tom: i just don't know. -- is real? tom: i just don't know. the news flows extreme area, the reading over the weekend will be extraordinary. we have great guests in the next 30 minutes you will hear from paul sankey on oil and the surge in natural gas in the moments -- and the moments jeffrey yu will join us. lisa: how much trading is this? you talk to people all morning long and how many people, and say it is then, it is august, go on vacation because no one is out kailey: there making volume. kailey:everything seems more dramatic in the summertime because there are less people at play but there is a sense that that is shifting, that this is maybe something more substantial. the bear market rally narrative persistent for so long does feel like it is morphing as the market sees this week as a turning point but in the federal reserve's become a we have gotten it is not clear policy makers agree. mary daly and others all talking about how they think they have more work to do. the fight against inflation is not over. the market does not seem like

tom: see you in september ♪ jonathan: you saying that? lisa: tom did. jonathan: futures are unchanged, from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world inflation in the eurozone zone has set another all-time high with consumer prices at 9.1% in august from a year ago. it indicates the european central bank will it indicate a jumbo rate hike next week. the justice department says the documents at mar-a-lago may have been moved before. in a filing, there was of photo files labeled top-secret found in the former president's office. they want to appoint a special master to review the documents. it's the biggest two-year decline in life expectancy and's almost a century on the covid pandemic. the pandemic has been directly responsible for more than one million american deaths. shares are falling at snap chat and they plan to lay off 20% of its employees today. the stock has fallen almost 80% this year. they are struggling with the slow in spending. micheal gorbachev is being remembered as the leader wh

tom: after we watch uba. jonathan: they do not play good football, tom. tom: they are. jonathan: they are good for what? tom: family network, jon. i do not know what he is talking about. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: u.s. and taiwan following through on a promise to deepen ties to fight opposition from china. the countries will start formal talks on a trade and economic initiative this fall. there trade will be more said -- symbolic than substantive. in the u.k., the summer of discontent is about to get worse. britain's face some of the most widespread disruption yet due to strikes on rail burgers -- rail workers and bus stops. that will be a eight day straw -- strike by. workers. more legal problems for the long time cfo of the trump administration -- trump organization, expected to plead guilty to tax fraud. bloomberg has learned he will not implicate the former president, but will be required to testify against the company. trouble department store chains blasted outlook for the fall year, customers have been hurt by inflation and taking steps to cut inventory

tom: was i? jonathan: just about. tom: i was celebratory last night over the padres. jonathan: to tom's point, to put that meeting together face-to-face, in person, it gets harder after yesterday. lisa: one to how much they knew this would all happen? how much this was basically the conversation they had last week because of people start to talk about it, they start to have a more and more contentious tenor to a given some communications, the most contentious in years between the u.s. and china. jonathan: we will guide you through the latest headlines and opec-plus. that meeting just started, according to delegates. will review the headlines as they come through on this day in vienna with the opec-plus meeting some speculate whether we get a plus output boost. it is opec wednesday, tom. i know you are excited. it will only last 15 minutes. futures of .5. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up to date. nancy pelosi has ended her trip to taiwan after watching the u.s. would not abandon it. the house speaker reaffirmed american support for the democratically elected go

tom: have you ever been on it, tom --, jon? soccer saturday? jonathan: no. tom: it's good. jonathan: i will try to figure it out for you next season. i'm i pushing you or are you pushing me? tom: i think he could be a guest on there. jonathan: i would love to. just on a sunday evening, just as a hobby. futures up. down, rather. pay attention, lisa. [laughter] lisa: seriously. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner, coming up shortly. ellen zentner of morgan stanley. looking forward to the conversation in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i'm ritika gupta. china is striking back at the u.s., beijing announced it will impose sanctions on nancy pelosi and her family for her visit this week to taiwan. meanwhile, china is canceling military and climate talks with the u.s.. chinese forces are still conducting exercises around taiwan. there are signs that conditions in the u.s. labor market are easing. the july jobs report is out today a: 30 a.m. it will show that the u.s. added 250 thousand jobs, while the unemplo

tom will be napping. tom: damien is chiming in. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, china is ramping up support for its troubled real estate sector. there putting this they're offering $29 billion in special loans to buyers which would make it the just message yet from beijing to handle a property crisis. the treasury secretary once the federal reserve to deliver a message on the economy and says the fed should be clear that it will be driving up the inflation rates to quell recession. president biden has spoken with european leaders about a nuclear deal with iran. there considering tehran's position on the latest pozo. the u.s. has said it agrees with israel and iran can never wire a nuclear weapon. global news, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo y

