lisa: how much can the u.s. be a leader if there is such a fisher within the nation -- a fisher within the nation -- a fissure within the nation? alexander: the u.s. has done very well. the u.s. is able to bring nato together, but u.s. society as such is quite split. did my undergraduate work in greenville, south carolina. [laughter] lisa: that was an amazing accent. jonathan: so i follow american events -- alexander: so i follow american events very closely. we don't know whether joe biden or donald trump is going to be the footnote of history, and this is what a lot of europeans are preparing for. tom: respond to mr. erdogan's comments on sweden come on finland, and support of the kurds. alexander: i think what erdogan is asking for his three things. one is linked to the kurds and especially pkk. the finnish president has taken a very strong stance defending turkey on this. the second is the arms embargo in 2013, and the other is about american f 13's. i believe in clemency. finland and turkey have always had

it -- lisa: mal-burn. tom: i cannot say it. lisa: this has been an interesting davos. i have been surprised at how serious people have been in getting things done. it is trying to roll up your sleeves. tom: all of us have maximum guilt about being away. you have to buy loot when you go home. thank you, structured credit dad emailed in and he agrees with me. lisa: is that the reason you are mentioning this, to excuse why that will not be in the loop bag? what will it be? toblerone with davos? it is not any cheaper. tom: it is not at all. lisa: i've been impressed at how things have gone and then we will head back to new york city. tom: we are in london tomorrow, then with the balance of power in what joe mathieu is doing we go back to a sad story in america. lisa: a horrendous story that desensitizes people to what happens in schools. honestly, that schools prepare for this. tom: we need to say thank you to the hundreds in davos that have helped us. queen victoria helpdesk. did anastasia help us? lisa: thank you to all. tom: thank you to all. >> welcome to a special upd

lisa: we do have a holiday. tom: mi off? lisa: most people in europe are off. possibly that is why markets are so calm today. it is a noticeable shift. tom: what is so important is we are so upside down, we do not realize it is the end of may, we are one month away from midyear, we have the jobs report coming up next week. we will get a look at the pmi numbers that jon ferro thinks are so important and we will get a first assessment. lisa: we already got an assessment. this week, data that was disappointing and a green light for people to ratchet back expectations for the fed and the longer-term. i wonder whether people are overly complacent and overly perhaps confident that the fed could orchestrate something gentle, which seems to be a growing consensus. tom: looking at the data, that is how desperate we are, looking for a tea leaf. lisa: we will be looking at u.s. jobless claims at 8:30. i am focused on the jobless claims, i know many others in the market are, trying to get a sense of how we gauge the labor market, how much momentum there is. we have seen a

lisa: he abandoned us. tom: the vitality of the food here, and europe in general, the best was in istanbul in my travels. steven major, thank you so much. i'm not having a full english tomorrow. we will do a full english data check. we can do that. the headline number for me with richard mailer coming up his brent crude. $116.85. lisa: what does this mean for refined products? i'm curious how the windfall tax plays into this, whether it is the beginning of a host of taxes around the world. exactly. what is going to be the consequence? do you see more investment in oil and gas production, or loopholes any retracement -- and a retracement because they raise -- because there is a resentment? tom: i tried to pay in crypto. what a grim week for crypto. i have less than scott minerd. he says up to $400,000. then $8,000 on crypto. lisa: it has not been the safe asset a lot of people expected. i think you should start the triple leveraged all crypto fund. tom: we tried that. coming up, alina polyakova, president of

lisa: is that the effort of wind? we have a windstorm from tom keene. lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro on assignment. this fog really sets the moment for the mom -- early sets the mood for the moment we are in. tom: it really works this year. there's a some furnace. i will -- there's a somberness. charles schwab wrote a note this year that i have never seen in 51 years. there was a somber tone of this war in ukraine. lisa: not only that, but the supply-chain disruptions and how you re-create the spirit of globalization that is being rejected by so many different populations. i've got to say, the backdrop of markets yesterday, quiescent. but today a little less so. there's another downward tilt, and it comes after snap, and i know you wonder what kind of company it is, a lot of people call it social media, but abercrombie and fitch also coming out with some potentially negative headwinds, basically talking about some of the supply chain disruptions that have been greater than expected. tom: i had a conversation yesterday, and i don't think it has been played enough here.

