jess: we did not get a ton of clues from powell today. the big thing we have cpi on thursday but looking toward the last report, the equity market did not have quite the volatile moves we had seen last year. seven of the 12 cpi reports were down days in on average the last six months the s&p 500 has moved to .6% either direction. not quite the same momentum with that last cpi report. bloomberg intelligence does not expect to see the same swings because they think the market is pricing in those big moves already. when i have been talking to strategists, a lot of money was stocked around that 30 not hundred level -- 3900 lab level. kriti: thank you for your insight as always. coming up, we talked to the finance minister of ontario. developing the province's investor base. that conversation, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your website and your store was also the first time you realized... we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? [together] the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always

what do you think jay powell say? will he chide investors again for making it harder for the fed to get the job done? will he lean more into the soft dish more dovish position that people are getting to count on or is it going to come back tough? that it's going to stay wherever it is for a long time because the job isn't done when it comes to fighting inflation? guest: i think he will acknowledge the improvement in numbers. the hawkish part is going to be the emphasis that there is still great deal of uncertainty and a long way to go to bring inflation back down to the 2% target. that said, the means by which they will try to engineer that is less about ratcheting rate hikes more aggressively in the near term and more an emphasis on holding rates at higher levels whether they get to what they have in their projections or if they stop one rate hike short of that which is what it sounds like right now. the real issue i think diversions between the fed and markets, i think the fed is coming toward the markets on the ver

powell talked about the challenge here. he clearly does not want to go back to the 70's and make the mistakes that were made then. is it still really about doing more rather than less? kate: i think it will be doing more rather than less. as people have discussed on the show previously, we are likely to get to a rate and stay there. one of the things that sort of confused me has been that the market doesn't seem to want to believe anything the fed speakers are saying. if people give a very clear message, these policymakers, then the market is like, i don't believe you, you have to change her mind, we are right, you are wrong. i think we need to take them seriously and take them at their word. once we get to a rate they feel is appropriate for the economy, they are going to hold that rate for a considerable period of time. that phrase over and over again. i don't think that's going to be a bad environment for equities, by the way. we will have a level of certainty. there will be no significant policy changes. we will see mar

it will be interesting to hear from chair powell. jonathan: to clarify what you said, coming back toward 2 at the end of 2023, do you think that we land at 2 or going toward by the end of 2023? zachary: both. the fed has recognized, in several adjustments to the statement policy, recognizing risks are more balanced than they have been in some time. the fed is looking at inflation on a forward basis. we think the services disinflation especially from shelter cost is coming in the second half of the year. as they calibrate policy over the next couple months, those factors will be crucial. that will be what emerges over the next couple months with a policy pause, not pivot. jonathan: zachary griffiths, that was great. we joke about everyone being consensus but we have had calls this morning. another 25 basis point hike and that a pause. convinced of getting back to 2 by the end of the year. lisa: how does that fit into the labor market story we been hearing with a structurally tight labor market? this is the conflict that is inherent in

>> as i said, i do expect a more hawkish powell taking throthe out of the market. i am prepared for that you have to pick the names you will like in the next six to nine months down the road. >> i will see you in overtime. >>> up next, mike santoli joins us with his midday word plus we are getting ready to grade your trade e-mail us @askhalf-time. we'll be right back. ♪ old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible. that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ >>> we're back mike santoli joining us from the new york stock exchange. it's the real great hope this week is it real or false? we will find out >> yeah, scott, i do think it's still hope as opposed to the consensus expectation that the market is going to essentially redeem, you know, this little rush towards risks that we have gotten in the first month of the year everybody knew coming into th

will jay powell continue to back down the doves? the other big driver continues to be the china reopening story. how much of it is priced in? this morning, we are seeing gains in prices of iron ore. on cctv, the beijing acting mayor has said that the capitol has passed the peak infection rates. oil is down by 0.3%. equities are slightly slower but that might just be from that central bank speak. coming up next is "markets: europe". this is bloomberg. ♪ (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo

how can jay powell fight something like that? on the other hand, the public when they start to know about this they will be outraged about these prices? >> fair enough. don't forget that the public doesn't pay these prices. their insurance companies do, medicare does. so it turns out that prescription drugs are very big part of cpi and they're not inflating very fast. in fact over the last year, prescription drug prices are inflating below the fed target of 2%. so yeah, it's outrageous. if you have hemophilia b, you want someone pay any price to extend your life a little while maybe not so outrageous. don't worry about it, has nothing to do with inflation. charles: 30 seconds, you said be school, stay the course don't fret. we're fretting. give us words of kiss dom. >> i don't know a word of wisdom but just a facts. in less than three months the stock market is up 10%? okay. can we stop fretting? smell the roses, man. charles: okay. happy new year, don. always a pleasure. >> you too, buddy. charles: always appreciate it. all righ

