1 00:00:01,37 --> 00:00:06,44 Welcome to the science for the public lecture series science for the public is an 2 00:00:06,48 --> 00:00:11,62 organization committed to bringing science information and issues to the general 3 00:00:11,71 --> 00:00:16,60 public visit our website for our program listings and log. 4 00:00:27,96 --> 00:00:31,65 Good evening I'm Yvonne stab for science for the public and I welcome you to 5 00:00:31,66 --> 00:00:36,94 tonight's contemporary science issues and innovations program our distinguished 6 00:00:36,95 --> 00:00:42,94 guest tonight is Maharaj Pandit professor of environmental studies and the director 7 00:00:42,95 --> 00:00:48,44 of the Center for Energy Supply unary studies of mountain and Hill environment at 8 00:00:48,45 --> 00:00:52,60 the University of Delhi in India this year he is 9 00:00:52,61 --> 00:00:57,48 a fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Research at Harvard University 10 00:00:57,69 --> 00:00:58,73 where he's writing 11 00:00:58,78 --> 00:01:04,08 a book on the Somalia's or the Himalayas as we say here Amalia is called the roof 12 00:01:04,09 --> 00:01:05,42 of the world and as such has 13 00:01:05,43 --> 00:01:09,67 a critical role in climate change and environmental health of the planet in 14 00:01:09,68 --> 00:01:14,62 a single generation this icon of nature has been assaulted by the combined stresses 15 00:01:14,85 --> 00:01:20,26 of climate change and reckless development Dr pundit's research is concerned with 16 00:01:20,27 --> 00:01:26,68 complex ecological systems of Amalia and the impact of ecological stress his 17 00:01:26,69 --> 00:01:31,79 research combines multiple types of data and investigative approaches resulting in 18 00:01:31,80 --> 00:01:38,46 a much deeper understanding of the dynamic situation in the Amalia today Dr penned 19 00:01:38,47 --> 00:01:39,80 it received his Ph D. 20 00:01:39,81 --> 00:01:44,98 From the University of Delhi and subsequently joined the faculty there in two 21 00:01:44,99 --> 00:01:49,79 thousand nine hundred the director of the school's environment studies and later 22 00:01:49,80 --> 00:01:54,71 the head of the Department of Environmental Studies Dr penned it was elected to the 23 00:01:54,72 --> 00:02:01,23 National Academy of Sciences in India in twenty four team tonight he explains the 24 00:02:01,24 --> 00:02:07,58 vulnerability and resilience of the him Alia ecological systems and the work of his 25 00:02:07,59 --> 00:02:13,37 him Alia lab we are very pleased and honored to welcome Dr Maharaj Pand. 26 00:02:14,65 --> 00:02:16,07 I want to be giving you 27 00:02:16,11 --> 00:02:22,24 a bit of background too to do this job and the subject of climate change the look 28 00:02:22,25 --> 00:02:22,37 there are 29 00:02:22,38 --> 00:02:29,46 a lot of confusion about climate change not for good reasons. So the first thing 30 00:02:29,47 --> 00:02:34,42 is that we don't understand that the greenhouse gases are the culprits it's 31 00:02:34,46 --> 00:02:40,87 perfectly established and these greenhouse gases have raised global average 32 00:02:40,88 --> 00:02:45,80 temperatures which is also very well established and the kind of anomalous weather 33 00:02:45,81 --> 00:02:51,94 that we get which is indicative of global warming Well it's not very well 34 00:02:51,95 --> 00:02:57,96 established but it is likely to very likely and we very likely understand what are 35 00:02:57,97 --> 00:03:04,88 the drivers of these global changes sadly 36 00:03:05,55 --> 00:03:12,03 that we are aware of the solutions to the problem these are well understood but 37 00:03:12,62 --> 00:03:17,56 the prospect of initial initiating solutions by particularly the developed nations 38 00:03:18,39 --> 00:03:23,55 they are there are still wanted that extremely uncertain therefore we have not been 39 00:03:23,56 --> 00:03:30,32 able to make much progress now if you one of the immediate 40 00:03:30,40 --> 00:03:35,62 threats that looms large particularly in America or those nations which have 41 00:03:35,72 --> 00:03:42,45 a huge coastline is the sea level rise and the recent 42 00:03:42,46 --> 00:03:49,13 studies very clearly suggest that. The sea level rise the 43 00:03:49,14 --> 00:03:55,27 causes are two major major causes one is the thermal expansion of water which 44 00:03:55,28 --> 00:04:00,91 happens when temperature increases the second most important is melting of glacis 45 00:04:02,01 --> 00:04:08,24 So it's here that the Himalayas come in so you have 46 00:04:08,96 --> 00:04:15,75 him on in places it's suggested that if all the places in the 47 00:04:15,76 --> 00:04:22,38 Amalia they were to recede and they were to melt then you're likely to get about 48 00:04:22,39 --> 00:04:25,83 thirty five centimeters of sea level rise which is a hell of 49 00:04:25,84 --> 00:04:30,68 a lot almost almost thirty percent of the total sea level rise that we're likely to 50 00:04:30,69 --> 00:04:37,31 get from all the places which are but we must also remember remember to. That 51 00:04:37,32 --> 00:04:41,35 Besides the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases there is an under the 52 00:04:41,39 --> 00:04:47,79 immediate threat which is the methane hydrates we're not currently 53 00:04:48,06 --> 00:04:54,64 focusing on methane hydrates but plumes of methane hydrates during summer have been 54 00:04:55,45 --> 00:05:01,51 seen have been observed in the Arctic so we must take cognizance of that as well 55 00:05:03,57 --> 00:05:10,07 now the question is why are we concerned with Himalaya why Himalaya Well 56 00:05:10,71 --> 00:05:15,27 the first thing first the world before and after the birth of the Mandala was 57 00:05:15,28 --> 00:05:21,87 remarkably different scientists believe geologists suggest that 58 00:05:23,88 --> 00:05:30,48 that this was perhaps the most important job physical change on Earth because once 59 00:05:30,49 --> 00:05:34,47 the Himalaya were formed they significantly impacted the global and regional 60 00:05:34,48 --> 00:05:39,94 climate geologically speaking the Himalaya of the youngest and the tallest 61 00:05:39,95 --> 00:05:46,58 mountains biologically they have the longest by a calamity gradient Himalaya is 62 00:05:46,59 --> 00:05:51,79 a global better city hotspot and has the most diverse biomes in the world more 63 00:05:51,80 --> 00:05:52,57 diverse than them 64 00:05:52,58 --> 00:05:59,54 a zone and basin but unfortunately it is least known scientifically and there is 65 00:05:59,55 --> 00:06:02,59 a very high plant and the reason that means the species which are found in the 66 00:06:02,60 --> 00:06:08,95 Imola are not found anywhere else besides is the source of ten major river 67 00:06:08,96 --> 00:06:14,53 systems it is also referred to as the third pole with sixty thousand square 68 00:06:14,54 --> 00:06:20,80 kilometers of my skull or little color then also import more importantly about one 69 00:06:20,81 --> 00:06:24,20 point four billion people live in these basins 70 00:06:33,22 --> 00:06:38,89 Now I will briefly tell you something about the birth of the. I call it that it was 71 00:06:39,67 --> 00:06:46,32 it was almost said in the previous that India started this 72 00:06:46,33 --> 00:06:52,86 journey you can see right here near than tock tick and started moving northwards. 