DOCUMENT RESUME
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VT 010 660
AUTHOR
TITLE
INSTITUTION
PUB DATE
NOTE
AVAILABLE FROM
Clark, David H.
Maine's Occupational Needs to 1975.
Maine Univ., Orono.
Aug 69
93p.
Manpower Research, 40 South Stevens, University of
Maine, Orono, Maine 04473
EDRS PRICE
DESCRIPTORS
IDENTIFIERS
EDRS Price MF-S0.65 HC-S3.29
Bibliographies, ^Employment, *Employment
Projections, *Manpower Needs, *Occupational Surveys,
♦Occupations, Tables (Data)
♦Maine
ABSTRACT
A survey of Maine industries provides information on
occupational growth so that educators, guidance counselors, and
directors of educational and training institutions can make
assessments of future manpower needs. Projections are made for all
segments of the economy which are covered by the Federal Insurance
Contributions Act, or about 75 percent of total employment. Data for
making the estimates were supplied by the National Planning
Association. The study showed that no drastic change in occupational
distribution was forecast for the period up to 1975. A comprehensive
section on projected occupational needs provides: (1) a summary of
projections for each occupational group, (2) the entry jobs for each
industry occupational group, and <3) a summary of the training and
education requirements for the entry jobs. Extensive charts and
tables support and illustrate the narrative presentation. (BC)
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Maine's Occupational Needs To 1975
by
David H. Clark
111
A Report to the MAINE AAANPOWER ADVISORY COMMITTEE
This study was conducted with funds provided by the Maine Employment Security
Commission and the New England Regional Commission.
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( , U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH. EOUCATION
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! OFFICE OF EOUCATION
! THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPROOUCED
i EXACTLY AS RECEIVEO FROM THE PERSON OR
; ORGANIZATION ORIGINATING IT, POINTS OF
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Manpower Research Project
University of Maine, Orono v
August 1969
2
Maine Manpower Advisory Committee
Dr. John Coupe, Chairman
Harold Baum
George Chenell
Benjamin Dorsky
Albert Gardner
Arnold McKenney
J. Weldon Russell
Edmund Socec
William Springer
Manpower Research Project Staff;
David H. Clark, Director
Margharetta E. Beitzell, Research Associate
Harland I. Hasey, Research Associate
Josephine T. Crouse, Research Associate
(through August, 1968) ?::*
Marlene S. Spellman, Secretary
Dorothy H. Curtis, Secretary
Supervisors for the summer field survey
Brian Mulherin
Thomas Skolfield
Richard Randall
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page
Chapter 1 SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION 1
Scope of the Study 1
How Projections Were Made 3
Example of the Projection Techniques 4
Effect of Higher Projections of Total Employment ... 6
Non-Trend Employment Growth 6
Occupational Distribution and Change 1960-1968 ... 6
Occupational Distribution and Change 1968-1975 ... 8
Chapter 2 INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT AND OCCUPATIONAL
TRENDS IN MAINE 11
Construction (SIC 15, 16, 17) 11
Food and Kindred (SIC 20) 12
Textile Mill Products (SIC 22) 12
Apparel and Related Products 13
Lumber and Wood Products, Except Furniture
(SIC 24) 13
Furniture (SIC 25) 13
Paper and Allied Products (SIC 26) 14
Printing, Publishing, and Allied Industries (SIC 27) . . 14
Rubber and Miscellaneous Products (SIC 30) ..... 14
Leather and Leather Products (SIC 31) 15
Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34) 15
Machinery, Except Electrical (SIC 35) ... 15
Electrical Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies
(SIC 36)
16
1
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Contents Continued
Title Page
Transportation Equipment (SIC 37) 16
Transportation and Public Utilities (SIC 40-49) .... 16
Trucking and Warehousing (SIC 42) 17
Communications (SIC 48) . 17
Public Utilities (SIC 49) 17
Wholesale and Retail Trade (SIC 50 to 59) 17
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (SIC 60-67) .... 18
Service and Miscellaneous Industries (SIC 70-89) ... 18
Public Administration (SIC 91, 92, 93) 19
Chapter 3 OCCUPATIONAL NEEDS FOR THE STATE OF
MAINE 21
Professional and Technical Workers . . 21
Officials and Managers 26
Sales Workers 29
Clerical and Kindred Workers , . . . 32
Craftsmen 34
Operatives 41
Laborers 45
Service Workers 47
APPENDICES
A Occupational Distribution for Major Industry Groups
in Maine 1960, 1968, and Projected Needs to 1975 ... 53
B Hiring Requirements for Particular Jobs 65
\
C Bibliography ...... 81
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Table
1-1
1-2
1-3
Chart
1-1
1-4
1-5
1-6
1II-1
1II-2
1II-3
111-4
III-5
1II-6
TII-7
IJI-8
III-9
III- 10
III-l 1
III-12
III-13
III-14
III-15
III-l 6
III-17
III-l 8
III-l 9
III-20
III-21
III-22
III-23
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
Title Page
Scope of Study — Total Employment in July 1968 and Groups Excluded from Oc-
cupational Needs Study, and Projections to 1975 2
Occupational Distribution for Electrical Machinery, Equipment and Supplies (SIC
36) 1960, 1968, and Projected Needs to 1975 5
Occupational Distribution for Electrical Machinery Industry 1960, 1968 and
Alternative Projections for 1975 5
Percent of Professional and Technical Workers, 1960, 1968 and Projections
to 1975 ! 6
Occupational Distribution U. S. and Maine, 1960 7
Occupational Distribution in a Selected Part of the Maine Economy, 1960 and 1968
and Projections for 1975 7
Needs for Additional Workers in a Selected Part of the Maine Economy 1968-
1975 8
New and Replacement Professional and Technical Workers Needed to 1975, by
Industry 22
Total Needs to 1975 for Professional and Technical Workers, by Specific Occupa-
tion 23
Entry Jobs — Professional Workers and the Proportion of Professional Workers in
Each Entry Job, by Industry 23
Entry Jobs — Technical Workers and the Proportion of Technical Workers in Each
Entry Job, by Industry 24
Education and Training Requirements for Professional Entry Jobs in Manu-
facturing 24
Education and Training Requirements for Professional Entry Jobs in Non-Manu-
facturing . 24
Education and Training Requirements for Technical Entry Jobs in Manufacturing . . 25
Education and Training Requirements for Technical Entry Jobs in Non-Manu-
facturing 25
New and Replacement Managerial Workers Needed to 1975, by Industry 26
Entry Jobs — Managers, Officials & Proprietors, and the Proportion of These
Workers in Each Entry Job, by Industry 27
Education and Training Requirements for Official and Manager Entry Jobs in
Manufacturing 28
Education and Training Requirements for Official and Manager Entry Jobs in
Non-Manufacturing 28
New and Replacement Sales Workers Needed to 1975, by Industry 29
Entry Jobs — Sales Workers and the Proportion of Sales Workers in Each Entry
Job, by Industry 30
Education and Training Requirements for Sales Worker Entry Jobs in Manu-
facturing 31
Education and Training Requirements for Sales Worker Entry Jobs in Non-Manu-
facturing 31
New and Replacement Clerical Workers Needed to 1975, by Industry 32
Total Needs to 1975 for Clerical & Kindred Workers, by Specific Occupations .... 33
Entry Jobs — Clerical Workers and the Proportion of Clerical Workers in Each
Entry Job, by Industry . , 33
Education and Training Requirements for Office and Clerical Entry Jobs in
Manufacturing ......... 34
Education and Training Requirements for Office and Clerical Entry Jobs in
Non-Manufacturing • • ■ ■ ■■■ 34
New and Replacement Craftsmen Workers Needed to 1975, by Industry 34
Total Needs to 1975 for Craftsmen, Foremen & Kindred Workers, by Specific
Occupations ....................................................... 36, 37
0
Table Title Page
III-24 Entry Jobs — Craftsmen & Kindred Workers and Proportion of These Workers in
C rt Tj m f T rvW v n f i ^ O O O A
III-25 Education and Training Requirements for Craftsmen Entry Jobs in Manu-
facturing 40
111-26 Education and Training Requirements for Craftsmen Entry Jobs in Non-
Manufacturing 40
III-27 New and Replacement Operative Workers Needed to 1975, by Industry 41
III-28 Total Needs to 1975 for Operatives & Kindred Workers, by Specific Occupations . . 42
III-29 Entry Jobs — Operative Workers, and the Proportion of Operative Workers in Each
Entry Job, by Industry 43
III-30 Education and Training Requirements for Operative Entry Jobs in Manu-
facturing 44
III-31 Education and Training Requirements for Operative Entry Jobs in Non-Manu-
facturing 44
III-32 New and Replacement Laborers Needed to 1975, by Industry 45
HI-33 Entry Jobs — Laborers and the Proportion of Laborers in Each Entry Job, by
Industry 45
III-34 Education and Training Requirements for Laborer Entry Jobs in Manufacturing . . 46
III-35 Education and Training Requirements for Laborer Entry Jobs in Non-Manu-
facturing 46
III-36 New and Replacement Service Workers Needed to 1975, by Industry 47
III-37 Total Needs to 1975 for Service Workers, by Specific Occupations 47
