who is actually on the fomc? >> the u.s. central bank consists of a board of governors in washington, seven governors. those are nominated by the president and confirmed by the senate and we serve terms that are not synced up with the election cycle. so we're independent. there are also 12 reserve banks around the country which have a degree of independence, so, each reserve bank is led by a president who works there full-time, all 12 of them sit on the fomc. so, that's 19 people sit on the fomc, so that's quite a large committee of which 12 vote in any given year. the reserve bank presidents vote on a rotating bases except new york. >> when you vote, do you vote at the beginning of an fomc meeting and have discussions afterwards or wait until the very end and then you vote? >> no, we vote at the end. the fomc meeting process takes more than a full week. i'm talking to all of the participants, all 18 other ones, and the staff has sent around memos and something called the teal book, which is the staff's assessment of the eco

, who is on the fomc? chair powell: it consists of a board of governors in washington. there are seven governors nominated by the president and confirmed by the senate, and we serve terms that are not synced up with the election cycles. we are independent. there are also 12 reserve banks around the country which have a degree of independence. each reserve bank is led by a president who works there full-time. all 12 of them sit on the fomc. this is 19 people. it is quite a large committee, of which, 12 vote in any given year. the reserve bank presidents vote on a rotating basis except for the new york president who votes every year. david: do you vote at the beginning of the meeting and then have discussions afterwards? or do you wait until the very end and then vote? chair powell: we vote at the end. the fomc meeting process takes more than a full week. i am talking to all of the 18 other participants, and staff has sent around memos and there is something called the teal book which is the staff's assessme

, who is on the fomc? chair powell: it consists of a board of governors in washington. there are seven governors nominated by the president and confirmed by the senate, and we serve terms that are not synced up with the election cycles. we are independent. there are also 12 reserve banks around the country which have a degree of independence. each reserve bank is led by a president who works there full-time. all 12 of them sit on the fomc. this is 19 people. it is quite a large committee, of which, 12 votes in any given year. the reserve bank resident vote -- presidents vote on a rotating basis except for the new york president who votes every year. david: do you vote at the beginning of the meeting and then have discussions afterwards? or do you wait until the very end and then vote? chair powell: we vote at the end. the fomc meeting process takes more than a full week. i am talking to all of the 18 other participants, and staff has sent around memos and there is something called the teal book which is th

we are blessed with the diversity of perspectives on the fomc with 19 people. one think that unites all of us is a strong commitment to getting inflation down. david: when you want to talk to members of the federal reserve board, do you go to your office or do they come to your office and? chair powell: i like to do both. i like to go birch in on people. david: the fed has been pretty good at avoiding leaks of its decisions. how do you do that because most people in washington are not good at that. chair powell: we have very strict rules around confidentiality, particularly around the written things that we have. the other thing to remember though is we are not trying to hide our decisions from the public. in modern monetary policy, we want the public to understand how we are thinking. if markets really understand how you were thinking and a new piece of data comes in, the market says, you are going to do this and it all happens organically. the market priced in rate increases long before we enacted them. we are not looking to surprise markets with these decisi

, who actually is on the fomc? >> the u.s. central bank consists of a board of governors here in washington there are seven governors. they are nominated by the president and confirmed by the senate, and we serve terms that are not synced up with the election cycle so we're independent there are also 12 reserve banks around the country which have a degree of independence, so each reserve bank is led by a president who works there full time all 12 of them sit on the fomc that's 19 people sit on the fomc it's quite a large committee of which 12 vote in any given year. the reserve bank presidents vote on a rotating basis except new york which votes every year. >> so when you vote, do you vote at the beginning of an fomc meeting and then have discussions afterwards or do you wait until the very end and then you vote >> no, we vote at the end. the fomc meeting process takes more than a full week. i'm talking to all of the participants, all 18 other ones and staff that sent around memos and the teal book, the staff's ass

