and more people have been talking about that here is stephanie pomboy, on this program, in the past several months. >> i do think that we will seal a profit recession in large part because of of demand destruction on the part of consumers already making it harder for companies to passs price increases they are endetouring plenty of anecdotal sneezed said that back in april but many times before that, what does a profit recession feel like on a practical level? >> well, i am going to answer this way, i have long felt that we use the word "recession" too simplistly there are degrees of recession, i like the idea of a sort of hurricane grading of recessions cat 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 cat one recession mild short-lived i think actually, would be accepted by the federal reserve as a way of getting inflation under control but we won't to avoid is a really deep series recession i think at the moment it doesn't look very likely we are going to see something that severe. >> all right. we want to continue this conversation, we will get numbers about 10 minutes dennis thank you very much dennis loc

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stephanie pomboy emailed me exactly what i was talking about earlier the difference between the employer survey the payroll number, and unemployment rate in household survey so in the household survey there was a loss of 138,000 jobs there. the labor participation rate falling. this is important, because the gap between these two surveys as i said earlier, this year, has been unprecedented. that the difference between the when fed started tightening there have been about 1.7 fewer, 1.7 million fewer jobs than payroll survey. historically, thank you household survey leads economic inflexion points while we look at job number payroll number 263,000 jobs added, well there were 138,000 jobs lost in household survey captures small businesses independent operators. maria: great point, chris jump in with reaction. chris: i'm watching the 10-year pressures move extraordinary. maria: what a move. chris: past couple hours. maria: totally reversal. >> what you are seeing in markets why markets down because getting reversal in this i don't know about everybody else on the panel listening to jay powe

. >> how do you prepare for what is coming at us stephanie pomboy on this program years ago said that she is expecting an earnings recession, that is what now most people are saying, she said it really first, what does that mean in terms of our investments how do you prepare for an economy that is likely about to weaken into 2023? >> well, maria, look, we have already seen some larger u.s. companies restrictiving arriving revisaing going to see continuation in first quarter market is normalizing not the worst thing but what we have to expect, is that there is going to be another letdown with could be quite significant so what this means for investors is that this might not be the best time to invest, in broad market indices but good news that this is ab fantastic time to add some individual stocks to portfolios other thing is that sectors that led the way in previous bull market, technology sector, might not be leader of the next bull market so we should focus on quality, and sectors like healthcare, like industrials, real estate, energy, financials, ric the sectors that provide highe

stephanie pomboy has been looking for a profits recession on this program for two years, yet estimates have not come down significantly. >> absolutely true and we're on the same page as that. we think it's just been something that they've kicked the can on. they've been able to sort of gloss over the numbers a little bit but now things are going to start hitting the bottom line. there's a leading indicator or sort of your inventory's that you've got in place but with supply i chains being an issue with costs going up it's going to have to come around. maria: john, real quick, final word. >> looking ahead, we're not likely to go back toes those very high valuations of 2021 ay time soon, it's highly unlikely that fed funds is going to approach zero percent of the 10 year treasury yields going under 2%. we'll get a recovery with equities eventually late next year, maybe 2024. we're not going to have a repeat of what happened in 2021 any time soon. maria: we will leave it there. great to have you both. kathy, thanks for being here. john, thank you for sticking around. merry christmas, happ

stephanie pomboy is a regular guest and she's talking about all of this debt that's going to roll over for corporations in 2023. she's calling them zombie companies. what does that mean for the stock market, larry? >> we've had a long -- carl icahn, and now interest rates go up dramatically and they stay higher for a period of time, then it just typically hits corporate earnings dramatically and so the street is still looking for $225 next year and that probably comes down to 210, 205 in terms of the earnings on the s&p 500. so that means, that's why the beast in the market is telling us something. as the fed has been more hawkish the market keeps drifting lower and lower because the market knows that earnings inside the s&p are getting hammered by interest costs and inflation. maria: that's right. look, many people say when you look at earnings growth in 2023 there's none except for the energy space, the oil companies are looking at growth but you can't really find growth expectations for a lot of other sectors. >> yeah, that's why you want to start looking globally, merging market, b

maria: this is what stephanie pomboy is worried about, zombie companies in 2023 and how the debt is going to roll over and be a disruption for markets. >> the government has -- many governments have given people a lot of insun testifies to -- incentives to more toward electric vehicles. in a pure market, how much of the market do they end up capturing? we'll see. the head of toyota take is less p enthusiastic about ev futures than others. twitter, i think he's already done a public service in laying out what was happening there. the government interference, he youlook at the fbi, seems to hae interfered in the last two presidential elections, not act acceptable. that needs to be the focus on congressional inquiries this coming year p. going forward, -- maria: let's hope it is and we're not waiting like we were waiting to for the russia collusion story and subpoenas to come which they never did. >> that's right. if he puts in place a ceo who is committed to that open platform where a robust public debate can happen and the government and the clique at the top of the company are not putting

in two months, that is a 1 million differential and this is according to stephanie pomboy. but historically that differential, you watch the household survey for pivots, inflection points in the economy, it's the household survey that tells you where the economy is going because that captures small businesses and independent operators, not the overall, you know, the payroll survey is a large businesses which have just he begun to cut jobs on the periphery. facebook it might be 11,000 jobs but that was excess employment that it had, people who really weren't doing anything. but it is important. >> that's right. maria: great to see you this morning. thanks so much. ross mayfield joining us. quick break and then president biden says there's more important things to do than touring the southern border. we discuss his shocking comments in the face of 5 million illegals crossing on his watch. stay with us. he always went for bad debt. we had a lot of expenses. the intro offers were hard to pass up. then the interest payments started. the debt just kept getting worse. mmmm so we b