reporter: thanks, chair powell. from axios. to build a bit on what steve was asking, do you believe the u.s. is in a recession currently, will the reading tomorrow affect that judgment one way or the other, end has your assessment of the risk of recession changed in recent weeks? chairman powell: i don't think the u.s. is currently in recession. the reason is there are too many areas of the economy performing too well. i would point to the labor market in particular. as i mentioned, it is true that growth is slowing, and for reasons we understand really, growth was extraordinarily high last year, five point 5%. there is also more slowing going on now. look at the labor market, period jobs averaging 450,000 per month, remarkably strong level. the unemployment rate at three point 6%, near if 50-year low. all the measures we track are running very strong so it is a very strong labor market, just not consistent with the -- you had 2.7 million people hired in the first half of the year. it doesn't make sense that the economy would b

charles: there he is, jay powell. >> good afternoon. my colleagues and i are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down and we're moving expeditiously to do so. we have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of american families and businesses. the economy and the country have been through a lot over the past two-and-a-half nears and have proved resilient. it is essential that we bring inflation down to our 2% goal if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all from the standpoint of our congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability the current picture is plain to see. the labor market is extremely tight and inflation is much too high. against this backdrop today the fomc raised its policy interest rate by 3/4 of a percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate. in addition we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size o

powell and others were proposing? do you remember anything along the lines being saidy president trump? >> i do. that sounds right. >> i think that it got to th point where the screaming was completely, completely out there. i mean, you got people walk in, it was late at night, had been a long day. and what they were proposing i thought was nuts. >>'m going to -- i'm going to categocally describe it asou guys are not tough enough. or maybe i put it other wa you' a bunch of pussies. excuse the expression, but that that's i -- i'm most certain the word was used. >> flynn seamed at me that i was a quter and evything, kept on standing up and turning around and screaming at me. and at a certain point iad it with him. i yelled back better come over. beer sit your effing ass back down. >> the president and the whi house team went upstairs to the resince, but to the public part of the residence. you kn, the big -- the big parlor where you can have meetings in the conferce room. >> yellow oval. they call that the yellow level.

tom: powell power rally. even as economists declared the fed chair hawkish, stoxx search, with the nasdaq 100 climbing the most since november 2020. the gains continue in asia. more tech torment. meta-slides post market after its first-ever revenue decline, while samsung profit misses on muted chip demand. attention now turns to apple and amazon. happy thursday. it is a major day for earnings, a mega day for earnings, 9.4 trillion dollars of market cap in terms of the companies reporting. volkswagen coming out with a beat. the earnings adjusted second quarter operating profit at 4.7 4 billion, 4.7 4 billion in the second quarter. the estimates were for 4.1 billion so it's a beat in terms of vw's second-quarter adjusted operating profit. it sees a robust second half on strong demand and easing supply chain pain as well. in terms of margins, second-quarter operating margins came in at 6.5% versus 9.7% year on year. it see -- it is seemed slightly softer margins. operating profit for the first half came in at 13

miss powell and others were, so why not try what miss powell and others were proposing. do you remember anything along those lines being said about president trump? >> i do. that sounds right. >> i think it got to the point where the screaming was completely, completely out there. people walking in, late at night, they had a long day. what they were proposing i thought was nuts. >> i'm gonna categorically describe it as you guys are not tough enough. or maybe i'll put it another way, you're a bunch of policies, excuse the expression. i'm almost certain the word was used. >> kept on standing up and standing around screaming at me. as a certain point i had it with him. i yield back. either come over or sit your effing aspect down. >> the president and the white house team went upstairs to the residence, in the big parlor where you can have meetings in a conference room. >> they call it the yellow oval. >> yes, exactly. the yellow oval office. i always called it the upper. i'm not exactly sure where the group went. maybe the roosevelt room. i stayed in the cabinet room, whi