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remember that jay powell came out of 2018? nicer, kinder, friendlier jay powell? that seems like that will not happen. the recession debate rages on with the fed almost guaranteeing a sign of mission accomplished to get to a recession even as recent data is giving a lot of folks hopes of a so-called soft landing. morgan stanley says that, if there is recession the s&p 500 could go to 3,000. that is a huge drop from where we are right now. we wait for official verdict on all of this, recession, earnings, are actually going to come upon us really quickly. they start this week. it has been a good omen that earnings surprises is not a good omen if you take a look. earnings surprises they have been coming down a lot since 2021. i want to bring in ria advisor cio lance roberts. lance, the piece you published today the lag effect of fiscal pig and economic python. it sounds, a term that you used before. essentially you're saying that the lag effect, right? the fed, these aggressive rate hikes they don't instantaneously impact the economy. they all sort of build up. they

i don't think it changes the vote that powell gets. the sensible thing to do is, i think powell will signal this, time to see how things happen, inflation is slowing down. we saw today with the employment cost index wages are starting to slow. it makes sense to say let's take this one month at a time. maybe we can slow down or stop these rate increases but he is in a fight with the market, because he doesn't want the market to get ahead of itself. liz: we have a lot of market participants and traders, keith fitzgerald, a lot of people say the fed needs to stop. this is going to be an overshoot. i will say what the federal reserve has done so far is working if you look at what they aimed to do, that is bring down inflation slowly, don't shock the market, you brought up the employment cost index, lighter than expected, cpi for the most recent print later than expected, no real shocks here, we are starting to see the data inch down slowly to cool things off because borrowing costs are going up. am i wrong in saying that the fed appears to

fed chair powell didn't seem to push back against this. do wonder if her going to get into the scenario that every time we have a rally, be it in the bond market, lower dollar, strong equity market, that we will see a federal reserve who wants to back that down because they don't want conditions to be easy like they are at this moment. julien: the fed has done a tremendous amount of hard work in getting where they are. they are not going to give the market this narrative of a pivot early on. they are going to hammer home the message that they are in for the long run and they want to keep the rate elevated for a while, until they don't. it's likely they will keep pushing back against market expectation until they start to price out some of those 2023 cuts. dani: so you like fixed income at the moment. jupiter asset thinks treasury yields could fall to 2%. could you ceos going to 2%? julien: if we experience a much more severe recession, that is definitely a possibility. is not a zero probability, it's something that is in the realm of possi

that's a metric that jay powell has emphasized. i think this will cause the fed to freeze or go even harder. jonathan: we were talking about the immaculate disinflation, can we get wage growth to come in. do you think we can? >> i think it's tricky. the variable lags of fed policy is still working its way through the system and we just don't know we have accelerated the jobs picture and have had mixed signals in the job market which is still relatively healthy. i think the fed wants some slack back in and they are projecting a higher unemployment rate but it's going in the opposite direction. they will have to fight for it. jonathan: i want to share this with you -- financial conditions are now easing and have been for a couple of months porting economic growth. i think the life is short and predictable. what do you think of this short-term call? >> a lot of this comes down to not just liquidity to nymex and the tightness of fed policy relative to market conditions and a lot of it is global. it's what's going on with qt and changin

he has the latest comments from jay powell >> fed chair jay powell in a speech largely focused on central banking independence and less so on the economy and monetary policies. he'll say it provides the public with immeasurable pechbts. he says restoring price stability can require unpopular policies in the short term and the fed must earn its independence and do so by delivering on its mandates of maximum employment and price stability. it means that powell says we should stick to our -- they should resist the temptation to broaden our scope and then he goes on to say that new goals for the fed, without a statutory mandate from congress, can end up threatening the fed's independence specifically he talks a bit about climate change here saying climate change policies should be left to elected officials the fed responsibilities on climate change should be limited to the narrow area of assessing potential financial risk through its bank supervision responsibilities it is inappropriate, powell says, for the fed to use its tools to promote a greener economy. he said we will not be, quote, a c

