next up, germany. -- germany. we will break that down coming up next. ♪ ♪ caroline: france's economy stagnated in the second quarter. we get an update on germany now. china'sday slide after rate rose for the first time. others agreed and to settle investment lawsuits stemming from the rigging scandal. ♪ welcome to "countdown" i'm caroline hyde and that's reevaluate what we have seen on the economic data. the french economy, we know, has stagnated. the euro barely reacted from the news, but it seems as though we in still seeing the minister france saying they can get 1% of growth for 2015. it will be hard given that they faltered in the second quarter. germany, again, a miss. it is still growth, but the expectations were for more. they were expecting to see futures opening up now, and it was start to trade on the back of this worse than had been expected. see for growth any second quarter. actually, the first quarter was revised. on a quarter by quarter, it is slower than had been anticipated. here is china's

they said this morning that have resumed services, all passenger service from germany or austria to germany. is slowing line down. they have disruptions because of refugees, migrants walking on the track. i took a lot of trained last week, disruptions all across germany because they self the loudspeaker people are walking on the tracks. crisis proportions and the numbers themselves do not quite make sense. austria said they expect another 20,000, the estimate was 10,000 today. if these were micro/refugees, if their goal is to go to germany, that will create a humanitarian situation. a little bit away from munich. numbers for 12,000 arriving in munich on saturday. all across germany, they are putting up makeshift housing and to convert sports hall into temporary housing for refugees. they are getting some support. the announcement by thomas de maiziere. it premiere of hungry said was a move in the right direction. here's what the austrian prime minister said yesterday. he said we will continue to court with a closely with germany to achieve an orderly situation. the refugees should not be th

germany, everybody loves germany. look how they did a coalition. it obviously stops the most extreme of any dominant party, generally speaking. >> we are getting breaking news. we had a great exclusive interview saying that the u.s. must accept a stronger u.s. dollar. >> r mr.aja -- mr . rajan. >> i'm surprised. >> borrowing in dollars is like russian roulette. >> that's more sensible. if there's something behind that, the finance minister is going to do more to open up -- >> coming up, isn't it? >> just before here, i was speaking to the indian finance minister. i think it is a big moment for them. they've traveled on so much positive virtuous momentum with the oil price collapse and the love affair on modi. this budget is big. >> what he seems to say is the u.s. have to resign themselves to a stronger u.s. dollar. >> that's for the u.s. treasury and the fed to decide. as i said earlier -- >> your prediction? >> i'll stick my neck out and say the dollar is not going to be higher than estimated. >> first rate hike? >> linked to this issue? it might

run.ey are often on the germany has a penalty. him tell them,rd germany has a penalty. trevor: not what you want to seemed toagain, non have the same problems with benson there with the helmet coming off. >> not a big surprise. trevor: i think, because of lease running the fourth leg for france, the only chance for great britain, who doesn't have a time penalty, or australia, they've got to get a lead. i know what you are going to say, but swim on your own, bike on your on, but i am not surprised to see it, and i'm not saying it is going to work because it is only one mile. how much of a gap can she create? >> look at that gap, wow. it will be probably 12 seconds, 13 seconds, to australia, and maybe 50 seconds back behind the lead. tovor: robisch is about touch, but that penalty is good to be very, very costly for germany. great britain is away. they will be first in the water as we pass the earmarked here. robischon did the job, there, just trying to narrow the second. trevor: ryan bailey from australia has the job here. that is the gap. buckingham and those two pursue

germany has a high savings rate, you can see it in china. constrained domestically and on the tradable side by demand. in the united states, or we are closer to hitting our short-run productive potential, it is everywhere. everywhere, it is about balance sheet of adjustment. blows across the income statement. combining that statement with the need to stop investing. and emerging markets don't seem to clear their balance sheets of bad will as quickly as we do. will that lead to a protracted new mediocre? prof. spence: that is true in a lot of countries. example.uld be a good it is true in europe to some extent. japan was famous for not clearing its balance sheet. it is a ubiquitous problem. the united states is an outlier with the speed to which we respond. exceptionalismn -- the idea that there is something different about ourica that we clear markets and have a launch in progress. you see an american technological progress? prof. spence: absolutely. i think that the protect his productivity increase in potential in this wave of digital tech

a majority goes to germany. they could make that argument, if you do not bail out greece, you do not get paid back germany. >> obviously, that is a big concern, if greece default people lose money. but their armor cards -- more cards to play. if you default on a bank, then you start to get a contagion effect. germany does not want to lose the money it has lent, but it could take the hit. ultimately, this will be a political decision. it won't be about the money, it will be about merkel and other leaders saying, do we want to take a move that would peel back the project that they have been working on so long? i would guess the answer is no. but ultimately, it is about politics. alix: and now this other chart. this is 2012. this is all over and mainstream media, 350 mentioned in may alone. , a chiefined by carl u.s. economist. and michael. your thoughts go back and forth, can germany take the hit, i'm thinking greece has the power. do you guys think -- what do you guys think? >> it is germany's benefit in the long