73 00:06:53,97 --> 00:07:00,12 So in about one hundred million years it made this remarkable journey of six 74 00:07:00,13 --> 00:07:04,66 thousand four hundred kilometers to the northeast and then hit this you ration 75 00:07:04,67 --> 00:07:10,76 plate here and that is how the Himalaya were born therefore geologists call it the 76 00:07:10,77 --> 00:07:16,01 continent to continent college and so as it isn't of college and of continents 77 00:07:16,39 --> 00:07:21,40 that's how the Himalaya were born so roughly about forty five to fifty million 78 00:07:21,41 --> 00:07:28,05 years is where when they were born now what would the results of this. 79 00:07:29,79 --> 00:07:36,50 As I said that that it changed the global climate and new phenomena of 80 00:07:36,54 --> 00:07:42,02 harvesting the water by the. SONEs that means the rain rains they were indeed 81 00:07:42,03 --> 00:07:48,00 supported before that had not known such rain so the rain started coming down the 82 00:07:48,01 --> 00:07:54,23 glaciers were formed appear in the reverse came to came to came to being and then 83 00:07:54,25 --> 00:07:59,27 you had this huge wast going to take planes and after after that the humans arrived 84 00:08:02,84 --> 00:08:09,64 so once this one Somalia were born you had this huge area 85 00:08:09,65 --> 00:08:16,41 or water harvesting system therefore humanity also came to known came to be known 86 00:08:16,42 --> 00:08:21,16 as the third pole or issues water towers so you have you have 87 00:08:21,17 --> 00:08:26,12 a monsoon you have your paranoia reversed coming out of this and similar plays an 88 00:08:26,13 --> 00:08:32,82 extremely important role now what is the importance of being the Amalia Why 89 00:08:32,83 --> 00:08:38,78 must we in America be varied about knowing about the Himalayas as I said the tamale 90 00:08:38,79 --> 00:08:44,42 influence the global climate Himalayan origin and tectonics control global 91 00:08:44,43 --> 00:08:50,39 geochemical cycles the end will soon fall in the Himalaya. It controls the 92 00:08:50,40 --> 00:08:55,69 reasonable zone in south and southeast Asia Himalayan glaciers hold the maximum 93 00:08:55,70 --> 00:08:59,92 water outside of the polar regions Therefore the key to water balance of entire 94 00:08:59,93 --> 00:09:06,86 South Asia. And I already said that Himalaya harbor the most diverse biomes more 95 00:09:06,87 --> 00:09:12,43 than. And him all and diverse have sustained every culture and shaped human 96 00:09:12,44 --> 00:09:18,05 civilization or millennia and which in turn have shaped human cultural evolution in 97 00:09:18,06 --> 00:09:24,07 South Southeast Asia Besides all these important things Himmel is also known as 98 00:09:24,08 --> 00:09:29,79 a world of peace tranquility and spiritual satisfaction and that's what the 99 00:09:29,80 --> 00:09:36,35 perceived nature is but Himmel isn't trouble what do we say to Melinda's trouble so 100 00:09:36,37 --> 00:09:40,97 there are some global reasons there are regional reasons and there are some local 101 00:09:40,98 --> 00:09:47,89 reasons we know the the global reasons the greenhouse gas emissions 102 00:09:48,22 --> 00:09:54,10 the meeting hydrants but more regional aspects of the Himalayan war warming or 103 00:09:54,75 --> 00:10:01,60 urbanization roads and vehicle. Deforestation tourism urbanization 104 00:10:02,03 --> 00:10:08,17 and then unfortunately and sadly poverty overpopulation more of poor people 105 00:10:09,74 --> 00:10:14,100 live in the solution not some of the dry words that come to immediately come to 106 00:10:15,01 --> 00:10:21,89 mind when you travel. Is expanding and the culture agriculture is expanding 107 00:10:21,98 --> 00:10:28,84 in the Himalaya to sustain burgeoning human populations if you look at this if you 108 00:10:28,85 --> 00:10:33,01 look at this picture look at this data you will see that in the last fifty years 109 00:10:33,79 --> 00:10:40,04 you have had almost in across the Melanesians you have had almost four times the 110 00:10:40,08 --> 00:10:44,93 increase in population live from Afghanistan to about two point eight percent two 111 00:10:44,94 --> 00:10:49,76 point two point eight times over population in the Chinese side that is the debate 112 00:10:49,77 --> 00:10:55,74 inside so you have this wost population which is now it is hiding in the Himalayas 113 00:10:55,74 --> 00:10:57,44 . As 114 00:10:57,45 --> 00:11:02,44 a result you need more and more settlements to accommodate these people so you have 115 00:11:03,10 --> 00:11:07,30 you have more human settlements coming up whether these are the mountain tops are 116 00:11:07,31 --> 00:11:11,94 these valleys so both in mountain tops and valleys you have human settlements 117 00:11:11,95 --> 00:11:18,42 coming up and then you have this problem of urbanization and one 118 00:11:18,70 --> 00:11:23,28 sad thing that has happened in recent process if you look at if you look at this 119 00:11:23,29 --> 00:11:28,41 picture you will see on this side you'll see is the traditional How is 120 00:11:28,42 --> 00:11:33,29 a village traditional village with the traditional houses the houses are more you 121 00:11:33,31 --> 00:11:39,48 know more broad they're not tall There are so high and they are almost embedded in 122 00:11:39,49 --> 00:11:46,43 the local surroundings the material they used at that point of time was you know 123 00:11:46,48 --> 00:11:51,66 Stone missionary and what structures the most recent ones in which you can see here 124 00:11:51,70 --> 00:11:57,31 are modern houses there are more tall than they are broad and they are made up of 125 00:11:57,35 --> 00:12:01,52 this city enforced cement concrete which is the R.C.C. 