, who is on the fomc? >> the central banking system there are seven governors nominated by the president and confirmed by the senate and we serve terms that are not synced up with the election cycle so we are independent. there's also 12 reserve banks around the country that have a degree so each reserve bank is led by a president that works there full-time and all 12 of them sat on the fomc so 19 people. it's quite a large committee of which 12 vote in any given year getting of the meeting out of then just kind of have discussions afterwards or do you wait until the very end and then you vote? >> the process takes more than a full week. there's the international economy and we have an extensive discussion about the economy. then we talk around noon on the second day. >> does the chair speak first and say here's what i think or say thanks but let me tell you what i think? >> this is what i do i speak last on the sort of economic go around so everyone else talks about what they think of the economy and in t

all 12 of them sit on the fomc. so that is 19 people sit on the fomc. it is quite a large committee which 12 vote in any given year. reserve presidents rotate basis except new york vote votes for every year. >> do you vote at the beginning of the fomc meeting, have discussions afterward or you wait until the end to vote? >> we vote at the end. the fomc meeting process takes more than a week. i talk to all 19 participants, 18 other ones. staff sends out memos. something called teal book that has monetary policy all of that. we have ex-extensive discussion on the first day of meeting about the economy. everybody talks about. second day we talk about monetary policy. then we vote on monetary policy around noon the second day. >> so does the chairman of the federal reserve board speak first here is what i think or does he wait until the end, thanks for what you think but let me tell you what i think? what do you do? >> different chairs have done it different ways. i tend to do what my immediate predecessor did i think. here is what i do, i speak last on the

david r: when the fomc minutes -- fomc meets, you know how the decision is going to come out before you get together because you have been talking? fortis the meeting change minds in ways you may not have expected before it started? chair powell: it depends on the meeting. i talked to each of the participants at least once and we go through everything. what is your analysis of the economy, monetary policy, the path forward, all of that. in some meetings, i will say some of the time you get into a discussion that suggests you should communicate differently and then we will think about that. we might take a break in the meeting and go off with a smaller group. sometimes, everything plays out as expected. david r: when you are having these meetings, i am assuming someone sweeps the room to make sure there are no bugs? chair powell: all of that. david r: no leaks. chair powell: no. david r: as you look forward for the remainder of this year, your view would be you would be happy if inflation would get down by the end of the year? 2% might be unrealistic, but core inflation is about 4.5%? ch

last fomc press conference, jay powell mentioned inflation 13 times. if they had the press conference today he wouldn't mention it the all. how do you navigate it? what do you tell people how to navigate against this new financial reality, markets can go crazy, go haywire, not based on fundamentals of the companies themselves, or economic backdrop but unelected bureaucrats making these decisions? >> right. that is the biggest risk. without question the biggest risk we have is federal reserve, global central banks. that is the big one. that is why diversification more important than ever. we believe in physical gold and silver in diverse nationca. bonds, six month, one year bond 5% short-term rates. that is the risk though. that is again why so many people are out of markets. if the federal reserve ever goes catty they change their mind we know the game is over, that is the big risk but as investors are job to make money for our clients and pay for retirement somehow. again with proper diversification, following the leaders, we think you can make a lot

manus: fomc is set to raise the benchmark by 25 basis points. jerome powell getting further hikes on the table and optionality is key. let's take a listen to some fed officials and what they have been saying. >> i expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year. >> monetary policy has more work to do. >> a favorite toy five basis point increase at the fomc next meeting. >> hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward. >> expect to continue tightening policy passes meeting. >> the fed will have to maintain rates at high enough levels. >> the policy will need to remains efficiently restrictive for some time. >> now at some point this year, i expect that the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place, just hold them in place to let monetary policy do its work. >> we can and if necessary should adjust our overall policy strategy to keep financial conditions restrictive even as the pace slows. manus: dobson is our executive editor for asia markets. paul, good to see you. the base case today is 25

