assumptions. i think he just once to keep up with us. jonathan: up 14 on the s&p, advancing 0.3%. it is inflation day in america. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the biden administration is seeking to downplay inflation ahead of a data release that is sure to show a surge in consumer prices. the white house says the consumer price index won't reflect some price movements in gasoline and natural gas prices. according to a bloomberg survey of economists, the cpi probably increased 6.8% from a year ago. the number is out not long from now at 8:30 a.m. new york time. president biden has assured ukraine of the u.s. support in its standoff with russia. the u.s. leader pledged not to hold talks about ukraine's future

tom: the president of the united states, when he has a cold he sounds like tom keene. kailey: a deepening of his voice. tom: we welcome all of you on radio and television. this is the conversation across the station on oil. last week i thought bloomberg as a company was exceptional in driving the hydrocarbon story forward. those looking for a new level of $80 or even $100 a barrel or even higher as jp morgan calls for, and then abrupt opposite views led by deutsche bank. it is a battle over the gaming of oil. amrita sen is with energy aspects and street is hugely -- and she is cute -- and she is hugely qualified to look at global dynamics of a few years ago and a few other selected schools. we are thrilled to welcome you to bloomberg in new york. here's what i thought -- here is what i saw on the jp morgan powerpoint. there is an assumption by the oil price pools it will be different this time. shale oil pricing has not come in as oil price goes higher. what do you say? amrita: i think the price of shale production has changed dramatically. tom: this is not three or fo

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 0.6% on the s&p 500. rate hikes for 2022. tom: we went through it. i've been waiting for the data to come in. i'm looking at the wall of information we've got on the zeitgeist. brazil is going to come out with data. turkey is going to come out with data. the u.s. is going to come out with data at it: 30 today, and we will all move forward. the market is up. jonathan: the market is saying, we don't know. yet they are willing to say 2020 to two liftoff is just off the corner and then some. lisa: jay powell basically gave them that signal when he talked about the taper. this with a game changer. the interesting thing is, as tom said, the market is up. we are not seeing a tightening in financial conditions even if you see -- even as you see people pricing in rate hikes for 2022 and 2023. jonathan: the optimism of q1, and then we look at q4 and rollover. tom: i am going to talk about the duration. everyone is short-term two years. you learn a lot from the 30 ye

tom keene back wednesday for that fed decision. s&p 500 up 16 points. yields are calm this morning, unchanged on a tenure at 14769 -- one point 4769. this is bloomberg surveillance." ♪ jonathon: all-time highs on the s&p 500, an important week. equity markets advancing weight 3%. -- advancing .3%. an important conversation, reach out to the team at deutsche's, the relationship to rates and multiples are just how close has it been and what does it mean we talk about higher interest rates from the fed. for all the talk you and i are having, still at 66, 10th at 147. equity market at a record high. lisa: of the rise we see at the front and. why has the stock market remained so sanguine about the rise we see at the front and? jonathon: multiples hi because rates are low or is it a classic early stage of recovery where higher rates are priced in? that is what deutsche's made in their research. lisa: lori singh 10 year yield tame. how much is that the real driver of risk appetite and not a front end? jonathon: let's do this for the fx markets. tilted heavil

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro from new york. yields bounce back three basis points at 1.43. it's covid-19 antibody treatment looks to be effective against the new omicron variant in early testing. going against something we heard from regeneron. it has been decent news in the last 24 hours. jonathan: if you want -- tom: if you want to speak about south africa and the fears we face, we will speak to be professor at johns hopkins university. christopher is one of the great international students of these horrific pandemic diseases we see. when you heard about omicron and you dovetail it with the phrase south africa, how did you respond? >> we were very concerned because the area where the omicron virus spread most, where johannesburg and victoria art and the surrounding provinces just got through a very severe wave of delta. they had a delta surge from july until september this past year. you would expect this is a highly immune population. more than 70% of adults had covid during the surge. tom: i take issue with the non-science

with tom keene, jonathan ferro and a lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. we welcome all of you on rad

-- tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. a lot of traders probably off, too. guy: like volume headed into christmas. -- light volume headed into christmas. my house is currently dominated by movies that seem to involve reindeer, reindeer getting lost, that sort of thing. let's talk a little bit about where we are going. the equity markets at the moment of got a lot of challenges as we go into 2022, but i have to say, i keep reading everything will day sell side reports that tell me next year is going to be good. you look at the lineup of threats to that, there are some significant ones going into next year. kailey: the consensus seems to be dead returns are not going to be a stellar as they had been. still, it is going to be a year in which you can mix a money. damian: for me, it is going to be about the second half of 2022. there's no question the comps on growth are going to accelerate. is it going to be margins, topline revenues? that remains to be seen. kailey: before we can get to the new year, we've got to finish up wh

jonathan: tom keene has a problem with this as well. kailey, is this something you stay up late at night and think about? i show you the treasury board and what it looks like so everyone watching on tv at least knows what matt is talking about . equities higher by three, advancing 0.1%. treasuries lower, yields higher. you will thing is in red, ok? matt: and up arrow in red. jonathan: you want it to be green? matt: yeah. jonathan: you disagree with the format of the bloomberg terminal? matt: i won't say that. [laughter] jonathan: there you go. 1.4 911% on tens. we've got to work this out, what is going on in the economy and what it means for this market because it has not been so obvious this year. kailey: of course, we saw euro-dollar at $1.13. there's a very different five between the inflation picture and what is happening in europe, where the ecb still stands by the fact that it is transitory. jordan rochester, the fx strategist from nomura, sees something that is not music to matt miller's ears. they be he sees us going up to 5000

tom keene back with us on wednesday for that fed decision. going into that fed decision, your equity market up another zero point 2%. the s&p 500 at all-time highs. from new york city, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. the u.k. health minister says once again, the country is in a race between the vaccine and the virus. he has detailed plans to offer all adults in england a booster vaccination by the end of december. there is no certainty the government will be able to keep schools open. in kentucky, they are still searching for victims of the tornado that left a 200 mile path of destruction. governor andy beshear has lowered the death toll. still, he says 50 people have died. in illinois, six people were killed when a tornado slammed into an amazon delivery depot. 45 people made it out alive. flight attendants in the u.s. say alcohol is fueling an increase in in-flight violence by passengers. they are calling on airports to limit travelerss access -- l

tom keene back with us next week. a happy birthday to tk. jonathan: good morning come on bloomberg tv and radio. prices down 0.3% on the s&p. we are negative on the russell, negative on the nasdaq. following a three-day pop on the s&p 500, the first three-day rally we have seen on the s&p for about a month. it has been that choppy over the last few weeks, that is for sure. a ton of calls coming through. 5200 the call now from credit suisse. the upgrade their view next year from 5k. a ton of calls coming from morgan stanley. two, tens and 30's focusing very much on the front-end for next week. twos right now just short of 70 basis points. a conversation for morgan stanley shifts from january to september 2022. where on earth are we going with the ecb into thursday next week? lisa: beats me. i find this fascinating. the news today that they are looking at possibly expanding into reinvestment of the emergency bond purchasing program to prolong it after previously talking about maybe trying to start tightening at some point in 2023, i mean, hone

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. kailey: good morning on tv and radio. kailey leinz, damian sassower, and guy johnson in. santa claus has already come to this market. guy: he was always going to arrive at some point. it is being delivered on big volume. i think we will probably wait until the beginning of next year for we get an accurate gauge on what is happening. but the news this morning relatively positive. certainly the news around the omicron variant looks good. we've got this new pill coming from pfizer. it is expensive, but at least can be delivered at home. i think that speaks to a better outcome may be in the new year for omicron. my question is, is delta still waiting in the wings? the doctors seem to be telling me that it will be. we are not done with delta quite yet either. kailey: we know delta is still a problem in the u.s., although omicron now makes up the vast majority of cases. we have to talk about the policy response when we talk about the virus, and the u.s. not heading towards lockdowns or real

