that russia annexed, occupied and annexed crimea more than eight years ago. very warm welcome to the program. let me start by asking you really about crimea, given it's your area of expertise, and you are so familiar with it. like we said, annexed by russia in 2014, we hear very little in fact, what, about what's happening. give us a sense of what you have been hearing on the ground? >> well, hello. yes, indeed. actually, crimea was occupied by if russian federation eight years ago and it's important to consider when we try to assess the situation there. because after eight years, it's, especially after the all out aggression of the russian federation against ukraine started it became hard to get information from the inside, from inside the peninsula. however, we get this information from open sources but also from our insiders, so to say. and i would point out two immaj trends. first, the militarization, means that russia turned crimea in to a military base to launch the offensive against mainland ukraine, which is really dramatic. i think. but on the other

, but to absorb the whole province of crimea. will city as well as the city of sylvester poetry. me, which has a special status. ah laptops you and to make them both subjects of the russian federation seed to levy does the best of both guests that she speaks yet. a doll fair do sushi de la c dash o in response to crimea, annexation, members of the g 7, imposed harsh sanctions against putting and russia manhattan guns under ignition them. it is ation that us to this lily. the russians hadn't expected the west to react, so united lee and decisively for clayton in russia that leading representatives often asked me why you of old people, that you should understand that we feel humiliated images, not them. you yourselves were humiliated after world war one lies. but that's not a good historical comparison. gotta the comparison is precisely a country with such a difficult history as germany must stand up resolutely for the law to be upheld mas. that's why the message that had to be sent was a red line has been reached. i know here in i

me got those, the likely annexation of crimea. the action from don boston, so on, certainly fed these spheres size and so that they became stronger. it is that i hear but beat the really thine is the navy sitting in blue, france and germany will question marks. but in the past, ukraine had always been able to look to the united states for support when september 2019 chrislynn soleski made his 1st official trip to the us to give his inaugural speech at the united nations in new york. thank you very much. i was just almost need you then res, vomiting zivare more visit near my year to enjoy the me new storm last night. most of which one does have miss betsy glee. davy, not greatly did he not you wrong, but his visit was overshadowed by the scandal engulfing venue as president donald trump, in which he played a big part. it hinged on a phone call between the 2 men, 2 months before in july 2019 or in the called trump asked ukraine to investigate his democratic rival, joe biden, and his son hunter. if ukraine refused us 8 would be withh

and lin immediately proceeded with not only to annex crimea, but to absorb the whole province of crimea, will city as well as the city, as the last appointed me, which has a special status ah laptops you and to make them both subjects of the russian federation, seed to levy does the best of both guests that she speaks yet a doll fair do sushi de la c dash o in response to crimea, annexation members of the g 7, imposed harsh sanctions against hooting and russia. manhattan guns under ignition them. it is ation that just a vis lily. the russians hadn't expected the west to react. so united lee and decisively and forgotten for clayton in russia that leading representatives often asked me why you of all people that you should understand that we feel humiliated emerge is nothing you yourselves were humiliated after world war one gleiss. but that's not a good historical comparison. gotta the comparison is precisely a country with such a difficult history as germany flood must stand up resolutely for the law to be upheld most. that's why the message that had to be sent was a red line has been r

allen lan immediately proceeded not only to annex crimea, but to absorb the whole province, have crimea, or city as well as the city, as the last to point to me, which has a special status. ah, laptops you and to make them both subjects of the russian federation see de la villette. does he best the boy care that to be seen? a doll fair do sushi de larry dash shortly in response to crimea annexation members of the g 7, imposed harsh sanctions against putting and russia manhattan guns under ignition them. it is ation that us to this lily. the russians hadn't expected the west to react, so united lee and decisively for clayton in russia, there were leading representatives often asked me why you of all people that you should understand that we feel humiliated images, not them. you yourselves were humiliated after world war one lies, but that's not a good historical comparison garden. the comparison is precisely a country with such a difficult history as germany must stand up resolutely for the law to be upheld. that's why the message that had to be sent was a red line has been reached. i kn

and joining russia was led to and crimea was annexed. we were so happy we thought we could be annexed to me. my friends, every one we kept thinking that russia was going to take us back to get a good many in ukraine feared exactly that. that coaching would go even further, who i knew what they could do. the same thing that they did with crimea will objectively they have enough resources for that, that the western alliance, meanwhile, was stymied enough. newsome employee those in c h s, u. and there we found ourselves in a completely new situation. schiff duly thought, who, where the russian head of state had basically made choices for the great country of ukraine, and try to keep its president in place of got any price. can you kind e at the county. alton lan immediately proceeded not only to annex crimea, but to absorb the whole province, have crimea, or city as well as the city, as the last appointed me, which has a special status. ah laptops you and to make them both subjects of the russian federation, c de la villette. does he best t