and who better to do that than powell? >> the secretary's presentation is intended to win the security council's authorization for military action to disarm iraq. in the end, president bush says he does not need the authorization, but he would like to have it. >> in the vice president's office, they had already written a speech for powell. it was every rumor, every bit of unverified intelligence they had ever gotten. and he got it and looked at it and said, "pfft, i'm not gonna give this speech, are you kidding?" >> colin powell spent a few days at the cia going over all their intelligence, and the majority of it was discarded. >> our conservative estimate is that iraq today has a stockpile of between 100 and 500 tons of chemical weapons agent. an iraqi major who defected confirmed that iraq has mobile biological research laboratories. saddam hussein already possesses two out of the three key components needed to build a nuclear bomb. >> powell had some doubts, but i think those doubts were pretty much dispelled by the dir

when you look ahead, what kind of jerome powell will we get? >> i think we will be focused on what kind of forward guidance we can infer from his comments, in particular how he responds to questions during the press conference. i expect they will ask questions on the data and the prospect for a soft landing and what is the reaction function of the bed. there is some evidence on some metrics the inflation is trending lower. there are a lot of those types of questions that will be asked and we will try to go through many of them, every word to infer what the potential forward guidance from here would be. i agree with the 25 basis points. there is no question it will be 25 basis points hike. katie: when it comes to wednesday, it's all about the presser in the guidance but looking beyond wednesday, there is a lot of optimism on the idea that the bed is getting close to the end of its tightening cycle. where do you think we are in that journey? >> we are pretty far along. the market is really anticipating and starting to price ahead of the fed that

i think chair powell has learned his lesson to say we're looking at the data. we have to have enough data to be convincing. as a lawyer he will have to say the bulk of the evidence has to be convincing enough to convince a jury and here the jury is the fomc >> steve >> it's a weird world here, kelly, and you can see the weirdness of this world by looking at the nfib survey this is the small business survey done by our friend. 41%, a net 41%, are looking for jobs, and in that same world a minus 10% see higher sales and then look what's happened to the percent planning to raise prices it crashed down ten points on the month to the third largest decrease in the 50-year history of this survey and at 24, kelly, it's back darn near the average of the past several years which is just 21 those planning to raise prices so there's good evidence here that both will have hiring going on but also lower inflation in the pipe >> steve, also, i want to circle back to what the chair is trying to tell markets. we could joke and say it's pretty obvious he's telling them they're g

he turns to powell and powell scruples on the corner of the paper and put it down and he slides it to reagan and reagan looks at it and then gets up and says, the answer is no adding that paragraph and gorbachev explodes and gets in reagan's face is a little shorter. he's like in this space and they are really yelling at each other and the whole deal is about ready to fall apart and then gorbachev backs down and says okay and he's kind of defeated and they don't add the paragraph. everybody files out of the room and marlon fitzwater goes back to the table and sees the little piece of paper and picks it up and it says if you agree you can never criticize them again meaning you can never criticize the soviet union began if you put that paragraph in a deal. reagan saw that and trusted powell so much that he risked the whole nuclear deal on that graph. so colin powell's influence not only with reagan but the bushes and a lot of people in washington were exponential. >> i know president reagan stated publicly at one point that he had hoped that powell would run for presidency and he would

jay powell is in the camp as well too. things are moving in the right direction but we cannot think about pivoting. yes, they're going to pause because they have already preannounced that they're going to raise rates another 75 basis points to get it to 5%. then they are going to hold f they raise rates tomorrow they will within half a percent of that target so that shouldn't be a shock but if wall street is hoping for cheaper money, i don't think we're there just yet. charles: right. i think though not necessarily cheaper money. as i was saying maybe the cuts come late this year but i just think maybe calling off the war. putting a pause, you start with four 75 basis point hikes, a 50 basis-point hike. this has been fairly aggressive by historical standards. i think a lot of folks on the street would be happy if the fed takes a look, step back, we want to see our handiwork, instead of committed to pounding this with a mallet no matter what the data says? >> i think they have already announced that they have already announ

will tell jody powell was his press secretary and jody powell had a great sense of humor. jody powell had gotten by things with carter that other people did not. and jody power powell once told a story that when he was working in the white house that a couple saying something significant. diane, was like wetting your pants when you were wearing dark colored suit that you might feel all warm and comfortable, but would ever notice another one. i can't. is it some program was here i again i'm you've owned it i think it was the history conference saying that tim kraft i believe who worked in carter campaign had heard that he had heard that story and i happened to i don't know he must i got paid very well because he's really staying in the same cheap that we were staying in which is the one we're staying in and now and he was and he just laughed and he said he liked the story. they said, you know, the apple did not fall far from the tree. okay. here is a two part question. that's a tough one. how do you sum up and assess the carter's but also, what do you hope your readers will