tom: thank you. jonathan: they are looking from a shift lower down to a 50, 20 five, and hopefully a pause. that is the difference between the market and the reserve. the market is looking for cuts next year and the federal reserve is talking about raising hold. lisa: everyone is anticipating a hawkish message from jay powell and they are lining up their bets in anticipation of a hawkish discussion friday. at what point do we then get a either rumor, sell the news activity when he comes out hawkish? jonathan: some of the kids were playing games, then he's going to come back after a long summer and do a speech. they are clearly cleaning things up. you tidy the house, don't you? lisa: is that us? [laughter] jonathan: market participants are like toddlers sometimes. on the nasdaq, up .1%. -- .3%. yields higher by 90 even a basis point in the last 24 hours on a 10 year. lisa, maybe we need to get used to this. euro-dollar breaking through parity. lisa: we did see that breakthrough actually closing below.

one of those numbers, tom? tom: those are the vix numbers. those are how pros look at the numbers, they don't look at the dow, they follow vix. someone like tracy alloway is following the futures even more than the market. jonathan: we will get to it. about point -- .8% on the s&p, the last couple days down by about 5% on the nasdaq. it is here to bounce back. you can turn the last couple of days upside down, the bond market to, .67% on the 10 year. we get cpi a little later. it trades -- fades a little its next week. lisa: yesterday, they came out with an emergency plan to address the energy crisis in the region. how much of that is a linchpin for the euro? how much power does the ecb have? today, what we heard from neel kashkari into the fed president, 8:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m., two they come out and repeat they would like to see more of a tightening in financial conditions? i also want to hear what they have to say about the balance sheet. it is starting to take effect and accelerating this week. at what point do we see that trickle into th

tom: kailey leinz and tom keene. brammo as well. stay with us. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, president biden gets the win he has been waiting for. the house expected to mask -- pass the measure on friday. the question is whether it can give democrats a boost in the congressional election. china same military activity around time one was continuing in the wake of nancy pelosi's visit. the chinese military says it conducted anti-submarine and naval strike test today. the reason maneuvers near taiwan have been the most provocative in a decade. and russia has said it is ready to international -- welcome -- and do a power plant that came under attack next week. ukraine believes around 500 soldiers. and the biggest u.s. meat company is getting it by inflation. prices flew to more than 40 earnings points. and they will do widespread cost-cutting after a record loss. -- marked on the holdings of doordash. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in m

tom p.: we do. we think inflation will slope and you start to see slowing around the turn of the year at the core level. headlight is a different animal. we will see what happens with energy prices. our house call is they will be on the rise. we think they will wind up slowing down before the end of the year. you have to go through one more month of unfavorable comp. we think there is price pressure that we are starting to see the downward price pressure. it is not going to be a notable way but you will start to see things slow even as early as the end of the year, and as we roll into next year, i think it is reasonable to think for inflation could surprise people to the downside. there's a lot of price pressure in the pipeline. is downward price pressure in the pipeline and we think that will hold up. lisa: others say we will look at wages and how much they are increasing, look at some of these secure elements, look at food, look at gas. how do you factor those things in and when you start to think

tom: with me. jonathan: sometimes, tom. looking ahead to cpi, what are you looking for on that particular data point? sarah: we are looking for another strong gain. the headline is going to be weaker because you had that huge pullback in gasoline prices, but that shift from 1.3% to 0.2%, which is what we are looking for, and almost entirely stems from energy. you are going to get help from autos, but you were going to see the core coming in at .5%, .6% rate. it is still hot, and if you look at year-over-year numbers those are looking up. it is going to be difficult for the fed to see that compelling evidence that we are seeing underlying pressure in inflation cool here over the next few months in time for that september fed meeting. jonathan: sarah, awesome as always. sarah house of wells fargo. looking ahead to payrolls this morning, then it is ahead to cpi. i can give you a sneak peek of the numbers now. we are looking for headlines to come down from 9.1% to 8.8%. we are looking for core year-over-year to come up to 6.1%

tom: i haven't. i think a lot of it is trying to do old campaign style in a new modern day with the speed of social media. i am not sure the old stuff works. jonathan: do you have asparagus with salsa? i am curious. you need to catch up with american politics. tom: i am too busy listening to one direction. harry has something new out and i am listening to his new project. he dropped a couple days ago. i know the language. jonathan: we are down .8% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 down .9%. equities softer as we try to squeeze out a week of gains, looking at a day of losses that could take that away. this into michael hartnett. the 17.4% gain we had off the lows, apple, microsoft, amazon, tesla contributed 30%. tom: he is way correct. it has been credibly narrow. jonathan: we are going to talk with steve chiavarone on that story. features lower from nearest city, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: good morning to you. the average, 17.6% rally. we just had 17.4% off of the lows. textbook bear