tom: do we agree the bond market yesterday was really twisted as fed powell -- as chair powell was speaking? what did you see across the curve? jonathon: the front end dropping and moving way. the body believes we have much left for the federal reserve to do. i'm not sure of that. i mentioned at the top of the program and i will say it again. the fed is trying to shift away from forward guidance, becoming completely data-dependent meeting by meeting. when they shift toward that, the market is filling in the spaces. they are coming to the conclusion that this is a dovish move. tom: we are going to go back to what chairman powell had for lunch. you up-to-date, meta drawdown. jonathon: facebook drawdown. tom: meta-. however you want to say. jonathon: i am pleased you did the work. tom: currency is flat. we are watching the euro and it can't get any love. frances donald is with us now. very good at the workings of our gdp. what are we not analyzing in today's gdp first look? what is the big mystery? >> the big mystery is not today's gdp at all. today's gdp will tell us what we already know, whi

>> hi, chair powell. thanks for taking our questions. rachel if you can walk us through your thinking of not to go to a full percentage points increase we saw a ramp up in may. the cpi report came in hotter than usual and the june figure did, too was there any discussion of a stronger hike at this meeting? thank you. >> sure. so wÑ■did judge that a 75 basis-point increase was the mgity in ud in light of the data with the approximately see rate that we've been making i would say we wouldn't hesitate to make an even larger move if the committee were to conclude that that were appropriate that was not the case at this meeting. there was very broad support for the move that we made. we mentioned that the june meeting, we've said many times that we were prepared to move more aggressively if inflation continued to disappoint and that's why we did move at the pace and we continued at that more aggressive pace as inflation has continued to disapp■■nt in the form of the june cpi rating. >> thank you sá■(

. >> i walked in, i saw sydney powell sitting there. i was not happy to see the people in the oval office. overstock person. i looked at him and said who are you? i don't think any of these people were providing the present with good advice. i didn't understand how they got in. >> alleged conspirators invited into the white house by the president with bizarre results. >> can the federal government seize voting machines? it's a terrible idea. >> -- come over back down -- >> i asked pat cipollone if he had the authority to make me special counsel and he said yes. >> a mob summoned by the president to come not just to the national capitol setting, but to the u.s. capitol building. >> we are going to be only saved by millions of americans moving to washington, occupying the entire area, if necessary storming right into the capitol. >> there's gonna be a red wedding going down january six. >> so why did you decide to march to the capitol? >> basically, the president got everybody riled up and told everybody to come down, so we basically just

jonathan: coming up, chair powell hikes the market, his cuts as the economy delivers negative growth and price pressure. -- pressure remains elevated. we begin with pricing out the fed. >> we are beginning to here some signs of the fed have it. >> the signs of the fed pivot. >> there are two reasons to price the fed pivot. >> whether or not there is a recession -- >> we are still at great risk of a recession. >> the second argument is chair powell in his unscripted remark said we are neutral. >> the pivot everyone is talking about. >> we still see core inflation accelerating. >> the fed is pivoting here. >> powell endorsed this message of data dependence. >> they are feeling enough optimism of the markets. >> the market is looking for a pivot. >> where the markets are pricing now is not right. >> financial markets seem to be pivoting prematurely. >> even the fed itself don't know what to do in september. jonathan: and we don't know either. our guests join us, and also mino to run out the week. more important to fed rates this federal reserve, growth or inflation? >> it has been an et

powell and her colleagues where's the evidence? >> a varie of responses based on my cuent recoection including, you know, i can't believe you would say something, like, you know, things like this. like, "what do you mean where's the evidence? you should know." things like that or -- a disregard, i would say, a general disregard for the importance of actually backing up what you y with facts. >> and, you kn, then there was discussion of, well, you know, we don't have it now but we wil have ior whatever. >> i mean, if it had been me sitting in his chair, i would have fired all of them that night and had them escorted out of the building. >> which derek and i both challenged what she was saying. and shsays, well, the judges are corrupt. and i was like, every one? every single case that you've done in the country you guys lost, every one of them is corrupt? even the ones appointed? and i'm being nice. i was ch more harsh to her. >> so one of the other things that's been reported that was said during this meeting was that president trum

