lisa: comforting. jon: for so many people. lisa: not me. jon: how dare you keep lisa up. . >> with the first word news, the u.s. consumer price index coming out today is expected to show inflation climbed to 7% and would be the most since 1982 and would keep markets attention on a fed rate liftoff as soon as the policymaker's meeting. the c.p.i. data released 8:30 "new york times." meanwhile the federal reserve chair jerome pole is trying to ensure they can bring down the inflation without damaging the economy. the fed is not past reducing the balance sheet and raising rates. the rapid spread of the omicron variant led to a spike of the number of people missing work last week according to analysis for bloomberg news, employee absences rose 18% compared to the same period in 2021. in all it is estimated that 3.1 million brits were affected last week. in australia, novak djokovic has broken his silence and admitted he attended a newspaper interview and photo shoot last month when he knew he was infected with coronavirus and blames human error

tom: lisa, we have to stop the show. have you ever tried spam? lisa: i have, yes. are we done? tom: we are. lisa: focusing more on the fiscal side of the issue, amid fiscal talks, these myriad topics, voting rights is what president biden is spending his time on. chuck schumer is spending his time on voting rights although this law is unlikely to pass. why the focus? jack: political pressure. economic priorities stalled to such a degree that that is being set aside and will see if they can get back to that. voting rights is a high priority for the left flank of the democratic party. it was something the president was supposed to push hard on and it has been on the back burner. there is an opportunity for democrats to look elsewhere as billed back better gets set aside for a little bit. they want to try to have a vote that will lead them into a conversation about what kind of change, if any, can they make to the filibuster rules, which would have wide-ranging effects on all sorts of things. they want to have a showdown, including leading up to martin luther king day. the pressur

lisa had been dead for a couple of weeks. detective mike davison lay at his desk preparing subpoenas for the patterson case, when you took a call from the manager of a local burglar alarm company. he told detectives that one of the salesman have just gotten off the phone with the customer who had some questions about had home video surveillance system worked. the customer was scott patterson. the cops want to know more about something like this? detective davis said indeed, but he explained how he had been -- and check out that video set up, and noticed that want to pop the tray on the recorder, there was no dvt. no dvd, no pictures, right? well, detective david's almost fell off of a chair when he heard with the burglar man said next. >> he said, will you don't need one a road course to a hard drive. my mouth kind of just opened up. >> a hard drive. the doug talked and got a war intense went to the -- still untouched, in the garage. what a video festival the detective was about to have. >> this is july 2nd, 2009. this is loo

tom: can i -- lisa: yay. tom: i've got an answer. can i? lisa: tom keene. tom: if we come back and sustain and adam poses 3%, that's a problem. lisa: it is for rich guys for sure. we can go into all of those. jonathan: you see how many gloom scenarios that lisa has lined up? [laughter] lip i could -- lisa: i could keep us going. jonathan: i know. she keeps can rattling through them. up 16 on the s&p. lisa: joy. tom: oh, it's gloomy out. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden gave a blunt -- ukraine at a news conference. he expects vladimir putin to loosen after assembling 100,000 troops on the ukrainian beard. president biden says that nato allies are divided. now, president biden's bid to push votes to write legislation has collapsed. two key democrats brokered with their party to kill the bill's chances. the president says democrats may have to break up in order to get any part of it through congress. for the second straight months, banks in china have cut their borrowing costs. the one-year rate was decreased by 10 points to 3.7%. and americ

lisa: everyone is gloomy today. you started the year with a half glass full and now you are not anymore and a half glass empty over the next three to six months. you think the fed is mostly job owning. do you think that is what we have priced in for the markets and calibrated to clients rather than a complete wholesale reaction to the four rate hikes currently priced into the market, at least on the bond side? eric: what is being priced in is a lack of edge. in the last let's call it year, most of the focus was on earnings and tepid and decent growth. now you get to an environment and tear great coverage on ukraine and what you are seeing from central banks, a lack of edge. you get into what may happen across borders or how stringent the fed might be, those are more difficult things to forecast. i think it is fair to say this is winter. we need more communications from the fed about their intentions. we think over time the fed gets it. there is a productivity and demographic challenge. fed will likely remember it is

lisa: you are right. thank you for your time much more a a lisa: welcome back. just last week vice president harris had an interesting answer when asked about the biggest threat her country is facing. it seems she misheard the question and answered what she thinks the biggest threat facing democrats. >> it is our democracy. lisa: that democracy is a big threat? because by a judging the mishandling of every crisis over the past year and her current polling numbers, it is set to deal the party of 11 november. which is why make complete sense after the build back better act failure to pass congress the white house has turned back to voting rights legislation. in the same interview saying the united states will not be a role model of democracy and tell legislation is passed. >> right now we are about to take ourselves off the map as a role model. oliver washington dc which is part of the john lewis voting rights act. >> can we just take a step back and how ridiculous that statement is? first of all we will not be a role model for democracy if it is not pass essentia