it is a nonstarter in germany. all it really does is rhetorically raise the temperature little bit and make any sort of workable, rational compromise more difficult. >> he is also backing off of the berlin mandated austerity. he is talking about raising minimum wages. raising the income tax threshold. these are just as injurious, right? >> again, they are non-starters. that is why this meeting is so crucial on wednesday. we are going to see who blinks first. greece has said that they are going to leave the veil program. they said that through the campaign, after the campaign and they are saying it this week. they are leaving the support package that will put them at the mercy of the markets. we will see whether or not there is any sort of effort to have any sort of bridge financing, which is what greece wants. it is not just the german view, it is the belgian view there seems to be consensus that they should not leave the bailout program. >> it looks like a game of who is going to blink first. you mentioned that th

jones: all of the young people throughout europe though to germany because germany has jobs, and this is the argument in germany, and it in somehow affects greece. they are very worried about their ability to pay for their long-term social security, and that is why they want to continue to have this. hans: i think you can also draw a line between this and germany and the u.k. and how you manage the immigrant story. both need to manage a youthful immigration story to keep driving the economy. jonathan: gents, we have to leave it there. i am sure hans nichols will make a cameo appearance later on today, manufacturing pmi coming out with germany. april in eric reading on german inflation. look out for that today. good luck. ♪ . guy: blame game. blaming each other as the payments low. francine: new figures show china factory orders stabilizing. further measures to clean up local finances. guy: the fifa scandal continues. more charges and banks linked to the alleged payments. ♪ guy: welcome to "the pulse

the global headwinds are hitting germany heart. -- hitting germany hard. i will stages a rally after yesterday's selling off. we've got brent up when 5%. .5%.ent up risk aversion is there. is always a little bit lazy at this time of mourning. we'll see how vw is opening. this is all about hiring a u.k. stock. comparisons are challenging. -- vw poppingup up .87%. concerns about pollution coming from their diesel cars. deutsche bank fell in u.s. trading. all about whether that evident will be crushed. back to you. jonathan: sit tight for a price on deutsche bank. bracingasia, we were for the reopening of chinese markets. shery ahn and hong kong. good morning. shery: chinese markets come back today after that week long holiday. shanghai composite closed 3% higher. it is less than investors is investors expected. there was a feeling that the government could do more to support the economy. despite of china's rise, we're seeing a mixed picture across asia. moving moreg is than 8%. there could be some -- more than 1%. there could be some moving. in august.fell t

germany needs to agree -- germany won't agree to a debt cut for greece. let's bring back in daniele antonucci. this is clearly making the german position so clear. debt relief, dream on. daniele: to come back to your point about trust, this is also the biggest deficit, i think. it may make quite an effort. it remains to be seen where that happens. if it does, we might be looking for those that re-profiling extensions that we talk about, but a haircut is not in the cards just yet. manus: i think its interesting that she says the timeout decision is with greece. what is your base scenario? will they stay? what is your call on grexit? daniele: we haven't really changed our view. the situation remains quite uncertain. we suspect it could take a year year and a half before greece risks exiting the eurozone. they might just do it because the numbers are daunting when it comes to the adjustment. it remains to the scene whether it can change so soon, so quickly. manus: great to have your take this morning especially when we have merkel on her feet in the bundesta

a majority goes to germany. they could make that argument, if you do not bail out greece, you do not get paid back germany. >> obviously, that is a big concern, if greece default people lose money. but their armor cards -- more cards to play. if you default on a bank, then you start to get a contagion effect. germany does not want to lose the money it has lent, but it could take the hit. ultimately, this will be a political decision. it won't be about the money, it will be about merkel and other leaders saying, do we want to take a move that would peel back the project that they have been working on so long? i would guess the answer is no. but ultimately, it is about politics. alix: and now this other chart. this is 2012. this is all over and mainstream media, 350 mentioned in may alone. we are joined by carl, a chief u.s. economist. and michael. your thoughts go back and forth, can germany take the hit, i'm thinking greece has the power. do you guys think -- what do you guys think? >> it is germany's benefit in

that is true in germany. when you have everyone employed in price is not moving, that is great news. it is not great news for the rest of the eurozone. >> unemployment in germany dropping to a record low 6.5%. check out the unemployment rate in greece and you will see a different story. "the pulse" is up next. we are here in europe and we are focused on eurozone inflation data, which is released in about an hour. economists forecasting a move to negative for the first time in five years. later today the attention turns to the fed. patients the word. that will be at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. ♪ >> brent below 50. oil hits a new five-year low. >> deflation dilemma. eurozone consumer prices are set to drop into negative territory. >> merkel meets cameron. the german chancellor in london. we are going to speak to one of her key advisors in an exclusive interview. good morning, welcome. you are watching "the pulse." i'm guy jo