— think it is focused primarily on crimea and donbas? not the whole of ukraine, crimea and donbas? not the whole of ukraine. the — crimea and donbas? not the whole of ukraine, the ultimate _ crimea and donbas? not the whole of ukraine, the ultimate goal _ crimea and donbas? not the whole of ukraine, the ultimate goal would i crimea and donbas? not the whole of ukraine, the ultimate goalwould be l ukraine, the ultimate goal would be to cut ukraine from the red sea. they have already —— much from the black sea. further to 0desa. i do not think he will achieve that by the victory day on the 9th of may and he wants to present a victory to the russian population through his propaganda channels but it is key it might clear mariupol is the main point no through donbas.- might clear mariupol is the main point no through donbas. there is talk of world _ point no through donbas. there is talk of world war _ point no through donbas. there is talk of world war iii _ point no through donbas. there is talk of world war iii and - point no through donbas. there is talk of world war iii and t

allen lan immediately proceeded not only to annex crimea, but to absorb the whole province have crimea, will city as well as the city as the last to poetry me, which has a special status. ah, laptops you and to make them both subjects of the russian federation see de la villette. does he best the boy care that to be seen? a doll fair do sushi de larry dash shortly in response to crimea annexation members of the g 7, imposed harsh sanctions against putting and russia manhattan guns under ignition them. it is ation that us to this lily. the russians hadn't expected the west to react, so united lee and decisively fountain for clayton in russia, there were leading representatives often asked me why you of all people that you should understand that we feel humiliated images, not them. you yourselves were humiliated after world war one lies, but that's not a good historical comparison garden. the comparison is precisely a country with such a difficult history as germany must stand up resolutely for the law to be upheld. that's why the message that had to be sent was a red line has been reach

but if he comes away with donbas and crimea, — he comes away with donbas and crimea, he _ he comes away with donbas and crimea, he will regarded as victory. sending _ crimea, he will regarded as victory. sending tanks to poland, soviet tanks and to help ukraine which is a way of written constant challenge because their offensive weapons that would breach the nato deals. in this backfill and poland if they decide to send some tanks but that means poland then has armed ukraine with offensive tanks. in that mix poland vulnerable to possible threat of attack from russia and further invasion. it doesn't really matter who provides the tanks to home, it does give putin, if you wanted, an excuse to invade further across the eastern board. his troops are very stretched, they're only able to attack donbas now. been able to take the rest of ukraine they proven to be very badly supplied and maintained and badly operated by the troops and generals. we have one general that's managed to take over and talking about the defensive to only attack a very small part of ukraine and though only be able to fu

when the invasion began on february 2a, it was a three—pronged attack — from the south using crimea as a springboard, from the east, the donbas and from the north, where belarus helped russia launch this invasion. the initial idea behind the invasion was a pretty simple one, seize the capital kyiv, secure all important sites in the main cities, kill or capture president zelensky, or let him run away and replace his government with a sympathetic pro—moscow one. well, it hasn't worked out that way. ukraine stood its ground. its army has been outnumbered and outgunned, but it's people and outgunned, but its people have been fighting back hard and their morale is pretty high, extraordinarily high given what they have suffered. russian tactics have been often very poor. the commanders have failed to combine inventory to combine infantry with tanks and artillery to the best effect. they have missed a big opportunity there. then there are the russian logistics which have often failed, and that has meant their convoys have got bogged down and stalled as they wait for fuel and supplies and th

the situation in crimea was not much better. thus, is midday. what about the problem that russia is constantly taking political prisoners in the crimea remarked, carrying out large scale repression assures it's a really bad domestic political situation there. hm. guardian is especially for those who are loyal to ukraine in as it, as my merrily crimean totters and ukrainians, and, or krajina. in june 2021, the e. u leadership passed a resolution condemning russia. they called on moscow to cease human rights violations against crimean charters. and members of other local communities. a month earlier, zalinski had held a press conference marking the 2nd anniversary of his tenure as president. he was eager to be seen as a strong leader with a pro reform agenda. and chief among the points he addressed was a builds, would limit corruption, and the power of the oligarchs zalinski owed his presidency to one such tycoon. e hor, column whiskey whose one plus one tv channel had been a driving force behind his campaign. column whiskey was a controversial fi

the situation in crimea was not much better. thus, is midday. what about the problem that russia is constantly taking political prisoners in the crimea must carrying out large scale repression issues. it's a really bad domestic political situation there. hm. guardian is especially for those who are loyal to ukraine in as it, as my marilee crimean totters and ukrainians, or krajina. in june 2021, the e. u leadership passed a resolution condemning russia. they called on moscow to cease human rights violations against crimean charters. and members of other local communities. a month earlier, zalinski had held a press conference marking the 2nd anniversary of his tenure as president. he was eager to be seen as a strong leader with a pro reform agenda. and chief among the points he addressed was a builds, would limit corruption and the power of the oligarchs them. so lensky owed his presidency to one such tycoon. e hor color moist, keen, whose one plus one tv channel had been a driving force behind his campaign column. whiskey was a controversial fig