lisa: we have to look at the data. if bank of america is expecting a contraction into still expecting the fed to hike rates seven times, which actually matters? it seems like it is focused on short-term inflation. jonathan: over the weekend, goldman sachs laid out a runway to give us a full understanding of what negative real rates mean for this equity market. lisa: david kostin came out and said it would be a 60 point move. this has been the trajectory of a lot of analysts' notes. jonathan: where are we in sports? [laughter] tom: the gloom therefrom lisa was like the gloom of the kansas city chiefs. jonathan: those overtime rules, tom -- what are they about? tom: if we do not have 60 minutes we will turn into a pumpkin. i think they ought to play an entire quarter. i do agree the roles and the flip of the coin seem so determinative. jonathan: lisa has something to say on tom brady. we are down a little more than a 10th of 1%. it has been ugly for the nasdaq. we are positive by 4/10 of 1%. 178 56. lisa: we have an incr

lisa: it feels like that. the number of cases have come down dramatically, so perhaps people are getting there isn't shopping on. jonathan: that is what it is -- their event shopping on. jonathan: that is what it is, revenge shopping? [laughter] lisa: i've noticed it as well, people getting a lot more crowded. jonathan: just to promote some guests earlier, we will be catching up with robert kronenberg. looking forward to that, alongside mohamed el-erian. that is going to be a really important conversation on emerging markets. don't miss that at around 9:30 eastern time. to run through the price action of the moment, down 33 on the s&p. down by almost 70, always 0.5%. jonathan: equities down, yields up to 1.8355%. with lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. for our audience worldwide, on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: given those apple numbers after the close yesterday, this is probably not the move you were looking for. we are down about zero point 3% on the nasdaq. the s&p w

lisa: it's painful. jon: it's ironic to me the people going after the federal reserve are also the people that have been doing trading themselves. the market moves we have seen over the last couple years are not just all down to the federal reserve. we had a monetary policy response from congress as well. when speaker pelosi was asked about whether people in congress should have access to markets in the same way, your average joe does, she responds we are a free market economy and they should be able to participate. i think that is slightly ironic, don't you? that these are the guys going after the federal reserve. tom: i just retooled my 401(k). am i guilty because all of the stuff i learned on this program? mi front running "bloomberg surveillance" because i went from schiphol leverage into all-cash and took a 2% leverage exposure? jon: some people say you face tighter restrictions then you would in congress as a journalist. tom: i do. there is no question. as one example, i have a handshake agreement

lisa: dear lord. jonathan: dow futures down. ♪ ♪ >> there is a lot on for the market to digest. >> the fed is more likely to be responsive to credit conditions than they are to the s&p 500. >> i think the outlook for the balance of the year is a bit more constructive. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -->> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down by 1.3% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, we are down by almost 2%. tom: a different character to yesterday before the fun and festivities of dow 1000. part of it is getting earnings.

lisa: you don't. we are going to be heading back into this low inflation and the growth experiment -- and low growth environment. this is a key debate at the time when a trajectory for the fed funds rate goes from 3% to 4% to the rest of wall street -- wall street 1.75%. tom: we need a 50 year auction next week. can we do that? lisa: sure. tom: that worked out for me. talk about price down coming yield up. thank you, austria. stay with us, an infantile day after ppi. we move on to the brainerd conversation the senate banking committee later today. on radio and television, we say good morning with futures advance income up 11. the vix, 17.80. good morning. ♪ and there you have it. woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. big deal. we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, but mine has 5g included. relax people. my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. take the savings challenge at

lisa: a very similar issue. tom: we have our leisurely morning in london because we start different. it is barclays old gorges headquarters. it is gone. they are in receivership. jonathan: i know it well. tom: we tell them from jersey we are to mcdonald's in liverpool. a basic cup of coffee is eight dollars. jonathan: is net worth it -- isn't it worth it? ♪ jonathan: the last time we did this back on december 15, the nasdaq finished higher by more than 2%, and in the minutes came out and they basically told you the opposite of everything you were told in the news conference and the nasdaq finished down. futures positive, 1.3 on the s&p, the nasdaq up by 2%. the equity picture, heroes -- here is the bond market story. two year yields up 30 basis points, a big move. yields higher again by a couple basis points. it is always going to be about the rate hike conversation. we need to about balance sheet reduction -- we need you talk -- we need to talk about balance sheet reduction. topped out just short of 160 last

