what do you think jay powell say? will he chide investors again for making it harder for the fed to get the job done? will he lean more into the soft dish more dovish position that people are getting to count on or is it going to come back tough? that it's going to stay wherever it is for a long time because the job isn't done when it comes to fighting inflation? guest: i think he will acknowledge the improvement in numbers. the hawkish part is going to be the emphasis that there is still great deal of uncertainty and a long way to go to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. that said, the means by which they will try to engineer that is less about ratcheting rate hikes more aggressively in the near term and more an emphasis on holding rates at higher levels whether they get to what they have in their projections or if they stop one rate hike short of that which is what it sounds like right now. the real issue i think diversions between the fed and markets, i think the fed is coming toward the markets on the ver

remember that jay powell came out of 2018? nicer, kinder, friendlier jay powell? that seems like that will not happen. the recession debate rages on with the fed almost guaranteeing a sign of mission accomplished to get to a recession even as recent data is giving a lot of folks hopes of a so-called soft landing. morgan stanley says that, if there is recession the s&p 500 could go to 3,000. that is a huge drop from where we are right now. we wait for official verdict on all of this, recession, earnings, are actually going to come upon us really quickly. they start this week. it has been a good omen that earnings surprises is not a good omen if you take a look. earnings surprises they have been coming down a lot since 2021. i want to bring in ria advisor cio lance roberts. lance, the piece you published today the lag effect of fiscal pig and economic python. it sounds, a term that you used before. essentially you're saying that the lag effect, right? the fed, these aggressive rate hikes they don't instantaneously impact the economy. they all sort of build up. they

will jay powell continue to back down the doves? the other big driver continues to be the china reopening story. how much of it is priced in? this morning, we are seeing gains in prices of iron ore. on cctv, the beijing acting mayor has said that the capitol has passed the peak infection rates. oil is down by 0.3%. equities are slightly slower but that might just be from that central bank speak. coming up next is "markets: europe". this is bloomberg. ♪ (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo

how can jay powell fight something like that? on the other hand, the public when they start to know about this they will be outraged about these prices? >> fair enough. don't forget that the public doesn't pay these prices. their insurance companies do, medicare does. so it turns out that prescription drugs are very big part of cpi and they're not inflating very fast. in fact over the last year, prescription drug prices are inflating below the fed target of 2%. so yeah, it's outrageous. if you have hemophilia b, you want someone pay any price to extend your life a little while maybe not so outrageous. don't worry about it, has nothing to do with inflation. charles: 30 seconds, you said be school, stay the course don't fret. we're fretting. give us words of kiss dom. >> i don't know a word of wisdom but just a facts. in less than three months the stock market is up 10%? okay. can we stop fretting? smell the roses, man. charles: okay. happy new year, don. always a pleasure. >> you too, buddy. charles: always appreciate it. all righ

it's like nothing from jay powell is good for markets. abigail: right now we have the s&p 500 up slightly. let's see how the day goes. the nasdaq doing a little bit better. up about it quarter of a percent. perhaps around jay powell a little bit although i'm not sure how much talk of monetary policies coming out of the meeting in sweden. there is an auction of three year yields so a possible move lower for price. crude oil is basically flat. relative to the year we are looking at a pretty good start. the s&p 500 up over this time, when you have stocks higher in the beginning of the year it can -- we have to get the earnings season. a slew of data so we will see how that goes. we will see that the dollar is one big piece of the story in terms of stocks -- why stocks this year have been doing relatively well. a peak last october. breaking to the downside. speaking of ricks -- risk assets, we have at this point apple trading lower by eight tens of 1%. yesterday made the announcement, they plan on taking -- making chips that are supplied by b

he has the latest comments from jay powell >> fed chair jay powell in a speech largely focused on central banking independence and less so on the economy and monetary policies. he'll say it provides the public with immeasurable pechbts. he says restoring price stability can require unpopular policies in the short term and the fed must earn its independence and do so by deliveri

do we truly want to figure out what jay powell is likely to do from scratch every single session? that feels more like investing it's why i started the show tonight how to handle earnings, not how to handle today's last half hour of trading everyone has an opinion but this chatter is a foolish guessing game you're much better off searching for quality stocks that work regardless of what the fed does. if you play this parlor game, you're liable to be captured by fear and miss the main chance. we know the fed said it depending on the data but want to err on the side of stamping inflation. that's what the staff says each time the market reacts because somehow regard as new information, frankly, that is just silly the real information comes from the economy itself jay powell is not going to stop or even pause the rate hikes until he sees disinflation that's what he's told us take the man at his word for heaven sake. commentators act like every piece of information is a game changer. last friday, we got three different software macro numbers lower than expected wages, slower factory or