fed chair powell acknowledged the softness in the economy. we got that first in his statement. he really did drive home what he's seeing in terms of consumer spending, business investment, housing weakness, even acknowledged some of the weakness right now in the labor market and importantly he did not precommit to what the fed would do on rate hikes for september. i thought one of the key moments when he said it will depend on the data the next meeting is in september and there will be more data between now and then joining us now on fed days, former national economic director gary cohn welcome. >> thanks, sara. glad to be here. >> it's the gary cohn rally, the market rallies was it just a lot of the hiking news is baked in and now it goes the other way? >> i think the news was baked in, the market anticipated pretty poor earnings out of the tech sector this week. weep got through crucial earnings yesterday and more this evening. we will have to get through those as well. the chairman himself came out with a dovish statement, talked about being in the neutral range. he talked a

it possibly that jay powell knows the number. the point is that we have this very strong labor market. we're in this weird situation. the fed is supposedly according to the markets, they're going to raise rates rapidly before the end of the year and then amazingly next year he's going to start bringing them down again. i don't think anybody believes -- >> neil: that's what he's betting on. that might be a leap. >> that's what the fed is saying. that's what they believe. i don't think it's credible. >> neil: steve moore, i do want your quick take. technology stocks advanced. the nasdaq up over 4% that is despite grim numbers that we're getting out of the microsofts and all of these other big players including google. if we can show how the nasdaq did today. they were all up smartly. i'm wondering if that is because they were beaten down so much. this group is sensitive to rate hikes. but now we're starting to see that maybe, maybe it was overdone and they're going to come back and this is the news that helps them come back what do

i saw sydney powell sitting there. i was not happy to see the people who are in the oval office. >> explain why. >> well, again, i don't think they were providing -- first of all, and overstock person i've never met, i never knew, i don't know who this person wants. actually, the first thing i did, i walked in, i looked at him, i said who are you? and he told me, i don't think any of these people were providing the president with good advice. >> and -- so, i didn't understand how they had gotten in. >> i was asked, to cling to, you think the democrats were working with venezuelans, and whomever else at, one point? general flynn took out a diagram that supposedly showed, people all over the world, and who was communicating with whom, via the machines, and some comment about like stats being hooked up to the internet. >> so, it's been reported during this meeting, as powell talked about dominion voting machines, and made various election fraud claims that involved foreign countries, such as venezuela, iran, and china, is

try what miss powell and others were proposing. do you remember anything along those lines being said by president trump? >> i do, that sounds right. >> i think it got to the point where the screaming was completely, completely out there, i mean, you have people walk in, late at night, it had been a long day and what they were proposing i thought was nuts. >> i'm going to describe it as you guys are not tough enough, or maybe i put it another way, you are a bunch of pussies, excuse the expression. i'm almost certain the word was used. >> screamed at me that i was a quitter, and standing up and turning around and screaming at me, a certain point i had it with him and i yelled back. either come over or sit your f-ing ass back down. >> the president and the white house team went upstairs to the residence but to the public part of the residence, the big parlor where you can have meetings in the conference room. >> they call it the yellow oval>> yes, exactly, the yellow oval office, i always called it the upper. and i'm not exactly sure

the powell pivot. he hinted at it, the market believes it's going to happen. all the experts though, michael, say forget about it, it's far too early for that. what are you thinking? >> i'm with them. youn't can't operate under a 2010 playbook. they're not going to cut rates the moment the market quivers. people are over their skis on that, inflation's way too high. my take is that investors are way too ahead of their skis on cuts. charles: all right, fantastic stuff. hey k i'm telling you, you guys have been fantastic helping us navigate, have a great weekend rob, michael and erin. >>> coming up, real wages and savings are plummeting, folks. we've got some numbers we haven't seen in more than a decade or two with. what does the it mean for the average american? can the markets be headed in the right direction? we've got to go back to chart school for hinges to change bigtime. -- things to change bigtime. that's next. ♪ right here, right now. ♪ right here, right now. ♪ right here, right now ♪♪ [whistling] with technology that can scale across all you