tom: i agree with you. it will be interesting, november is like tomorrow for president xi when he has that party congress. jonathan: november for this market is about 10 years away. tom: the market pulls back fractionally, recalibrating to the bang up six weeks we have had. jonathan: we are down .2% on the s&p. yields up one basis point to two .65. if you want to look at dollar weakness is out there. euro-dollar positive .1%. dollar-yen with a sizable move, .6%. tom: tony rodriguez joins us right now. there is a 60/40 theory in retirement planning. douglas kass sent me a great chart. the 60/40 model now is the grimmest it has been over 30 years. how do you recover in bonds if the 40 of your 60/40 has been a disaster? tony: good morning. the best news about the 40 is it has done a lot better than the 60. we are beginning to see the fact investors do need to have fixed income in the portfolio to offset periods like we saw on the first half where you get equities down double digits, even 20 plus percent when y

tom: good morning.

tom: it is not bob seeger. we have more response from robert seeger in the 1970's then anything else we have done. lisa: people are saying it is more the 1940's. tom: we will sing a duet. futures advance, up 17. michael mckee is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. a few minutes from now we will get what is called -- economic report in the world. the consumer price index probably rose at an annual rate of 8.7% in july, still above the fed's 2% target. in new york, former president trump says he will be questioned today under oath about his dealings as a real estate mogul. the investigation looks at claims that the organization misstated values of its assets for tax reasons. this comes after investigators searched the former president's home in florida. china has ended those unprecedented military exercises near taiwan but says it plans to conduct regular patrols in the region. they began the drills after house speaker

tom: tom porcelli is from rbc capital markets. an absolutely brilliant study of the wage dynamics in the united states of america. i want to talk to you about what we just heard from david blanchflower, a linkage of these tumultuous times into wage growth is unfounded. give us your update on america's wage growth in this 9% inflation we are facing? tom: i completely agree with his assessment. people who are comparing today to the 70's, 80's are doing us a disservice. i think this has much more in common with the 40's than the 70's. i don't think this is some wage price spiral that the fed can impact. i think that effort will bear very little fruit. i think that that is hiking pretty aggressively into an economy that is slowing down. i don't know how that ends well. if their thought process is we have to tamp down on wage pressures, i don't know how much more you want to tamp down on those. in real terms, they are deeply in negative territory. i think very few people appreciate, disposable personal income, in nominal terms, from th

tom: hannah? >> ooi was joe bin biden, i'd wh my drink around him and she'll never let it go and election conspiracy, she was pushing the narratives it was stolen from her and she'll take any chance she can get. kamala, biden, watch your backs. tom: so true, all the stuff about january 6, jason, hillary clinton and, you know, who's the one from georgia, they don't stop talking about that they were unjustly robbed of their election; right? >> yeah, could you imagine that party of those two dancing, hillary clinton and stacey abram, i am all for that video. she clearly wants to run but i don't think she will. she can't stomach another loss. tom: yeah, well, maybe right. maybe right. panel, stay right there, okay. coming up, a new report claiming inflation could be here for years but the white house still blaming everything but their own nonstop spending. is inflation here to stay? jonas max-ferris is here in studio to break it down, next. that takes triple action against asthma symptoms. trelegy hel

tom first impression? you see him walk in. >> he had long-ish, blond hair, sort of combed back in a double breasted blue razor blazer on. he looked like something off of the captains union. but very pompous. i don't know. he seemed fake to me. >> that night, beth's brother kept asking tom toolan what he did for a living. and he couldn't really tell me. what he did. oh, i'm an investor. and i said, what do you invest in? he couldn't really give me an answer. beth's brother says that he was drinking during dinner but not to excess. >> afterwards, tom toolan and beth headed back to his apartment. beth told friends that something shopping happened. she had seen him drunk or angry, but she never saw her new boyfriend like this. >> he put her into a headlock and was walking down the street saying, i want to beat your head in. she shared with me, i went back to the apartment to get my cell phone in palm pilot, and i wonder if i should've just left us left behind and left at that moment. >> little did beth know th

tom: it really is. ben laidler is going to give us tone against the bears, and as you know, reaffirming. i thought mike wilson's note with morgan stanley was fascinating. he reaffirms in a slowdown, guess what? at some point the earnings you declines. jonathan: the downgrades should come through fast in a recession. that is his point of view at the moment. we are dreaming, aren't we, going into the data? payrolls this week. tom: it will be a data-dependent fed. forward guidance out the window. we will see payrolls. you've got to pay attention. will the labor economy break? jonathan: over the weekend, neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed spoke twice, pushed back against the euphoria that somehow this fed paul's is coming soon -- fed pause is coming soon. lisa: this really is the key pushback, that fed chair jay powell said we are close to neutral, getting close to getting that rate where it needs to be for this economy. looking at the real yield on two-year bonds right now, it is -0.3%. we still have neg