and jay powell not talking about inflation yesterday. tom: and j.p. morgan suggesting of inflation is softer, it could push this bear market rally higher. we continue to assess the implications, jeffrey gundlach saying you need to look at the bond market rather than listen to the fed when it comes to the trajectory for rate hikes. but maybe investors are getting too complacent about inflation once again. markets expecting inflation comes down to 2.5 percent next year. markets opening up .1% in the u.k., in france, the cac 40 getting 11 points as we brace for the potential of industrial action next week. and the spanish ibex range bound. cross assets, you had a decent rally in u.s. equities yesterday on expectations that maybe the cpi print thursday is going to come in software. expectations for around 6.5% after plus 7% for the month of november, futures pointing lower .1%. a little profit-taking, it is the inflation print that is the key data point. euro-dollar 1.07, strength for the single currency. the bloomberg dollar index is hovering dear a seve

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jay powell is in the camp as well too. things are moving in the right direction but we cannot think about pivoting. yes, they're going to pause because they have already preannounced that they're going to raise rates another 75 basis points to get it to 5%. then they are going to hold f they raise rates tomorrow they will within half a percent of that target so that shouldn't be a shock but if wall street is hoping for cheaper money, i don't think we're there just yet. charles: right. i think though not necessarily cheaper money. as i was saying maybe the cuts come late this year but i just think maybe calling off the war. putting a pause, you start with four 75 basis point hikes, a 50 basis-point hike. this has been fairly aggressive by historical standards. i think a lot of folks on the street would be happy if the fed takes a look, step back, we want to see our handiwork, instead of committed to pounding this with a mallet no matter what the data says? >> i think they have already announced that they have already announ

perhaps at a later stage that message may be one christine legarde and jay powell may be sharing this week. >>> interest rates are the point to look toward to u.s. futures later today. of course, down is what we are looking at rightnow and a bit of an advantage to give back is what we will have with the u.s. open picture that's what we look like for today. i'm arabile gumede thank you for joining us on "street signs. orwi ehae"s nt."wlddexcng iupex >>> it is 5:00 a.m. in the new york here is the top "five@5. tech stocks take a tumble. apple and amazon and snap and meta and more report >>> it could be a key day for stocks cramer says so we are about to kickoff a bullish trifecta >>> jay powell is kicking off the first policy moeeting of th year everyone wants to kn

jay powell the expectation is they can afford to start slowing down the pace of the rate hikes and going ahead with the 25 basis point hike at the next meeting on the back of the non-farm payroll is the wage growth is decelerating that should be reassuring for the fed. if that is the case, they can afford to go for that 25 basis point hike. >> i wonder if they signal that show they have done away with forward guidance you have the impact of signaling they may be willing to slow down the impact on the markets time and time again which led to the market rally and dialing down the expectations that is one of the drivers of what they fight against with asset prices rise and what it means for the prices in the wider economy. >> one thing i've beeni thinkin about with the davos forum with the monetary policy and larry summers will be there. i was thinking to what extent are central banks in control of where inflation ends up? it is easy for them to put out the forecast, but the stimulus for inflation did come from factors. to what extent are they in control with the price of wheat from ukraine

that's a metric that jay powell has emphasized. i think this will cause the fed to freeze or go even harder. jonathan: we were talking about the immaculate disinflation, can we get wage growth to come in. do you think we can? >> i think it's tricky. the variable lags of fed policy is still working its way through the system and we just don't know we have accelerated the jobs picture and have had mixed signals in the job market which is still relatively healthy. i think the fed wants some slack back in and they are projecting a higher unemployment rate but it's going in the opposite direction. they will have to fight for it. jonathan: i want to share this with you -- financial conditions are now easing and have been for a couple of months porting economic growth. i think the life is short and predictable. what do you think of this short-term call? >> a lot of this comes down to not just liquidity to nymex and the tightness of fed policy relative to market conditions and a lot of it is global. it's what's going on with qt and changin

we expect to be here in from fed chair jay powell. -- hearing from fed chair jay powell. >> the annual asian financial forum starts today in hong kong. let's crossover to the event where yvonne man is standing by. >> the 16th asian financial forum here in hong kong. this is days after hong kong's parcel reopening with the mainland. hong kong welcomes the world back here. i am pleased to kick off our coverage here with the philippine secretary of finance, benjamin diokno. >> thank you for having me. nice to be back. >> have to ask you about the macro picture that we are seeing across the world. the fed seems to be downshifting. >> i think that is a positive boost for us. we have adjusted also, but not to the extent the fed has. it is good news for us. >> do you think has the space to transition to lower 25 basis point hikes? >> i think so. i think the governor said a possible 25 basis point. >> even with inflation at 8%? >> yes. we are confident inflation will be 2.5 this year. we know we hit by .8 last year. we are confident that by 2024, it will hit right in the middle of the 2% until