the spain germany spread, the italy german spread, all narrowed. some of the biggest moves we have seen in the market. convergence is absolutely clear. let's see what the detail is in terms of what is happening with the greeks. the greeks are going to receive a little more liquidity in terms of emergency funding. 10 points or 11 points coming off the london market today. dividend housing marks & spencer's doing a little better. in london equity markets are opening a little higher despite china seeing a slowdown in manufacturing numbers. let's get to some individual stories we are keeping an eye on. deutsche bank is said to be nearing a 2 billion euros settlement. ubs said $1.5 billion in settlement. that was their record. some companies had 6.5 billion dollars. will they settle with regulators? stock up 1.4 5%. i suppose the issue is to get big litigation out of the way and crackdown on re-organizing your bank. they had a sales number at novartis that was interesting. operating numbers will be ahead of what they were originally. the stock up 2.2 pe

is germany plodding along and every thing is all right? is germany facing a significant problem? is this a manifestation of that? or should we think about this a different way? this is a global story and represent -- germany represents one way of looking at it. george: this is not just a corporate story. i think it does have national implications. because of the role and scope of the german automobile industry. this is a double whammy. in a first-place it has an impact on car sales in germany. maybe there is a shifting around in terms of market share and dissertation. -- distributional. it will have an impact on the industry. also this thing highlighted by german exports over the summer, they have gone into a funk. a lot of that allegedly is down to sales to china. car sales have actually been disappointing over there. effects.wo on the other hand, i always have two. real incomes in germany are rising at the fastest pace in years. wages are up. inflation is on its back. anna: do you think when we lost the germany economy we watch too much on china? insignificant.ot there is actua

germany never said a word. to me, it is a very subtle game. what matters is that things need to be not latent. as long as everyone skirts around the issues of little bit, allows himself or herself more time to deliver, it is fine. the problem that greece creates is the confrontational point of view. it is one thing not to be able to deliver on the targets once you show that you were trying to, and another thing to say, i don't think that's the right approach. by the way, every time greece comes back with the question of the 1953 debt consolation on germany, every time they come back with the war reparations story, that creates additional tension in germany. for me, tone is not important in that conversation. >> can i have a quick 30 seconds on the german gdp number this morning? the problem is, the previous quarter wasn't -- >> germany had one of the worst gdp i've seen anywhere in the world. 1.6 is basically in line with what we have for the annual average. we should see some acceleration towards 2%. q4, i don't think is that much relevant. w

germany once a week or euro. they do better in the currency bloc because they will not have to compete. they will have a lower currency. there is all kinds of reasons why greece should stay and get aid deal. speaking of carl, he is a guest of hours. at bloombergnomist intelligence. also joined by michael. let's talk intelligence. we have the jobs report coming out. we have an ok adp report and a week component of the nonmanufacturing i s m. seeing trend like employment games based on the non-manufacturing i s m components. this is in line with consensus expectations. those are the types of payroll gains you expect to see an economy growing at about 2%. we are just muddling along. joe: will that be enough to get us down to full unemployment rate? >> that will drive the unemployment rate lower. it could push us close to a 5% threshold by september. the head is going to be cognizant of the fact that we have rates at zero and unemployment at the level consistent with full employment in the economy. michael, what kind

we go germany germany, germany, greece, greece, greece. there are other members of the euro. i am assuming they are is limited -- they are as limited as everybody else. >> i never understood angela merkel. she has been the most popular leader -- why she hasn't talked to the german people. if it hits europe, it will hit your jobs, too. i am not a political advisor to germany, but more -- it is pretty simple when you put it that way. your jobs are on the line if europe has a problem. tom: buying time until after the july 5 referendum, coming together for restructuring. jeffrey sachs will join us coming to us from ecuador. his op-ed this weekend was skating. leslie get the tweet that went out. the u.s. has shown -- let's get the tweet that went out. germany has been strenuously resisted. tom: one and the advantages -- one of the advantages of bloomberg, using timing, talking about weeks, days, seconds. we are in the last milliseconds to talk about solutions. many disagree with mr. juncker, that there is a timeline here to come to a successful conclusion. a raging debate as greec

just germany and benelux. daniel: if we had that today we would have a euro at 1.50 germany would not. enjoy the advantage it has. tom: pimco has said the same thing. very quickly, when i look at schaeuble merkel, they need to understand that the academics say greece must have growth. can germany impart nominal growth on greece? daniel: it is difficult in a fixed currency regime. you have one big surplus country -- tom: so they have to go to the drachma and then import growth? daniel: i have been an advocate for a euro-b for the periphery. a controlled euro. greece needs inbound investment. whant can germany do, of course they are not going to do it. build a few also plants. tom: they will have newly valued euros increasing wealth to put in greece. brendan: i take your point. germany has been saying greece needs to get more competitive. the obvious thing to do -- daniel: de valuation is very painful. you cannot ask people to do that. they do not wake up in the morning and say i will take a pay cut. if there ex