III-38 Entry Jobs — Service Workers and the Proportion of Service Workers in Each
Entry Job, by Industry 48
III-39 Education and Training Requirements for Service Entry Jobs in Manufacturing . . 49
III-40 Education and Training Requirements for Service Entry Jobs in Non-Manufacturing 49
APPENDIX A
A-l Occupational Distribution for Contract Construction (SIC 15, 16, 17) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 ... •• 53
A- 2 Occupational Distribution for Food Products (SIC 20) in Maine 1960, 1968, and
Projected Needs for 1975 53
A-3 Occupational Distribution for Textile Mill Products (SIC 22) in Maine 1960,
1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 54
A-4 Occupational Distribution for Apparel and Related Products (SIC 23) in Maine
»•••' 1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 54
A-5 Occupational Distribution for Lumber and Wood Products (SIC 24, 25) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 55
Ar6 Occupational Distribution for Paper and Allied Products (SIC 26) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 . 55
A-7 Occupational Distribution for Printing and Publishing (SIC 27) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 ...... 56
A-8 Occupational Distribution for Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 .... ...................... • • . 56
A-9 Occupational Distribution for Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastics (SIC 30) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 57
A-10 Occupational Distribution for Leather and Leather Products (SIC 31) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 N 57
A-ll Occupational Distribution for Other Durables (SIC 32, 33, 38, 39) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 58
A-12 Occupational Distribution for Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34) in Maine
i960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 ; j . ;V. : 58
A-l 3 Occupational Distribution for Machinery, Except Electrical (SIC 35) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 . 59
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A- 14 Occupational Distribution for Electrical Machinery Equipment and Supplies
(SIC 36) in Maine 1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 59
A-15 Occupational Distribution for Transportation Equipment (SIC 37 in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 60
A-16 Occupational Distribution for Trucking & Warehousing (SIC 42) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 60
A-17 Occupational Distribution for Communications (SIC 48) in Maine 1960, 1968,
and Projected Needs for 1975 61
A-18 Occupational Distribution for Public Utilities (SIC 49) in Maine 1960, 1968, and
Projected Needs for 1975 61
A-19 Occupational Distribution for Other Transportation (SIC 41, 44-47) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 62
A-20 Occupational Distribution for Wholesale Trade (SIC 50) in Maine 1960, 1968,
and Projected Needs for 1975 62
A-21 Occupational Distribution for Retail Trade (SIC 52-59) in Maine 1960, 1968,
and Projected Needs for 1975 63
A-22 Occupational Distribution for Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (SIC 60-67) in
Maine 1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 63
A-23 Occupational Distribution for Miscellaneous Service (SIC 70-89) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 64
A-24 Occupational Distribution for Public Administration (SIC 91, 92, 93) in Maine
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975 64
APPENDIX B
B-l Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Professional Workers 65
B-2 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Technical Workers 66
B-3 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Managers and Officials 67
B-4 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Sales Workers 67
B-5 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Office and Clerical Workers .... 68-70
B-6 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Craftsmen 71-76
B-7 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Operatives 77
B-8 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Laborers 77
B-9 Hiring Requirements for Particular Entry Jobs for Service Workers 78-79
Introduction and
Summary
Chapter 1
The objective of this report is to provide estimates of
occupational growth so that the educators, guidance
counselors, and directors of educational and training
institutions can take the probable needs of the State into
account in planning their programs and advising stu-
dents. These estimates are based on a survey of Maine
industries comprising a large portion of the economy of
the State. The survey data provided a basis for (1) pro-
jections of 1975 occupational requirements of these
industries; (2) identification of entry jobs — jobs that
are normally filled from outside the company, including
(3) the current education and training requirements
for these entry jobs.
The projections should be used with caution and tem-
pered with judgment. There are many sources of possible
error: occupational classification systems leave much
to be desired. There is little historical data on which to
establish State trends especially in regard to occupations.
The techniques used to project occupational require-
ments use national trends, which may not be appropriate
for the State. Finally, predicting the future, especially for
particular sectors of the Maine economy, is a risky task
at best. Consequently, the assumptions underlying the
projected employment trends are made as explicit as pos-
sible, so that the user can make adjustments according
to his best judgment or as new information becomes
available.
The sweeping overview of the Maine economy
reported here cannot replace careful analysis of changes
which may occur in some segments of the economy. For
example, at the time of writing there is a very good
chance that Bath Iron Works will expand significantly.
This . report cannot predict changes due to expansion
at Bath Iron Works, let alone detail the implications of
these changes for occupational requirements. In fact,
the assumption of significant expansion of any industry
would affect the entire set of projections for the State.
It is the responsibility of people concerned with planning
for training and education in the State to be aware of any
significant changes in industry and to work with the
industry in meeting its education and training needs.
■ i>
Scope of the study
Projections are provided for a part of the Maine econ-
omy, about 75% of total employment. Excluded are
employees in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, non-profit
organizations, railroads, education and health services,
the self-employed and private household workers. Table
I- 1 shows total State employment for July, 1968 and the
annual employment for the sectors included in this study.
Most .groups excluded were those not covered by the
Federal Insurance Contributions Act since no list of
firms was readily available. Other groups, especially
Table 1-1
Scope of Study — Total Em
/ — Total Employment in July 1968 and Groups
Occupational Needs Study, and Projections to 197
SIC
A. Estimated Total Labor Force
B. Unemployed
C. Employed
1. Nonfarm
A. Total Manufacturing
Total Work
Force July
1968, MESC
’ 396,186
18,900
377.286
317.286 -
118,052
Excluded From
1975
Estimated Projected
Annual Work Work Force
Force in Scope 1975
of Study, 1968
265,046
265,046
265,046
118,170
284,031
284,031
284,031
Durable Goods
33,342
34,210
38,920
19
Ordnance
NA.
*
24 &
25
Lumber & Wood, and
Furniture v= ,
16,438
16,438
15,300
34
Fabricated metals
; 2,077
2,188
2,200
35
Machinery, exc. elec.
2,621
2,621
3,000
36
Electrical Machinery,
Equipment, Supplies
3,947
4,545
6,700
37
Transportation Equip.
5,162
5,162
8,230
32, 33, 38, 39
Other Durables
3,097
3,256
3,490
Nondurable Goods
84,710
83,690
87,111
20
Food & Kindred
14,698
12,700
14,100
22
Textile
12,156
12,156
9,660
23
Apparel
3,336
3,929
7,080
27
Printing & Publishing
2,587
2,587
2,201
28
Chemicals
989
1,374
1,170
30
Rubber & Misc. Plastic
2,550
2,550
2,880
26
Paper
17,660
17,660
19,100
31
Leather
30,734
30,734
30,920
B. Total Nonmanufacturing
199,234
146,876
158,000
15-17
Construction
18,391
15,500
18,000
Mining
- —
*
-
Transportation & Public
Utilities
16,688
13,902
13,600
40
Railroad
3,655
■ - *
—
42
Trucking & Warehousing
4,418
4,418
4,800
48
Communications
3,345
4,214
4,000
49
Utilities & Sanitary
3,150
3,150
2,900
dj, 44-47
Other Transportation
2,120
2,120
1,900
Wholesale Sc Retail Trade
63,930
61,630
65,000
50
Wholesale Trade
15,429
15,429
17,700
52-59
Retail Trade
48,501
46,201
47,300
53
General Merchandise
7,752
6,671
>8,238
54
Food & Dairy
9,284
9,284
v 7,718
58
Eating & Drinking
8,761
7,542 !
10,795
52, 55-57, 59
Other Retail
22,704
22,704
20,549
60-69
Finance; Insurance &
Real Estate
11,548
11,548
12,800
Service & Other Non-
manufacturing
41,100
16,602
18,200
70
Hotels & Lodging
6,776
5,000
5,000
73
Business Services ; H
2,163 •
2,163
2,800
75,76
Repair Services
1,844
1,844
1,900
78 &
79
Entertainment .It)
Recreation =/
2,023
2,023
2,100
82
Educational Services
4,129
*
’■ — ; . .