126 00:12:02,05 --> 00:12:08,19 And therefore this is good for cement concrete gives rise to what is known as urban 127 00:12:08,20 --> 00:12:15,13 heat island effect so you have is strange situation in the deep. Now 128 00:12:15,31 --> 00:12:22,02 you have these huge urban structures coming up which give rise to urban heat island 129 00:12:22,06 --> 00:12:28,89 effect then one of the one of the important things that has been happening in the 130 00:12:28,90 --> 00:12:34,40 Himalayas is the deforestation we in two thousand and seven we reported for the 131 00:12:34,41 --> 00:12:35,48 first time that there was 132 00:12:35,49 --> 00:12:41,50 a there was this on deported massive deforestation going on in the Himalayas and as 133 00:12:41,51 --> 00:12:43,85 you can see that close to him 134 00:12:43,86 --> 00:12:50,38 a level that in the Western Imola or the eastern Imola you can see the the forests 135 00:12:50,39 --> 00:12:57,37 are coming down rapidly we expect that by two thousand. But by the turn of 136 00:12:57,38 --> 00:13:02,52 the century you would have roughly about twenty five to forty percent of the 137 00:13:02,53 --> 00:13:06,66 Himalayan forest would have gone what are the consequences off of this 138 00:13:06,67 --> 00:13:13,50 deforestation the consequences of deforestation our number one species extinction 139 00:13:13,97 --> 00:13:19,52 so what we found was that the species which are living mostly in the Himalaya 140 00:13:21,42 --> 00:13:26,37 about that means the end to pick species during the five percent of endemic species 141 00:13:26,38 --> 00:13:32,01 would go extinct across across the taxonomy groups whether these are plants with 142 00:13:32,01 --> 00:13:36,56 these are fishes with the desert and Phoebe and reptiles birds mammals so roughly 143 00:13:36,57 --> 00:13:40,04 about twenty five percent of the endemic species will go extinct because of the 144 00:13:40,05 --> 00:13:45,72 deforestation on the other hand because of this because of all these cumulative 145 00:13:45,73 --> 00:13:50,90 impacts there is warming as I suggested there of course there are global real 146 00:13:51,01 --> 00:13:57,96 reasons but also there are some these regional reasons and then what we found was 147 00:13:57,97 --> 00:14:04,33 that that that there is the cause of these warming scenario in the Amalia species 148 00:14:04,34 --> 00:14:09,81 are now moving more north because it's getting hotter down at 149 00:14:09,85 --> 00:14:15,12 a lower elevations therefore most of these species are as we will see further we 150 00:14:15,13 --> 00:14:20,58 will see had that how most of these species are moving north towards cooler you 151 00:14:20,59 --> 00:14:27,50 know elevations the other important problem which is 152 00:14:27,51 --> 00:14:34,27 facing Himalaya today is is almost unprecedented tourism so you have these huge 153 00:14:34,28 --> 00:14:39,41 roads vast number of causes as you can see that you know one thousand nine hundred 154 00:14:39,42 --> 00:14:42,57 eighty three was the cutoff point by the one nine hundred eighty two eighty three 155 00:14:42,79 --> 00:14:49,53 you have this huge you know growth in number of cars being produced and in the 156 00:14:49,54 --> 00:14:51,55 Indian subcontinent and as 157 00:14:51,56 --> 00:14:57,16 a result you have. So so both these tourism both for. 158 00:14:58,28 --> 00:15:04,45 Leisure purposes as well as religious purposes. Is there you can see there are some 159 00:15:04,46 --> 00:15:08,79 Hindu shrines and there are some sick trends in Imola and lot of people visit with 160 00:15:08,80 --> 00:15:13,47 these so now you have you know millions of people where earlier roughly about 161 00:15:14,23 --> 00:15:16,25 twenty thousand or thirty thousand people would go in 162 00:15:16,26 --> 00:15:20,66 a year to today in one season two hundred to three hundred thousand people with it 163 00:15:20,67 --> 00:15:27,47 those those areas therefore concentrated tourism in areas that do not have 164 00:15:27,67 --> 00:15:33,52 very high carrying capacity of of human you know human presents 165 00:15:34,94 --> 00:15:41,65 then you have the consequences of this are these that because of too much traffic 166 00:15:41,69 --> 00:15:44,04 in these areas in terms of where we have 167 00:15:44,05 --> 00:15:50,64 a heavy. Vehicles there you have now blocked carbon which has been 168 00:15:50,65 --> 00:15:55,18 reported even in tedious in the manner for example here this is very interesting 169 00:15:55,19 --> 00:16:00,27 set up on glacier you have huge amounts of you know black carbon there so that when 170 00:16:00,28 --> 00:16:06,65 glacier is is the glacier very close to where from Ganges Oregon. Comes in 171 00:16:07,09 --> 00:16:12,86 so we know now through scientific studies that when there is this increased black 172 00:16:12,87 --> 00:16:19,75 carbon there is increased glacial recession so more number of roads more number of 173 00:16:19,76 --> 00:16:25,73 vehicles more amount of black carbon therefore faster 174 00:16:27,15 --> 00:16:32,47 the decision of less is therefore an enormous looking activity called you know. 175 00:16:33,77 --> 00:16:39,67 Leisure tourism or religious tourism has consequences on production of pollution 176 00:16:39,84 --> 00:16:43,00 like black carbon and ultimately leading to less 177 00:16:43,01 --> 00:16:48,77 a recession so glaciers are being eroded are being lost because of these activities 178 00:16:50,00 --> 00:16:56,15 then. Then there is this recent problem of of you know dam building in the 179 00:16:56,16 --> 00:17:01,33 Himalayas so we have we have large number for example in the Indian modern region 180 00:17:01,34 --> 00:17:06,99 we are like to have more than three hundred dams will be coming up in the next two 181 00:17:07,00 --> 00:17:13,53 decades and the consequences of these terms are that you have 182 00:17:13,97 --> 00:17:20,36 you have again urbanization going going on you will have inundation because large 183 00:17:20,40 --> 00:17:26,49 areas will be submerged under the Reza was and because of the industry. There will 184 00:17:26,50 --> 00:17:30,47 be forest loss and once the there is forest loss you will have more number of 185 00:17:30,48 --> 00:17:37,00 species going extinct so we found something 186 00:17:38,04 --> 00:17:42,92 interesting again we wanted to know in the Himalaya Where are more number of 187 00:17:42,93 --> 00:17:47,97 species at what elevations were number of species and this is how how we found 188 