and the rest _ the mariupol area, and crimea and the rest of— the mariupol area, and crimea and the rest of donbas. sceptical utility, — the rest of donbas. sceptical utility, russia's option can be achieved _ utility, russia's option can be achieved easier. i think the primary -oal achieved easier. i think the primary goat for— achieved easier. i think the primary goal for russia is actually to secure — goal for russia is actually to secure mariupol in order to annex done _ secure mariupol in order to annex done yet — secure mariupol in order to annex done yet -- _ secure mariupol in order to annex done yet. —— donetsk. some of the ambitions — done yet. —— donetsk. some of the ambitions and demand is laid out by president _ ambitions and demand is laid out by president putin seem to do suggest that diplomacy is over. he is president putin seem to do suggest that diplomacy is over.— that diplomacy is over. he is asking for the entire _ that diplomacy is over. he is asking for the entire country _ that diplomacy is over. he is asking for the entire country to _ fo

the situation in crimea was not much better. thus, is midday. what about the problem that russia is constantly taking political prisoners in the crimea must carrying out large scale repression issues. it's a really bad domestic political situation there. hm. guardian is especially for those who are loyal to ukraine in as it, as my marilee crimean totters and ukrainians and ocarina. in june 2021, the e. u leadership passed a resolution condemning russia. they called on moscow to cease human rights violations against crimean charters. and members of other local communities. a month earlier, zalinski had held a press conference marking the 2nd anniversary of his tenure as president. he was eager to be seen as a strong leader with a pro reform agenda. and chief among the points he addressed was a builds, would limit corruption and the power of the oligarchs. so lensky owed his presidency to one such tycoon. e hor color mosquito whose one plus one tv channel had been a driving force behind his campaign. column whiskey was a controversial figure who h

you crank, cannot reclaim control over crimea, or didn't boss in the military way. i mean right now you cranes, military positioning is mostly defensive for other than offensive. so diplomatic track remains very important. in november 2019 president in manuel macaroni of france and chancellor angel immacule of germany announced they would resume meetings with the leaders of russia and ukraine. 3 years had elapsed since the last of these normandy format talks. ah, what was the lensky prepared for negotiations in paris? protesters poured into the streets of keith. his predecessor, petro porsche ango, addressed the assembled crowd, which we're here to day because we believe in our victory. oh, we're also here to prevent our defeat, i'm afraid. what are we sincerely wish the ukrainian delegation success to morrow? gravely delivered? the protesters feared that zalinski would accept a plan bleed out 3 years earlier by the then german foreign minister, frank far to shine maia. that proposal aim to if i, the implementation of the minced agreements. the shine by your formula

the situation in crimea was not much better. thus, is midday. what about the problem that russia is constantly taking political prisoners in the crimea must carrying out large scale repression issues. it's a really bad domestic political situation there. hm. guardian is especially for those who are loyal to ukraine, isn't a primarily crimean totters and ukrainians and all krajina. in june 2021, the e. u leadership passed a resolution condemning russia. they called on moscow to cease human rights violations against crimean charters and members of other local communities. a month earlier, zalinski had held a press conference marking the 2nd anniversary of his tenure as president. he was eager to be seen as a strong leader with a pro reform agenda. and chief among the points he addressed was a builds, would limit corruption and the power of the oligarchs zalinski owed his presidency to one such tycoon. e hor, column whiskey whose one plus one tv channel had been a driving force behind his campaign. column whiskey was a controversial figure who had

and he says, we have in the independent republic of donbass, we have got crimea, we call it a day. >> he has to sell this operation as victory. on the other hand, we are still thinking about all those plausible scenarios after the war. i believe there will be tremendous pressure on the part of some european countries to return to normalcy in our relationship with russia, both in terms of trade and political relations. it will be very parlous, but in terms of our political standing, right now, we are in the middle of an interesting and intriguing discussion about germany's stents. for example, closing all loopholes in the sanctions package that we have imposed, the european union but also the u.s. and other superpowers have imposed on russia, we have two close all those loopholes. we are talking about blocking imports of oil, coal, gas, other commodities. we are going to give imports of coal immediately. then imports of gas of by the end of the year, but other countries are hesitant. they are too reliant on imports of russian raw material. >> germany gets 40% of its energy from russia

