Skip to main content

Full text of "NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) 20120003286: Orbital Debris Modeling"

See other formats


National Aeronautics and Space Administration 



Orbital Debris Modeling 


J.-C. Liou, PhD 

NASA Orbital Debris Program Office 
Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas 


Canadian Space Agency 
St Hubert, Quebec, Canada, 28 March 2012 


National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

Outline 

• The NASA OD Engineering Model 

- A mathematical model capable of predicting OD impact risks 
for the ISS and other critical space assets 

• The NASA OD Evolutionary Model 

- A physical model capable of predicting future debris 
environment based on user-specified scenarios 

• The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model 

- A model describing the outcome of a satellite breakup 
(explosion or collision) 



2/43 


JCL 



Orbital Debris Engineering Models 


3/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics :i Space Administration 

What Is an Engineering Model? 

• An OD engineering model is a mathematical tool 

- Designed to describe the current and near-future OD flux in the 
environment 

- Created primarily for spacecraft designers/operators to reliably 
assess spacecraft risk due to OD impacts 

- Has been used to estimate sensor flux for radar/telescope 
observers 

• There is a need to update the mode on a regular 
basis 

- New data 

- Better techniques 

- Changes in the environment 

- Need for expanded capabilities 



4/43 


JCL 


National , nr 'lautics :i Space Adir.ir stfedan 

History of the NASA OD Engineering Models 

• Pre-1990 - used a simple flux curve based mostly 
on model results 

• 1994 Space Station Freedom model and ORDEM96 - 
obtained Haystack radar data for debris in the 1 cm 
to 10 cm regime 

- Used simple equations to describe debris populations in 6 
inclination and 2 eccentricity groups 

• ORDEM2000 - used new techniques and improved 
computer capabilities to describe the LEO 
environment 

- Populations were derived from data and then processed to 
generate the model environment 



5/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics a ace Administration 

ORDEM2000 Debris Environment 

z 




6/43 


JCL 



National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

ORDEM2000 Graphical User Interface (GUI) 







National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

Highlights of the New Model - ORDEM 3.0 

* Expand data sources in time, altitude, and particle size 

- Altitude: 100 to 40,000 km (LEO through GEO) 

- LEO-GTO: Use SSN catalog, Haystack, HAX, Goldstone, STS windows/radiators to 
develop OD populations 

- GEO: use the MODEST GEO survey data to develop >10 cm populations 

* Utilize higher fidelity supporting environmental models 

- LEGEND replaces EVOLVE 4.0 

- Material density breakdown included 

- NaK droplet and degradation/ejecta product models added 

* Use Bayesian statistics to derive debris populations from data 

- Model uncertainties are included in the output 

* Maintain two analysis modes: spacecraft and telescope/radar 

- Debris fluxes through ‘igloo’ in pitch, yaw, impact velocity elements (in spacecraft mode) 
and through cylinder in range elements (in telescope/radar mode) 

* Update Graphical User Interface (GUI) 



8/43 


JCL 


N 


s' 


>n 


ORDEM 3.0 GUI Interface 




9/43 


JCL 









N 


s' 


>n 


Sample ORDEM 3.0 Model Output 



Directional Flux 

Yew: 2000 a- 6778.136 4- 0 000000 inc- Si 60 pwlkte ms ■ *10in 


Velocity Distribution 



Flux vs Yaw Angle 

YHr:2&S0 12EJ4,?S6 t ■ ine ■ KkOO parlitle siz» ■ 



Year = 2006 


1000000 

10000 

100 

u 

^ 1 

<N 1 

< 

| 0.01 

I 0.0001 

to 

0.000001 

IE-08 

IE-10 



10/43 


JCL 


N 


s' 


>n 


ORDEM2000 versus ORDEM 3.0 



Parameter 

ORDEM2000 

ORDEM 3.0 

Spacecraft and Telescope/Radar analysis 
modes 

Yes 

Yes 

Time range 

1991 to 2030 

2010 to 2035 

Altitude range with minimum debris size 

200 to 2000 km (>10 pm) 