00:17:47,98 --> 00:17:50,24 whether these are higher plants or whether it is 189 00:17:50,25 --> 00:17:57,05 a birds or butterfly mammals fish. And sadly for us we also found where there were 190 00:17:57,33 --> 00:18:03,92 maximum number of species of different taxonomy groups at those places were 191 00:18:04,16 --> 00:18:09,45 higher number of dams as well so there is this unfortunate overlap between the 192 00:18:09,46 --> 00:18:15,96 number of dams and the number of species so therefore the species in the Himalaya 193 00:18:16,29 --> 00:18:20,24 the biological species in the Himalaya are in direct conflict with the number of 194 00:18:20,25 --> 00:18:27,03 dams so dams are not only you know directly or indirectly leading to species losses 195 00:18:27,24 --> 00:18:32,70 but because of this unfortunate overlap you have habitats which have these huge 196 00:18:32,71 --> 00:18:37,17 number of species also being big big being you know there are 197 00:18:37,18 --> 00:18:42,03 a huge number of dams coming up in those Therefore they are threatening they're 198 00:18:42,04 --> 00:18:48,66 threatening the survival of species now. We have we have surely known that. 199 00:18:49,84 --> 00:18:55,15 That you know for example this glacier that can go to Glacier where from gun the 200 00:18:55,16 --> 00:18:58,97 originates or Ganges originates in the last thirty years thirty thirty five years 201 00:18:58,98 --> 00:19:03,45 it has shown to man this you know recession it has gone back by several several 202 00:19:03,46 --> 00:19:06,28 hundred meters so that say that that's 203 00:19:06,29 --> 00:19:12,81 a very worrying factor therefore if you look at the situation in the him earlier 204 00:19:12,82 --> 00:19:19,52 today you have you have climate change you have no human population growth you are 205 00:19:19,53 --> 00:19:23,72 hydro power development you have deforestation your urbanization you have hunting 206 00:19:24,22 --> 00:19:29,78 you have all war exploitation and overgrazing Bye-Bye cattle because there is 207 00:19:29,82 --> 00:19:36,47 a huge human population and then there is tourism so all these. Cumulative impacts 208 00:19:36,70 --> 00:19:43,63 are leading to serious consequences for the Himalayas and all these are undermining 209 00:19:43,64 --> 00:19:49,03 what is called the carrying capacity of the Himalayan. Therefore about two years 210 00:19:49,04 --> 00:19:54,41 back I gave a call that he needs to be protected we need to look for 211 00:19:54,42 --> 00:19:59,78 a safe space for the Himalaya or safe operating space for the Himalaya for people 212 00:19:59,95 --> 00:20:04,72 so what should we do but then there are questions that where is the evidence where 213 00:20:04,73 --> 00:20:11,36 is the evidence for example Himalaya are warming so. We went 214 00:20:11,71 --> 00:20:18,04 to look for that evidence and what we did was that we've been in 215 00:20:18,05 --> 00:20:24,97 search of of an area which where we can get data 216 00:20:25,61 --> 00:20:29,83 which is historical That may be nineteenth century that are so that we have about 217 00:20:30,24 --> 00:20:35,46 you know hundred two hundred years of of that and then the present that then we 218 00:20:35,47 --> 00:20:41,21 will see that whether there was any change in species where the species went went 219 00:20:41,25 --> 00:20:46,94 up so we got lucky we found an old at 220 00:20:46,95 --> 00:20:52,82 a set of eight hundred seventy as from eight hundred seventy to one thousand and 221 00:20:52,83 --> 00:20:59,68 eleven and we looked at that and then we ourselves did did the work in the same two 222 00:20:59,81 --> 00:21:06,55 wellies in the second. And we bottom line is that for five years and 223 00:21:06,71 --> 00:21:12,58 we looked at what what what was the distribution of Flora what was deported earlier 224 00:21:13,98 --> 00:21:20,36 now one of the things which which happens and in the species when temperature 225 00:21:20,37 --> 00:21:25,15 changes that either there could be altered will shift or there could be few 226 00:21:25,16 --> 00:21:29,87 knowledgeable changes or there could be community simply changes or there could be 227 00:21:29,88 --> 00:21:36,61 extinctions So these are different you know responses of biological species so 228 00:21:36,62 --> 00:21:40,85 these are some of the these are some of the areas that we looked at these are some 229 00:21:40,86 --> 00:21:47,46 of the study sites we looked at quickly running through them. And 230 00:21:48,07 --> 00:21:54,65 and these are some of the forests we looked at we botanist and we. Studied and 231 00:21:54,66 --> 00:21:58,69 examined these are some of the species which which are typical Himalayan species 232 00:21:59,35 --> 00:22:04,90 the Blue Poppy and the gentian and so on and so forth these are some 233 00:22:05,83 --> 00:22:12,48 beautiful. Million species Now what did we 234 00:22:12,49 --> 00:22:17,89 find our findings you know 235 00:22:19,48 --> 00:22:25,29 lead us to conclude that the mean temperatures had increased 236 00:22:27,34 --> 00:22:32,70 not so much in the warmer months that means not in the month of June July August 237 00:22:32,89 --> 00:22:36,73 but in the coldest months in the warmest month there was 238 00:22:36,74 --> 00:22:40,98 a mean temperature increase of about one point zero It didn't Celsius whereas in 239 00:22:40,99 --> 00:22:45,32 the coldest months the mean temperatures had increased by three point six five 240 00:22:45,33 --> 00:22:50,87 percent Similarly the lapse rate lapse rate means that when you go up every hundred 241 00:22:50,88 --> 00:22:55,61 meters then how much the temperature falls by how much do we Celsius or for night 242 00:22:56,22 --> 00:23:03,19 now in the historical records what we found was that lapse rate of temperature fall 243 00:23:03,21 --> 00:23:08,20 was point eight two degrees Celsius per one hundred meters that means every hundred 244 00:23:08,21 --> 00:23:13,36 meters when you went up you would lose temperature by point eight or the 245 00:23:13,38 --> 00:23:14,42 temperatures will decrease by 246 00:23:14,43 --> 00:23:19,30 a point eight two degrees Celsius but in recent times what we found was every 247 00:23:19,31 --> 00:23:22,38 hundred meters when we went up there was 248 00:23:22,42 --> 00:23:28,03 a fall of fall of temperature or lapse rate of point four two which which means 249 00:23:28,04 --> 00:23:34,39 that it had how down so we concluded that there was more winter warming and 250 00:23:34,53 --> 