that is how powell frame this today. we think he will have the same aggressive guidance with 75 going forward the next meeting and it will take a clear and consisting evidence. i think what the market is under appreciating is to get that pivot, you need to have the recession happening in the back half of the year, 6% unemployment, to get lower than what the market is pricing for the fed turmoil right now. that is by even their most dovish policy roles. in our view, the market is under appreciating how committed the fed will have to be to bring inflation down. kriti: if that is the case then, why not go 100 basis points? why not put it all out there? what is the point of slowing down those increments now? brett: i think from powell's perspective and others in the committee, they are of the long and variable legs of committee. the 75 is a decisive move that shows they are responding to inflation and they really do not want to add more disruption to markets, especially with q2 acting -- qt acting in the background as a tigh

jerome powell and they. >> you have jobs averaging 400 a month. we know that markets are worried about the yield curve, there is no long and variable lag when it comes to the job in yields. what it has done to the u.s. are zinc market -- to the u.s. housing market. jerome powell also said job markets felt robust, he thinks it is possible there is a path to a soft landing. they think they can get it done. when he to see growth potential. -- we need to see potential. after the fed presser, they said the fed would have to hike rates quite a bit more than markets expect. may be the markets are over anticipating the fed and i would say that is one of the key takeaways from today. heidi: let us get you the latest market reactions. we are looking at this rally where just 85% of the companies actually rose overnight. how long current and resilient what this rebound be -- how long-term and resilient what this rebound be? >> the market was looking for anything positive from this decision. there were certain grounds throughout for investors and that is what

here's what jay powell said. listen to this, he's really questioning all kinds of data that he's seen but this was a shocker to us and you get to say whether you see a recession. here's jay powell. >> we don't say there's now a recession and that kind of thing. that wouldn't be something we do. we would look at the data tomorrow and no doubt we'll look at it very carefully and draw whatever implications we (&.k as i mentioned though, if you think about what inflation -- sorry, what a recession really .s it's a broad based decline across many industries that's sustained for more than a couple of months and a bunch of specific tests and this doesn't seem like that now. what we have right now doesn't seem like that and the real reason is that the labor market is just sending such a strong signal of economic strength that is makes you really question the gdp data. >> question the gdp -- do you, brian? are you questioning the gdp data? are we in a recession or not by this time tomorrow? jimmy graham think a lot of peo

i saw sidney powell sitting there. i was not happy to see the people who were in the oval office. >> explain why. >> well, yeah, i don't think they were providing -- the overstock person i didn't know who this guy was. actually, the first thing i did, i walked in, i looked at him, and i said who are you? and he told me. i don't think any of these people were providing the president with good advice and so i didn't understand how they had gotten in. >> there it was. still stunning. watching it play back and having processed it. talk about what this means, though, in terms of potential criminality, not just for the president. we'll get to that but for all the people involved in the coup plot. >> it's looking bad for all of them. let me start with the president. it follows directly from that quote we just saw. what it shows is that sidney powell, the president orchestrated to name her special counsel. the idea that she's special counsel to anyone is frightening, but particularly to the united states government. and one of

i saw sydney powell sitting there. i was not happy to see these people, in the oval office. >> explain why. >> again, i don't think they were providing, first of all, the overstock person, i've never met with this guy was. actually, the first instance i walked in, i looked up and said, who are you? and he told me, i don't think any of these people were providing the president with good advice. and so, i didn't understand how they had gotten in. >> in the short period of time, you had with the president, he seems disk distracted to the presentation where you are making? >> he was very interested in hearing particularly, about the -- [inaudible] but apparently nobody else has bothered to inform him of. >> -- [inaudible] and whomever else, and at one point, general flynn took out a diagram, that supposedly showed, people all over the world, and -- who was communicating with home via machines, and some comments about like a thermostat being hooked up with the internet. >> when you ask this panel -- >> a variety of response