lisa: help other people make money. which be buying the dip we have seen, particularly in tech stocks, in the nasdaq in particular? barry: it is very early in whatever sort of correction we are having. my guess is what we are really going through is the market wrapping its head around rising rates and adjusting to that. we knew it was coming eventually. for a long time it looked like two years in the future. now it is two months in the future. that is part of this. keep in mind we have had an amazing run, not just since the pandemic lows. the past decade has seen spectacular double digit growth of the s&p 500 based on record fundamentals. everybody wants the spread of the fed. look at the earnings growth over the past 12 years. it has been spectacular, not counting the pandemic. the market has had a brief run based on fundamentals and it looks like this will be a pause to digest the gains. this does not spell at the end of the bull market. tom: breaking news. barry ritholtz, thank you for perspective on netflix. united

lisa: i appreciate that. tom: she documents our every step. jonathan: lisa, you would be ok with this, just letting everyone know what you tell us in the brakes, wouldn't you? lisa: would you be ok with that? [laughter] jonathan: tk, sorry for you, tom your s&p is down 1.8%. the nasdaq is down 2.5 percent. yields aren't doing much on tens, about 1.7654%. crude unchanged, $83.18. tom: i did not know who giselle was. i learned something with damian today. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the kremlin warns that the u.s. decision to put 8500 troops on alert for deployment in eastern europe exacerbates tensions. the biden administration says if the troops are sent overseas, they would help nato forces in the region. more than 100,000 russian troops have been deployed near the border with ukraine. moscow denies it is planning an invasion. more problems for british prime and is a boris johnson over allegations of those wall breaking -- those lawbreaking parties during the pandemic. police are now investigating the claims

lisa: what is the party line? glenn youngkin won the virginia governor race a couple months ago and a lot of people were saying it was because of the education issue. so what are the partisan lines here? annmarie: democrats and the white house certainly are pushing for schools to remain open and so are republicans for the most matter. republicans say that they want all freedoms back in the open, they want students to maintain in school. the issue is how you go about it. most democrats would say let's make sure most students and teachers are completely masked. a lot of republicans have pushed back for that. democrats with support vaccine mandate for those universities while you are likely not going to get that kind of rhetoric from the gop. jonathan: quickly, novak, what is the latest? isn't this the biggest issue in world politics right now? annmarie: it is the first thing i checked this morning. i believe the latest is that the judge has set you can leave his quarantine, but the australian government is saying th

lisa: you are right. thank you for your time much thank you for your time much more a a on ancestry i discovered more about my great-great-grandfather baptiste caretto. ancestry threads all of the little facts together into a narrative so you get to feel like you're walking the same path they did. one of my favorite supplements is qunol turmeric. together into a narrative so you get to feel like turmeric helps with healthy joints and inflammation support. unlike regular turmeric supplements qunol's superior absorption helps me get the full benefits of turmeric. the brand i trust is qunol. >> woman: what's my safelite story? >> vo: my car is more than four wheels. it's my after-work decompression zone. so when my windshield broke... >> woman: what?! >> vo: ...i searched for someone who really knew my car. i found the experts at safelite autoglass. with their exclusive technology, they fixed my windshield... then recalibrated the camera attached to my glass so my safety systems still work. who knew that was

lisa: i think it comes back to lisa's comment about being corrupted. [laughter] it is not yield curve. it is not just the yield curve that has been corrupted. it is all financial assets. you look at the price appreciation we had over the last couple of years. you would say nothing could justify that except for the fact that we have had trillions of dollars poured into the economy thanks to both fed and policymakers. markets now need to correct to some level of normalcy, and that is what we are seeing. we are in a transition phase now. our view on risk assets is a little bit more cautious. we have spoken about that on this show over the past couple of months. when you get valuations in the bottom quartile and the bottom decile in november, you have to be a bit more cautious in your approach to risk taking. that is where we are. we look at all in treasury yields right now and say they offer a little bit value. the market is discounting a lot. in terms of the said, maybe we could go further, but we think we are a lot of the way there at this point. we are

lisa, crude, 86.56. lisa: a report this morning basically saying they expect demand to exceed pre-pandemic levels as everybody goes back out. how does that factor into inflation? bank of america is expecting around six: 45, morgan stanley around 7:30 a.m. eastern time. the focus very much on expenses. jp morgan and yesterday, goldman sachs. huge gains going into this year, at the beginning of this year. people take a look at these expenses and they say wait a second, revenues are growing as quickly and wait a second to your question earlier, the staying power is the beginning of an opening salvo of wage increases. the concern here is that people are seeing huge market shortage of housing and have not been able to build in certain areas. we are expecting permits to come down as a result of some of these southern states. 4:00 p.m., president biden is planning his first congress of the year, only the second since he took office. i'm very curious how he deals with oil prices. we were just talking about that.