and jay powell not talking about inflation yesterday. tom: and j.p. morgan suggesting of inflation is softer, it could push this bear market rally higher. we continue to assess the implications, jeffrey gundlach saying you need to look at the bond market rather than listen to the fed when it comes to the trajectory for rate hikes. but maybe investors are getting too complacent about inflation once again. markets expecting inflation comes down to 2.5 percent next year. markets opening up .1% in the u.k., in france, the cac 40 getting 11 points as we brace for the potential of industrial action next week. and the spanish ibex range bound. cross assets, you had a decent rally in u.s. equities yesterday on expectations that maybe the cpi print thursday is going to come in software. expectations for around 6.5% after plus 7% for the month of november, futures pointing lower .1%. a little profit-taking, it is the inflation print that is the key data point. euro-dollar 1.07, strength for the single currency. the bloomberg dollar index is hovering dear a seve

every single time market rallied hard last year, jay powell dropped the hammer. it was like vintage mike tyson, swift and powerful blows, and every single time they knocked the rally out. this week fed officials including mary daly, remember the dove? have openly wondered why are investors assuming the inflation night is over? she really can't believe that investors are lining up to get shocked once again by powell. again, this is the ultimate game of chicken. beyond the powell intrigue and the federal market, the market internals, you know, are sending some interesting messages here. walter deemer put out a pretty good piece last night, really intriguing. he announced that the market has generated what's known as a breakout, breakaway momentum. it's only the 25th time since 1945, and that would mean that we're in a new bull market. joining me now to discuss, yardeni research ed yardeni. ed, i saw a bunch of headlines go by yesterday. you've been on fire, my man, and apparently you're also saying we're in a new bull market, right? >> yeah. i've been saying for a

powell speaks today. apple considers dropping a key feature from its devices in favor of its own semi conductors. qatar is said to be looking at manchester united, liverpool, or tottenham hotspur for a possible deal after hosting the most expensive world cup ever. francine: they got a taste for it. this is the picture for futures. a bit of pressure. i have to say, we look at some of the hawkish comments we have from raphael bostic and mary daly. let's take a couple of days off, it is thursday. tom: that is the key data point. we are in -- on tuesday. a bit of profit taking across these markets ahead of the cpi print. in terms of giving it a clearer direction. we did have those officials coming out, nonvoting members, but the view that you will get 5% or above and held above -- for longer. the significance of these markets, we continue to weigh up what is happening in china. a bit of a pause in terms of the reopening trade across equities. different for iron or. the ftse 100 down 0.4%. the boe chief changi

jay powell will -- 25 basis points. jay powell will come out and say, we need to keep rates for longer. tom: michael mckee with us front and center with our economic coverage. we take this data and take it on a more global scale, seth carpenter. i know you're going to run our team here as they analyze eci. is china a 3% story? or is it a 5% story that can make things more complex where the chairman of the federal reserve? dr. carpenter: a fantastic question. the china reopening story is the big narrative going on in markets. we have been bullish. i think we are above consensus. five and three quarters above and may be a bit more. very bullish. for us, reopening. it when you talk about spillovers back to the u.s., when you think about what it does for chair powell, there are probably a little less dramatic than you might otherwise think. a big story for people who are investing in china and the region. let's go back to the u.s. in terms of inflation, it is not going to be quite vague right now -- big right now. we import

examining, naval gazing it is called when jerome powell would speak. they are betting he would say interest rates and the trends. no more, depo little sized institution as if. get the gauge made of key inflationary data due out on thursday. connell mcshane following that, so much more. connell. >> reporter: as if, right. we were waiting for powell to your point make some sort of a point about the markets when he was speaking a the central bank conference in sweden but he really didn't. he didn't give investors any hints what the fed's next move might look like. no direct comments about economic or monetary policy at all while speaking in europe. he said interesting things. he was in part of the speech where he was saying price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy. then the chairman said higher interest rates also carry some political risk. >> restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy. >> reporter: powell said after that, that the f

he turns the powell and powell scrambles on the corner of the paper. and he puts it down and he slides it to reagan. and raegan looks at it and then gets up and says, the answer is, no. we are not adding that paragraph. and gorbachev explodes in gets in reagan's face. and in short order he's in his face. they are really yelling at each other, the whole deal is about ready to fall apart. and then gorbachev backs down and says okay. and they don't have the paragraph. and so everybody files out of the room. and they go back to the table and they see the piece of paper. and powell says, if you agree, you can never criticize them again. you could never criticize the soviet union again if you put that paragraph in a deal. and reagan saw that and he trusted powell so much. the whole deal was on that paragraph. so it was not only palace influence with reagan but with the bush's. and a lot of people. >> i know reagan stated publicly at one point that he hoped at how we run for president some day. and he would vote for him. bret, it's been a very quick hour with