lisa: that is so you. jonathan: i liked escaping the living room tidy and clean and zen, just like me. [laughter] lisa: the control room is laughing. jonathan: what are you laughing for? what's it like having xfinity internet? it's beyond gig-speed fast. so gaming with your niece, has never felt more intense. hey what does this button do? no, don't! we're talking supersonic wi-fi. three times the bandwidth and the power to connect hundreds of devices at once. that's powerful. couldn't said it better myself. you just did. unbeatable internet from xfinity. made to do anything so you can do anything. whoa. >>

lisa: it is not cold, for one. but besides that, there is a recapitulation of what it means to solve problems at a time when you have food prices that are spiraling. you have conflict in ukraine and you are dealing with this frustration with markets. i keep going back to seven straight weeks of losses on the s&p on the nasdaq come of the longest stretch since 2001 for the dow -- since 2001. for the dow, the longest stretch of losses going back to 1923. tom: i remember that well. lisa: so there is a feeling of calm today. tom: as we mentioned with david rubenstein, the bond market gets equal treatment. the carnage in the bond market is tangible. you can rationalize it all you want. the fact is it is tangible. lisa: strategists have a belief, a lot of them, that the fed will come in and save the market by not raising rates too much. tom: i did not hear that from jason furman. lisa: i did not hear that from a lot of individuals we are speaking with here at the world economic forum. that i think is the tension underpin

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lisa: thank you. tom: neil shearing of capital economics, helped us very many times before including on new year's eve shows. easily when it shows up sober. lisa: what he is saying about -- saying is fascinating about the importation of hydrocarbons in europe and this make me wonder what the constraint is around the dollar weakening too much. because that will only? prices more. and create a real issue. it is a complicated scenario, but the different outlooks for europe and the u.s. continues to be a theme. tom: i will go to the back end of the gdp equation and i think we're looking at this holistic leanne i'm looking at it as domestic y equals c plus y equals g. then you have the noise on the backend. and don't observes with his classic optimism that it is about a resilient american economy, it services being the key dynamic as we open up. we are completely focused on goods now. lisa: a lot of people would agree with him though the services out recently was not good. it came in disappointing so there

lisa: there are a lot of people do. i've even gotten letters saying thank you for telling tom the seven-year auction matters. you are reconfirming the lower for longer kind of thesis as you look out to some sort of slow down. how much pushback do you get at a time when we don't know if japan is going to come in, we don't know if china is going to come in come that we don't know if the banks are going to come in in the same way that that siren is coming into our broadcast? ian: i think what we have actually seen over the course of the last two weeks are early indication that japan are coming back into the market, if you look at the data we've got, about $7 billion of buying and overseas notes and bonds. that follows a stretch of 16 weeks where there was about $75 billion of selling, so still an early process of getting japan back reengaged in the overall bond market, but a pretty solid sign that i expect will continue over the course of the next several months because there is this sense of yield from a, as it were. -- y

lisa: this is the issue. a lot of people are opposed to this. >> the secretary came out in favor of it and said she was going to propose it the g7 meeting so it makes all the sense in the world because if you are only taxing russian oil, you are not taxing all oil. so russian oil with the tax will have to compete with the rest of the oil. the month of money that putin gets is going to go down. winning europe out of oil is going to take months or years. you want to harm russian now, not in a few months or years. it's just smart that in that world, russian oil still comes out so world oil prices don't go up. but the cash flow of russia is hurt. tom: you on the high ground with barry eichengreen of thinking how emerging markets can respond in financial markets and also within trade flows and real economies as well. should we be afraid now of emerging-market fragility's given a pandemic, given a war in ukraine and maybe also given big economy irresponsibility. how fragile are they? >> i think it's a mixed bag. we

lisa: why? michael: we are all doing them -- tom: we are all doing the math but recession is more complicated than that. lisa: christine lagarde saying it is not inevitable, others saying it is, including the citigroup ceo. these are the cross winds underpinning the discussion. tom: can we say -- in the sky? there was a windstorm. this is what saved us yesterday. lasting freeze spray. we thank the schwarzkopf people. lisa: it did not save us yesterday because our hair was wild. let's take a look at the market. you are seeing the nasdaq is giving up the gains from yesterday, at least in early trading. you can see it down almost 2%. the s&p down 1.3%. 39.22. the euro continuing to make gains. the reason that is interesting, christine lagarde saying she will not accelerate this and drawing a nuance between supply-side and demand-side inflation saying this is supply-side driven and demand does not have to be what they address. 10 year yields down, bonds up. you're seeing that 2.8%, not a huge move.

lisa: doesn't matter? honestly, does the mechanical peak actually matter, or does it mean the pace of the decline? we were talking with adam posen about how it could get back down to maybe 3% in 2024. is that good enough for the fed to feel comfortable, even if we did reach a mechanical peak in march or april? jonathan: that's the two sides of their goals in conflict with each other by the end of the year. we are going to be talking about maybe an ism close to 60% a little later this morning, the view of bank of america. so let's say you've got something in the high 50's, then you got a payroll report that shows payrolls growth in and around three poi -- around 350 to 400. is that the same around the end of the year if inflation is still 3%, 4%, and they got a growth story that is not robust or resilient? i thing that kind of sums things up. lisa: as well as how long does it take for monetary policy to actually transfer itself to sentiment and a slowdown in the economy. how much lag time to they to really