lisa: a very different phase of the pandemic. the big question for 70 people is how long can china and others retain these zero covid policies in the face of an endemic virus that you cannot stop by closing your borders. jonathan: we started the week with eurasia group. the zero covid effort of china, the zero covid effort of hong kong will fail. that is their big call for this year. tom: it runs into our bloomberg world. the basic idea is will we see some form of fiscal drag that may be diminishes economic growth into 2022? what i have heard in the conversations, including with ian bremmer, is the jury is out. there is great uncertainty about how this pandemic story fulton into what we see across equities, bonds, currency, and commodities. jonathan: and what it means for supply chains with china and hong kong living in 2020 and the trying to get back to work. before we go through the equity market we need to talk about the value/growth split. lisa: the biggest gap between value and growth going back to 1995. 1.5% gap. it is too

lisa: welcome back. just last week vice president harris had an interesting answer when asked about the biggest threat her country is facing. it seems she misheard the question and answered what she thinks the biggest threat facing democrats. >> it is our democracy. lisa: that democracy is a big threat? because by a judging the mishandling of every crisis over the past year and her current polling numbers, it is set to deal the party of 11 november. which is why make complete sense after the build back better act failure to pass congress the white house has turned back to voting rights legislation. in the same interview saying the united states will not be a role model of democracy and tell legislation is passed. >> right now we are about to take ourselves off the map as a role model. oliver washington dc which is part of the john lewis voting rights act. >> can we just take a step back and how ridiculous that statement is? first of all we will not be a role model for democracy if it is not pass essentia

i like lisa and i like tom a little. i like lisa a lot. [laughter] jonathan: if you missed the conversation yesterday, a straight years of double gains. lisa: everybody seems to be bullish, threading a needle. possible acceleration of rate hikes the result of omicron and at the same time you're expecting the s&p to continue its rally potentially even in a double digit year, how do you get these different pieces to move together at a time when there are potential risks and yet everybody is bullish. jonathan: lisa, tom keene, jonathan ferro. futures up 20. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> at&t and verizon say they've agreed to a two week delay on the 5g deployment by u.s. authorities. they proved yesterday to go with her new services. officials fear the 5g signals might interfere with aircraft equipment. united arab emirates on the risk of getting on a list for not doing enough about money laundering and terrorist financing. the financial action task force leaning towards adding the country to its gray list which would be a big step given their pos

lisa: what is being priced in already? we see so much good news priced into so many of these cyclical stocks. over the past 12 months, where do we see the upside from here? does it come from rate hikes were lending or trading? these are some of the issues. jonathan: i didn't expect to start the morning on u.k. gdp. tom: its 18 leaf against the gloom that is out there. jonathan: futures are up on the s&p 500. advancing 0.04%. we've got to move again with yield higher by 4%. euro-dollar had a look at 115. lisa: this is the most fascinating parlor game is whether the dollar heading into it year where the fed will diverge from other market banks and raise rates. the big story today will be earnings. i think this is the most important. j.p. morgan is kicking things off and that's followed up by wells fargo at seven and citigroup at 8 a.m. what is being priced in? citigroup has been the underperformer over the past 12 months. they are focused on cost cutting and how much as well fargo -- wells fargo been able to reshape their do

jonathan ferro, with tom and lisa abramowicz -- with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tens at 1.64 20%. this headline from a u.k. spokesperson. "nothing in the covid data shows that more curbs are needed." that was the feeling coming out of 2021 into 2022. that was the direction of travel for the british government. tom: let's rip up the script here. there's a two day test, a five day test, and a pcr test. is it you're reading that prime minister johnson will move away from the certitude of a pcr tests over to a more antigen test? jonathan: that i don't know. i can tell you that rapid tests are more easily accessible in the u.k. than, say, new york city right now. i shared this experience with our audience last week. it was as simple as going on a website, entering your address, and then getting sent a pack of seven rapid tests the following day in the u.k. that is how easy it was. i am reflecting on a press conference with the press secretary who very starkly said, what would you like us to do, send everyone a rapid test? that is precisely what has been happening ever

lisa: the omicron -- amb. etienne: the omicron variant had a strong surge recently, and we hope it is now having its peak. as a consequence in terms of intensive care units, the consequences were not that serious as before. people mentioned it a lot and the new vaccination past is coming into force today. there was a strong policy in france to have everybody vaccinated and i think it worked quite well. tom: because of time and the market we must move on. thank you very much. ambassador of france to the united states. i had to get that in there as we plan out the surveillance trip to france for the election. lisa: hopefully we can do a road trip. there's been such a patchwork of recovery in the european union and a patchwork of potential response to the potential cutting off of the gas supply if that becomes an issue. tom: please stay with us this morning on radio and television. markets on the move. the vix well above 32. nasdaq, -1.5% this morning. please stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomber

lisa: [laughter] jonathan: i think it is safe to say lisa might be struggling a little bit. i will come and rescue you and bring you back in a week or so. up to tens of 1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> an assortment of different labor market metrics continue to drive home the point that the market is tight. >> you are seeing messy dynamics. >> the fed has to do a better job telling us what they are thinking, how they are thinking. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your market up seven on the s&p. we will catch up with priya misra of td. she said, has it only been a week? is this really just the first week? what a week it has been. tom: there really is true.