and rick is also right that fed chair powell, jay powell mentioned this number specifically as something he's watching, as a potential source of inflation i don't think he believes it's coming there right now, although there is some push-up from higher wages into prices, especially in the service sector and he's going to say, look, it's going in the right direction. and it really boils down to this debate, becky, about how much is enough market looks at three months of declining year over year inflation when it comes to either on a 12-month basis or a 3-month annualized basis and then i talked to waller last friday, and he says, yeah, great, talk to me in march and see this continues the fed will put out this fire very, very -- very assured that the fire is out and that the market is ready to move on and say inflation is already under control. >> steve, just in terms of the fed's perspective on this, do you think they're breathing a sigh of relief at all or no? >> yeah, i mean, i think they're breathing a sigh of relief, but i don't think that they're sort of letting down their guard. it

do we truly want to figure out what jay powell is likely to do from scratch every single session? that feels more like investing it's why i started the show tonight how to handle earnings, not how to handle today's last half hour of trading everyone has an opinion but this chatter is a foolish guessing game you're much better off searching for quality stocks that work regardless of what the fed does. if you play this parlor game, you're liable to be captured by fear and miss the main chance. we know the fed said it depending on the data but want to err on the side of stamping inflation. that's what the staff says each time the market reacts because somehow regard as new information, frankly, that is just silly the real information comes from the economy itself jay powell is not going to stop or even pause the rate hikes until he sees disinflation that's what he's told us take the man at his word for heaven sake. commentators act like every piece of information is a game changer. last friday, we got three different software macro numbers lower than expected wages, slower factory or

he has the latest comments from jay powell >> fed chair jay powell in a speech largely focused on central banking independence and less so on the economy and monetary policies. he'll say it provides the public with immeasurable pechbts. he says restoring price stability can require unpopular policies in the short term and the fed must earn its independence and do so by deliveri

jay powell delivers on wednesday. the s&p 500 and nasdaq are a lot lower than they were on the week. 3.5495. in europe it is all about the data between now and the ecb announcement. you get cpi reads from france and germany. lisa: someone wrote in on our discussion of stagflation, " is this stagflation transitory?" jonathan: let's start with that question. what is more important to you this week german powell or payroll on friday? >> the data -- chairman powell or payroll on friday? >> the data. the market is moving in that direction. he wants to push back on that. when we look at the data, there i think is a substantial possibility for a's apprised of the market. we think the consensus will be in the ballpark accurate. we think the trends we are seeing now with respect to the data and on the economy and on inflation are likely to continue here for the next couple of months. lisa: how do you push back against people who say it is too neat for the 10 year yield to continue to decline and for people to get confidence th

what do you expect to hear from jay powell? at this point, to the words not even make an impact on markets going their own way? >> i think they matter in the sense that the fed is really focused on some of the stickier measures of inflation. we did see markets respond favorably. the fed is on -- also focused on sector inflation. inflation is going to be coming down this year. i think there will be good news simply based on the lag impact and tightening the fed has already done. if they are really focused on slow-moving variables, you have a set up for the fed to over tighten monetary policy and a recession to ensue and that is the direct message of the yield curve. the policy rate is above the two year yield now all the way out. a sustained deep yield curve inversion is not a soft landing story. it is kind of interesting that wall street strategists were tripping over themselves on friday to declare the soft landing based on a one market -- one-day stockmarket rally. i think if you read the credit markets and their historical f

was the picture of health. >> i'm chris powell. >> i'm heidi powell. >> reporter: a duo unmatched in the fitness world. but while chris was inspiring people with what seemed like relentless positivity, off screen his journey took a turn for the worse. >> i have been working out regularly since i was 14. i had to peel myself off the couch to go on a walk. you know something's wrong in my life. >> take us think the last seven years. >> my wife and i were going through some really difficult times. i literally started to shut down. i couldn't think straight. i couldn't carry on conversations. i started withdrawing from life. i started to lose hope in everything. >> reporter: that mental health battle was especially amplified as his ten-year marriage fell apart in the public eye. >> what's really scary is that the side of me that was starting to come out was the worst version of me and it was the worst version of me for heidi and it was the worse version of ally needed some help.ei realed solution, over the next five years, chris says he saw six different therapists. >> the final therapis