tom: let's check in on the markets. stabilization across the markets , again as investors digest the messaging from jay powell and the fed. there is a sense of calm. an interesting video from the office kashkari -- from neel kashkari and people were happy about the comments from jay powell. we also heard from the ecb officials, philip lane pushing back on the idea that we are going to get 75 basis points in september. the cac currently up 0.3% and the spanish ibex up 0.3%. you are lower on the ftse 100. you see iron ore dropping below $100 on top of concerns about demand for iron ore out of china. we know spanish cpr is coming in as well. -- cpi is coming in as well. i will get the tea when i get back to my terminal and can bring -- i will get you that data when i get back to my terminal and can bring it to you. the euro-dollar back below parity at 99. we will be talking with about that with our next guest. we can talk about oil prices, copper prices, but it is indeed what is happening in iron ore. the linkages to china

tom: great note. jonathan: much better than expected results for corporate earnings and support of any coming economic downturn is likely to be short and shallow. going forward, it also tells us that the rally in stocks is fragile given the possibility of further downward earnings. different people talking about the exact same thing. tom: there are a lot of different opinions out there. what i'm watching here, the people with the very cautious equity view, do they start migrating upward because of the resilience that we have seen in revenue? jonathan: did they get crowded in? this is going to crowd some investors in, and the short-term. lisa: in the short-term. how much does this mean that in the longer-term, people, sector spending or the travel sector or the balance sheet of the households. take a look at the savings rate, it has plummeted. at what point does that start to bleed into retail sales more than we have seen and into the forward projections? jonathan: nord stream 1 is running at reduced c

tom: is it a done deal? does it get signed into law, and what does it mean for the democrats and joe biden? bruce: of course, nothing is ever a done deal in washington until the president signs a bill. but it does look like it will pass. nancy pelosi has scheduled the vote for friday this week in the house, it is expected to pass, the democrats have a narrow majority. then it goes to the president to sign. what does it mean for midterms, hard to say. of course, there has been a lot of expectation that there will be a big red wave of republican victories in the fall in november. the democrats have a bit of wind at their back after this and other victories recently. it has got the potential to maybe make ends more interesting going into in terms -- into interims. tom: coming up, as investors warm up to tech stocks again, we focus on softbank's earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. top stories. a bumper jobs report adds to the case for more tight

tom: fair. going back to 1947, eisenhower disinflation, the two bouts of disinflation we had in the 1950's, once inflation begins to diss inflated, do you think it keeps going or do we stay at a certain point? is there a momentum to a disinflation? joseph: people used to think there was momentum on inflation and then momentum on disinflation. but the forces for that momentum are much weaker today than they were 50 years ago. 50 years ago, unions were strong. when prices went up, they demanded higher wages. higher wages met higher prices. unions are weak. we are back to what you might call normal competitive forces. what we saw in the years before the pandemic, overall, supply was extraordinarily robust, prices were kept down. i think we will be returning to that kind of world. lisa: what is the fed's role in this? there is a belief that this is a different moment. people point not just to oil and commodity prices but this fissure between the u.s. and china and re-shoring up some supplies which i

tom: i agree totally. we are going right into the season, which is perfect for the end of the summer, shaping up for labor day and into the autumn in europe. 51,000 jobs, i would say 2000 is normal. 4% or so is normal. the question in our reporting is how much more than that seems to be substantial to get that cost reduction. jonathon: we talked about how much, let's talk about when. expected to finalize these plans over the next couple months. lisa: how do they also keep talent at a time of cuts. we reported how much they have to pay executives during trios. bonuses are going to come drown -- come down dramatically. jonathon: how long have we talked about the trouble that european banks are finding themselves in? it feels like more than a decade. what's your take on this? >> it has been more than a decade because they never recapitalized properly after 2008 or 2009. there is the global growth fund. we don't own any european banks or domestic banks either. in credit suisse in particular, it is one of the f

tom: welcome back to the open. we are 14 minutes into european trading day. you are seeing gains of 0.4% across the benchmark. things are led by basic resources and construction materials. you are seeing oil and rent above hundred one dollars. china seeing some fiscal support in interest-rate spending. that's get -- and infrastructure spending. let's get more on the moves of regulatory announcements and updates when it comes to a merger between the goal you and suez. the french company must sell three businesses for this deal to be approved at the same rates amid competition consent. alfen boosting at four year energy forecast and it is a strong before bha. and bachem taking a hit, the stock down 3.5 percent. get back to the guests story and what is -- the gas story and what is happening across the markets. the worst energy crisis in decades intensifies. we are now joined by bloomberg's anna who has been watching all of this for us. what is driving the gas prices right now? it is more than russia, isn't it? anna: r

