Western spruce budworm egg mass-defoliation surveys : a working group progress report

Historic, Archive Document

Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

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Report No. 77-3
June 1977

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WESTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM EGG MASS-DEFOLIATION SURVEYS --
A WORKING GROUP PROGRESS REPORT f

Compiled by

jdi^ David G.|^rimble and Robert W.|Young

USDA - FOREST SERVICE
FOREST INSECT AND DISEASE MANAGEMENT
METHODS APPLICATION GROUP
DAVIS, CALIFORNIA 95616

1

1

i

Contents

PAGE

INTRODUCTION 1

OBJECTIVES 1

SURVEY DESIGN 1

I. Location 2

II. Egg Mass Sampling 2

III. Description of Defoliation 4

IV. Data Analysis 5

V. Regression Analysis 5

VI. Reporting 7

PROGRESS 8

I. 1976 Egg Mass Sampling - standard errors and sample size 8

II. Data Management System 9

REFERENCES 16

APPENDIX

17

INTRODUCTION

The western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidental is Freeman, is a
serious pest in the western United States, defoliating millions of acres
of spruce-fir forests (Johnson and Denton, 1975; McKnight, 1968). For
many years, forest- entomologists have been sampling budworm egg masses to
monitor population trends, forecast defoliation or to evaluate the effects
of direct control.

Sampling procedures have been developed for budworm in Oregon
(Carol in and Coulter, 1972) and a sequential sampling technique in
Colorado (McKnight, et. al., 1970). Most recent sampling has been done
using essentially one of these two methods, although local modifications
have been made in both sampling schemes. In the five western Regions of
the U.S. Forest Service where western spruce budworm is a pest, no two
were using exactly the same method. Furthermore, the most extensive
budworm infestations currently are in Montana and Idaho (Anonymous, 1976)
and Washington. It is not known how well models developed in Oregon and
Colorado fit these different Regional situations.

Dissatisfaction with the results of egg mass surveys and defoliation
forecasts prompted western forest entomologists to form a working group
to improve sampling techniques and standardize methods. Members of this
group are: Wayne Bousfield (R-1); Charles Minnemeyer (R-2); Robert
Acciavatti (R-3); Larry Stipe (R-4); Robert Dolph (R-6); David Fell in.
Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station; David Grimble, and
Robert Young, FI&DM/MAG.

This report describes progress and accomplishments of the working
group in 1976.

OBJECTIVES

Objectives of this working group are to:

1. Evaluate the reliability of egg mass - defoliation models
available for western Regions and adapt them, where necessary,
to different Regional situations.

2. Standardize procedures west-wide for egg mass sampling,
description of defoliation and reporting of the results of egg
mass and defoliation surveys.

3. Have reliable, defensible prediction models available for
western spruce budworm egg mass surveys by 1978.

The working group will be disbanded when these objectives have been
met, probably in 1978.

SURVEY DESIGN

The following approach was agreed to for estimating egg-mass numbers
and describing defoliation for the 1976 field season:

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I . Location

Field work was done in Regions 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6. Regional personnel
established plots and collected field data from infested areas,
primarily on National Forest land. MAG personnel assisted in
planning, data analysis and coordination of the effort between
Regions.

II . Egg Mass Sampling

1. Entomological Unit - The smallest unit for which a defoliation
forecast was made was an entomological unit. The acreages and
locations of entomological units were determined by the Regions.
They were geographical areas of variable size, but of uniformly
susceptible host type. Entomological units were intended to be
distinct areas which would be managed for insect control as a
block; i.e., a spray block in a control project.

2. Host Species - For the present, Douglas-fir was the host species
sampled. In mixed stands, Douglas-fir was preferred over other
species.

3. Clusters - The sampling unit was a cluster plot of 3 trees.
Clusters were distributed randomly to represent all portions of
the entomological unit sampled. Clusters were referenced by
sketch maps to a known point for relocation. The number of
clusters located in each entomological unit was variable,
depending upon the size of the unit sampled; however, 10
clusters were planned per unit in 1976.

4. Trees - Three trees were sampled in each cluster. Selected
trees were open grown Douglas-fir in the 30-60 feet height
range and were numbered with paint for relocation. Some
defoliation was evident on selected trees but none were totally
defoliated or had dead tops.