lisa: it carries over to the morning. jonathan: would you allocate any of this -- any of your cash to this stock? peloton down 17.5% in the pre-market. equity futures up. we have a bounce. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping up-to-date with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. president biden will highlight his efforts to stem inflation in a speech today. it comes at a time when soaring prices threaten democrats's chances of holding onto congress. the president will draw a contrast with a republican proposal to raise taxes. just in time for summer driving season, u.s. gasoline and diesel prices have set a record, according to aaa. gasoline prices have had $4.37 a gallon. americans are expected to drive more this summer than in 2021. president biden has signed a measure designed to make it easier for the u.s. to send weapons and supplies to ukraine. the legislation cuts redtape but don't -- but does not -- does not include additional funding. shares of palatine are falling. the fitness company reported

lisa: where will we be? tom: state with us, wonderful guests to join us in an annual visit with daniel jurgen. this is bloomberg. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. >> in the first two weeks of may, the consumer spent 10% more than they did last may on top of paying taxes. there are 8% more transactions. tom: bank of america chief executive officer, i thought he was fired up. lisa: he was talking about how the consumer still looks calm which is a blessing and a curse for the federal reserve that has to parse through that strength and what it takes to end it. tom: the repeat video of mr. moynihan is worth watching and captures the spirit and the choice that some of these banks have. we welcome all of you to davos, switzerland. i did a lamb and goat check and i think they are in the barn. maybe they wi

lisa: the airlines have. how much is the oil and gas prices having to do with something intentional? jonathan: i am with you. lisa: i was kind of shocked. who is this. tom: i am still here -- jonathan: i am still here. futures down .2% on the s&p. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. for our audience on worldwide tv and radio, here the price action. s&p 500 down .2%. futures negative. here's a headline for you, target. it's a downside surprise. the estimate $3.06. margins lower than expected. this is sounding a whole lot like walmart. target down by 7.6% in early trading and this ceo note sounds a whole lot like walmart, too. throughout the quarter we faced unexpectedly high costs driven by a number of factors resulting in profitability that came in well below our expectations and well below where we expect to operate over time. that stock you getting here in the premarket. tom: i go back to the legend philip caray who died at age 102

lisa, your plan to ban russian crude? lisa: maybe. they haven't planned it yet. we have been talking about, maria put out there so well, it is not about oil. it is all about gas. without that, how much this is really change the narrative? jonathan: let's go to that story a little bit later. we will catch up with maria over in germany, talking about the difficulties the europeans are having. tom: the numbers of germany, russia which indicate the effect year, jamie dimon of jp morgan, she said it cuts both ways. the realm of sanctions and maybe we are having a relevant conversation about what to do next. jonathan: those banks have their own problems distinct from what is happening far away in ukraine and russia. there stocks are down today, even with what is happening with the federal reserve. when you share the latest shift of these banks, -- the stocks are not here in that. tom: i take issue with bundling them altogether. it is no different than technology, no different than consumer staples. there is a real separation out here of people down less than others are

lisa: u.s. executives are not going to come out and say they are getting out of china until they already have. they don't want to hamper employees who work there. they also don't want to get blowback from the chinese government. how much have you seen this withdrawal? this is the big question for a lot of companies that have been pretty quiet on this. leland: it is telltale that just about everybody i know is either on their way out or has already left. there's very few people with plans to go into china anytime soon. it is very difficult to travel and very difficult to operate and live, so people don't want to accept that. tom: wink that change to the party congress later this autumn. leland: i think what the party congress does, xi has his moment, and after that they can recalibrate. you can change covid zero. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but can they spare the time to get to december or january of next year? leland: i don't see how they do it. they have to be extraordinarily lucky and intr

lisa: at some point. even jim bullard pointed it will come out of retirement but you're not seeing the kind of disruption that would lead to that kind of intervention. a lot of people point to that. jonathan: you're not seeing it yet. lisa: yet. jonathan: we have had so much for to speak and they have not gone there. the nasdaq down a little more than 1%. we will get the view of subadra rajappa alongside bob doll and the view from deutsche bank. they are forecasting a recession. deutsche bank's call coming up shortly. laura: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. president biden marked one million deaths from covid by," and congress to maintain funding for testing and treatment. lawmakers remain unable to agree on how to pay for the fight. today the u.s. opens at second summit a great -- aimed at quelling the spread of the coronavirus. it would be another jolt to the european landscape. finland and sweden are inching closer to joining nato. finland's president and prime minister through t

lisa: exactly. how do you win over turkey at a time when that seems to be the biggest sticking point, with the historical reference of how unique this is to actually engage after being neutral for so many years. it highlights how different this moment is. tom: of course, look to bloomberg u.k. for a lot more coverage on that as well. coming up, with the markets in disrepair after those economic reports that we saw, the global infrastructure chairman at carlyle. from davos, lisa abramowicz and tom keene, on radio and tv. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. in uvalde, texas, all of those killed in an elementary school where in the same fourth-grade classroom. at least 19 were killed, along with two adults. a number of others were wounded. the killer was shot and killed by an agent that rushed to the scene. ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy says there are no prospects for diplomacy unless russia pulls back troop