of people coming from east to germany to germany to a very healthy labor market. i thinks it makes -- i think it makes sense to ask new young labor to get back in the system. medium long-term it makes perfect sense. the problem is how to manage the transition. manus: managing that transition is going to be one of the biggest challenges. what it you make of the eastern european response, which is different to the west into the u.k.? certainly they don't have the kind of labor market like in germany. eastern european countries are supplier, not labor. they cannot process the same i. -- the same way. cibs: you are the chair of . this year has been a heck of a year for dealmaking. some things are yet to be done. the appleas upset cart and commodities. how do you look at it for dealmaking? vittorio: i think it is a good landscape, first of all because the market is wide open and there is risk appetite. and as we said, it is very much an uncertain landscape but there is plenty of opportunity. as you move, you could be the first mover in a changing environment. manus: wh

there are a lot of infrastructure needs and germany. -- needs in germany. for the last couple years the european fiscal pulse has been negative. it has been moving toward neutral. if you get a positive pulse, and we are seeing a positive pulse be prettyt could interesting as a going to 2016. guy: thank you very much. minutes away from the european equity market open. manus cranny. what you have? manus: a couple different aspects to take on board -- it exit storyf the brigg has trumped the euphoria but we will talk about the yen and yang -- the yin and yang. the majority vote is at 36%, doubled in three months. the better what way you cut it up, we are awake to that risk. lonman, the stock is roaring. i like the way we have written the headline -- ripe for survival. would you actually commit to that rights issue, and goldman sachs is doubling down on parity for christmas. never mind christmas, they are going for parity at goldman sachs. guy: cool. thanks very much. much to look forward to for the rest of day. we have a new show for you, a closing show. the e

is less exposed in germany. jaime: i think mark carney said it kind of quickly in parliament, he said that 3% of chinese growth, if it is curative, you get .1% of u.k. growth. that is borne out in the imf forecast, as well. it is more of the euro as a whole, and we will see how it pans out. caroline: is the u.s. essentially getting too worried about china and the emerging markets? much coldlittle too water being thrown on china, in particular. anne: when i read the stuff from the imf, i thought, my goodness, they must've slashed china since april. have not changed. they're exactly the same. what they have changed is the downgraded u.k. numbers, japanese numbers. and some emerging markets like brazil, south africa, some of the more commodity and oil market. but if you read the headlines, it seems perverse. in aggregate, from what they're looking at next year, the market growth is still running at twice the level. so it seems to me it is really simplistic to say there is an emerging market problem that is contamin

then if you look at germany and the border between germany and austria, the germans are saying they're working together with the austrians and the chancellor just made comments at a press conference saying we're working with them. the austrians saying they'll use their police at the border. but even there is a lot of disruption. most of the services have been reinstoried but the line between sauceburg and munich for one has not because people are on the tracks. it's just a health and safety issue like with the highway, like with the a-4, there are literally refugees surging across the border at any kind of channel they can go down. francine: we also have david cameron in lebanon. ryan: ice trying to find a way to solve the crisis, the british way, we'll give money to the refugee camps and we'll take the refugees from the camps and what the european countries should join us in doing is funding those refugee camps as opposed to focusing on these stopgap measures and is a way of speaking to its own electorate and also telling refugees don't come from europe because you won't get in the u.

germany has been the austerity decade. it has been germany saying, we are going to make sure everybody plays by our rules. the french are not playing by the rules anymore. error attacks. i did a history of valls. if you look at 9/11, it is a blip on the vix scale. if it does not affect corporate earnings, the market does not care long-term. it is very difficult for people to affect earnings. i think the interesting thing is rantou look at the mig crisis, that is going to have a big fiscal intact. it's going to increase spending. it's going to have a direct fiscal impact in europe. that will greatly degrade growth, because we have a kind of a problem with demographics here. an influx of young people who are willing to work, long-term will be good. but now we have the security concerns as well. so, i think it is for difficult to balance that. but i think ultimately the it will be a force for good. it will stimulate economies. we will have more fiscal expenditure, and that will be good longer-term. but short-term, it is going

germany being torn up. the vw scandal affecting brand germany. you think about the made in merkel is talking about india and the relationship that exists. is what is happening with germany right now guy: what is the legacy effect? merkel is open to receiving the migrants, everybody was saying this is great. legacyuld change germans that's germany's legacy. then it turned around really fast. everybody's talking about the volkswagen scandal. it is significant for germany's economy. it is based on this export performance. it is a challenge to its image. that could have a significant effect. and when you look at investments around europe and how much you put into germany. are you reevaluating that? i imagine you have been. it on we tend to look at a european, excluding the u.k., asus. -- u.k., basis. markets atemerging that stage, we put some of that back into emerging markets back in august. he mentioned earlier, guy, it had become a crowded chain among investors -- crowded train among investors. you have to be worried about germany whenever there i