jay powell, whether the ecb where i feel like they're going by the seat of their pants. boss tick makes comments this week we'll go north of 5% stay there even if evidence we've gone too far because we can clip a switch. >> these people are cocksure of themselves 15 minutes ago when they said the funds rate will be 0 until 2024 and 25. so the certitude tells you they don't know what they're doing. there was a professor at mit called professor lorenz. in the day he posited the idea long-range weather forecasting is impossible because of accumulation of errors start with misravedding of the data. so errors compound, a accumulate like pinocchio's nose. for that reason your phone app gives you 14 day, or 10-day forecast, that's it. despite improvements in modeling an computer technology, that's it. now that is the humility of a scientist, of a physical scientist. these social scientists talk about the year 2025 having just exhibited their massive ignorance about like today. charles: right. >> so, i think we should go figure. >> only problem though is that when they do open t

powell said because all of these fan fantasies jail going to raise rates then cutting rates i think misguided your thoughts on federal reserve moves in 2023. they are not going to turn offer the second half of the year said it, it already the mistake volcker made cutting too soon. cheryl: i think a pie-in-the-sky wish for watchers want to see cheap money back good for market but i think you are correct jay powell isn't jumping on that banned wagon collateral damage for next fed meetings february 1 next week march 22, may if he is done, on may 3, maria, now going into summer for markets traditionally unevent full time for markets, if that is the case this market may not start to really feel the effects of a positive way of the pause on rate hikes until september. after 20 years covering markets business news i just i think i have a feeling that we're not going to see markets turn around until fall i don't think paul is going to start to cut rates in the fall i don't see that prapg i agree -- >> i am not worried about the market having a quiet performance i am worried about a major se

jay powell made that very clear. all the other six or seven voices we heard early in the week, rates had to be better than 5%ed had to hold them longer than maybe the market expected, that is what i think they tell you what is going to happen. my fear is, if they pivot too soon, pause too soon, not pivot but pause, see as summer comes, inflation start to tick up again, that i think is the fear. that is what happened back in the 80s. it caused complete disaster. you and i both know that. he tries to prevent that from happening. he makes sure that doesn't happen until he really knocks it down. 3% out of inflation was the fluff. i think the next 4%, that is the meat and potatoes, right? that is where it will get tough to kill inflation. i think he will remain aggressive. charles: how do you hopscotch around all of this? they go three times, 25 basis points. they stop. they reignite and go again. do you just stick with the ideas? we started this segment with, keep buying them, keep buying looking at long-term horizon? je

>> okay, i am now on "i love jay powell" watch. i'm looking for downgrades that indicate that there is pricing pressure in an industry, because that's what powell wants to see. this morning, i think we got good news on inflation when jpmorgan cut carmax from hold to sell we know used cars are a huge part of some of these indexes. cpi, oh, early on. and i just think that what's happened is that where you've seen a real plummeting of used cars, we've seen it from carvana. >> we've talked about carvana many times >> so, at a salescertain point,u have to say to yourself, the fed may be winning the people who say the fed is losing are obviously talking about wages, but we had good news on friday about wages, and cpi, we have to wonder whether they even care they care about wages, and i think that when you're starting to see layoffs, you're starting to see sells, what that means is there are layoffs. >> right >> and layoffs lower the price of labor >> now, one might be tempted to look at a chart like this, to be fair to -- what was the d

and rick is also right that fed chair powell, jay powell mentioned this number specifically as something he's watching, as a potential source of inflation i don't think he believes it's coming there right now, although there is some push-up from higher wages into prices, especially in the service sector and he's going to say, look, it's going in the right direction. and it really boils down to this debate, becky, about how much is enough market looks at three months of declining year over year inflation when it comes to either on a 12-month basis or a 3-month annualized basis and then i talked to waller last friday, and he says, yeah, great, talk to me in march and see this continues the fed will put out this fire very, very -- very assured that the fire is out and that the market is ready to move on and say inflation is already under control. >> steve, just in terms of the fed's perspective on this, do you think they're breathing a sigh of relief at all or no? >> yeah, i mean, i think they're breathing a sigh of relief, but i don't think that they're sort of letting down their guard. it

futures drop after fed officials -- jay powell speaks today. let the chips fall. apple considers dropping a key broadcom part from its device in favor of its own homegrown semi conductors. plus, buyout targets. qatar is said to be looking at manchester united, liverpool, or tottenham hotspur for a possible deal after hosting the most expensive world cup ever. let's look at the markets. tom: we would love to talk about football, we will get into that story. qatar is eyeing up some of those teams. across the markets though, you are seeing a bit of profit-taking ahead of the cpi print thursday in terms of what that will give us in terms of a direction. currently down on the benchmark. we did have the speakers coming out. 5% or higher potentially could be held to 2024. raphael bostic saying a long time. a bit of a pause in terms of the reopening trade in china. mark cudmore thinks that will be a very brief pause. he very much thinks there will be a lot of them as some and bullish sentiment. in the u.k. -- let's see how things are playing out. energy leading the gainer