5. Branches - Two tip branches (approximately 30 inches long) were
removed with a pole pruner from opposite sides of the midcrown
of each tree. Branches were measured and clipped to a length of
70 cm in the field. Maximum width (cm) of the branches was also
measured in the field and the data were entered at that time on
the data form. Branches were placed in individual bags, numbered
for identification, and transported to the laboratory for
examination at the earliest opportunity. Branches were kept cool
until examination for egg masses.

6 . Laboratory - In the laboratory, branch samples were examined to
locate new egg masses. The number of new egg masses was entered
on the data form (Fig. 1). In some cases, long-wave-length
ultraviolet lights were used to aid in detection of new egg masses
on foliage (Acciavatti and Jennings, 1976).

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WESTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM EGG MASS SURVEY DATA FORM

Year

T.

R.

Date

Crew Name:

Region

Forest

Host

Unit

Cluster

Survey Type

(5 - 7)

Opt. 1

(14 ) (15 - T

(8 -9)
Opt. 2

(10 -11)

(i2 - 13)

20.

Tree

Branch

■k

Length

(cm)

*

Width

(cm)

•kk

Area

(H2)

x.xxx

NEW EGG MASSES Optional Use

Number

No. V
Rows

Row V

Length

(mm)

Un- V

hatched

eggs

(21)

1

1

(22-24)

(25-27)

(28-32)

(33 - 35)

( 36-38)

( 39-41 )

(42 )

(43- )

( so)-

2

(51-53)

(54-56)

(57-61)

(62 - 64)

(65-67)

(68-70)

(71 )

(72- )

( 79)

(21)

2

1

(22-24)

(25-27)

(28-32)

(33 - 35)

(36-38)

( 39-41 )

(42 )

(43- )

( 50)

2

(51 53)

(54 56)

(57 61)

l 62 64")

(65 67)

(68 70 )

"(71 )

(72- )

( 79)

T2TI

3

1

(22-24)

(25-27)

(28-32)

(33 - 35)

( 36-38 )

(39-41 )

(42 T

(43- )

( 50)

2

(51-53)

(54-56)

(57-6I )

(62-64)

(65-67)

(68-70)

~jTi r

(72- )

( 79)

Cluster Average
Egg Mass/m^:

Egg mass/m^ =

3 2 I egg mass/branch

T s ^m^/branch

Tree Branch

V Data to be taken on 1 egg mass/branch
* Length, width - completed in field by branch management.

** Area - completed in lab by grid method, record to 3 decimals.

Figure 1. - Data form for egg mass surveys of the western spruce budworm.

4

In addition, the length (mm) and the number of rows of eggs
was entered on the data form for 1 egg mass per branch. An
estimate of the percent unhatched eggs in that same egg mass
will be recorded in 1977, according to the following system:

Percent Unhatched Code

0 - 25%

25 - 50%
50 - 75%
75 - 100%

1

2

3

4

Branch foliage area will also be estimated in the laboratory
in 1977 by clipping branches into segments and arranging the
segments over a grid paper. Total area will then be
estimated directly from the grid coverage and recorded on
the data form. Comparison at a later date of area estimates
by the two methods (field measurements of length-times-width
versus laboratory grid paper) will enable selection of the
most consistent and accurate method for future use.

7. Sampling Precision - Based on previous information about egg
mass sample variability, it was agreed that an acceptable level
of precision at the entomological unit level would be a
standard error of 20 percent, 9 out of 10 times.

8. Data Form - An egg mass survey field data form (Fig. 1) was
designed for accurate data collection and easy transfer of
the data to computer cards or tape. One form accommodates
all data from one 3-tree sample cluster.

Ill . Description of Defoliation

Defoliation will be estimated in the field during 1977 on the
same marked 3-tree clusters where egg masses were sampled
in 1976, and at the same time that a new egg mass sample
is taken.

1. Branches - Four branches will be removed with pole pruners
from the midcrown of each marked sample tree. Branches
should be taken from opposing quadrants of the crown. Since

2 of these branches may be used as new egg mass sample branches
after current defoliation has been estimated, they must be at
least 70 cm in length.

2. New Shoots - Defoliation will be estimated from the first (from
the tip) 25 current shoots on each branch. Shoots should be

considered from alternate sides of branches; i.e., 25 from left
side of the first branch, then 25 shoots from the right side of
next branch. Branches which will not be used as an egg mass
sample may be most conveniently evaluated by actually removing
the shoots from the branch and placing them in an array on a
ground cloth.