00:23:39,03 highest warming happened at all between five thousand three hundred and five 251 00:23:39,04 --> 00:23:45,82 thousand five hundred meter meters so. It is extremely critical for 252 00:23:45,83 --> 00:23:51,64 biologists and for common people to understand that several people be like to do 253 00:23:51,65 --> 00:23:56,14 that after all you know you see the temperatures have not changed if you look at 254 00:23:56,15 --> 00:24:00,30 the average then we do not see there is much change in the temperature but what is 255 00:24:00,34 --> 00:24:06,14 what is critical for them to understand is that the temperatures have changed in 256 00:24:06,15 --> 00:24:12,56 the colder months and biologists would know that it is these colder 257 00:24:12,57 --> 00:24:19,53 months it is that minimum temperature which is extremely important for the 258 00:24:19,54 --> 00:24:25,35 process of lovely So in the spring in the spring when the when the plants fly it 259 00:24:25,36 --> 00:24:29,46 would depend on what kind of temperature profile or temperature you know 260 00:24:29,57 --> 00:24:33,04 temperatures have the gone through the there is 261 00:24:33,05 --> 00:24:39,90 a phenomena called called bolting in and biology or in plant physiology so 262 00:24:40,07 --> 00:24:41,44 you have you have 263 00:24:41,45 --> 00:24:47,51 a situation there Molly where cold months are warmer winter months are warmer but 264 00:24:47,52 --> 00:24:51,31 they're not as warm as the colder months so that is 265 00:24:51,32 --> 00:24:57,13 a critical that was one of the critical observations The second thing was 266 00:24:58,88 --> 00:25:05,60 that. Will this this picture is not very clear but but. Heads very 267 00:25:05,61 --> 00:25:07,67 clear that if you see that there was 268 00:25:07,68 --> 00:25:13,95 a mean upward shift of of elevation ranges in species 269 00:25:14,67 --> 00:25:19,48 thirty percent of the species of course showed roughly about the first one this one 270 00:25:19,52 --> 00:25:25,68 this one is about thirty percent. So between one hundred to two hundred meters that 271 00:25:25,69 --> 00:25:28,78 the next one is about twenty one percent two hundred two four hundred meters the 272 00:25:28,79 --> 00:25:32,38 next one is about four hundred six hundred meters and the next one eleven percent 273 00:25:32,39 --> 00:25:37,18 is about six and so that means eleven percent showed eleven percent of the species 274 00:25:37,19 --> 00:25:37,85 had shown 275 00:25:38,23 --> 00:25:42,29 a shift of about six hundred to eight hundred meters so they had gone up by six 276 00:25:42,30 --> 00:25:48,06 hundred eight hundred meters. That means that now these species that had an 277 00:25:48,07 --> 00:25:53,75 elevation range of of this march had now shrunk almost to this much elevation range 278 00:25:54,22 --> 00:25:54,46 so 279 00:25:54,47 --> 00:26:00,74 a species that almost inhabited this much of elevation range now is the only discharge 280 00:26:00,85 --> 00:26:04,12 that means its population sizes have shrunk as 281 00:26:04,13 --> 00:26:10,04 a result of of of warming so same thing here so if you can see here 282 00:26:10,88 --> 00:26:15,52 if you can see here again whether you see the upper margin of the species of the 283 00:26:15,54 --> 00:26:20,54 lower margin the species this is no changes zero represents no change but you see 284 00:26:20,67 --> 00:26:25,67 large number of species these these circles as you see here the species that are 285 00:26:25,68 --> 00:26:29,99 represented they represent species who we see out of these you know hundred twenty 286 00:26:29,100 --> 00:26:32,50 four species that we examined you'll see 287 00:26:32,55 --> 00:26:37,68 a large majority of their lower margins and upper margins had significantly shifted 288 00:26:37,83 --> 00:26:44,42 from the historic ranges and then the second thing is 289 00:26:44,57 --> 00:26:51,14 that even the species that just maximize that beans in the oldest times say about 290 00:26:51,15 --> 00:26:54,49 two hundred years ago or one hundred eighty years of one hundred fifty years ago 291 00:26:55,24 --> 00:27:00,18 large number of species where at lower elevations now the large number or 292 00:27:00,19 --> 00:27:04,97 a maximum number of species even they are shifting They have shifted. Two things 293 00:27:04,98 --> 00:27:10,39 from this if you see this graph two things very clearly one is that the Maxima or 294 00:27:10,40 --> 00:27:16,67 the peak of number of species have shifted up by about two hundred to three hundred 295 00:27:16,68 --> 00:27:23,46 meters or more but significantly more significantly in recent times the total 296 00:27:23,47 --> 00:27:29,15 number of species protected has gone down significantly so now that means you are 297 00:27:29,16 --> 00:27:35,10 losing number of species so for every Hector of species you now have 298 00:27:35,25 --> 00:27:40,36 a lesser number of species that means that species are going extinct at 299 00:27:40,37 --> 00:27:47,28 a very faster rate because of the warming So these are some of the examples which 300 00:27:47,32 --> 00:27:52,77 Rich Rich we looked at and this is exactly what what they showed where the species 301 00:27:52,78 --> 00:27:58,61 had contracted there the you know the ranges are contracted by fifty percent for 302 00:27:58,62 --> 00:27:59,65 example RAM noble 303 00:27:59,66 --> 00:28:04,86 a very very important email and plant has shrunk by its is contracted by eighty 304 00:28:04,87 --> 00:28:11,54 three percent similarly of the plant which I showed you. Was sixty four percent and 305 00:28:11,55 --> 00:28:16,02 others were sixty percent so these these are some of the species which have shrunk 306 00:28:16,74 --> 00:28:23,66 at this on the other hand now at the at the upper two hundred 307 00:28:23,67 --> 00:28:29,02 elevation or what are called the passes the mountain peaks there you feel you will 308 00:28:29,03 --> 00:28:35,15 find that the number of species in recent times have increased that means there is 309 00:28:35,15 --> 00:28:39,39 that there is no crowding effect happening at those species so 310 00:28:39,40 --> 00:28:46,11 a large number of species which are in ways you which are alien they 311 00:28:46,15 --> 00:28:53,04 are now going up those those mountain tops and the indigenous species are 312 00:28:53,51 --> 00:28:59,21 are being eroded are being are going extinct and they are being invaded by extent 313 00:28:59,51 --> 00:29:06,48 by. Exotics. This has resulted in Alpine 314 