you can't tell from the fomc statement. he gave a pretty good statement a couple times ago we thought we were in the clear. he dashed all hopes. we'll get to that in a few minutes. which jay powell appears on the podium. on friday we have san francisco fed president mary daly on our air exclusive interview. the first fed official to speak publicly after today's press conference. get ready for that. after the close we also have really big news, folks. we have earnings coming in from meta. i got to tell you something. this is a big, big deal. this is the first mega, not the first megacap this week. formerly known as facebook, very influence stock. i want to give you the setup. this is a stock when they reported earnings in the past, it would move 3%, 4%. take a look the way it moves down, 24% down, 17% up, 25% down. this stock is going to make a real big move. here's theroblem. it has become something like russian roulette. we're not sure wheret wall stret is looking for, the average for the year, wall street thinks they make

fomc minutes come your way thursday may get u.s. gdp another round of jobless on thursday followed by fed speak from president bostic and daily and more fed speak with jefferson,mester, collins and waller on friday. my guests are still with me. it's time now for the rapidfire round, three questions, three quick answers. do we see another 50 basis point hike from the bed in 2023? >> no. >> no. >> no. katie: next question, does the terminal rate get to 5.5%? >> likely. >> no. >> likely. final question, does junk or investment grade outperform this year? >> investment grade. >> investment grade. >> i'm going to go with junk area katie: we really appreciate it, my thanks to my guests. a great discussion in the s&p 500 fell .9% to end of the week. from new york, that does it from us, this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first. these days, our households depend on the internet mo

meantime, fomc minutes could shake things up. ♪ anna:

rubenstein: when the fomc meets as it does regularly, eight times a year. you pretty much know how the decision is going to come out before you get together because you've been talking to each other or does the meeting of fomc change minds in ways you might not have expected before the meeting started? chair powell: it depends on the meeting. i talk to each of the 18 other participants at least once and we go through everything. what's your analysis of the economy, everything with monetary policy, are we thinking about the path forward and all of that? so in some meetings, i will say some of the times you get into a discussion at the meeting which suggests that maybe you should communicate differently and then we'll think about that and we might actually take a break in the middle of the meeting and then go off with a smaller group and think about that and come back and make changes. sometimes, though, everything plays out as expected. mr. rubenstein: and when you're having these meetings, i assume somebody sweeps the room to make sure there's no bugs. chai

this is after we had to hawks on the fomc speaking to bloomberg yesterday saying that expectations of steeper u.s. rate hikes are definitely growing. we heard from them. the fight against inflation is not done yet. we heard from isabel schnabel, one of the most powerful executive board members on the ecb, also in charge of markets saying markets are also underestimating the fight against inflation. the picture overall for equity indices as they are starting to open is one of risk off. yesterday, it was one of risk on. very interesting analysis from mark cudmore that it is not because we are moving yield equities that do the same thing. you have to think about why yields are moving to see whether equities go up and down. this has changed in the last couple of weeks. we will look at british pound. we seem to be closer to a deal on the protocol. that is not a hundred percent deal but we have a team on the ground trying to get that for us. the other stories are commodities. iron ore up a little and a bit of pressure on oil after inventories were better-than-expected. cross asset, we look

everybody standing around the world ready to give us their piece of the action on the fomc minutes. president biden's comments on russia after suspending the nuclear treaty. so to those minutes and the fed hikes more of them on the horizon and the almost all official agree to slow the pace of tightening. let's get to valerie sites out valerie. good to have you with me this morning. the key takeaway. they obviously are more focused on inflation rather than disinflation. no irony there. and three weeks. yeah, that's right. the minutes actually didn't even mention the word disinflation, which i found surprising. but let me take you back to the top three points for me. a few wanted a 50 bip hike. that that that means that mester and bullard didn't find many friends among the fomc council pushing for a 50 basis point. they also didn't mention a pause. and as you mentioned, ms.. the minutes didn't even mention the word disinflation. there was more of an emphasis on maintaining the restrictive stance for longer. and then lastly, they really focus on the upside risk to inflation. remember,