because a market that's rallying too far too fast will upset jay powell. we saw that on the eve of the jackson hole speech. the market had a little bit of a run-up into maybe a benign powell. he was anything, but. he came at it really hard and said there be a whole lot of pain. meanwhile, we do see where households are sort of moving to a more cautious posture, so the american public is sort of hunkering down for things to get slower. the fed has got to see this , right? they got to see the numbers. what's going to win out? the data the fed promised they would use as a guide, or the notion that jay powell has promised to be volcker 2.0? >> you know, in truth at this point, i don't know. i mean, since that speech you eluded to, the inflation numbers have gotten a lot better and i've got to say it's mysterious the way the growth numbers are holding up with quite frankly, a lot of very good recession indicators triggering like beginning in the third quarter last year. clearly, this is a different cycle and i think some of it has to do just with that really su

. >> we have jay powell due to speak tomorrow in sweden and data later this week the u.s. cpi what are you watching and what advice would you give investors? what data points are important from here? >> it feels like after a year focusing on inflation or pivoting back toward jobs. if you think about the fed minutes, they highlighted services inflation that is a function of the job market and how much we are seeing in terms of wage growth that is what i would watch going forward. >> you know, you were talking about the sticky core inflation of the u.s we have not seen that situation in europe as well. lower than expectations. core is continuing to creep higher obviously the ecb has turned hawkish in the last month. is that the reason the euro is doing well because people are pricing in a hawkish outlook from the ecb >> i think that is helping you have the equity performance with the u.s. and euro which helps. the fact that the winter has been milder than anticipated from the energy perspective, things are positive. a number of things coming together in the euro favor i thin

mild symptoms for jay powell, nasdaq composite is up one hundred points. looking at the movers. and education company is down 12%. lauren: it is a competitor. it is amazing. once chat started, the numbers went down. this semester, they are seeing a decline in students and they can take them in and asked the artificial intelligence. we when it is so easy. everyone has a phone. lauren: oral tests are the way of the future. i will give your test in person, you will talk to me so you can't cheat. stuart: it is down 12%. oakley, the oat milk people. lauren: they are going to six. they turned bullish on the stock, plant-based beverages, it is resilient and the new manufacturing deal that opened up. stuart: jb hunt, a trucking company, what is the story? they are up. two in a big way. earnings are unimpressive. lauren: i don't know why there up. they are spending $9 million in appreciation to keep their drivers and other workers. stuart: at the top of the hour we talk about homebuilder confidence. it rose a little, unexpectedly. just one third say conditions are good. jerry howard is c

the u.s. 10-year yield 3.5161 as we figure out what jay powell will say. breaking news on the norwegian sovereign wealth fund, annual performance is just coming out, this is an extremely interesting story. because the sovereign wealth fund has really been trying to stay away from some of the oil-rich investments they had in the past, so the fund lost 14.1% in 2022, under a lot of pressure finding the right bonds they want to be involved in. our lisa abramowicz spoke to the chief executive of that wealth fund. let's get to our mliv managing editor mark cudmore, good morning, welcome to london, you are looking at nasdaq? mark: i've arrived here. it's such an exciting week. everyone is asking what the fed, the ecb, the bank of england, which narrative is most exciting? my head is full of fondue, i am avoiding tough questions, the price action is not good. hang seng contracting, crypto giving back gains, and the nasdaq yesterday for the 100 it was the worst day in more than five weeks. in fact, it came at a critical time. just as the index last week had made i

we heard from jay powell yesterday but he did not push back against easier financial conditions. so we get an equity market that continues to rally. no pushback on that. asian stocks are moving higher by about .7%. not too much action in the s&p 500. perhaps europe is the region that outperforms versus the world in 2023. looking across markets, we are having those managers just backing up the truck, loading up on bonds. jupiter is one of them. we been hearing from pimco that the yield you're getting is attractive. 10-year yield's are dropping by about three basis points. the bloomberg dollar spot continues to trade down around a seven month low. it does look to be forming a new trend of lower. is the market overdoing what they think is going to be a fed pause or pivot? the aussie dollar is picking up, there are more rate cuts being added on their in australia because we had stronger inflation data today. nymex crude dropping lower by about .7%. elsewhere we are seeing metals rally strongly, perhaps it is pre-cpi positioning. we are about to get these massive data points tomorrow.