100 to 2000 km(>10 pm) 

2000 to 33,000 (>1 cm) 

33,000 to 40,000 km (>10 cm) 

Model population breakdown 

No 

Intacts and mission related debris 
Fragments 

RORSAT NaK coolant droplets 
Degradation/ejecta 

Material density breakdown 

No 

Low-density(<2 g/cm 3 ) : fragments 
Medium-density(2-6 g/cm 3 ): fragments, degrad/ejecta 
High-density(>6 g/cm 3 ): fragments, degrad/ejecta 
RORSAT NaK coolant droplets (0.9 g/cm 3 ) 

Model cumulative size thresholds 

10 pm, 100 pm, 1 mm, 
1 cm , 10 cm, 1 m 

10 pm, 31.6 pm, 100 pm, 316 pm, 1 mm, 3.16 mm, 
1 cm, 3.16 cm, 10 cm, 31.6 cm, 1 m 

Population uncertainties 

No 

Yes 

File size 

16 MB 

1.4 GB 

Run time 

Seconds 

Minutes to hours 


11/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

Status of ORDEM 3.0 

• Model in final validation and verification process 

• Official release is scheduled for later this year 

- Will be available for download from the NASA Orbital Debris 
Program Office website 



12/43 


JCL 



NASA Orbital Debris Evolutionary Model 


13/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics :i Space Administration 

LEGEND Overview (1/2) 

• LEGEND, A LEO-to-GEO environment debris model 

- Is a high fidelity, three-dimensional numerical simulation model 
for long-term orbital debris evolutionary studies 

- Replaces the previous one-dimensional, LEO only model, 
EVOLVE 

- Includes intacts (rocket bodies and spacecraft), mission-related 
debris (rings, caps, etc.), and explosion/collision fragments 

- Handles objects individually 

- Is capable of simulating objects down to 1 mm in size, but the 
focus has been on >10 cm objects 

- Covers altitudes up to 40,000 km 

- Can project the environment several hundred years into the 
future 



14/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics :i Space Administration 

LEGEND Overview (2/2) 

• LEGEND, an orbital debris evolutionary model 

- Uses a deterministic approach to mimic the historical debris 
environment based on recorded launches and breakups 

- Uses a Monte Carlo approach and an innovative, pair-wise 
collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate future 
collision activities 

- Analyzes future debris environment based on user-specified 
launch traffics, postmission disposal, and active debris removal 
options 

- Ten peer-reviewed journal papers have been published about 
LEGEND and its applications since 2004 



15/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

Peer-Reviewed Journal Publications 

(LEGEND and LEGEND Applications) 

1 . Liou, J.-C. et a/., LEGEND - A three-dimensional LEO-to-GEO debris evolutionary 
model. Adv. Space Res. 34, 5, 981-986, 2004. 

2. Liou, J.-C. and Johnson, N.L., A LEO satellite postmission disposal study using 
LEGEND, Acta Astronautica 57, 324-329, 2005. 

3. Liou, J.-C., Collision activities in the future orbital debris environment, Adv. Space 
Res. 38, 9, 2102-2106, 2006. 

4. Liou, J.-C. and Johnson, N.L., Risks in space from orbiting debris, Science 311, 
340-341, 2006. 

5. Liou, J.-C., A statistic analysis of the future debris environment, Acta Astronautica 
62, 264-271, 2008. 

6. Liou, J.-C. and Johnson, N.L., Instability of the present LEO satellite population, 

Adv. Space Res. 41, 1046-1053, 2008. 

7. Liou, J.-C. and Johnson, N.L., Characterization of the cataloged Fengyun-IC 
fragments and their long-term effect on the LEO environment, Adv. Space Res. 43, 
1407-1415, 2009. 

8. Liou, J.-C. and Johnson, N.L., A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris 
removal in LEO, Acta Astronautica 64, 236-243, 2009. 

9. Liou, J.-C. et al., Controlling the growth of future LEO debris populations with active 
debris removal, Acta Astronautica 66, 648-653, 2010. 