>> indeed, crimea is under occupation for eight years. and it's not only about ukrainians but all the nations and indigenous population, including that are living in crimea and they have really complicated life now even more because of this all-out aggression of the russian federation. because they also are oppressed for protesting against this war. for instance, those people who go to single protest or who speak up in social media, they immediately become a target for the administrative and criminal prosecution for the so-called discreditation of the armed forces and the russian federation. that new article was established by russian government, by russian parliament, right after the beginning of the all-out war. >> there is also a concern that there could be ukrainians drafted by the russian military to fight with the russians? >> they are drafted, already. i mean, the ukrainians are -- ukrainian citizens in crimea are being conscripted illegally to the russian army throughout the eight years of the occupation. and there's been more tha

the situ in, in crimea, was not much better. vast is midday. what about the problem that russia is constantly taking political prisoners in the crimea remarked, carrying out large scale repression, shirts. it's a really bad domestic political situation there. hm. bodinez, especially for those who are loyal to ukraine in isn't as primarily crimean totters and ukrainians, or krajina. in june 2021, the e. u leadership passed a resolution condemning russia. they called on moscow to seize human rights violations against crimean charters and members of other local communities. a month earlier, zelinski had held a press conference marking the 2nd anniversary of his tenure as president. he was eager to be seen as a strong leader with a pro reform agenda. and chief among the points he addressed was a bill to limit corruption and the power of the oligarchs been zalinski owed his presidency to one such tycoon. e hor, color mosquito whose one plus one tv channel had been a driving force behind his campaign. column whiskey was a controversial figure who had

hindsight, as a kind of dress rehearsal, what is happening now that you know that the annexation of crimea, the 3rd, the russian fermenting of separatism in the dawn bus. those were in a, were an early version of this same impulse, which was the prison saying to the world, i am willing to tell you crane apart to stop the west, getting it while russian troops a mass in huge numbers along the east and border with ukraine. moscow claims these trip movements are merely military exercises while at flexing its muscles. on february 24th 2022, a full scale military invasion begins for flow award. the besieged by persistent bombing and motor fire wash wall russia claims not to be targeting residential. and again with rosco focus is its strongest offensive on strategic sit over 5000 civilians. and mario, paul alone, many of them children. at the same time, the russian army has opened france and on ukraine's northern border, while trying to move ever closer to the capital, keith millions desperately stay and take part in the fighting. ukraine puts up a strong opposition. one seemingly led by ukraine'

we've turned a blind eye to crimea and to what's happened in syria. _ to crimea and to what's happened in syria, we've turned a blind eye to so many — syria, we've turned a blind eye to so many things because we've been very cautious — understandably, and worried _ very cautious — understandably, and worried about ramping things up and going _ worried about ramping things up and going into _ worried about ramping things up and going into what could end up as world _ going into what could end up as world war iii. and i think the trouble — world war iii. and i think the trouble is _ world war iii. and i think the trouble is that putin knows this, he's _ trouble is that putin knows this, he's played the long game, he's made these _ he's played the long game, he's made these moves in crimea in syria, and he's seen _ these moves in crimea in syria, and he's seen that nothing is happened. so he's _ he's seen that nothing is happened. so he's only— he's seen that nothing is happened. so he's only got to do this a little bit more — so he's only got to do this a little bit more toâ€

now, russian forces control an arc of territory connecting the breakaway regions to crimea, and cutting ukraine off from the sea of resolve. in the latest development this week, russia intensified its efforts to take more territory across the don boss. a launched a battery of thousands of air and artillery attacks on many points along the front line. now us analysts say they believe that russia appears to be trying to encircle ukrainian forces in this pocket here between a territories by one estimate up to 40000 ukrainians may be position there and that's about 20 percent of the known forces. now these ukranian units are we expected to put up quite a fight because they have been well practiced in fighting separatists here for years. russia on the other side, is estimated to have up to $70000.00 troops across the se, including units which retreated after failing to take the capital keith. but some western analysts believe that russian forces are not ready for this new offensive. they say they appear to be rushing to attack without proper training, preparation, or supply lines. and this w

crimea. —— nasty. so obviously it was— crimea. —— nasty. so obviously it was not — crimea. —— nasty. so obviously it was not strong _ crimea. —— nasty. so obviously it was not strong enough _ crimea. —— nasty. so obviously it was not strong enough for- crimea. —— nasty. so obviously it was not strong enough for the i was not strong enough for the flagship. _ was not strong enough for the flagship. their— was not strong enough for the flagship, their prayers. - was not strong enough for the flagship, their prayers. catherine, it's interesting _ flagship, their prayers. catherine, it's interesting that _ flagship, their prayers. catherine, it's interesting that kirill's - flagship, their prayers. catherine, it's interesting that kirill's title i it's interesting that kirill's title is the patriarch of moscow and all of russia. he happens to be the cartographer both by training and profession before he became a priest. is there a kind of almost territorial claim built into that title? i territorial claim built into that tit