V.

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3. Shoot Rating - Each of the 25 shoots per branch will be

evaluated individually and rated 1, 2, 3 or 4 to indicate the
degree of defoliation according to the following system:

Percent Defoliation Rating

0-25
25 - 50
50 - 75
75 - 100

2

3

4

Hand tally counters will be used to maintain a cumulative
rating tally as each of the 25 shoots are examined in turn.

For example, if the first shoot is about 40 percent defoliated,
the tally counter will be punched twice, if the next is about
60 percent consumed the counter will be punched 3 more times,
and so on until all 25 shoots have been examined. The
cumulative total of ratings for each branch will be a direct
percentage defoliation estimate for the branch.

4. Data Form - The defoliation survey data form (Fig. 2) will
accommodate all defoliation estimates from a 3-tree cluster.
Identification data, at the top of the form, is identical to
the previous egg mass sampling data forms.

Total defoliation ratings are entered directly for each branch
and the sum for all branches per tree divided by 4 to get a
tree average. Ratings for the 3 trees in a cluster are then
averaged to get a cluster average. The cluster average is
reduced by 12.5, which will convert the estimate to the midpoint
of the defoliation class, and reported as percent defoliation
for the 3- tree cluster.

IV. Data Analysis

Data gathered by the working group will be combined and analyzed
through facilities at the Fort Collins Computer Center (FCCC).
Regression models for egg mass density-defoliation will be generated
for each entomological unit sampled and for each Forest. Models
will be evaluated to determine whether or not the same model (s) will
predict defoliation within Regions or west-wide.

Regional personnel will be responsible for editing, coding, and
punching data prior to entering into the FCCC system. Summary tables
will be produced for decision-making purposes by Regional personnel
as soon as their data is entered into the system. Detailed
instructions for coding and editing of data, with examples of
expected summary tables, have been provided to Regional personnel.

V. Regression Analysis

The egg mass/defoliation relationships will be used to improve
existing prediction models. The models under consideration are linear.

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WESTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM DEFOLIATION SURVEY DATA FORM

6

Year T. R. S. Date Crew Name:

Region Forest Host Unit Cluster

(3 -4) (5-7) (8 - 9} " (10 -11) (12 - 13)

Survey Type Opt. 1 Opt. 2 Opt. 3

( 14 ) (i5- T J T '(

Tree

Branch

Defoliation — ^

Tree p/
Average —

Comments

T2T)

1

1

(22-24)

2

(25-27)

3

(28-30)

4

(31-33)

T34I

2

1

(35-37)

2

(38-40)

3

(41-43)

4

(44-46)

(47)

3

1

(48-50)

2

(51-53)

3

( 54-56)

4

(57-59)

Total :

1/ Defoliation = Total of ratings from
25 shoots per branch.

2/ Tree Average = I Defoliation

4

Average percent defoliation (cluster)

= I tree average - 12.5 = %

3

Figure 2. Field data form for defolation surveys of the western spruce budworm.

quadratic and other linearized forms by transformations. The
independent variable (X) is egg-mass and the dependent variable
(Y) is defoliation.

7

In standard linear regression three basic assumptions are made about
the relationship of Y and X:

1. For each selected X there is a normal distribution of Y from
which the sample value of Y is drawn at random.

2. The population of values of Y corresponding to a selected X
has a mean y that lies on a straight line.

y = a+ 3(x-3r)=a+3X.

3. In each population the standard deviation of Y about its mean,
a + 3X has the same value.

The mathematical model is specified by Y = a + 3X +^where^is
the random error term (Snedecor and Cochran, 1967).

Two considerations need to be addressed with the applications of the
egg mass and defoliation variables:

1. Independent samples are drawn from which the X and Y values are
determined.

2. The values of each X and Y are cluster level means based on 6
and 12 samples, respectively. A subsampling scheme is used by
averaging branches to trees and the three trees to the cluster.

The first consideration causes no great concern since, if we
draw a second sample, the values of X could in part be different,
but the corresponding Y values will still meet the three basic
assumptions.

The second situation poses a little more serious problem. The
values for both the X and Y variables contain a sampling error
component due to subsampling branches and trees. A basic
assumption in linear regression is the X is fixed and free of
measurement and/or sampling error. In many applications this is
not reasonable and is often violated. The biases are thought to be
negligible if the sampling errors do not exceed 10 percent. Usually
this occurs when the sample size for each observation is relatively
large and/or the data is clustered such that the variation is small.