86
Non-profit Organizations
7,010
•v : ■■
•
72
Other Personal Services
3,601
3,601
3,600 i.
81,89
Other Professional
1,971
1,971
; 2,800
80 V : ; *
Health Services y / . . -
Public Administration
11,583
•
59,160
■■v : 27,694
30,400
91
Federal ;• ' ’ .
17,970 r
6,706**
10,200
92
"State- ?■ ‘ Z'-T ; ;: -
15*003"
10,213**
7,344 "
93 -
•Local--..;-* -
26,187 v i
10, 775*. *; C ,':;.
13,056
2. Non-farm All Other Vv' * ;
41,000
'1 V*; :v V-;.; •:
i v *v . . 3. Agriculture y (v •
19,000 : . :
v ; ; y.
‘ - y.V-
91
92-3
.Industries .excluded from the Scope of the Study. ^
NonTarm All Other includes: self-employed, proprietors, unpaid private household
: family and domestic iworkers. ■ y- :
♦♦Industries within the Scope of the Study but excluding certain component parts:
Excludes Hospitals, Kittery Naval Yard, and several post office units and military units
unable to be interviewed for varying reasons.
Excludes education, and health and hospitals on State and local levels.
:w w.xsiv'twfl wm w„ wn» nMgntn? r^-n'gri^tJv n ?. •r.” mvftx
education and healthy represent unique., and distinct
problems; consequently it was inappropriate to include
them in such a broad overall study. . , * *r.
How projections were made
The most immediate objective of the study has been
to identify those occupational groups in particular in-
dustries which are going to need the largest number of
hew entrants during the period 1968-1975. Why would
additional persons be required in a particular industry-
occupational group? There are four basic reasons; all
have to be taken into account in projecting occupational
needs of the State. New entrants would be needed: (1)
if the total employment in the industry increases; (2)
because of technological change — as new techniques are
developed or new methods of production and distribu-
tion are introduced, requirements change for different
kinds of workers; (3) because, of changes in the makeup
of industry — most industry projections are in broad two
digit SIC categories which can hide significant changes
in that industry (for example, the occupational require-
ments of one segment of the food industry can be signifi-
cantly different from those of other segments); and (4)
because men or women die, retire, or are promoted out-
side the occupational group and new workers are re-
quired for replacement.
The sources and techniques used to meet these data
requirements are as follows: Employment projections
by industry , 1975 . National Planning Association pro-
jections were the series used to project the total employ-
ment in. each industry for the State of Maine in 1975. 1
NPA employment figures are in concept equivalent to
the national civilian employment data reported in Em-
ployment and Earnings and the Monthly Report of the
Labor Force, that is, they represent a count of persons
employed in the State (including wage and salary
workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family workers
but excluding dual job holders). ■* ;
In general, NPA. projections take, into account pro-
jected national growth by industry and projected State
growth as. a percent of national growth. The projections,
in turn, are reconciled with independent projections of
the labor force and population using an iterative process.
NPA provides the only consistent series of projections
for State employment by industry. It would certainly
be preferable to use employment projections made by
local analysts familiar with the State economy rather
than projections from a mathematical model which has
been applied to all states but these are not available.
. Total employment projections are critical: an alterna-
tive forecast can drastically change projections of par-
ticular occupational needs. An example of the effect of
a larger employment projection is given below. When a
completely consistent locally produced projection of
employment by industry is completed it should be ap-
plied to the estimated State occupational matrix.
The NPA projections have been adjusted to fit within
the scope of the study. Some of the projections have been
changed when they have seemed out of line with recent
employment experience in the State. Table 1-1 contains
the projections by industry , used in this study. 2
National Planning Association. State Population, Net Migration, Labor Force and Industry Employment Trends to 1975.. Regional
Economic Projection Series, Report No. 65-1. Washington, D.C. March, 1965.
2 Following is a brief explanation of the adjustments made: (more explanation is given in Chapter 2 describing employment and
occupational trends in each industry.) ,
SIC ..
01-09 Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries. Not in scope of study
10-14 Mining Not In scope of study
15-17 Construction Reduced by estimated number of self-
employed
27 Printing and Publishing Reduced by estimated number of self-
employed
33 Primary metals Based on more recent data
34 Fabricated metals To remain at present levels
35 Non-electrical machinery
36 '^Electrical machinery
40-49 Transportation and Public Utility
50-59 Wholesale and Retail Trade
60-67 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate,..
; 70-89 , Services
91-93 Government ' :
To rise slightly from present levels
NPA probably too low; estimate is a
straight line projection
Excludes railroads and the self-employed
NPA appears too low; estimate based
straight line projection and excludes self-
employed
Excludes self-employed
Excludes education, health, non-profit or-
ganizations and the self-employed
Excludes * Kittery Naval Shipyard, health,
hospitals and education
3
Changing occupational structure. The Bureau of La-
bor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, has prepared
projections '6f the occupational structure within each in-
dustry for use as a guide in developing State manpower
projections. The BLS projections are the needed pro-
portions for every occupation in each industry, to be
used with projections of total employment (such as those
of NPA). The BLS projections together with suggested
techniques, for their use are contained in their publi-
cation Tomorrow's Manpower Needs. These projections
and forecasting techniques form the basis of the present
study. 3
BLS has compiled an actual industry-occupational
matrix for 1960 containing the occupational . distribu-
tion for each industry based upon the 1960 Census and
a probable matrix for 1975 based upon their knowledge
of the economic and technological factors (such as auto-
mation) which affect the occupational structure in each
industry. The assumption is that state and local man-
power estimates can be more adequate if the analyses
are made within the context of nationwide economic
and technological developments.
In general the technique suggested by BLS is to apply
the national trends for each occupation in each industry
to the statewide figures for 1960. The assumption is that
each industry-occupation group will grow at the same
rate as is found nationally, using 1960 as a base line.
To augment the BLS materials the Manpower Project
conducted a survey in the summer of 1968 among all
firms covered by the scope of the study. 4 Each firm
was asked for: (a) its present occupational distribution
(i.e., how many workers did the firm have in each of the
nine broad occupational groups?); (b) the title of each
entry job, and the number of persons employed under
each entry job title; and (c) their educational and
training requirements for these entry jobs.
Replacement needs. Estimates of need to replace
persons lost because of death, retirement and promotion
have been made using figures as provided by BLS in
Tomorrow's Manpower Needs. These replacement esti-
mates are separately reported so that the reader can
3 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. To-
morrow’s Manpower Needs: National Manpower Projections
and a Guide To Their Use as a Tool in Developing State and
Area Manpower Projections, draft copy. Washington, D.C.,
1967.
Occupational projections are also found in:
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occu-
pational Employment Patterns for I960 and 1975. Bulletin
No. 1599. Washington, D.C., December 1968.
4 All firms with December 1967 employment of ten or more
and 50% of employers with 4-9 workers were contacted by
interviewers.
make adjustments if he feels these should be changed.
Interviewers also asked employers to report how many
replacements were needed in the past year because of
death or retirement. The numbers reported are much
lower than the figures suggested by BLS; the reason for
the discrepancy is unknown.
Example of the projection techniques
This section is a detailed explanation of the techniques
and sources to develop an occupational projection using
the electrical machinery industry (SIC 36) as an ex-
ample. The section also includes the effects of a different
projection for total employment in the industry and the
effects of different assumptions about the occupational
trends within the industry.
Table 1-2 contains the various figures used in develop-
ing the projections for this industry. Columns 1 and 2
contain the occupational distribution for 1960 (source:
U.S. Census) . Columns 3 and 4 are the actual distribu-
tion in 1968 (source: Manpower Project survey). Al-
though total employment increased over 80% during
this period, the number of professional and technical
workers and craftsmen actually declined.
Nationally, the occupational trends in the electrical
machinery industry show rising proportions of opera-
tives and service workers, and declining proportions of
the other groups. The nationwide trends have been ap-
plied to the 1968 figure to arrive at the 1975 proportion
contained in column 6. The proportions in column 6
have in turn been applied to the figure at the top of col-
umn 5, the projected total employment for this industry
as developed by NPA, to arrive at the rest of the figures
in column 5, which is the projected number of persons
needed in each occupational group in 1975. Column 7
contains differences between the 1975 and 1968 figures,
that is, the estimated growth (or decline if a negative
result) in each particular occupational group. Column 8
contains the estimated number of persons needed to re-
place persons who have died, retired, or been promoted
into a different occupational group. 5 Column 9 is the
sum of columns 7 and 8, that is the total needed to fill
any new jobs and any jobs opened up because of death,
retirement or promotion. The column 9 figures are the
projected needs referred to in this report.