the west doesn't recognize the crimea referendum, but the certainly the crimea, and to do so, where at this stage here, what would be fair or is that impossible to answer? go ahead. not sure that we can talk in terms of fairness. now they'll have to be determined over more than our lifetimes, unlink pending on interpretations. i'd like to say a few words, literally, a single words about the kind of ukraine that we're going to see at the, or after military. the military actions are over. we will no doubt have a more nationalistic ukraine, a weaker ukraine, a more illiberal ukraine. we're already seeing the manifestations of this and the rest of more or less, every opposition figure in ukraine. and of course, a more resentful ukraine for this generation. at least 1211. what, where is i tell them an will that be resentment against the west as well? yes. yes, yes. and, and the best lesson i think that ah, thoughtful ukrainian elite can take out of this is to be more reliant on their own interests. and think about their own interests 1st as independent actors. well, the you saying the quiet

when the invasion began on february 2a, it was a three—pronged attack from the south using crimea as a springboard, from the east, the donbas and from the north, where belarus helped russia launch this invasion. the initial idea behind the invasion was a pretty simple one, seize the capital kyiv, secure all important sites in the main cities, kill or capture president zelensky, or let him run away and replace his government with a sympathetic pro—moscow one. well, it hasn't worked out that way. ukraine stood its ground. its army has been outnumbered and outgunned, but its people have been fighting back hard and their morale is pretty high, extraordinarily high given what they have suffered. russian tactics have been often very poor. the commanders have failed to combine inventory with tanks and artillery to the best effect. they have missed a big opportunity there. then there are the russian logistics which have often failed, and that has meant their convoys have got bogged down and stalled as they wait for fuel and supplies and that makes them an easy target. and yet russia's pres

now they'll have a long corridor into the crimea, so that's the 1st thing. second thing from the perspective of the direct military situation. there are between $6.00 and $8.00 russian, italian combat groups, which are about in theory, a 1000 men each. but of course, significantly less not of a very ravaged, but those will be released and the unit supporting them probably to strike north into ukraine, which will will be a problem for you. credit forces that can hold them back as long now as a survivor they've been given. it seems to me is a no quarter order by the enemy, which is to say that there is little point in you surrender because we're going to kill you anyway. which is entirely country to the laws of all the laws and customs of want. of course, the geneva conventions, one of the problems of getting a court order. is that your courage, your enemy to fight to the death? and it seems to me that that's the direction. this is going how while a russia steps up it's offensive on ukraine's 2nd city car, keith and the capital cave, ukrainians in the town of

the crimea will say, and basically a very important part of the operation is over. that's again, my suspicion it of course, it all depends on whether there are you credit in. for example, d block model which could basically throw a spattering the words on mr. whether there is resistance. in other words, as long as rebecca said earlier, there are 2000 fighters and civilians still hold up a change focus and look at russia for a moment. in the early days of the war, we saw mass protest across russia that appears to have vanished. what happened as everyone now support the war? well, they were not mos, frankly speaking. they were frequent and across russia, which was quite interesting because the country is very diverse and very much growing, especially in the province as to the television propaganda of the crime. it, i think by know, 1st and foremost of all these produce have been suppressed a huge find a the doom, a rush through a series of measures that basically punish any criticism of the so called spectrum operation. audition. the operation there are still produce

ukraine was ready to discuss crimea and donbass at separate negotiations. we are ready to return back to those negotiations we have. it has been interesting to hear that the estimable negotiations confirmed negotiations about the status of crimea. probably jumping from the amount, but that demonstrates a general position. new acquisitions, ukraine would not go for this, but those that have not been under ukrainian control for the last eight years, it is not that we are rejecting them. ukraine would like return to total control, but at the same time we are ready to conduct them separately. mr. herbst: thank you. phil, another great ukrainian victory recently was sinking of the flagship of the russian black sea fleet. and the tormentor of odessa, you might say. what is the meaning of this, both in terms of the politics of the war, putin's position, but more importantly the military situation itself? gen. breedlove: it is a great question, and i might just take offense with the way you asked it, in that more important the military part, may be, more importantl

do you believe that putin would've gone into crimea if the united states had not deposed the ruler and installed their own. the second part is the people in eastern ukraine have a plebiscite to have more autonomy from russia, and ukraine? that is my question, sir. guest: i think those are good questions. and what you are getting at is the link between this russian invasion and the broader question of nato's enlargement since the end of the cold war in the early 1990's up until the present day. and the russians clearly have indicated that they oppose that enlargement, in general. particularly to ukraine. which has all sorts of geographic, economic, cultural, and political significance for russia. they have been warning about this problem not just since the end of the soviet union, but in the latter days of the cold war. mikhail gorbachev as the kremlin leader under the soviet union was concerned about the possibility that the breakup of the soviet union could lead to the separation of ukraine and russia, and he regarded that as fraught with all sorts of political and insecurity -- and s