kailey: i hope tom keene heard that. not just waiting for an entry point into the market, entry point into the travel space. thanks a much to brian kelly, the points guy. gina martin adams has helped us fill in all week. thank you so much for joining us on this week. what is your number one take away from the past couple of days? gina: i think it is that everyone remains generally pretty optimistic. we have had a few bears, but most people are pretty optimistic about the year ahead. definitely balancing strong growth with inflation pressures. i get a sense of optimism from many of our guests. kailey: thank you so much. guy and i will be here tomorrow and guide will be coming up on bloomberg markets. futures negative about point -- about negative point when he 5% on the s&p 500 -- -.25% on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ mom, hurry! our show's gonna start soon! i promised i wouldn't miss the show and mommy always keeps her promises. oh, no! seriously? hmm! it's not the same if she's not here. oh. -what the. oh my good

tom keene back with us next week. still celebrating his birthday. he will be back for the fed decision. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ mom, hurry! our show's gonna start soon! i promised i wouldn't miss the show and mommy always keeps her promises. oh, no! seriously? hmm! it's not the same if she's not here. oh. -what the. oh my goodness! i don't suppose you can sing, can you? ♪ the snow's comin' down ♪ -mommy? ♪ i'm watching it fall ♪ watch the full story at www.xfinity.com/sing2 ♪ >> inflation is getting close to peeking. it doesn't mean it is going to go away overnight. >> we know that there are some secondhand effects on inflation. >> the game is to stop a wage five -- a wage spiral. if the fed wants to stop inflation, they should hike rates. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: cpi just around the corner, 30 minutes away. from new york city, good morning. for our audience worldwide, alongside lisa abramowicz, and jonathan

tom keene is back with us next week. kailey leinz in the sea, together with lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. the s&p down .4%. the euro weaker dollars stronger, 1.3150. yields back here at 150, a brief breach, 1.4939. back below that level, down three basis points to round things out. crew down .8%. 71.79. a couple months ago, evergrande, all anyone talked about, and we get the dword overnight. kailey: finally. jon: it has not been discussed. kailey: it seems like we already have known it had defaulted on this debt. it was never actually declared because this payment was due over 30 days ago. the grace period expired on the sixth, monday, and it has been declared in default, cutting its rating again to restrict a default. this has been a long time coming. it now seems the conversation has moved from the risk of the contagion effect to the maybe " china will not bailout evergrande but it will provide the necessary support to provide====---- support to prevent any sort of spillover. jon: there is the move. we have to th

tom keene is off, lisa is off, and jon ferro has a birthday. happy birthday buddy. it is also new year's eve, the second most important thing to discuss today. do you both have plans, are you going out, what does new year's eve look like in new york? kriti: i am staying in but i hear that times square will be popping, they will be confetti and the ball drop, i will just not be a part of any of it. dani: i cannot think of anything i would rather do less then going to times square on new year's. i will be noted -- nowhere year -- nowhere near anywhere as that. i will have a nice dinner party, it will be chilled out. matt: a little pretested -- pretexted murder mystery? are we seeing celebrations already? auckland fireworks, i hear. so, it looks like at least they are setting off fireworks. it sounds like there are people out there, i see cars driving as well. >> one of the best financial narratives to ever come out is from bradley hope and one billion-dollar layout -- one billion-dollar whale that jho low but celebrated here and then rented a commercial flight for 14

keith -- tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. a massive two-day gain on the s&p, a two-day part of the year so far, and the bond market is lower by four basis points. from 10 to 14342. this is led by the u.k.. seven about an hour ago. it is the end of the euro -- yield curve. sterling is weaker as well. 131 91. potentially new restrictions coming out government. we really with at this point. i think of three things to watch. sterling is absolutely a key issue. and also, the vix. if we have a true continued multiplication, can we get it fixed. >> i cannot call this an equity market. over the last few weeks, we have seen a criminal high. 2/10 of 1% away. >> i was in shock. it is been absolutely -- >> --. >> the nasdaq is doing pre-well. >> i don't know. it is awed. i would center on inflation reports, and friday, to confirm 7% from wells fargo. 69 for friday, 68 for the region estimate. 7.1 as well. what stagger. the calendar states very clearly that michigan state will be going to the peach bowl. washington better get their act to