Effects of differences in the occupational trends. The
projections arrived at depend, of course, upon assump-
tions about the trend of occupational change and about
the trends of total industry employment. A key assump-
tion for the electrical machinery industry — as for many
5 This figure does not represent total turnover in the normal
sense of the word. Turnover figures would be much higher;
column 8 is net of turnover.
m
" r «TJ.? 1 , rr . ’ .v:r. r «rrr.*^y/>fftr
^i?r^ ^ w ^fl , i l .v .y , i , .,i y. g * ran* : ’!r r rjr/ror?ry r cfla^: f .raax^ •S^i , :t^^ / -y: rr.- -
1
1
I
others — is that state occupational trends of the past
eight years will be changed and that industry in Maine
will folloVv national trends. The figures in Table 1-3 illus-
trate this point. The expected figures for 1968 were
arrived at by applying national trends to the actual State
distribution for 1960. In virtually every occupational
group, however, trends in the State of Maine were , the
. opposite of national trends. To put it in plain terms, the
proportion of good jobs dropped considerably while the
proportion of not-so-good jobs increased very rapidly.
Table 1-2
Occupational Distribution for Electrical Machinery Equipment and Supplies (SIC 36)
1960, 1968, and Projected Needs for 1975*
1975
Totals Needs to
f. 1
1960
Employment
1968
Employment
Projected Change
Employment 1968-1975
Replacements Total Needs
1968-1975 to 1975
1975, Employment
at 19,000
r
No.
(1)
%
(2)
No.
(3)
%
(4)
No.
(5)
%
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
J;
L
Total
Professional &
2491
100.0
4545
100.0
6700
100.0
2150
667
2817
15122
r
Technical
303
12.2
210
4.6
362
5.4
\ 152
37
189
853
I 1
Officials & Managers
80
3.2
221
4.9
295
4.4
74
39
113
654
&
Sales
82
3.3
16
0.4
27
0.4
11
3
14
63
1 1
r
Office & Clerical
297
11.9
181
4.0
181
3.8
74
43
117
584
1
Craftsmen
530
21.3
262
5.8
262
6.1
147
37
184
934
1 j
Operatives
1122
45.0
3311
72.9
.4918
73.4
1607
464
2071
11099
f
Laborers
*'■ 52
2.1
289
6.4
355
5.3 ;
66
30
96
748
fi
I
L
Service Workers
* Source of data: See text
25
1.0
55
1.2
74
1.1
19
14
33
168
Table 1-3
Occupational Distribution . for Electrical Machinery. Industry
1960, 1968 and Alternative Projections for 1975
1960
1968
Alternative Occupational
Distributions for 1975
Actual
Expected
Actual
Following
State Trend
60-68
Following
National
Trend 68-75
Following
National
Trend 60-75
Professional &
Technical
12.2%
15.6%
4.6%
— %
5.4%
16.2%
Officials & Managers
3.2
2.6
4.9
5.4
4.4
2.4
Sales
3.3
2.9
.4
—
.4
2.8
Office & Clerical
“ 11.9
10.3
4.0
3.8
10.3
Craftsmen
21.3
22.2
5.8
V ; ..
6 i
22.7
Operatives
45.0
44.3
72.8
84.4
73.0
43.3
Laborers ; r v
>/;-.^2.1 :kn.
- 1.5 :
f 6.4
<•■■■ 3.9 :
5.8 1
1.6
Service Workers
1.0
• 0.8
1.2
1.2 .
1.0
.6
ERIC
13
N
Given the contradiction between State and national
trends, what will the future be like? A researcher is faced
with a real dilemma. Chart 1-1 illustrates the situation
for- one particular occupational group, professional and
technical workers in this industry. The BLS technique
is predicated on the idea the State trend will parallel
national trends — hence the proportion of professional
and technical workers will rise from A to B. B is the
figure in the last column of Table 1-3. However, the
Manpower survey showed the actual proportion had de-
clined to point C. Will the trend continue to D? Or will
the trend be reversed to parallel national trends and
arrive at point E in 1975? The assumption of this report
is that the latter will occur. To be specific, it is assumed
that any significant changes in the make-up of Maine
industry that did take place have ceased and that in-
dustry in the State will be forced to follow the national
trend of requiring relatively fewer blue collar workers
and relatively more white collar workers. If this assump-
tion proves wrong, the projections of occupational re-
quirements will be in error. If the proportion of profes-
sional and technical workers, projected to rise, in fact
does fall (continuing the trend of the past eight years)
most of the projected need for additional professional
and technical workers in this industry would be elimi-
nated. The rise in total employment and the need for
replacements would do little more than balance the
reduced proportion needed.
% of Professional & Technical
workers
has suggested that employment in the electrical ma-
chinery industry will be at a level much higher than the
NPA projections. If past growth is continued, he says,
employment should be 19,000 in 1975. This figure has
been used to calculate the total needs shown in column
10 of Table 1-2 (assuming the occupational distribu-
tion in column 6 and the replacement needs in column
8). Quite obviously the effects of the larger total em-
ployment are quite drastic in terms of total needs, arid
quite different in terms of the implications one might
have for education and training policy.
Non-trend employment growth
The predictions of future needs made in this report
are based on past trends in the State’s present industries.
It is outside the scope of the study to predict or forecast
the effects of non-trend employment growth, such as
very rapid expansion of an existing industry or the in-
troduction of a new industry. The possibility of rapid
expansion at the Bath Iron Works mentioned in the
introduction is an example of the unusually rapid expan-
sion of an existing industry or firm; a possible new in-
dustry or new situation is the proposed Machiasport
011 refinery and its satellite operations.
Any non-trend employment growth (such as the ex-
amples above) would have important implications for
manpower planning. The BLS publications cited above
provide a source for projecting new manpower needs
should changes in the industrial picture occur, since they"
contain detailed occupational distributions for every
industry, often to the three digit SIC level. Using these
tables it is a relatively simple matter to break down
specific occupations into the total employment that might
be expected. Although single firms may differ considera-
bly from the overall national figures, such an occupa-
tional distribution would provide a starting point for
manpower planning.
Occupational distribution and change 1960-1968
The occupational distribution of Maine and the nation
for 1960 is shown in Table 1-4. Generally speaking
Maine had a lower proportion of white collar jobs (pro-
fessional and technical, clerical and managerial) and a
much larger proportion of blue collar jobs, particularly
semi-skilled (operatives) and unskilled (laborers). The
occupational distribution accounts in part for the lower
Effect of higher projections of total employment. One
of the key assumptions is the figure chosen as the proba-
ble level of industry employment in 1975. Different total
employment figures lead to wholly different projections
of occupational requirements. As an example one ana-
lyst at the State’s Department of Economic Development
paying white collar jobs.
- In 1960, the proportion of professional and technical
workers in Maine was 83% of the national' average. The
lower proportion of professional and technical workers
can be explained in part by the type of industry found
I
l O
|ER]C
14
in Maine. Also there seem to be differences in the staffing
patterns of firms located in Maine; .they employ a much
lower proportion of professional and technical workers
than found nationally in the same industry. The under-
representation of professional and technical workers
occurs in the private sector, the sector of the economy
covered by this study. In the industries surveyed, Maine’s
proportion of professional and technical workers was
60% of the national figure while the State’s proportion
of operatives was 140% and laborers was 133% of the
comparable figure for the nation. In contrast, the number
of professional and technical workers in industries ex-
cluded from the study — mostly in education and health
— made up about the same proportion of Maine employ-
ment (6.3%) as they did nationally (6.1%) in 1960.
Virtually every manufacturing industry had a lower pro-
portion of professional and technical workers than found
in the same industry nationally. This was' not always
true for non-manufacturing. Some of the transportation
industries, public utilities, and most of the service in-
dustries had approximately the same proportion of pro-
fessional and technical workers as is found nationally.
■ Since 1960, the proportion of professional and tech-
nical, clerical, and service workers has risen in the
nation while the proportion of managers, sales workers,
and laborers has fallen. (The proportion of operatives
and craftsmen has stayed about the same.) Obviously,
these trends have important implications for training
and education programs. Table 1-5 shows the occupa-
tional distribution for the State in the industries covered
Table 1-4
Occupational Distribution U.S. and Maine, 1960
United States Maine
White Collar Workers
26,587,834
41.2%
116,949
35.4%
Professional Sc Technical
7,232,410
11.2
30,697
9.3
Managers
5,409,543
8.4
28,130
8.5
Clerical & Kindred
9,306,896
14.4
36,558
11.1
Sales : •
4,638,985
7.2
21,564
6.5
Blue Collar Workers
23,746,424
36.7
151,063
45.7
Craftsmen
8,741,292
13.5
47,502 .