lisa, what his wordle? lisa: it is a game where you guess five letters and it tells you whether you are correct or not. i find it incredibly entertaining if you have covid or if you are in the emergency room with a child who broke a bone. wordle really is wonderful. it is a website. [laughter] jonathan: tom, have you seen the mentions to that game over the weekend? every time i opened twitter, that is all that was there. tom: i was so upset, and it is confirmed this morning, thank you to the general and who confirmed what i observed. coffee at mcdonald's skyrockets to $0.87. jonathan: i love the transition there, tom. we are talking inflation with emily wilkins. senior. i don't get wordle. emily, do you get wordle? emily: i absolutely get wordle. how else what i post an annoying great of squares on my twitter? tom: emily wilkins joined us, excellent on wordle, and also what the biden administration will do one inflation. a cover article this morning about inflation. all this is is a blame game. there is no

lisa: [laughter] jonathan: new year, same story. lisa: same story. i wonder if getting covid counts as an occupation. can we chalk that up to community building? jonathan: people are exhausted, big time. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. the s&p is up one third of 1%. coming up, credit suisse is looking for 5200 on the s&p 500 this year. that is 20 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: at&t and verizon have agreed to a two week delay. the carriers agreed to launch many services. that was in defiance of officials who say that 5g signals might interfere with aircraft electronics, posing a safety risk. top supplier russia -- slows. 10% extending monday rally. russian supplies say -- after dropping yesterday to their lowest since february. chris redfield is in talks with investors to raise more capital according to a person with knowledge of the matter. it came after -- the capital management declined to comment. united arab emirates is said to be risk of getting on at risk -- a list of countries not doing enough to combat money launderi

lisa: 4:00 p.m. we will hear from him and his narrative on how to look at inflation, how to view the economy. they have tried this before. they have said the economy is growing, wages are increasing. and yet when people go to the gas pump, someone that is outside the purview of his control, as we have seen, how do they deal with that? jonathan: trying to change the way people feel about something is really difficult. we can talk about the data all day, talk about where employment is, but trying to change how people feel about the economy is tough. tom: i was sliding home yesterday after my four hour work day, and there was a shell gas station, small, new york city, marked up. i get it. i looked at their fancy led screen and said, what does five dollars a gallon like? what does the nation do when we get to five dollars a gallon gas? jonathan: what was the number? tom: the fancy stuff was four dollars 62 four cents, maybe -- was $4.64, maybe. what if we get to five dollars in oklahoma city? jonathan: l

lisa, there is an auction today. do i care? lisa: you care because it is three-year bonds. it is fascinating to me. all of the auctions owing forward to going to be pretty interesting because we have the federal reserve that is going to be buying more bonds. they are still expanding their balance sheet. not only that, but you are having 3, 4 rate hikes getting back into the assumption for the united states this year. how about 2023? this is the issue, of do they go faster at the beginning and then stop, or do they continue with aggressive rate hikes as the likes of bill dudley would perhaps like to see? tom: right now, brent schutte gets us started right now, with northwestern mutual. short-term is five years. forget about short term. let's bring it in big time to a three year perspective. what is the three year perspective given the cacophony right now? brent: i think in the near term, the market has likes to go higher. i know we are going through this painful rotation, which has always been a question of ours. can you actually deflate some parts of the market without caus

lisa: spoken like a true husband. jonathan: that is what i hear, that giselle has had to give up a lot of her career in the last 10 years, and tom needs to get home and do some of the family work. lisa: is the market environment so uncertain that you would rather bet on sports, you would rather that on football outcomes? damian: look at this volatility. the best risk-adjusted bets are in -- assets, sports being one of them. we could talk about the brazil elections. right, let's talk about giselle. jonathan: let's do that. damian sassower, as always. -- 'bramo says there is something going on in this market. there is. conditioned maybe by the massive turnaround yesterday. lisa, you don't know what to make of this anymore. lisa: you don't know which direction is going to go, but you get the sense that people are just searching for the narrative to guide them right now. jonathan: trying to look around corners. really focused on downside risk. tens at 1.77 percent. yields unchanged. coming up shortly, geoff yu of bny mell

lisa: maybe not. jonathan: the more you talk about in markets, the more you talk about the federal reserve doing 5, 6, seven, the less achievable it becomes because the market does the talking. lisa: i keep going back to credit and credit not necessarily being a leading indicator. if credit does selloff the fed will have more of a put for credit. that is a compelling idea that we've not seen them price in seven rate hikes in the credit world. jonathan: coming up in about an hour, a fascinating conversation. top down with mohamed el-erian, bloomberg opinion columnist and gramercy funds chairman, alongside robert cummings burke. if you want to hear about ef, we will do that in about an hour. new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: the u.s. is bracing for a powerful snowstorm. boston and new england are expected to take the brunt of it, getting up to 16 inches of snow. washington, the new jersey coast, new york city -- travel is likely to be amassed. the storm is thought to intense so rapidly it could