i am watching the participation rate and i know tom keene keene is as well, how much do we see it increase? there are still so many people out of the labor market and there was a survey showing that nearly 1/5 of them are not looking for work, why are they coming back? this will be key to the federal reserve and key to determining if we will enter a hot environment. after that marty walsh is speaking with a host who has a british accent at 9:30 a.m. and president biden is ready to comment at 10:15 a.m. i am curious to watch marty walsh with our own jonathan ferro, just to see how he talks about the shift the power to labor pop --, how do we talk about the increases we have seen in wages that are not keeping pace with base consumer inflation but are running at some the past -- fastest pace as we have seen. at 10:00 a.m., the u.s. ism data for november. we will see the momentum in the services sector into the potential new variants of covid, which may or may not have lasting power. i want to see what the momentum is light. we were already dealing with the delta variant. we need to shift from

tom keene is back with us next week. advancing one third of 1%. yields higher by just a couple basis points. the highs of the year going into cpi, two hours and 12 minutes away. this came from jonathan golub on inflation. we highlighted -- he said historic lee this is offset by rising bond yields. in the current environment, however, inflation is not translating to higher rates, a huge benefit for stocks. lisa: part of the reason why he upgraded his expectation for the final 2022 target at 5100, saying that the discount rate would remain low, even as he saw stocks benefit. stocks being the best inflation had, how many times have we heard that? jonathan: a lot, and it has worked out for sure. the spread between the top and the bottom incredibly wide. kailey: almost 20% from what morgan stanley sees. interesting to see the divergence even though a lot of the calls are the same. morgan stanley has now pushed forward when the inflation call comes. but we will still be looking good for the most part. the fed will normalize. where that leaves equity mar

a special happy birthday to our good friend tom keene. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. a world health organization panel says it is best to get people does go doses of the same coronavirus vaccine. it -- vaccine combinations could help lowood middle income countries deal with shortages. the u.s. is reportedly ramping up the economic pressure on iran. the bided administration is tightening its economic sanctions at a time when diplomatic efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with iran have been unsuccessful so far. china is taking its biggest steps to rein in the surging yuan. the people's bank of china is forcing banks to hold more currencies and reserve. in italy, the nation's antitrust regulators find amazon more than $1.2 million, fusing the company of harmful practices in the e-commerce market. the company has asked banded -- has expanded its shipping services in europe. in manhattan apartment rents rose the most on record. that is according to appraiser miller samuel. still the median rent is almost 4% below w

. ♪ tom: good morning. "bloomberg surveillance." lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, and tom keene. mr. ferro on permanent sabbatical. caroline hyde in. markets on the move and it's not about a fed meeting, it's about three central-bank meetings and the anticipation for bank of england in 30 minutes and then on to christine lagarde and the ecb. here's caroline hyde. caroline: let's have a look at the stellar moves that continue abound in terms of u.s. stocks after the federal reserve. who knew it would be such a bullish signal, but clearly it is. we see that fine line being wrought. s&p 500 futures up 0.8%. every industry group up in europe as well. we play catch-up in europe after we saw the deciding factor coming from jay powell. you can manage to engineer some sort of soft landing. you can tackle inflation at the same time as support growth. the euro, all important to the ecb. some anticipating a slightly hawkish tilt from christine lagarde. one central-bank gets more hawkish, one continues to act in a different manner. we look at the overall turkish lira versus the u.s. dollar.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 58, advancing a little more than 1%, bouncing back from yesterday. how much of a pivot have we seen from the federal reserve chair? tom: we are going to see it again today with the house. he's talking his book, and his book is the data. tenant ought this morning, ism manufacturing. the survey is for a nice tick up in this economy. we will see. jonathan: day two for the chairman if you hours away. lisa: my take away is listen to fed vice chair rich clarida, who seemed to signal this about a week ago. how much will we see him push back against market volatility, saying that they will remain the put should things get too wild? this is a key question. what constitutes tight financial conditions? jonathan: peter tchir started this over the weekend. tom: it is his fault. jonathan: he said, how durable is that fed put? when you think about the last test we got in the back end of 2018, inflation was in and around 2%. now it is in and around 6%. they have the space to do