14.4
Operatives
11,897,601
18.4
80,746
24.4
Non-farm Laborers
3,107,531
4.8
22,815
6.9
Service Workers
7,170,795
11.1
33,395
10.1
Private Household Workers
1,725,826
2.7
8,500
. 2.6
Other Service Workers -
5,444,962
8.4
24,895
7.5
Farm Workers
3,950,491
6.1
14,751
4.4
Occupations not reported
3,183,719
4.9
14,426
4.4
Total
64,639,256
100.0
330,584
100.0
Table 1-5
Occupational Distribution in a Selected Part of the Maine Economy, 1960 & 1968
and Projections for 1975*
•>. 'V- 1 -'/ • ■ 1975 :
Projected
1960 % 1968 % Employ- %
'• , • ment
White Collar Workers 84,396 33.6 93,002 35.5 101,121 35.6
Professional & Technical 10,550 4.2 12,706 4.8 15,844 5.6
Managers 17,331 6.9 25,698 9.8 27,260 9.6
Clerical & Kindred 33,909 13.5 35,582 13.6 19,106 6.7
Sales 22,606 9.0 19,016 7.3 38,911 13.7
Blue Collar Workers 149,954 59.6 148,825 56.8 158,700 55.9
Craftsmen 47,724 19.0 37,141 14.2 42,280 14.9
Operatives 82,387 32.8 82,415 31.4 ,!. 87,336 30.8
Non-farm Laborers 19,843 7.9 29,269 11.2 29,084 10.2
Service 17,080 6.8 20,168 7.7 24,210 8.5
• Total * - 251,430 100.0 r; ; 261,995 100.0 284,031 100.0
♦Excluding agriculture, forestry, fisheries, mining, railroads, the self-emjployed,
health, education, and non-profit organizations.
: ■ ■' '■ ■ V- :7 y,/..\ . ’■ ■
Table 1-6
by this study. State trends are very unlike national
trends: among the professional and clerical groups the
growth in Maine has been much slower than found
nationally and among craftsmen and non-farm laborers
the trend in Maine has been exactly opposite of national
trends. Therefore, in the large sector of the Maine econ-
omy covered by this study, the gap between Maine and
the rest of the country in the proportions of white collar
and skilled worker jobs has widened in spite of the eco-
nomic growth that has taken place. The widening gap
can be attributed to specific parts of the economy. In
general, the occupational distribution in most manufac-
turing industries has not followed the comparable trend
in the nation for that industry; exceptions are the fabri-
cated metal, machinery (except electrical), and trans-
portation equipment industries. The non-manufacturing
industries do show occupational trends similar to these
of the nation (the one exception here is that finance,
insurance and real estate shows a much larger increase
in clerical workers in Maine than is found nationally).
These atypical trends make future projections difficult
and the reader should be especially leery of projections
for those industries that have not followed national
trends in the past.
Occupational Distributions and
Change 1968-1975
The third column in Table 1-5 contains the projected
occupational distribution for 1975 using the data, as-
sumptions, and methods outlined in this report. No
drastic change in the State’s occupational distribution
is projected; trends in the State are expected to become
more similar to national trends.
If training activities are to be directed to the needs
of the State, one must take into account (1) the prob-
able needs for particular jobs, (2) whether jobs are
filled from within or from outside the company, and
(3) what firms want in terms of training and educa-
tion requirements.
The total projected needs in each occupation are
shown in Table* 1-6. The fastest rate of growth is ex-
pected among professional workers. However, because
of differences in the overall number of workers in each
occupational group the greatest need in numbers will be
for operatives, then craftsmen, clerical, service, and of-
ficials and managers. In fact, only service workers and
laborers will be needed in smaller numbers than profes-
sional and technical workers.
The prospective needs in each occupational group
may not be a true indication of the number of people
who will be hired from outside the company. Many
openings will be filled from inside the company, perhaps
Needs for Additional Workers in -a Selected Part of the
Maine Economy 1968- 1975
Change in No. of Replace- . Total
Workers
1968-1975
ments
Needs to
1975
Professional &
Technical
2813
2288
5101
Managers
1436
4522
5958
Sales
649
4010
4659
Office & Clerical
3253
8240
11493
Crafts
5419
5163
10582
Operatives
6491
10740
17231
Labor
-1666
3453
1787
Service
1039
5511
6550
from another occupational group. This between occupa-
tion shifting varies between industries, companies, and
jobs. Generally , speaking, the occupational groups with
a high proportion of entry jobs are professional and
technical, saleworkers, clerical, operatives, laborers and
service workers. Most official and manager positions are
filled from inside the company. The general picture for
craftsmen is mixed; in some manufacturing industries
most craftsmen jobs are filled from within the company,
while in the other manufacturing and most non-manu-
facturing craftsmen jobs are entry jobs.
Most firms in the State who hire professional workers
require professional training (e.g., a college education)
and about half of the firms who hire clerical workers
require formal training of some kind. In the other oc-
cupational groups few firms have formal occupa-
tional training as a minimum hiring requirement.
There are almost no educational and training require-
ments for operatives, laborers, and service workers.
This lack of requirements for operatives and similar
jobs is not surprising. But even in the skilled craftsmen
jobs most firms do not require formal occupational
training; the usual requirement is experience in the craft.
The need for training is probably greater than this
study indicates. The hiring requirements reported are
minimum and the vocational school graduate should be
able to compete with the candidate with experience but
no formal training. Other studies show that the Maine
worker with vocational training earns more on the
average than the man who does not have any training. 6
In some cases, though, a selling job may be necessary
to develop an effective demand for graduates of a
particular program.
6 Taking into account age and education: from unpublished
studies, of , the University of Maine’s Manpower Research
Project. .•
•' . j.Vc '* '■. ■ V, ^T' * ?! ^ ^T^TTTriT p A 7 ^
ssmrafssrassa^^
After taking into account needs and current practices
in regard to entry jobs and training requirements these
occupations or jobs appear to be prime targets for train-
ing programs: 7
Professional: Accountants
Engineers
Chemists
Attorneys
Social workers
Draftsmen
Engineering aides
Computer programmers
Electronic technicians
Laboratory technicians
Officials, buyers & purchasers,
Managers, etc. especially
in non-manufacturing
Sales workers in wholesale
and retail trade and finance
Secretaries and Stenographers
General office workers
Bookkeepers
Mechanics and repairmen
Foremen
Electricians
Operatives: Apprentices in construction
The statistics and trends contained in this report are
only a part of the information needed to develop an
overall manpower plan for the State. First of all this
report deals only with the demand side — the needs for
workers. A complete plan must take into account the
supply side, the characteristics of the current labor
force as well as the enrollment and curriculum of the
schools and training programs. Second, there must be
provision for a review and updating of the data and the
projections in their report. The accuracy of key as-
sumptions should be checked and adjustments should
be made for non-trend development and unforeseen
changes in the structure of industry. Fortunately the
1970 Census will provide much of the data needed for
such a review. Third, an accurate analysis of the eco-
^ nomic base of the State is needed which should provide
the basis for better projections of the State’s employ-
ment growth. Particularly needed is more information
about most of the non-manufacturing sectors of the eco-
nomy, information comparable to that found in the
Census of Maine Manufacturing . Fourth, accurate pro-
jections of the manpower demand and supply are needed
for the sectors of the economy not included in this
study, notably health and education.
Technical:
Officials and Managers:
Sales Workers:
Clerical:
Craftsmen:
7 Some of the occupations have high rates of growth but
the total number of new jobs may be relatively small, see
tables in chapter s for estimates of the numbers needed.
: ”■ ■ • •. . ; ' * ^ 9
17
Industry Employment and Occupational Trends
in Maine
Chapter 2
This chapter contains a short, description of employ-
ment and occupational trends in each of Maine’s major
industries along with the comparable national trends. 1
Construction (SIC 15, 16, 17)
There 'were i 8,000 wage and salary workers em-
ployed in contract construction at the time of the survey
in July, 1968. There is considerable seasonal variation
in employment in ; this industry. During 1967, covered
employment in contract construction varied from 9600
workers in March to over 16,000 workers in July and
August, with an annual average employment of 1,3,084.
Such large seasonal changes make it difficult to evaluate
and project occupational requirements in contract con-
struction. The July employment figure has been con-
verted to an estimated annual average employment of
15,500 for 1968 2 which is used for projection purposes.
1 The source for the national employment and occupational
trends is the BTS publication Tomorrow's Manpower Needs.
Maine employment figures and trerids are from figures published
by; the Maine Employment; Security Commission and from U.S.
Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, Maine, .X3JS.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Ad^tional/in-
formation about Maine manufacturing is from Maine Depart-
ment of Labor and , .-Indus^
D.L.I. Bulletins, Augusta, ; Maine. ; % • . ./v,. . hv. ; •
2 We h aye assumed that the - seasonal employment of 2,900
workers were all operatives and laborers.' v • ! :-i ^ ‘ ■ /
Nationally, employment in contract construction has
increased steadily since 1960-61. Maine’s employment
has increased by 14% between 1960 and; 1968, some-
what less than the national growth. Manpower require-
ments nationally are expected to rise by nearly one-third
between 1965 and 1975. Faster increases are expected
among heavy construction contractors, and special trades
contractors. More moderate increases are expected
among building contractors; Maine’s needs, will, of
course, be affected by the number of housing starts in
the State. The projection arrived at for contract con-
struction in the State of Maine takes into account the
slower growth experienced in the past: it is predicted
that the industry. wU^^ workers by 1975, an
increase of 1 7 % over 1 965. j . v '
/.■/A variety of* new technological developments are
being introduced which are expected to change the
occupational distribution. One effect will be reduced
proportions of craftsmen ; and laborers; Even more
important j these , developments are expected to modify
the rates ; and /direction of change in the relative
position of individual occupations. For* example,
the, proportion of carpenters is expected to decline
significantly due to the growing use of prefabricated
components.; The ratio of mechanics, on the other hand,
is .expected to increase in response to the growing use of
scrapers, concrete paving machines, etc. Increases in
1 1
wmwfflwr' rp^?rrffrmftgTr ^ ffT»^nno7niir
requirements for engineers is expected to increase the
proportion of professional and technical workers in the
industry. With these changes in mind, projections for
Maine include a very slight increase in the proportion \
of professional and technical workers, a decline in the
proportion of craftsmen and laborers and an increase
in the proportion of operatives.
Food and Kindred Products (SIC 20)
There were about 12,700 workers in the food industry
in 1968, 3 a rise of about 1,000 workers since 1960.
Three of the nine industry groups within this major in-
dustry accounted for 4,800 or nearly 37% of total em-
ployment in 1968 — meat products, which includes poul-
try dressing and packing, canned or preserved fruits,
and sugar. The remaining workers were in establish-
ments producing dairy products, grain mill products,
bakery goods, beverages and other miscellaneous pro-
ducts.
Most industry groups showed little change in total
employment since 1960. The exceptions were poultry,
which rose by over 200 workers in this 8 year period,
frozen foods, which doubled in size and a new sugar
industry. Canned foods and the fish industry declined.
There was a drop in the number of firms from 469 to
383.
Nationally, production workers account for about
67% of total employment within this major industry
group. The proportion of production workers in the
individual industry groups comprising this industry
group differ widely, ranging from 46% in the dairy
products industry group to over 85% in the canned and
preserved foods industry. Maine’s proportion of produc-
tion workers is somewhat higher than the national aver-
age: 76% of the workers in i960 were production
workers. This proportion had risen to 80% by 1968.
During this period (1960-68) the number of profes-
sional and technical workers stayed about the same,
and the number of managers, salesworkers, office
workers, and craftsmen dropped considerably. The oc-
cupational changes can probably be accounted for by
two factors: (a) the important food industries in Maine
and the important ones that increased in size between
1960 and 1968 are those with a very high proportion of
production workers as a percent of total employment,
namely meat products, canned and preserved foods and
sugar; and (b) the decrease in the number of firms
3 There is considerable fluctuation in employment throughout
the year. Approximately 14,700 were working at the time of
the survey, the summer of 1968. There were an estimated J2,700
annual average employment in the industry in 1968. All the
differences were assumed to be operatives and laborers.
reducing the number of officials, managers, and clerical
workers.
The national outlook for the food and kindred pro-
ducts industry suggests there will be a slight decline in
manpower requirements. Employment trends for indi-
vidual industries are expected to differ. For example,
manpower requirements in the meat production industry
are likely to decline because of increasing use of labor
saving technological innovations. In contrast, modest
employment gains are expected in the canned and pre-
served food industry group, because of the large number
of small plants with little mechanization and the increase
in consumer demand for dietetic and other speciality
foods. Maine’s employment in the food industry group
is expected to rise slightly, to 14,000 in 1975.
Technological innovations expected to have some
bearing on the nature of the industry’s occupational
structure include: more wide-spread use of conveyor
and transfer systems to handle food in process; com-
puter and environmental sensors to control preparation
of food; and automatic equipment to grade, weigh and
package a greater variety of foods. All occupational
groups except laborers are expected to increase in size
in Maine during the next seven years, the largest increase
being operatives but with significant increases also in
craftsmen and office and clerical workers. A small rise
in the number of professional and technical workers is
expected.
Textile Mill Products (SIC 22)
Approximately 12,000 workers were employed in
the textile mill products major industry group in 1968.
The majority of employment was divided between
weaving mills, cotton, and weaving and finishing mills,
woolen. Eighty-seven percent of total employment were
production workers. Nationally there has been a decrease
in the proportion of production workers and increasing
proportion of professional and technical workers. This
has also been true in Maine. Manpower requirements
in the major industry group were expected to decline
nationally and are also projected to decline in Maine,
to about 9,700 in 1975 . 4
In terms of occupational requirements, there is a pro-
jected absolute decline for laborers and operatives and
small but not significant increases in the other occupa-
tional groups. If the projections are correct, this industry
will not be of great concern to educational and training
planners.
4 Textile industry employment in Maine is concentrated in a
few firms. According to County Business Patterns [here are four
firms with over 500 employees. Therefore, it becomes very diffi-
cult to predict what will happen and all projections here must be
taken with a great deal of caution.
Apparel and Related Products (SIC 23)
Almost 4,000 workers were employed in the apparel
industry group in Maine in 1968. About one-third of
the workers produced men’s and boys’ furnishings and
another one-third produced women’s, misses’ and chil-
dren’s outer wear. The remainder made men’s and boys’
suits and coats, miscellaneous apparel, and accessories
and miscellaneous fabricated textile products. Opera-
tives made up 85% of the total work force and produc-
tion workers altogether accounted for 89% of the total
employment, equal to the national average. The propor-
tion of production workers in individual apparel indus-
tries varies only slightly around the average for the in-
dustry group.
Employment in the Maine apparel industry has in-
creased by about 1,000 workers since 1960 and is pro-
jected by NPA to rise to about 7,000 workers in 1975.
This projection apparently reflects the importance in
Maine of those apparel industries which cater to the
rapidly rising demand for apparel for a growing and
more affluent population.
According to BLS, technological developments in
the apparel industry during the next decade are expected
to have relatively limited impact on employment require-
mi .its. The use of technological innovations in apparel
manufacturing has been limited by problems that remain
unsolved. However, the trend toward larger apparel
firms should result in some increase in the labor saving
equipment and production techniques in this industry.
Therefore, only slight changes in the occupational struc-
ture are predicted before 1975. In spite of the large in-
crease in employment, only operatives are expected to
increase significantly; the increases in other occupational
groups will be modest.
Lumber and Wood Products, Except Furniture
(SIC 24)
Approximately 15,300 wage and salary workers are
employed in the lumber and wood products, except
furniture, major industry group in 1968. About one-
third of the workers were in logging camps. Forty-four
percent were producing miscellaneous wood products
and 16% were working in saw mills and planing mills
and the remainder were producing plywood, prefabri-
cated wood buildings, and wood containers. Production
workers made up about 84% of total employment, a
figure slightly less than the national average.
Employment in this industry has been falling in past
years. Employment changes vary widely in the different
industry groups; for example between 1947 and 1965
employment declined almost one half in saw mills and
declined more than one-half in establishments producing
wooden containers. Logging camps and logging con-
tractor employment declined only slightly. Employment
in establishments producing mill wood, fire wood and
miscellaneous wood products increased slightly.
The total employment in this industry is expected to
decline slightly. It is projected by NPA to fall to
13,920 in Maine by 1975. Moderate changes in the oc-
cupational structure are expected during the forthcoming
seven years. Growing mechanization, increasing estab-
lishment size, and shifts in industry composition will in-
fluence the industry’s occupational structure. The most
significant change will be the decline in the need for un-
skilled workers. In the logging sector, larger and more
powerful tree cutting equipment will reduce the need for
lumbermen and woodchoppers. In the lumber and wood
processing sector, mechanization and general plant mod-
ernization will decrease the need for material movement
laborers, machine operator help and other unskilled
workers. Decline of laborers will be paralleled by growth
in the proportion of semi-skilled operatives, needed to
operate the new machinery and equipment. The pro-
portion of mechanics and repairmen will also increase,
as the result of more extensive use of modern complex
machinery and equipment. Few changes are expected in
the white collar occupations.