tom: wow. lisa: the fact the price index for the second read of second-quarter gdp was revised upward tells you something. to me, that starts to raise a question about where we end the year. what happens if we in the are at 8% cpi? what does that do for fed policy? jonathan: underlying gdp, the estimate negative 0.6%. mike, since we got you drenched in the pouring rain to look at economic data, any response to it? michael: i think that this point, the issue has been, what is the economy doing because of this question about two consecutive quarters of contraction. we have a later re-think about it. the big issue is going to be going into the third quarter, what do we see. so far, the consensus seems to be we are at about 1.3% gdp growth. that would be a rebound. you have some economists saying we could see another contraction, a guy like ian shepherdson at pantheon who says we could see 5% growth in the third quarter. we will need to see a bit of a change before we get to that. that --jobless cl

tom: does this work for my 401(k)? jonathan: how relieved are you that foreign-exchange is no longer boring? mark: it would be great if the regime did not change every week, but yeah. [laughter] yeah, people care about fx again. jonathan: dear member that time that went on for years that no one really cared about foreign-exchange -- do you remember the time that went on for years that no one really cared about foreign-exchange? tom: no one is dozing off. that was amazing. to translate that, weak yen, 130 to 133, and then a big move of strong yen. i think he said 120-ish. jonathan: 134 on euro-yen right now targeting 125. that is the end of september. that's the call. that's the timeframe and your number. lisa: how much of that is the weakening and the dollar, basically? this move away from the hawkish fed and the hawkish ecb no matter what, allowed japan to move away from some of theirs giving them breathing room. that could trigger this significant rally that people are calling for in the yen. jonathan: shout out to p

a snobby joke from birmingham, tom, which you won't get. tom: lisa, help me here. between pharaoh -- between jonathan and rochester, i can understand a word they are saying. lisa: i didn't understand at all. jonathon: just read sometimes. that's all. can you imagine the fed forecasting this? q4 and going through the whole of next year? lisa: the issue is not the possibility of that happening. it is the issue of them saying it out loud. the fed would never say that out loud. that, i think, is the distinction. jonathon: 50 point basis hike by the bank of englund. yields lower at the long end by seven basis points on 810-year. twos and tens invert for the first time since 2019 still more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. china has begun military drills around taiwan in response to house speaker nancy pelosi's visit there. one of the exercises involved missiles being fired into the sea. taiwan is downplaying the impacts of the drills on shipping and airplane routes. there will be another attempt to same -- to save th

lisa: go ahead, tom. tom: it's a huge deal. interrupt, lisa. the bloomberg financial index is really good math. this morning it sustains ever more accommodating. jonathan: you interrupt every five minutes, nothing original about that. tom: it's original. you can't go to jackson hole and be gloomy. you can go to the death canyon trail like every year, it's pretty hazardous. the trail is no small feat but the pro tip out there is not to pet the wild animals. if animals are going to be out there, look at the little bear. that's what she's going to do, ted the baby -- pet the baby griz. jonathan: are we going to have a family hike? tom: i think we should. [laughter] tom: bear grills on the set. jonathan: there is your promo. the future is down. we should record it, sell pay-per-view, subscription. fight hike index. [laughter] if you are just to -- tuning in, the data out of china is ugly. crude, lower. copper, lower. lisa: i love it, that's the new martial art, trying to take a family hike with a bottle of tang. this will be an interesting week whe

tom: let's build on that. the areas of agreement or disagreement, where are the areas that you expect to see clarification in the u.s. and china policy, that you think would be significant for companies, for investors and frankly, rank and file who are trying to understand what is going to happen? >> that we start with the end. i think there has been a great benefit in the strategic ambiguity policy in the united states, but there's probably some benefit in additional clarity here now, too. and what senator menendez, senator graham and others are trying to do, frankly, is to start a debate about exactly how to update china policy with the idea that more clarity for the united states is a good thing. if there is additional clarity, that is probably good for markets. you have some idea of what the guardrails are, some idea of where it will go and where it won't. and china will understand that and the idea is maybe it will respond in kind and there will be more clarity on both sides. that may end up being a good

bold stuff from tom paine! so, in these ways, folks, common sense is a sort of declaration of independence. by which i mean it's a new kind of argument that denies all precedents by smacking the rulebook about how you make arguments out of opponents hands. and ignoring every previous thing thought were said in favor of continuing on as dependent colonies. and the pages of common sense, tom paine doesn't cite any classical authors, he doesn't quote people who disagree with him, he doesn't mention any constitutional theories about what is possible and what is not possible. paine won't stand for any of that. we have it in our power, he writes, to begin the world again. as i think you can start to see, as i hope you can start to see, much of paine's persuasive power rests not exactly and what he says but in the way he says it. for instance, paine worked hard to convince readers that the colonists are caught up in an epic struggle. not a small, silly domestic dispute about taxes and tee that will soon blow over. no.