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside kailey leinz and matt miller, i am jonathan ferro. kailey, you have been counting all year, number 70. kailey: the most record we have seen since 1995. the least exciting record that we were up .1% yesterday. volumes light. santa claus driving us to all-time highs. jonathan: the earnings have been great, the inflation story has not compromised. it remains to be seen how benign last year's surprises will stay for the global economy and for markets, too. even the best forecaster in the world this year might have gotten the market call wrong. matt: inflation is probably the biggest headwind in a lot of ways for a lot of different groups. we were talking to marty about how the democrats would fare in midterms. he set even if the economy is coming along, it is inflation that is the real problem for them. it could turn out to be a real problem for markets, as well. the said may have been too far -- the

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: three more days left of this snoozefest. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." your equity market up seven. as we look to close out the week, still waiting for this. >> he is currently on vacation in delaware. it seems unlikely. there has been some reporting overnight on the potential of a nomination for the role. that is the one the market is focused on. jonathan: we can talk about that later. the equity market is doing well. in europe, all-time highs, reflecting what we have seen. matt: i do not think it is a snoozefest. i think there is some interesting news that investors can sink their teeth into. on the corporate side, you have the apple store with surprise bonuses. on the central bank side, the survey is out and it worked its way into the economy and supply chains, as well. on the bitcoin side, the biggest slide since may. there is a lot going on without getting to the fact we are at all-time record highs on the indexes, or near them. i am excited about thi

. >> this is a bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance live. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equity market 0.25%. lisa: are they going to make news with the taper? are they going to indicate a faster pace and a higher end target rate? jonathan: bank of america fund manager survey out this morning. that was a big discussion. the equity market is at an all-time high. lisa: people are cautious but not bearish. they are trying to wait for a better sense of whether we should worry more about tightening too quickly or look at the facts of runaway inflation. in the meantime, they think everything is going to be goldilocks as long as neither of those outcomes comes to pass. jonathan: letting some air out of an equity market coming into the week with an all-time high. 142.43, lisa, get your head around this. lisa: i cannot. we are talking about the potential of runaway inflation and looking at sub 1.5% 10 year yield. you have people saying we are at risk of runaway inflat

with tom keene, jonathan ferro and a lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. we welcome all of you on radio, television as well. jon, buy the dip, that is what we did. jonathan: getting close to all-time highs. a rally this morning. we are advancing 1.3%. tom: 1.2%. nasdaq putting out 1.8%. and talking about apple. dan ives, we were focused on a two year yield that could speak volumes with the inflation report. jonathan: looking forward to hearing from the big bull on wall street. katie huberty of jp morgan will be joining us this morning. increasing that pride target -- price target. we are taking out the highs for the year we could have a more material conversation behind just rates in america. tom: we are serious, two hands on the wheel, please. lisa, i want you to forward a two-year to a high further year into the auction dynamics we may see today. lisa: you really set me up with something that you love so dearly, i appreciate that. $54 billion auction of three-year notes today at 1:00 p.m. what's the conviction around rate hikes after the first two? we kn

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an eventful friday before the holiday season. russia making strident comments on eastern europe. you know the story on an ever-changing pandemic. jon ferro off today. caroline hyde on duty for us in london. it is getting restrictive to travel in the continent of europe. caroline: yeah, i am unable to go to france unless i have family or a significant reason thereof. of course, the u.k. numbers are sensational in terms of how high we got. a record high for the entirety of covid-19. no wonder countries are going it alone. even in the eu, you are seeing eu nations putting restrictions around each other. it is getting tough. tom: ed bastian with bloomberg yesterday of delta airlines. you really wonder how this factors into travel. what does it mean for an adjustment of american economic growth? lisa: i've read this morn that just two tourists went to bali over the last couple of months. just two. you haven't seen a central bank response. you haven't seen econo

jonathan: tom keene and lisa abramowicz will be back with us in a few days. let's start with omicron. we are trying to work out what this means, the inflation debate. how does china fall into the conversation? >> we are looking at data around the world and we can see that we had a wave in south africa that was much quicker and did not have the hospital impacts we have had in previous waves. we are starting to get signals that maybe it is the same there. there is very little natural immunity there and we do not know what they have been using. everyone wert about inflation is worried about china because china remains the supply hub of the whole world. if they have problems with supply chains again, it will add to inflation pressure that everyone has been watching in 2021. matt: when i am sitting home after a big christmas meal and i see a headline that controls -- china's central bank -- i don't know how important it is. it is very complex. the political situation is different than what we are used to in the western world. i cannot put my finger on how much mov