10. Liou, J.-C., An active debris removal parametric study for LEO environment 

remediation, A dv. Sp ace R es. 47, 1 86y 876 L _201 1 . 



16/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics :i Space Administration 

Development History 

• History 

- 2003: Completed the historical component 

- 2005: Developed the “Cube” collision probability evaluation 
algorithm 

- 2006: Completed the future projection component 

- 2006: Added the postmission disposal mitigation options 

- 2007: Added the new capabilities to evaluate and identify 
individual objects for removal 

- 2008: Added additional options and output information for 
debris removal 

• Future Improvements 

- Increase the computational speed of the two orbit propagators 

- Validate model predictions for sub-10 cm populations 



17/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics :i Space Administration 

The LEGEND Code 

• LEGEND is written in Fortran 

- Includes ~1 8,000 lines of Fortran code 

• LEGEND runs on Unix/Linux-based workstations 

- Typical runtime: ~days to weeks 

• LEGEND is only available to a few well-trained 
Orbital Debris Program Office scientists 



18/43 


JCL 



National Aeronautics a Space Administration 

LEGEND Architecture (1/2) 



19/43 


JCL 






National Aeronautics a ace Administration 

LEGEND Architecture (2/2) 



stop 


20/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

LEGEND Supporting Models (1/4) 

• DBS database: a comprehensive record of 
historical launches and breakup events 

- Time, type, orbit, physical properties (mass, area), etc. 

- The database is updated annually 

• Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalogs 

- Daily records of the historical growth of the >10 cm 
debris population 

- Basis of empirical area-to-mass ratio (A/M) distributions of 
large breakup fragments 

- New files are downloaded from “Space Track” website daily 

• Future launch traffic model 

- Typically a repeat of the last 8-year cycle, as commonly 
adopted by the international debris modeling community 



21/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

LEGEND Supporting Models (2/4) 

• Atmospheric drag model 

- Jacchia atmospheric density model (1977) 

- Drag perturbation equations based on King-Hele (1987) 

• Solar flux (at 10.7 cm wavelength) model consisting 
of three components 

- Historical daily records available from the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction 
Center (SWPC) 

- Short-term projection provided by NOAA/SWPC - currently 
through 2019 

- Long-term projection is a repeat of a 13th-order sine and 
cosine functional fit to Solar Cycles 18 to 23 (1944 - 2010) 

• Similar to projections developed for long-term debris evolutionary 
models by other space agencies (ASI, UKSA, etc.) 



22/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

LEGEND Supporting Models (3/4) 

• GEOprop orbital propagator 

- Propagates objects near geosynchronous (GEO) region 

- Perturbations include solar and lunar gravitational forces, 
solar radiation pressure, and Earth’s gravity-field zonal (J 2 , J 3 , 
and J 4 ) and tesserral (J 22 , J 31 , J 3 3 , J 42 , and J 4 4 ) harmonics 

• Prop3D orbit propagator 

- Propagates orbits of objects in LEO and GTO regions 

- Perturbations include atmospheric drag, solar and lunar 
gravitational forces, solar radiation pressure, and Earth’s 
gravity-field zonal harmonics J 2 , J 3 , and J 4 

• Both propagators compare well with similar tools 
used by other space agencies 



23/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

LEGEND Supporting Models (4/4) 

• NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model 

- Describes the outcome of an explosion or collision 

• Fragment size, A/M, and AV distributions 

- Based on seven, well-observed on-orbit explosions, several 
ground-based impact experiments, and one on-orbit collision 



24/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

LEGEND Applications 

• LEGEND is the tool the NASA Orbital Debris 
Program Office uses to 

- Provide debris environment projection for the next 200 years 

• Based on user-specified scenarios (launch traffics, postmission 
disposal, active debris removal options, etc) 

- Evaluate the instability of the current debris environment 

- Assess the growth of the future debris populations 

- Characterize the effectiveness of the NASA, U.S., and 
international debris mitigation measures 

- Quantify the benefits of active debris removal (ADR) 



25/43 


JCL 


Effective Number of Objects (>10 cm) 


N 


s' 


>n 


Sample LEGEND Output 



LEO Environment Projection (averages of 100 LEGEND MC runs) 



1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210 

Year 


26/43 


JCL 



NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model 


27/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

What Is a Satellite Breakup Model? 