Furniture (SIC 25)
There were approximately 1100 persons employed in
the furniture and fixtures major, industry group for 1968.
Over 80% were engaged in producing wood and up-
holstered household furniture. Production workers ac-
counted for 84% of total employment, equal to the
national figure. The highest proportion of production
workers nationally is found in the household furniture
industry group. Nationally, there has been an increase
in employment in this sector. State of Maine employment
has remained about constant in the past six y jars.
National manpower requirements in furniture indus-
tries are expected to increase by almost 20% between
1965 and 1975. The demand for household furniture
will be stimulated by, among other things, continued in-
creases in population, in new family formation, disposa-
ble personal income and in the number of families with
two homes. Furniture should be an area of expansion
for the State, and in spite of the lack of growth in recent
years employment is projected to increase to about 1400
employees by 1975.
The application of new technology will have a signifi-
cant impact on requirements for some occupations, but,
in general, occupational structure is not expected to
change appreciably for 1975. For example, the increas-
ing use of automatic machinery such as automatic
routers and the use of specialized semi-skilled workers
13
20
in the production of cabinets is expected to reduce re-
quirements for cabinet makers. The proportion of up-
holsterers is expected to decline also as the use of im-
proved power driven faster equipment, such as nailers,
staplers, tackers, and clippers becomes more widespread.
Balancing the decrease in the proportion of craftsmen,
however, will be increases in the proportion of foremen,
and mechanics and repairmen. Occupational require-
ments in the State are projected to remain about the
same.
Paper and Allied Products (SIC 26)
There were about 17,600 workers in the paper indus-
try in Maine in 1968. Eighty-seven percent of these
worked in establishments manufacturing pulp and paper.
The remainder produced converted paper and paper
board products, and paper board containers and boxes.
Production workers accounted for 78% of the total
wage and salary employment, exactly equal to the na-
tional average.
Paper industry employment in Maine has remained
relatively' constant over the past eight years, as it has
nationally. Although puip and paper production has
been rising, the. output per worker has been increasing
as well through use of more efficient production ma-
chinery. Productivity increases thus have balanced the
increased demand.
Nationally, production workers have decreased as
a proportion of total employment. There are no com-
parable figures for Maine. Manpower requirements in
establishments making paper and allied products are
expected to increase substantially in the next two years,
stimulated by population growth, general business ex-
pansion and rising per capita consumption of paper
products. Although much of the increased production
will be offset by rising productivity, employment in
Maine is projected to increase to about 19,000 workers
by 1975. r . /• •/. ; ;r.; y " .7.
Technological innovations are expected to have a
significant effect on employment requirements in estab-
lishments manufacturing paper and allied products,
particularly in those producing pulp, paper and paper
board. The latter are placing increasing emphasis on
automatic quality control through instrumentation, with
centralized control systems allowing a few workers to
monitor and control production' processes. The increas-
ing use of electronic instruments will raise the propor-
tion of professional and technical workers as well as
the number of craftsmen. The proportion of operatives
is projected to remain about the same with a substantial
decrease in the proportion of laborers.
Printing, Publishing and Allied Industries (SIC 27)
About 2500 wage and salary workers were employed
in the printing, publishing and allied industries major
industry group in 1968 in Maine. Approximately 70%
of these workers were in newspaper publishing and print-
ing establishments with the remainder in commercial
printing. A few persons work in service industries for
the printing trade. Approximately 53% of the workers
were production workers, somewhat below the national
average of 63 % . Employment in printing has risen
slightly in Maine since 1960, with increases in news-
paper publishing and a decline in commercial print-
ing. Total employment nationally is expected to increase
by about 12% between 1965 and 1975, although em-
ployment trends among industries comprising the print-
ing industries major industry group are expected to
differ. Employment requirements in newspaper publish-
ing and printing are expected to decline slightly; type-
setting, plate making and finishing operations will show
decreases, and manpower requirements in the other
sectors of this industry are expected to increase. NPA
projections are for a slight decline in total employment
for the printing industry in Maine to 1975. Because of
the decline, only insignificant needs in printing trades
employment are projected, mostly for replacements.
Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastic Products (SIC 30)
About 2500 workers are employed in the rubber and
miscellaneous plastic products major industry group in
1968. About 70% of the workers were producing plas-
tic products; the others were producing miscellaneous
rubber products. Production workers accounted for
about 86% of total employment of this major industry
group compared with 78% nationally. Employment in
this industry group doubled between 1960 and 1968,
with most of the growth taking place in the plastics
industry.
Nationally, there has been a declining proportion of
production workers in this industry, though not in
Maine. The State’s proportion of production workers
has risen; the number of operatives and laborers has in-
creased while the number of craftsmen has actually de-
clined. The number of professional and technical
workers has declined to almost zero within the State.
Employment is projected to increase to almost 2900
workers in 1975. There apparently is going to be in-
creasing mechanization in the plastic products industry.
However, because of the small base of workers in occu-
pational groups other than operatives, few new workers
will be needed in the other occupational groups.
14
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Leather and Leather Products (SIC 31)
More than 30,000 wage and salary workers were em-
ployed in the leather and leather products major industry
group in 1968. Eighty-eight percent of these workers
were engaged in the manufacturing of footwear, except
house slippers and rubber footwear. The remaining were
in leather tanning and bootshoe cut stock and bindings.
Production workers accounted for 91% of employ-
ment compared with 83% nationally. Employment in
the shoe industry has risen in past years in Maine, a
trend opposite that of the nation where employment has
fallen. There is no information about occupational re-
quirements in the State prior to 1968. Therefore past
trends are not available. Manpower requirements nation-
ally are expected to be about the same in 1975 as they
were in 1965; therefore, employment for Maine is pro-
jected to be about the same as it is in 1968.
A number of significant developments are occurring
in the leather industry that will substantially affect
methods of production in the next 10 years. These tech-
nological developments are expected to substantially
alter the industry’s occupational structure by 1975. For
example, the proportion of operatives are expected to
decline somewhat because of the greater use of more
efficient production equipment including injection mold-
ing machine and vulcanizing equipment; thermalasting
machinery, and geometric lasting equipment. The use
of more leather and leather substitutes in shoe manu-
facturing is expected to affect employment requirements
adversely for cloth cutters, lining cutters and workers
engaged in mulling, treeing, splitting and skinning. Oper-
atives, however, will still make up the largest proportion
of total employment in 1975. Increasing needs for skilled
mechanics and maintenance workers, and for the fore-
men needed to supervise increasingly complex opera-
tions are expected. Occupational requirements in Maine
are projected to follow national trends.
Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34)
There were approximately 2,200 workers employed
in the fabricated metal industry in 1968 in Maine. About
50% were employed in establishment manufacturing
fabricated structural metal products, such as structural
steel metal doors, fabricated plate work and sheet metal
work.
Production workers accounted for about 73% of
total employment, somewhat below the national average.
Employment in this industry has been steadily increasing
in recent years with much of the increase taking place
in the fabricated structural metal products industry
group. The proportion of production workers in Maine
has increased slightly since 1960 rising from 70% to
73%. Nationally, the proportion of production workers
has remained unchanged since 1958. Manpower re-
quirements nationally are expected to rise by about one-
sixth. However, employment trends for the individual
industries are expected to differ because of differences
in demand and rates of adoption of labor saving tech-
nological innovation. Employment in this industry in
Maine is projected to remain about constant at 2,200
workers for 1975.
Technological innovation is expected to play a part
in the relatively minor changes in occupational structure
in fabricated metal establishments by 1975. The transfer
line techniques for machine feeding and materials hand-
ling is already utilized in this industry although its use
is expected to continue to expand. Use of numerically
controlled machine tools, however, is somewhat less
common in fabricated metal establishments and their use
should increase significantly over the decade ahead.
Some operative groups, such as assemblers, inspectors,
electric platers, and machine tool operators will proba-
bly be adversely affected by the increasing use of auto-
matic transfer equipment and numerically controlled
machines as well as other developments. The proportion
of craftsmen is not expected to change very much during
the next few years. But, like operatives some shifts with-
in the occupational group are expected. For example,
in view of the greater efficiency and speed of numerically
controlled machine tools, metal working craftsmen such
as production and tool machinists can expect to find
their relative position somewhat diminished. On the
other hand, ratios of foremen and mechanics and repair-
men should rise as a result of needs for increased super-
vision and maintenance of new and more complex me-
chanical equipment. The only occupational change pro-
jected for Maine industry is a rising proportion of pro-
fessional and technical workers and a declining propor-
tion of laborers. Other occupational groups are expected
to stay about the same.