lisa: tom keene raise this conversation saying bond traders are smarter, the bond guys are the smartest guys in the room. are they this time or is the bond market not as much of a signal because of the distortion that frankly fed chair jay powell himself pointed to in disregarding the long end? brian: there are definitely technical factors in a has been a risk for a while, but the truth is, with the exception of the last couple of months where inflation has really spiked, which the market did not predict in the bond market anyway, it has been hard to keep long-term growth rate high. we will see if inflation stays sticky. as the fed pares back, we will find out. tom: i was told core inflation would turn in february and march of next year. what does your 10 year yield do if that is correct? brian: it probably inches higher , but looking at a chance to get over 2% for the next couple of months. it seems like it is a lot higher but we were 170 a couple of weeks ago. tom: thank you so much. i want to make clear that mr. weinstein was chosen for bloomberg surveillance this morning only becaus

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: from berlin -- matt: from berlin, new york, and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg television, on bloomberg radio. you can stream us on the internet. you can probably get us in smoke signals. i'm matt miller, alongside kriti gupta and dani burger. happy birthday, jon ferro. i hope you are sleeping still. in terms of the markets, you might as well be asleep. we don't really see much going on. for me and dani, it is almost over. in the u.s. you haven't opened yet, and it looks like you will open down. kriti: it is just getting started, so what is the word i am looking for? i am translating it in my head from what mom would tell me. don't jinx it. what is interesting to me, the vix is actually higher. we are looking at an 18 handle. i wonder if it is going to increase as we start to see a selloff. people getting rid of the positions that they do have in the market going into the last day of 2021. dani: maybe a little bit of year-end repositioning. i've got

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. the sum of all your fears. in a moment, david costin of golden stacks -- goldman sachs. it's a bull market. jonathan: sometimes this year if there is one criticism it's you haven't been bullish enough. looking ahead to next year it's all about multiples and to what degree the federal reserve bring those down with a move. what are we expecting, we're expecting to see a couple of highs in the dot plot for next year and three more a year after that. tom: the surprise may be the emphasis in the press conference. how do we link what jerome powell says to the somewhat fragility of this great bull market. >> i think steve is so right to think about the emphasis the central bank. how data-dependent is that first rate hike. does a wrap up at the end of march or just go visit a case of inflation data through q1 assessed with a degree of deceleration in inflation and then work it out there. i wonder where he will push later in that news conference. >> our bond team, two killer stories about the bond market is about the pr

and tom keene us of that everyday as he looks at his cash fund. jonathon: very upset with tears running down his cheeks. futures up 2/10. the chief economist, stephen stanley, you have things to say. it is sounding the fed is -- it is astounding that the fed is still easing as inflation is at a 39 year high. how are they going to change this? stephen: they are working and starting to accelerate the pace of tapering. it looks like they will be done with tapering in march. that doesn't clear the decks for rate hikes beginning as early as next spring. let's not get too distracted from the main story, which is that the fed is well behind the curve and even with the step they are likely to take this week, they will remain well behind the curve and they may have fallen further behind. jonathon: looking for 5330 on the s&p year and next year and they say don't expect the fed to slam the brakes. they expect the central bank as well. stephen: that is my baseline case. i think the case that they believe neutral is white low means they don't have as far to g

tom keene, jon ferro, and lisa abramowicz are off today. but 27% is the year to date again we have seen on the s&p 500, and this follows a 17% gain last year, and i think i 29% gain in 2019, so we have seen some incredible gains. the s&p 500 up 134% when you include reinvested dividends over the past four years. kriti: it is really clear that a good chunk is thanks to tech and that defensive trade. how much of that really continues when you start to see decelerating growth? do you continue to see the tech trade, and that mean that we perhaps progressed past that early part of the market cycle? that is really the question going into 2022. how do you play a lot of the concerns that persist from 2021 into the new year? dani: it does just seem like the cycle doesn't exist anymore, but we could have known perfectly what inflation would have done. matt and i were talking to she manpower -- two seaman power earlier today. would you have guessed the 10 year yield would end the year at 1.5%? i would guess not. it is a market where inflation is unpre