lisa: amid a very abnormal chair. the european finance ministers and energy ministers are meeting today to try to understand the road ahead will stop it seems like the splintering is getting more entrenched. is there any consensus emerging and how to create an embargo on russian energies lies? maria: when you look at germany, this was the country that was opposed to russia and said they had concerns about the impact it would have on the german economy but the germans have dropped the import of russian oil and the numbers speak for themselves. when you look at russian oil going into germany, that has dropped from 35% before the war to now 12% step this is something that is manageable for the germans. the vice chancellor will be here today but the issue is countries like hungary. we had a warning from the hungarian minister who said we don't see how this will end the war we don't or this. his a lot of bravado that comes with us. a lot of this is negotiated tactics within the european union. there has been unanimity arou

lisa: i would agree. ben bernanke said they made a mistake, they missed the boat, they are facing stagflation. that is so unusual for a former fed chair to come out and criticize the standard leadership. that is what we saw. jonathan: what would you prefer to talk about, the fed speak or twitter? twitter right now and the premarket, the conversation looks a little something like this. twitter committed to completing the deal with musk on the price of $54.20. the number beside you is not $54.20. lisa: this means to me that the deal is off because it seems like elon musk was looking for an out after having buyer's remorse, saying perhaps he did not want to pay $54.20. twitter saying we are still going for $54.20. how much does this mean the deal is off? jonathan:jonathan: elon musk saying overnight that twitter must prove the spam proportion for the deal to move forward. tom: what is it, a $1 billion fee to walk away? how far does that go into executive compensation to twitter? i don't know. the whole thing

lisa: i am good. jonathan: lisa is not happy. this ex post, it is not necessarily my view, the fact that we have a former fed official saying they disregarded the data because of uncertainty about leadership, i am surprised a bigger deal has not made. that is hugely problematic for the leadership. tom: you are correct. it is out there. no question about that. as yet an opinion with david page, is not prepared for this conversation. ante x post, is this a fed that was distracted last year? david: it is a fed that is always been a bit confused about forecasting. powell never wants to put too much weight on the role of forecast in his policy, whereas the central banks half to have a view of what is going to happen in terms of the next couple of years in the economy. possibly, this sort of leadership issue was how much focus to put on where data is now and how much on where they expect it once policy changes have fully worked through the system? jonathan: can you ever be completely data-dependent? is transitory the forecast? david: y

lisa, but a jumble. i guess it is a day of a bounce, but we are waiting for the next news item to fall. lisa: honestly, i think what we are seeing is the bond market actually getting a floor. we are seeing that bid into bonds, particularly at the longer-term. this to me is the most notable action in the market. jon was talking about it. we have all been talking about it this morning. even as stocks sold off yesterday, you saw bonds move in the other direction. are people starting to see value in ration -- in duration? we've heard it from analysts, but we are starting to see it in the market. how much does that change the narrative to a growth market instead of a rates care? -- a rate scare? tom: we will see what that is. we need to reaffirm the guys really looking for a wide set of rate increases forward. lisa: i'm still thinking about what david stubbs of jp morgan said, that the cpi print tomorrow could really change the narrative. if it is soft, how much could that cause a re-rating in the market in t

lisa: i want to focus on the component. if you reduce the opportunities, it would be a good thing. >> the labor market plays into how confident they are. it could enter into consumer confidence in an important way. it is impacting some more than others. there was a great speech about this a couple weeks ago. we really have to slice and dice . what they are saying is that we have to create some slack and reduce demand. lisa: this is to prevent some of the lowest income, the lewis society getting shafted in terms of what the incomes are. >> we may have to see some further slowing of the economy. there may be some economic pain in order to bring down inflation. in our forecast, inflation comes down by next year without recession. if we can avoid this pain, we are not all the way back to 2%, but you get into a sweet spot. it allows moderate inflation with respect to 2%. jonathan: i know how much work goes into this. enjoy. just going through that, it is that stood out to me. trying to slow growth. something to think about tom:

-- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on course for a sixth straight week of losses. tom: there is a bid but i'm going to call it fragile. i focus on the vicks, still above 30, 30.66, a bounce. jonathan: have we see the worst and the capitulation? we have heard so many people trying to answer that. tom: they got me going yesterday coming back from tottenham arsenal. i can't said enough, you can measure catharsis, we are nowhere near there. i measure it above 35 on vicks into the 41-40 two level, we are miles away. jonathan: you are desperate to get that match review. tom: completely inappropriate. the musk and twitter news has pushed tottenham arsenal beside. i don't want to get into it now, but i think to see it was to believe it. jonathan: i'm happy we are on the same page, totally inappropriate. 15 or 16% in early trading. lisa: basically elon musk with one tweet wiping off billions of market value for this company that ended the day yesterday at 35, $6 billion in value. how much does he back away from this because of