i don't think it is receding as quickly as jay powell would like it to see. despite the dovish comments from the new york fed today i think 50 bps is not off the table at the next meeting. >> where do you stand overall on the best opportunities for money right now? are you one of those let me park it in short-term bonnes? >> no. you see as we move into fixed income products in a rising rate environment of course. but some of the tech names have the heck beaten out of them, liz, if you buy things like amazon, if you buy things like google, netflix, did a big turnaround on your show just before the holidays. liz: sure did. >> these stocks are looking cheap right now. expect volatility, don't look, we're not recommending day trading in these types of names. i don't think you will be disappointed own them, six, eight, certainly not 12 months from now. liz: you were right on netflix. we'll see if you're right on bullish and bearish picks. [closing bell rings] mark lopresti, market finishes higher. longest win streak in six months. ♪ larry: hello, folks, welcome

tom: the data is mixed and starting to suggest that the soft landing is there for jay powell. he could actually succeed in this front. maybe we need to talk more about quantitive tightening because we have not gotten there yet. but there is a window for a soft landing. >> there is a window for many things. i like his attitude. there is room for chaos. let's address the big question. it looks like u.s. inflation could be slipping quite shortly. what happened to the inflation? was it the feds or do we actually have a supply shock? are we coming to the realization that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and that doom loop for the dollar last year, was that the fed raising rates relative to other banks or was that the euro-dollar system tightening aggressively monetary policy and saying for collateral, i want u.s. treasury bonds. i don't want your btp's. i want the real thing. we don't see euro dollars. this non-fiat dollar created outside the purview of the federal reserve. when we look at what the fed can see, the fiat money is now decelerating so the invisible stuff is decelera

in the past, jay powell said there was a strong labor force let's get to the bloomberg business flash with laura wright. >> ftx founder sam bankman-fried has pleaded not guilty to criminal charges and will face trial in october. the 30-year-old is accused of illegally diverting massive sums of customer money from the cryptocurrency exchange to make lavish real estate purchases and risky trades. the eu is moving towards a requirement for masks and pre-flight covid testing on travelers from china. a commission spokesman says a strong majority of countries backed tests, which would go beyond what the eu health authorities recommended last week. any change will need to be approved by eu ambassadors who meet later today. bloomberg has learned that chinese bureaucrats are discussing plans to resume some imports of australian coal. the move comes after a ban of more than two years as relations improve between the two nations. china implemented an unofficial pause on imports in 2020 as hostilities between the two countries heightened. particularly over calls for an independent probe into the

it is very early cuts that kind of concern jay powell. tom: on that point, do we expect to see pushback? if we do, what is the market reaction to hawkish rhetoric that accompanies 25 basis? kriti: i think the ecb the day later is actually going to leave the train. if you think about with the federal reserve is doing, of course a hawkish rhetoric is going to a company that because that has been the trend so far. any sort of dovish pipit is only going to lead to some sort of rally in an equity markets and that is something that we know the federal reserve and chairman powell don't actually want to see. for that reason, i think all the action is going to happen the day after when it comes to thursday simply because of the reaction we are going to see in the euro, the dollar, and the ripple effects. alix: that is an interesting point because maybe the equity market is not where we are going to see the action. we did get higher inflation readings in spain. is that where you anticipate the action? kriti: yes. we know the united states is slowin

he has the latest comments from jay powell >> fed chair jay powell in a speech largely focused on central banking independence and less so on the economy and monetary policies. he'll say it provides the public with immeasurable pechbts. he says restoring price stability can require unpopular policies in the short term and the fed must earn its independence and do so by delivering on its mandates of maximum employment and price stability. it means that powell says we should stick to our -- they should resist the temptation to broaden our scope and then he goes on to say that new goals for the fed, without a statutory mandate from congress, can end up threatening the fed's independence specifically he talks a bit about climate change here saying climate change policies should be left to elected officials the fed responsibilities on climate change should be limited to the narrow area of assessing potential financial risk through its bank supervision responsibilities it is inappropriate, powell says, for the fed to use its tools to promote a greener economy. he said we will not be, quote, a c

stuart: jay powell said the fed will not be a climate policymaker in the market liked it and it went up on that news and now they've headed south, the dow was off 38 points. a lawsuit against big tech, they say platforms are worse than the youth mental health crisis. grady trimble, what is the district hoping to get out of this? >> reporter: they had to hire more mental health professionals to deal with an increase in anxiety, depression and eating disorders. in addition to other asks it wants the social media companies to pay for treatment for the problems those companies have caused. seattle public schools blame tiktok, instagram, facebook, youtube and snapchat for mental health and behavioral disorders and district students. here's a quote from this lawsuit, defendants have exploited the vulnerable brains of youth, hooking tens of millions of students into positive feedback loops of excessive use of social media. they curate indirect harmful and exploitation of. it goes on to say section 230 which protect social media companies from legal action over third-party contact doesn't ap