into question the fomc's commitment to stabilizing inflation at any level because it might lead people to suspect the target could be changed opportunistically in the future. kathleen: this is the classic defense for sticking with 2%. if you start moving away, they are not serious about it, you lose credibility, maybe lose the power of that decision. that is the kind of response people give. mr. jefferson did say maybe services will start easing up and that will provide some relief. that's the big bugaboo. labor market type, they are hard to bring down. haidi: you had the top boj official in new york city insisting the central bank has not hit its 2% targets. kathleen: let's talk about who it was who spoke today at the center on japanese business and economy at the columbia business school. he was giving some reflections on various aspects of the economy, on inflation, boj policy. he's one of the outgoing deputy governors, however, he was very focused on the 2% target. he said we haven't met yet, so i asked him if you look at the chart like this, if you look at your headline inflation,

into question the fomc's commitment to stabilizing inflation at any level. because it might lead people to suspect that the target could be changed opportunistically in the future. simone: global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm simone foxman, this is bloomberg. dani: they very much. coming up, erste bank's cfo will speak to us on earnings at the austrian lender. we will also discuss exposure to russia, eastern europe, and much more. that interview is next, on bloomberg. ♪ dani: some breaking news coming through on santander for their investor day. they are implementing a 921 million euros share buyback. they are having a final dividend of just under six euros, 5.95, after very strong earnings. we will speak with santander chairman ana botin at about 3:00 p.m. u.k. time. manus: let's stick with those themes on buybacks. erste bank beat the estimates, shares have rallied 15% since the end of the third quarter. the credit risk for eastern european mark

the fomc meeting is finally here. another downshift on in the pace of rate hikes to 25 basis widely expected. it is all about jay powell's opening statement in the press conference. joining us is valerie tytel. the decision guide to the fed, what are you watching today? >> to key thing off the bat is in the third paragraph of the opening statement, any ongoing increases in the fed funds rate. this is the statement from december. it seems a little stale now, especially in light of the wage inflation moderation, and the moderation in core inflation. so some evolution is likely. possibly acknowledging the gap between the fed funds rate and the peak has shrunk. but there is belief that he will push back yet again on these cuts. perhaps some addition in this opening statement that he intends to leave the policy rate at sufficiently restrictive levels for an extended period of time. that is another addition the markets could react to in the opening statement. francine: hawkish or dovish surprises, water markets betting? >>

it was his first speech, and in his first speech since the latest set of fomc into jobs data, jerome powell told bloomberg, inflation may slow significantly this year but the road will be bumpy. >> this process is likely to take quite a bit of time. it's not we don't think going to be smooth, it's probably going to be bumpy. so we think we will need to do further rate increases. and we will need to hold policy at a restrictive level for a period of time. manus: let's get to valerie tytel, she's with us on this fed watch. there you go. the issue is whether he wasn't hawkish enough, didn't keep his optionality alive for 50 basis points in february, what is your take? >> it showed as yet again this is not the hawkish powell we saw last summer at jackson hole we were all appearing is going to come back. equities like that, ending on a good footing. but the first question is on the jobs report saying, would you have done something differently if you atone about friday's data? he said now, we are comfortable about the guidance we gave, and we are likely to see softness in the cycle that is

that will probably play out a little bit closer to the fomc meeting. the fed will not ease on the brakes here. you have fed speakers coming in the next few days will sound pretty hawkish. they want the market to be absolutely clear, there is more work to do and no chance of a rate cut coming this year. some are suggesting the fed will cut rates in the first quarter of next year. the fed will probably push back on that as well. they don't want anybody thinking about lowering rates when is to have so much more to do on the outside. moving things along, having a look at what has been making first ward headlines, let's get to vonnie quinn in new york. >> thank you. let's start with the bank of japan whose outlook fell for the first time since january. industrial production shrank 4.6% from december. a challenge as he takes over at the doj. the u.k. and european union have reached a new deal on northern ireland's trading arrangements. it paves the way for normal relations potentially more than half a decade after bridges voted for brexit. the windsor framew