lisa: that is the issue. it is how much is it worthwhile for foreigners to come in if you have a weaker dollar kind of call. pgim fixed income coming in and saying they do see value right now, given the fact that the cs going back to a low-inflation. tom: could you see lisa on a cruise ship doing at auction discussion at 10:00 a.m.? jonathan: i could see lisa anywhere without us. are you saying that is what is going to happen on this cruise? tom: absolutely. auctions with lisa. jonathan: is this a barge with the capacity of about 50 people? who is going to turn up for this? tom: we've got four pools. jonathan: are we paying people to come? tom: they pay us. jonathan: ok. [laughter] anastasia, roso -- anastasia amoroso, the chief investment strategist at icapital. how tough will that be? anastasia: i think the markets are increasingly pricing this in. the markets are really just waiting for this, and i just don't think it is going to be that hard. tom: within the equity markets, there has to be a catalyst. wha

tom keene, lisa abramowicz man jonathan ferro. in the next hour, we will hear from brian deese i'm about -- in about 20 minutes time. this is bloomberg. >> so from that standpoint, there's a big expansion in capacity. infrastructure, we all sort of seen how far we can stretch the envelope. ♪ >> they break something when they raise rates too much. >> it will start to rise this year. >> the market is only pricing in a few rate hikes in 2023. >> they have more difficulty hiking rates more than the market believes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this hour, we hear from the white house, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market bouncing back. tom: the white house, 15 minutes away. the gentleman talking about build back better. i believe inflation front and center and that is the study here as we go to the fed

the geo politics of this one, lisa, just fascinating. lisa: europe very much front and center. and they're struggling with the fact that they do rely on russia for a lot of their natural gas, inputted at times when gas prices have been would be the inflation drivers. record paces across the euroregion. how does the united states then really create some serious sanctions on russia if it crimps oil supply to their biggest ally, europe? jonathan: the administration is in a really tough spot. there are some things they can do. many others that they just can't at all. tom: the complexity are foreign and it's always there for any administration. what i think we didn't touch on is president biden go back to his first principle foundations. and that is speaking to the american people about domestic challenges that the government can help with. and that is infrastructure and that's the common ground for him. i am dumbfounded that he hasn't taken an infrastructure-centered approach. it's old school but joe biden's old school. jonathan: we heard a lot about it in the news conference. they

lisa: it is all in expectations. physically, you have seen a repricing in stocks, but you have not seen wholesale repricing and credit you do seen some repricing, but not too quite the same extent. what ed was saying was that you will see it as the fed takes action. so do people get ahead of it? i think you asked the right question. why not get ahead of it if you really believe that? jonathan: of course it is based on expectations, but this is why , often and frequently over the last 10 years, the more this market prices and of the fed, the less the fed can actually deliver. you see it time and time again. the forecast on the street above and beyond what the fed ended up delivering. tom: it is an overlay of it is time to visit off of the pandemic, but also the natural disaster that is this pandemic. what do we do if we get a constructive overlay of omicron on all of this gloom about higher rates? i don't think anybody has a clue. i certainly don't. jonathan: you will catch up with a senior u.s. economist at morgan st

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. futures down 0.2 percent on the s&p, down 40 on the nasdaq 100. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news , i'm ritika gupta. more signals that the fed is set to raise interest rates in the coming months. president biden spec for vice chair of the central bank lael brainard told a senate hearing that rates could be increased as early as march. fed governor crist for waller said that three rate hikes this year would be a good baseline. for a second time, australia has canceled the visa of novak djokovic. the immigration mr. overrode a court ruling that temporarily prevented them from deporting the tennis star. a new study out today on the omicron variant from south africa, where it was first detected. researchers say omicron causes less severe disease and the delta strain even in those who are unvaccinated or have not had a prior covid infection. that adds to evidence that while omicron is more infectious, maybe less harmful than

lisa: there is so much. it is also geopolitical concerns . 7:30 goldman sachs releases their earnings. a trading story. we heard about their oil unit and how much they earned. they have been behind other financials, and even as they outperform, they have not managed to deliver the same kind of return. how much are they going to say there lending unit is gaining traction at a time when yields are rising in the consumer is trying to borrow more? at 8:30 we are getting the interview with bill winters. the interesting thing about standard chartered is the vast majority of its business is in emerging markets, which is underperformed over the last year and people are wondering what is the outlook, especially with china, at the same time they are cutting rates. it'll be interesting to see the opportunities that arise from that. eddie: 30 a.m. we get the empire manufacturing survey for january. the expectation is some insight on supply chain disruption. the feeling is we are starting to see the peak and perhaps thin