paul, what is your read on whether the market is kind of setting itself up on a tee for jay powell to take a swing tomorrow when he talks about what he's doing from here? >> yeah. he's got the bat ready, i think. but the last three days, we have seen big selloffs after the announcement so who knows what will happen tomorrow when you look at the broader perspective and the broader backdrop, the economy is a worry, definitely. the fed being that ultrahawkish is a concern but you have negative sentiment, and most importantly, the internals of the market, which we have been talking about, have been strong since october. give me the choice to invest based on the headlines or the e tattorney -- internals, i'll pik the internals every time >> what about the idea that all these leading indicators of a downturn seem to be lining up, people feel like it's when, not if for the economy yet the stock market is managing to fight through to the upside >> two things, like the two legs of the stool still standing for the economy are employment you still have an average of 200,000 a month jobs created

jay powell says they will keep the key rate at a high level. that will be a big issue on wednesday as well. >> as japan prepares to announce the replacement for the government, we look at why the country risks lagging behind on gender equality if women are shut out of the race. >> at the u.s. federal reserve and the european central bank, women have ascended to the top leadership ranks and the bank of japan is -- and it's 140 year history, the woman has never held the job of governor or deputy governor. the chief japan equity strategist worked at the bank of japan for more than a decade. she says it is time for the boj to change its attitude toward women. and also, think about their current policy, for many aspects, i think this is no time for the bank of japan to have seen your female readers. >> it looks like a woman does have a chance at taking one of the two deputy governor seats. this former boj official was the topic. >> i think that decision-making at the bank of japan will be more of a kansas between governor and deputy governor if she

treasury secretary janet yellen has given jay powell a huge boost because she is going to be spending money out of the nation's checking account otherwise would be required to stay in the nation's checking account because now we're under emergency measures. neil: let me ask about the balance sheet tightening. that you said could continue through june. >> absolutely. neil: we're not referring to the rate hikes that you think we'll see one tomorrow, probably see another one quarter -- >> potentially another. neil: in may i understand that, the likelihood of another quarter-point hike is only about 30%. in other words, the markets don't see a hike for now, happening. >> they're not anticipating that but they are anticipating and powell and others have said, we're going to keep shrinking the balance sheet for the remainder of 2023. that is another form of continuing on with tightening. not that they get the overnight rate up to the five percentage point level which we haven't seen in how long? neil: incredible. >> all four children as soon as rate height comes through they will invest in

. >>> it is fed week, and markets are looking for any hint about whether chair jay powell is at or near the end of the rate hike campaign senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with a preview. >> and fed chair jay powell faces a big challenge this week. he has to convince markets that rates need to rise and will rise to combat inflation or perhaps give in at least a little bit to the market's more dovish view of ra rates. markets expect a quarter point rate hike from the fed the gap stands at 64 basis points the fed raised its forecast for 2023 futures market failed to follow along. that is it decided for now to fight the fed. see who wins on that one the markets wants to be focused on the sharp decline in inflation over the past several months fedex has received two pce inflation reports. that's its preferred indicator they show a sharp slowing of headline from 4%, we're looking at a three-month annualized basis to 2.1% now. core went down from 5.4% down to 3% now that's a big drop on that measure. fed has seen two consumer spending reports where a strong october gave way

while inflation cooled down somewhat, we're a long way from where jay powell wants us to be and the gdp number could empower the hawks and fed that want to keep raising rates indefinitely and consistently the fed is trying to kill inflation but in recent weeks, commodity inflation is rising from its grief lumber up 30% year to date and metals, dr. copper so important for economic growth up 10% at the highest level since last june while natural gas keeps getting crushed by the warm weather, oil is moving up several points from the lows earlier this month. commodities are important. they were the first sign that inflation might soon be peeking last summer. the fact they rebounded hard now is not a good sign maybe the fed bought the titan more than we thought through the heart of inflation, which is wage inflation and that's a battle that the fed fears losing and they fear that more than anything excuse me. there have been no signs that wage inflation is cooling. that's the main reason why the fed is continuing to tighten remember, keep that in front of you. wage inflation is the problem.

so jay powell is going to hike 25, probably. could go 50. but i think most important thing is that he is going to try to send the market a little bit lower. the markets are again moving higher for a lot of reasons that i think are not legitimate. so for me and for my clients, i'm actually moving out of the cyclical sectors that have moved so much higher year-to-date. i think it's a premature rotation, maria, into that mean reversion trade, mean reversion of course being sectors, those asset classes that got the most decimated in the previous year banging on a mean reversion. i think it's premature for that and i'm still cautious. i love cash and cash equivalents, t-bills, maria, three month t-bills are yielding 4.7%. there's no earthly reason in my view to be taking ebbing which at the at this risks when you can -- equity risks when you can get cash equivalents the that yield 4.7% on a three month horizon. maria: it's great analysis. don't forget, after we get through all of these rate hikes from the federal reserve, we'll start to see more