markarova: even though we had the right to crimea, we never planned any offensive. we worked day and night diplomatic solutions on how to restore our territorial integrity. we established a crimea platform so that we can discuss what would be a diplomatic solution to reestablish our territorial integrity. we always try to negotiate. ukraine is a very peaceful people. we do not like to be at war with anyone. we prefer to discuss negotiations and find a solution. but of course, as we saw 90 years ago, the genocide that was done by russia when they denied us. and a lot of people died. we have to be armed. we have to be peaceful but able to defend ourselves. our president said we are ready to negotiate. as soon as russia said they were ready to negotiate, we sent negotiators to try to negotiate to try to find a way to return to peace. to negotiate does not mean to surrender. after seeing the atrocities in bucha, and is harder to negotiate. it is russia who continued to double down. it took them on instead of focusing on negotiations. at the same time, ukraine is still i

crimea in 2014. those are their proximate goals. they're likely to be able to solve them in the coming months. the ukrainians have the ability to counterattack. >> i want to read something you said and the economists about president putin. he doesn't have much more to lose. russia already faces a transalantic political military alliance that has imposed harsh sanctions on its country. -- genocide and to treat mr. putin. a scorched earth approach would probably win him a limited military victory. so what should the world brace for? >> since i wrote that piece, today the german chancellor actually made another point in that regard. he said we will do nothing in germany that will risk world war three. kind of like what biden is saying. there's not much more you can do. you're not going to do a no-fly zone. you're not going to send your troops to directly fight against the russians. that mean russia doesn't have much to fear. if they take all the donbass, they'll get it and maybe they sit for a while. bu

an equally occupied crimea. now, currently the only conflict between russia and crime is effectively a long bridge. they finish, i think about 3 or 4 years ago. right now they'll have a long corridor into the crimea. so that's the 1st thing. second thing from the perspective of the direct military situation, there are between $6.00 and $8.00 russian, italian combat groups, which are about, in theory, a 1000 men each. but of course, public significantly less not of a very ravaged, but those will be released on the units supporting them, probably to strike know thing to ukraine, which will will be a problem for ukrainian forces. and that's one of the reasons these guys have been given the order to fight on. i suspect, let's talk actually a little bit more about russia strategy now. they've confirmed the death of general vladimir for all of another high ranking general who is killed in ukraine. and what does this tell us though about russia's military strategy? well, the 1st thing it tells us is that they're not ve

for example in crimea, will there _ have? for example in crimea, will there he _ have? for example in crimea, will there he a — have? for example in crimea, will there be a referendum at some point, and if— there be a referendum at some point, and if so, _ there be a referendum at some point, and if so, will— there be a referendum at some point, and if so, will the there be a referendum at some point, and if so, willthe ukrainians there be a referendum at some point, and if so, will the ukrainians who have _ and if so, will the ukrainians who have been— and if so, will the ukrainians who have been kicked out of crimea go back to _ have been kicked out of crimea go back to take part in it? in the same thing— back to take part in it? in the same thing in_ back to take part in it? in the same thing inthe— back to take part in it? in the same thing in the donbas. ithink back to take part in it? in the same thing in the donbas. i think these are difficult questions that no one has really— are difficult questions that no one has really grappled with them and we

compare that to what we see on the black sea and the path -- path of russia to crimea. >> russia has a corridor of possibility to transport people and goods between mainland russia and colin grad to enclave, doing so both with railway and with road transport and also now when eu is putting lots of sanctions against russia, this corridor is not subjected to sanctions. that is indeed more as an excuse, which russia is trying to use potentially to close down what is called a corridor, which is connecting poland and lithuania but it is all a territory of nato, which is why it is important they are proper nato defense plans in place. you also raise questions and finland and sweden as we know. both of those countries are currently considering a possible application to actually join nato. lisa: we are talking also about the potential consequences, additional consequences for russia, the number of european nations called for a full embargo of oil from russia, what with that due to member states in terms of economics? >> since the beginning of russia's a -- russia's aggression, and implemente

now they'll have a long corridor into the crimea. so that's the 1st thing. second thing from the perspective of the direct military situation. there are between $6.00 and $8.00 russian battalion combat groups, which are about in theory, a 1000 men each. but of course, significantly less not of a very ravage, but those will be released and the unit supporting them probably to strike north into ukraine, which will will be a problem for you kind of forces that can hold them back as long now as they survive, they've been given, it seems to me is a no quarter order by the enemy, which is to say that there is little point in you surrender because we're going to kill you anyway. which is entirely country to the laws of all the laws and customs of want. of course, the geneva conventions, one of the problems of getting a court order. is that your courage, your enemy to fight to the death? and it seems to me that that's the direction this is going and while russia steps up, it's offensive on ukraine's 2nd city car, keith and the capital kiff ukrainians in the town of