germany went with diesel. you look at the saturation, the penetration some of these auto companies have in the diesel market. it is well above 50%. will there be a government policy shift towards hybrid, becauselectrics, that is what direction they could go. last year, there was an announcement there will be subsidies for electric vehicles. that is a question i will watch for, as well as what do the other auto companies say? are they concerned what happened here could metastasize to the entire industry? guy: you mentioned the replacement, the possible replacement for dr. winterkorn. who is on the list? are we going to do with an interim candidate, a permanent replacement? hans: well, depends your definition of permanent and interim. you could have a candidate come in for a couple years and have somebody else be grew to take the company forward. swo names we hear is mathia mueller, the ceo of porsche. they had $3 billion in profits last year. the other candidate would be considered the outside candidate and tha

this goes to the drama we are seeing in germany right now. should germany leave the eurozone? ashokan modi -- ashokan modi -- hugely controversial. we need to hear you @bsurveillance. stay with us on this friday. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." the real world of the greek economy. this is outside athens, the crash of a small firefighting plane. brendan, this goes to the idea that greece goes on every day away from financial and economics. they have an economy to run. brendan: we talked with caroline hyde about that this morning. she said they will be glad when the capital controls are lifted and they can get more than 60 euros out per day. we are always trying to figure out what the important and urgent is. in the background there is something else that is important, which is china. that is what i was looking at this morning, the top story on the terminal. this is from willy pesek at bloomberg view. china's housing slowdown is a major deflationary event. real estate is china's biggest growth engine since 2008. now it is a ne

talk to me about exit and germany. guest: what grexit means for germany? jon: the british exit. brexit. guest: brexit would be a bigger shock for germany and something more difficult to handle. if you compare the two economies, greece's 1.3% of the eu's gdp and the u.k. is about to overcome france as the second-largest economy in the european union. i think germans should be concerned about brexit in the future. jon: one is a monetary union and the other is a trade union. should i be looking at the tab that germany might have to pick up? guest: that is one aspect. mostly, the u.k. is a favorite destination or german exports. and direct investment. the market would lose 15% if the u.k. would leave. germany would lose their second-largest net contributor. these are economic cost of brexit that germany would feel. jon: would it be good for britain? we hear horror stories about car manufacturers relocating and jobs running abroad. does it have to be that bad? guest: not necessarily. it would depend on the kind of arrangement the u.k. would have after brexit. in london we calculated

tom: it is china-germany, china-u.k. as they search for high added value goods, the point is critical that a service sector economy like the one that will leverage the china story. tom: did you like how i used a semi log chart? vonnie quinn knows how to use those. what do we have. starting in north korea. in the country this weekend, a massive military parade took place in honor of the 70th anniversary of the ruling workers party. kim jong-un watched the parade and gave a rare televised speech. told the crowds, "our party can state that our revolutionary armament can deal with any kind u.s. imperialists ask for and we are fully ready to defend the country's blue skies and the people."g of the not quite a declaration of war but fighting words. number two, baseball's most watched moment, chase utley of colliding with ruben tejada, breaking his leg. umpires deemed the play legal during the game. major league baseball has suspended chase utley for games three and four. tom: totally right. outrageous. outraged. this is not ru

germany turned it down. german chancellor angela merkel and french president francois hollande are meeting in paris. they will discuss the fragile cease-fire agreement they brokered in ukraine last week. the government says the town near

mark: coming up, is germany cheap enough yet? we break it down with pmi data out of germany. there are grexit concerns on the euro. the danish central bank governor says the kroner is likely to see the same safe haven in flowflow and why it is a big deal. we take a look at how 2015 is shaping up to be a record-breaking year for the m&a. do you really believe we are going to have a deal on greece in the next 48 hours? that is the big question of the day. that's where you will find me. tweet @markbartontv. ♪ mark: raising the cap for emergency liquidity. the ecb has raised the cap. it happened on a daily basis. we will find out how much the cap has been raised. i want to bring you up to is been with top stories. european leaders have given until tomorrow night to make the final push needed to satisfy creditors and and the standoff. alexis tsipras submitted reform measures. finance ministers will meet tomorrow at ahead of a scheduled summit of eu leaders on thursday. the british company is in talks over a possible merger. if the deal goes ahead it could see the rival. shares a

this is all that exists in germany right now. everybody's watching images of public prosecutors going in and out of the dusseldorf form of andreas lubitz. tom: is there an american equivalent to lufthansa? it is a national -- brendan: it is -- tom: it is a pan am equivalent to you are too young to remember. brendan: no i member pan am. it is a national champion. also, lufthansa is such a simple of the german economic miracle. you can see in the german airports the pictures of lufthansa having started with two planes in 1955, and look where it is now. symbol for the german economy as well. tom: two days in a row of most difficult headlines. we will have more coverage on this, particularly from our european team, through the morning on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. that we attempt a data check. 2% on the data no. 1.98%. back about 1200. churn to the markets this morning. futures negative two, dow futures -21. stay with us as we look at washington. ♪ tom: let's get to our top headlines this friday. here is brendan gree