if we were going to get a big piece of data in the middle of an fomc meeting, as it often happens, it will help me to know with the night before. >> markets, after your speech last week, the markets assumed that there would probably be another 25 basis point increase in your next fomc meeting. was that a bad assumption by the markets? [laughter] >> again, what we said at the meeting was that we believe that we anticipate, is what we said, ongoing rate increases will be appropriate. the reason is we are trying to achieve a stance of policy that is sufficiently restrictive, to bring inflation down to 2%. we do not think we have achieved that yet. we said that. now, you see the labor market report. again, financial conditions are more well aligned with that they were before. >> the assumption, when you made the speech, probably the fed might consider decreasing rates by the end of this year. the markets no longer assume that. do you think the markets are wrong? >> well. so, let me say, all of these numbers that we are throwing around our conditional on incoming data and what happens. we

if you look at the fomc projections and their goal of 2.5%, there is the thought that maybe that's where the neutral rate is now. there is concern that the fed discontinued it because of the pandemic it is -- but if it is higher, maybe conditions are not as tight as they are. that's what we are focusing on to see how high they will ultimately go and how long they will hold at that peak rate. katie: if 5% terminal rate is quaint, so too is the fact that a few weeks ago we had the markets pricing in we were going to get half a percentage point of rate hikes in the back half of this year. russ certo wrote that today's data only underscores how far powell has to go -- what are you thinking about potential loosening? are rate cuts what we should be talking about this year? >> we don't think so. when we thought the bond market was getting ahead of itself and pricing in the 50 basis points of cuts into this year, simply because none of the data would have been bad enough on the growth side were low enough on the inflation side to sue work and easing of policy. we still have about 15 basis point

we are waiting on minutes from the last fomc meeting. i am here with gina martin adams and we want a quick look at markets before these minutes. as you can see, some gift back from yesterday. a downdraft yesterday, reverse and slightly today. but there is trepidation before the minutes. the s&p 500 of 0.3%. nasdaq of 0.5%. let's get straight to michael mckee live from the federal reserve. michael: at our february 1 meeting, federal reserve officials

that's what the bond market says fomc is 12 people. the bond market is more than 12 million people and that's one of the reasons i tend to spend a lot of time talking to the bond market guys at this point. you see the dollar up right here and pretty modest reaction on the s&p. >> david, before this whole rate tightening cycle began, i remember you specifically saying that traditionally, typically the fed starts too late, goes too high and stays too long. i assume that you would stick by that statement and say that's exactly what in your view the fed is doing now >> exactly they say they acknowledge the long lags by which monetary policy affects the economy but with inflation coming down, with consumption special with industrial production falling, they are raising rates that's waiting too long. and on inflation, inflation is not going to get going again i get it that energy prices could pick up in january okay but by the middle of this year, rent instead of a headwind will be a tail wind, pushing inflation down so i think at the middle

haidi: the minutes of the fomc really clearly flagging more rate hikes ahead. what scale are we talking about the? ? kathleen: 25 or 50. all fed officials agree that more rate hikes will be needed. look at this. the restrictive policy stance would have to be maintained until the numbers coming in give us confidence inflation is coming down on its way to 2% and that's going to take a while. meanwhile, there are only two of the fed officials who want to go back to 50 basis point rate kites. everyone else wanted to stick with the 2% reading. john williams speaking in the last couple of hours, saying that it's going to take time. it's their number one commitment. they are going to get there. but just pointing out that this is something that doesn't happen overnight. mark is more says they are looking for three 25 basis point rate hikes at the next three meetings and that will get them up to 5.25%. so i think the market is in step with the fed. to fed officials are still hoping for 50 and certainly didn't get it at the last meeting. haidi: kathleen hays with a look