. >>> fed chair jay powell doubling down on the fed's inflation fight even as critics say they risk going too far. in a speech today in stockholm powell said restoring price stability can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy. should markets rule out a pause and a pivot or not joining us now is bill lee, the chief economist at the milken institute. steve liesman as well. what do you think about the fed's current stance >> well, the fed is actually not convinced we are on our way down to 2% inflation. a lot of incoming data shows initial signs of it, but when you go to the forecast meetings at the fed, the first thing that's always asked, the last data point come about because of a change in the shift or did wages actually come down what corroborating evidence do you have the employment cost index hasn't come out yet a lot of the data now pointing in the right direction but there's not convincing evidence. the fed is not in a rush and they always say we don't move on one data point >> the stockholm speech, what do you think t

jay powell delivers on wednesday. the s&p 500 and nasdaq are a lot lower than they were on the week. 3.5495. in europe it is all about the data between now and the ecb announcement. you get cpi reads from france and germany. lisa: someone wrote in on our discussion of stagflation, " is this stagflation transitory?" jonathan: let's start with that question. what is more important to you this week german powell or payroll on friday? >> the data -- chairman powell or payroll on friday? >> the data. the market is moving in that direction. he wants to push back on that. when we look at the data, there i think is a substantial possibility for a's apprised of the market. we think the consensus will be in the ballpark accurate. we think the trends we are seeing now with respect to the data and on the economy and on inflation are likely to continue here for the next couple of months. lisa: how do you push back against people who say it is too neat for the 10 year yield to continue to decline and for people to get confidence th

i want to know how that relates to jay powell? you know, because, you know, a lot of folks are saying, he is talking a good game. no way he can be aggressive as he wants to. that would even hurt the u.s. government's ability to operate. >> it will make the interest expense a rapidly growing expense item, charles, for certain. those interest expenses already have caused the fed to lose a lot of money which they treat as a tax deferred asset. politically it will be a problem for the fed, charles and jay powell when the unemployment rate goes up as inflation is coming down, can the fed really hold the line on the tough talk and hold the line on what i would argue are pretty high interest rates. charles: right. >> as inflation is moderating. that is when it is going to be tricky. we're not there yet. i think it will come soon. i do expect the labor market to meaningfully weaken. charles: minute to go, joe, hard landing or soft landing? >> hard landing, charles, but it will be a mild recession because i expect the fed to pivot and they

fed chair, jay powell, talking about the fed's role in fighting it lots of people talking about the news that ozone layer may, in fact, get this, be healing plus we'll talk to an analyst who has ideas on how to make money off of our clean future. >>> and forget the cpi, the ppi, pmi, all the data points we have our eyes squarely fixed on the american consumer we will look at some alternative economic indicators that may paint a different picture of the economy than what fed and the markets seem to be focused on. >>> very much looking forward to that hi, everybody. let's look at stocks in the green right now, although they were slightly negative earlier on the dow up 114, the nasdaq up three quarters of 1% we're seeing big movers there. check out, for instance, warner brothers discovery up for the eighth straight day now up 30% this year. talk about a turnaround for wbd. bank of america adding the stock to its u.s. one list credit a lot of deal making hopes for a little bit of the rebounding there now coinbase also building on its recent rally, now cutting another 20% of staff seven month

. >> jay powell has made very clear, 5.5. what's we think we'll get to five in be there at the end of the year. >> the more important thing is how long rates stay high. >> high holds. >> the market has to look at what the fed is actually communicating to them. katie: joining us now is morgan stanley's, wells fargo moreno connor, and peter cheer of academy. we heard the consensus. this six straight months of declines in headline cpi equal a 25 basis point hike from the fed next month? >> it is nice to see inflation moderating. it is probably not moving at a pace as quickly as the fed would like on the core components. we have seen some fakes before with inflation. i think we will proceed with caution but the data does support a moderation in the pace of rate hikes. it had been our base case that the fed would move 50 in february. we have taken that now to 25. we do not believe this is the last fed rate hike. believe there is capacity for at least one if not two more. we think a table hit 5% before hanging there for quite some

but he's made quite clear, and i think jay powell has said the same thing, if you want to know what risk am i willing to take, i'd rather take the risk of doing too much than doing too little governor waller is clearly in that camp. >> ron, you say the labor market, which the fed is focused on, is not tight because the economy is so strong, but it is tight because there simply aren't enough people to fill the jobs that are out there. you cite a variety of factors that play into that. covid related deaths, long covid, early retirements and so forth. but isn't it also the case that lots of workers don't want the jobs that are out there waiting to be filled or needing people or that the workforce doesn't have the skills to fill the jobs that are out there >> well, that's an interesting damned if you do, damned if you don't proposition you outlined, with respect to that, tyler. look, number one, the unemployment rate is extremely low. arguing that there are people not taking jobs is an impossibility. we're at the lowest unemployment rate in four decades at least. there are some jobs, obvious

scarlett: jay powell did not give us anything. [crosstalk] no mention of terminal rate.