lisa: what was it? jordan: in terms of my thesis, the trade ban has collapsed but mark is looking at the dollar. i got that wrong. mark: we have traded the stagflation theme much quicker. do we have another week or two of that theme? jordan: most people are on holiday with the queen's jubilee. we have european inflation next week. mark: i will be having a pint by then. lisa: and some vindaloo to go with it. tom: ferro's idea. pull the old fart offstage. mark: mi doing a great job? tom: i have to get something out of this conversation. which beer will you quaff? mark: an ale in london. i will rely on jordan's guidance. jordan: i am more of a camden guy. camden ipa. lisa: i appreciate the bet you guys had. you will go into different things. tom: those of you going what in gods's name is this about, this is the fund and spirit of wall street, was a think is perceived in the media wrong. everyone is like jordan was wrong, shoot him. no. people get it wrong all the time. i get it wrong. was he like way wrong

tom: lisa, way and here -- lisa, weigh in here. [laughter] jonathan: i don't know why they call them the accounts. the outlook for third-quarter growth is still "relatively positive." do with that what you will. their account of the policy meeting reads as follows. "officials saw the war slowing, not derailing the recovery." lisa: that is what i picked up on as well, i do time where more people are talking -- as well, at a time where more people are talking about recession as the base case in europe. how much is this the ecb setting up a rate hikes and possibly getting to zero the end of the year? that i think is what they are trying to confirm. tom: can lister city -- can lester city beat chelsea today? what do you think? jonathan: they have a chance. chelsea is not exact playing well. tom: kriti gupta is going, let's go. what do you have this morning to save us? kriti: if i can harp on what lisa was talking about, recession odds in europe seems to be the base case. this is feeding into a lot of flows for the dollar. i want to tie

lisa desjardins reports. lisa: look at pennsylvania as a magnifent map of national politics right now, and the rough terrain ahead in the fight for the u.s. senate. with the word "fight" most prominent on the right, where frontrunners are battling over who is most conservative. mr. mccormick: thank you all for being here. lisa: republican businessman david mccormick is trying to channel donald trump, stressing america first on things like immigration, jobs and trade. mr. mccormick: i'm gonna fight for pro-growth economic policies, deregulation, fair trade agenda. lisa: but the former president sees himself in someone else. another former tv celebrity, dr. mehmet oz, whose show aired nationally for over a decade. a lifelong republican, oz's opinions on issues like guns and abortion have changed over his years in public life. mr. trump: i'd like to have dr. oz come up and say a few words. lisa: in this campaign, oz has embraced trump's policies and won likability points from some. dr. oz: do we love president t

lisa, also on the front end. lisa: i was going to say the same thing. that was the story for the first time in a long time. there was a bit of flight to safety to bonds. does that tell you we are at the beginning of capitulation or we are at the next leg downward because people are concerned about that growth? you will be watching that throughout the day. he was when i'm watching, treasury secretary janet yellen is testifying to congress. this is going to be fascinating, especially head of that presidential speech later this morning. because there has been reports from bloomberg that her staff as well as janet yellen herself has taken issue with the characterizations of being overly rosy from the white house with respect to transitory inflation or how much you could roll over and of the midterm election. today we get a slew of fed speak. loretta mester among them speaking with michael mckee coming up today at 11:00 a.m. others include jon williams, raphael bostic, and fed governor chris wallace. what are they going to say? jon, are we spending too much

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. from the world economic forum in davos, a very different davos this year in may, not in january. i have been stunned at the changes. i did not expect the difference in energy, the ballet of beautiful may morning. lisa: it's very different from tripping over the ice and dealing with snow and freezing. it's a very different moment in wall street. on the heels of the pandemic, a quieter davos one that is also more serious and focused. tom: you brought it up earlier. it's not a davos of catharsis out there or emotion. it's the slog in interest rates and the worries about recession. lisa: and a changed geopolitical landscape to highlight the fact that russia is not here and all that entails. what does it mean to be globalized in a world where people are trying to find how to get things quickly and reliably despite some of the disruptions? tom: -- was walking by the and he was deglobalized. we will take a quick look at markets. lisa: christine lagarde came out in a note and basically was sa

carnage out there, lisa. it gets worse. lisa: this is a growth concern more than a rate concern. and you're seeing this because as you get carnage, a bit of a haven trade. jon: the yield is down. i was talking about the carnage in the past 24 hours. netflix year to date down 72% and facebook down 34% and tesla down 30% and microsoft down 23% and google down 22%. apple down by 18% and in the premark for some names it gets worse not better. lisa: i saw on twitter, the size and scope, most ever since 2008. is it 2008? it hasn't felt quite like that but perhaps 2000. 2002. when you get certain names that fall out of bed completely and there's a repricing within specific parts of the mark. we've not seen a wholesale financial market collapse as of yet. the question is are the risks building slowly as you get a max exodus. jon: the theme to build on is the wealth destruction we're seeing through those names through the equity mark and something you've been covering the last couple days, through crypto, too. lisa: the fact of the matter those invested in crypto currency are mom and pop