today the fomc raised the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate to obtain a stance of monetary policy -- monetary policy that is sufficient to return inflation to 2%. we are continuing the process of reducing the size of our balance sheet. restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive stance for some time. host: that is the chair from yesterday. what is magic about the 2% figure? guest: the fed set a target about a decade ago, 2% inflation. they do not want inflation to be more than 2% or less than 2%. for a long time after the financial crisis of 2008 inflation was running below that target. they did not expect that it would jump so much above that, and they are trying to get back to 2%. why is to present important? what the fed is looking for is a stable rate that everyone can plan around. if you are a business and you want to know how much you should expect to be able to increase your prices next year, if you are a worker you want to know how much you

the fomc, i'm interested about the summary of economic projections, the dot plot is going to entail. that's where the market pricing has changed so much and has a lot of room for repricing further. it's about whether the neutral dots and where the 2024 dots are. alix: if we start to see a higher terminal rate from the fed and we get to 5.3% or even more, what is the ecb do with that? doesn't the fed have to keep going? >> i think there is a limit as to how far the ecb will be able to match the fed. that's interesting when it comes into fx currency dynamics. that's why the ecb is probably more inclined rather than jacking up rates now to match the fed, they will be more inclined to using forward guidance for next year's interest rate policies may be the year after that to try to redress the balance between them and the fed. the fed frankly i think they're running policy which is too dovish at the moment which is allowing inflation risks to build. i really question whether they will be able to cut rates at all next year perhaps they will need to be barking on another heart -- hiking cy

the long end of the curve, so we are seeing inflation expectations rise dramatically since the last fomc meeting. as inflation expectations rise, you see the long end of the curve get sticky in the higher yield portion, so i would be careful about the longer end and in corporate credit. i think spreads are too tight given where we are in the economic cycle and stress that has occurred in investment grade and high yield. kailey: thank you. great to see you. still ahead, a showdown between microsoft and e.u. antitrust watchdogs. we will look at the challenges to the microsoft takeover of activision. this is bloomberg. ♪ get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a new tool in the chase mobile® app. use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today... could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way wealth plan can help get you there. j.p. morgan wealth management. go. go brain. no, not that one. go this one. go optimizing data. go efficiency. go results. emerson's plant

this is about the federal reserve the line above the other fomc members talking about need to curtail inflation. we get a little more bearishness. we see the fix picking up so clearly volatility in the air. as we see the federal reserve is trying to talk up more focus on inflation perhaps more hikes. crypto has been on the downside. we are holding onto our gains but it is at 22,950. ed: the biggest read from a standpoint perspective alphabet down. worries about the accuracy of video the company put out getting a false reading or a false answer to a question posed through ai. the upside bucking the trend even though we are down broadly netflix up 1% as it expands the password sharing initiatives. tesla up 2.3%. highest number since november. and what we might expect and then uber up 5.5%. seems to be ridesharing is in good health at least for uber. everyone wants to hear about disney. shares really accelerating their gains. not necessarily on the beat on the bottom line but what they had to say about going forward. targeting 5.5 billion dollars in cost reductions. cutting 7000 jobs but

look more on the speakers today, which are more to the center and more reflecting the consensus in the fomc. but the focus right now is on higher fed rates. and that is supporting the u.s. dollar. dani: it is supporting dollar. what happens though, i guess it is the no landing scenario, by that i mean we don't go into recession but inflation is sticky. maybe we settle in a range of four to 5% for some time. if that is where we are headed, what happens in that environment? esther: i still believe this would be a u.s. dollar positive environment. we've seen there is a high credibility effect. even when the market is still considering rate cuts later out, that is based on the expectation inflation is coming down, which we can still see in market inflation expectations. however as long as inflation is not coming down, u.s. dollar will benefit. of course, the fed has a dual mandate. this no landing scenario also implies this will not be a concern because the economy will remain strong, inflation will keep overheating and the u.s. labor market will remain strong, which means we might have to go m