if powell says we think we're nearing the end of the rate hike cycle, boom, hit it. if powell says, you know, we think maybe the lifk risks are a balance between growth -- if they say we believe that we may have to -- i mean, people never say this, we have to reverse course toward the end. the market is poised and ready to bounce on it. he has to be monotone and not make almost any comment at all that would -- that could be perceived as dovish because of what you just said >> here is my controversial question -- why should that matter why are they so afraid of a stock market rally, especially one that could be a dead end if the economy is slowing >> i think what they see the stock market as is just another piece of the financial conditions index they do not believe -- what they want is they want an economy that is running below potential to create slack, to bring down inflation. they're concerned right now, financial conditions have not really tightened a lot they have loosened a little bit since the fed went up to that 5% forecast an economy where rates are essentia

my income business went to nothing because of powell. it is finally woken up. charles: remember at one point we had 18 trillion around the world a was negative yield. >> oh, yeah. charles: we come a long way. gary. can, i love when you sound this way, my man. you make me excited. i got to let you go. >> fingers crossed my man, fingers crossed. charles: gary k. bullish on bonds you're excited. who else is bullish on them. double line ceo jeff gundlach. he is my special guest tomorrow. he says the bond market is in control. get some of that wisdom tomorrow, folks. he is the man. first on our show, sarah kuntz is with us, if you love the iphone, why don't you love the stock? this might be your chance to buy it. wait until you hear what rob luna is buying. we'll be right back. ♪ knowing where you came from, it gives you a sense of “this is who i am”. oh my goodness... wow, look at all those! you get hungry for more and then you're just like, “wow, i'm learning about my family.” yeah, yep. which one, what'd you find? lorraine banks, look, county of macomb,

i'm michael powell president and ceo of the internet and television association. and our members have invested hundreds of billions of dollars over 20 years to bring broadband to 90% of households and while we are proud of that achievement we recognize that the work is undone. many of our members would love to serve parts of the country but are unable to do so because they are cost prohibited. we are excited, motivated and committed to work with congress and community organizations to make this last great opportunity a founding success over the last couple of years. it's not an exaggeration to say that this is a once in a generation opportunity for three reasons. first the amount of money appropriated is genuinely unprecedented, ten times the amount of money that was allocated and authorized during the program in 2009, and it really addresses the core concern in many unserved areas. simply put, it is too causal to serve but too little too operated to the rest of the network without a loss. this scale of resources provided the first meaningful opportunity to genuin

jackie: tom if you are jerome powell looking at numbers who you does this impact what you are going to do with rates as we move forward. >> i think i love charles i think a little chicken little [laughter] >> i am going with joerm powell i think going to raise rates probably going to be, 50 basis points, 25 to 50 is fine remember where raising interest rates, so we have a lever to pull when things gets bad what is driving this economy is labor market, and what we're seeing is we just added almost a quarter of a million jobs in december, we are acting like things bad stock market up, what we're seeing participation rate isn't what we want the participation i have been in this business 25 years. the participation rate is never what we want. ever. a problem in this country one of the other guests said people wanting to work that is a huge problem that we need to configure the out how to address in this country, over last few years entitlement program, that is only enhanced the problem we've got to look at it now and say big tech, thought that they were going to be smart of the people in t

fairly muted investors in a holding pattern ahead of the fed chair powell's comments later today on the data front, consumer expectations have declined according to the survey, the one-year inflation outlook dipped from the previous month and hitting the lowest level since july of 2021. >>> two federal reserve officials say inflation data out this week will decide if they show the pace of hikes later this week. raphael bostic would consider slower rate hikes if the data confirmed the cooling scene in the last jobs report and mary daly said the case can be made for a half or quarter point increase >> jay powell will speak at the symposium in stockholm today the speech is scheduled for 1500 cet and comes on the heels of the jobs report. on thursday, we get latest reading on the inflation according to the fed watch tool, traders ares are pricing in a 2e rate at the next meeting >> we will hear from others at stockholm today. andrew bailey and the bank of japan governor and the bank of canada what an amazing day coming up if you are into that thing. >> i'm very excited for you. >> looking f

we expect to be here in from fed chair jay powell. -- hearing from fed chair jay powell. >> the annual asian financial forum starts today in hong kong. let's crossover to the event where yvonne man is standing by. >> the 16th asian financial forum here in hong kong. this is days after hong kong's parcel reopening with the mainland. hong kong welcomes the world back here. i am pleased to kick off our coverage here with the philippine secretary of finance, benjamin diokno. >> thank you for having me. nice to be back. >> have to ask you about the macro picture that we are seeing across the world. the fed seems to be downshifting. >> i think that is a positive boost for us. we have adjusted also, but not to the extent the fed has. it is good news for us. >> do you think has the space to transition to lower 25 basis point hikes? >> i think so. i think the governor said a possible 25 basis point. >> even with inflation at 8%? >> yes. we are confident inflation will be 2.5 this year. we know we hit by .8 last year. we are confident that by 2024, it will hit right in the middle of the 2% until

