The facilities of the ports of Honolulu and Pearl Harbor and the Naval Air Station at Barbers Point are examined as to their suitability as hurricane havens. In general, seaworthy vessels are advised to leave when a hurricane threatens. Preferred evasion tactics are discussed, and advice is given for ships unable to sortie. Comparable advice is given for aircraft at Barbers Point. (Author)

Topics: DTIC Archive, Gilmore,R, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HARBORS, COASTAL REGIONS,...

A procedure for setting hurricane readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. The methodology utilizes a large number of computer-simulated forecasts for actual hurricanes since 1899 that passed near Key West, FL or Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day official forecast error characteristics, and then compared to hindsight estimates of actual winds. These data were used to establish hurricane condition...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Kostyshack,G, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING,...

The development of a model to estimate 30 kt and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts in the North Indian Ocean is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell, Jery D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *TROPICAL CYCLONES, *WEATHER...

A system to infer the probability of an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone's striking within an area, given a tropical cyclone forecast, is described. The probabilities are based on analysis of tropical cyclone forecast errors in the eastern North Pacific. (Author)

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *HURRICANES, DAMAGE,...

Forecast aids are provided for predicting wind conditions at a station when a tropical cyclone passes within 360 n mi. The forecast aids were produced by analyzing a data set comprising the ratios of station wind values to tropical cyclone center wind values. Ratio values were then assigned to the position of the cyclone center. The 360 n mi radius circle about the station was divided into 71 equal area segments and the values of the mean and maximum ratio within each segment were subjectively...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,J D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *GUSTS,...

Forecast aids are provided for predicting wind conditions at a station when a tropical cyclone passes within 360 n mi. The forecast aids were produced by analyzing a data set comprising the ratios of station wind values to tropical cyclone center wind values. Ratio values were then assigned to the position of the cyclone center. The 360 n mi radius circle about the station was divided into 71 equal area segments and the values of the mean and maximum ratio within each segment were subjectively...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,J D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *GUSTS,...

The generation of divergence and to a lesser extent vorticity are highly dependent upon the development of asymmetries in this model. Because of the laborious mathematical analysis, a numerical model should be parameterized using the asymmetries of this model to assess their contributions to the heat, momentum and water vapor budgets of the hurricane.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Nicholson,Francis H, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *ATMOSPHERIC MOTION,...

The Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability (WINDPA) program is documented. WINDPA provides the probability of selected Navy and Air Force bases either being struck by an Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone or receiving winds of at least 30 or 50 kt. The basis for WINDPA estimates is discussed in comparison to a similar western Pacific program (WINDP). WINDPA estimates were subjected to independent reliability testing, the results of which are discussed.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, COMPUTER...

A problem involving overestimates of tropical cyclone wind probabilities for locations that are heavily terrain-influenced is described. Previous studies on this topic are reviewed. A method is described to adjust wind probabilities for terrain, and it is applied for the two Navy ports of Cubi Point, RP, and Yokosuka, JA. Probabilities with and without terrain modifications are tested, and the results are analyzed and compared. The study concludes that the resulting lower wind probabilities are...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WIND, *TROPICAL CYCLONES,...

Forecasts aids for predicting wind conditions when tropical cyclones pass within 360 n mi of a station are provided for Agana, Hong Kong, Kadena and Misawa. A circle with a 360 n mi radius, which was centered on each station, was divided into 71 equal area segments. Data sets consisting of the ratios of station wind values to tropical cyclone center wind values were developed. Computed ratio wind values were then assigned to the grid areas designated by the position of the tropical cyclone...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,J D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *Gusts, *Weather forecasting,...

The ultimate objective of this effort is to provide the OFDA with reliable estimates of damage and casualties that will result from a particular tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The contract objective is to design, develop, program and test a system suitable for automation to provide wind threat information from tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal.

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *THREATS, *WIND, *TROPICAL...

Wind probabilities are examined in relation to the establishment of tropical cyclone readiness conditions at Apra Harbor, Guam, and at Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan. By fitting a conceptual model to the data, decision zones are delineated for setting each condition. While these results apply strictly to the two stations alone, the concepts are general and can be made to apply to other bases and other problems. (Author)

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WIND VELOCITY, *TROPICAL...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *Tropical cyclones, *Weather...

The problem in the Bay of Bengal is partly attributable to the distribution of population in low lying and unprotected areas along the bay, but more important is the configuration of the bay which results in large cyclone induced storm surges (often incorrectly referred to as tidal waves). These surges are an elevation of the sea surface because of the 'barometer effect' (pushing up the water into the cyclones central low pressure) combined with the buildup of wind driven water along the coast....

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *THREATS, *WIND, *TROPICAL...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,Jerry D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *WIND...

The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a tropical cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Jarrell,J D, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *TROPICAL CYCLONES, *WIND,...

This document reports the results of a three-phased evaluation of the tropical cyclone storm surge threat to nine sites of U.S. Navy interest located in the western North Pacific and Indian Oceans: Inchon, Chinhae, Pusan, Yokosuka Sasebo, Buckner Bay, Subic Bay, Guam, and Diego Garcia. A preliminary literature search was conducted to determine storm surges of record. Visits were made to eight of the nine locations to gather on-site data and conduct interviews. The third phase consisted of an...

Topics: DTIC Archive, Compton,Andrew J, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *NAVAL...