00:29:06,49 --> 00:29:08,80 communities because of these high altitudes as 315 00:29:08,81 --> 00:29:13,61 a result of this El pine communities which in the Himalaya have mostly her bushes 316 00:29:13,62 --> 00:29:20,51 Flora's where maximum number of medicine plant herbs are there and people 317 00:29:21,36 --> 00:29:27,75 you know for people use these brittle plants as the first source. And also an 318 00:29:27,79 --> 00:29:33,70 alternate You know health delivery system they are coming under threat those 319 00:29:33,71 --> 00:29:39,24 species are getting lost and alpine meadows in the Himalaya are now being invaded 320 00:29:39,25 --> 00:29:44,55 by more species so you have a ordered species you have 321 00:29:44,56 --> 00:29:49,90 a cell expression is orders below small below the shrubby willows they are making 322 00:29:49,94 --> 00:29:56,21 incursions into Alpine Meadows So my sense is that in future maybe twenty thirty 323 00:29:56,22 --> 00:30:01,84 forty years we would have lost most of these beautiful at palmettos where if you go 324 00:30:01,85 --> 00:30:06,75 in June July August September you will find these lush green beautiful you know 325 00:30:06,87 --> 00:30:12,96 valleys valleys of the valleys beautiful you know flowering Meadows they will be 326 00:30:13,00 --> 00:30:19,34 they will have no more of Shrub lands they will have only one all culture shock 327 00:30:19,35 --> 00:30:26,05 plants only one type of of so you will be the. Hub 328 00:30:26,06 --> 00:30:32,64 issues Flora's will be replaced by the Shrub shop floor which is which is which is 329 00:30:32,65 --> 00:30:33,10 which will be 330 00:30:33,11 --> 00:30:39,86 a sad thing what does it mean for example what does it be for people so if in the 331 00:30:39,87 --> 00:30:46,41 Himalaya you have the parishes Flora you have these Alpine Meadows being replaced 332 00:30:47,09 --> 00:30:51,24 by shrub lands what does that mean for people well as 333 00:30:51,26 --> 00:30:57,37 a as I mentioned that because of because of the loss of this her bishop Flora or 334 00:30:57,38 --> 00:31:02,36 this whole plan middles. The first resource that means people can people go into 335 00:31:02,37 --> 00:31:09,09 these areas they harvest for example but it's not plants or mushrooms and spices 336 00:31:09,10 --> 00:31:15,26 condiments because him earlier this all Toots is full of these species and people 337 00:31:15,43 --> 00:31:22,31 you know harvest them and get some very you know income and they also 338 00:31:22,32 --> 00:31:28,09 use but because the there is no elaborate you know. Western system or what we call 339 00:31:28,13 --> 00:31:34,46 in India system of medicine there so you have. You have an alternate health care 340 00:31:34,47 --> 00:31:41,19 system which which which comes from these. Universal plants then in recent 341 00:31:41,20 --> 00:31:45,18 times what we have witnessed in the Himalaya that there is there is now because of 342 00:31:45,19 --> 00:31:49,90 the increase in temperatures and higher elevations you have profiteer you have you 343 00:31:49,91 --> 00:31:54,27 have the crops are failing so people have to keep all communities in the Himalaya 344 00:31:54,28 --> 00:31:59,50 have to now advance their sowing season so they have in some areas they have 345 00:31:59,55 --> 00:32:02,02 advance sowing season by by 346 00:32:02,03 --> 00:32:08,73 a month and therefore the the whole season of crop has has has has significantly 347 00:32:08,74 --> 00:32:15,68 shrunk Similarly for horticulture the crops like like for example. Apple 348 00:32:15,69 --> 00:32:21,40 far worse that who used to grow apples at elevations in lower elevations now their 349 00:32:21,41 --> 00:32:28,06 crops are failing so they have so their entire you know the entire economic system 350 00:32:28,25 --> 00:32:32,92 has gone topsy turvy because of these climate changes happening in their model then 351 00:32:32,93 --> 00:32:38,93 also simultaneously what is happening is that there are also environmental refugees 352 00:32:38,94 --> 00:32:39,07 or 353 00:32:39,08 --> 00:32:43,72 a mantle of migrations happen happening one example which comes really to me to my 354 00:32:43,73 --> 00:32:49,39 mind is that in the dark for example in the high human that because of the loss of 355 00:32:49,43 --> 00:32:56,39 glaciers. The reverse have dried up and that's the only 356 00:32:56,40 --> 00:33:01,89 source the people have of water therefore they had to they had to they had to 357 00:33:01,90 --> 00:33:07,47 migrate from the those areas so they migrated from those areas therefore these 358 00:33:07,98 --> 00:33:14,58 people become and Robin to diffuse so that so you have on one on one side you have 359 00:33:15,19 --> 00:33:20,59 mass you local level changes or reason level changes happening because of these 360 00:33:21,22 --> 00:33:27,29 because of these. Climate and changes happening happening in the Mulla on the other 361 00:33:27,30 --> 00:33:32,23 hand then we have these large scale changes or global changing that can occur one 362 00:33:32,45 --> 00:33:37,02 one thing which I mentioned the beginning is the sea level rise for example so sea 363 00:33:37,03 --> 00:33:38,18 level rise is 364 00:33:38,22 --> 00:33:44,82 a major major problem and we have. We need to get concerned about it 365 00:33:45,20 --> 00:33:49,53 and it's not that as if something is happening in the Himalayas therefore it's very 366 00:33:49,54 --> 00:33:54,82 far from our home therefore we did not know but we cannot feel disconnected we need 367 00:33:54,86 --> 00:34:00,77 to be everywhere of the problem that if the if the the way the Himalayan warming is 368 00:34:00,78 --> 00:34:05,15 happening and also what what you just want to pause here for 369 00:34:05,16 --> 00:34:11,49 a while and tell you that we not only found that the to Malia the species were 370 00:34:11,50 --> 00:34:18,39 moving up or moving north but we found that to Malia is when we compared it with 371 00:34:18,40 --> 00:34:23,09 literature in literature with other mountain ranges we found that him earlier was 372 00:34:23,24 --> 00:34:29,46 the most warm mountain in the world the the level of 373 00:34:29,86 --> 00:34:34,57 warming the level of temperature change was significantly higher in the Himalayas 374 00:34:35,58 --> 00:34:42,06 understandably so because the the the mountain range is very close to the 375 00:34:42,07 --> 00:34:48,96 tropics is tropics very very close to the equator therefore what what what happens 376 