right now they'll have a long corridor into the crimea. so that's the 1st thing. second thing from the perspective of the direct military situation. there are between $6.00 and $8.00 russian, italian combat groups, which are about in theory, a 1000 many. but of course, public significantly less of a very ravaged, but those will be released on the unit, supporting them, probably to strike north into ukraine, which will will be a problem for you credit forces. and that's one of the reasons these guys have been given the order to fight on. i suspect, let's talk actually a little bit more about russia strategy now. they've confirmed the death of general vladimir fall of another high ranking general who is killed in ukraine. and what does this tell us though about russia's military strategy? well, the 1st thing it tells us is that they're not very good at command and control. one of the advantages that western forces is demonstrated last 30 years, is that a great deal initiative to the for commanders. these generals being killed, which by the way, constitutes about 30

the west doesn't recognize the crimea referendum, but the certainly the crimean to do so. we're at this stage here, what would be fair or is that impossible to answer? go ahead. i'm not sure that we can talk in terms of fairness. now, that'll have to be determined over more than our lifetimes. i think, pending on interpretations. i'd like to say a few words literally, single words about the kind of ukraine that we're going to see at the, after military. the military actions are over. we will no doubt have a more nationalistic ukraine, a weaker your brain, a more liberal ukraine. we're already seeing the manifestations of this in the arrest of more or less, every opposition figure in ukraine. and of course, a more resentful ukraine for this generation. at least, well, one of them will be resentment against the west as well. yes. yes, yes. and, and the best lesson i think that but full ukrainian elite can take out of this is to be more reliant on their own interest and think about their own interest. first as independent actors. well, you saying the quiet part out loud? beca

the crimea voted to leave. ah, don bow separated itself from kev. ah, were looking at the, the military operation, alga rushes military operation, now it will lose its access to the see. ah, most definitely, and there's nothing anyone can do about that. so what kind of ukraine is there going to be, is going to be a rum state, you know, with alisha ideology and all of that. i mean it, is that something that he wants? does anybody want that go ahead? gilbert run state might be a misnomer because we're speaking about a republic cindy don boss and the territory to the south, but it's been conquered in the last 4 weeks fighting, getting the russians control over the whole a hazel at sea literal, that's maybe 15 percent of the territory crane and it isn't a much greater percentage of the population before the war. so, um, what we, what, what remains to be seen is whether there will be a genuine partition between the eastern part of the remains of ukraine, which has a fairly high percentage of are hand before the sport. a high percentage of russian speaker

russian forces have pushed upwards from crimea, downwards from donbas, and it looks like they want to connect their forces. that would enable russia to take a larger bite out of eastern ukraine, it would be easier to defend, and they would have control of the sea and the port in mariupol which gives him a strong strategic positions should they end up in a new frozen conflict with ukraine. it is so interesting if you think about that geographically. do you think it may return yet again to the capital which was such a focus the first six weeks? we are now seeing people returning to their homes, trying to recreate their life there. do you think that kyiv is still in danger, for example? it is difficult to say. i spoke to a friend of mine who is there yesterday, and life is almost normal. the restaurants are opening. the cafes are open and that is in part because the russians have concentrated their attention on the far east of the country. one big question we do not know is if they succeed in consolidating the territory do they stop? or do they hunker down and start pushing towards the w

um, you know, we had the, the, the coup in 2014, the grand crimea voted to leave. ah, don bass separated itself from kev. we're looking at the, the military up ration. russia's military operation. now it will lose its access to the sea. most definitely, and there's nothing anyone can do about that. so what kind of ukraine is that are going to be? it's going to be a rum state, you know, with deletion ideology and all of that. i mean is that something that you want? does anybody want that go ahead? gilbert run state might be a misnomer because we're speaking about the republics and don't boss and the territory to the south, but it's been conquered in the last 4 weeks fighting the, getting the russians control over the whole hazel c. literally. that's maybe 15 percent of the territory crane. there isn't a much greater percentage of the population before the war. so what we, what, what remains to be seen is whether there will be a genuine partition between the eastern part of the but remains of ukraine, which has a fairly high percentage of had before this war. high pe

moscow also claims that 396 remaining crew members were rescued and taken to crimea. so russia's goal now is to take full control of southern ukraine, creating really a land corridor to crimea and on the other end, moldova. president zelenskyy speaking in his nightly address to the nation says this only proves that the russian invasion of ukraine is, quote, only the beginning, that they want to capture other countries. our sam kiley has more now from dnipro. >> reporter: in the latest development coming from the russian command structures, we've heard from the commander of the russian central command, the major general, saying that the russians' strategic aim now is not only the de-nazification or the liberation of ukraine, but it is focused back not towards the donbas entirely -- that's the east of the country -- but has now added in the south of ukraine, perhaps all the way to the border with moldova moldova. now, if that were possible -- and he certainly suggested that would be the ultimate aim -- there would be a land link all the way between moldova and russia ri