account that this trend transfers into the service inflation and that is one of the readings from the fomc meetings last week. the dangerous part of that is once this recorded wage price is informed, it is getting extremely difficult to bring it down because it will be more exposed to the job market and we all know how hot it is and how hard it is to cool it is to cool it down at this stage. i see more dangers ahead and the danger is much odder than we expected in early february. haidi: you are not that much more optimistic when it comes to china. does that mean you are not expecting more progrowth catalysts to come from the party congress? hebe: don't get me wrong, i do expect something will be coming this weekend. the more likely would be for the domestic consumption boost and that is what the presidency has promised. but let's focus -- in other words, the resolute sectors would only contribute about 20% of that and that is not the healthy pattern and not the chinese economy that has benefit the rest of the world. the other part is investors had been very optimistic what you had hoped to

the fomc raised our policy interest rates. ongoing increases will be appropriate. in addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. this door -- price to but will require a restrictive stance for some time. i will have more to say about today's monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments. the u.s. economy slowed significantly last year with real gdp rising at a low trend pace of 100%. consumer spending is expanding at a reduced pace. activity in the housing sector continues to weaken. largely reflect entire mortgage rates. higher interest rates as low rapid growth appeared to be waiting on business investment. the labor market remains extremely tight with job vacancies and still very high end wage growth elevated. job gains have been robust with employment rising by an average of 247,000 jobs over the last three months. although the pace of job gains has slowed they have shown some size -- signs of easing. labor demand exceeds the supply of available workers. inflation remains well above ou

on wednesday, we will get the minutes from the latest fomc meeting. on thursday, we get the turkey rate decision. friday marks when you're on as we mentioned from the start of russia's invasion of ukraine. we will have plenty of coverage in the run up. do watch out for wednesday. pivoting to a different story, we are hearing about the bidding war for manchester united and is eating up -- heating up. britain's richest man has submitted an offer to acquire the english football club. let's bring in bloomberg simone oxman in qatar's capital to heart. what do we know and what details do we have about the royal family pushing and driving this it? simone: he keeps a low international profile, but he happens to be the son of the former prime minister of qatar up until 2013, who is best known by his three initials h bj. also the former head of the sovereign wealth phone -- fund and a well-known investor. he has had a pretty extensive experience being on the boards of both qatari companies, many of which have big large investments buying a sovereign wealth fund

if the aussie's went for the plural, bostic, who doesn't vote on the fomc, supercharged the narrative of higher for longer, and guess what, the swaps market woke up, hurrah, we are pricing five and a quarter for the first time in a while. >> it's fascinating the way a non-voter like bostic could make such an impression. maybe it made him more for your, the venue made him more freer then powell seemed to be last week, and he was very concerned to try and guide his way towards a soft landing. and leave opene perhaps too much in the way of optionality, so bostic really nailed people were saying with the fed needed to do, which is from in the market it is out of alignment with where the fed thinks it is going to have to go. really wasn't that much in the substance of bostic's outlook that didn't gel with what the fed and powell has been saying for a long time, that they need to hold rates for longer, but yeah, it really hit the market sideways. got those bets back up. and you would think it would be hard for anything other than a confirmation of that bias from jerome powell, when he speak

wednesday, the latest from the fomc meeting. and thursday, the u.s. gdp and jobless claims. friday marks one year on from russia's invasion of ukraine. ok. this is how risk looks this monday morning. we are not exactly worrying --roaring risk on. we are at an inflection point of whether the fed will have to slam the brakes hard according to larry summers. the dollar is a flat and the bloomberg commodity index is down even though goldman sachs holds faith in commodities. ♪ when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when