00:34:48,97 --> 00:34:50,18 to the N.D.S. 377 00:34:50,19 --> 00:34:55,01 Or Alps necessarily doesn't have to happen because I have because similar kind of 378 00:34:55,02 --> 00:35:00,27 global change will have more severe impact on the Himalaya than it may have on 379 00:35:00,47 --> 00:35:06,80 Andes and and else for example so if you have no higher rates of warming in the 380 00:35:06,81 --> 00:35:11,30 Himalayas you how you have this global you know you have this glacial recession 381 00:35:12,17 --> 00:35:19,08 both because of than changes. The deforestation the human 382 00:35:19,67 --> 00:35:25,29 don't. Develop until problems are that these are damned with these our roads with 383 00:35:25,30 --> 00:35:31,48 it is our weather the is too much of tourism then the number of cars the number of 384 00:35:31,49 --> 00:35:35,52 buses and number of trucks that go on then you have this carbon pollution problem 385 00:35:35,76 --> 00:35:42,59 there so they will induce changes in in glaciers 386 00:35:42,76 --> 00:35:47,67 they will recede and then you have sea level rise which will impact everybody which 387 00:35:47,68 --> 00:35:54,58 is not necessarily the second. Thing of course is more warming but again 388 00:35:55,14 --> 00:35:56,31 going back to a bit 389 00:35:56,32 --> 00:36:01,31 a bit more here this picture that you see here is that of yuk yuk has 390 00:36:01,32 --> 00:36:07,79 a yacht has an extremely you know Keystone role or key role at those 391 00:36:07,80 --> 00:36:13,71 elevations York generally is referred to as at you know by some people as the truck 392 00:36:13,75 --> 00:36:19,44 and the tractor of those of those population for example in Tibet or some parts of 393 00:36:19,96 --> 00:36:23,84 of Indian. So 394 00:36:24,09 --> 00:36:30,58 a yok provides you will it provides your milk and interestingly when you do not 395 00:36:30,59 --> 00:36:37,53 have water during cold winter then people generally you 396 00:36:37,54 --> 00:36:42,27 know take blood out of lox and they drink blood now not many people know this but 397 00:36:42,28 --> 00:36:49,25 then it provides you even even you know in that thirsty dry cold 398 00:36:49,26 --> 00:36:55,95 region it provides you with the blood so nothing of yobbos waste. The new order 399 00:36:55,96 --> 00:37:02,90 that it gives has Highclere of it well you it people use it to grow crops so now 400 00:37:02,91 --> 00:37:09,28 the problem is if you Molly in meadows if species if the species and 401 00:37:09,94 --> 00:37:16,86 the Haitian species in the Himalaya are lost the food or the forage or the water 402 00:37:16,90 --> 00:37:23,49 for this particular Yuck this this this animal is gone and once 403 00:37:23,50 --> 00:37:27,96 that it's father comes under attack then this animal will have nothing to eat 404 00:37:27,97 --> 00:37:33,50 because it cannot browse it cannot eat Xabi you know plants it cannot eat Shabbes 405 00:37:33,51 --> 00:37:39,18 it's used to eating grass grasses OK so when the grasses are not there so this and 406 00:37:39,19 --> 00:37:45,26 once this JA goes from the lives and livelihoods of these populations it wast 407 00:37:45,57 --> 00:37:51,08 number of people will be will be lost so therefore what I call cultural extinctions 408 00:37:51,25 --> 00:37:58,04 So we are at the brink of having or facing cultural extinctions to hold 409 00:37:58,26 --> 00:38:04,64 a whole you know set of of of cultures at those elevations will be lost 410 00:38:05,34 --> 00:38:09,55 which will be the most which will be the saddest thing to do then 411 00:38:10,34 --> 00:38:15,46 a very interesting phenomenon which you seat no it is in the Himalaya that we call 412 00:38:15,48 --> 00:38:19,63 these Himalayan as the water towers but when you go in the Himalayas you'll see 413 00:38:19,86 --> 00:38:23,99 that the people carry their water bottles because either water which is available 414 00:38:24,18 --> 00:38:28,35 is not good enough to drink because it is polluted or there is no water at all 415 00:38:28,60 --> 00:38:34,30 because the whatever springs and other things there they have dried up so the water 416 00:38:34,87 --> 00:38:39,52 towers have become water scarce there which is which is which is which is 417 00:38:39,53 --> 00:38:46,10 a very very scary situation for as I told you why I asked the majority of people 418 00:38:46,12 --> 00:38:52,91 living in the Himalayas. Face you know water shortages it is not 419 00:38:52,97 --> 00:38:57,37 unheard of for example in the in the in the Himalayan villages that you know 420 00:38:57,49 --> 00:39:03,92 generally the the brunt comes on the women because it is the women who have to go 421 00:39:03,93 --> 00:39:09,02 and fetch water they sometimes have to walk you know in search of water five six 422 00:39:09,03 --> 00:39:15,94 seven eight kilometers to fetch one pail of water so. So forth for the world 423 00:39:16,59 --> 00:39:23,48 Himalayas maybe or what are towers but for the local people sometimes these are 424 00:39:23,64 --> 00:39:27,96 dry you know desert so this this is 425 00:39:28,42 --> 00:39:35,04 a very very bleak scenario which which I have you know painted for you today 426 00:39:35,23 --> 00:39:41,59 so in conclusion let me say notwithstanding the skepticism. The Himalayan 427 00:39:41,60 --> 00:39:47,00 ecosystems show definite signs of warming at the current rate of warming it is 428 00:39:47,01 --> 00:39:50,43 unlikely that the endemic species will get time to unfold after strategies 429 00:39:50,44 --> 00:39:57,11 therefore there will be more extinctions species indexed contractions and 430 00:39:57,12 --> 00:40:03,17 extinctions will happen because of the small population size and then there is as I 431 00:40:03,18 --> 00:40:08,44 said that there is crowding at higher elevations there are more generally species 432 00:40:08,49 --> 00:40:10,60 and there are more invasive species inhabiting 433 00:40:10,61 --> 00:40:16,46 a billion now and then does Mali and warming could have serious consequences for 434 00:40:16,47 --> 00:40:22,54 the people's livelihoods and the regional water cycle. Crop growth timings as I 435 00:40:22,55 --> 00:40:28,18 said have changed and some communities have even migrated so what do we so do we do 436 00:40:28,52 --> 00:40:34,85 so what is suggested that we need to pay heed this is the time to understand the 437 00:40:34,89 --> 00:40:40,00 political and better critical leadership needs to needs to understand the 438 00:40:40,01 --> 00:40:44,80 scientific