lisa: why do people trade on the adp? mike: it's a question that everyone asks about probably because there is nothing else to trade on today. you could trade on the fed today, but the fed does not meet every month on the adp days. most days there is not much else to trade on. it does gave economists one more data point to fold into their forecasts. people have learned that you get burned pretty quickly with adp sometimes. jonathan: thank you as always. traders going to trade. this just came out from slovakia. they are asking the eu for a three-year exemption to the import ban on russian crude. important to go over this, the german dependency on russian crude has gone from a third to about 12%. one third of their crude imports are coming from russia. slovakia is in the 90's. tom: all i know is that the russian bond of 2042 is price up, yields down. dollar-ruble is stunning. 66, down from the 80 level. jonathan: the money that slovakia has to spend as they work through this, who knows if they will get the exemption. they s

lisa: i am not excited to see the carnage. what is interesting is the 10 year yield is climbing the most. this makes a lot of sense to me. it is the big question after the conference, which is if not frontloading more aggressively, what does it mean for how much control they have on inflation, and markets believe on how high the yield can go? jonathan: i'm glad you bring that up. i have a difficult time getting a read over what is happening over the last couple months. we have struggle with that, and a lot of people have tried to call top. bank of america, morgan stanley. the 10 year is close to 3.1%. tom: we have seen a huge movement, and there are any number of outcomes. it is fascinating. it is about the short-term and the belly of the curve. not the long-term as well. it is anybody's guess, and i will go shock. we are data-dependent. we look at yields. jonathan: we are playing data-dependent bingo. tom: it is good to hear lisa clicking here with her 42 miles she runs in here every day. my running shoes or the other room as

lisa: he is good. you say not bad. jonathan: [indiscernible] tom: a swanson tv dinner, the differential between--and 375. i ticket out of the aluminum. jonathan: call it -- tom: you don't know what a swanson tv dinner is. jonathan: we have talked about it. up 1.1 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date on news around the world with first world news -- first word news, the elon musk deal with twitter is on hold. he announced the delay, he is waiting for details supporting the calculation that span the spam and fake accounts make up less than 5% of users. european union nations say it may be time to delay a push to ban russian oil. they can't persuade hungry to back the import -- embargo. this chancellor says the exit settlement in northern ireland is causing economic and political harm. he was asked whether the u.k. would take action on its own. >> no decision has been taken. our preference has been to have a negotiated settlement and in the foreign secretary continues to engage with counterparts in

lisa: wonderful point. you said it fantastically, and even conceded that the dow may not be representative which i know that jon will play on repeat. this has more of a 2002 feel to it, rather than the dip and buy we have seen over the past couple of decades. tom: we have a team of 42 people that work constantly to be sure we have the right voices here on radio and television. lisa, they go back to back, fed day, and then today, after the market tumult. lisa: we owe our team a lot. tom: let's not go overboard. mcdonald's after the show. futures, -26. stay with us. the secretary, next. ♪ jonathan: this equity market is a mess. from new york city, good morning. equities down, equities up. countdown to the open starts now. >> this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the u.s. payrolls report and a messy equity market. joining us is mike mckee with more. hey. michael: good morning. the message from this payrolls report is if you like the march number, you will

lisa: i like the ecfc function. not sure if it is a forecast and how accurate that has been over the years. futures on the s&p up a little more than 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping up-to-date from news from around the world, president biden arrived in south korea and immediately underscored the importance of resolving the global semiconductor shortage. the president toward a trip factory that is a model for one though company plans to build in texas. this will be good paying jobs and more resilient in the supply chain. bloomberg learn president biden is considering immediate with saudi arabia's money how big bun salmon next week -- mohammad bin salman over the murder of jamaal khashoggi. firms are start to start talks -- sri lanka fell into default this week for the first time in its history and an economic meltdown led to protest and a crisis. the largest maker of agricultural machinery were below estimates. they set high costs had an impact for -- that could lead to farmers pulling investments in machin

jonathan: lisa, we are looking for deceleration. lisa: deceleration but in what? does it matter if it is deceleration in some of the non-core items? the idea of energy driving this with fluctuations in gas. are people looking at lodging, airplane tickets, wages? how much does that end up being the much bigger driver of the fed response? jonathan: the number in five minutes and then the breakdown with mike mckee. great guests coming up. tom: it is about this balance between the nominal economic and the nominal rate and the inflation-adjusted rate so it is not just one moving part here. it is really three items moving around. the word i use, very sophisticated, this is a squishy report coming up. jonathan: chief economist and microstar just joining us very shortly. futures up by little more than 1% on the s&p and the nasdaq up by 1.4%. yields are lower for a third straight session. we are down by four or five basis points. 29461. the inflation print in america up next on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for