fed watching with fomc minutes released on wednesday. core pce index landing on friday that will have markets moving one way or the other. jordan kimmel, value portfolio manager, great to see you, jordan. i looked at your notes, what i'm seeing now the market is in a rip tide so how do you play it? >> you play it with a lot of discipline. ash, great to be with you. you play with a lot of discipline. you don't need to react with news bit, every scratch of the nose by the fed. what you really need to do, i focus on high quality, high cash flow and the most trustworthy companies in america and if you, if you lead with the best companies and you really stick with the discipline on how have a way to fellterring through companies, those are the only ones in my portfolio. i don't -- stock market, i'm not a fan, a rah-rah. in fact in the best of times, ash, you know only 1% of public companies can get through my screens. so i think you do it with a diversified, healthy, strong portfolio and, mind your business. ashley: let's look at some of the

today, the fomc raised policy interest rate by 25 basis points . we continue to anticipate ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to a stain -- attain a stance of monetary policy sufficiently restricted to return to 2% over time. in addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. her -- restoring price stability will likely have us remaining stands for quite some time. i will have more to say after brief economic develop its. the u.s. economy slowed significantly last year with real gdp rising at a below trend pace of 1%. recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production this quarter. consumer spending appears to be expanding at a subdued pace in part reflecting tighter financial conditions over the past year. activity in the housing sector continues to weaken, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. higher interest rates and slower output growth appear to be weighing on business-fixed investments. despite this slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extreme he tight

turns out they did not have a lot of friends in the fomc about that. there was not even a mention of the word of disinflation, which powell used ad nausea him in that q&a. the emphasis instead was on maintaining this restrictive policy stands for longer. they also discuss the upside risk to the inflation outlook remaining key to policy. there was no discussion about the downside risk to the inflation outlook. going into these minutes, we had a string of soft cpi print but they are still focusing on the upside risk. these two taken together might suggest there is room for those dots to shift higher. there rate forecast. but i want to show in the next chart what we have priced in february. this month alone has seen a 50 basis point rise in the fed terminal rate. this is pricing for fed funds futures, shifted 50 basis points higher in february to nearly 5.4 percent. one could assume the market is already pricing a shift higher in the dots we get on march 22. tom: valerie tytel breaking down the fed minutes. for more, let's bring in kristine aquino,. . let

expectation is being pushed towards the fed, yes, you better deliver for us, i think that is where powell and fomc as a whole will that is what you will find the legacy, the next two months will define their legacy i think. maria: two items on the agenda, in front of you, to get your reaction number one, house ways and means speaker kevin mccarthy says he cease opportunity to come to agreement on debt ceiling we're going up against june deadline said very good meeting with president, yesterday, he reiterated the stance that there is no there is no threat of a default but that there is a massive threat with this overspending number two, this unwind of the fed balance sheet what he talked about this a number of times the fed going to take a trillion dollars out of liquidity, because they are unwinding that balance sheet doesn't that create a market disruption this year? your thoughts. >> first of all, on the debt ceiling i think, you know, they have to get this spending under control back to some kind of an agreement, you can't go from 4 1/2 trillion spending before the pandemic, to 6 over 6 trillio

alix: coming up, fomc rate decision. watching pals remarks. will they fix the gap between the fed and the markets? yelena sulyatyeva is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> sometimes, it's just the passing of these events, people realize there wasn't any new information in there that should change my view of stocks, which should be based on the following. earnings are disappointing everywhere. this is one of the worst streaks in earnings we have seen in quite a while. people are saying it is better than fear. that is like a tornado ripping through your house and you saying, oh, it only knocked out the bedroom. earnings are bad and you need to be honest about that. alix: that was mike wilson of morgan stanley speaking earlier. the fed is getting ready to deliver its rate decision later today. our question of the day is, can powell close the gap between the fed and the markets? joining us now is yelena sulyatyeva, a senior economist over at bnp part of us. can he do it? yelena: he will try it he will deliver a hawkish downshift today and try to pe