The use of regression analysis must be done keeping in mind the
basic assumptions, and those not being satisfied should be
evaluated for the degree of bias. During the course of the egg mass
defoliation study, the effects of bias in regression estimators
will be examined.

VI. Reporting

Regional egg mass data and defoliation forecasts will be reported
as usual by Regional offices.

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8

Periodic progress reports on task force activities will be prepared
by FI&DM, MAG staff for distribution to all interested parties.

PROGRESS

In August 1976, egg mass sampling data were collected in a total of
57 entomological units in the five western Regions. Additional blocks
were sampled in R-2 and R-6 using slightly different methods and these
data are not included here. In R-4, many of the sample trees were
grand fir; these data are included but will not be combined with data
collected from Douglas-fir. Corresponding defoliation estimates will
be collected in 1977 from the same sample trees in each Region, at the
same time that another egg mass sample is taken.

I. 1976 Egg Mass Sampling Results

Statistics calculated for each entomological unit sampled (Tables
1-4) include:

2

1. Sample means {x) - average number of new egg masses per M foliage.

2. Standard error (SE) of the sample means.

3. Relative standard error - the standard error expressed as a
percent of the sample mean.

4. Optimum sample size (n) - an estimate of the number of samples
which would have been necessary in each unit to obtain the
stated precision goal of a relative standard error of 20 percent.

In 1976, we planned to take at least 10 samples in each entomological
unit sampled. More samples were to be taken in very large blocks.
Subsequent examination of the data showed that in more than half of
the units sampled, the number of samples taken was not adequate to
realize a sampling error within the desired limits (Tables 1-4). In
some cases, where population densities were low, sample variances
were so large that it would have been impracticable to take
sufficient numbers of samples. Calculation of optimum sample size,
after grouping the data by budworm intensity in each Region (Table
5),- indicated that a sample size of 20 would have been adequate in
about three-fourths of the entomological units. Consequently, sample
size will be increased for the 1977 season to a minimum of 20
samples per block; more, when the entomological unit is unusually
large.

Egg mass densities ranged from low (less than one egg mass per
square meter of foliage) to very high. Most low populations sampled
were newly discovered infestations where no control was currently
being considered. Forecasts of defoliation in 1977 from these
estimates of egg mass density were made by Regional personnel by
usual methods with established models.

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9

II. Data Management System

Specifications for a data storage and analysis system have been
developed and submitted to Regional personnel for review. Included
were instructions for coding and editing data, examples of output
summary tables expected from the system, and examples of prediction
models to be developed (Appendix 1). Detailed specifications for
data analysis are available upon request to interested parties.

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Table 1. Summary of 1976 western spruce budworm egg mass sampling in R-1.

10

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13

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ranges of egg mass density.

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REFERENCES CITED

16

Acciavatti, R. E. and D. T. Jennings. 1976. Locating western spruce
budworm egg masses with ultraviolet light. USDA Forest Service.

Note RM-313, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station,

Ft. Collins, Colorado. 3 p.

Anonymous. 1976. The western spruce budworm problem in Idaho and

Montana, 1976 - Status, impacts and control alternatives. Forest
Environmental Protection, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, Montana.

12 p.

Carolin, V. M. and W. K. Coulter. 1972. Sampling populations of western
spruce budworm and predicting defoliation on Douglas-fir in eastern
Oregon, USDA Forest Service, Res. Pap. PNW-149, Pacific Northwest
Forest and Range Experiment Station, Portland, Oregon. 38 p.

Carolin, V. M. and W. K. Coulter. 1975. Comparison of western spruce
budworm populations and damage on grand fir and Douglas-fir trees.

USDA Forest Service, Res. Pap. PNW-195, Pacific Northwest Forest
and Range Experiment Station, Portland, Oregon. 16 p.

Johnson, P. C. and R. E. Denton. 1975. Outbreaks of the western spruce
budworm in the American northern rocky mountain area from 1922 through
1971. USDA Forest Service, Tech. Rpt. INT-20, Intermountain Forest
and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, Utah. 144 p.

McKnight, M. E. 1968. A literature review of the spruce, western, and
2-year cycle budworms. USDA Forest Service, Res. Pap. RM-44, Rocky
Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ft. Collins, Colorado.