lisa: some people are saying it is before that. even if there are negative news points, there still can be a sustained selloff. i still keep going back to the technical aspect of the selloff, the fact that corporations have been selling debt at an incredible clip this year. you've seen italy selling 30 year bonds today. everyone is trying to get in while the going is good. how much is this affecting a market that still has not gotten fully up and running with people on the beach, but probably at home with a cough. tom: i agree with that. there is a tradition that the year starts may be the wednesday after new year's. i would suggest five years ago, eight years ago that changed in the vicinity of january 15, when we are supposed to be in switzerland at the meetings of the world economic forum. i take the point that the year has not started and maybe it is mid-january. lisa: you mentioned davos, you mentioned europe. anyone watching who has not been following. i am not in paris. we are broadcasting remotely because of omicron. i am i

maria: -- lisa: it is actually very nuanced. george saravelos talked about it saying that the inflation we are seeing could be contractionary and if the fed doesn't act, the economy will slow much more than people are expecting. how much are you seeing people not spent because they are concerned about how high prices have gone? sarah: i think we have certainly seen that in some of the buy-in plans for big ticket purchases. if you look at eight michigan survey, you see the plan for homes and durables cratered. when you dig into the reasons, it is not so much households being worried about finances but it is the share price. we are seeing this inflation canonize some of those and it is one of the factors leading us to expect more trend like pace of consumer spending which will offer relief on the inflation picture but it will be more towards the back half of the year and then looking at an environment of inflation well above where the fed wants it to be. the nature of this -- lisa: the nature of this is becoming more perilous. wor

lisa: i think you are right. however, i think a lot of people are uncertain, and you can see people trying to hedge against this upside, which is the reason why people are so underweight bonds versus stocks the most going back to 2011. jonathan: jamie dimon says 5%, 6%, 7%. over what timeframe, i am not sure. the guy is a genius, that everyone was talking about that and they weren't talking about expenses after that call. yields up three basis points on tens. in the commodity market, we will talk a -- talk a whole lot more about this one, 88 on brent. lisa: let's see if goldman sachs can complete the same patrick in talking more about his outlook. would goldman sachs comes out with earnings, we are going to be looking at compensation. we are going to be looking at expenses, at the same time we are expecting a really big boon for their trading and banking sectors. how much are they benefiting from the rising rate environment versus some of their peers? they are outperforming on a one-year basis based on the s&p 50

lisa: can you elaborate on that? can you elaborate on which moves they made that you think in retrospect were big mistakes? jeffrey: two were three things. they hamstrung themselves by placing them under this tactical constraint of giving the market a huge amount of notice before they started tapering. jay powell said we are not talking about talking about tapering. that means we have to talk about it. i think that delayed their reaction and they felt compelled to go through this steady margin releasing discussions and they put on the constraints they will not raise rates until they stop purchases. that set them back materially. you can see around august and september they realized they needed to start raising rates. they could have done it in october and november but they were on this tapering thing. the second thing is the way they think about maximum employment. they think of it as 3.5% unemployment in the labor force participation rate backup to trend. i think that cause them to misinterpret inflation in the firs

lisa: financial markets have to cooperate. does that mean another taper tantrum, or to build at least point, is the fed put dead? rj: the fed put his farther out then it historically has been. i think the fed is not looking to tank markets, but they are certainly looking, and they always do monitor the provision of capital and the price of that capital in the economy. at this point they need those variables to ratchet back a little bit. it is hard to do so artfully without potentially causing a disruption, but that does not prevent them from attempting to have a softer landing and financial conditions. right now they are too stimulative in the economy, and inflation is too hot. lisa: i am looking at credit markets, which have been one of the tools of transmission of said policy, and i am looking at yields on investment grade bonds of about 2.5%, a little bit north of that. they have come up quite a bit, but still so far below what people think the end rate for inflation may be. kind of credit disruption are you expecting if th

lisa, where you want to start? lisa: i want to talk about the empire manufacturing index, it was hugely disappointing. it was expected to increase, it actually decreased. it declined almost 1%. this is a read on the omicron disruption, the labor market shortages come on supply chain, on inflation, all the issues people have shrugged off. tom: may be liz ann sonders with the chart of the morning. the idea of how slow restaurants were in 2020. restaurants recovered and liz ann showing they rolled over and the last couple of weeks, that goes into the economic call. lisa: is not surprising given the fact that semi people had covid in so many people were able to show up for work. i keep going back to the ellen zentner call. will some of these disruptions accelerate fed action? will they be prompted to heighten -- to hike rates sooner and tighten policy more because it is leading to inflation and more labor shortages which is pushing up wages? to me that is the uncomfortable narrative emerging. tom: we are slaves for dat

lisa: are you making this up? is it real? tom: you want to know what is real, the letter f is in the correct position. surveillance wordle. jonathan: do i have to come in tomorrow? futures up 0.1%. cpi 35 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. >> it is important that the fed has pivoted and changed direction and the market is handling that quite well. >> this repricing still has a lot of room to go. >> we do think omicron is going to impact earnings. >> i think the market has legs to go higher. >> it

