CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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Central Intelligence Bulletin

Top Secret

February* 22, 1974

State Department review completed

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February 22, 1974

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Central Intelligence Bulletin

CONTENTS

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ETHIOPIA : Civil disturbances occurring in several

parts of the country. (Page 3)

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IRAQ : Government troops attack Kurdish armed forces

south of Kirkuk. (Page 6)

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CAMBODIA : Khmer Communists south of capital withdraw

artillery. (Page 9)

USSR : Key winter grain areas threatened by weather.

(Page 11)

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EGYPT : Gromyko, Jobert to follow Kissinger visit to

Cairo. (Page 12) !

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JAPAN : Action by US Marines on Okinawa draws blast

from local press. (Page 14)

JAPAN : Expected wage boost will aggravate soaring

inflation. (Page 14)

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ETHIOPIA : Civil disturbances stemming from

long-standing economic and social grievances have
erupted in several parts of the country.

Students, the main participants in the demon-
strations that began on February 19, have engaged
in rock-throwing melees in several cities. The
students are expressing sympathy with teachers who
began a nationwide strike on February 18 to protest
government educational policies and pay scales.

The students are also venting their long-standing
frustrations over government policies, especially
the regime's refusal to permit the formation of a
student union. All junior high and secondary
schools are reported closed, and some university
students are boycotting classes. The US Embassy
reports sporadic gunfire has been heard and has
reliable information that four students were killed
last week and five were killed Wednesday. The
students have selected diplomatic cars as targets,
including some US vehicles. Demonstrations in one
town had distinctly anti-US overtones.

Public transportation has ceased operating
in Addis Ababa because of attacks on buses . Taxi
drivers struck on February 19 to protest the gov-
ernment's inability to deal effectively with the
rising cost of living that has fueled general
labor unrest for several weeks.

The Council of Ministers at a meeting yester-
day issued orders to the security forces to crack
down on all demonstrators. The ministers refused
to compromise with the teachers or to reduce gas-
oline prices , as had been demanded by taxi and
truck drivers.

A strong show of force will probably result
in an escalation of demonstrations and violence.
Senior officials and much of the urban public are
already doubtful that the government of Prime Min-
ister Aklilu can cope with the country's problems.

(continued)

Feb 22, 19 74 Central Intelligence Bulletin

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The government's procrastination in carrying out
reforms has contributed to the public's frustration.

Emperor Haile Selassie may be forced to try to calm
the situation by appointing a new government more
committed to reform. The 81-year-old Emperor nor-
mally does not make important decisions quickly, but
the seriousness of the situation may spur him to
make an early move.

Military units have been deployed to protect
fuel supplies, the airport, and other key instal-
lations. Police reaction to the demonstrations is
mixed. At times they have responded slowly and in-
adequately because they have serious grievances
within their own ranks and sympathize with the dem-
onstrators. On some occ asions, however, the polic e
have reacted brutally. 25X1

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H^ IRAQ ; Government troops, supported by aircraft,
yesterday attacked Kurd ish armed forces about 100

miles north of Baghdad,

The Kurds initially repulsed the troops.

out tne army is sending in reinforcements by air and
may be about to launch a drive to force the local
Kurdish population to evacuate the oil-rich area
around Kirkuk. Kirkuk is located on the outer fringe
of the area claimed by Iraq's Kurdish minority, who
number about 2 million.

One of the main sticking points in the current
negotiations aimed at resolving the long-standing
dispute over Kurdish demands for autonomy has been
the delimitation of the autonomous region. Both
sides are agreed that the Kurdish region would remain
a part of the Iraqi state. The Kurds demand, however,
that Kirkuk be included in the autonomous region; the
government, on the other hand, refuses even to con-
sider this possibility. Under no circumstances could
Baghdad permit a potentially subversive element to
dominate this important oil-producing area.