>> everybody -- >> we had everybody else but all the market cares about is powell and powell has been the wet blanket for the market every time the market gets sort of ahead of itself -- >> nobody believes powell. nobody really believed him i mean that's why we're here today. >> yeah, but this week, this week we have to believe powell within eyeshot of the cpi. if he's not throwing sand on a potential -- a little bit of a bull market, no one knows exactly will happen. if earnings come in slightly better i think this market could overtake that 4000 level in the s&p and take out the 200 which has been -- it's been rejected multiple times in the s&p and then everyone has to scramble to chase a market that they don't want to chase. >> i mean, here's the thing. i think one way to approach the market, right, is this, that we all agree can only do one of two thing, up, down or sideways. easier than medical school. >> close the show again. >> if we know we have that yet what we are supposed to do is eliminate the scenario we think is the most unlikely i think big up is unlikely, downway or si

charles: jay powell, folks, getting fed up with the idea of the fed put. so there's really a staggering evaluation that he's also against all valuation, speculation that we're talking about, but, you know, here's the problem though, they helped create a lot of this. so they might be between a rock and a hard place. i've got judy shelton coming up to discuss that and also why it might be better to work on your poke per face than your economics degree if you want to work on wall street, speaking of gambling. we'll be right back. ♪ can't read my, no, he can't read my poker face. ♪ can't read my, can't read my -- ♪ no, he can't read my poker face ♪ ards wasn't good. i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. between the high interest, the fees... i felt trapped. debt, debt, debt. so i broke up with my credit card debt and consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. i finally feel like a grown-up. break up with bad credit card debt. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up t

>> i think that is what powell means when he says his goal is softish landing. that is not a soft landing but a mild recession. charles: right. >> if they could that is what they look to do. charles: give your thoughts on the piece in bloomberg last week. economist campbell harvey, credited with sort of tying in inverted yield curves and how they serve as sort of a harbinger of impending recessions. it has worked eight out of eight times since he come up with this theory. he says it won't work this time, this time is different. is there a chance in your mind we can skirt recession? >> there is a chance. it is small. from professor harvey's point of view there are two key reasons why we might skirt it this time. the first one is that people learn and react. that is one of the reasons that technical analysis tends to work until everyone is aware of it and then it doesn't work so well. charles: right. >> the other one he says employment is so strong and that's the one place where i guess i differ from him because, yes, it is so strong and the fed is determined that

if they think powell and company could slam the market again, that could be a fatal flaw, jay powell and the fed, they're in a pick k on board, lance roberts, david nicholas, peter thiel. calling president biden's first economic speech later on this hour. face it will be more of a political speech focused on the maga crowd and fear-mongering. i will ask house majority whip tom emmer for his solutions from republicans. rebecca walser, absolute proof stim mys sparked runaway inflation. my take on experts and their eagan suppose. and that and much more on "making money." ♪. charles: here is dilemma for investors. you know the old saying don't fight the fed. there is another one, don't fight the trend. there is growing dilemma for jay powell and company. don't fight history, versus don't fight the data. yesterday the bank of canada raised rates 25 basis.and then they paused. yeah, the four-letter word, paused. to sort of assess whether they raised rates enough to get inflation back to their target. this is where they stand right now, inflation 6.3%. they paused at 4 1/2%. looks very mu

if i was chairman powell, i would do 50 just to knock down the market a little bit. you have a huge loosening of financial conditions that is unjustified. i think they will do 25 and another 25 then we see where they go. the big risk for the markets and everything going on with the rally, is that pause you get to 4% on inflation that first 5.5% lower from 9.5% to 4% is the easy part you get stuck at 4% and have to hike later in the year no pricing for that. the rates mark is rising in cuts later this year. i don't know that answer that is another big risk >> of course, the fed is warning against the scenario for inflation is sticky. they don't declare victory too soon we will see how that goes. michael and sylvia, thank you very much. i appreciate it. >>> coming up, the fortune of the richest person in asia is down $28 billion this month after a report by short seller hindenberg we will have that next. >>> and president biden and house speaker kevin mccarthy will get together this week to talking about the debt ceiling we will talk to jared bernstein about that issue