35 p.

McKnight, M. E., J. F. Chansler, D. B. Cahill and H. W. Flake. 1970.
Sequential plan for western spruce budworm egg mass surveys in the
central and southern rocky mountains. USDA Forest Service, Res.

Note RM-174, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station,

Ft. Collins, Colorado. 8 p.

Snedecor, George W. , Crochran, William G. 1967. Statistical Methods
Sixth Edition. Iowa State Press.

Williams, C. B., Jr., P. J. Shea and G. S. Walton, 1971. Population

density of western spruce budworm as related to stand characteristics
in the Bitterroot National Forest. USDA Forest Service, Res. Pap.
PSW-72, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station,
Berkeley, California. 8 p.

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17

APPENDIX

WESTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM EGG MASS - DEFOLIATION SURVEYS

Instructions for Coding and Editing Data

Survey Data Form.

Year

- (1-2)

Enter last 2 digits of current year.

Region

- (3-4)

Enter 2 digit number to indicate Region.

Forest

- (5-7)

Enter standard 3 digit number for specific
National Forest.

Host

- (8-9)

Enter 01 for Douqlas-fir. (P. menziesii).

02 for Grand fir. (A. qrandis).

03 for White fir. (A. concolor).

04 for Subalpine fir (A. lasiocarpa).

Unit

- (10-11)

Enter 2 digit number to indicate entomological
unit (block) sampled.

Cluster

- (12-13)

Enter 2 digit number to indicate cluster
(plot) sampled.

Survey Type

- (14)

Enter 1 for Egg Mass Survey.

Enter 2 for Defoliation Survey.

Option 1 -
Option 2
Option 3 -

For additional data as required by Regions.

(Defoliation Survey Data form only)

Coding Data

Eqq Mass

Survey Data

Form:

Tree - (21) Enter 1 digit number for tree in cluster.

Branch Length - (22-24) (51-53) Enter 3 digit number, for length
in centimeters of sample branch.

Branch Width - (25-27) (54-56) Enter 3 digit number for width in
centimeters of sample branch.

Branch Area - (28-32) (57-61) Enter 5 digit number for area in

square meters of sample branch, record to 3 decimals.

New Egg Masses

Number - (33-35) (62-64) Enter 3 digit number for total current
year egg masses per branch.

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(t ,?-:.li, yp; 5 j IV ,' t'.

18

Number of Rows - (36-38) (65-67) Enter 3 digit number for
number of rows of eggs in one egg mass per
branch.

Row Length - (39-41) (68-70) Enter 3 digit number for length
in millimeters of one egg mass per banch.

Unhatched Eggs - (42) (71) Enter 1 digit code for estimate
of percent unhatched eggs in one egg mass
per branch, either parasitized or non-viable.

Code Percent Unhatched

1 0-25%

2 25-50%

3 50-75%

4 75-100%

Optional Use - (43-50) (72-79) For additional data as required by
Regions.

Defoliation Survey Data Form :

Tree - (21) (34) (47) Enter 1 digit number for tree in cluster.

Defoliation - (22-24) (25-27) (28-30) (31-33) (35-37) (38-40)
(41-43) (44-46) (48-50) (51-53) (54-56) (57-59)

Enter 3 digit number for total cumulative defoliation
rating per branch.

Optional Use - (60-80) For additional data as required by Regions.

II. Editing Data Forms

All field-collected data will be entered on both forms in pencil .

All laboratory data (i.e., egg mass numbers, length, and width)
will be entered on forms in blue pencil .

All field and laboratory data must be edited for accuracy and
completeness. Corrections and verifications (i.e., atypical data)
will be made in red pencil on data forms.

A raw data listing will be generated from the computer to be used
for a final check on the data. Changes can be made in the raw
data at this time prior to summary.

Egg Mass Survey Data Form : Branch length and width are measured
in the field; branch area column must be completed in the laboratory
by the grid method.

III. Output Specifications

Level of output - For each entomological unit sampled, a Table 1
and 2 will be generated showing cluster (plot)
averages and standard errors. Correlations and
prediction models will be produced, as in Table 3.

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Table 2. DEFOLIATION SURVEY RESULTS

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A zero in the Identification field indicates data has been aggregated to a "combined"
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any combination for which data can be statistically combined.