kissinger: we were first sent to holland really to germany at the port of germany. my unit was assigned to another division for combat experience. then i was pulled out of there and sent to the headquarters of the 84th division. to work in the intelligence section. but that is only three miles behind the front. charlie: you went from being a rifleman to being counterintelligence? dr. kissinger: at first, i was reading captured mail of germans and interviewing prisoners. then i was transferred three months later. charlie: when did you meet a man of enormous influence on you, i the name of kramer? dr. kissinger: i met him when we were training in louisiana. kramer was a german. he wore a monocle, he wore riding boots. he was a ridiculous figure. he was a private and luckily for him there are only two possibilities -- that somebody would kill him or he would get promoted. [laughter] in the general division they pledged him up in germany and made him go give speeches about what war was about. he spoke to my unit and i did something i don't think i've ever done before an

they're not into the high 54 number we are getting from germany. in some ways, the divergent story still holds. in some ways, there is a little bit of convergence because france is doing better than expected. jonathan: great work and more from the later on in the program. let's turn to the data coming out from china. you can see the chinese story in germany. prices were rising last month. we also got numbers from the sector that has been impacted by chinese growth. for more on both of those stories let's bring in the bloomberg team. andrew roberts joins us now. let's talk about the housing/ property data. does this change the outlook as far as you are concerned? >> the issue here is that we have had some much bad data in previous months. they push to the upside on housing data is good news. you have to remember that property and housing real estate comprise about 15% of the chinese economy. it is a real bellwether for over a economic health. there are still some warning signs. there is a huge overhang in availability. there are tons of apartments a

the dax and frankfurt, germany 1.5% in germany. a lot to talk about. the ecb decision later. over in sweden, the central bank decision. let's go to caroline hyde for more. caroline: the swedish kroner strengthening. that is the reaction that most help. no change, of course the overall rate remaining at minus .35%. economists had hoped for more of a cut. more stimulus. they hold off. the swedish krona strengthening. down .4%. krona atwer swedish the moment. strengthening off the back of the fact a hold up in stimulation. they need to focus on trying to boost the overall inflation. way off target at the moment. they allowed the market -- perhaps they did not move fast enough and stimulating their economy. stimulate, they must. after that surprise rate cut back in july. at the moment, swedish krone strengthening against the dollar. jonathan: remarkable situation over in sweden. they downgraded their forecast for 2016. 3.4% gdp.to they are running a qe program. remarkable for the academic, the traders alike. a very special guest i want to get to now. joining us live, deputy ceo o

let's talk about germany. setting out for us the link between the two countries and just how exposed the german economy is to a slowdown in china. how much weaker do you expect it to come through in germany? >> we have to remember that although china is important and an important export destination, and endt the be all all. the signs we are seeing from germany are reasonably good. let's wait to see what the revisions say later this morning. overall, we are looking at an economy which is being driven by strong domestic demand, consumption, investment year on year performing well, and net exports are picking up. overall, domestic demand and what is happening to the consumer is more important to germany at a moment than what is happening to international markets. anna: when we have talked about the strength of the german model in the past, we have talked about how they have been since hustle in exporting high-end manufactured products into the chinese market. they have been very successful at doing that. we have

how coalesced is germany right now? is the germany of 2015 the germany of 1989? hans: at least in terms of the small businesses and the industrial engine that drives germany forward -- dr. sinn is an excellent barometer of that. politically things shifted over the weekend, where the spd is firmly in merkel's cap in their approach to greece. there is an op-ed over the weekend, talking about laying a pretty thick and heavy on greece. not a lot of daylight among elites. tom: the challenges of greece against a global backdrop -- we saw a rate cut with russia moments ago. martin sorrell knows that america cannot go it alone. he just returned from china europe and you are in western -- >> i was in the middle east actually. tom: within the fractious area of the middle east. >> saudi is doing very well actually. you see the shift from beirut to dubai. beirut used to be the center, and then it went to dubai. a lot of our business is now coming out of saudi. tom: do you wake up feeling a world bank global 2.8% global gdp? >> actually, there is a big discrepancy between wha

germany's dax hits 12,000 for the first time ever. for the crude plants, oil drops to 2009 lows as investors await news from the fed. and, where is putin? after disappearing from the public eye, the russian president is scheduled to be in st. petersburg today. good morning. you are watching "the pulse."