i wish that we saw that right before jay powell's getting renominated. when he was calling inflation transitory because you had no problem getting political then. anyway, it's okay that were now finally hearing him say is not to get involved in this climate change agenda. >> appeals we are complicating him since he was captain of transitory. maria: right before he wanted to get nominated. >> maybe we shouldn't be lobbing him for not doing something he should be doing but given the context where you have a lot of regulators including the chairman of the sec gary gensler trying to turn their organizations unfortunately enter climate enforcers, it is refreshing to have him say look we have a job to do it's an important job is the bedrock of society, it's a currency, we have to maintain price stability in the fitting regulator is going to become the climate enforcer that has to come from a law passed by the congress, you can't appoint yourself the climate czar much as some regulators would like to do, i do give him credit for that, he standing apart and we h

they are worried about the sky high price of housing so personally, i'm praying jay powell didn't listen to the conference call. ce o'ryan marshall kicked it off by saying we end 2022 on a high note as we close 8900 homes and deliver all-time fourth quarter records. that's not what the fed wants to hear now, he did see new orders down 27% year over year marshall noted quote the softer demand is a result of consumers priced out of the market by higher prices and higher mortgage rates with individuals moving to the sidelines given market uncertainties and risks that's one for the fed and worrisome inflation. oh, no, go one page into the slide deck and see how confusingly bullish this moment is because the company actually raised housing prices by 17% all the way to 571,000 on average. are these numbers a sign of america's great wealth or saying when rates levelled off at the end of last year, buyers started coming back to the housing market we are saying they are fraud or crazy, who knows the negative interpretations, they don't cut it now. in a bull market, you do nothing. you know one th

it's now clearer that jay powell, the fed chief, is actually winning the war on inflation, which is why the dow jumped 217 points today, s&p gained .34% and the nasdaq advanced another .64%! that was on the sixth straight month of better inflation numbers. so on the eve of earnings season we can stop worrying about the big picture and talk about what makes individual stocks go higher why don't we start with the basics tomorrow we'll hear from most of the big banks. they'll unleash a slew of numbers. most of them will be actually irrelevant to the stocks but not all of them. what do we care about? loan growth, defaults, how much money they're making off your deposits they're paying you nothing and get you 3%, 4% we'll see a set of headline numbers, the earnings, the revenue, the forecasts it will look simple but it's never simple with the banks. and their numbers are often impacted by an amalgam of one-time considerations which throws off our ability to make clean apples to apples comparisons with the analyst estimates. now, most of the time the bank stocks instantly go higher or at leas

powell. you want to hear this. >>> coming up next, we're going to talk more about the federal reserve, particularly the vice chair suggesting that the central bank maybe wants to slow the pace. we're starting to hear that more and more, but first, how momentum in consumer spending could eventually maybe help trigger just a mild recession, maybe soften the blow a little bit. we'll discuss that next. ♪ ♪ if -- can money, money, money, must be funny in a rich man's world ♪ at adp, we use data-driven insights to design solutions to help you manage payroll, benefits, and hr today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪ thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-bo

jay powell, chairman of the federal reserve, is speaking right now in stockholm, sweden, and one of the things he said is , we are not and will not be a climate policy maker. very interesting divergence there for the fed chair, and the markets coming back a little on that. a group of senators from both sides of the aisle got a first- hand view of how weaknesses at the border are being exploited. mark meredith is with us. he's in el paso, texas right now critics say biden saw a sanitiz ed version of the border. what did the senators see last night? >> well, stu, it was very dark but these senators were right there up against the fenceline, where these people when they tried to come across the united states they have to get through whether or not they are human smugglers or drug cartels like you said trying to exploit some of the same weaknesses to come over the rio grande here into the united states. take a look at some of the exclusive video because we were the only crew that was there as these senators were getting briefings to see what is happening on a daily basis, talking to the men

charles: jay powell, folks, getting fed up with the idea of the fed put. so there's really a staggering evaluation that he's also against all valuation, speculation that we're talking about, but, you know, here's the problem though, they helped create a lot of this. so they might be between a rock and a hard place. i've got judy shelton coming up to discuss that and also why it might be better to work on your poke per face than your economics degree if you want to work on wall street, speaking of gambling. we'll be right back. ♪ can't read my, no, he can't read my poker face. ♪ can't read my, can't read my -- ♪ no, he can't read my poker face ♪ ards wasn't good. i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. between the high interest, the fees... i felt trapped. debt, debt, debt. so i broke up with my credit card debt and consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. i finally feel like a grown-up. break up with bad credit card debt. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up t