advice needs to know that what scientists are saying because if you 439 00:40:44,86 --> 00:40:49,62 ignore it you will ignore it at your own peril because not only will you endanger 440 00:40:49,63 --> 00:40:55,75 the the local people their lives and livelihoods but but you're going to endanger 441 00:40:56,57 --> 00:41:01,11 the whole the whole world which is one at least one point four billion people which 442 00:41:01,12 --> 00:41:07,95 are dependent on on the Himalayan you know water resources then I would like to all 443 00:41:07,96 --> 00:41:08,71 do that climate 444 00:41:08,72 --> 00:41:13,56 a wish in needs less of negotiators we need more informed individuals currently it 445 00:41:13,57 --> 00:41:18,28 is not happening so what is currently happening is that there are more talkers 446 00:41:19,16 --> 00:41:24,95 there are more people who can speak good English possibly and maybe maybe have 447 00:41:25,79 --> 00:41:29,99 access to lovely language but but we need more informed inducements to to make 448 00:41:30,00 --> 00:41:35,82 informed decisions then on the part of on the part of the general public. 449 00:41:37,12 --> 00:41:42,08 What they see that their response is between course peace of silence and conspiracy 450 00:41:42,09 --> 00:41:47,58 of denial most of us who know are silent so we don't therefore we are adding to the 451 00:41:47,59 --> 00:41:53,27 conspiracy and those who know they deny most of them they deny all this is not 452 00:41:53,28 --> 00:41:58,68 happening global warming is not happening Himalaya are fine glaciers are not 453 00:41:58,69 --> 00:42:01,72 receding so do not so 454 00:42:01,93 --> 00:42:06,67 a response Currently we are all saluting between these two responses or this is 455 00:42:06,83 --> 00:42:11,01 therefore conspiring almost So the court is pretty of silence and con's place of 456 00:42:11,02 --> 00:42:16,90 the line so it will not be as any difference it will it's going to hurt us. And the 457 00:42:17,07 --> 00:42:22,88 the so on we realize that there is more to life. You know than merely G.D.P. 458 00:42:22,100 --> 00:42:29,72 Growth rate and and most leaders and these negotiators must understand that 459 00:42:30,66 --> 00:42:36,71 most of these climate or or environmental. You know summits they're always about 460 00:42:36,72 --> 00:42:42,65 business for God's sake it's not about business always we're not talking 461 00:42:42,66 --> 00:42:47,50 environment we're always talking how to save businesses we're not talking how to 462 00:42:47,51 --> 00:42:52,16 save this earth this is the only Earth we have there's no other there's no other 463 00:42:52,17 --> 00:42:57,91 Earth there's no place to go so if we destroyed it we destroy our own home there'll 464 00:42:57,92 --> 00:43:04,61 be no no place to go for us therefore these these these negotiations cannot be long 465 00:43:04,89 --> 00:43:11,10 protracted endless and ultimately futile they need to be focused 466 00:43:12,26 --> 00:43:16,85 for example one thing that comes to my mind immediately is what happened to this 467 00:43:16,86 --> 00:43:23,35 promise of you know keeping to two degrees Celsius of warming now they're talking 468 00:43:23,36 --> 00:43:28,86 about anywhere between three to five degrees I'm sure that if that three to five 469 00:43:28,87 --> 00:43:34,72 degrees Celsius warming is allowed to happen then all of us can pack up and go home 470 00:43:35,55 --> 00:43:35,82 it's 471 00:43:35,83 --> 00:43:40,62 a bleak scenario I'm sorry to paint this Blixen area but then somebody has to build 472 00:43:40,63 --> 00:43:47,52 a cat thank you and thank you for your time this is the 473 00:43:47,53 --> 00:43:53,71 gratitude my students graduate students my colleagues thank you very much I'm 474 00:43:53,72 --> 00:43:58,43 grateful to science for the public for giving me this opportunity to share with you 475 00:43:58,44 --> 00:44:01,48 some of my experiences that I have gained over 476 00:44:01,91 --> 00:44:07,72 a couple of decades of research in the Himalaya. We call it 477 00:44:08,53 --> 00:44:14,47 because him in Sanskrit means snow and means house so that's called abode of snow 478 00:44:15,43 --> 00:44:22,19 people refer to it as the Himalayas. Well first up let me say 479 00:44:22,20 --> 00:44:28,56 that. I'm of the firm opinion that act two practitioners of signing to fit 480 00:44:28,60 --> 00:44:30,54 enterprise have 481 00:44:30,60 --> 00:44:36,57 a moral obligation to engage with public for more than one reason. 482 00:44:41,51 --> 00:44:48,33 First lack of information dissolves in the hot big 483 00:44:49,05 --> 00:44:55,68 summer cause I truths that end up in public domain and unnecessarily 484 00:44:55,69 --> 00:45:02,53 confounds simple scientific facts second. In the absence of 485 00:45:02,54 --> 00:45:05,97 experts engaging with public there is 486 00:45:05,98 --> 00:45:12,83 a space for mumbo jumbo those who benefit from the confusion so 487 00:45:12,98 --> 00:45:18,37 we sadly have more negotiators at the international fora as you would have realized 488 00:45:18,38 --> 00:45:24,13 from the recent Paris summit and not the real experts 489 00:45:26,50 --> 00:45:33,47 go there the end result of all this confusion is that these declarations at these 490 00:45:33,48 --> 00:45:40,39 international fora are nice sounding prose. Paris 491 00:45:40,43 --> 00:45:40,66 is 492 00:45:40,70 --> 00:45:48,34 a recent example of this bill to quote an 493 00:45:48,35 --> 00:45:55,33 interesting opening remark of one of such negotiators and I quote The gentleman 494 00:45:55,34 --> 00:45:58,25 said the Paris talks were absolutely 495 00:45:58,26 --> 00:46:03,65 a success in that the agreement that was achieved is one that meets all the 496 00:46:03,66 --> 00:46:05,54 requirements of what would be 497 00:46:05,55 --> 00:46:09,51 a meaningful foundation for long term action but it is only 498 00:46:09,52 --> 00:46:14,48 a foundation so whether the agreement itself is ultimately successful that is 499 00:46:14,49 --> 00:46:20,48 something that can be judged only ten twenty or even thirty years from now so one 500 00:46:20,49 --> 00:46:25,55 can one can see that the Begin with the gentleman stocks about the success of the 501 00:46:25,56 --> 00:46:29,83 agreement but ends up saying that we would come to know about 502 00:46:29,84 --> 00:46:36,61 a success only thirty years from now they're for. A penis in that 503 00:46:36,62 --> 00:46:41,81 sense was was not a success I would I would term it.