in germany, 7:00 in london. then we get the press conference 30 minutes later. , when had a colleague ronald reagan was assassinated, he claimed that nothing would happen, so he just went to the gym. if you have that kind of clarity that there will be no major news , you are more clairvoyant than i am. i have no idea what the fed is going to do. it is just bloviating until then. francine: you are absolutely right. european stocks are already fluctuating. this is eight years in the making. i think there is a serious question to be had on how they are going to do this mechanically. if they do decide to raise rates, how they are going to do it. francine: thank you so much. keep it right here on bloomberg tv. stay tuned for the "surveillance" team. ♪ >> this is bloomberg surveillance. ignore aeconomy cannot fragile china and the collapse of brazil. economists have never been more polarized. we speak with ethan harris and john ryding and danny blanchflower. martin sorrell on his new media marker. good morning, this

you look at germany's industrial strength. they see india and their burgeoning middle class as a real opportunity. you compare it with china, almost 10 times as much trade with china as with india. india has their own problems. they have a bureaucracy. mr. modi has been cutting down red tape. mr. modi is advertising his own country, but there seems to be an acknowledgment from mr. modi and the german press that india needs to tweak their economy make it more open, for this relationship to really blossom. guy: pons, thank you very much indeed. francine: here's a look at what else is on our radar this monday morning. after months of speculation, hillary clinton has announced that she will seek the democratic nomination for u.s. president in 2016. clinton made the announcement in a web video yesterday. it is the second presidential run from clinton who will become the country's first commander in chief who is female if elected. guy: wolfgang piech throwing his support behind martin winterkorn . piecjhh said he was kidding himself

germany did not do that well either, but germany is the par. if france is doing well as germany, that is some kind of success for the french government. the worrying thing is that consumer spending grew much, much less than it has in previous quarters. that is what has kept the french government afloat. there was a change in stocks. that is something that could be repaired in the next quarter. exports did a bit better than they had in the past. that is kind of a good sign. i would not fret too much about this. the government has set a conservative target of 1% growth for the year and they are almost there. a mixed bag. francine: greg, thank you. let's go to paul. are we disappointed with the germany figures because the euro should have help this economy farther? a little bit disappointing, but not an ambitious growth target, anyway. germany has record low unemployment, record low borrowing costs, and a weak euro. it did help exports. consumption contributed as well. .nvestment was a drag ecb policymakers said in july that they were disappointed

it is important to strengthen the internal market in germany. to have a second pillar besides the export orientated economy. we must develop the internal domestic market. to strengthen the internal market, it is also a possibility to account for macro economic imbalances in europe. guy: i am fascinated. two things come to mind. do you think -- are you being more aggressive on the wages because you think you have the support of central bankers? which does not normally happen. this time around they are keen to see big wage increases. the second thing is du, as a result of what you are saying think that germany's policy of not allowing more demand in germany to help the rest of europe out is wrong? >> first i will say we are not more aggressive because we have to support -- the support of the central bank. in each collective darkening round, we are very self-conscious. we know our power. it is great to hear that we must strengthen the internal markets eye raising wages here. guy: that is something, you are hearing that in france and greece. i'm not

germany opening an investigation. emergencies to political, european leaders are meeting to tackle the migrant isis. crisis.your -- migrant severe stress on russia, we look at how the country is turning a path out of recession at the ceo of one of russia's biggest banks. ♪ fugood morning, i'm scarlet we will get a look at the market check. stocks in the rent. by can see large declines 190 points in the dow jones, s&p losing 1.1%. extending weakness. the s&p 500 yesterday gaining almost nine points but today it is getting back all of that advance and more. if you look at treasuries, risk off equities, prices are rising so that is raining down the yield. the yield on the 10 year, 2.5%. there is confusion about what the federal reserve does next after it declined to raise interest rates there is no significant thing on the calendar today so that is adding to the kentucky -- confusion. we had a stronger dollar yesterday. right now you are looking at the dollar lose ground versus the yen but it is gaining against the eur

michael mckee speaks with -- speaks on the new germany. -- speaks with axel weber on the new germany. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." brendan: we do not know whether the greek parliament will extend the deal. we are waiting on several parliaments in europe to sign off on the deal. tom: we are sequential as we go to sunday. this, then that. brendan: if it looks good, we may be able to sleep in on sunday at not look at the news at all. tom: i have to look on sunday night. let's go to top headlines right now with brendan. brendan: less than one hour from now, the greek parliament will start the debate on the next bailout plan. european institutions they could control the fate of greece -- they want to start economic reforms before they said -- before they send bailout money. alexis tsipras once a $59 billion bailout. the plan is very similar to the one that greek voters rejected last sunday. greek banks will not reopen until monday at the earliest. less than three hours from now the confederate flag will be taken down on the grounds of the south carolina capital. it has been there f

that penalty is going to be costly for germany. way.buckingham is a job.ckson did the just trying to narrow those seconds. >> that is the gap between buckingham and those two pursuers. >> he is a warrior. will narrow the gap. he's such a brilliant swimmer. some very basic counting. the pressure being applied to buckingham. there they come. they are a country mile clear. >> france came out in second place. that's how important it is to have no weakness in your game isp make sure your helmet done up. you don't want to add another 10 seconds. >> he knows easiest -- he knows he has outrun buckingham. they work together and talking becomesmart, if he stubborn and does not take the lead, that's going to give bailey a chance because bailey is a great runner. >> he is laying it down. he wants the gold medal. news of thatf the penalty is in the crowd. >> at this point, you just have to transition. it's going to come to just a few seconds. does he still have some? >> a good transition. >> the guy who needed the fastest transition. >> vincent