[laughter] lisa: i'm just kidding. honestly i think there are big questions, aside from football which i would give you ample time to talk about with all of our wonderful guests. there's an issue on how we deal supply chain's and a new reality at a time when there are new poles of power and this i think is underpinning a lot of people's view on more persistent inflation. tom: this goes back to my book of the year, putin's world and she does not predict this but she brings up the idea here of a return to yalta, of an america, of china and really a re jiggering of things with the president visiting saudi arabia. lisa: and we come offeree of tell sales during us into hard numbers. it is a margin story for a lot of companies dealing with higher inflation, supply chain disruptions. i will point do they continue to go to an inflation story versus a stagflationary type of story? tom: the inflation story to me is a huge deal. we underplay europe inflation this week which is really shocking as well. we are steeled for a weekend

lisa: lisa -- tom: lisa, you can bring your phone and you can look at your bloomberg worksheet. lisa: i love it. i used to play soccer. i enjoy it and i call it soccer because i am, well. jonathan: bloomberg style, just to clarify, is now football, unless you are talking about major league soccer played in america. everywhere else, we refer to it as football. i had a chat with a man from lester about making that happen. the man from lester makes the call. 1.4% on the s&p. tom: how is lester doing this year? jonathan: not good. tom: i am going to be relegated as well. jonathan: this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up to date with the first word. elon musk has put his $44 billion takeover of twitter on hold, and that has shares of the company plunging. he wants more information about the proportion of fake accounts on the social media platforms. in a recent filing, twitter said that fake accounts make up fewer than 5% of users. musk also tweeted that he is still committed to the acquisition. some european union nations say it may be time to consider delaying a push to ban russian oil

lisa. [laughter] lisa: i'm talking about myself and the third person. jonathan: stocks down 2% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: the longest losing streak on the s&p 500. five straight weeks of decline as we hit we six we are down. session lows are down by 2.7%. it gets worse and worse as the session grows older. here is the bond market story. we have seen highs since we haven't seen since 2008. if you go back to 2018, the high was 323.73. these are big moves. tom: let's go back to the equity markets. on the intraday chart on the nasdaq 100, down 2.7% on the futures. this morning, you have to sit on the futures. we have long convexity on the future. what that means is you've got a curve to a lower price on nasdaq futures. jonathan: we are making new session lows with equities and bonds. the dollar index which tracks a basket of currencies with a heavy lean toward the euro is stronger go bank -- going back to 2000 two. this hasn't been talked about enough, the weakness in china,,

lisa: 2014. michael: 2014. at this point it looks like companies are paying up and getting less for it. michael: let's get a clinic on that. while you were yammering away i went to unit labor costs and a fancy chart. the longer term moving average cost get us back to the early 1990's. what does that say know about wage inflation that we may see tomorrow? michael: the numbers suggest we probably will see continued wage inflation. also the fact the employment rate is forecast down to 3.5%. we may not see a lot of gain in the labor force. we are expecting wages to go up. jay powell says the labor market is extremely tight. you want to go back to the 1990's. alan greenspan raised interest rates 300 basis points and we did not have a recession. instead we got a very long and strong expansion. i guess there are two paths we can follow from here. jonathan: payrolls on friday. cpi next week. one of the estimates from morgan stanley. 8.1% down from 8.5%. away from payrolls into cpi, what is the focus for you? michael: i

lisa finds this hard to believe. one of my heroes, and i had the honor to speak to him, he was from ucla. he was a marine coming out of the trenches in economics, saying let's get adult. is this one of his moments right now? andrew: great person. thank you for mentioning him. it is a pivotal moment for fed policy. we saw chair powell this week trying to get things right in that moment. representative walters looking back to this and saying he was willing to do the right thing to bring inflation down, even when it was not necessarily the popular thing. i think that is where that will lay out. we are seeing some throwing things in terms of getting there. we are watching a price spiral. we are not quite there yet. but i think that is where we are going, and that is where the interest rates are moving higher. jonathan: are you setting up your clients to face deceleration and growth? is that starting today? how are you thinking about it and what does that look like in the summer? andrew: this is so much of what is going o

lisa: cue the plea for the road trip. jonathan: i think for global central bankers, that is going to be an important moment. what is the trend for inflation through the summer? lisa: how many more 50 basis point rate hikes can they do? jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. elon musk is casting more uncertainty over whether he will actually by twitter. musk says he won't move ahead with his $44 billion takeover unless twitter can prove that bots make up fewer than 5% of its users. musk has said he believes there are far more fake accounts. meanwhile, twitter says it is committed to completing the deal at the agreed-upon price. shares of walmart are falling. the world's largest retailer missed analyst estimates on first-quarter earnings and skilled back its full-year growth outlook. all mart also missed on its growth margins, citing higher supply chain costs. the u.s. senate has overwhelmingly voted to move towards passage of $14 b