um, you know, we had the, the, the coo and 2014, the crimea voted to leave. ah, don, bow separated itself from kev. we're looking at the, the military operation, alga rushes, military operation. now it will lose its access to the see. ah, most definitely, and there's nothing anyone can do about that. so what kind of ukraine is there going to be is going to be a rum state, you know, with alisha ideology and all of that. i mean, it, is that something that he wants? does anybody want that go ahead? gilbert run state might be a misnomer because we're speaking about a republic cindy, don't boss and the territory to the south, but it's been conquered in the last 4 weeks. fighting, getting the russians control over the whole unusual, etc literal. thus, maybe 15 percent of the territory crane and or isn't a much greater percentage of the population before the war. so, um, what we, what, what remains to be seen is whether there will be a genuine partition between the eastern part of the remains of ukraine, which has a fairly high percentage of are hand before the spor

the ukrainians like to kick the russians out completely probably to include crimea but certainly out of donbas and the russians, if it continues to go poorly for them, might do something like they did with finland in 1939 to say, look, we're going to hack off a part of your country, perhaps the donbas in exchange for you remaining a country. so what we'll have to see, i don't think we're there but both sides are like, we need to figure out a way out of that's not military. >> steve, how do you do that when you see vladimir putin, first of all, not even acknowledge that ukraine is a legitimate country but now this is his second encroachment into this sovereign country, obviously annexing crimea and now going back in and going back for the country en masse. how do you negotiate with someone like that, how do you move on as a thriving successful country with vladimir putin in charge? >> i don't trust vladimir putin any more than you do or anybody than anybody who's tried to negotiate or talk with him. he's a bit of a wild card right now because we have been describing him, i think, corr

ready crimea and 7 double express will be used to 2004 stupid newspaper. and i think she, of course, they did the same thing as white people and costs of a deed. so they made a decision about their independence. and then they made a request to join the russian federation, the only difference being that cost of the new most. but the parliament made such decision about independence and costs and in crimea, and then said was top, it was down during the popular failed during the referendum. then the problem emerged in the southeast of ukraine where people of at least 2 entries, 2 regions of ukraine did not agree with who did talk with its outcome. but she was an upper advantages. so they faced a lot of pressure and william, including via the use of the military, all the comments and how the weapon rate. and that's how the try this in don't bass, in the se, from ukraine emerged and to do hazards now. and without for another problem. away in which on successful attempt till the key of authorities to resolve the matter by military, they signed an agreement and me

. >> i did not hear about ukraine's intention to take back crimea. i think crimea is a separate issue and they never gave up on taking it. and they shouldn't. but i think taking it will be more problematic at this point unless the russian army completely collapses. and they do hope to take it back. well, you know, given the performance of the russian military so far, there is a very good chance they can do it. we hear about the russian soldiers refusing to be sent to ukraine. we hear about russian soldiers sabotaging their own equipment. casualties are mounting. at the same time we know they are preparing a huge offensive. something we saw only in world war ii. tens of thousands of troops, tens of thousands of weapons. we'll have to see what happens. >> thank you so much. i think the west has got to respond to get the weapons they need to be responsive. coming up. hillary clinton making the rounds. why? dana perino has an idea. she will be joining us. i have chosen martha maccallum to inform you in the famed news duel. evacuate eastern ukraine. 4 mil

>> this is the place he first got a grip on in 2014, after annexing crimea. we know in 2014, the russian government, putin in particularly, had bigger ambitions. he talked about this region of novarasia, which extends through the port cities that we've seen completely devastated, mariupol, for example, to some of the other cities they've seized, and all the way down to odessa, where we're getting reports they are starting to shell and fighting. this was seized by the russian empire under captain the great. and putin has talked about it repeatedly. along the black sea, across the crimea peninsula, extending to donbas, seems to be the area he is wanting to make sure he has a hold of no matter what. >> brennan: i want to put up a map here because we keep hearing that much of the world is taking a side in this conflict against russia, but, actually, it is really just europe and the americas. it's the west, japan. is the world actually really lining up against him, or does he have quite a lifeline still? >> he does still have a lifeline. this is problematic. i kno

it started from the annexation of crimea, and then the war in donbas. i think that it's happened because we was very young country. we was a very young independent country. we have not this experience. >> reporter: the experience but not the nato membership and not the protected airspace zelenskyy has asked for. while the international community has given massive financial backing to ukraine, including more than $14 billion from the u.s., yermak says ukraine needs a new system. >> all systems of the security not work, and i can say not exist. of course we do our best to talk with our partner, the united states, great britain, germany, and turkey, other countries, to create this new system. and of course after this war, after this heroic fighting of ukrainian nations, we have absolutely right not just to be a part of this new system, but be in the center and be one of the leaders of this new system of the security. >> reporter: as a film producer, one of andriy yermak's most famous movie was called "the fight rules: your spirit is your weapon," now wagin