• A satellite breakup model describes the outcome of 
a satellite breakup (explosion or collision) 

- Fragment size, area-to-mass ratio (A/M), and AV distributions 

• The key to provide good short- and long-term debris 
impact risk assessments for critical space assets is 
the ability to reliably predict the outcome of a 
satellite breakup 

• There are two options to develop the model 

- Theoretical 

- Empirical 



28/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

NASA Breakup Model for Explosions 

* Based on the fragment distribution of 7 well-observed 
on-orbit R/B explosions 

* Fragments are described by a single power law 
distribution 

* Explosions are classified into 6 different groups with 
different scaling factors (sf) assigned to their fragment 
distribution 



N cum=Sf x6xL c - 16 

N cum : number of fragments > L c , 
L c : characteristic length in (m) 


29/43 


JCL 


Cumulative Number 


National Aeronautics a ace Administration 


Size Distribution of Explosion Fragments 




Characteristic Size (m) 


30/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

NASA Breakup Model for Collisions 

* Based on ground-based impact experiments and one 
well observed on-orbit collision (P78/SOLWIND) 

* A catastrophic collision occurs when the ratio of impact 
energy to target mass exceeds 40 J/g 

* Fragments are described by a single power law 
distribution 



N eum = 0.1 x (M tot ) 0 - 75 x L C ' 1J1 

N cum : number of fragments > L c 
Lc: characteristic length in (m), 

M tot = m t ar + m proj (catastrophic) or 
Mtot = m pr oj+ m proj x V 2 /(km/sec) 2 (non-catastrophic) 


31/43 


JCL 


Number of Fragments with Mass > m 


National Aeronautics a ace Administration 


Mass Distribution of Collision Fragments 




Mass (kg) 


32/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics :i Space Administration 

Improving the NASA Breakup Model 

• The NASA satellite breakup model has been 
adopted by major international space agencies for 
various OD environment studies] 

• As new materials and new construction techniques 
are developed for modern satellites, there is a need 
to conduct additional ground-based tests and use 
the data to further enhance the collision model 



33/43 


JCL 


Ni 


n 


Cosmos 2251 Fragments 



0.25 


0.2 


~o 

Q) 

^ 0.15 

re 

E 


CD 

Si 

E o.i 


0.05 


0 


A/M Distribution of Cosmos 2251 Fragments 


NASA Breakup Model Prediction 

SATCAT Data (17 September 2010) 



-3 - 2.5 -2 - 1.5 -1 - 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 


Logio(A/M m 2 /kg) 


• The A/M distribution of the Cosmos 2251 fragments matches well with the NASA 
model prediction 


34/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics a ace Administration 

Iridium 33 Fragments (1/2) 



-3 - 2.5 -2 - 1.5 -1 - 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 

Log 10 (A/M m 2 /kg) 

• The A/M distribution of the Iridium 33 fragments appears to be systematically higher than 
the NASA model prediction 

• Lightweight composite materials were extensively used in the construction of the vehicle 



35/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics a ace Administration 

Iridium 33 Fragments (2/2) 




-3 - 2.5 -2 - 1.5 -1 - 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 

Log 10 (A/M m 2 /kg) 


• The A/M distribution of the Iridium 33 fragments is approximately a factor of 3 higher 
than the NASA model prediction 


36/43 


JCL 


National Aeronautics a ace Administration 

7 Micro Satellite Impact Tests (2005-2008) 


• The project is a collaboration between NASA ODPO 
and the Kyushu University in Japan 



Size 

(cm) 

M t (g) 

Mp (g) / 

Dp (cm) 

V 

w imp 

(km/s) 

EMR 

(J/g) 