lisa: not in a good way. did they follow the bank of england with a dose of honesty, or do they come out with something more comforting? how they do that when it has gotten away from them, the narrative of inflation tied with slowing growth? jonathan: we are negative on the s&p once again by 1.5%. on the nasdaq, you cannot get a break. down 1.9%. yields are higher on the 10 year by six basis points. looking at 3.20%. the five-year the highest since 2008. lisa: we have gotten so numb to these record highs. every day, to get a new postcrisis five, whether post-pandemic prices or post-pandemic -- or post mortgage crisis, getting that every day is shocking to the system. today we have an incredible lineup. to give us a sense of are we there yet? when do we get capitulation? what are the geopolitical macro risks. really interesting calls on the euro. u.s. deputy treasury secretary, how they deal with the sanctions as well as the tariffs on china at a time of rising geopolitical tension? and the bank of america pri

guy and lisa, believe it or not. we're going to take another quick break and come back to "mosaic" in just a moment. >>> been a bit of a seesaw ride on the temperatures. we'll take a look ahead on what to expect monday. >>> good morning and welcome back to owe mosaic." i'm ran by eric weis. we're here with lisa countryman, who's the chief strategic officer at jvs and joined by nuria reyes. you went to the jvs refresher program? >> yes. >> jvs lets the community know what it's doing. can you talk more about how jvs lets the public know it's working. >> opportunities like this are an occasion to do that. our big event is strictly business, which is our annual luncheon. that's our big fundraising event of the year. it's really a celebration of the people who have benefitted from our programs and an opportunity to showcase our fantastic employer partnerships. nuria is going to be honored as one of our employees of the year at strictly business. >> congratulations. what brought you to jvs? >> i was struggling to find jobs

lisa: this has been the idea people have. how far does the fed have to go to become restrictive, and does that mean if we do get yield curve inversion recession again? jonathan: empire manufacturing absolutely dreadful. futures unchanged on the s&p, unchanged on the nasdaq. tom: is newcastle united dreadful? jonathan: they are not that dreadful anymore. they are better at this point in the season than they were about six months ago. you need them to win, tom? or at least get some kind of result? tom: it's in the middle of the "surveillance" nap. jonathan: you will wake up and watch it? this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. twitter is now on course to wipe out all of the gains the stock has made since elon musk disclosed his stake in the company. chairs are lower in premarket trading. on friday, musk tweeted that the deal is on hold, but that he is still committed to buying. after a trip to kyiv, senate republican leader mitch mcconnell says he

lisa: of course he doesn't. [laughter] tom: let's talk about what matters, which is brent crude $115. an hour ago, even with a good tape and the data check we need to do, brent front and center. jonathan: futures up 1.5% come of the nasdaq up by 2%. that tells you about the lack of confidence after we have been beaten up in this market so badly over the last few months. you'd's higher by three basis points. that inverse correlation is back. yields bouncing by three basis points. 3.20% the high two months ago. tom: now joining us, and this is a really important conversation for you on radio and television, with 30 plus years of brown brothers harriman, synthesizes and all of the eco-bible into the markets -- eco-babble into the markets. all of the fed speakers, how do you tell them to calm down about inflation? tom: i think it pays -- >> i think it pays to be a simpleminded economist given what you laid out at the top of the hour. i would run the fed -- i would remind the fed that the price of anything is the int

lisa: there are two issues here. there's the legal procedural issue, that this is a first draft and the supreme court wants to act with finality when it gets released. the idea that it is being parsed through and that people are undecided is the issue of could justices be politically motivated or swayed one way or another. then there's the issue of the midterm elections, how it will affect them even the fact that this is the third rail. it will galvanize voters. how much does this really help democrats going into those midterms because it will get some of those suburban women into the voting booth? joe: you just had the word there, suburban. that is where control of washington is likely to be decided. that is where the story is truly going to resonate. it is very difficult to tell, when you consider everything else in the air right now. how exactly this might land and peoples minds. it does have the promise of changing the calculus when you start talking about single issue voters. this is one of those issues that wil

lisa: i was not. looking forward there was a concern about how to deal with interest rate sensitivity of a market that does not know what to do with 3% or 4% yield on a 10 year. jonathan: we are working out what to do with this. the s&p 500 down 1.5%. let us work through the price action, that is equities and here is bonds. yields 2.8172. 320 on a 10 year monday and now three basis points south of that level. the fx market everything stronger. euro-dollar out of 105. 1.496. lisa: a lot of people watching and a couple of weeks time. the ecb meeting. the retail earnings get cold before the market opens. stores around 4:00 p.m. eastern time following target down 25%. the biggest draw down going back to 1987. we were talking about how much we could reduce margin -- margin pressure and how much is it a shift in the mix of goods or people staying away from bigger ticket items and leaving a lot of retailers in disarray with inventories that do not fit the demand of the moment. we have smooth economic data in