tom: that is the point. i noticed that the pullback on a cyclical, sequential sequence over 20, 30, 40 years, it was terrible. is that thinking of the economist that this is going to be terrible like 2007, 2 thousand 8, 2009, or is this just a normal pullback? >> you look to those first for reaction when the fed starts raising interest rates, -- or even cutting interest rates, and that is what is happening. we are seeing housing starts in home sales, but the question of whether you go too far or not is kind of hard to say because we don't know what the overall demand is. graphics play a big role in that. we have to keep on where we are. we are still building houses, still completing houses, so we are not going to see too much of a decline in the side industries like home depot. still strong because people are still buying. less traffic as the construction numbers start to fade. people are still going to fill those homes that have been constructed. lisa: this is by design, isn't it? the fed is ok with what th

tom: it will be fascinating to see. john, as we speak of washington, can i note that the real yield will down from where it was on july 29 and we will possibly head for a negative statistic? jonathan: your disagreement earlier with lisa about what is driving the equity market -- we all have to agree that really yields -- that story and how it has faded has been a big factor in what has happened in this valley. a lot of it is the pendant on where they have shifted. tom: part of inflation coming down is demand structure. when prices come up, demand slips away. jonathan: from what? tom: this goes to the important point. it is no news monday, i get that. but what about the cpi report? jonathan: we will see if we will keep this go, go, go with the fed. lisa: it could spread the markets in the opposite direction. honestly, john says that you do not disagree, but i say that you do. 100%. millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. an

tom: the analysts like that. currently about seven -- 4%, do you see that, is that the new normal or do we return at some point in the next 12 to 20 performance to declining prices for turbine? henrik: i think that depends on several things. right now, if i speak with customers directly, i think it is part of solving an energy crisis that is here, and it is real in europe. you have to start arguing how do we increase the capacity that comes from renewable. the only way to bring electricity price down for energy price down is putting more capacity. so there will be a mix of that pricing, if the current market position prevails on components and raw materials, pricing will stay high. we are exceptionally disciplined. the only way to get business is to remain disciplined to price. francine: will stay high or are you further increase your average selling price? henrik: i will always sell the turbine at the highest possible price. if there's an opportunity to get more for, i think it is a fabulous assets of it will la

brown. -- tom groan. it is the historical analog. people will say it is akin to the 1940's, others point further back in history. where do you look for guidance as to how this is going to transpire and what tools will be necessary to get us back to where it is more comfortable? lindsey: i think there is comparable aspect of the 70's, particularly when we talk about supply-side shock to inflation. we are in an unprecedented market with the aftermath of a global pandemic, ongoing geopolitical conflict. there is no realistic comparison to what is in the past. i think economists, fed officials and marketed participants are struggling to understand all of these factors, this confluence of factors driving the market to act irrational at this point. we have seen market participants are ping-ponging on one data point. using the 10 year shift and rally back to 3% based on one -- there is no historical precedent compares and we can look to do understand what's happening in the marketplace. tom: let's channel island

tom: what about businesses? as i watering as the price cap is for households, for businesses, there is. -- there is no cap. dan: we will see the costs take a significant portion and rise considerably. some of them might pass that on, but that drives higher inflation and other commodities that are energy intensive to produce. the other thing is that if households do not have any money to spend, they will go into further debt to fund basic essentials, and that will be a significant drain on consumption the economy and all other sectors in the economy. unless there is action to smooth that out. tom: let me bundle two questions into one. do you expect to see more closures across the industry as a result, and what is your view of when prices return to stability? dan: is a big question. across the economy, the prices somewhat didn't fall. i am not sure we will see the same number of suppliers as we saw last time because that data was related to a lack of hedging. . to the first round of prices. i think we will see the

bold stuff from tom paine! or take another major argument from common sense. with fighting already underway at lexington and concord and bunker hill, paine tells the readers of common sense that they should not make peace with england. reconciliation, now, he says, is a dangerous doctrine. really? in the opening months of 1776, did any sane person really think that a tiny colonial militia could ever beat and vanish the most powerful navy that the world had ever seen and a significant army? it is madness to think that. so, why not make peace? safe in the knowledge that all of the colonists grievances against england would eventually evaporate as time passed i. why not make peace, safe in the knowledge that the columnists debts would eventually get paid? that this hated king would soon surely die and his unpopular cabinet would eventually be forced from power? why not make peace, patch things up, wait it out? because paine won't let you see the problem like that. paine, in common sense, puts the burden of proof e

tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jonathan ferro, it is not just stocks, it is bonds, currencies, oil, they move. jonathan: the dollar is the strongest going on the way back to 2002. the two year yield the highest since 2007. we i taking out the 2014 highs. two basis points away from having a little look at 350. tom: what is interesting is the calendar, we have got to get out. out is not to next jerome powell press conference, it is to september 8, because europe matters to america. jonathan: the ecb, they have one priority, to get inflation down and they are willing to tolerate is low down in the economy. how much are they willing to tolerate that? i think they wanted to communicate their hurdle, the pause, it is a lot higher than you think it is. tom: 1939, 1912, whatever. how do you raise rates into a war? jonathan: how do you raise rates into a recession? tom: lisa, what did you read about this weekend that matters to you after jackson hole? lisa: the discrepancy is people who believe the economy can withstand a 4

tom: alice, thank you. two big wall street banks remove some of their last covid 19 protocols, paving the way to the return to the office five days a week. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. 23 minutes into the regular pay and training day. gains of .30% across the benchmark. nasdaq futures up 5.6%. -- by .6%. goldman sachs is lifting five covid rules including vaccination requirements. it is ordering staff back to the office. morgan stanley is also easing some covid mitigation efforts. i am joined by benedikt in berlin. what are the rules goldman and morgan stanley are easing? >> this is around the idea of access to offices. morgan stanley has said testing requirements will no longer be enforced. goldman sachs is saying that vaccination status is no longer key necessity for getting access to the office when you are coming to new york from outside. it makes it easier for people to come to offices. that is part of the push by the office-based economy to get people back more than just one o

tom: good morning, jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz. it is a bull market, a bear market rally, it is unloved. lisa: unloved to the biggest degree potentially in history, as far as the bearish views and what we have seen in the market. not cooperating with that, at seven shift in the market tone on the heels of that headline about a pipeline from russia to europe getting suspended in terms of the oil imports. how much does that change the landscape after we have written on this decline in gas and oil prices for the past couple of weeks? tom: brent crude up 97.80, we will have to monitor that. we are looking at their inflation report. let's summarize. there is the topline number and the core number and i hear pros talking about the core number. kailey: on the headlights, gas and food are more volatile and they should be coming down, but it becomes about the stickier components. that will decide how quickly the federal reserve is going to be able to take its foot off the gas pedal. i pity talking about the potentially 100 basis point hike

tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. i appoint this reallocation friday. everybody has a rewrite for the weekend. cpi, wow. jobs report, wow. everybody has to adjust. lisa: we will pull the lever on triple leveraged all-cash for reallocating it to bitcoin or big tech? tom: fractional shares of apple maybe. lisa: when you see the bottom? how far out do you look? a month? the rally could continue in the next three weeks, or prepare for the yield curve inversion signal? still signaling a slowdown that some people say has not been priced in. we did this with ron temple in the last hour. david leibowitz in a few moments. looking forward to this raging debate about what to do here. what to do here is always a fixed income market leads the way. the fixed income market leading equities now? lisa: right now it would send the same signal if you look at credit that equities are signaling. if we get any downturn, it will be shallow. resilient companies will remain resilient and can pay their bills. that is why you are getting the bi

tom? tom: alice atkins in london, thank you. coming up, the bank of korea governor keeps the door open for another outsized interest rate hike. hear what he had to say to bloomberg at jackson hole next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we are not exactly targeting the exchange rate itself or the interest rate cap in itself is not our prime policy objective. but definitely the higher interest rate in the united states will have a depreciation pressure to korea, and that depreciation will increase our inflation rate. so i think two large differences in interest rate differentials would be ideal, but we have to allow the exchange rate to move and we have to focus on our own inflation rate through the impact of exchange rate appreciation. >> you have said the bank of korea rate will reach 3% by the end of the year. you said that is reasonable. how does that look to you now? equally reasonable, or maybe higher? >> as i mentioned, i think it is in line with our expectations. i don't think we need to revise our projection at this moment. >> i

tom: i would say not. there is a lot of reading to be had about what is different, but what it does come down to is the ability to make a mistake. when i talked to military experts, something like bloomberg in that regard. jonathan: we make a ton of mistakes on a daily basis. a visit we all anticipate in the next couple of hours. lisa: and everyone is trying to figure out what the response could potentially be. this is risk off, a pretty significant market ramification that leaves you with a 10 year yield going into that to 5% and projecting further. how much are people perhaps looking past some of the longer-term implications of the share between china and the u.s.? a lot of people are looking at how the fed response to that. jonathan: we got the headline risk hovering over this market. you've also got the data which, let's face it, that is what we've been training on over the last week. lisa: this new potential risk, usually risk off or this idea that there could be some geopolitical tension would lead t