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance", kailey leinz, we are in for the others, all of of who are off today. santa claus seems to have been coming to the markets because the rally continues. anna: the rally does continue. we are up .1%. the man in red grabbing hold of the reins and taking it higher. we have good news at least at the margin and at least if you skew -- skew your view towards western economies. we have good news against the fight against omicron. we have a trio of data releases about the astrazeneca rooster and it is less good when you look at what is happening in china and that has humanitarian health implications and supply chain applications. kailey: an entire city being shut down and it shows that the covid zero policy might just impact china specifically it could have ripple effects. damian: certainly into emerging markets. i'm going to play lisa and be the bear. despite what we are seeing in equity markets this bull market seems to be struggling. i mean you have treasury yields

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. your equity market totally unchanged going into that print. tom: we are waiting for 8:30 this morning, and the richness we see from the two major employment reports. as you mentioned, onto an inflation study next week. what i would note is the omicron effect on this market. you see it with a solid one of three on euro-swiss -- solid 103 on euro-swiss. you saw news from germany yesterday. i wonder if that is an overlay on this american jobs report. jonathan: we go into next week looking for cpi in america the week after the federal reserve. you mentioned omicron. how omicron dependent is that federal reserve meeting? tom: i think that is what is different about this jobs report. i thought andrew pekosz was brilliant on this. it is a different pastor 8:30 -- a different path to 8:30. lisa: especially because it seems as though the job

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg "surveillance" live. together this morning with caroline hyde. tk is back with us tomorrow. lisa, just pulling back further from all-time highs. lisa: you keep seeing that the year will be over and people are tepid in terms of trading ahead of the fed meeting which is the key event tomorrow. do you think we will get anything dramatic? jonathan: maybe we will, maybe we won't. isn't that interesting regardless? lisa: it is interesting regardless. what could be market moving other than the balance sheet? what benefit do they have the knock the market off course at this point? a lot of people are figuring out how far out they increase their inflation expectations, but i think the balance sheet, from what i've heard, is the only thing that could really knock markets. jonathan: that is what citi has made in their research, they made that point. the hawkish surprise would be a balance sheet

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. kailey: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." kailey leinz, gina martin adams, and guy johnson in for tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. it is quiet out there relative to earlier this week. guy: i think it is harder when it is quieter, but definitely big shoes, particularly in the

matt: i want to get the politics and rip up the script tom keene style. i look at your resume and i think about build back better and chances it will not pass as i think about my personal concerns the salt deduction cap will not be lifted. i look at your resume, you are the commissioner of the delaware river port authority and served on the treasury transition teams. you are a board member of the new jersey economic develop an authority. i've been asking myself why do these states, especially new jersey and new york, have such high taxes compared to other states? it seems to only matter the salt cap to the tri-state area. if we do not get that, what else can be done to lower these tax burdens that are incredibly heavy on a lot of working families in those states? david: it takes a shop and it has not happened yet. i agree with you. our company used to be headquartered in new jersey. we are now in florida. we have to change. tax is not the only reason to make the change. we are on airplanes flying to florida because of the migrations of wealth. during the

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: the bank of england raises rates. it is a great surprise. the bank of england raises benchmark interest rate to a 0.25%. the wow from the economic theorist lisa abramowicz. flat outcome of the most extraordinary wednesday-thursday of what i have done bloomberg. the fed yesterday, the bank of england now. who knows what the ecb will do in 45 minutes? lisa: jon ferro promised us a phone call if the bank of england raised rates, so we need to get jon ferro on the line with his sweatshirt or whatever it is he is wearing. we see the pound string thing after this decision, an 8-1 decision to raise benchmark interest rates. tom: of course, markets are reacting. we will go to george bory of wells fargo, but first, mark of ashworth on the turmoil. but we've got to go to caroline hyde. thrilled she is with us this morning. what this is interest rate increase mean for the people of the united kingdom? caroline: it means perhaps the bank of england isn't as fearful as anticipated. governor b