Impact 

Angle 

0501 H 

15 

740 

4.03/1.4 

4.44 

53.7 

_L 

0502L 

15 

740 

39.2 / 3.0 

1.45 

55.7 

_L 

0701 L 

20 

1300 

39.2 / 3.0 

1.66 

41.5 

_L 

0702L 

20 

1283 

39.2 / 3.0 

1.66 

42.0 

a 

0703L 

20 

1285 

39.2 / 3.0 

1.72 

45.1 

_L 

0801 F 

20 

1515 

39.2 / 3.0 

1.74 

39.2 

_L 

0801 R 

20 

1525 

39.3 / 3.0 

1.78 

40.8 

_L 



37/43 


JCL 


National Aeronaut :1 Space Administration 

Micro Satellites 
• Target satellites 

- Cube-shaped, with 6 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic (CFRP) outer walls and 
3 Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic (GFRP) boards inside 

• Direction of CFRP fiber: (0°, 90°) 

• Thickness of the front and back CFRP walls: 2 mm 

• Thickness of other CFRP and GFRP walls: 1 mm 

- Components: lithium-ion batteries, transmitter, solar cells, power circuit 
board, communication circuit board, on board computer, antenna 



angle bar (alminum) 
metal spacer 

bottom layer (CFRP) 

command & data 
handling circuit 

angle bar (alminum) 



antenna 


inner layer (GFRP) 
angle bar (alminum) 

top layer (CFRP) 
power supply circuit 

wireless radio 
angle bar (alminum) 
metal spacer 


42, 42, 42, 72 mm 



38/43 


JCL 



National Aeronautics a ace Administration 

Ground-based Impact Experiments 





39/43 


JCL 








N 


s' 


>n 


Impact Fragmentation 



• Target: Micro satellite covered with Multi-Layer 
Insulation (MLI) a solar panel on one side 


- Objective: characterize satellite, MLI, and solar panel 
fragments 



40/43 


JCL 


N 


s' 


>n 


Sample Measurement Data 



No 

Characteristic 

Label 

Shape 

x[m] 

y[m] 

z[m] 

Mfkgl 

1 

CFRP+Aluminum 

Medium 

Plate Square 

0.28284 

0.28284 

0.03031 

2.014E-01 

2 

CFRP+ Aluminum 

Medium 

Plate Square 

0.28284 

0.28284 

0.02186 

8.873E-02 

3 

CFRP 

Low 

Plate Square 

0.28284 

0.28284 

0.00167 

6.263E-02 

4 

CFRP+Aluminum 

Medium 

Plate Square 

0.28284 

0.28284 

0.06762 

7.567E-02 

5 

GFRP+Metal 

Medium 

Plate Square 

0.28230 

0.19110 

0.08777 

5.075E-02 

6 

CFRP+Ahminum+Metal 

Medium 

Cube Complex Oblong 

0.34520 

0.14032 

0.05755 

6.910E-02 

7 

CFRP 

Low 

Plate Square 

0.14846 

0.13875 

0.02689 

2.192E-02 

8 

CFRP 

Low 

Plate Square 

0.14953 

0.14678 

0.01391 

1.668E-02 

9 

CFRP 

Low 

Plate Oblong 

0.20080 

0.02619 

0.00406 

1.234E-03 

10 

Aluminum 

Medium 

Cube Complex Oblong 

0.15790 

0.03335 

0.02576 

1.464E-02 



41/43 


JCL 





National Aeronaut :i Space Administration 

Upcoming Ground-based Impact Test 

• A collaboration of NASA ODPO, AF/SMC, and 
University of Florida 



SOCIT 

Proposed Test 

Target dimensions 

46 cm (dia) x 30 cm (ht) 

50 cm 

Target mass 

34.5 kg 

50 kg 

MLI and solar panel 

No 

Yes 

Projectile material 

Al sphere 

Al sphere 

Projectile 

dimensions/mass 

4.7 cm diameter, 150 g 

5 cm diameter, 176 g 

Impact speed 

6.075 km/sec 

7 km/sec 

Impact Energy to Target 
Mass ratio (EMR) 

78 J/g 

86 J/g 



42/43 


JCL 


Questions? 



43/43 


JCL