chair powell does not see a u.s. recession. this was across the australian on market, all the way down to the 10 year. we saw the reversal given that we have bonds really reacting in the cpi number, missing expectations. the three year yield popping, pulling back -- dropping, pulling back the rba hikes as well. let us look at the to head for new zealand. the activity outlook index, we are watching retail sales numbers. australian trader -- a lower growth outlook for this fiscal year and a cut to the gdp as well as higher interest rates. the australia open after the biggest auto producer reported earnings that fell short for expectations. that is a tough act to follow. we are looking at the outlook and china risks. >> rio tinto warning of a flow of global growth -- a slow of global growth. goldman sachs iron ore falling as well. the overwhelming bulk of their earning comes from -- their earnings come from iron ore. rio tinto's as a forecast of $500 million to $7.5 million. there was a miss coming at $8.5 billion. half of what we

david: the other side to that argument, jeff gundlach praising the fed saying jeff powell -- jay powell has regained credibility and is no longer behind the curve. i will use the analogy of neutral, is the credibility of the fed back in neutral? >> i would say that if the 10 year yield is close to the longer run neutral rate, then it seems everything is lined up. if that is the measure of whether the fed's angle is working, then it says yes. i don't think they ever really lost it. i think the market valuation is not wrong. the market is telling you that the fed's credibility and the inflation is completely intact. obviously we can overshoot and undershooting around that central tendency, but i think everything is just fine. in the meantime, that had to deliver some pretty difficult rate moves, because there was a time when they might've been somewhat behind the curve. but i think we are past that now. yvonne: is the ecb past it? i don't think so. given the energy crisis we are seeing in europe right now, what can the ecb do, and what options do they have at this point? >> the ecb has so

jay powell hiking 75 basis points. that was not unexpected, it was the guidance again and the views. the divergence between the economists who said this was a hawkish fed and the emphasis on looking back six weeks to dot polot -- plots. that is not how the markets are interpreting the guidance that we got from jay powell. the spanish ibex up 0.7%. there is optimism around the asian session as well. gains of about 0.8%. spanish ibex up around 0.7%. here in the u.k., the ftse 100 up 0.6%. oil is higher today. we will talk about the shale story, speaking to the ceo. whether or not you can see a build out of the gains we saw yesterday on wall street. nasdaq ending up more than 4%. the drawdown in terms of the yields. nasdaq futures pointing lower by 0.5%. the two-year stateside, not a lot of movement. one or two basis points. the divergence still remains. the bloomberg dollar index, some softness yesterday. some relief across the surrency -- currency space. the end of the short move of the yen is the question. elevated pri

we all need the guidance and i'm not sure powell is prepared to give it. this is the important outcome of this meeting today is what he tells us about the future. and i don't think he's ready to do it. i think there's going to be an interesting tap dance by the chair here he gets two more inflation reports. we get that important gdp number tomorrow morning and the claim number is something to watch it's an evolving, moving economy. in fact, it moved today where you had a bunch of economists upgrade their second quarter gdp forecast as a result of the data that came out. less likely to be negative right now. still in line with a slowing economy. but not necessarily negative tomorrow morning >> he's been more transparent than i remember any fed chief being in repeat times telling you, we're going to do 75. the question is now, in september whether -- as he's been in the past, if not, what the market takes away from that. >> scott, i'm goin he has been very transparent with where he's going, but there's a lot the lack of a framework here web, relived in a reg

that is something i think powell is dealing with now. there is a lot of variables the fed does not know. what they should do is what a good race driver is due, not signal their strategy too much. when i have someone in front of me and i know they are trying to predict where i'm going to go left or right, i tried to surprise them. with the markets that might be a good idea. if the market knows it will be too restrictive, they will have a negative reaction. the fed should be more careful without signaling -- about signaling expressively. kriti: there are calls for 100 basis points tomorrow. we will dive into all of that with representatives of those banks tomorrow. what kind of difference does those potential 25 basis wins make? -- points make? max: i don't believe the fed will do a 100 basis point hike. they have been good over the last decade, even before chairman powell, at getting the market expectations for the upcoming meeting to match the reality. i think 75 basis points is priced in, like we have the 75 hike leaked right before the