chris powell. >> i'm heidi powell. >> reporter: a duo unmatched in the fitness world. but while chris was inspiring people with what seemed like relentless positivity off screen his journey took a turn for the worse. >> i have been working out regularly since i was 14, i had to peel myself off the couch to go on a walk, you know something's wrong in my life. >> take us think the last seven years. >> we were going through difficult times. i literally started to shut down. i couldn't think straight. i started withdrawing from life. >> reporter: that mental health battle was especially amplified as his ten-year marriage fell apart in the public eye. >> what's really scary is that the side of me that was starting to come out was the worst version of me and it was the worst version of me for heidi and it was the worse version of me for my kids. i needed some help. >> reporter: desperate for a solution, chris saw six therapists. >> i got up to use the restroom and i looked down at her note pad, she wrote anxiety disorder and circled it. i thought, wow, okay, there's a real i

you know, jay powell went on 60 minutes said we are printing money, control p. our money supply is 200% bigger than it was 15 years ago. >> yeah. listen. i hear you. i do believe gold has probably one of the best risk/rewards out there. i feel like it need as spark needs a spark, to retrace some old highs. happy new year, my friend. >> thank you, charles. charles: coming up my takeaway on the entire nation sending prayers to the buffalo bills player damar hamlin when we come back. charles: you know, we all know it's well documented and it's growing worse, it permeates all facets of our life including economic policy. most people, i think, in this country had thrown up their hands for any hopes we could figure it out, bracing for the inevitable conclusion of a house divided. but i've got to tell you something, last night when damar hamlin suffered cardiac arrest during the game between the bills and bengals, to me, something amazing happened. gut-wrenching scene, and then we see the anguish on all of the players' faces, and at that moment we forgot we were suppos

because a market that's rallying too far too fast will upset jay powell. we saw that on the eve of the jackson hole speech. the market had a little bit of a run-up into maybe a benign powell. he was anything, but. he came at it really hard and said there be a whole lot of pain. meanwhile, we do see where households are sort of moving to a more cautious posture, so the american public is sort of hunkering down for things to get slower. the fed has got to see this , right? they got to see the numbers. what's going to win out? the data the fed promised they would use as a guide, or the notion that jay powell has promised to be volcker 2.0? >> you know, in truth at this point, i don't know. i mean, since that speech you eluded to, the inflation numbers have gotten a lot better and i've got to say it's mysterious the way the growth numbers are holding up with quite frankly, a lot of very good recession indicators triggering like beginning in the third quarter last year. clearly, this is a different cycle and i think some of it has to do just with that really su

jerome powell did lay it out. we'll see if he gives us that kind of clear expectation for 2023 as well. obviously it's a huge issue where interest rates go from here. jamie cox, thank you so much. great to see you this morning. >> thank you. jackie: let's get to the morning mover, it's tesla. shares are down this morning after the electric vehicle maker came up short for its 2022 delivery target. tesla delivering 1.31 million vehicles last year, up roughly 40% from 2021 but missing wall street's expectations of 1.34 million deliveries for the year. tesla stock closing down 65% in 2022. that's its biggest ever annual decline and you can see premarket its is down 2.6%. coming up, the clock is ticking for house minority leader kevin mccarthy as he looks to secure enough votes to become speaker of the house today. former georgia congressman doug collins weighs in next. ♪ - [announcer] payroll takes too long. at least it used to. now, there's roll, the app that makes payroll as easy as sending a text. you. you're sli

you think powell will acknowledge that we are having slowing growth or inflation? will it continue to be that thing of look on the labor market is tight. we need to keep at this and keep going because inflation is sticky? >> i think the base case for investors is that powell will very much stick to the script and say it is not run yet. yes, inflation may be coming down but there is still a long way to go. when you look at what the fed is using, thinking about not just headline inflation but really thinking about the services inflation which is starting to prove more sticky and the fed knows it needs to bring that down as well in order to get those inflation expectations back to the 2% range over the long-term that it is aiming for. powell's tone should be pretty firm on more to do just because he does not want the market to continue to pray cindy's interest rate cuts for the second half of this year. he wants the market to believe that the fed is determined to keep interest rates higher for longer in order to tap inflation. >> thank you very much, paul. helping us