Machinery, Except Electrical (SIC 35)
There were about 2600 employees in the machinery
production major industry group in 1968. Production
workers accounted for 73% of total employment, a little
higher than the national average. Employment is less
now than in 1960, but the trend has been up in recent
years. Nationally, manpower requirements are expected
to increase by nearly 20% between 1965 and 1975 as
a result of; increasing demand for machinery and related
equipment. Employment in Maine is projected to in-
crease to about 3,000 workers by 1975.
The largest occupational group in the State were
15
craftsmen, 37% of the workers. Next largest was opera-
tives with about 30% of the workers. Technological
changes, which are expected to influence the occupa-
tional structure in this major industry group in the future
include the greater use of numerically controlled ma-
chine tools, automatic transfer equipment, production
control instruments and electronic computers.
Occupational structure is expected to change signifi-
cantly by 1975. Changes projected in Maine are a rise
in professional and technical workers, a small rise in
officials and managers, about the same proportion of
craftsmen and operatives, and a decline in the propor-
tion of laborers.
Electrical Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies
(SIC 36)
This has been one of the fastest growing industries in
Maine, increasing in employment from 2500 to 4500
between 1960 and 1968, a rate much faster than nation-
al growth. About 70% of the 4500 workers were en-
gaged in the manufacture of electronic components and
accessories. The remainder were producing communica-
tion equipment and lighting and wiring devices. Total
industry employment of 6700 is projected for 1975.
Nationally, there has been a decreasing proportion of
production workers, reflecting the more extensive em-
ployment of scientific and technical manpower in the
communications equipment industry; in Maine the pro-
portion of production workers has increased drastically
since I960. While employment in the State rose by more
than 200 workers in eight years, the number of white
collar workers actually declined, mainly a decline in pro-
fessional and technical workers. At present, production
workers make up 76% of total employment nationally
in the electronic components and accessories industry;
in Maine the comparable figure is 85%. Nationally,
professional and technical workers make up 17% of
total employment; in Maine the comparable figure is
4%.
Nationally, operatives account for more than 4 out
of every 10 workers in this major industry group; in
Maine it was 7 out of 10. Large numbers of assemblers
and inspectors are employed, reflecting a relatively low
level of mechanization in the assembly process for com-
plex electronic products. Technological innovation is
expected to have a significant impact on production
processes and therefore on occupational structures in
this major industry group in the years ahead. Although
mechanization of assembly is a distinct possibility, no
great headway is expected in the next decade. The oc-
cupational structure in Maine is projected to reverse the
trend found in the last year and more closely follow the
national trends with a small rise in the proportion of
professional and technical workers and a small decrease
in the proportion of laborers.
Transportation Equipment (SIC 37)
There were approximately 5100 wage and salary
workers employed in the transportation equipment major
industry group in Maine in 1968. 5 About 80% of these
workers were employed in ship building and boat build-
ing, about 20% were employed in manufacturing of
aircraft and parts and a small number were producing
motor vehicle equipment.
Production workers accounted for about 79% of
total employment in Maine, compared with 71% nation-
ally, a result of the high proportion of employment in
ship building and repair. Nationally, employment in the
transportation equipment industry has increased sub-
stantially in recent years. Employment has increased
rapidly in aircraft and parts because of overall increases
in government procurement of aircraft and missies and
increased demand for commercial airplanes. Employ-
ment in ship and boat building and repair has re-
mained fairly constant since 1953, a level below the
World War II level. The proportion of production
workers as a proportion of total employment has stayed
about constant since 1960.
Future manpower requirements are difficult to predict
in this industry. Nationally manpower requirements are
expected to decline in the aircraft and parts group since
output per worker is expected to outstrip a reatively
stable demand for military and commercial aircraft. Em-
ployment in ship and boat building industries is expected
to increase moderately nationally. However, employment
in these areas is subject to governmental policy in regard
to ship building. NPA has projected transportation
equipment employment in Maine to be 8200 in 1975
(the figure excludes Kittery Naval Shipyard). This figure
is probably high if past trends are taken into account;
this figure is probably low if one is very optimistic for
the future of the ship building industry in Maine. We
accept the NPA projection and work on this basis. The
occupational structure is expected to shift slightly with
an increasing proportion of professional and technical
workers, a decreasing proportion of laborers and the
rest of the occupational distribution to remain about
constant.
Transportation and Public Utilities ( SIC 40 to 49)
There were about 17,500 workers employed in
transportation and public utilities industry division in
1968 in Maine. About half of total transportation and
5 These figures exclude workers at the Kittery Naval Shipyard.
16
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public utility employment was concentrated in two major
industry groups — trucking and warehousing (SIC 42)
and communications (SIC 48) each of which repre-
sented about one-fourth of employment. Railroads ac-
counted for about 3,600 workers or about a little over
one-fifth of total employment in this division (railroads
are excluded from the scope of study), while utilities
and sanitary services (SIC 49) accounted for about
20%. Other major industry groups employing smaller
proportions included local and interurban passenger
transit, water transportation, air transportation, pipeline
transportation and transportation services. Total em-
ployment in this industry division has not changed very
much since 1960.
Nationally, manpower requirements in this industry
division are expected to increase moderately through the
mid 1970’s. Employment in the State of Maine is ex-
pected to remain about constant. Motor freight transpor-
tation is projected to increase. Communications and
utilities are projected to drop slightly. Significant num-
bers of persons will be required in certain occupations
within these industry groups.
Trucking and Warehousing (SIC 42)
There were about 4,400 wage and salary workers
employed in the motor freight transportation and storage
major industry groups in Maine in 1968, a slight decline
from the 1960 figure. Nationally, manpower require-
ments are expected to increase by one-fourth between
1965 and 1975. Employment in Maine is expected to
rise to about 4,800 workers by 1975.
More than half of all the workers employed in the
motor freight and warehousing major industry group in
1960 were truck and tractor drivers.
Changing technology during the next few years will
significantly increase output per worker. These techno-
logical developments are expected to change the indus-
try’s occupational structure somewhat nationally and
in Maine. As a percent of total employment, laborers
are expected to decline, particularly in the warehousing
industry.
The greatest employment growth in this major in-
dustry group is expected to occur among larger firms.
Compared to small organizations larger companies hire
considerably higher proportions of clerical workers,
mechanics and repairmen, service workers and foremen.
These workers are expected to increase their share of
total employment as the trend toward larger firms con-
tinues. Customarily managers make up a greater propor-
tion of employment in smaller firms because they often
carry out many functions that are assigned to other oc-
cupational groups in larger organizations. Therefore a
decline in the proportion of managers, officials, and pro-
prietors is expected jn trucking as the number of larger
firms increases.
Communications (SIC 48)
Approximately 4,200 workers were employed in the
communications major industry group in Maine in 1968.
In the nation about eight out of ten were employed by
companies providing telephone services. The remaining
workers were employed in radio broadcasting and tele-
vision, telegraph communications and communications
services not elsewhere classified. Manpower require-
ments are expected to rise slightly nationally. Employ-
ment trends for the individual industry groups are ex-
pected to differ widely, increases in demand in many
cases being offset by increasing use of labor saving tech-
nological innovations. Employment in the State of Maine
is projected to decline slightly to 4,000 employees by
1975.
White collar workers have made up 70% of the total
employment in the nation and in Maine. This high pro-
portion reflected employment of the large numbers of
clerical workers in the telephone industry and techni-
cians and managers in radio broadcasting and tele-
vision. Craftsmen made up a very large percent of the
blue collar workers. Operatives, laborers, and service
workers accounted for only a small proportion of em-
ployment. Occupational structure in the communications
major industry group is dominated by that of the tele-
phone industry. Occupational patterns in telephone
industry group are expected to change slowly by 1975.
The proportion of clerical workers is expected to decline
as direct dialing, automatic billing of long distance calls,
etc. reduce requirements for telephone operators. Crafts-
men are expected to rise as a proportion of total em-
ployment in spite of technological innovations which
tend to reduce requirements for these workers. Profes-
sional and technical workers are expected to rise in pro-
portion mainly because of increasing needs for these
workers to design, service, and modify the complex
equipment used in the industry.
Public Utilities (SIC 49)
In Maine, an estimated 3,100 wage and salary workers
were employed in this major industry group in 1968, a
decline from 1960. Nationally, employment require-
ments are expected to remain at about the same level. In
Maine they are projected to decline slightly to 2,900
workers by 1975. In general, a very large anticipated
increase in industry activities is expected to be com-
pletely offset by rising output per worker resulting from
increasing use of labor saving technological innovations.
24
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