did _ cars from overseas. jerome powell did something i cars from overseas. jerome powell did something he i cars from overseas. jerome i powell did something he hasn't done since rate hikes begun in much he avoided putting exact numbers on the size of the next rate hike. that's not stopping the likes of you guys from filling in the blanks question. absolutely. that was a big surprise the need for guidance on future rate hikes, did tip the markets off they will continue to raise rates and he might even do another unusually large one according tojerome powell. but they are not tipping their hand yet another month and a half before the cpi reports before then so they want to keep options open. i think they will raise it by a few basis points in september and may be two more court—appointed rate hikes in november and december leading us up to four point 4% on the target rate by the end of the year. target rate by the end of the ear. �* , year. after this interview i will talk — year. after this interview i will talk about _ year. after this interview i will talk about meat i year. af

it looked like it would be weak and then it came back because as jay powell said yesterday, it feels like it tastes right it's the goldilocks scenario and that we may be in a recession. he said unlikely but if the second quarter was a slowdown and the first quarter negatives two in a row, you need a few other factors. but if we're having a recession and things aren't falling off a cliff, that's pretty good news we're having earningsnot as ba as expected. that's the big catch phrase, that we're all seeing numbers that are week, but they're not horribly weak for the most part. a few very disappointing like snap, netflix bad, but not too bad. google bad, but again the market liked it if we can continue on that trajectory and get through this weakness in the conomy, i thin that says that perhaps by the end of the year we'll have run the course, meaning inflation will be down, interest rates have come down already employment may be down, but that may be -- as serat said, wages may be down and that's a better picture. the market, by the way, is showing some support at the 50-day moving ave

here's what fed chief to rome. powell had to say. we do see that there are 2 sided risks. there would be the risk of doing too much and, and you know, imposing more of a downturn on the economy than, than was necessary. but the risk, the risk of doing too little and leaving the economy with this entrenched inflation, it only raises the cost. if you fail to deal with it. in the near term, it only raises the cost of dealing with it. later. i'm joined now by gerald coin. he's the chief economist that the keenan institute of private enterprise. welcome gerald. so we just heard j powell. they're asking about the risk of doing too much versus too little. do you think today's fed decision fell along either of those categories or is it just right? i think it's just rate for the conditions, economic conditions that we have. and in particular the inflation and inflation and the very odd job market that. ready we have to say it is facing this dilemma that they realize that they, they, we have very high inflation. people are really worried about it. it's affecting consumer behavior th

over to you, chairman powell. >> chair powell. >> with the fed meeting next week. >> the fed is going to stay right on top. >> powell has made that clear. >> kind of locked in. >> a lot of central banks are frontloading the rate hikes. >> 75 basis hike. >> you're not expecting forward guidance from the fed. >> some of this is messaging. >> keenly aware. jonathan: joining us now. the weaker data that we saw this morning on pmi out of europe and specifically in the united states, is that part of the fed's grand plan? >> i think the fed like all of us have been seeing the data have been weakening in several different places, in the u.s. when you look at some of the underlying data the labor market, the pmi data, when you look at the investment, when you look at the new orders -- particularly the services, i do think particular negative with the reopening after covid and the economy i think shift from people's behaviors. they start to travel more and doing more, i think we were expecting services to be a bit more of a support. so it is a negative. that said, i don't think that will stop t

lake mead and lake powell reached their lowest levels ever recorded. currently lake mead sitting at 29% capacity while lake powell currently is that 27% capacity. these lake levels put hydropower, critical to current future liability the west at risk because the water must be high enough to turn turbines. in fact, north america electric reliability corporation, low levels among the challenges to maintain liability in the west for the coming summer. future water projections also look grim and if water levels continued to decline, it was trickle the most severe cuts for the southwest. this is incredibly alarming to everyone. reservoirs are crucial source of water to millions of households thousands of farmers and ranchers wildlife habitat and provide power for over 3.5 million homes with multiple entities competing for limited water resources that reclamation facilities provide no doubt there will be tough decisions ahead to allocate water supplies. and provide bureau of reclamation, historical not a funding bipartisan infrastructure law, $8.3 billion to