charlie: so germany opened it doors? peter: it did. it did rightly so, for many reasons. firstly, we feel that we have common standards of humanitarian laws and values, and we have to live up to that, and we have a very liberal asylum law in germany that i think is, i think, a lesson of our history. in nazi germany, we produced many refugees, and many countries took them in, so i think one lesson of our country -- of our history is we have to be very liberal and very humane when it comes to exile. charlie: here, the decision by your chancellor and apparently public support for her, including tabloids. is that accurate reporting? peter: yes, and that support for her, for the foreign minister who embraced that, a wave of refugees. it is really high, and that is something that i am, frankly, very proud of, that this reaction was so positive, and it shows so much for the refugees, and i think it is wise. if we look beyond this immediate wave, we need immigration in germany, and it provides a great opportunity. this flow of refugees. we are an aging society, and we need immigr

update us on the status of greece and what germany is doing wrong. robert: i think what they are doing wrong is they are forcing the greek economy into greater and greater depression as the price for getting the bailout. greece will get more money. it will be able to go on paying interest on its debt but at the cost of driving the economy into greater recession. that is a self-defeating circle. the greek economy has fallen by 25% in the last five years. it is projected to go and get smaller by 5% this year. what are they trying to do? they are really cutting off the real basis of servicing the debt. meanwhile, they are increasing the debt so it cannot work. joe: has europe forgotten the lessons of post-world war ii? there were a lot of people talking about germany and the fact that they were supposed to get debt relief and that helped europe and that should have applied to greece as well? what is the historical lesson here? robert: the historical lesson, the settlement between debtors and creditors has always got to be negotiated. there are creditor

the way germany would have to sell restructuring, which is ultimately the taxpayers of germany would be footing the bill because it is debt they would have to write off and germany is the largest creditor, you would have to see greeks take some pain with that. not pain in the streets, but pain financially. you have 130 million euros in the greek banking system. and then you can restructure the debt in a way that the imf discussed, a $50 billion restructuring, and you get to something sustainable. i do not think that will put greece and a particularly good position. i will say that syriza's contingent probably is not the high end of the deposit base in grace. -- greece. most of the people who voted for syriza where the young. they do not have a job. 60% unemployment. alix: we have to go. greece has dominated the headlines all day, but there's another big story you may have missed and that is coming up. ♪ front and center today, but something you may have missed, oil and china. oil prices sliding well below $60 a barrel. what happened when we had that big selloff? guest: i wish i had

i think germany has to follow policy that is much wider. growth policy in europe, we have had quite a few years of recession. the idea that austerity after recession will simply be enough has been a drag on the economy. we need investment in public infrastructure and energy, communications and transportation throughout europe to unify the single market investment in high quality investment in research and development. this is where europe is competitive and where we need to go. we need to further integrate into the strong banking union and fiscal coordination, things like eurobonds. that would be very important and not putting the burden only on the periphery. germany has a high surplus account and more spending would be better. alix: i was the former greek prime minister with our own pimm fox. thanks so much for watching the bloomberg market day. have a wonderful afternoon and enjoy this 100 degree weather. see you tomorrow. ♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." we begin this evening with the tragedy in

that is different from saying that germany is leading europe. germany is leaving germany right now. that is a serious problem. tom: our twitter question of the day -- is the euro crisis over? also, we will speak to dr. bremmer about what you do not understand on the iranian deal. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. let's get to top headlines. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: flooding brings deadly results in ohio. high water washed away a mobile home south of cincinnati killing a pregnant woman and those coup other children. nearly five inches of rain -- killing a pregnant woman and two other children. nearly five inches of rain fell. a bridge collapsed on interstate 10 about 50 miles west of the arizona border. officials say they have no idea when it will reopen. the jobless car goes to college. a testing ground for autonomous vehicle is opening today at the university of michigan. the site is called m ci and is designed to simulatety suburb and city traffic settings. "ant-man" debuted this weekend with $50 million. "minions" was second. it was not directed by wolfgang schauble. brendan:

she has 80% approval ratings in germany. i think it is unlikely she will based on previous experience. i think the real trigger will be the banks. greek does the ecb 3.5 billion euros on july 20. the ecb will recall, banks insolvent and demand a resolution plan. i think the greek government will have to start printing a legal tender and i think that will be the avenue through which greece affectively has to leave the eurozone. >> there is no question even if tsipras is in a stronger position with a more unified party in greece, the germans have to come to the table. merkel was not as popular today in germany as her finance minister, who absolutely is ready for a greek exit and has been pushing as hard as he can. having said that, it is france today sitting down, the french president sitting down with angela merkel, and they would like to see a way out of this process. the germans may be leaders but they're not acting by themselves. while merkel has been prepared to accept the grexit, she does not want responsibility for it.