and tom's mother sandra. it was a catch 22. so time to get creative. >> it had been my experience when i had work in the narcotics section of the sheriff's department that often people throw away valuable evidence. >> doug asked his fellow detectives to help him because he decided to search schrauben's garbage. so >> what did they tell you when you came up with that idea? crazy? >> i think they really thought that i was starting to lose it that i wanted to dig through someone's trash. >> so faithfully once a week on pickup de d'agata a daybreak in an hour-long journey in schrauben's neighborhood. where a trash truck -- >> we would have the dump truck trash in somewhat of a pile here regardless of the size. >> right on the turmeric? >> right on the tarmac. scattered everything out opened every bag. get down on our hands and knees and slowly shift through every piece of paper that looked like it might be a document of some kind. >> and that's how doug's team found this coffee stain phone bill. showing call afte

[laughter] tom: what a headline. barry norris, of argonaut capital partners, coming up the counting the cost of war. as ukrainians celebrate their independence days of the total of russia's invasion shows no sign of evening peak -- using. the economic and political thought, that is next. -- fallout, that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done. francine: welcome back to the open. 43 minutes into the european trading day, u.s. futures down, declining as investors -- there are mounting signs of the global economy slowing, we look at jackson hole, jay powell speech on friday. another $3 million in arms to pain as the

tom: futures -32. to make sense of this stunning report, jeffrey rosenberg joins us, portfolio manager at blackrock. how do you do multi-strategy with such a shock? jeffrey: it is a bit of a surprise. you have hit it on the head with good news being bad news. it is surprisingly strong, a reminder of how strong the economy is. we were expecting an eventual slow down but it is not here yet. talking about this ahead of time, what does the market do on a big upside surprise? there have going in from the fomc was the powell pivot, and this is the payroll pushback. they will not be able to pivot as aggressively as the market was expecting post that fomc. yield curve flattening, big increase on the front end in rates. equities do not like that because they like the end of fed tightening. inflation does not come down, we are nowhere near neutral. you have a lot more fed hikes if you don't have that inflation coming down. tom: i have a bunch of dweeby bond questions for you, but it is important for a large popu

him, i'm tom from locals. back by popular demand, my reading glasses, good night from new york everybody. >> hello friends welcome to mansion global. if you like to live with you play, play where you live. this is the place for you, we have the best homes on the prettiest holes. the golf episode. ♪ ♪

tom: one final question. if we get a sustained 90 day average, 280,000 nonfarm payrolls, what does that do to the call? andrew: i think it really leaves our call intact? . who beyond that next year. with that kind of a number we would be telling you the job market is still creating jobs at a pace that is pushing the unemployment rate lower. you know the unemployment late -- unemployment rate is at a level generating excess wage pressure. we hear from chair powell even more clearly from that president bostic, even as the job market slows this is a fed that is going to leave rates higher and they are looking for that slowdown in the job market, because that is where it -- where there is a supply-demand imbalance. that is where the economy has to go to bring inflation down. jonathan: andrew hollenhorst with some big calls. thanks for being with us today. got enough time to do thoughts around here. for that i want to say thanks to everyone behind the camera. this beautiful view did not happen on its own. there is

>> greg: tom, you're svelte. can i say that without being charged with sexual harassment. >> tom: i think you can say that, greg, and i don't mind when you do say it. [laughter]. >> tom: but, yeah, this thing was very confusing. the problem with this is the same problem with the food pyramid. they try to reduce everything to this set of metrics, and the pancakes got good marks because they were like whole grain. so they gave them points, and then they ignored the fact this they're all sugary and bad for you. i think this is dumb and i think every study is dumb. i don't believe anything anymore. i'm definitely not into science. it's over for me. >> greg: you're done with science. >> tom: yeah. they're always wrong greg. >> greg: i'm going to disagree with you on science in general. but nutritional science is corrupt. andy, when they do these studies, they have these people involved, on the board, like when they do these studies who are directly linked to like kellogg and dannon. they're never going to say their st

tom? >> all right kelly o'donnell leading us off tonight. kelly, thank you with that new reporting, i want to bring in justice correspondent ken dilanian we can't lose the magnitude of this moment walk us through this move by the justice department >> this appears to be a first, tom legal experts are unaware of any other time in history when a former president's house was searched by law enforcement agents to get the warrant, the fbi had to convince a federal judge there was evidence of a crime inside trump's florida residence. but even before that, justice department officials had to mak the decision that such a controversial move was the best way to obtain what they were looking for. the doj is not commenting it is all but certain this search would have been approved by the attorney general himself who decided that simply asking for the documents, or demanding them with a subpoena, wasn't going to work. tom? >> and ken, because the home of a former president was searched, the big questio