jonathan: how will chairman powell navigate some of the stuff? how do you expect them to acknowledge some of the weaker data points we have already seen? andrew: tomorrow, we might getq2 gdp, it could be slightly positive, it could be negative. on friday, we will get the employment cost index which will probably show strong wage pressure. we have an inflation situation that looks more problematic. you have growth that is slowing. it goes back to what we were talking about initially. it is painful to bring inflation down once you have too high inflation. i do not think he will completely stick to the hawkish message from june. peak hawkish notice from june. i think there will be acknowledgment of the data from june that could be dovish. jonathan: let's talk about the dovish detailer. do you think the easing of financial conditions will become problematic? andrew: i think that is what the fed is trying to figure out fed really, it takes time for the financial conditions to work their way into the economy, slow down demand and eventually affect infl

and flynn in the oval office and told trump, naming powell special counsel was a grave mistake. >> it's a terrible idea. that's not how we do things in the united states. i don't think anyone is providing the president with good advice, and so i didn't understand how they had gotten in. >> reporter: cipollone also describing his frustration, dealing with people who couldn't produce any evidence of widespread voter fraud. >> in this regard i would say, a general disregard for the importance of facts. >> reporter: afterwards, trump shifting gears, but not backing down from his pursuit of pushing election lies, tweeting, the next day, and invitation to his supporters to descend on washington on january 6. >> be there. will be wild, the president wrote. >> reporter: the committee also presented a draft tweet obtained from the national archives, showing trump land before january 6, to tell his supporters, please arrive early , massive crowds expected, march to the capitol after. this, despite members of trump's cabinet and inner circle testifying that they told trump he lost the election and

to your point, powell seemed apologetic. that his job will hurt certain racial demographics, women, overall labor participation. they won't get back to where they were in february 2020. in fact he is going to hammer them even more. so i guess the street saw that as the first opportunity he gets a chance he will turn dovish. is that what you felt as well? >> yeah. so i think he said, you know, reading between the lines recession is becoming increasingly likely. then winked and nod at the moments when that happens they will lower rates again, which is why you have this perverse outcome. we've been living through this for since the great financial crisis where we've been driving our economy with monetary policy. wall street rallies when main street gets into trouble. that is exactly what you know was signaling recession. lower interest rates, juice the stock valuations. that is what we're been living with since the great financial crisis. sounds like that is what we're going back to again. that is what he was signaling. that is

so we just heard j powell there about the risk of doing too much versus too little. do you think today's fed decision fell along either of those categories or is it just right? i think it's just right for the conditions, economic conditions that we have and, and in particular, the inflation is the inflation and am a very hot job market that we have. i think the fed is facing this dilemma that they feel like they they, we have very high inflation. ready people are really worried about it, it's affecting consumer behavior the their greatest concern. and this is the lesson learned from the 19 seventies and 1880 s is that it becomes in train, the u. s. it is that it becomes entrenched. and so people start to, to behave as if inflation at, you know, very high rates is going to continue. and then the cost of tamping that down as the u. s. learned in the, in the, in 1000 early, 980 is, is very painful. so i think he's saying we're willing, hoping not to, but willing to, to have some pain today or in the near future to a who are in more pain tomorrow. so the point is to make

so chair powell said that they're going to take the data as it comes, and respond as it comes. but it's a really really challenging situation that the fed is in, and i don't envy them. >> but catherine, do you think that there was a different alternative to the 3/4% hike, i mean, in order to slow down demand? >> some people were calling for the fed to raise rates by even higher in this one meeting. some people were calling for a 1 percentage point hike which would be extremely aggressive, and something that, you know, americans would probably not be ready for given how we've experienced fed policy over the past few decades. there are other people, i mean, you look at what democratic lawmakers are calling for. they're saying that they think the fed is raising rates too aggressively. i think they're wrong on that. this is a medicine that has to be delivered, even if it's a painful, a bitter pill that we have to swallow. it's not fun to have tightening financial conditions. it's not fun to be potentially on the verge of a recession, but given where inflation is, i don't think the