tom: lisa, give us the whisper number, please. lisa: 500,000. tom: thank you. we go to the jobs report a 500,000 as the whisper number. right now, we go to whether girl annmarie hordern in washington. let's start with the president, four days ago on the runway for 36 minutes. the snow was so much that air force one had to sit on the runway. now another blizzard hits washington. what do the politicians do on a snowy day in washington? annmarie: another blizzard hits washington, so they say. i have yet to see snow flurries, but that did not stop a message coming out that the federal government will be shut. as a new yorker, i have to say, i am a little bit shocked on how washington deals with the snow. when it snows and the roads have to get plowed, it is hours before that happens, and the other day it was complete lockdown and shut down. when i arrive at the white house by noon, even the white house driveway was not plowed yet. that gives you a little bit of a sense of how washington deals with the snow, not the way the efficiency of where you're sitting in manh

jonathan: lisa, was that a pocket of joy for you? lisa: i am absolutely overwhelmed. it is just overflowing. jonathan: that's the cross has had price action. let's get you the movers with romaine. romaine: you always have that line in the sand people start to look for. what brings the dip buyers back in for the nasdaq? it appeared to be around the 200 a moving average. we had that around the session noon yesterday. we saw is sniffed into rebound off the lows of the day basically unchanged. tesla was really indymac of that. it was down almost 5% -- was really emblematic of that. it was down on was 5%. finished the day higher by 1%. amd higher by about 2% in the premarket, getting an upgrade at keybanc. some constructive commentary about some of the supply chain issues. flip up the board. you talk about some of the other movers out there. intel showing a lot of strength today, up 1.5%. a new cfo, the cfo from micron is going to jump ship over to intel. some analysts are concerned about this. they say while the new cfo is great, much of the problems are not really about

lisa and i are oblivious to this. how they blast moments ago out with a spectacular chart showing energy prices in europe led by france and germany, with very high prices. jonathan: this raises the question, just how united nato members are on any response to russia. tom: it's got to come together. , wrong to say that united will happen under crisis events. jonathan: there's been this talk for a while that this german franco leadership will emerge on foreign policy it, and it has not happened yet. it is still the u.k. leading the way. tom: stronger swiss franc. jonathan: it is out there. [laughter] if you are on radio, you needed to tk count. you just did. if you get back into the office, you know where we are. yields up to 1.73% on tens. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. state department is warning of what it calls a continued threat of russian military action in ukraine, it is ordered family members to leave the country, and says conditions could get w

lisa? lisa: wow, that's it is a hard question, i think. i think the moment that i, that was the most shocking to me was when i left that area, because there were more rioters coming in and i needed to get a second piece of equipment and i wanted to make sure that i was safe. but when i left that area and i went to the house chamber and i was going to where my desk is, which is near the house chamber, and i remember thinking in my head, ok, i know where the police are stationed there. there are four police officers in that next hallway. i'm going to see those police officers. i've got my mask on. i'm holding up my badge to show them that i'm with the press. and-and i'm going to be in a good position right there. and i'll find out, maybe they'll tell me something. as i made my way to that area right outside the house chamber, you know, starting to hold up my badge to show them. and there are no police officers there. no, there's no one there. and i was alone. that was, that is probably, that's a moment that i think i'll remember a lot, the a

[laughter] lisa: thank you. tom: it is about the sine waves, the signals you get off of radio antenna. the gigahertz of 5g nicely dovetails closely with altimeters. helane becker joins us now, managing director at cowen. we are going to lose formula like -- boeing is saying this is important. is anybody listening? helane: i think the airlines are. it is kind of interesting that you bring this up because i did a crash course in this in december to figure out what this was all about, and what you are saying is accurate. in europe and the u.k., where this has already been implemented, the implementation levels are at a lower level than they are in the u.s. that is a big difference. the cell towers in the u.k. are turned away from the runways, and apparently what you just said is completely accurate. as an airplane is approaching the runway, the signal from the cell tower interferes with the readings the pilots are getting. on a blue sky day, that is not a problem because the pilot can see the runway and can see whe

lisa: what about in germany? is there discussion about how to reduce reliance on russia for some oil and gas that has been such a huge issue, not only for germany but with relations in the european union? >> with the germans will say is that every possible sanction is on the table including nord stream 2. ever since crimea was annexed illegally by russia there have been no sanctions. some would say it's not just nord stream 2, they should look at nord stream 2 1. the perception -- nord stream1 . for many germans they don't get the view perceived at times that they are soft on russia. they feel that the diplomatic way is always the best way. they say given our recent history in this country still has a very large war guilt in terms of everything that happened in the second world war, they don't want to be seen as aggressive or military in any way. in their view they are doing this the right way to try to de-escalate and do with the diplomatic way instead. jonathan: it is incredibly difficult to unite europe. let's