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. here is the price action. equities up 54 on the s&p, advancing 1.2%. this equity market has been all over the place. the nasdaq 100 advancing 1.3%. into the bond market, yields down, yields up, yields down, yields up. that is the story again this wednesday. loads up four basis points to 1.4834%. crude with a bounce up by 3.2%. euro-dollar, $1.13. blame mike mckee. payrolls around the corner. that next fed meeting, december 15. tom: we need to note the real yield has done nothing here as we await adp. jonathan: how much work to we need to do to tighten financial conditions? tom: we are so far away from the end of accommodation. we are so far away from that rare occurrence. restrictive as well. jonathan: lost all connection with any kind of meeting to what the word normal is. here's mike mckee. michael: good morning. we were trying to figure out exec you where the numbers come out, but they do add more jobs than we had in the prior month from adp. last month was 400 something. they have now revised it to 571. it

kailey: but tom keene is smiling because he loves the historical. we have seen a persistently flattened curve, and the financials are up 33% this year which of the best performing groups in the s&p 500. kriti: that is really where you see the massive macro disconnect. a lot of folks have been saying the stock market is taking their cue from the bond market, and they were earlier in the year. now you are starting to see that dispersion. if the bond market, even on a fundamental basis, is pricing and slower fundament of growth in 2022, or perhaps the effects of the omicron variant, the stock market is still hitting record high after record high. that is something that is not just isolated to financials, but in the broader market as well. matt: is this all built off of 2022 earnings expectations? kriti: it kind of seems like it is. in addition to operating margins, if you look at how much operating margins are a prediction in 2022, the consensus seems to be that those margins will continue, the a lot of these companies will be able to pass on those hig

jon: i miss tom too, that is the most tom keene thing you have said all year. apple is positive .4% in the free market. kailey: a huge weight in this equity market. let's bring in the ceo and cio at wynn crest capital. you talk about the outlook for u.s. stocks and how much of a very tech has on that. to bet against the u.s., do you have to bet against companies like apple? >> no. i think you just have to know there are better -- is better relative value elsewhere. looking at the s&p, this value has been concentrated. the joe, is there new towns, which, the company's other all-time highs, are far less interesting than the ones at the 52 we close. i would add to that, the u.s. has done so well but that means other places have done less well and to me there is more opportunity there. i prefer europe and some of asia and i think there are better opportunities there if you just want index-type performance. kailey: let's talk about the differences regionally and how central bank policy had to bearing. the fed is moving toward a hawkish stance and the ecp not so much

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the final week on the calendar for 2021. from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside katie lyons and matt miller, i am jonathan ferro. all-time highs back, even as we throw tighter monetary policy, omicron at this market. kailey: granted, it has just been creeping higher on really like volume, given it is a holiday week. we can debate whether the market should be open this week, but the market could be looking at a 69th record high. for whatever headwind you want at this market, it has not been enough. jonathan: just getting reporting out of the u.k., unexpected restrictions, the prime minister not expected to announce covid curbs in england. there was a feeling that, after christmas, they would announce them, but reporting suggesting that will not take place, at least right now. matt: what can you actually do when you are in england? if you want to go to dinner and a show in london, is that the easy task to undertake

but i know you like the spurs, or as tom keene would call them, the tots. do you have any thoughts you would like to share with our television and radio audience this morning? richard: well, any spurs fan out there will know that being a spurs fan is like being sisyphus. we get to the top of the hill and then we seem to roll back down. if new yorkers think it is hard being a mets fan, the spurs are -- on one's personal psyche. guy: i've got to say, 2-2 against liverpool, i thought it was a good game. it was a fairly controversial game. richard: he's a very good manager. we will see what happens. but that's the spurs story. there's always hope. we will see what happens. kailey: richard bernstein leaving us with a little bit of optimism in the sports world. thank you so much for joining us, and happy holidays to you and yours. there's also some breaking news we want to touch on. novavax's covid-19 vaccine has gotten a positive recommendation in the eu. it just days ago got the emergency from the world health organization, but that obviously giving a nice lift