If the clashes continue, they will doom the
government 1 s attempt to negotiate a settlement of the
Kurdish autonomy issue before March 11, the date on
which the current truce--in effect for the past four
years--is to expire. Baghdad probably will go ahead
and announce its plan for autonomy anyway , whether
the leaders of the dominant Kurdish Democratic Party,
headed by Mustafa Barzani, agree or not. Such a move
would do little to end the long-standing Kurdish

rebellion, however, and fighting probably would be

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F eb 22 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin

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CAMBODIA : Cambodian Army operations south of
Phnom Penh have apparently forced the Khmer Communists
to pull their artillery in this sector out of range
of the capital. Advancing government troops yes-
terday discovered two abandoned artillery positions
and over 400 expended 105-mm. howitzer casings near
Route 201 some seven miles from the city. Communist
units at the center of the southern defense line have
withdrawn to the south bank of the Prek Thnaot River,
leaving behind significant quantities of ammunition.

The government gains on the southern front fol-
low successful government operations northwest of
Phnom Penh which resu lted in heavy Communist losses
in men and materiel. I

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USSR : A front-page article in Izvestia on Wed-

nesday indicates no letup in the unusual weather that
has left this year's Soviet winter grain crop par-
ticularly vulnerable to above-normal winterkill. It
reported that key winter grain areas are threatened
by melting snow, flooding, and ice crusts. Although
claiming "no special grounds for alarm and concern,
the article ordered farmers to drain flooded fields
immediately and prepare for severe frosts that could
kill crops deprived of protective snow cover.

A wet autumn delayed some sowing , and an early
cold spell slowed the development and reduced the
hardiness of the grain in moist of the European USSR.

An unusual thaw in late December, followed by a sud-
den cold spell in mid— January, damaged sowings in
the northeastern Ukraine, the Central Black— Earth
Region, and the Lower Volga. The snow cover needed
to insulate the plants from killing cold was thin or
absent over most of the area through January. Now,
above-normal temperatures in February have completely
melted the snow cover in key areas . Standing water
and ice crusts could suffocate some seedlings, but
more threatening is the warm weather , which reduces
plant resistance to the extreme cold still likely to
occur .

Although the winter grain area lost to winterkill
could exceed the long-run average of 20 percent, a
large planting last fall and the reseeding of damaged
areas to spring grain could still produce a normal
or above-normal 1974 crop. The reseeding is usually
done with feed grains , so winterkill tends to reduce
the breadgrain harvest.

Feb 22, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin

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^ EGYPT ; An Egyptian official informed Ambassador
Eilts yesterday that Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko
will visit Cairo on March 1, just a day after Secre-
tary Kissinger's stopover there.

The official also disclosed that French Foreign
Minister Jobert will arrive in Cairo on March 6 .

Feb 22, 1974

Central Intelligence Bulletin

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JAPAN: US Marines on Okinawa are being severely

criticized by the local press for carrying out live-
firing exercises on February 20 while antibase demon-
strators were in the training area. None of the dem-
onstrators was injured, but a Japanese official has
predicted to US Embassy contacts that the issue will
be raised in the Diet. The government might feel
compelled to request that such exercises be suspended
until after this summer's Upper House elections.

The base issue was quiescent until a few weeks
ago, when the Japan Communist Party began to make _
good mileage out of the alleged dangers involved in
port calls by US nuclear-powered submarines. The US
Embassy is speculating that, because of the increas-
ingly tense political environment in Tokyo, the Tanaka
government might be obliged to oppose any port call by
a nuclear-powered submarine--even one caused by an
emergency at sea or in response to some urgent opera-
tional requirement.

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JAPAN : Labor will probably succeed in forcing

industry and government to grant massive wage boosts
in the next few weeks, aggravating the soaring infla-
tion that is Prime Minister Tanaka's most serious
domestic problem.

A union-directed campaign of demonstrations,
strikes, and slowdowns will move into full gear next
week. The expected pay increases, likely to average
20-25 percent, will outstrip the advances in labor
productivity predicted for this year.

Private industry will probably settle quickly
with its unions. The government, however, may be
more reluctant to yield to the wage and working-
condition demands of the public sector unions. These
unions may resort to widespread disruptions in the
transportation and communications industries.

Tanaka, hoping to avoid a repetition of the
prolonged rail slowdowns that sparked commuter
rioting last year, may seek accommodations earlier
than usual. This would conflict with the attempts
of Finance Minister Fukuda to con trol inflation wit h
fiscal and monetary restraints.

Feb 22, 19 74 Central Intelligence Bulletin 14

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