what miss powell and others were proposing. do you remember anything along those lines being said by president trump? >> i do. that sounds right. >> trump rewarded thatted about behavior by offering powell a job as a special counsel with top level security clearance when his white house lawyers including pat cipollone and eric herschmann pushed against it because powell was pushing unhinged conspiracy theories. >> shortly before we left and totally blew up is in cipollone and/or hirshman and whoever the other young man was you can name her whatever you want to name her and no one is going to pay any attention to it. >> how did the president respond to that? >> something like you see what i deal with. i deal with this all the time. >> from december 14th through january 6th trump continued to surround himself with coup sympathizers including ten congressional republicans who were tasked with deploying his plan on january 6th. on december 21st trump spearhead at ming with those members to make sure they were all on the same page.

first of all, i think fed chairman powell conducted himself very well. he'll be criticized again. this is an inventory glut recession. there's gluts on almost -- a glut in housing, clearly a glut in things that are in retail, best buy and confirmed with walmart. but we can't find more workers, so at the same time we need companies to -- i don't mean to sound -- to lay off people and that is not happening. the first time i've seen anything like that was in stanley black & decker, which was a total disaster of a quarter. we don't have enough labor, but we unfortunately have inventory gluts across the board, which is going to make it so it's very hard to raise price and therefore i think jay powell can come back september, raise smaller. >> no longer behind the curve. >> jeffrey has been very good. >> now, those who wanted 100 basis points, those who wanted a hike intermeeting, are they now looking back and thinking that would have been a mistake? >> well, they have to -- they were doing suboptimal thinking and they've been ill-advised i think it's time that it's okay to be able to s

some find powell's remarks downright hawkish. powell said the economy may have to run below potential to bring inflation down, and that would mean we have to run in restrictive territory. we worry that some of the markets might be seeing the pivot they want to see from one phase of policy to another that is naturally more data -dependent. now powell reiterated the meeting forecast for 2022 for the fed as the best way to know where the fed is going, but the market you can see has that priced in at 280 for the year. so there is one famous observer who said that's the rub right there. the fed chair raising rates to 380? if the fed thinks this market has this wrong, we might hear some hawkish talk in the weeks ahead by fed officials to reach that expectation. so this might be one of the things where the market knows the fed better than the fed knows itself. >> what are we going to see today, steve? what do you think? >> yesterday after that data, joe, i hinted at this. i didn't have the information in front of me, but the major data

i saw sidney foul powell sitting there. i was not happy to see the people in the oval office. >> first of all, the overstock person, i had no idea who this guy was. the first thing i did, i walked in, i looked at him and said," who are you?" he told me. i don't think any of these people were providing the president with good advice. i didn't understand how they had gotten in. >> in the short period of time that you had with the president, that he seemed receptive to the presentation you are making? >> he was very interested in hearing particularly about the terms of 138 for a that apparently nobody else bothered to inform them of. super learning and hirschman and whoever the other guy was showed nothing but contempt and disdain of the president. >> the three of them were really sort of forcefully attacking -- verbally -- and we were pushing back. we were asking simple questions as a general matter. where is the evidence? >> if it had been me sitting in his chair, i would have fired all of them at night and have them escorte

it was all over the place. >> was it sydney powell? >> i do not believe it was sydney powell. it was somebody else. >> for context, everyone, when that meeting took place, it was four days after the electoral college had met in the 50 state capitals, it was a done deal, the election was over. mitch mcconnell comes out. one of the last sort of establishment republicans come out, he was giving trump as much time as possible for these lawsuits wait for the electric college on the 18th, and then, said congratulate -- you had passed below knee today in his deposition that was recorded saying, that was the timeline he felt. so when pat cipollone is running down the hall to see what is going on this, meeting he's already had come to the conclusion that this was a completely done election, and, yet the president of the united states was still consumed by this one thing of trying to find some way to hang on to this office, totally subverting the constitution while doing so if he were to be successful, when in fact, he had lost the election. >> i want to, know what was going on in the m